Fantasy Baseball Advice

It has not been a good year for the Joneses. Jacques Jones is headed for retirement, Marion Jones went to jail and Ed “Too Tall” Jones banged his head on a doorway. And none of them will even acknowledge their brother from a white mother, Todd Jones, who was offcially replaced as closer on Sunday. I know what you’re saying, “But Todd Jones had just under a 3 K/9 ratio! Life’s unfair!” Yup, it sure is for everyone but Fernando Rodney, who Leyland announced would take over the Tiger’s closer job. (Leyland also announced he’s returning to filtered cigarettes now that Jones is gone.) Do I think it will last with Rodney? Sure, unless the Tigers trade for Fuentes or Street. Fuentes has closing experience, but Rodney can be just as dominant. Street has experience, and is just as injury prone as Rodney. So six of one, half dozen of another. Also, Zumaya is not without his issues as he had right triceps tightness and had to leave Sunday’s game. As for Todd Jones, drop him. He was useless when he had the job. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

John Grabow - Gave up 2 home runs yesterday. I still think he’s first in line for saves, but he could be traded too (or just not covert any saves or just not get any saves to convert). You might need to look at Tyler Yates and Denny Bautista, as well. Honestly, I grabbed Grabow and that’s as deep as I’m going for Pirates saves. These other schmohawks are not being picked up by me, except in the deepest of leagues where I really need saves.

Brian McCann - Out with a mild concussion from The Flying Hawaiian going all Tonga Kid on McCann and giving him a flying headbutt.

Shane Victorino - HR yesterday. Now has 8 HRs (Alexis Rios has 8 HRs, as well).

Billy Butler - Doesn’t he sound like a character from Clue? It was Billy Butler with the candlestick in the library. Anyway, since the All-Star break, Butler has 4 HRs, 14 RBIs and 2 moobs.

Jack Cust - HR yesterday. Will now hit three HRs this week, walk seven times and strikeout ten times. Hot week ahead!

Eric Chavez - He says he could be done as a third basemen. He could’ve said this in 2006.

Manny Ramirez - Says he’ll accept a trade out of Boston. They should trade him to the Nationals and then see how quickly he accepts. Honestly, I couldn’t believe the amount of people falling for Manny’s shizz back in March when everyone was saying Manny’s going to have a career year because of a contract. In December of 2007, I said Manny’s done trying. He’s been done. It’s fine. I just wish people would stop falling for the same nonsense.  Now I know it’s against a high-ranking baseball commandment to say anything against Gammons, but he was even reporting about Manny’s off-season conditioning. Listen, Manny’s off-season conditioning involves Xbox, Chuck E. Cheese and Mama’s Family DVDs.

Nomar Garciaparra - Left the game with knee irritation. After the game, Nomar said he might have injured his knee the previous night when he forgot the safety word with Mia.

Mike Jacobs/Derrek Lee - 22 HRs/60 RBIs and 17 HRs/63 RBIs, respectively. Granted, Lee (Buffalo) is not the negative on average like Jacobs, but Lee is only batting .296. Cust kayin’.

Scott Hairston - 17th HR yesterday. Later this week his bro, Jerry, returns. The brother battle between the Hairstons and the Uptons is almost as lopsided as The Von Erichs and The Bushwackers.

Ubaldo Jimenez - Besides having one of the best first names in baseball, he also put together a solid July. Last year, he had a solid July then got progressively worse as the year went on. Caveat emptor, for those in Latin America.

Johan Santana - 7th career complete game. CC Sabathia almost had 7 complete games in July.

Hank Blalock - 2-for-3 and he’s going back to Texas. If he can stay healthy (Yes, that’s a big if. BTW, how come people don’t say it’s a small if something is very probable? Like, “I guess we’ll get donuts if Dunkin’ Donuts, a store that never closes, is open. Yes, that’s a small if.”), Blalock could be in for a big week.

Jeff Samardzija - Got the save yesterday after Marmol threw 1 2/3 innings on Saturday. I suppose he could get more saves if Wood continues to have blister problems, but I think Marmol will out-save him 4 to 1 and if Wood’s out-saving Marmol… Well, you get my drift.

Clayton Kershaw - Got his first major league win. The only thing is, I would start just about anyone at Dodgers Stadium against the Nats.

Marcus Thames - Got one hit yesterday. Guess what it was? Okay, so you platoon Thames and Joyce just like Leyland is doing. They’ll probably hit 45 HRs combined. What, you don’t want 45 HRs?

Javier Vazquez - Was roughed up again on Sunday. It’s of little consolation to his owners (which I’m not, suckas!), but Vazquez’s K rate is fine and his BABIP is at .335, which means he’s been unlucky — sorta like his owners, which I’m not, suckas!

Kyle Lohse - Drop the H.

Brad Ziegler - Set major league rookie record with 27 scoreless innings to start a career. Interesting factoid, he hasn’t given up a home run since he switched to pitching sidearm, 128 1/3 innings ago. Uninteresting factoid, his Mom’s name is Beth.

Hey boys and girls, it’s time to look at all of the fantasy baseball closers again. Now is this every closer? Yes, I just said that. Dur. Why aren’t you listening? Or am I being obtuse? Also this is the majority of setup men. Is this all the setup men? Ugh. It’s a majority of the setup men. You’re what we Italians call a stunod. Now don’t get all heated. My grandfather called me a stunod for twenty years of my life. Now I write a blog. Hmm… I need therapy! So we’re going to break the closers up into three tiers as we always do. The first tier, they’re the girls that won’t date your stunod ass. The second tier, they’re the girls that will date your stunod ass. The third tier, they’re the girls that keep calling your house trying to talk to your wife about the affair you had with them while you were in Buffalo for the weekend. If that’s not clear, wait until your tenth year of alimony and you begin to contemplate how much you would’ve saved just by having some crackhead kill your ex. Anyway, here’s all the closers and most of their setup men for fantasy baseball purposes, of course:

NO-BRAINERS

This tier is filled with a bunch of closers that are too good to be true. They seem indispensable, but they’re not. They just have an allure over you that scares you to trade them away. Set them free and if it’s meant to be… Or some shizz. I don’t know, why don’t you read the Hallmark blog if you want girly nursery rhymes? These closers are as safe as closers get, so trade them away.

1. Joe Nathan, MIN (Matt Guerrier, Dennys Reyes, Jesse Crain)
2. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima)
3. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA (Justin Speier, Scot Shields, Jose Arredondo)
4. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Kyle Farnsworth)
5. Brad Lidge, PHI (J.C. Romero, Ryan Madson)
6. Takashi Saito, LAD (Jonathan Broxton)
7. Joakim Soria, KAN (Ramon Ramirez)
8. Kerry Wood, CHI (Carlos Marmol)

BRAINERS

Greed, Gluttony and Envy are three of the seven deadly sins. Then throw in coveting your neighbor’s closers and masturbating three times a day and fantasy baseball is going to send you straight to hell, unless you focus your energies on these closers, the Brainers. These closers seem risky, but end up paying dividends.

9. Jon Rauch, WAS (Luis Ayala)
10. Billy Wagner, NYM (Duaner Sanchez, Aaron Heilman)
11. Francisco Cordero, CIN (Jared Burton, David Weathers)
12. Brandon Lyon, ARI (Tony Pena, Chad Qualls)
13. Brian Wilson, SAN (Tyler Walker)
14. Mike Gonzalez, ATL (Blaine Boyer, Will Ohman, Rafael Soriano)
15. Jose Valverde, HOU (Doug Brocail)
16. George Sherrill, BAL (Bunch of Schmohawks)
17. Damaso Marte, PIT (Tyler Yates)
18. Trevor Hoffman, SDG (Heath Bell)
19. Kevin Gregg, FLA (Renyel Pinto, Matt Lindstrom)
20. Todd Jones, DET (Joel Zumaya, Fernando Rodney)

BRAIN FREEZE

Saves are wonderful. I love saves! I have Fuentes, Morrow, Kobayashi, Wilson and Franklin on one team! They just combined for two-thirds of an inning and 17 earned runs. OW! Brain freeze! Use the following closers at your own risk.

21. Huston Street, OAK (Santiago Casilla, Alan Embree, Keith Foulke, Joey Devine)
22. Salomon Torres, MIL (Eric Gagne, Guillermo Mota)
23. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Scott Downs)
24. Brian Fuentes, COL (Taylor Buchholz, Manny Corpas)
25. C.J. Wilson, TEX (Eddie Guardado, Joaquin Benoit)
26. Brandon Morrow, SEA (Sean Green)
27. Ryan Franklin, STL (Jason Isringhausen, Chris Perez)
28. Masa Kobayashi, CLE (Rafael Perez, Rafael Betancourt)
29. Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, J.P. Howell, TAM (Al Reyes, Troy Percival)
30. Octavio Dotel, Scott Linebrink, Matt Thornton, CHW (Bobby Jenks)

Looks like Chipper Jones is headed to the DL. In other news, water is wet, taco diarrhea burns and astronaut ice cream is delicious. Couple of things spring to mind. First, steroids lead to injuries. Before 2004, Chipper played in at least 150 games for eight years in a row. Yes, that’s right. He wasn’t always injury-prone. It just feels that way. Why doesn’t anyone question Chipper about steroids? Is it because he’s white (or Caucasian for the PC gang…. Or posse, if gang’s too edgy for you)? Second, Chipper will challenge .400 and just barely qualify for the batting title. This will result in a bunch of crazy old coots (ala Buzz Bizzinger) coming out of the woodwork to say things like, “Hogwash! Williams had 150 more at-bats!” To this I say, I agree. I hope Chipper doesn’t hit .400. I hate that Bonds owns the home run record, that Titantic beat Star Wars for #1 box office and that Joey Chestnut beat Kobayashi. Third, Chipper seems racist to me. Just like Lance Berkman. This is completely unfounded. Just a gut call. I might even be held libel for saying it, but I’m partially insane, so there’s that. My craziness is why you’re here reading. If I were boring, I’d yawnstipate you and you’d move on. What does this mean for fantasy baseball? Nothing really. Just some things I needed to get off my chest. Anyway, here’s some things I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Roy Oswalt - Might be headed to the Disgraceful List a few months after he should’ve. A month or so ago, I said Oswalt would pitch through injury because that’s just how he’s built. (This site is easily searched so I’m going to leave it up to you guys to find that link. Trust me, I said it. I have a photographic memory for nonsense.) Oswalt’s not Chipper Jones, I’ll tell you that. He’ll keep pitching if he can. Since he came out of the game, my non-professional opinion is that Oswalt may hit the DL.

Chad Cordero - Out for the season. As far back as April 3rd (Yes, I found that link myself, smart ass.), I told you Rauch would get more saves and you should unload Cordero, whether you listened is on you. You do what you do; I do what I do and we meet somewhere in the middle. Mapquest it!

Juan Pierre - Hit the DL for the first time in his career. He’ll be out long enough to drop him in most leagues (4-6 weeks). The one guy who held Ethier this whole time just said this, “Yes!” Everyone else just said, “Whatever.”

Eric Byrnes - He aggravated his hamstring. (Or is it reaggravated? And if it’s aggravated then when does it become reaggravated? After the second aggravation? Third? This shizz will keep me up!) I told you to go after Byrnes, now that I see it will be a recurring injury, get out before you’re *pinkie to mouth* burned. Not worth it, trade him for 50 cents on the dollar.

Troy Percival - Wow, big night in fantasy baseball, right? Right. So he (re)aggravated his hamstring strain too. (Maybe… and this is a longshot, but bear with me…. Maybe Byrnes had a Percival voodoo doll and vice versa, but they made a pact to not use each other’s voodoo dolls. Then when Byrnes felt a tweak in his hamstring, he thought Percy betrayed him, so he went into his locker and stuck a needle in Percival’s voodoo doll hammy. Or not. I’m speculating.) Wheeler takes over for Percy until he returns.

Felix Hernandez - Right when the injury happened I said he’d be out at least 15 days. Everyone else said he’d make his next start. I called bullshit. Now he’s headed to the DL. Are you a doctor, Grey? No, I saw the injury and F-Her was carried off the field. That means DL for a last place team’s ace in June. Dur.

Brian Fuentes - Kazaam!

Josh Willingham - 2 HRs, been getting some “Would you get with this or would you get with that? I think you’ll get with this, because this is where it’s at” questions regarding Willingham. So here goes, Willingham over Thome, Swisher, Hermedia, anyone on the A’s, Headley, Bruce, Lyle Overbay, Chris Davis, Swisher, Per Djoos, Snyder, Billy Butler, Frenchy and Fred Lewis. Willingham not over Tulowitzki, Doumit, Kouzmanoff, Gordon, Dye, Parra, any closer currently getting saves and Corey Hart. This list was paid for by the committee to get Willingham on your team.

Mark DeRosa - 2 HRs, 6 RBIs and the start at third as Aramis took a family vacay. Must be something about the last name Ramirez because I could totally see Aramis and Manny getting along like two peas in an empanada.

Jhonny Peralta - 5-for-5, HR, 3 doubles, 3 RBIs, superflouous “H.”

Jim Thome - Hit another home run. I mentioned yesterday that he was getting picked up by me and he did.

Matt Thornton - Got the save yesterday instead of Jenks. Think it might have been just a matter of Jenks being overworked. I’m trying to get to the bottom of this. Stay tuned… (Or simply tell me what’s going on. That might be nice for a change.)

Joel Zumaya - Got the save in Jones’s stead. Just another case of the regular closer being overworked. Or is it? Yes, it seems that way. But it could mean Zumaya might get eight to ten saves from this point on just to “keep everyone fresh,” which is also known as  “not letting Jones blow too many games.”

Aaron Harang - 7 IP, 8 Ks, 3 ER, 1.14 WHIP. Now that looks like a Harang line. I’ll take that from now until October with a few wins mixed in.

Roy Halladay - Threw a four-hit, shutout against the Mariners. Jeffrey Loria, sick of trying to make the Marlins bad and failing, announced he would buy Seattle’s team, move them to Florida and call them the Marliners. First move: Rehire Bill Bavasi. Where did you go so terrifically wrong with Sexson that I went so horribly right with Jorge Cantu?

Dave Bush - Pimple-faced teenager runs in front of your car, “Watch out, Mister! Dave Bush is falling back to earth!” You stop short and Dave Bush falls in front of your car.

We realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere.

To help remedy this, we will try to occasionally feature locally blogged advice/insights/humor/etc. that will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway).

Send tips to info@razzball.com. Enjoy…

Drunk Jays Fans and Tao of Stieb - Did you think that Yanks and Sawx blogs had the monopoly on AL East expletive-laded rants about their team? Think again, you fuckin’ hoser! Local POV on Wells’ injury, J.P. the GM, David Eckstein (Tao has some great nicknames for him), the resurrection of Eric Hinske, and the 2008 Jays season.

The Nationals Enquirer - Looks like Ryan Zimmerman has joined us and Philip Hughes in the blog world. According to Nationals Enquirer, his hitting has improved since he started the blog. I’m not surprised as I’m having a career softball season this Spring after starting to write for this blog. (Someone send a memo to Barry Zito). I just hope blogging doesn’t hurt Ryan’s wrist like Guitar Hero hurt Joel Zumaya’s forearm.

Sons of Steve Garvey - This well-manned Dodger blog calls out the dead weight in the LA Dodger outfield. Hint: it’s not the one with the Frenchy last name…

Sliding Into Home - Does it make you an old fart if you think Joba Chamberlain shouldn’t celebrate after striking out a schlub like David Delucci? Sure feels like it. FYI, Grey and I like to chest bump after a particularly good blog post.

Sox Machine - A White Sox fan ponders the future of Gavin Floyd - unstoppable force for good or unsustainable good fortune?

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Detroit Tigers preview.)

Detroit Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski wasted no time in working to get his club back into the playoffs in 2008. After Detroit’s surprise run to the World Series in 2006 and disappointment in missing the postseason in 2007, Dombrowski did not even wait for the Boston Red Sox to lose the rosy glow of their championship before he completed his first acquisition of the offseason. Trading two major-league-ready prospects and a young center fielder to Atlanta, Dombrowski brought Edgar Renteria to Detroit so he could move shortstop Carlos Guillen from shortstop — where he was a liability — to first base — where he should be able to hold his own. But that was just the start. While his next move brought Jacque Jones from Chicago to platoon in left field with Marcus Thames, giving the Tigers quite a bit of production at that corner, Dombrowski’s acquisitions at the Winter Meetings in December fired a shot across the bow of the elite teams of the league. A little prodding by one of Dombrowski’s assistants revealed Florida would entertain a trade of superstar third baseman Miguel Cabrera to the Tigers, so long as A-list prospects Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin were shipped to southern Florida. A little bit of negotiating by the sides resulted in former Cy Young candidate Dontrelle Willis‘ name being mentioned as well. And in just a day, young stars Cabrera and Willis were headed to The D, while fans of the Tigers’ minor league organization were left scratching their heads
wondering who remained. It was clear: the Tigers are being built to win now. With Willis’ contract already extended and Cabrera’s agent currently discussing a deal with the Tigers, winning for years in the future may not be out of the question either. In a short two months and some-odd days, the Tigers announced to the league they were an elite team.

The offense is compared to the great Yankees’ Murders Row — but that might be getting a bit too excited. Some analysts believe the Tigers could join the rare air of scoring 1,000 runs in a season. That, too, may be getting a bit too far ahead. But no matter, Detroit should have the best offense in the American League Central Division and quite likely the major leagues. If Gary Sheffield is able to come back from minor shoulder surgery and pick up near where he left off last season, the Tigers could expect to score 900-plus runs for the year. Sheffield will hit third in the lineup, just behind 20 double, 20 triple, 20 home run and 20 steals center fielder Curtis Granderson and the patient, high-average hitting Placido Polanco. Behind Sheffield will be 2007 A.L. batting champion Magglio Ordonez, with possible future Hall of Famer Cabrera falling all the way to fith in the batting order. He will be followed by Carlos Guillen, Renteria and at eighth, a Pudge Rodriguez who claims to be looking for more pitches this year and benefitting from a tough offseason workout. Jones or Thames may help set the table at ninth. For left-handed pitchers, this lineup is a nightmare. But with high OPS posted against righties from top-to-bottom as well, Detroit will score its fair share of runs this season.

The defense may not be the best in the league, but it should be good enough to give the Tigers a shot to win on most days. Justin Verlander leads the rotation, followed by Kenny Rogers, who hopes to come back from an injury-plagued year, Jeremy Bonderman, who also hopes to come back from an injured pitching elbow that caused his ERA to skyrocket in the second half, and some combination of Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson. Willis will boucne back from a disastrous 2007 in Florida, as he no longer needs to be the ace and does not have to rely on pinpoint placement of the baseball — which he did not provide in 2007 anyway. Robertson, too, hopes to bounce back from a season that saw him placed on the disabled list for fatigue. Obviously, the Tigers must have a healthy season from four of the five starters if they hope to compete at the highest level, as the minor leagues provide little depth and little trade bait.

Relief pitching has been the spring training story to watch — aside from the Brandon Inge saga, which will be detailed later in this story. Todd Jones feels he does not have the strength in his arm he needs. As a closer, he frightened Tigers fans already. If he cannot serve up anything but gopher balls, Detroit will need to make a move fast. Setupman Fernando Rodney will start his season on the disabled list as he struggles with tendinitis. The other setup man, Joel Zumaya, required surgery on his throwing shoulder after a box fell on it while he helped his father move valuables away from their house as the San Diego fires approached. He hopes to be back by midseason and appears to be progressing well toward that goal. This leaves Detroit manager Jim Leyland scratching his lighter to find late-inning pitching. Denny Bautista, acquired from Colorado in the offseason, may help. He is known for his control issues, but has so far appeared to have put that past him in spring training. The final bullpen spot may go to Aquilino Lopez, or it may go to Yorman Bazardo, who is also sore this spring. The lefty relievers will be Tim Byrdak and Bobby Seay, who both had fine showing in 2007. Meanwhile, Jason Grilli and Zach Miner appear to be the long relievers, though Leyland at one point thought Miner could be a closer.

In the field, Detroit looks be have broken even with last season, or improved slightly. Cabrera is a step back from Inge’s terrific third-base defense. But Renteria should be a step above Guillen, who consistently suffered from sore knees and could not make the plays he could in his earlier years. Guillen has played first before — including during the 2006 postseason run — and should provide as good or better defense than Sean Casey did in 2007. Gold glove second baseman Polanco did not make an error in 2007. The outfield is led by Granderson in center field. He should receive gold glove looks. Just tune in to SportsCenter to see why. Left field and right field are nothing special, but Thames/Jones and Ordonez are at least capable.

The Inge soap opera will be one to follow this season. He neither wants to provide the role of super sub, which he can do quite well as a guy who can play 8 positions, nor does he want to backup Rodriguez as catcher. He asked for a trade, then backed off that, though the Tigers are currently looking for a deal that would benefit both Inge and themselves. That may come closer to the trade deadline as a contending team might find itself in need of third base help. Until then, fans hope he remains quiet and does what is asked of him.

In summation, this is a team capable of winning the World Series in 2008, but due to its age and lack of depth could be a disappointment as well. As long as it only absorbs one or two key injuries during the course of the season, it should return to the postseason in any case, where anything can happen.

Some Tigers to think about in your fantasy draft:

Miguel Cabrera — third base — He should actually not see dropoff, as Comerica Park has become a much more hitter-friendly ballpark. He’ll score runs and have plenty of RBI opportunities, as well as hit his 30 homers.

Carlos Guillen — shortstop/first base — he will play first base this season, but he should remain eligible for shortstop in most leagues and provides a decent start if you miss out on the top tier performers at the position.

Magglio Ordonez — Probably — OK, honestly won’t — can’t repeat his 2007 season, but he should hit for average, drive in a good number of home runs and get gobs of RBIs in a lineup you can’t pitch around him.

Curtis Granderson — I wouldn’t take him too early, but if you are a manager who likes to platoon, put him in your lineup any day the Tigers play a right-handed pitcher and you’ll get great performance. Probably not 20 triples this season, but plenty of steals and runs to go with a decent number of home runs and RBIs.

Pudge Rodriguez — In all reality, you don’t want to grab him as your starting catcher at this point in his career. But if you’re looking for a backup with some potential to surprise, I think he will improve over his 2007 season. He believes he can continue catching for a few years, and he will be a free agent after this season. He has something to prove, and I for one think you don’t bet against him.

Justin Verlander — Not a top tier starting pitcher — he doesn’t get enough strikeouts for that — but he’ll get his 17 or so wins and post a low WHIP and ERA.

Jeremy Bonderman — In the leagues I’ve participated in, he has gone way too late. If Bonderman has come back from his injury healthy, and that does appear to be the case, he’ll have near 200 strikeouts again while posting an ERA around 4 and at least 15 wins.

Dontrelle Willis — Take a late-inning stab. I think he’ll surprise you.

Denny Bautista — Could get some holds, should be available in the last round if you need that stat, and if he has found his control, could end up closing if Jones falters due to his age.

Kurt runs Mack Avenue Tigers and, inspired by writing this piece, wrote a piece that looked at the fantasy prospects for every player expected to make the Tigers’ 25-man roster.