Fantasy Baseball Advice

There’s a few people who are going to understand what FIP is.  The people who scored a 2400 on the SATs.  Or 1600 if you’re old school, literally.  The people who use a Bunsen Burner to light their pipe.  The people who know what is in a Twinkie.  You know, real smart people.  Me?  I just know that Twinkies are delicious.  Luckily, there’s people out there that figure out these highfalutin numbers like FIP and give ‘em to us plain and simple.  Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher who has an ERA of 2.75 but his FIP is a 6.75.  A -4.00 difference.  That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up.  So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)

Kevin Millwood – -2.06 difference.  Surprise, surprise or no surprise, no surprise.  Either way, Millwood has been getting lucky on balls in play, leaving a ton of guys on base that should be scoring and, before yesterday, hadn’t been striking out anyone.  The summer months in Arlington + Millwood = Uh-oh.

Matt Cain – -1.72.  Seems like this guy’s been a sell high guy since his first start of the season.  Here’s the thing, stranding almost 90% of baserunners is SS Minnow-type numbers.  Hold him, and you may end up looking like Gilligan.

John Lannan – -1.71.  Few strikeouts, plenty of walks, Nats pitcher, lucky on balls in play… I think you’ve heard enough.

Johnny Cueto – -1.54. He’s cut his walks this year, which is a good sign, and his FIP is only 4.10 so that’s not terrible.  He’s young and will probably tire as the season goes on so he’s a decent sell candidate, but I wouldn’t move him for an Intellivision, unless old school video games are your thing.

Trevor Cahill – -1.18.  He’s in a similar boat as Lannan.  No Ks, plenty of walks, a team that doesn’t score many…  Blech.

Rick Porcello – -1.14.  He may have a correction in July and August, then, because of his age, he’ll probably get shutdown towards the end of August.  Or he’ll have starts skipped.

Zach Duke – -1.03. His FIP is only 4.21.  You’ll take that mark on the year from Duke and like it.

Joe Saunders – -1.02.  I’ve been saying not to buy this guy since the preseason, so I don’t need to say more, right?

Ted Lilly – -1.02, which is a 4.06 and he’s about a 4 ERA pitcher so that’s not surprising. With his Ks, he’s well worth owning.

Yovani Gallardo – -1.01.  It bummed me out to see him on this list.  He’s pitching closer to a 4 than a 3 ERA.  Luckily, he’s K’ing over 9 batters per nine.  I’d put that in my pipe and light it with my Bunsen Burner any day of the week.

Josh Hamilton hits the DL and could be out for two months.  I’m not one to say I told you so, but… Man did I call this one!  Schadenfreude, snitches!  Sorry, I had to get that off my chest.  Really, no one could’ve saw this coming…. Except me!  Sorry, hiccup.  Of course, Hamilton’s injured.  He was abusing his body like Pookie for five years of his life.  Hey, great that he’s snuffed out the glue sniffing, but that takes a toll on your body.  Look at Courtney Love.  She’s like 40 years old and she looks older than the 75-year-old guy who turns on the lights for your bowling lane.  Then you throw in the fact Hamilton can’t take painkillers for fear that he might relapse so he’s stuck taking Airborne… Bleh!  All adds up to trouble.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Edinson Volquez – Yesterday, I said, “I wouldn’t be surprised if Volquez ends up back on the DL.” And that’s me quoting me breaking bad news to you again!  Turns out the finger numbness was elbow tenditis.  Pitchers with arm troubles yadda yadda yadda.  It ain’t good, guys and two girls that I know of that read Razzball.  (The Ladies love the ’stache!)  Volquez is not a buy low.  I hope you all listened when I said not to draft him this year.  The Reds are spinning it so it sounds optimistic, saying he should be back in two weeks.  Um, wasn’t that what they said two weeks ago?

Zach Duke – 7 IP, 1 ER vs. the Mets.  Kinda surprised the Mets were able to find nine guys for Duke to face.

Milton Bradley – Fun for all ages strained his calf running to first.  Umpires around the league won’t have to look over their shoulder for the next few days.

Jesus Flores – Gonna be out for the season.  Bummer as the Flores Fan Club was just picking up steam with Randy Flores joining.

Troy Glaus – Swinging a bat next week.  Wasn’t he just about to get shutdown for the season?  Anything to get in the papers… in the papers.  If you have an open DL spot, I’d stash, but expect nothing.

Jordan Schafer – Was demoted for Gregor Blanco.  This one hurt me hard in my Razzball league.  Schafer was leading the world in sucking the first two months of the season.  I’m going to look at Chris Burke next.  Hopefully, Burke sees enough time to prove his invaluability.

David Murphy – 2-for-4, one steal.  I grabbed Murphy in one deep league to fill in while Beltran digs on the swine.  I don’t recommend Murphy for 12 team leagues yet, but deeper leagues can look at him.

Joakim Soria – Returns from the DL.  Not soon enough as Cruz began to sputter.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Left the game with a shoulder injury.  Get well soon, Asdrubal.  Your name makes me giggle.

Evan Longoria – Left the game with a tight hamstring. He’s day-to-day, and should be fine after Tony Parker draws him a nice hot bath.

Randy Wells – 7 IP, 1 ER, and a no-hitter into the bottom of the 7th.  I wonder if he’s related to Dan Haren.

Derrek Lee – HR yesterday. Now has his average up to .253.  I know, big whoop!  But, and I might be alone on this island, I think he’s got a month or two hot streak in him.  Not an insane .400/40 homer-type streak, but a hot one nevertheless.

Roy Halladay – 9 IP, 4 ER, 14 Ks and 133 pitches.  He looks like Howdy Doody, but he’s a machine.  I am Rowdy Halladowdy and I must kill Sarah Connor.

Joe Saunders – 5 1/3, 6 ER.  Saunders is the new blech.

Kelvim Escobar – Will start this Saturday vs. the Tigers.  I have him stashed in one league.  Probably be a game time decision on whether I start him.  It’s not a 12 team league.  I wouldn’t start him there.  Not worth the headache.  Just wait to see how he does the first time out.  Honestly, I don’t have high hopes for him to stay healthy, but he’s worth a flier.  The nice thing about Kelvim Escobar is that when he’s been healthy, he’s been effective.

Alex Rios – HR yesterday.  Now .471 over the last 7 with 2 HRs.  Hey, looks like a little razzing has got Rios running through it.

Rick Porcello – 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER and pulled after 84 pitches.  This doesn’t seem very Leylandian.  Was it bring your grandson to work day for the Tigers?

Matt Joyce – 3 homers now in 5 games.  What, Gabe Gross is going to steal time from him?  I now own him in three leagues.  I lost Gamel, a middle reliever schmohawk and Krispie, respectively.

Ben Zobrist – The verse is, “The Zo hit another homer.”  The refrain is, “Of course, he did.”

Kevin Slowey – He’s now 8-1 after a 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER performance.  Ladies and gentlemen of the comments, I’m just a simple fantasy baseball ‘pert.  I do not understand your ways.  Your world frightens and confuses me, especially when you ask me if you should trade away Slowey.  What I do know is Slowey’s been excellent.

Manny Parra – 4 IP, 10 ER.  I said to Sell him last Friday, so I’m absolved of this.  But in one deep league, where there’s few options, I had Pena, Parra, Peavy and Wolf go yesterday.   That’s 23 earned runs in 11 and two-thirds of an inning.  Instead of buying me a daiquiri, perhaps we should go for cyanide.

Jake Peavy – 1 IP, 4 ER. Had the flu.  A’la Ralph Fiennes, “I pardon you.”

Antonio Bastardo – 6 IP, 1 ER.  If only his first name was Ubaldo, then he’d officially have the most badass name in the history of the planet.  Solid major league debut, but it was against the Padres.  I wouldn’t start him against the Dodgers next time out, but I’d grab him in deep leagues to see how the Bastardo does.

David Hernandez – 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER vs. the Mariners and, no, Ichiro didn’t hit 5 solo shots.

Dexter Fowler – Not only has he stopped hitting, but he’s not stealing either.  He has a lot of promise in keepers, but in one year leagues you need to be looking elsewhere.

Miguel Tejada – 4-for-6 and leading the National League in batting.  Here’s a preview of Friday’s Buy/Sell:  Miguel Tejada – Sell.

Vin Mazzaro – 6 1/3 IP, 0 ER in his major league debut.  Mazzaro’s from Hackensack, En-Jay.  Fun fact:  That’s where Grey was born.  Betcha he knows where to get a great slice of pizza.  Okay, nostaglia out.  I wouldn’t pick Mazzaro on any team.

Randy Wolf – 6 IP, 5 ER.  He’s been too good up until this point, so I didn’t cut him in any league.  Though I felt like cutting myself.   RIP, Frankie from The Real World: San Diego.  You more compelling than Irene “I’m Crazy From Lyme’s Disease” any day.

Tony Pena – 2/3 IP, 4 ER.  I know Tony Pena.  You, friend, are not him.  Goodbye!

Dan Haren – 7 IP, 3 baserunners, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  After the game, Haren said, “That Tony Pena was an imposter.”

Chad Qualls – Was available last night for the save.  Unfortunately, there was no save.  I’m still looking at you, Pena.

Mark Reynolds – 0-for-4, 2 Ks.  Like clockwork, this guy gets to .260 then he tumbles to .230.  It’s the patented Reynolds Whap.

Raul Ibanez – 2 HRs yesterday.  He don’t need no stinkin’ Citizens Bank.

John Maine – Supposedly, a Mets TV crew member has swine flu and has infected everyone, except Mr. Met.  The Mets said Maine should be cured by Friday.  And, as we know, when you cure the swine, you get prosciutto.  Ah… That never gets old.  Never!  Now don’t forget to tip your waitresses.

Carlos Beltran – Also with Swine.  Now I know how the flappers felt when they thought they lost their shortstop, Arky Vaughan, with Polio in the summer of ‘35.  Grey, see, I’m starting Arky, but Skeeter Newsome is on waivers and I’m in a ten way tie for first in homers with 3.  Should I make the switch, see?

Okay, take off your aluminum foil cap you use to get better TV reception and put on your thinking cap because we’re going into The Land of Sabermetrics with your host, me.  Today we’re going to look at FIP.  Stands for Fielding Independent Pitching.  It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you.  It’s a pure ERA.  It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it.  It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it.  That’s FIP.  Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher who has an ERA of 2.75 but his FIP is a 6.75.  A -4.00 difference.  That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up.  So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)

Jair Jurrjens – -2.00 difference.  Meesa tinks Jar-Jar’s going to get in big trouble.

Doug Davis – -1.99.  No surprise here (I hope).  He’s not nearly as good as he’s been and he’s only sitting on a 3.25 ERA.  Here comes the youch!

Jered Weaver – -1.86.  This one surprised me.  I figured he was pitching as good as his numbers indicated, but it turns out his BABIP is low and his men left on base is high.  Maybe him and big bro might have more to talk about over the All-Star Break than their mullets.

Matt Cain – -1.83.  Upsetting for me because I have him on a lot of teams, but not completely surprising.  His walks will cut eyes out of a sheet and haunt him.

Kevin Millwood – -1.71.  You shouldn’t own him anyway outside of AL-Only leagues.

Chris Volstad – -1.70.  I knew he wasn’t this good!  Looks like the hurricane season might come early this year (<–Not sure if that makes sense, but seemed to fit.)

Joe Saunders – -1.58.  You didn’t really think he was a sub-3 ERA pitcher, did you?

Brett Myers – -1.46.  Not that surprising until you realize his ERA is already a 4.81.  That’s right, his FIP is 6.28.  Don’t wait around for the bounce back.

Johan Santana – -1.27.  But his FIP is still only 2.05.  You’d take a 2.05 ERA on the year and love it.

Tim Wakefield – -1.21.  Looks like he may get greeted with a *pinkie to mouth* knuckle sandwich.

Zach Duke – -1.10. Change is gonna come, nephew.

Francisco Liriano went four innings and gave up seven runs against a team that absolutely kills lefties in Fenway.  Let’s run down his 3-year averages for the months of the season, starting with April: 6.93, 1.99, 1.51, 2.31, 1.13 and 4.36.  You think he might need some time to get going?  His April combined ERA for the last 3 years, not including this year, is almost 7.  His combined May through August ERAs are under 2. Are you kidding me? Heffin’ hey, trade for him! This might be the best buy you find right now.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Kurt Suzuki – First HR of the season yesterday.  He hit one HR through the middle of June last year.  What is everyone doing at Yankee Stadium?  Is it the Macarena?  The Electric Slide?  No, it’s The Jetstream!

Justin Verlander – 5 IP, 7 ER.  It’ll get better, but it’s not going to get much better to make him a buy candidate.

Joe Saunders – 5 IP, 5 ER.  Take out the Liquid Paper; more corrections to come.

Andre Ethier – Hit his 5th HR yesterday.  Frankly, sometimes I’m wrong. (17% of the time!)  I had my doubts about whether he would produce this year, but he’s doing it.

Hunter Pence – 4th homer, 3rd steal in yesterday’s game.  Marching towards 25/15 and top 30 outfielder status.

Francisco Cordero – 6th save, 1.29 ERA. Member he was a mess in spring training?  Uh-huh.

Kevin Gregg – 1 IP, 1 ER, 6.43 ERA.  Member he was a mess in– Oh, wait.

Johnny Cueto – 7 IP, 0 ER. 2.55 ERA on the season.  In the preseason, I said I was higher on Cueto this year than Volquez.  I wasn’t joking.

Milton Bradley – 0-for-4, 3 Ks.  Batting .043 so far this season when he shows up healthy and it’s not raining.  Cubs fans were booing him yesterday like he was Bartman and a goat’s love child.

Willy Taveras – 0-for-2, batting .268.  Wait, he’s no longer batting .400?  Ah, dim the lights in Ted Williams’s freezer for one more year.

David Purcey – 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER. Still burping.

Omar Vizquel/Ian Kinsler/Andruw Jones – Is there anyone not batting over .400 on the Rangers?  Oh, Salty B. Davis.

Jair Jurrjens – 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER.  1.42 ERA on the year.  I really like Jar-Jar this year.  I don’t think his ERA stays anywhere near where it is, obviously.  But he can keep it around 3.75 with some Ks.

Adam Dunn – 0-for-4. Oh, well. .300’s in the rear view.

Scott Baker – 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  Someone’s having a bit of a problem with the long ball.  If you had to ask me if he’s going to rebound in May like CC last year, or if he’s going to become completely unusable like Gorzelanny.  I’d take Gorz and June as the under.  I think Baker’s headed for the Disgraceful List. You don’t give up 7 home runs in 8 and two-thirds and just suddenly say, “Hey, you know what?  I just realized I was supposed to be throwing the ball harder.  And in better locations.”

Brian Bannister – Maybe he just likes pitching in April.  Pumpkin’s ETA is one week.

Josh Fields – HR, 3-for-5, batting in the 2 hole.  If this sticks, and, with Ozzie, anything’s possible, this could boost Fields’s value a lot.

Carlos Villanueva – Back as the setup man.  Only he was setting up Todd Coffey.  The Baron, frequent commenter/guest poster, pegged Coffey as an out of nowhere closer that gets 30 saves this year as Hoffman continues to get injured.  Not as crazy as it sounds.

Chris Young – 7 IP, 6 baserunners, 0 ER.  I like him; you know that.  But it sure don’t hurt when there’s only one guy in the opposing starting lineup hitting .300.

John Danks – 7 IP, 1 ER.  I feel like this guy isn’t getting the respect he deserves.  So far I’ve mentioned him in two of three Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sells as a Buy.  I put him as a starter to target in the preseason.  What do I have to do?  Help me, help you.

John Maine – 5.2 IP, 5 ER.  Outdueled by Joel Pineiro.  I just vomited onto my wall and it reads, “Punt.”

B.J. Ryan – 1 IP, 3 ER. Downs wasn’t much better making this a save situation in the first place by giving up a run.

Rafael Soriano – Got the save yesterday.  It was a tied game and Cox brought in his lefty closer into a tight game to face a tough lefty.  Don’t need to read too much into it.  Soriano’s 2nd in line, we knew that already though.

LaTroy Hawkins – Joey Valgreen’s decomposing right before our ojos – bad back, ankle, and calf.    We have no faith whatsoever in Hawkins but if he asked us to the SAGNOF dance, we’d accept the offer.  If you’ve got Valverde, go buy yourself some LaTroy Handcuffs…

Jay Bruce – Another HR.  This time I had him in my lineup.  Bruuuuuce!

Jeremy Guthrie – 6 IP, 5 ER.  Gotta know when to hold ‘em and know when to fold ‘em.  His team gives him no chances for wins, he faces the top offenses in baseball all the time, he doesn’t strikeout that many guys and he’s only a 4 ERA pitcher to begin with.   You win, world of Guthrie haters.  Are you happy?

Melky Cabrera – 2 HRs yesterday.  4 HRs in 23 ABs this year.  Everybody, come on!  We’re doing The Jetstream! (What? Trying too hard?)

Alex Gordon revealed yesterday that he would require hip surgery and would miss a few months.  Willie Bloomquist owners rejoice!  Obviously this isn’t great news for Gordon.  That’s 99 red balloons for your fearless leader, Grey.  I loved me some Alex Gordon.  Though, as fate would have it, I didn’t actually get him on any team.  Not by design.  I luckily backed up into that one.  You can DL him, but I’d cut bait if you have anyone else in the DL slot.  Gordon’s not coming back for a while and even when he was around, he was tentative at best.  It’s going to be real hard for me to sell anyone on drafting him next year.  But I will try!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

LaTroy Hawkins – Notched a save as Jose Valverde was held out of the game because of a sore back.  The Astros are making it sound like Valverde’s back isn’t much of an issue.  Yeah, and the Orioles wanted Wieters to work on his D.  And the Mariners brought Griffey back so they can win games not as a PR stunt.  And the Rockies were happy with the value they received for Holliday.  These clubs lie through their teeth.  Valverde may be fine and Hawkins is a cuddle boy, but all that means nothing if Hawkins is getting the saves.  If you have room, own him.

Alex Rodriguez – Took BP and hit the ball out of the park a few times.  Afterwards he said he hadn’t felt that good since his cousin was sticking him in the ass with steriods.

Cliff Lee – 6 IP, 1 ER.  Had a lot of baserunners to only give up one run.  Am I always glass is half empty with Lee?  Yes, yes I am.

Kosuke Fukudome – 3rd homer.  Looks like a pattern is emerging.  Someone likes to hit in the beginning of the year.  Last year, Fukudome hit the ball well through June.  So far, so same.

Ryan Franklin – Another save.  I think he gets 20-25 saves this year as LaRussa occasionally works in other guys.

Sean Marshall – 5 IP, 3 ER and 4 Ks.  Pretty much exactly what I would hope for from Marshall.  He was in line for the Win when he left, but Aaron Heilman, obviously still upset about losing the 5th starter job to him, took care of that.

Kenji Johjima – Joe Geema to the DL.  Keep an eye out if the Mariners are going to call up Jeff Clement, though Rob Johnson looks like he might take the majority of the PT.  Johnson is actually more intriguing than Joe Geema. (<–not really a compliment)

Yunel Escobar – Out for a few days with a strained ab.  Chipper says the left side of the bench is really comfy.

Emilio Bonifacio – 0-for-5 and three more Ks.  Dallas McPherson says, “Muahahahahaha.”

Vladimir Guerrero – In my daily roundups, I usually don’t mention guys that are owned everywhere unless there’s some kind of value change.  So was it weird it was just two days ago that I decided to mention Vladdy for just randomly going 0-for-4?  Or prescient?  You make the call!  All I know is the other day I saw a guy that looked really old and broken down.  It was revealed he has a strained pectoral muscle.  Glass half full?  He’s not really as bad as he’s looked so far this year; he’s injured and will return healthy pounding the ball.  But I think the glass is half empty.  Even if he’s healthy, he’s old and getting older by the day.  Unlike Benjamin Button.

John Danks – 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks.  Mentioned in the preseason he’s one of the few AL starters I’m targeting.  I kinda wish I would’ve highlighted him more.  *SPOILER ALERT*  He’ll be in the Buy/Sell coming later today.  Stay tuned…

Barry Zito – 5 IP, 6 ER. At least one thing is constant.  The greatest trick Billy Beane ever pulled was convincing the world Zito was good.

Emmanuel Burriss – 3-for-5 with a steal.  If Webster gets hot, he can swipe 7 bags in a week.  Might be the Nuevofacio.

Chase Headley – 4-for-4, 3 RBIs.  I’d add him for this weekend in Philly.

Howie Kendrick – .205 on the year and his speed and power are weak too.  Awesome!  Was on the all-overrated team too.

Mark Teixeira – Received a cortisone shot for his wrist.  Maybe patty cake with Shelley Duncan wasn’t such a good idea.

Joe Saunders – 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners.  Great mysteries of the world… The origins of Stonehenge?  Did CT and Shauvon have sex?  And how is no one hitting Saunders?  At some point, this ace in wolf’s clothes is going to rub its butt on your Domino’s pizza.