Fantasy Baseball Advice

Fantasy baseball is a fickle beast.  It will lure you in with chocolates and fine smelling perfume.  Then leave you heartbroken, mad as hell and unable to watch regular baseball.  Twelve after 20 is becoming the year of the Aflac for closers.  It is just not safe to be a ninth inning pitcher.   It’s like someone is hunting them down one by one, and systematically destroying everyone’s hopes at accumulating points in saves.  Wait, is that a laser pointer on Huston Street?  Watching guys that I usually opine about in my holds posts finally getting some burn in the limelight.  It is a strong week for streaming low end two start pitchers.  Lots of decent matchup type guys and some  guys that are under the radar who should be rostered in most formats soon.  So enjoy the week to come and have a very wobbly and not very up-right Cinco De Mayo.  Here’s some two start starters for this week in fantasy baseball:  (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

5/9

Anthony Bass @ Col – Moscoso

Ross Detwiler @ Pit – Bedard

Drew Smyly @ Sea – Vargas

5/10

Henderson Alvarez @ Min – Marquis

Derek Lowe @ Bos – Beckett

5/11

Kyle Drabek @ Min – Blackburn

James McDonald vs Hou – Norris

5/12

R.A. Dickey @ Mia – Nolasco

TWO START OPTIONS:

J.A. Happ (Mia vs Zambrano, @Pit vs Morton) After watching him pitch against the Mets, I said to myself, “Self, we should keep an eye on him for future starts.”  For a deeper league with fringe options, the stale fish and the sinking pirate ship seem tantalizing to me.

Bronson Arroyo (@Mil vs Marcum, Was vs Jackson) Because of rain you get him twice this week, ain’t that special?  Likes to use the method of one good/one bad start.   His last one was bad, so there is your heads up.

Josh Tomlin (CHW vs Humber, @Bos vs Doubront) ERA says 5, but the other numbers say something different.  And if numbers talk we have a bigger problem.  Like what else talks to you?  Lunch meat?

Duane Below (@Sea vs Millwood, @Oak vs Parker) I don’t wanna jinx him, but he is unscored upon this year. I bet someone a shiny new quarter that no longer exists by the fourth inning Monday.  Still all things considered, it is Seattle and that is Millwood, so it could be an easy W.

Joe Saunders (STL vs Lynn, SF vs Zito) I don’t know how he is doing it either, so don’t ask.  Luck is the best thing I can think of, LOB rate of 84% and a FIP in the high 2′s makes him look more realistic and not like the boogieman sleeping in my closet.

Marco Estrada (Cin vs Arroyo, CHC vs Volstad) I see his name and the CHiPs theme song jumps in my head. Now that we are on the same page enjoy the classic fade out to that song. Without the Ks, I’d wanna watch TJ Hooker instead.

A.J. Burnett ( Was vs Jackson, Hou vs Happ) A dozen of anything sounds delicious.  Oh… they were earned runs. Yikes.  Anything worth doing, A.J does it.

Barry Zito (@LAD vs Lilly, @Ari vs Saunders) His matchup looks like a retread meeting of guys over 30 who no longer throw hard. 7 walks last start as he was in a hurry to get to the Perfect Strangers reunion show. Big Cousin Larry fan.

Jarrod Parker (Tor vs Romero, Det vs Below) Good job, youngin’,, now go do it again and make yourself completely fantasy useful. While you’re at it, give me your sandwich….I said give me your sandwich!

Jonathan Sanchez (Bos vs Doubront, @CHW vs Danks) Filthy, dirty.  I don’t know what his nickname is anymore, but it should start with “in” and end with “consistent.”  Throws away too many pitches to go deep in a game and, for that reason, he is just poo.

Well, here we are in week 3 already, wonder if ML bee will have another opening game just to keep it fresh.   The world of two-start pitchers is in full bloom, the rotations are coming together and being set in an orderly fashion.  Thank goodness.  I needed a abacus, 2 liters of cola and a Snoopy notebook just to get anything close to some sort of semblance for last week’s post.  I will be honest with you, there aren’t many great options this week to take advantage of matchups.  Every lower end option this week has either one or two really tough outing.  My best advice to you, if you have ever read my posts before and are on the fence about a starter, refer to your most readily available betting line.  I say it every year and some listen, but others forget to take their ADD medicine and wander off.  So enjoy my tidbit of fantasy baseball knowledge as we get to the fellas that will go twice this week. Enjoy the week and good luck!  (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups change.)

One Start Streamers:

4/18

Derek Lowe @ Sea – Vargas

Juan Nicasio vs SD – Richard

4/19

Randy Wolf  @LAD – Harang

4/20

Lance Lynn @ Pit vs Morton

Edinson Volquez vs PHI – Hamels

Jeanmar Gomez @ Oak – Godfrey

4/21

Jake Westbrook  @ Pit – Correia

Two Start Options:

Philip Humber (Bal vs Arrieta, Sea vs Beavan) Of all the guys listed, probably my favorite 2 start streamer of the week.  That doesn’t mean you should stop reading here.  BTW, where else can you get a Humber twice in a week and not have to pay for it?

Freddy Garcia  (Min vs Pavano, @Bos vs Bard) We still like you cause of the hat you wear.  So be grateful. I want the old Freddy, with the flowing locks of Jheri-curled sassiness, that’s when I used to use words like smitten and rad.  Is a 6 IP, 3 ER pitcher but based on this week’s other choices it could be slim pickens, minus him riding the atomic bomb.

Joe Saunders (Pit vs Bedard, Atl vs Hanson)  Love me some of the Colonel. I am a sucker for wily veterans, what can I say, that’s why I got rims on my motorized scooter.  Hope for the best, pray for an offensive onslaught by the D-Backs. And by love in the first sentence I mean from a distance.

Jeremy Guthrie (SD vs Luebke, @Mil vs Gallardo) God, I wish he was better.  I wanna root for him cause he generally seems like a nice guy and someone that I would probably stop stalking if he just acknowledged me.  Jeremy, BTW, your new furniture looks great from the lawn.

Danny Duffy (@Det vs Verlander, Tor vs Romero) Hey, Danny, good job on that last start.  Let’s move you up to the AP level of matchups now. As fast as he was added, he will be stamped with a triangle and then separated by color; green, brown, clear.  See ya in 3 weeks, I’ll send you a tickler.

Randall Delgado (NYM vs Santana, @Ari vs Kennedy) Let’s temper expectations a little; it was against Houston.  Julio Teheran was seen working on his core with Richard Simmons and an ice cream scoop.  The scoop could not be reached for comment. Good test for the youngen, after these two you should know what you’re getting and could be a popular pick if you don’t get him now.

Kevin Millwood (Cle vs Masterson, CHW vs Danks) “You know Bartolo Colon with his sneaky 4-ish ERA in a pitchers’ park?  That’s Millwood.”  That’s me quoting Grey.  If Millwood makes 30 starts I may start writing about fantasy synchronized swimming, because he will be a frequenter in this weekly post and I already hate it.

Drew Smyly (@KC vs Chen, Tex vs Lewis) Great lineup…check. At least one decent matchup…check.  Named after an emoticon…check. Hey, if he totally sucks, it was fun writing his name like this for awhile, Drew : )

Joe Blanton (@SF vs Bumgarner, @SD vs Bass) For streaming starts this is like a threesome with the 80′s version of Carol Alt and Ma’am from Webster.  Hey, no one really wants the details, it still counts.  Philly’s O is more like a Y right now with aspirations of being a real vowel someday.

Dillon Gee (@Atl vs Hanson,SF vs Lincecum) A rough matchup week for a guy I tend to like to outperform this year. True story, his facial inventory is causing PS3 to freak out.   Should market himself a little better and change his number to 6.  Oh well, the bottles are on ice so we have time.

Sergio Santos was traded to the Blue Jays for Nestor Molina, no relation to Alfred.  Santos will take over the Blue Jays closing job with Frank Francisco being waved away like a stale fart — Stank Fartcisco, if you will.  Santos was made for this job.  He’s a cyborg.  A cyborg of Ks who was sent here from the future to save games and to dance to the club remix of O Canada.  Only wish he wasn’t traded so less people would be aware of him and he’d come as a bargain in 2012 fantasy drafts.  Alas, he’s still gonna be worth a high (for a closer) draft pick.  Last year he had 92 Ks in 63 1/3 IP.  Who are you, Carlos Marmol?  I love you, Santos, now have my babies and then name them something with a K.  Like Klancy or Kasey or Keith.  Anyway, here’s some more moves for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Heath Bell – Signed with the Miami Marlins to replace Juan Carlos Oviedo, who wants to know why the Florida Marlins can change their name but he can’t.  Heath Bell will be a capable closer that I may or may not have on my fantasy teams, depending on where he’s drafted.  I think he’ll probably be too rich for my blood.  If I get a transfusion, I’ll revisit him.

Luke Gregerson – As of right now he’s going to be the Padres closer.  His K-rate was about as ugly as it gets for relievers.  Easily the worst K-rate for a successful reliever. (No data was shifted through to verify this, but he had a 5.50 K-rate; that’s egregious.  Or Egregerson, if you will.)  Does any of this matter if Gregerson’s on the board late and he’s still the closer in March (the Padres might get someone else or change their minds; it’s their prerogative)?  Nah, I’d draft Gregerson on every team of mine if he’s the closer.

Jon Rauch – Is anyone changing teams besides relievers?  C’mon, Pujols and Fielder, sign already!  For now, we have Rauch to talk about.  Yay.  He signed with the Mets to set-up in the 8th inning and reach things off of high shelves.

Frank Francisco – Hey, it’s Stank Fartcisco!  Long time no hear from.  The Mets brass, “Francisco and Rauch were so good in Toronto last year, let’s get them to close out our wins!”  Janitor overhearing them, “They weren’t good.”  Mets brass, “Hey, Janitor, you wanna manage the team?”  Janitor, “I am.  I’m Terry Collins.”  Mets brass, “Who?”  I’d be more than willing to draft Francisco since he’ll be getting saves, but it won’t be pretty.  I guarantee at least five times during 2012 you’ll hear me say, “Rauch is now the closer.”  Then a week later I’ll say, “Francisco’s the closer.”  Then a week after that I’ll say, “Hey, whatever happened to Bobby Parnell?”

Angel Pagan – Was traded to the Giants for Andres Torres (and Ramon Ramirez).  This trade happens in your fantasy league when two owners grow bored and trade apples for apples.  Neither of these apples are delicious.

Joe Saunders – Stays with the Diamondbacks.  NL West hitters rejoice.

Aaron Harang – The Harangutan brings his ugly mug to the Dodgers.  These are the times when I’m glad I don’t have to do Alyssa Milano’s job of sleeping with every Dodgers player.

Nate McLouth – Goes back to Pittsburgh.  Pirates obviously want to put together a McOutfield.  First one between Tabata and Presley to add Mc gets the starting gig.  There hasn’t been a complete McOutfield since the Federal League’s Boston Bogtrotters in 1915.

Matt Capps – Resigns with the Twins.  Member when Nathan signed with the Rangers and you asked me, “Grey, que paso?  Donde es Twins closer ahora?”  And I said, “Shut the SAP button off your computer.”  Good times we had.  Any hoo!  Capps will be the closer in Minny until he turds up their games and Gardenhire starts picking his bullpen scab.

Jerry Hairston Jr. – Signed by the Dodgers.  First Harang and now Hairston Jr.!  Dodgers look like they’re putting together a team using Groupons.

Kendrys Morales – Has been swinging aggressively and jogging on a weightless treadmill.  Looks like NASA’s got their first baseman!  In the moon league that Kendrys is training for, when you celebrate a game-winning home run, you gently fall down to home plate.

Kevin Slowey – To the Rockies.  That’s like dressing up Tina Turner as a piñata and inviting her to a quinceañera.

Dmitri Young – Lost 70 pounds and wants to get back into baseball.  The last time that much excess Young weight was lost was when the Twins traded Delmon to the Tigers.

Aroldis Chapman – Sounds like he won’t be in the rotation again in 2012.  Him and Joba should commiserate about how their clubs are totally Mr. Bungling their careers and costing them millions.

Bryce Harper – I already went over my Bryce Harper 2012 fantasy.  I wrote it while receiving shock therapy.  Since then the Nats said he might be the starting right fielder out of camp.  If I may read between the lines, what they actually said was, “We are not having Harper start out of camp, but we’d sure like to sell some tickets to our home games in April besides the ones Strasburg is pitching.”

Joe Mauer is done for the year with pneumonia.  I’m almost 100% sure Morneau was the carrier of the virus.  On Friday, frequent commenter Mike said, “If you went to Joe Mauer’s house, went into his basement, jack-hammered through the concrete, and started digging, what would be the under/over on number of feet you’d have to go down before you found the first dessicated Native American corpse?  3 feet?  4 feet?  I mean, that Native American graveyard can’t be that far below the surface.”  I honestly never thought I’d say this this (stutterer!) early in his career, but I think Mauer’s going to be a bargain next year.  Assuming he falls into the 10th round or later, he’s worth the gamble at catcher for 2012, right?  I mean, even if he only gets 100 games and hits .300, it’s worth the ulcer, isn’t it?  I think so.  With that said (yeah, here comes opposite talk), I’m sure glad I haven’t drafted him the last two years in any league.  He hit 3 homers this year.  As in between 2 and 4.  Jesus Montero has that many in 10 games.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Jason Kubel – Probably done for the year.  In related news, Morneau, Mauer and Kubel have a fishing trip planned for the first weekend of October and all Twins fans have a hunting trip planned for the same weekend.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka – Done for the year.  Back date that to March.  Are the Twins fielding a team this final week and a half?

Brian Dinkelman – 4-for-5 yesterday and 7 for his last 9.  When your team’s good news is Brian Dinkelman, you got a big fish that needs some frying or whatever that cliche is.

Ryan Howard – Out until Thursday, which will probably mean he plays only sporadically even after that.  Ross Gload will fill in.  Army with harmony…Dave, drop a Gload on him!

Justin Verlander – 8 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 6 Ks as he won his 24th game yesterday.  That’s pretttay pretttay good.  Tough year to be Jered Weaver.

Joakim Soria – Didn’t pitch this weekend.  Now all the Royals’ 9th inning eggs are hoping for some good Holland days.

Pablo Sandoval – Hit two homers in one inning.  When you throw Sandoval two meatballs, he jumps on them.

David Price – Left after 4 innings after being hit in the chest by a liner.  Should be fine for his next start, which he will throw while wearing knight’s armor.

Desmond Jennings – 2-for-5 with a steal.  In roughly a third of the season, he has 9 homers and 18 steals.  Yeah, go ahead and times those by three.

Brandon Morrow – 8 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 8 Ks.  There should a glossary term for these K-heavy pitchers that are a total tease.  You suggest in the comments, thank you.

Adam Lind – 2-for-3 with two homers.  Be nice if he went on one of his crazy 6 homers in 8 games binges.  Cust kayin’.

Joe Saunders – 8 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 9 baserunners, 3 Ks.  He came through big time for my borderline starter post from Thursday.  (And Matt Harrison too.  Brad Lincoln, not so much.)

Paul Goldschmidt – 2-for-3 with a homer.  With 8 homers and 45 Ks in 40 games this year, he’s either gonna be something special next year or a flat-out bomb.

Mark Reynolds – Homered on Friday and Saturday, then was beaned in the head by a Ervin Santana pitch.  His CT scan came back negative, then the CT scan picked up Johnny Bananas and carried him to the other side of The Gulag.

James Loney – 5-for-6 yesterday and two homers in two games on Friday and Saturday.  I don’t like saying to pick up Loney, so if I wink, it means pick him up.  Wink.

Zack Greinke – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 10 Ks.  I have two things to note, neither of which is that interesting.  First, I can’t believe Greinke is barely under a 4.00 ERA in the NL.  Second, I can never remember if it’s a H or a K with Zack.  From writing 1200+ words five days a week about these players, I can spell Saltalamacchia without looking it up.  I could be in a baseball spelling bee and kick serious ass and get tripped up by spelling Zack.  I feel like there should be a standard Zack spelling.  H or K, that’s it.

Erick Aybar – 4-for-4, 2 homers, 5 runs, 4 RBIs and now hitting .434 in September.  Looks like a classic Septacular performance.

Adrian Gonzalez – It was revealed this weekend that he’s only taking batting practice every other day due to weakness in his shoulder.  He said, “(The weakness is) fine.  It’s the end of the year.”  Um, maybe in San Diego.

Mike Aviles – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs with his 2nd homer in three games.  Sawx kinda have to win games and Aviles, McDonald, Salty, Scutaro and Conor Jackson (when I saw his name as C. Jackson in the box score, I thought it was Curtis Jackson) are playing and Wakefield is pitching.   Up the team salary to $300 million.

Brandon Beachy – 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER and 8 earned in his last 9 2/3 IP, 8 ER.  The good news for people who like bad news is he’s tired.   The other bad news is he might struggle next year if the Braves don’t shut him down.

Jason Heyward – 3-for-4 as he hit 8th in front of the pitcher.  He should consider apologizing to Fredi for whatever transgression he did to him or his family.  Meanwhile, pray he doesn’t hit three homers in one game in the playoffs and get on everyone’s radar again.

Manny Acosta – Closed out yesterday’s game while Parnell worked the 8th.  Honestly, I think the Mets are going to get a closer in the offseason and don’t really care who gets the ball in the ninth right now.  It’s not like they’re grooming anyone.

Chien-Ming Wang – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks vs. the Marlins’ Brad Hand.  For a change of pace, this game saw Wang beating Hand.

A.J. Pierzynski – 4-for-5, 4 RBIs and 2 homers.  He reminded me of this classic post by Rudy.

Bryan LaHair – 1-for-3 yesterday and a homer on Saturday.  He should be playing every day, but he’s not.  I feel like someone should write a song titled, “The 28-Year-Old Rookie.”  Belle and Sebastian, where you at?

Jordan Pacheco – Batted third yesterday and went 0-for-4, but is hitting .320 over the last week with a homer.  He did so little in Triple-A this year, it’s kinda comical (3 homers, 2 steals, .278).  Guess if you’re really hogtied in a very deep league, you can take a look.

Allen Craig – 3-for-4, 2 homers.  Before this game, he hadn’t done much since he started, uh, starting.  But maybe this is the beginning of something.  Only Miss Cleo knows for sure.

Matt Holliday – Inferred here first after reading shizz elsewhere, it sounds like Holliday’s done for the year.

Mariano Rivera – Tied Trevor Hoffman’s save record.  Right after he breaks the record, the Yankees announced Bobby Parnell would take over as closer.

Wouldn’t say this is crunch time as much as this is “Your nuts are in a cracker and the season’s closing in and squeezing tight so you better just throw any pitchers that are available because you need stats — stat!” time.  The line for last week was 80 IP, 4.05 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 50 Ks and 3 wins.  Not a great line, but if you throw out Lannan and Francis because you had better sense than me and didn’t start them.  The line comes down to 3.42 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.  To recap, these aren’t guys I’d drop anyone worthwhile to get, these starters are meant for streaming purposes and all of their ownership in ESPN is under 50%.  These streamers are in no particular order.  Also, in the final month of the season, managers juggle their lineups more, so there’s no guarantee all of these guys are listed on the right day.  Anyway, here’s some borderline starters for this week in fantasy baseball:

Friday, September 16th

Philip Humber – It’s really slim pickins on Friday for under 50% owned starters.  I’m not a huge fan of Humber but compared to some of the other schmohawks, well, here he is.

Jeff Locke – On Friday, Locke goes against the Smoke Monster in chess and the Dodgers’ weak offense.

Saturday, September 17th

Jeanmar Gomez – Gets the Twins, has only given up 3 earned in the last 17 and a third innings and when you say his first name it causes phlegm.

Rick Porcello – Don’t trust Porcello at all but he goes to a -co stadium and faces the A’s.

Chris Volstad – In his last three starts, 17 1/3 IP and 3.12 ERA.  Here he takes on the Nats and Strasburg’s three to five innings of work.

Sunday, September 18th

Joe Saunders – In 22 innings vs. the Padres, he has a 2.05 ERA and a .190 BAA.  Kill me now for recommending Saunders.

Matt Harrison – 1.84 ERA vs. the Mariners, though I’m not sure there’s any pitchers with a 2+ ERA vs. the M’s.  Maybe Liriano or Danks.  Schmohawks.

Brad Lincoln – Gave a pretty yawnstipating start last time out, but here I am going back to the well like Baby Jessica.

Monday, September 19th

David Huff – I never said the names on this list were gonna be pretty.  There’s only a few teams I could see starting Huff against:  the Mariners and the Mariners minor league affiliates.

Mike Minor – He just dismantled the Marlins (with a four walk performance in 5 2/3 innings — technicalities!).

Tuesday, September 20th

Jason Vargas – Choices aren’t Grade A when I’m taking on a Mariners starter, but it was between him and To Be Announced.  And I don’t like To Be Announced’s matchup.

Edwin Jackson – Highest compliment I can give any guys on this list is when I think one should be owned in more than 50% of leagues.  Jackson’s one of those guys.

Derek Holland – Last three starts (when this was written), 1.77 ERA and 21 Ks in 20 1/3 IP.

Wednesday, September 21st

Dana Eveland – He/she gets the Giants in Chavez Ravine.  Giants have a .236 average vs. lefties, which is only slightly worse than what they’re batting against righties.  As for the lack of other options today, they were kinda Plouffey.  I almost put down Brett Cecil, but he’s all over the map and not in the good traveling circus kind of way.