Fantasy Baseball Advice

Okay, who put Jerry Blevins 498th?  He’s the greatest LOOGY of all-time… OF ALL-TIME.  Kanye shrug.  We’re using Yahoo for our Fantasy Razzball leagues. (You can win a mother-bleepin’ hot tub; are you kidding me?  Seriously.  Yes, I brought out the one word, “Seriously,” sentence, then brought out the expository sentence to mention I brought out the one word, “Seriously,” sentence.) Yahoo’s drafting and fantasy baseball team setup-ma-whosies is fine.  ESPN has its minuses, Yahoo has its pluses, then read that again in the mirror.  And just like there were problems with ESPN’s fantasy baseball rankings, I have issues with Yahoo’s.  I can’t go over every single difference of opinion, but you could just go to my 2010 fantasy baseball top 300 and use that.  Or go to the Point Shares and use that.  Or buy me an all-exclusive trip to Dubai and I’ll draft for you while skiing in a mall.  Sheik, if you want to go to the food court, may I suggest the ski lift?  That sounds splendid, I hope they have Chik-Fil-A. Anyway, here’s some huge differences in Yahoo’s fantasy baseball rankings compared to mine:

Troy Tulowitzki - 7 at Yahoo, 16 here.  Hey, I like Tulo just as much as the next man, but obviously not if that next man works at Yahoo.  As I’ve said many times before, Tulo’s career high in steals last year was nearly triple his previous career high, including the minors.  And he doesn’t start hitting until June.

Joe Mauer – 8 at Yahoo, 28 here.  I already dropped a Joe Mauer schmohawk bomb.

Justin Upton – 18 at Yahoo, 24 here.  I do enjoy J-Upside, but him at 18 and above Holliday?  Holliday was more valuable than Upton last year, and the year before and the year before and you get it.  No reason to think it suddenly stops this year for Holliday.  In the 2nd round, I want as close to a lock that I can get.  Sorry, Yahoo, now get your shinebox!

Ichiro Suzuki – 27 at Yahoo, 43 here.  I’ve been over his overratedness so much I’m beginning to think overratedness is a word.

Pablo Sandoval – 29 at Yahoo, 58 here.  Here’s what Grey (that’s me!) said about Sandoval, “It’s hard to not like a chubby guy who goes by the nickname, Kung Fu Panda.  Who doesn’t love pandas?  It’s unpatriotic (in China).  I love pandas so much I want a freakin’ panda dog.  If I had a kid, I’m dye the kid to look like a panda.  So, I do like Pablo Sandoval.  But there’s caveats.  He’s not really a home run hitter.  It would not shock me to see him hit 22 homers in 2010.  Also, his average last year looks to be on the high side.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see a .300 average instead of .330.  I like him, just be careful what you’re expecting.”  And that’s me quoting me!

Aramis Ramirez – 47 at Yahoo, 94 here.  Aramis overrated, underlined it.

Yovani Gallardo – 58 at Yahoo, 107 here.  That makes my job passing on him so much easier.

Michael Young – 64 at Yahoo, 93 here.  Young is a nice complimentary pick if you have a few low average guys, but, in a vacuum, Young bores.

Carlos Quentin – 164 at Yahoo, 54 here.  There’s a Carlos Quentin sleeper post and I have him over a 100 spots before in my rankings.  You think I might end up owning Quentin on a few teams?  Rhetorical!  Now remember what I said in the rankings companion piece.  Draft Quentin before someone else does, but that doesn’t mean wa³y before.

Geovany Soto – 172 at Yahoo, 127 here.  I wrote the Geovany Soto sleeper post for a reason.  Recognize!  Or don’t, your choice.

Dexter Fowler – 290 at Yahoo, 151 here.  My Fowler sleeper post was written in September.  Prescient ain’t just a word I can’t spell without Dictionary.com, it’s a state of mind!

Have to go through a lot other ‘perts’ turd nuggets to find some kernels of truth, right?  So I took a looksie at ESPN’s mock draft.  These guys (and maybe girls, cause I don’t even recognize some names — Becquey?  Is that the phonetic pronunciation of the Brooklyn-Queens Expressway’s abbreviation, BQE?  No idea.) make their living by doling out fantasy baseball advice, but, as Tim Gunn would say, the problem is they’ve been in the monkey house too long.  Here’s Gunn’s explanation, “When you first walk into the monkey house at the zoo, what do you do?  You cover your nose and think, “This place stinks!” After some time, you’ve adjusted a bit, “Well, I guess this isn’t so bad.”  Then later, you don’t even notice the smell.”  ESPN builds a bunker, doles out advice but has no idea what the stench is like.  To get poetic on you, they think their feces smells like Reese’s Pieces.

In that mock, they drafted Ian Stewart 163rd overall.  Wow, Stewart has an ADP of 120 at Mock Draft Central so that’s awesome value!  The only hitch is, there’s no way anyone’s getting Stewart that late in a draft if they draft with anyone but those ESPN readers who are also in the monkey house.  The monkeys at ESPN don’t even mention Stewart was good value at 163.  You know why?  Because they have no idea.  They don’t look at anything besides what’s written at ESPN.  It’s like Hurley from Lost doling out fantasy advice.  Jack’s doing surgery, Locke’s seeing shizz and The BQE is taking Ian Stewart 163rd overall.  Honestly, I’m not even sure if they have an internet connection in Bristol.  So this look at the monkeys’ mock draft may be constructive for those of you who are playing against other monkeys, but, in reality, we’re just mocking them.  Anyway, here’s some head scratchers from ESPN’s 2010 fantasy baseball mock draft:

Carl Crawford – 7th overall. Ha!  Seriously, I don’t even know what to say about this.  Michael Bourn is that different at around pick 100?  The saving grace to this pick is that it was made by Nate Ravitz, who, I believe, is the neighbor in Bewitched.  Could be wrong.

Joe Mauer – 14th overall.  Bewitched neighbor grabbed him too.  So with Mauer and Crawford he’s looking at about 35 homers combined for his first two picks.  Guess he’s punting power.  Yeah, he just lost.  Thanks for playing.

Ryan Howard – 18th overall.  This is the last player I’m looking at that was taken way later than they will normally go. (Kinsler at 21?!  Wait, did they do this mock draft in 2007 and forget to post it?)  Howard is a great pick at 18.  Again, ain’t happening in the real world, so I’m done looking at value picks in this draft.

Derek Jeter – 25th overall.  I actually like Tristan Cockcroft (who is a Yankee fan and maybe why he made this pick), but Jeter at 25th overall is just silly.  Maybe Cockcroft is hoping for a wedding invite.  Not sure; let’s not dwell.

Javier Vazquez – 61st overall.  That’s around where his ADP is,  but I have him ranked around 135th overall.  I might need to do an overrated post on him.

Yovani Gallardo – 69th overall.  The BQE goes for YoGa about 40 spots before he should, but not nearly as bad as…

Brandon Webb – 98th overall.  They are totally reprinting a 2007 draft just to see if anyone will notice.  Very sneaky.

James Shields – 152nd overall.  Not a pick I would make, but this isn’t so much about the time Shields was drafted.  The real knee to the balls is in the comments where they wrote, “Becquey takes James Shields with pick No. 152, and many lament that Shields is off the board.”  Why? Because of his mediocre K-rate?  Is it his increasing walk rate?  Is it his inability to pitch in away games?  Is it his division?  Are they using a new definition of lament?  Seriously, I have to stop before I get an aneurysm.

We have now posted the 2009 Point Shares for 12-team MLB leagues.

For those unfamiliar, Point Shares are our home-grown methodology (inspired by Bill James’ Win Shares) for rating fantasy players. They represent the estimated difference in an average fantasy team’s points if they were to substitute a given player for the average player at his position. For example, Albert Pujols’ 9.19 Point Shares mean he was worth 9.19 points more to the average team than an average 1B (closest player to ‘average 1B’ was Jorge Cantu). Point Shares are estimated for each statistical category – Pujols’ points are broken out as: 2.2 Runs, 2.1 HRs, 2.3 RBI, 1.0 SB, and 1.6 AVG.

2009 – Top 20 Point Shares

Our top 20 ended up with an even split of pitchers (9 SP/1 RP) and hitters with Zack Greinke taking top honors. You’ll see some similarities between the ESPN Player Rater and our Point Shares but we’ll point out two notable differences:

1) ESPN loves speedy players (is that why they employed Eric Young for more than a second?) – it generously credits SBs and doesn’t penalize weak HR/RBI. Where Crawford and Ellsbury are 5th and 6th overall and almost even with Braun in ESPN they are 17th and 21st in ours and over 2.5 points or $10 less valuable than Braun. I like SBs as much as the next fantasy player but Braun’s 113/32/114/20/.320 is going to help the average team a lot more than Crawford’s 96/15/68/60/.305. Take ESPN ranking of guys with high SBs with a grain of salt.

2) ESPN Puts Less Stock on Position Scarcity – Joe Mauer is #6 in our ranking vs. #17 in ESPN. Do you realize who the 4th most valuable catcher was in fantasy? Kurt Suzuki! Mauer’s stats for an OF would’ve qualified him for #17. As a Catcher, his stats were an easy top 10 value.

2009 – Top 20 Draft Values

In what should amount to no surprise to anyone who followed baseball in 2009, our Point Shares have Mark Reynolds as the #1 best value (using ESPN Average Draft Position). He wasn’t even drafted in many leagues yet ended up as the 15th most valuable fantasy player in the majors (according to Point Shares). 13 of the 20 best values are pitchers (9 SP, 4 RP) lending credence to the claim that pitchers are more unpredictable and more bargains may be available later in the draft.

Some Nostradamus awards go out to:
1) Sean Smith – the man behind CHONE. Let’s just say I was dubious when Javier Vazquez came up #2 using CHONE’s 2009. He ends up #7. Impressive.

2) Matthew Berry – It might’ve been an awkward interview we had with him last year but we asked for the best undervalued OF and he nailed it with Shin Soo-Choo.

3) Razzball. In my NL Blogger draft, I managed to snag 4 of the 11 NLers in the top 20 in value: Razzball 2009 crush / #1 value Mark Reynolds, #15 Huston Street, #18 Ryan Franklin, #20 Randy Wolf. The relievers were complete and utter luck but still…

2009 – Bottom 20 Draft Values

Interestingly, only 5 of the top 20 worst values are pitchers. (Note: If a hitter/pitcher missed the majority of the year, we capped their negative Point Shares as the lowest drafted slot – #260). This is a mix of tough breaks (Beltran, Reyes, Webb, Manny) with a few guys that we warned were being overvalued in drafts (Chris Davis, Francisco Liriano, Josh Hamilton). I don’t feel like giving out some anti-Nostradamus (Ignoramus?) awards but I will admit to drafting Geovany Soto AND Russ Martin in my NL Blogger Draft.

Last note: 2010 Point Shares based on CHONE data will be posted in the next week!

Went over the top 20 and top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball.  Now, friends, it’s time for the top 20 catchers for 2010 fantasy baseball.  The top 20 catchers are the glass of warm milk right before you go to sleep.  Hey, I just drafted Jorge Posada!  Snooze.  I love Kurt Suzuki this year!  Yawn.  I don’t draft top catchers in one catcher leagues.  The fifth best catcher and the 15th best catcher are tomato, to-blah-to.  Because I ignore the top catchers doesn’t mean I’m starting the top 20 catcher list at number twenty-one (Barajas?  What’s Spanish for punt?  Punta?); some of you might want to know the top catchers.  You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make them draft Napoli.  In two catcher leagues, catchers are a little more valuable, but I’d still prefer to avoid them.  You can see other top 20 lists for 2010 fantasy baseball under 2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings.  Listed along with these catchers are my 2010 projections for each player and where the tiers begin and end.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 catchers for 2010 fantasy baseball:

1. Joe Mauer – This is the first tier.  This tier ends at V-Mart.  I call this tier, “Well, if you’re going to take a top catcher, here they are.”  Went over Mauer’s projections in my top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball.

2. Brian McCann – Everyone has Victor Martinez in this spot, but I’m not everyone.  If you want to read everyone, I’m sure you can find them.  In 2010, McCann is going to be 26 years old; V-Mart is 31.  In one hundred extra at-bats last year, V-Mart only hit 2 more homers.  Am I predicting Martinez runs over a fire hydrant while Jason Varitek chases him with golf clubs?  No, that’s not what I’m saying.  He’s ranked 3rd for me.  Since I’m not drafting either of these guys outside of 2 catcher leagues, it’s all academic.  I think this is the year McCann can blossom, Joey Lawrence.  2010 Projections:  80/28/105/.295/3

3. Victor Martinez – As mentioned above (you are reading every nook and cranny, right, muffin?), V-Mart’s still as productive as they come.  His move to the Sawx only helped his value.  Though I do think the Sawx hitters are a lot more intimidating in theory than reality.  “Oh, no, Kevin Youkilis.  I’m scared.”  “Watch out, here comes a Latin 34 David Ortiz and he’s wearing a Snuggie cause his old man bones are cold.”  Yeah, I don’t think this is your slightly older brother’s Red Sox who regales you with tales of 2004.  2010 Projections:  85/25/110/.300

4. Matt Wieters – This is a new tier.  This tier ends at Napoli.  This tier is called, “I like these guys and would draft them, but I’m not drafting them before 100th overall.”  If you were to extrapolate Wieters numbers from last year and if extrapolate were the right word, you’d have a catcher who hit about 16 homers.  As my Jewish grandmother used to say, big whoop.  His splits were encouraging and he’s as talented as the hype is making him out to be.  I could see drafting him then trading him early in the season.  I predict his value will be at its peak just before the season begins.  As you’ll see from my projections, he’ll be good, but, in the end, he’s still a catcher.  2010 Projections:  70/18/85/.305

5. Miguel Montero – Montero’s not quite the .294 hitter he was last year and his HR/FB was a bit high, so we shouldn’t expect 20-plus from him.  I’ve seen a lot of fantasy baseball ‘perts put Posada around this spot in their rankings.  What’s Posada, 63 years old?  Bleh.  If Posada hits 22 homers again, I’ll eat my proverbial hat with a side of proverbial crow.  If you’re taking a catcher, why not at least take one with some upside?  2010 Projections:  65/17/80/.280

6. Mike Napoli – I’m a big fan of Napoli.  Owned him in leagues for the last two years.  Now I’m worried the people in the back of the room have finally caught up to what he can provide and he’ll be overrated.  Or worse, he’ll disappoint just to spite the bandwagoners.  He does not play every game.  You must know that when you draft him.  If you own Napoli, you must follow the Ron Popeil school of catchers and set him and forget him.  2010 Projections:  60/19/70/.260/5

7. Geovany Soto – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Iannetta.  I call this tier, “Post-hype fliers.”  Now remember I’m telling you to punt catcher, so when you see Soto at seven that doesn’t mean grab him in the top 100.  When I say I like Soto this year, it doesn’t mean go crazy with yourself.  He’s still just a catcher.  The reason why I like him and Iannetta this year is because at a shallow position you’re doing yourself a disservice if you don’t go for an upside pick.  To read more about Geovany Soto fantasy sleeper stuff.  2010 Projections:  65/18/80/.280

8. Chris Iannetta – This is my totally out of left field pick at catcher.  There’s no reason why he should be ranked this high.  He doesn’t even have a starting job.  And just because I have him this high doesn’t mean you draft him before someone else takes Posada or Suzuki or Russell Martin.  Iannetta will be there later on in the draft.  He hit 16 homers last year in 289 ABs.  He also had to battle a slew of injuries and a bad line drive rate.  Hey, it’s not all peaches and cream with Iannetta.  Still worth the flier.  2010 Projections:  50/17/65/.265

9. Jorge Posada – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Pierzynski.  I call this tier, “I wouldn’t draft these guys with your team.”  Posada’s on a great team and he’s shown few signs of slowing down.  He ended up in this tier because he’s just too overrated.  Last year’s homers were fluky.  Yes, I know the new Yankee Stadium plays like a Taiwanese Little League park.  There’s no way Posada’s good for 400 ABs.  He’s old as dog balls.  I give him 17 homers and I’m in a generous mood.  2010 Projections:  50/17/75/.280

10. Russell Martin – Martin is the opposite of the Post-Hype Sleeper pick.  He is the Still Overrated Because He Plays For The Dodgers pick.  If he played for the Pirates, you wouldn’t even think about drafting him.  He was deriving some value from his speed, but Torre’s abused him worse than the late-90’s Yankees bullpen.  On Bill James’s Speed Score, where 5 is average, Martin’s 2006 was 5.4; 2007 was 5.2; 2008 was 3.9 and 2009 was 3.3.  Soon, he’s going to need Lasorda to pinch run for him.  2010 Projections:  70/10/60/.280/10

11. Bengie Molina – The chunkier one of The Flying Molina Brothers.  Bengie yawnstipates me.  Is he really that different than Napoli?  No, not really, but he’s got as much upside as a dead parrot.  As of right now, he’s a free agent so he may drop further in these rankings depending on where he signs.  2010 Projections:  50/16/65/.270

12. Kurt Suzuki – I look at Suzuki and see a poor man’s Russell Martin.  That’s not a compliment.  2010 Projections:  65/12/65/.270/6

13. Yadier Molina – I see Yadier and I see a poor man’s Kurt Suzuki.  Yes, there’s a pattern emerging and it’s not pretty.  2010 Projections:  40/7/55/.285/5

14. A.J. Pierzynski – Please don’t draft A.J. Pierzynski.  2010 Projections:  55/12/65/.280

15. Ryan Doumit – This is the last tier.  I call this tier, “You’re obviously in a deep league so take a flier on some upside.”  Dear (fill-in deity of choice), I’m writing to you regarding Ryan Doumit.  All I ask of You is Doumit gets 400 ABs.  If you can make that happen, I promise to no longer cancel my girlfriend’s HGTV DVR recordings and pretend like I had no idea what happened.  2010 Projections:  50/16/60/.280/3

16. Buster Posey – I went over Buster Posey in 250-ish words in the Buster Posey 2010 fantasy outlook post.  2010 Projections:  55/14/65/.290/3

17. Tyler Flowers/Alex Avila – They need a starting job.  I’m working without a net here in January, so whether you draft them or not will be a March call.  You may need to even pick them up off waivers at some point in the season.  This won’t be the last time I write about them in the preseason, definitely will need to update them in spring training.  Flowers has great upside long term, but I’d keep expectations in check for 2010.  Or just remember Wieters’s 2009.  Avila has less upside long term, but more potential for 2010.  In the end, he’s really just some power.  Neither will be ownable unless they’re starting and hot.  Flowers’s 2010 Projections:  40/10/50/.275; Avila’s 2010 Projections:  40/12/55/.250

18. Kelly Shoppach - With Shoppach’s trade to the Rays, he gets a small boost.  He’s still a liability on average.  Though last year’s .214 looks like the outlier.  He’s closer to a .250 hitter.  He’s also still a plus on power.  If he can get 400 ABs, he could challenge 20 homers.  2010 Projections for Shoppach:  55/16/65/.245

19. Jesus Flores – You already know the schmohawks like Varitek and Barajas, so I wanted to end this list with some exciting names.   But, um, there’s not that many exciting names to be had.  Thankfully, most of you are in 15 team leagues are smaller with one catcher, so you’ll never have to even get this low.  And that brings us to Jesus Effin’ Flores.  (I have no idea why, but I always want to give him the middle name “Effin’.”)  Anyhoo, J.E.F. had a stress fracture in his shoulder last year which killed him, then arthroscopic surgery on his elbow…  Well, it’s real late in the catchers, what do you want?  These guys are longshots.  And, yes, Ivan Rodriguez is blocking Flores a bit on playing time.  2010 Projections:  55/15/65/.250

20. Ramon Hernandez – Trying to find an exciting 20th catcher to put on this list was torture.  Looked at John Baker — bleh.  Looked at the portmanteau of Jarlor Saltygarden — bleck.  Looked at Nick Hundley… Nick Hundley?!  Okay, let’s face it.  Young catchers usually disappoint.  So that left me with Ramon Hernandez.  Exciting, huh?  A healthy Ramon Hernandez could easily get the same numbers as Jorge Posada for half the price.  Now THAT’S exciting!!!  No, actually it still isn’t.  Oh, well.  2010 Projections:  55/17/65/.265

After the top 20 catchers for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s a few names, but this one stands out:

Carlos Santana – Here’s the deal broken down to you so simply that Larry The Cable Guy could understand.  Even if a rookie catcher or upside pick doesn’t produce, you lose him in the first month of the season for someone else.  Random schmohawk off of waivers will give you the same production as at least half of the catchers above.  As for Oye Como Va, he may not start the year in the majors, but if he does there’s upside there.  Check the 2010 fantasy baseball Carlos Santana post for further encouragement.  2010 Projections:  60/13/75/.280

Just went over the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball and today we give you our top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball.  Then we’ll go over the top 20 catchers for 2010 fantasy baseball then top 20 1st basemen and so on and so forth as we do onto our 2010 Fantasy Baseball rankings as you would want them done onto you.  In the top 10, I battled with maybe one or two spots, but this top 20 that I gave birth to was a true labor of love, battling with myself on just about every spot.  I’m pleased with what I settled on, but I could see an argument made to reshuffle some of these players.  The 2nd round is easily the hardest round to peg.  In some cases, I think I’d prefer the 3rd round to the 2nd round.  Yes, the 3rd round is the new 2nd round.  This will probably need its own post.  As always, tiers are mentioned and my 2010 fantasy baseball projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball:

11. Evan Longoria -  As mentioned in the top 10 rankings post, this continues the previous tier of players.  This tier started at Teixeira and will end at Wright.  Longoria feels like he should be in the Braun and Kemp class of players that could conceivably get better.  The strikeouts aren’t pretty and will hinder his average to an extent, but the power and speed are there.  He ranked above Wright because of his power.  At 3rd base, you want a guaranteed 30 homers more than a guaranteed 15 steals.  2010 Projections:  100/36/115/.280/10

12. Tim Lincecum – 12th was the absolutely latest I was able to rank a guy who has back-to-back seasons of 260 Ks.  Sure, I don’t like taking pitching in the early rounds, but it’s hard to argue with a guy whose FIP was 2.34 and who lowered his walk rate.  The only knock on Lincecum is his lower back issues towards the end of 2009 and his resemblance to k.d. lang.  2010 Projections:  18-5/2.70/1.00/250

13. David Wright – As I mentioned in the opening, this 2nd round is tricky and has a lot to do with who you took in the first round.  If you took A-Rod, then you don’t take Wright.  But imagine pairing Ryan Howard with David Wright.  That’s like pairing Boone’s Strawberry Hill with a chili dog.  That’s a meal fit for a king!  Prior to last year, three of the last four years Wright’s HR/FB rates were above 16 percent.  Last year, he had a home run to fly ball rate of 6.9.  So I’m chalking some of last year up to bad luck.  Now consider he’s still capable of 20 steals and a .300 average.  Even if Metco’s fences stay in the outer boroughs, Wright can be very valuable.  2010 Projections:  100/25/110/.300/17

14. Ian Kinsler – This begins a new tier.  This tier is called, “Why is the 2nd round so tricky this year?”  This tier goes from here to Gonzalez.  I can’t remember a year when I’ve been so legitimately flummoxed with the 2nd round.  Is Kinsler great?  Sure.  Do I feel 100% confident in him?  As about as confident as I would practicing the withdrawal method with Octo-Mom. Kinsler isn’t a great average hitter, but he’s better than the .253 he showed last year.  He’s not a .300 hitter either.  He’s a near lock for 25/25 at 2nd base and that carries a lot of weight.  Is he that different than Brandon Phillips? They’re both six-feet tall, weigh around 200 lbs, injured more times than I’d like and their birthdays are six days apart. Maybe they’re one player pulling The Alex P. Keaton When He Had Two Dates For The Prom And He Had To Keep Switching His Tie trick.  2010 Projections:  110/29/80/.270/34

15. Matt Holliday – I just went over my Holliday fantasy last week so I’m not going to beat Secretariat.  I’ll only say that I don’t think Holliday is necessarily the hitter we saw in the 2nd half times two.  He goes on hot streaks, that’s what last year’s 2nd half was.  In 2006 and 2007 on the Rockies, he hit 10 and 12 homers in the month of September respectively.  In 2005, he hit 15 homers post-All-Star Break and four before.  When the games are on the line for real baseball and H2H, Holliday is there.  Sometimes that’s frustrating with roto.  2010 Projections:  105/28/115/.320/15

16. Troy Tulowitzki – I tried to drop Tulo as low as I could because he’s deriving a lot of his value from his 2009 steals.  As I said at the end of the season last year, “I wish I believed in all of the steals he racked up this year, but his total is about three times the most he’s ever recorded in any season of professional ball.  Still, he’s good, and can get a bit better on the power side.”  And that’s me quoting me!  The reason why I couldn’t drop him any lower is because of his position, his park, his age and his power.  Remember if you draft him, he doesn’t start playing until May at the earliest.  2010 Projections:  95/35/105/.280/12

17. Grady Sizemore – I already went over in my Grady Sizemore 2010 fantasy baseball post-a-ma-thing-whosies.  After his girlfriend revealed photos of Grady visually detailing his sports hernia recovery, he revealed he’d be ready for the start of 2010.  I believe him.  2010 Projections:  110/27/80/.270/25

18. Jose Reyes – Wait, so he’s washed up at the age of 26?  So he went from a top three pick to out of the top 20 because he was injured last year?  C’mon.  This isn’t about last year.  Sure, he was a miserable prick last year for getting injured and ruining your fantasy team.  How dare he!  But that was last year.  2010 Projections:  115/13/65/.285/50

19. Carl Crawford – Every time I looked at Crawford, I kept thinking to myself, where’s Ellsbury?  They should be right next to each other, shouldn’t they?  After all, their names together sound like a law firm.  Crawford benefits from just a bit more power, but his knees are getting creaky and we rely on his speed for a lot of his value.  Honestly, I’m hoping he gets off to a hot start and I can tell you to sell him at the end of May.  2010 Projections: 110/14/65/.290/50

20. Adrian Gonzalez – The 20th pick is not an easy one.  I pieced together different draft scenarios with glue and old issues of TV Guide and it spelled out A-Gonz.  If my fantasy baseball ransom note meant Alex Gonzalez, I apologize.  I just can’t get past that I want a 1st baseman in the first few rounds.  And, most importantly, I want a guy I can rely on.  Votto is great, but he probably won’t sniff 35+ homers, Morneau is fine but his power and health are wonky, Carlos Pena is fine, but he’s a .250 hitter going on a .230 one.  Obviously, if you own Fielder, Tex or Howard, you’re not taking Gonzalez.  I think last season was Gonzalez’s power peak, but it was still solid.  He should more or less maintain it.  One thing to be aware of is his involuntarily climbing walk rate.  That’s what hitting behind Sub Standard and in front of Nadir Bupkis will do to you.  2010 Projections:  90/38/100/.280

After the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but here’s two big names that were purposely omitted:

Joe Mauer – Just went over the overrated Mauer and Mark Reynolds overrated posts.  But I felt that I needed to address the two elephants in the room again.  Mauer’s HR/FB rate was through the roof last year.  In 2008, he hit 139 fly balls and 9 homers.  In 2009, 137 fly balls and 28 homers.  There’s no way he hits 28 homers again.  Then throw in the wear and tear he takes at his position and how he’s already battled more injuries than the “merely a flesh wound” guy.  Then throw in he’s tops at a weak position.  I.e., is there that much difference between him and Napoli?  Sure, on average and Runs.  Not much elsewhere.  See catcher, punt catcher.  2010 Projections:  100/20/85/.330/3

Mark Reynolds – Guys (and two girl readers), this is 2010.  Don’t draft for 2009.  Reynolds had an incredible year last year and hit .187 in September.  What if he hits .187 in April and June?  You’re gonna be looking to start a midseason fantasy baseball league cause your preseason one got bungled.  2010 Projections:  85/35/95/.250/12