Fantasy Baseball Advice

Recently, I realized I like my steals like I like my women, cheap. Sure, there’s girls out there that know which spork to eat their Hamburger Helper with, but real value is found in girls that can have fun in a bar with sawdust on the floor and Jimmy Buffett playing on the jukebox. Now this doesn’t mean I’m turning my nose up at Kate Bosworth if she shows up at my door in sweatpants, carrying some takeout Chinese. Same goes for fantasy baseball. Steals is a category I tend to neglect on draft day in March. The only pure speed guys I’ll consider, where they are drafted, are first round gems like Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez. I’m not suggesting you punt steals, because that would put too much pressure on your other categories. (Just like if you neglect getting laid.) Instead, I opt for Grady Sizemore, Corey Hart or Chase Utley-types. Guys that give you everything, including ten to twenty steals. In one league where I drafted Carl Crawford, when I saw his power still wasn’t coming this year, I traded him for Braun two months ago. But when you don’t draft a Juan Pierre-types, you’re usually hurting a bit for steals and need some cheap ones. Anyway, here’s some cheap steals that you might find on your waiver wire:

Chris Dickerson - Plus speed, some power and a womb-full of strikeouts. In NL-Only leagues, he should be owned already or picked up. In deep leagues, he’s an add on need. Dickerson will sit (or you should sit him) against lefties. His splits are weird guy cheerleader bad.

Denard Span - A near .400 OBP warrants consideration in all leagues. He is the starter even with Cuddyer’s return and he’s entrenched in the leadoff spot.

Carlos Gomez - As he starts to hit the waiver wire in a bunch of leagues, I find myself liking him more. In a few leagues where I need steals and have the room, I’ve grabbed Gomez off waivers and have substituted him in on days that someone on my team sits or short schedule days. He may lose playing time to Cuddyer so that might make him step up his game or not, but if it’s cheap it can’t be that bad.

Lastings Milledge - Mentioned him last week as a guy who has a chance to be the quietest 20/20 in recent memory. His steals do come at a price to your average.

Mike Cameron - See one half centimeter above.

Jerry Hairston Jr. - About to return from hamstring injury. His vacay was so extended and with the nature of his injury, I’m not that high on him having a huge amount of value upon return, but if he’s there you take the flier, cause that’s what you do.

Joey Gathright - He reminds me of this nasty couscous my friend used to eat for lunch. The tartar on your tongue tasted better than this stuff. So why did he eat it? Because it was cheap. Joey Gathright is nasty couscous.

Cesar Izturis - Cheap’s one thing, but Cesar Izturis? Oy, his name should be just tsuris (Yiddish Word of the Day). Whatever, Jackie Mason, he’s .429 with 4 steals in the last 7 games. SAGNOF!

Emmanuel Burris - How awesome would it be if Burris and Fred Lewis were near the cage and Bochy said, “Hey, Emmanuel, Lewis, come here.” And they responded in unison, “Sure thing, Mr. Papadapolis!”

1 game requirement leagues rejoice! Alex Rodriguez replaces Jeter and gets shortstop eligibility! Too bad it’s probably not going to happen. Girardi said it hasn’t even been discussed, no matter how alluring Ensberg would be at 3rd. Oh, well. We can dream, right? Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday:

Johnny Cueto - He left down 2-1 and he still looked as impressive. 8Ks against zero walks is the makings of a great pitcher. The Bill Hall homer was a no doubter, but the first run was all Adam Dunce’s fault.

Jimmy Rollins - Left the game with an ankle injury, but he should be back in the lineup tomorrow.

Jair Jurrgens - He didn’t look bad considering Kelly Johnson’s got the range of a one-legged turtle.

Oliver Perez - Dude looks good. 18 wins and 200Ks? Looking like it could happen.

Matt Garza - Headed to the DL. He’s got some kind of radial nerve damage. If you have him, I’d grab someone, maybe…

Brian “The Brain” Bannister - He looked unhittable when facing Arod. Against everyone else? Hittable.

Mark Reynolds - I’m fingercuffed and it feels so… eh.

Joey Gathright - Absolutely no one’s team should be lagging badly in steals if Gathright is sitting on your waivers.

Dice-K - Well, I don’t have him on any team, but he looked as good as last year’s advertisement.

Detroit Tigers - The city is a slum that should be condemned; the team looks worse.

Yorvit Torrealba - Doesn’t look good.

Justin Speier - Hafner just made Shields the interim closer.

Miguel Tejada - I told you he’d be pissed off that people were mentioning ‘roids and his name.

Joey Votto - Yesterday, Dusty said this, “You know Votto’s going to have more power and productivity, but, right now, Hatteberg is a better hitter.” Then he plays Votto and he goes 2-for-3. The eff I know what’s going in Dusty’s mind.

Eugenio Velez - This guy’s like Chone Figgins’s faster brother. He tried to turn a single up the middle into a double, deciding very late to stay at first, then he stole second, then he ran to third and was thrown out. He’s like a black Forrest Gump. Tim Flannery, the Giants third base coach, needs a sign that reads, “Velez, stop!”

Jake Westbrook - Pitched another good game. You never know where a career year might come from.

These are the players you want to drop, add or simply hold onto for your fantasy baseball roster.

DROPS

Every Baltimore Oriole not named Nick Markakis, Ramon Hernandez or Brian Roberts - This team looks atrocious. Millar’s best is behind him, and he was never that good, shortstop is a black hole, Mora is mediocre and will get injured soon, forget Adam Jones for now, I don’t even like Luke Scott anymore as a deep sleeper.

Ronny Paulino - Doumit looks to be getting the starts against righties. Overall, there’s mostly righties. Look elsewhere.

ADDS

Mark Lowe - Second in line (presumably) Sean Green (not the Jew that retired) then Eric O’Flaherty. Then again, Miguel Batista got the save the other night, so, ya know, don’t invest too heavily.

Jair Jurrjens - He’s still very raw, but I liked what I’ve seen so far. I would take a flier, if there’s room.

Brian Bannister - The other day, when asked about Bannister, I said he was like last year’s Maddux. I stand by that. There is a place for that on certain teams.

Ryan Church – The Mets are outfield poor. In deep leagues, you have to take a look because of the lineup he’s in.

Angel Pagan - Speaking of the Mets, and speaking of deep leagues, NL-onlyers take a look. He’ll be in left until Alou returns.

Joey Gathright - Bourn, Carlos Gomez have to make room — more cheap steals.

Blake DeWitt - In very deep leagues, keep it in the back of your mind that DeWitt was considered the best hitter in the 2004 draft.

Franklin Gutierrez, Billy Butler, Andre Ethier, Melky Cabrera, Nate McLouth, Lastings Milledge - There’s been a lot of discussion on this site about these six fifth outfielders. So with Rudy Gamble’s permission, I’m just going to reprint what he had to say in the comments of this post.

Billy Butler - Best average and RBI of the bunch. Got valuable experience last year. And 1B potential. Only downside vs. the rest is no speed.

Nate McLouth - Best SB and Run potential of the bunch. Enough pop for 15 HR. Enough speed for 30 SB. AVG won’t be great.

Lastings Milledge - Most upside of the group but I’m just not sold on any part of his game. Not a good base stealer. No minor league history of plus power.

Melky Cabrera - By no means a great player but he’s young, has 2 years experience, playing for a running manager in a great lineup, and w/ more job security than the guys below him on this list. I think he ends up 75/15/75/15 with a respectably .280 average.

Franklin Gutierrez - No plus power or speed in his minor league history. I think he may fall short of Melky in all 5 categories. Might have playing time cut into. Grey’s note: I don’t see his playing time cut and I like FraGu’s (<—forced nickname!) promise. I see 70/20/80/.270/20. And maybe someone in the Indians’ brass has been reading Razzball, because Gutierrez moved up to the sixth spot the last two days. Just sayin’.

Andre Ethier - His stats for the past two years are just bleh. 15 HR power and no speed. Probably second to Butler on projected AVG. And there’s no doubt Pierre reclaims his job if Ethier slumps.

Scott Hairston - That’s right, I’m adding another name into the six fifth-outfielder-mix. Hairston never got a fair shake in the desert, but he’s got good pop.

Jose Lopez - If you have an erection for longer than four hours after you pick up Lopez, you should go see a doctor. But he’s hitting number two on the Mariners. So, well, there’s that. Honestly, he’s young and he’s started off hot.

HOLDS

Pedro Martinez – He’s going on the DL for 4-6 weeks. I think it’s probably going to end up closer to 6 weeks because of his age. Then he’ll have to rehab. I could see dropping him, if you have someone already filling your DL slot, but I’m going to hold onto Pedro for now.

Juan Pierre - You drafted him for steals. He’s still going to end up with thirty to forty. The Pierre Situation with Ethier hasn’t been decided yet. You need to hold pat. There’s still 25 more weeks in the season. Chill, people.

Tom Gordon - I hate him with great fervor, but we need to see Lidge come back and be healthy before he moves to a “Drop.”

Assuming you have already drafted your teams for this 2008 fantasy baseball season, these are the players you want to drop, add or simply hold onto for your fantasy baseball roster.

DROPS

Cameron Maybin – He’s gone. Might be in the minors until rosters expand.

John Patterson – After being released by the Nationals (how embarrassing!), he’s going to get another shot with the Rangers. Ugh. You don’t want any part of him, unless you’re into tall, long-haired hippies that are injury-prone.

Scot Shields – I love middle relievers, but he has forearm issues. Not worth it. Grab Justin Speier if you want to handcuff K-Rod.

Kelvim Escobar  – If you have a spot on your DL, then I guess hold onto him. If no room, drop his injury-prone ass, he might be done for the year.

Jay Bruce – Dusty Baker’s not playing him this year.

Homer Bailey – You’re waiting for magic in the NL-only leagues. Other leagues, look elsewhere. (Aside, if his name was John Smith, you wouldn’t have even drafted him. He’s got a great name!)

Evan Longoria – Braun was a special case last year. The Rays are cheap bastards and may call Longoria up in June or may wait even longer. I’m sorry, but you need someone else.

Chase Headley – Not happening here either. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets the call sooner than Longoria for two reasons, 1) Padres aren’t cheap bastards 2) Edmonds and Giles aren’t long for this world. Headley just needs to prove he can play some outfield.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – It’s with a heavy heart I report you should drop Salty. He’ll probably be up sooner rather than later, so you might have to pounce to get him back, but a catcher in the minors does nothing for you. Come back soon, Salty… (I am thrilled I won’t have to spell his name for a little while.)

ADDS

Carlos Villanueva – Brewers sent Vargas packing and handed his rotation keys over to Villanueva. Vargas really wasn’t that bad of a pitcher and he was having a decent spring. This says what you need to know about Villanueva’s talent.

Jayson Nix – If you need a 2nd basemen, he’s got the job in Colorado. I’d expect a decent value here. Think a young Marcus Giles. (BTW, Giles got old fast, right? I guess steroids do that.) For Nix, say 10/10/.270.

Edinson Volquez and/or Johnny Cueto – They’re going to be a hot add everywhere (in fact, I’ve already pimped them once) and the hype might exceed the results, but they’re worth trying on for size if you need a starter.

Matt Diaz – I’ve been telling you to draft him for three months now. The Braves are going to play him and he can hit .320 with some pop.

Carlos Gomez – He recently had a cramp in his hamstring and Punto took over for him, but the injury’s not serious. Not sure why he’s suddenly off everyone’s radar, but he is. He shouldn’t be. He can steal 50 bases, though he might strikeout 130 times. The Twins are committed to him and they’re a running team. This is another reason why I told you to not reach for steals in your drafts. Juan Pierre’s old; Carlos Gomez is not.

Joey Gathright – More speed if you need it.

Eugenio Velez – And yet more speed. Aren’t you pissed you drafted Juan Pierre, Willy Taveras or any of those other all-speed schmohawks?

Chris Snyder – If you punted catcher and you’re sick of looking at Pudge or Varitek on your roster, take a flier on the D-Backs backstop. He’s having a super-sized spring training.

Austin Kearns – I dislike Austin Kearns as much as the next person, and he’s burned me on many occasions, but he’s only 27. His road average last year was .301. The new Nats park might play like Coors East. You gotta take that chance. Just don’t drop anyone too precious.

Nate McLouth – He went 13/22 last year and he has a decent eye. He’s not going 40/40 with 150 RBIs, but you can do worse off the waiver wire.

Tom Gordon – Lidge is on the DL to start the season. Why not grab some free saves?

HOLDS

Josh Fields – He was sent down, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Crede gets traded or Fields ends back up in the majors very soon.

Brad Lidge – He was put on the DL, but he wants to play. He’ll be fine as far as the knee goes.

Manny Parra – He had a rough time of it in spring training, but he’s got a job for as long as Yovani’s on the DL, Parra will get a shot. Here’s hoping it goes well.

Andy Pettitte – He’s still having back issues, but he’ll still be good value for some wins.