Fantasy Baseball Advice

Ryan Doumit went from sleeper to 2nd tier fantasy catcher last year after he managed to take a year off from his Glass Joe impersonation that dogged him throughout 2006-2007 (2006 = 89 games missed w/ hamstring issues, 2007 = 26 games missed with wrist, and then 20 games with ankle).  Actually, he missed 27 games last year with thumb (20), concussion ( 5 ) and the flu (two separate days), so even when he’s healthy he’s “merely a flesh wound” away from the DL.  He’s now out for 8-10 weeks.  Punt!  (Or stash him on your DL if it’s empty.)  I’d look at Baker, Salty, Shoppach or Hundley, all those names depend on league depth, of course.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ian Stewart – Has played 5 games in OF (3 started).  He’s 5 games played away from OF eligibility in Yahoo! and ESPN.  He’s already eligible in Yahoo! for 2B and is 8 games away from ESPN eligibility.  With the way he’s hitting (and Seth Smith and Spilborghs are slumping), he might get OF eligibility by the end of April.  As for 2B, don’t count on it.  He’s lucky to get 1 start a week there so maybe you’re talking sometime in late June – unless Barmes gets hurt (what are the exacta odds on Helton and Barmes being on the DL at the same time by end of May?)

Brandon Wood – Called up yesterday.  Wood has the oh-so-coveted superfecta of eligibility.  He should be picked up in all 12 team leagues and deeper.  I’d put his projections at 17/10, .250.  There’s upside on the power and speed and downside on the average.  Granted, I’m a big fan of Wood in the right situations, especially if you’re trying to start a fire.

Freddy Sanchez – Dirty Sanchez hit a HR yesterday off Anibal Sanchez, while Gaby Sanchez wishes he could’ve seen it.

Manny Parra – 4 IP, 5 ER, 4 Ks.  See he does strikeout a guy an inning! And walk a guy an inning.  And give up a run every inning.  I hate to defend this crappy of a performance, but there was a play that knocked Weeks out of the game that should’ve been the 2nd out of the 4 run 1st.

Kenshin Kawakami – 5 IP, 2 ER.  I watched this game because I had both team’s pitchers.  Let’s just say I wanted one to get the Win and one to get the Loss and it didn’t work out how I wanted.  Kawakami looked sloppy at times and other times overpowering with junk, if that’s possible.

Brian McCann – Fitted with new contact lenses and should be fine.  Now is it me or don’t you think when you’re paying someone almost $4 million for 6 months of work you’d have an eye doctor on call to check on contact lenses?  He missed games because of this mishegoss?  What the eff?

Brandon McCarthy – 6 IP, 3 ER. Still giving up too many homers.

Franklin Morales – Left in the 3rd with shoulder pain.  Um, not good.

Aaron Laffey – 7 IP, 1 ER.  Two decent outings with him keeping the ball down.  He gets the Twins next time out.  They couldn’t hit a home run if you spotted them to 2nd base.

Nelson Cruz – Hit his 6th HR yesterday.  Could hit 35 HRs and bat .260.  Cust kayin’.

Cameron Maybin – First HR yesterday.  That’s so Maybin!

Oliver Perez – 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER.  He will give you severe heartburn.

Clayton Kershaw – 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER.  Now you buy him.  See how that works.

Rickie Weeks – Day to day.  Chipper, “Hey, me too!”

Toddy Coffey – Expected to get the saves while Hoffman is out.  Hoffman’s due back this weekend though.  Hastanueva!

Prince Fielder – Batting .163 on the year.  He’s killing me portly.

Matt Cain – 6 IP, 2 ER and the win.  I have a sidebet with myself that he has a better season than Lincecum.  I may welch.

Jake Peavy – 6 IP, 6 ER.  Peavy didn’t take his malaria pills and came down with a bad case of the Renterias.

Jay Bruce – Homered in his return to play.  Sonavabench!

Joey Devine – Will miss the season.  Left side of the mouth says, “Fore,” the right side of the mouth says, “Gone.”

Ryan Braun – 5-for-5, 2 HRs.  Rumors after the game were swirling that Moyer gave up both blasts so Braun would agree to a date with his granddaughter.

Mark Reynolds – HR yesterday.  Someone’s pulling away with the Davis/Reynolds HR crown.

Jarrod Washburn – 7 IP, 2 ER, 9 Ks.  He’s been dynamite so far.  I wish I had him in my AL-Only league, but I wouldn’t trust him in any mixed league short of a 15 teamer.

Ryan Freel – To the DL with head trauma.  He said he was fine and could’ve avoided the DL.  Farney thought better of it.

Frenchy’s back, Jordan Schafer’s going to hit 161 home runs (accounting for one rainout, of course) and McCann’s going to win the MVP.  Oh, and Lowe’s winning the Cy Young.  Unanimous.  Spring has sprung and baseball’s back.  It’s a good time to be alive.  Aren’t you glad you didn’t eat any peanuts in the last three months?  They’re poisonous, ya’ll.  (It’s a wonder Jimmy Carter’s still going strong.  He is a superhero.)  Right now, I feel like putting some tilapia on the grill, an Olde English in an oversized cozy and kicking back for the next six months while the sounds of baseball dance in my head.  Oh, and win all my fantasy baseball leagues; that would be nice too.  The number one thing you don’t want to do in the next few weeks is overrate anything you see.  You’re not winning your league in the first few weeks, but you can sure as heckfire lose them.  As inviting as Jordan Schafer seems right now, don’t drop Milton Bradley for him.  Even if Milton does the devil’s work.  Jordan Schafer’s an intriguing name in deep leagues.  Just don’t jump out the window until you see how real the fire is.  On the other hand, don’t ignore what goes on these first few weeks.  This is when The ‘08 Nadys (<–great band name) emerge.  Anyway, here’s what I saw this weekend for fantasy baseball:

Joey Devine – Aching Joey Devine is out for 60 days.  Punt!  Not worth holding a “potential” closer who may not be back for a while.

Gary Sheffield – Omar Minaya must’ve heard Sheff was raised in a Latin district of Tampa.  Not worth looking at in anything but the deepest of leagues.

Ichiro Suzuki – Bleeding ulcer, out until April 15th.  Endy Chavez will be batting leadoff on opening day.  Good to see the Mariners have a Plan B.  See Razzpoll on the bottom right for possible reasons behind Ichiro’s ulcer.

Derek Lowe – 8 innings, 0 runs.  Had a 2.88 ERA last April and has started off this one on a good note.  Next start, Washington.  Yum.

Josh Anderson -  Will get the nod for the Tigers in the opening today.  Has little power, but speed to burn — SAGNOF.

Brandon Morrow – Will close from the onset of the year.  If you think you’re being cute with Aardsma or Mark Lowe or Batista, you’re not.

Elijah Dukes – 4th outfielder to start the season.  Was on the Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sell on Friday as a Sell.  I wonder if Dukes is angry.

David Freese – Just when you think you’ve got LaRussa figured out, he plays Brian Barden at third in the Cards first game.  It’s only against lefties… supposedly.

Jeff Francoeur – HR yesterday.  Could this be the start of something?  

Kelly Shoppach – Getting time behind the plate in the first game with Garko sitting.  Encouraging sign, except for Garko owners.

Brian Wilson – Boo-boo healed. Will get saves to open the season.

Matt Lindstrom – Ready to go for opening day.  Aren’t we all?

B.J. Ryan – No velocity, no cry.  He’s the closer to start the season.

Mark Reynolds/Justin Upton – Sitting tomorrow against the “tough” righty, Aaron Cook.  Let’s hope for a speedy collision between Chad Tracy and Eric Byrnes.

Brett Myers – This time on the other side of a beating.  Was on our risky pitcher post.  Am I worried?  Not really, but I didn’t go near him in any draft either.

Mike Gonzalez – Our first Kazaam! of the season.  It’s good to be back.

It’s time to take our beginning of the month look at all the fantasy baseball closers.  Here at Razzball we are always evolving like Saaphyri’s alliance on I Love Money 2, so I’ve added pluses and minuses in parenthesis for the movement a closer has had since the last time I went over them.  For example, if B.J. Ryan fell twelve spots from 10 to 25, he has a parenthetical negative fifteen next to his name.  If there was no change, no parenthetical.  I also removed the team they close for, because if you don’t know that, I’m not sure how much I can help you.  More than anything else, the closer list is constantly changing.  So you kinda need to follow along to my daily roundups, but if you like to have things all in one place, here ya go.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan (+1) (Jesse Crain)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (-1) (Takashi Saito, Hideki Okajima)
3. Brad Lidge (Ryan Madson)
4. Mariano Rivera (Damaso Marte)
5. Francisco Rodriguez (J.J. Putz)
6. Joakim Soria (Joel Peralta, Kyle Farnsworth)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

7. Jonathan Broxton (Hong-Chih Kuo, Cory Wade)
8. Bobby Jenks (+1) (Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Scott Linebrink)
9. Kerry Wood (+3) (Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez, Rafael Betancourt)
10. Jose Valverde (+3) (LaTroy Hawkins)
11. Chad Qualls (+3) (Jon Rauch, Tony Pena)
12. Heath Bell (+4) (Mike Adams)
13. Brian Fuentes (-2) (Jose Arredondo, Scot Shields)
14. Kevin Gregg (+1) (Carlos Marmol)
15. Frank Francisco (+6) (C.J. Wilson)
16. Matt Capps (+2) (John Grabow)
17. Francisco Cordero (-9) (David Weathers, Jared Burton)
18. Mike Gonzalez (+2) (Rafael Soriano)
19. Brad Zielger (Santiago Casilla, Joey Devine)
20. Brian Wilson (-3) (Jeremy Affeldt, Bob Howry)
21. Joel Hanrahan (Saul Rivera, Steven Shell)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Pena in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

22. Matt Lindstrom (+2) (Leo Nunez, Scott Proctor)
23. Huston Street (+6) (Manny Corpas, Taylor Buchholz)
24. Troy Percival (+4) (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour)
25. B.J. Ryan (-15) (Scott Downs, Jeremy Accardo, Jesse Carlson)
26. Jason Motte (-1) (Ryan Franklin, Kyle McClellan)
27. George Sherrill (-1) (Chris Ray)
28. Brandon Morrow (+2) (Miguel Batista, Chad Cordero, Roy Corcoran, Mark Lowe)
29. Carlos Villanueva (-2) (Trevor Hoffman, Todd Coffey, David Riske)
30. Fernando Rodney/Brandon Lyon (-6) (Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya, Axel Foley)

Losing Gary Sheffield from your fantasy baseball team is about the best thing that could’ve happened to you if you owned him. This isn’t really a big fantasy story as far as Sheff goes.  He was a decrepit ex-roider.  (He was a great hitter to watch in his prime and it’s sad when great players devolve into nomadic, expensive NVORPS (negligible value over replacement players).  For every neat and tidy retirement like Ripken and Gwynn, there seems to be at least three like this.) The best thing that could happen is he ends his career at 499 homers.  Instant karma’s gonna get you.  What this does do is open up a spot for someone else.  As I said in the comments yesterday, “The Thames runs through it.”  Damn, I’m pithy.  I’m like Charles Nelson Reilly on The Match Game pithy.  RIP, C N R, you were one of a kind… Until me.  Marcus Thames is a source of 20 – 25 HRs and a .240 average.  Not bad for AL-only but not remarcusable.  He usually only plays against lefties, so I’m not sure if Sheff’s departure gives him that many more ABs.  He’s a masher to watch.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in spring training for fantasy baseball:

Joey Devine – Now Aching Joey Devine is off to see Dr. Freeze.  Ugh.  This never turns out well.  Casilla is Ziegler’s handcuff for the time being.

Scott Lewis – Gave up 10 runs in less than 4 innings.  As I said last week when he got the starting job, you don’t really want him.

Justin Duchscherer – Surgery went well.  A stitch without a hitch!  (Alliteration in lieu of wit.)  He’ll be back by June.  Wake me when I care.

Emmanuel Burriss – Webster won the 2nd base job!  The cherubby 2B stole 51 SB in a minor league season and SAGNOF is better at MI than OF.

David Murphy – As I said in my fantasy baseball 300, platoon this doode with Byrd.

Alexi Casilla – Why does every starting MI in the AL Central have a Russian first name?  The Tigers need Edgar back to round out the Perestroika.  Casilla’s hitting over .400 in spring training and he stole 50 SBS at A/AA in 2006 then 11 in a short stint with the Twins in 2007.  But he only stole 7 last year in 385 ABs with the Twins.  At MI, it doesn’t really matter if you need steals.

Alexei Ramirez – Fellow comrade was back in the lineup and again in the eight hole.  Diamonds are from Sierra Leone and Ozzie’s from Mars.  I’m not going to stress this yet, but if it continues into the season, Ozzie and I will be having words.

Russell Branyan – Having a nice spring.  When Branyan grows up, he wants to be Jack Cust.

Huston Street – Announced he’ll find out by Thursday if he’s the closer.  I think he gets over that last… *pinkie to mouth* Hurdle.

Ryan Braun – Left the game yesterday with a bruised thumb.  X-rays turned up negative.  I hear that means it’s positive.  Not sure why they can’t just say that.

Dexter Fowler – Made the club.  Keepers and NL-Only’ers rejoice.

Gaby Sanchez – He (she?) was optioned to The Big Easy.  The opening for Bonifacio appears to widen.

Jeff Keppinger – Big trade came in off the wire yesterday.  Keppinger to the Astros.  Now that’s how to build a team up after losing Ausmus.  We were rooting for Bill Bialystock from Houston’s Double-A affiliate in Corpus Christi to get promoted and platoon with Blum.  Now that’s a platoon that can produce!

Geoff Blum – Seems pretty puzzled that he’s in the running for opening day 3rd baseman, saying “There’s an outside chance. I’m not going to believe it until I see my name in the lineup or they give me the OK…”  Geoff added, “I can’t believe my wife has sex with me.  I don’t believe she’s going to let me until I have it halfway in.”

Coming to the Braves outfield this summer, Jordan Schafer — The outfielder to have when you’re drafting more than one.  I picked him up immediately in my sucky fantasy baseball league.  He sounds blahtastic! Maybe 10/15/.250 aka every outfielder that sits on waivers all year that has one good game and you contemplate picking up until you think better of it.  Some have compared Schafer to Sizemore, but he’s much greener.  Though he does know his way around striking out.  He’s jumping straight from Double-A where he K’d 88 times in 297 ABs.  CHONE and ZiPS project averages near .240.  He may turn into a Sizemore, but for 2009 he’s more of a Sighsmore <– pun!  He’s worth a flier in an NL-Only league.  But then again, so is Cha-Seung Baek.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in spring training for fantasy baseball:

Dexter Fowler – Razzball was abuzz yesterday with the news Fowler might make the team.  He really should, and Helton should retire so Ian Stewart can play, but whatever.  Fowler is the total package like Lex Luger.  He can run, mash and had the opportunity to go to Harvard.  He could go 12/30 and hit .285.  Then he’s a 30/30 guy in a year or two.  Keeper leagues should be all over him.  I have Spilborghs on a few teams, but I’d happily move on from him to see Fowler get the chance.  I grabbed Fowler in my Spilborghs leagues for backup until this shakes out.  I’ll drop whoever doesn’t get the job.  Fowler or Maybin? I still want Maybin for now, because Maybin is assured time, i.e., the Marlins play their prospects.  If Helton was on the Marlins, he would already be DH for an AL team.

Joey Devine – Aching Joey Devine is having a real hard time staying healthy.  Looks like Ziegler will start the year as the A’s closer.  He could hold the job for a while depending on effectiveness and Devine’s injury-prone-itude (Made Up Word Of The Day!).

Alexei Ramirez – Was hurt sliding into home, but didn’t seem too serious from the latest news I heard.  Now ease back on the hustle, Alexei.  You’re going to give me a heart attack.  Everyone’s calling you an Alfonso Soriano clone, but there’s no need replicate his injury-prone-itude.  Please don’t turn into this year’s bust.  Please.  I’m begging you now.

James McDonald – Some of you noobs (I called you a noob! Natch!) are going to think it’s Christmas in March, but I wrote a James McDonald sleeper post already.  How’s dem apples?  Delicious, I know.

Dustin McGowan – Jays unsure of his return.  Hey, that makes two of us!

Travis Hafner – Hit first homer of spring and he’s batting .227.  Good to see he’s rounding into mid-season form.

DeWayne Wise/Chris Getz – White Sox one and two hitters?  Alexei batting 8th?  Fields 9th?  Somebody, please help him!  Ozzie Guillen’s gone crazy!

Jason Motte – LaRussa said Motte would see some save chances.  Way to clear that up!  I think Franklin still gets involved in this mess.

J.D. Drew – Will bat fifth for the Sawx.  I think people underrate Drew.  He’s not a bad 4th to 5th outfielder.

David Purcey – I’m not buying into his solid spring training numbers.  I call shenanigans.

B.J. Ryan – Gaston’s talking about using Downs for some saves, but reading between the lines tells me he might just be goading Ryan to man up.  Either way, Downs is the handcuff you want as a Ryan owner.

David Delucci – Sticking with the newly-established David theme, David Delucci goes to the DL.  Lates, Double D.  Ben Francisco and Shin-Soo Choo just got a bump — not a Studio 54 bump.

Emilio Bonifacio – Could be leading off for Florida.  Or Maybin.  Or Hanley.  Or Amezaga when he’s healthy.  I doubt Bonifacio sticks in leadoff, but SAGNOF.  I also really hope to one day see Alfredo Amezaga and Emilio Bonifacio in an Olive Garden commercial.  Now that’s Italian!