Fantasy Baseball Advice

Hey, boys and girls! It’s that time again to look at all of the major league closers for all the major league teams and all their setup men and all the heartache they bring. Yay! So I had this girl that I invested far too much time in. Like a third round pick investment. We date for two years and I’m blissful. I even Tivo her soap operas! In the end, she left me with a giant hole in my heart and flowery, bathroom wallpaper. I tell you this story because closers are just like dames. You really shouldn’t invest too much love in your closers. You lose a closer, just pickup his replacement or grab someone else’s replacement. It’ll work itself out. Anyway, here’s all the major league closers and all of their setup men:

NO-BRAINERS

This tier is filled with a bunch of no-brainers. Because they’re dumb as dog balls? No, because you are if you fall in love with them and let them break your heart. Trade these closers for needed parts.

1. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA (Justin Speier, Scot Shields, Jose Arredondo)
2. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima)
3. Joe Nathan, MIN (Matt Guerrier, Dennys Reyes, Jesse Crain)
4. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Kyle Farnsworth)
5. Brad Lidge, PHI (Tom Gordon, Ryan Madson)
6. Takashi Saito, LAD (Jonathan Broxton)

BRAINERS

These closers have the potential to save just as many games as the no-brainers. “Then, Grey, why make a different group?” I’m getting to that!  For whatever reason, people don’t like these closers as much as the above closers, so they can be had on the cheap and you can still get saves from them. Saves are what you want. Dur.

7. Joakim Soria, KAN (Ramon Ramirez)
8. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Scott Linebrink, Octavio Dotel)
9. Jon Rauch, WAS (Luis Ayala)
10. Kerry Wood, CHI (Carlos Marmol)
11. Francisco Cordero, CIN (David Weathers)
12. Brandon Lyon, ARI (Tony Pena, Chad Qualls)
13. Trevor Hoffman, SDG (Heath Bell)
14. Billy Wagner, NYM (Duaner Sanchez, Aaron Heilman)
15. Jose Valverde, HOU (Doug Brocail)
16. George Sherrill, BAL (Bunch of Schmohawks)
17. Matt Capps, PIT (Damaso Marte)
18. Brian Wilson, SAN (Tyler Walker)
19. Kevin Gregg, FLA (Renyel Pinto, Matt Lindstrom)
20. Brian Fuentes, COL (Taylor Buchholz, Manny Corpas)

BRAIN FREEZE

Saves are awesome! I love saves! I just got four saves from Torres! Wait, why is Gagne coming back? Ow! Brain freeze! Use the following closers at your own risk.

21. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Scott Downs)
22. Todd Jones, DET (Aquilino Lopez, Fernando Rodney, Joel Zumaya)
23. Joe Borowski, CLE (Masa Kobayashi)
24. Salomon Torres, MIL (Eric Gagne, G. Mota)
25. Troy Percival, TAM (Dan Wheeler, Al Reyes)
26. Ryan Franklin, STL (Jason Isringhausen, Chris Perez)
27. C.J. Wilson, TEX (Eddie Guardado, Joaquin Benoit)
28. Huston Street, OAK (Keith Foulke, Alan Embree, Santiago Casilla, Joey Devine)
29. Brandon Morrow, SEA (Sean Green)
30. Manny Acosta, Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano, Blaine Boyer, Skip Caray, ATL

Lots of good news coming out about Peavy’s rehab. He said, “I feel good. Could probably take three Pujols line drives off the noggin’.” He wasn’t himself to start the year and then he revealed he had an arm issue. I think Peavy’s as good as Santana if not better when healthy. You won’t find a bigger fan of Peavy than me, but pitchers with arm issues? Eh. He’s real close to a tossup between Buy and Sell to me. What convinced me on Sell? I wrote Buy or Sell on the wall of my condo, then my pet unicorn stabbed Sell with her horn. (While getting sparkle dust all over my home office and setting my allergies into high gear. Also, and I don’t want to get preachy, but it so important to spay and neuter your unicorns and to buy them from reputable dealers. Unicorn mills are a problem and only “You A Can” help. But I digress.) I see Peavy pitching well for a start or three because he’s rested now, but within a month or two he’s going to be sore again and need another break and/or DL stint.  I know this is probably the last thing an owner of Peavy wants to hear, but I’m just trying to be conservative. I’m not proposing you sell him for anything less than his worth, but I am saying you sell him. Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball players to buy and sell:

Psyche! (Not the TV show.) Before I get into this week’s Buy and Sell, I wanted to let you know that we have a huge announcement coming this Sunday night and I just wanted to prep people now. So if you need to take heart pills for big announcements, you’ve been warned. (BTW, we’re not selling out or welcoming any new bloggers into the mix. We’re not joining any “Network.” Razzball won’t suddenly start writing about antiquing (we’ll ween you into that). We will not start charging money to read this shizz. We’re not changing anything really, so chillax. All we’re doing is… Well, you’ll see. Let’s just say I’m giddy for all of you to know.)

BUY

Ty Wiggington - Only three home runs thus far. He could get to 20 with 2nd base eligibility, how’s that for a happy ending in Ty-Land?

Ryan Doumit - If you’re still playing the catcher shuffle, Doumit’s coming back. For what it’s worth, my unicorn is a big fan of Doumit.

Micah Owings - Not as terrific as he was, but he’s still striking out three times as many as he walks. Waivers I say, he no belong.

Chone Figgins - He’s due back soon. Sure, it took him way too long to come back the first time, but he can still be had for cheap because his owners (if there are any left) are fed up with him. Unlike Furcal (who we’ll get to), Figgins seems to run fine when he comes back from extended absences.

Jose Contreras - Don’t look now, but Contreras is on a crazy good streak. Last night’s 7 IP, 1 ER win against the Royals comes on the heels of a 3-1 May where he had a 2.45 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 41 IP. On a more jaded note, those starts included SEA, TOR, and LAA (twice). And his K/BB was 25/12. So we upgrade him from ‘don’t own’ to ’stream starter.’ Hopefully he doesn’t quickly turn into a Cleveland Streamer.

Justin Masterson - He’s Jamaican and his next start is against the Mariners. High Times gives him their Smoking Blunt Seal of Approval™. (BTW, from the file of weird stats (Sorry, if this is your turf, Jayson Stark), the Mariners have struckout less than every other team. They also have walked the second least amount of times. Little League Coach of struggling team, “That’s it, just put it in play,” as he watches someone else groundout to 2nd base.)

Josh Anderson - Two steals in 10 ABs. He’s playing at least for the next two weeks while Kotsay mends. Anderson can steal 8 bases in the next two weeks.

Chris Carter - From the man that brought you Cancer Man, now comes a lefty slugger that should get some opportunities against righties while Papi mends. He’s worth a flier in AL-Only leagues.

Francisco Liriano - Probably will be back in late June, so depending on how aggressive your league is, you should grab him soon if you need a starter. Will he be the Liriano of old? No, not yet, but I’d grab him just to see if he’s still got it (which means, punch the wall to turn on the jukebox. Ayyyy…).

SELL

Jorge Posada - He’s back, but he needs labrum surgery and the Yanks are carrying three catchers because of their lack of faith in Posada. If you can trade Posada to someone for a piece you’re lacking, do it and grab Olivo (7 home runs and 23 RBIs in 127 at-bats) off waivers.

Travis Hafner - He’s swinging a bat again. Every bit of good news that comes out of the Pronk camp is an opportunity to sell him. Push that shizz as well as you can. For example, this is you talking to a leaguemate, “Yeah, he’s swinging a bat on his way to recovery! He was predicted to hit 30+ home runs this year, so he’s going to hit like 4 HRs every week for two months! Matter of fact, I just convinced myself not to trade Hafner! Okay, I’ll take Marmol for him.” (BTW, make sure you put exclamations on every sentence, except the one where you ask for a player. Like the The Quadratics sang, “That’s like taking candy from a baby…”)

Taipei Slinklo - I could have put any top closer here. If you’re sitting on a nine or ten in saves and your offense or starters are hurting, shame on you. Trade Taipei Slinklo? Pho sho!

Carlos Pena - I’d trade this schmohawk too, even if you’re selling low. I see him on his way, like Heidi Montag, to new bust territory.

Rafael Furcal - After taking five months last year to recover from an ankle injury and taking almost a month longer than he was supposed to for a back issue, makes me start to think he’s eating over at Nomar’s house too much. I’d try and move Furcal, he’s becoming way too brittle.

Radhames Liz - Not sure how the Orioles found another Daniel Cabrera, but they did. No wonder Leo Mazzone got out of Baltimore. (BTW, was it Glavine, Smoltz and Maddux or was it Mazzone? Part of me thinks Mazzone’s only real genius was figuring out if you rock back and forth on the bench people will think you’re some kind of Rainman savant. The other part of me feels like it’s blasphemous to even talk bad about Mazzone. Do you see how convincing that rocking is? You can’t even question it without feeling guilt. Okay, homework assignment, when your boss walks by your cubicle, rock back and forth then report to Razzball Nation your findings.)

It’s been a while since I went through all the major league closers and their setup men and where they should be ranked. So I figured I’d break it down for you because knowing all the closers and all of their setup man could be helpful for all of you. A million dollars and a naked Christina Ricci chained to your furnace could also be helpful, but I don’t have a furnace. Anyway, all the major league closers and their setup men seems like something all fantasy baseball players could use, so here it is. BTW, do you see how giving I am? I’m like Jolie-giving. Seriously, I should be wearing a habit and carrying a Malaysian orphan in a baby sling while talking on my solar-powered cellphone.

NO-BRAINERS

This tier is filled with a bunch of no-brainers (Papelbon — a no-brainer! Get it? Oofa!). These closers could get you the most in any trade. I would not hesitate to trade away any of these guys for the right price. In the end, closers are here to get you saves. You could end up with more saves from Rauch than Joe Nathan. When stacked with closers, unstack and trade.

1. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima)
2. Joe Nathan, MIN (Matt Guerrier, Dennys Reyes)
3. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA (Justin Speier, Scot Shields)
4. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Joba Chamberlain)
5. Billy Wagner, NYM (Aaron Heilman)
6. Brad Lidge, PHI (Tom Gordon)
7. Takashi Saito, LAD (Jonathan Broxton)

BRAINERS

These closers seem like they have a lot more risk than they actually do. It takes a real brainer to see how potentially valuable some of these brainers are. If you trade a no-brainer for a brainer and another player, you’re likely coming out on top.

8. Joakim Soria, KAN (Ramon Ramirez, Leo Nunez)
9. Francisco Cordero, CIN (David Weathers)
10. Jon Rauch, WAS (Luis Ayala)
11. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Scott Linebrink, Octavio Dotel)
12. Brandon Lyon, ARI (Tony Pena, Chad Qualls)
13. Trevor Hoffman, SDG (Heath Bell, Cla Meredith)
14. Jose Valverde, HOU (Doug Brocail)
15. Brian Fuentes, COL (Manny Corpas, Taylor Buchholz)
16. J.J. Putz, SEA (Brandon Marrow, Sean Green)
17. Matt Capps, PIT (Damaso Marte)
18. Brian Wilson, SAN (Tyler Walker)
19. Kevin Gregg, FLA (Renyel Pinto)
20. Kerry Wood, CHC (Bob Howry, Carlos Marmol)
21. George Sherrill, BAL (Bunch of Schmohawks)

BRAIN FREEZE

At some point soon, you’re going to squeeze your temples and grimace like you just ate a pint of Dreyer’s. All of these guys should be traded after they go on a string of few saved games, assuming they go on a string of a few saved games.

22. Huston Street, OAK (Keith Foulke, Joey Devine)
23. Troy Percival, TAM (Dan Wheeler, Al Reyes)
24. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Scott Downs)
25. Manny Acosta, Rafael Soriano, Blaine Boyer, et al, ATL (John Smoltz)
26. Rafael Betancourt/Masa Kobayashi, CLE (Joe Borowski)
27. Todd Jones, DET (Clay Rapada, Aquilino Lopez, Fernando Rodney)
28. Eric Gagne, MIL (Salomon Torres, G. Mota)
29. C.J. Wilson, TEX (Eddie Guardado, Joaquin Benoit)
30. Ryan Franklin/Russ Springer, STL (Jason Isringhausen)

On each Sunday we’re going to try and answer your 2008 fantasy baseball questions. Is this every fantasy baseball question we receive? No, but it’s a few of the better ones that were emailed directly to us at info[at]razzball.com. So if you want some fantasy baseball advice that can’t get answered in the comments section, then there you go. Please ask the minor questions i.e. Should I drop Chad Cordero for Santiago Casilla? (yes, you should) in the comment section. It’ll be a quicker answer there from Grey or I (or even a regular commenter). Thanks, we really do appreciate your support and feedback. (But if you try to hug me, it might get weird.)

QUESTION:

Now, I am not going to say which side of the deal I am on but here is a trade that went down in my league yesterday:

Team A agreed to deal Yovani Gallardo to Team B for Nick Markakis yesterday morning.  Unfortunately, we play in a league that votes on trades (I know…whole other topic there).  The commissioner announced the deal prior to the Brewers game.  Four votes trickled in before the news broke today regarding Gallardo being out for the year.

My question is this:

Should league owners be voting on this trade based on when the deal was agreed upon or based on circumstances that have occurred since then.

ANSWER:

Your league owners SHOULD be reviewing this trade without factoring in the injury news as that was the status of Gallardo when the trade was made.  Same as if Gallardo went out there and threw a no-hitter or gave up 8 runs in the first.

Whether they will or not is another matter.

I think there’s a fair argument that Markakis is worth more than Gallardo in any case.  Not enough that I would veto (Razzball is anti-veto) but the case could be made by a veto-friendly owner.  (The tough part is knowing whether the injury pushes them over the edge.)

Let us know how it turns out.

QUESTION:

In the 9-team 8×8 roto league with L, CG, K/BB, H, TB, and XBH added to basic Yahoo! 5×5.  I’m trying to become more independent of experts and pundits and such with my analyses and player projections, and I think I’m getting the hang of it.  What I would like to know is how you get your BAO, briefly, and what your BAO lines are for 2008.  I think I found your batting lines of

C – 47 / 13 / 57 / 2 / 0.273 (Paul Lo Duca, Johnny Estrada, AJ Pierzynski)
1B – 63 / 18 / 68 / 1 / 0.279 (Matt Stairs, Conor Jackson, Aubrey Huff)
2B – 79 / 11 / 61 / 9 / 0.288 (Orlando Hudson, Brendan Harris, Mark DeRosa)
SS – 72 / 11/ 60 / 11 / 0.279 (Brendan Harris, Jack Wilson)
3B – 70 / 18 / 72 / 4 / 0.279 (Kevin Kouzmanoff, Mark Reynolds, Aubrey Huff)
OF – 67 / 14 / 65 / 6 / 0.273 (Luis Gonzalez, Austin Kearns, JD Drew)

but I do not have anything for pitchers except a reference to Carlos Silva and 3.96 / 1.32.  What are the expectations for SP and RP BAO this year?

As for my team, I’ve done tons of trades since the beginning of the season and it’s changed quite a bit.  My current roster:

C - Geovany Soto
1B - Garrett Atkins
2B - Chase Utley
3B - Aramis Ramirez
SS - Ryan Theriot
OF - Matt Holliday
OF - Alex Ríos
OF - Carl Crawford
Util - Josh Hamilton
BN - Justin Upton
BN - Conor Jackson
BN - Evan Longoria
DL - Troy Tulowitzki

SP - Cole Hamels
SP - James Shields
RP - J. J. Putz
RP - Joe Nathan
P - Matt Capps
P - Javier Vázquez
P - Santiago Casilla
BN - Max Scherzer
BN - Garrett Olson
DL - Rafael Soriano
DL - John Lackey

Now for a few specific questions about my team, if you’d be so kind.  Is Putz something to worry about?  He pitched 94 and 95 mph consistently during that blown save, just never in the strike zone.  I already made an offer of Geovany Soto for Bobby Jenks today (Dioner Navarro and Jeff Clement are FA) just in case.  Next, I kicked Brett Myers to the curb the day before Gallardo blew his ACL.  Is the long toss really his answer, or is he trash this year?  I’m personally beginning to think he punched his wife on a ‘roid rage.  My other available options besides him are Jonathan Broxton, Wandy Rodríguez, John Danks, and Shawn Hill.  With Soriano likely losing his job to Smoltz I have also had an eye on Rich Harden, who may come back for 10 to 20 minutes in the near future.  What do you think?

Also if you see any glaring weaknesses in my team (besides CG, I don’t have one yet and am one of only 3 teams with none) let me know.

RUDY’S ANSWER:

Here’s the 2007 BAO for pitchers:
Starters - 11 W, 4.15 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 191 IP, 132 Ks
Relievers - 4 W, 6 SV, 3.31 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 68 IP, 61 K

(The 3.96/1.32 is the composite of the two)

The BAO methodology is laid out HERE.

I can’t provide it for 2008 as it requires having a full year of stats and then determining the replacement level totals for each stat for each position.  I could’ve done this based on 2008 projections but I moved to the Point Shares methodology (explanation and methodology HERE.  It’s an improvement in our eyes as it ties back to Roto points.

If you’re trying to do something based on BAO, I’d just work off the same totals as last year.  It’s too early to assume any major shifts between the two years.

I don’t see why you’d trade Soto for Jenks as you seem set on closers.  Too early to bail on Putz.  Nathan and Capps are solid.  I’d think Smoltz would close if he relieves, so Soriano would be out.  If you can get anything for him, go ahead.  Otherwise, he’s probably useless in your league.   Hamels, Shields, and Vazquez are a solid starting three.  Lackey is due back on May 14th.  Nice you got Scherzer.  Not sure why you have Olson - is he a friend of the family?  I don’t see any FA out there that would replace your pitching lineup so it’s not a big deal.

Tough break with Tulo.  Theriot is your weakest link but he’s been hot. Assuming no one is stashing SS on their bench, you should be able to rotate SS for a while.

Francisco Rodriguez went down with an injury. JJ Putz went down with an injury. Eric Gagne went down on his ‘trainer’ and asked for more ‘roids because he’s looked like crap ever since he stopped taking them. Closers come and go but one thing remains the same, you need saves. Now the best thing you can do is let go of what you paid at a draft and try and focus on value. This is even more pronounced with closers because they are really only as good as the saves they are getting you. So my advice is forget where you drafted your closers and begin to trade them away.

TRADE these closers NOW:

Brandon Lyon - I’m not saying trade him for Cristian Guzman, but you should try and get someone that can help your team, because soon Lyon won’t help at all. In his save yesterday, he looked like taco diarrhea. Blake DeWitt nearly hit a home run, Mark Sweeney(!) hit a bullet to Drew and Andruw Jones struckout on a ball three feet outside of the strike zone. Grab Pena, trade Lyon. You’re welcome.

Eric Gagne - He may not have value for too much longer. Get what you can. Riske and Turnbow haven’t looked much better, you say. Yeah, but this will be a headache all season. You should get out now with some value.

Rafael Soriano - He’s already on the DL. See if someone believes he can come back and stay healthy, because I don’t.

Huston Street - He’ll be sitting on your DL in June and you’ll be like, “Grey told me to trade him back in April. Man, I should’ve listened.” Every day you wake up and look at your team, you should expect Street to be on your DL, that’s a problem.

George Sherrill - Probably not a better sell high guy right now. If you trade him today, you might already have a quarter of his season’s saves. Trade this guy before this weekend while he’s still has peak value.

Jose Valverde - Last year he had a great year, before that he was a Croser (crappy closer). He doesn’t really have anyone breathing down his neck to take over but that doesn’t mean he can’t blow a bunch of saves.

Kerry Wood - Trade him while he’s still the closer. For Christmas sake, he gave up a home run to Jason Bay! Either an injury or lack of success is going to get the best (or worse) of him.

Brian Wilson - If you can even get anything for this guy, I’ll be impressed.

Chad Cordero - Trade him before he comes back and reveals that he’s still not healthy.

JJ Putz - He could be this year’s BJ Ryan. News sounds okay coming out about his rehab, so why not trade him before he re-injures himself?

DON’T TRADE any of these questionable closers (unless the deal is just too good to pass up of course).

Joe Borowski, Matt Capps, Brad Lidge, Todd Jones, Trevor Hoffman, Jeremy Accardo, Jason Isringhausen, Joakim Soria, Kevin Gregg, Troy Percival and last, and kinda least, CJ Wilson - If you can, trade Joe Nathan and somebody for Alexis Rios and one of these closers. The Indians don’t care that Borowski is hurting your fantasy team. They’re not replacing him. As I said a few days ago, Hoffman is not going anywhere. Matt Capps is fine. Brad Lidge, while a basket case, is not losing the job to Gordon. Todd Jones sucks dog balls, but he’s the closer. Whatever, you just want saves.

All other closers? They’re all tradable (in fact, everyone is for the right price). Papelbon? Try and get Miguel Cabrera. Francisco Rodriguez? I’m not that worried about this injury, but if someone’s making the right offer, pull the trigger.