Fantasy Baseball Advice

Followers of Razzball know this site has a concise strategy when it comes to saves: SAGNOF. In short, 30 saves is 30 saves, so why pay Papelbon for the privilege of providing them, when you can get them on the cheap from Brian Wilson?

Followers of Baron Von Vulturewins know that the Baron is the greediest, horniest, dirtiest, most shameless saves-whore around. (For patented strategy, see comment under this post. How shameless? Well, if the Baron found Jensen Lewis lying dead by the side of the road, he’d shake the corpse by the ankles just to see if five saves fell out. (Last year, 13 fell out.)

In short, me love the Junky Closers.

A common objection is this: Sure, Junky Closers give you dirty, dirty saves, but just how much will Joe Borowski/Brian Wilson/C.J. Wilson/Carnie Wilson hurt my team in other categories? Won’t he poop all over my team ERA and WHIP while hurting me in Ks?

To which the Baron says: Good question. Let the numbers speak!

Let’s start with ERA. In my regular league (12 team mixed league roto), we play with a 1300 IP maximum, which is pretty standard. Last year, the winning ERA was 3.25. (Dude had Halladay.) Now, I’m no mathemagician, but in that scenario, that means the pitchers on Team X – let’s call them the Dribbling Nozzles – gave up roughly 469 runs.

Now, let’s say that the Nozzles carried a Mint Closer like Nathan all year (39 saves, 1.33 ERA), who gave up just 10 ER. Now let’s replace Nathan with a year’s worth of Junky Closer/SAGNOF favorite/obese housebound harmonizing genius Brian Wilson (41 saves, 4.25 ERA), who gave up 32 ER. Big difference, right?

Well, when we make this swap the Dribbles team ERA balloons to – wait for it! — 3.40. So the difference between Nathan (arguably the best reliever last year and a costly 5th round pick) and Wilson (lame-ass 17th round workaday schmo), is about .15 points of team ERA. Which in our league would have slipped the Dribbles from first in ERA down to, um, a tie for first. Total loss = 1/2 point — you know, like in that old karate video game.

Of course, in a tighter race, this could have meant losing a point or even two. But in that tight of a race, you’re probably not wishing you drafted Nathan instead of Wilson. You’re probably wishing you hadn’t RUN IAN SNELL OUT WEEK AFTER AGONIZING WEEK FOR, LIKE, TWO MONTHS.

But wait, you say! Wilson was actually pretty decent for a Junky Closer. Okay, then let’s swap in the most turdtastic closer in recent memory, Mr. Joe Borowski circa 2007, when he tallied 45 saves and a malodorous 5.07 ERA. If you traveled back in a time machine, drafted Blowrowski, transported him to 2008, and replaced Nathan with him – well, then your 3.25 team ERA wouldn’t swell to 3.40. It would swell to 3.43.

Keep in mind that top closers actually accumulate very few IP, usually around 70 (or about 5% of your season total). So even a bloated, ugly, horror-movie-quality ERA (like 5.07) means relatively few runs added to your total ER, and thus a small total effect on your team ERA. The gap between Nathan (10 ER) and Blowrowski (37 runs) is just a net gain of 27 ER, or roughly one bad outing by Aaron Harang in Coors.

Now onto WHIP. Our league’s WHIP leader last year (same team, surprise, surprise) was at 1.20. Swapping out Nathan for Wilson raises that to 1.22. Swapping in Borowski ‘07 raises it to 1.23.

Not exactly the final minutes of the Hindenburg.

The Nozzles did pretty badly in strikeouts, finishing 9th with 1075. If they’d had Papelbon (77 Ks), not Borowski ‘07 (58), the 19 extra Ks would have moved them up one place in the standings. But, really, is 19 Ks – i.e. one-and-a-half Lincecum starts — really going to make your break your season? What are you, made of baby-juice?

Obviously, you have to adjust this for your particular league, rules, roster-sizes, etc. But the basic point is: Grabbing Paps or Nathan early might gain you a point or two overall, assuming he doesn’t pull a Putz and blow out his elbow. But ask yourself this: How many extra points would you have gained by using that 5th round pick on a stud OF instead of Papelnuts?

The only category where closers add real value is – wait for it — saves. And Joe Borowski’s 45 saves are exactly as valuable as Jon Papelbon’s 45 saves. And a whole heck of a lot cheaper.

Now ask yourself this: If you have a time machine, why are you using it to go back in time and draft Joe Borowski and not to kill baby Hitler?

Seriously, you should have killed baby Hitler.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere.  To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team.  We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2009 Indians Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Craig Lyndall from Cleveland/Ohio State sports blog WaitingForNextYear.

1) What the Pronk is up with Hafner?  Do you think Dr. Freeze’s shoulder cleanup will have a big effect or is Hafner’s performance or is he just a massively noggined flash-in-the-pan?

Pronk is a 50/50 proposition right now in my mind.  The Indians organization is floating stories about other players who have had that surgery and they say they expect him to return to productivity.  That being said, they could just be acting like a cheerleading squad because they are on the hook for almost $60 million for the next 4 seasons.  So, it could be wishful thinking on their part.  Also keep in mind there are some fans out there that are willing to also look at the timing of Travis’ decline and use the word “steroids” under their breath.  I don’t buy into that personally, but it is out there.  Pronk has a lot to prove this season, and it could turn out to be a nice story for fans if he can return to something resembling the guy who used to get MVP votes.  But like I said, 50/50 proposition at this point.

2) Who do you think will be the ace of the Indians staff by the end of 2009 – Cliff Lee, Fausto Carmona, or a wildcard candidate?

I think Cliff Lee will remain that staff ace.  Carmona might end up coming back this season and being effective like he was in the past, but it isn’t something you can bet on.  Cliff Lee on the other hand looks so consistent in his motion from the beginning to the end of games that you have to think as long as he is healthy he will find his groove again.  That isn’t to say he can put up Cy Young numbers again, but if you look at Lee over his career, consistency was always the word for him.  4 out of the last 5 years he has pitched 30+ starts.  3 out of the last 5 years he pitched 200+ innings.  Carmona certainly doesn’t have that track record yet.  Just to give you a hint of the Cleveland fan’s mindset, I think in our podcast at the end of the season, we briefly discussed whether or not trading Cliff Lee right now made any sense.  We were probably half kidding.  That means we were also half serious.  Confidence isn’t a motto for Cleveland fans.

3) The Indians have a lot of hitters who project to be fair-to-average hitters.  Which of this group do you think will most exceed expectations:  Kelly Shoppach, V-Mart, Shin-Soo Choo, Ben Francisco, Ryan Garko, or Asdrubal?

Well, in Cleveland, we keep V-Mart in a class above the other players you mentioned.  So excluding him, I think the best chance to exceed expectations for me personally is Asdrubal Cabrera.  Cabrera risked looking like a flash in the pan with his early season struggles both on the field and with his weight and conditioning last season.  But he turned it around in the second half of the year, presumably taking the temporary demotion to the minors to heart.  Now that the sophomore slump is in the books, I am hoping that he can put together his first complete season at the major league level.  It is also another year of experience playing almost exclusively at second base, which should help, given that his natural position has always been short.  On top of that we always root for Asdrubal because of all the dirty nicknames you can use with him and that first name of his.

4) Will Grady Sizemore stay in the leadoff spot throughout 2009 given that he’s clearly the team’s best hitter?  If he moves to the middle of the lineup, how much do you think his SBs will suffer?

I predict Grady will stay the leadoff hitter mostly because of the stubbornness of Indians manager Eric Wedge.  I am kind of hoping that his stolen base numbers will “suffer” this season regardless of where he bats.  I am hoping that the Indians can get a couple guys in the lineup to produce so they don’t have to spend so much time stealing bases and hitting and running.  Mark DeRosa isn’t exactly like adding Mark Texiera, but he is just the kind of guy the Indians need to help solidify their lineup and help push down a few of the more questionable, and inexperienced batters.  Grady doesn’t hurt the team batting leadoff, except when you are relying on a young guy like Ben Francisco to hold down the two and three holes.  Of course cancel this response completely if at any point this year the Indians have to rely on David Dellucci for “production.”

5) Are you concerned that Kerry-to-Kelly sounds more like 7th grade girls passing notes in class than a fearsome 9th inning pitcher/catcher combination?  Or are you just relieved that you don’t have to sit through another year with Wickmen or Joe-Bo?

Well, Kerry to Kelly sounds a heck of a lot better than the Cavs basketball combo of Sasha to Boobie.  On second thought Sasha to Boobie is just hot.  (Wait, what?)  I digress.  Tribe fans are happy to bet on a career injury history like Kerry Wood’s if it means a guy who can get a strikeout every now and again.  I honestly think it has been since Mike Jackson since the Tribe had a strikeout closer.  I think everyone is just hoping that Kerry Wood chooses something other than Staind’s “Pay to Play” as his warmup music, because there will instantly be flashbacks of an injured Joe Borowski straining his neck to watch the line drives fly out of the park.  These flashbacks subsequently could give fans more coronaries than the nacho cheese at the ballpark ever could.

Jon Lester threw a no hitter against the Kansas City Royals yesterday (in case you were in a cave and didn’t hear). That goes to show you what getting rid of a locker room cancer can do for a team. Going forward, I see nothing remarkable from Lester. Just one of those things that happens. If you decide he needs to be on your team because you’re a sucker for feel-good stories, you should expect to take a hit on WHIP. It’s not just the walks, he gives up hits by the truckload, as well. Let someone else grab Lester and be the martyr. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Jake Peavy – Jake Peavy is going on the DL with a bad elbow. Padre fans moan, “Why couldn’t it have been ANY of our hitters….well, except A-Gonz.” Don’t panic on Peavy; he’s been on the DL before. You’re not going to get good value for him anyway.

Albert Pujols – Pujols hit 2 HRs in Petco. Impressive. Ryan Ludwick hit a HR and a double. Impressive and a bit more surprising. Cesar Izturis hit a homerun in Petco. Did they build another shorter fence for the game like they did in the Astrodome for the Bad News Bears?

Aramis Ramirez – If you can somehow trade a hot starter (Volquez!) for him, do it. Aram’s the quietest .300/35/100 guy in recent memory.

Geovany Soto – Soto’s done everything else, why wouldn’t he get an inside the park in under 17 seconds? Why? No reason, so he did.

Josh Hamilton – Now Josh Hamilton lets his bat say crack.

Joe Borowski – How anxious are the Indians for Blowrowski to return? The Indians said they want him to only throw one inning in the minors. I’m sure Borowski’s fantasy owners are just anxious.

Adam Dunn – Dunn hit another home run. If he hits in 8 straight, the Reds owner promised he’ll let Dunn bring his pet blue ox, Babe, into the clubhouse.

Frank Thomas – Frank Thomas hit 2 HRs. More amazingly, he made it around the bases twice.

Alex Rodriguez – Looks ready to return on Tuesday. Looks like Eric Karabell’s sister, Stephania Bell’s prediction that Arod will be out until the All-Star break might be a bit wrong.

Brett Myers – In The Bank, Punchy would’ve gave up at least three more runs against the Nats. If Myerly were a word, it would mean struggling.

Shawn Hill – He’s going to be skipped because of elbow soreness. I said he’d be very usable when pitching, I never said he’d stay healthy.

Max Scherzer – If Doug Davis were returning from a suspension because he had drank a quart of Popov and urinated in the Chase Field pool, then I’d say Scherzer might hold his rotation spot, but Davis is returning from cancer. I mean, c’mon, it’s The Big C. That’s some feel-good shizz. BTW, Big week for cancer survivors.

Howie Kendrick – Word on the Streets of Bobby Grichville, Kendrick is going to need at least another week.  I’m not a huge fan of him when he’s healthy and it’s beginning to seem like he may never be healthy.

USA Today might no longer appreciate the insights shared by Larry King in his long-running column but we at Razzball were thrilled when he accepted our invitation to share his thoughts on Fantasy Baseball….

Hello, fantasy baseball fans in America and abroad! Hope your teams are doing better than mine – I keep forgetting that the Dodgers no longer play in a hitter’s park….Am I the only one who gets Grady Sizemore and Brady Anderson mixed up?….One of my favorite players is David Ortiz because we have so much in common – bad knees, we’re older than we claim, and we both like being called Big Papi….Glad to see David Eckstein land in Toronto – I just hope they keep the dome closed during day games to protect his skin….Forget Hollywood, the best director of a cast of characters in LA is Joe Torre. I drafted all four Dodgers OFs just to be a part of it….CC Sabathia’s starts remind me of my prostate exams – I keep hoping for a happy ending but I just end up coughing and looking to the side….Am I the only one that gets Cracker Jack and Crunch ‘n Munch mixed up?….Sorry Mr. Westbrook but the best Jake pitching today is Jake Peavy….SF’s Brian Bocock is the best amateur middle infielder I’ve seen since Billy Crystal….The most insightful Baseball Tonight personality is John Kruk – boy am I glad he’s not in my fantasy baseball league….second most insightful Baseball tonight personality is a 14-way tie….I feel bad for Chad Cordero and Joe Borowski as I lose things all the time too….If Michael Bourn and Carl Crawford ran a race, I’d recommend that the spectators not blink…..Am I the only one that gets Jose Mesa and Jose Valverde mixed up?…..If managing baseball is like a game of chess, Dusty Baker is a Grandmaster…..The only thing hotter than the weather and the women in Arizona are the trio of Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, and Micah Owings…they go as well together as my face and a pair of fake knockers….