Poker players tend to make good DFS players.  Some of the top DFS pros are former poker pros.  I think there are several reasons for this occurrence.  First, there’s the element of the grind that is familiar, then there’s of course a similar aspect with bankroll management and also there’s a familiarity with odds and statistics.  There’s a lot of carry over and I want to chat a little about one of my favorite carry overs.  Most self respecting poker players have at least perused Doyle Brunson’s Super System.  This book is a bible on playing power poker.  For those that might be unfamiliar with the book and/or the term, it’s an aggressive style of play, but not being aggressive just for the sake of being aggressive.  It’s calculated aggression.  One of my favorite takeaways from this book was playing your rushes.  The cliff notes of Brunson’s thoughts when it comes to playing a rush is this: after he wins a hand in no limit hold ‘em, he plays the very next hand regardless of what two cards he is dealt.  If he wins that hand, he’s in the very next one and so on and so forth until he loses a hand.  In each of these subsequent hands, he’s a little more loose than normal.  This is something I always do when I play cards and it carries over to DFS for me as well.  If I have a winning night, you can bet I’ll be playing the next night.  If I win again, I’ll be right in there the next night as well, this time maybe making a jump to a higher buy-in tournament than I typically play.  Rudy would probably jump all over this saying there’s no data that backs up “running hot” or being on a “heater”, but that’s no fun.  There’s times where the lineups almost build themselves and things just click.  Maybe it’s a little thought of player that you’re riding or an underpriced player you are plugging and playing (Billy Burns at under $3K for 3 weeks anyone?).  Whatever the reason, have a little fun with your winnings and take a couple shots when you’re hot.  Now, let’s get to some picks to start that hot streak.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 18 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Cody Anderson took a perfect game into the 7th inning yesterday and ended up with a line of 8 IP, 1 ER, 2 baserunners, 2 Ks, and his ERA is at 0.57 thru two starts. The Indians staff just keeps getting sexier. Now their rotation is Cody, Corey, Danny, Trevor and Carlos. Sounds like a boy band, K-Nudo. Only Cody doesn’t strike out as many — he’s the sensitive one. Anderson has an interesting backstory. He’s from Idaho, and he signed with the Tribe out of a junior college for $250,000. Imagine that. One day, Anderson’s asking ma if they have to eat potatoes yet again for dinner and saying a lot of “Aw, geez,” then he signs for a quarter of a million dollars, which is more than the state economy of Idaho. Suddenly, he was able to purchase the state of Idaho and all its trout. (I have no idea if they have trout there, but Guy Fieri seems to stop at a Diner and/or Drive-In and/or Dive at least once a week in Idaho for trout.) “Aw, geez, ma, I have to pay to pave highways now? Money is evil!” As for fantasy, Anderson’s not quite as big city-ish. He has very few Ks thru two games, but he does throw hard-ish (93 MPH fastball) with a decent slider, and he also has decent control. His minor league numbers portend a mid-rotation guy at best and he’s not at his best yet, so there’s still room to grow, but I’d let him grow on someone else’s team in mixed leagues. If you wanna check the Stream-o-Nator on him, go for it, but outside of AL-Only leagues, I wouldn’t own him yet. Just as I wouldn’t eat trout from Idaho. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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I love me a hot schmotato almost as much as I love me a hot Latina. [Jay’s Note: I prefer the angry Latina.] Yes, it is true, I love Latin women more than fantasy baseball, except this week, when I love me some Eddie Rosario. He’s been a warming hitter looking primed to have a break out sooner than later, and I’m betting my money on this week. I know he has nothing to do with Rosario Dawson but I’ll take any chance to look at her pics and this beautiful gif (I couldn’t put that in the article for fear Jay would of removed it). It’s crazy to think she started her career in Kids and how much of a game changer that flick was. Will Eddie R be a game changer for you this week? I like the chances for that to occur and if you keep reading I will do my best to convince you why I like him, but before I do that, one more Rosario Dawson clip for the road… okay maybe not, the Alexander clip is very NSFW, but you can look it up on your own.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

The Kraken of 06010 fame, Jason Heyward, has erupted. Heyward has gone 12-for-24 this past week with an eye popping 1.478 OPS. He has homered in three consecutive games, going 1-for-3 with a dinger and 3 RBI last night. Heyward has had some unfair comparisons thrown his way early in his career, even picking up the outrageously unfair “J-Hey Kid” nickname in his rookie season. He is a man child, looking well past his age, kind of like Greg Oden or LeBron James, so let’s not forget that he is still just 25 years old. Heyward hit 27 homers in 2012 with a .814 OPS but has since posted disappointingly low totals. With 9 homers on the year, he is now on pace for about 21. I could see him doing a bit better than that. I’m going to predict that his year-end OPS sits right around .800. I’m buying.

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I remember back to the heydays of the public service announcement that would grace the network telecasts of things like baseball games. (Sidenote: Apparently I also remember back to the days when folks would use the word heydey….and folks.)

One such PSA was on peer pressure and it would feature a couple of kids: One doing something they shouldn’t be doing and the other hesitating on whether to do the same or stand strong. Inevitably, the ne’er do well of the duo would say something influential like “Come on, do it.” and “Go ahead, try it, everybody’s doing it.”

Some people in the DFS realm might tell you not to roster two starting pitchers together in the same game. The thinking is that you’ll limit yourself in the all-important win points from the SP if both pitchers are in the same game. After all, only one may win.

But in DraftKings, that win isn’t always the carrot you need to chase when it comes to starting pitchers. A nice cash game score in DK would be around 120-130. A win is four points, which isn’t insignificant, but it’s a mere pittance compared to the overall number. On another site, you might see a win being worth four points, too, but the point total to cash will be around 40. So while a win is worth almost 10 percent of the cash line for that site, a win is worth around .03% on DraftKings. This frees you up to take on more risks with pitchers that may not win, but are in good positions to score some value for you.

One such situation is occurring tonight in Pittsburgh, where the Cincinnati Reds and the hometown Pirates are sharing a Vegas line of 6.5, with Gerrit Cole established as a significant favorite (-190). In situations like this, on a weak SP slate as it is tonight, you may want to tackle both sides of the 6.5 line.

The Pirates are 22nd against RHP this season and 24th overall over the last 14 days, both with over a 20% K rate. Mike Leake isn’t awesome, but he’s solid, especially on this slate, rocking a 3.20 SIERA, 3.1 K/BB ratio and a 54% groundball rate over the last 30 days.

Sure, Cole looks great and is worth being rostered at home with his nine Ks/9 IP, great control, a high groundball rate of his own and a 3.03 SIERA over the last five starts. But why not roster both?

Everybody’s doing it.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Maikellebrew strikes again! And again! Two homers last night for Maikel Franco (4-for-5, 3 runs, 5 RBIs, hitting .312), his 8th and 9th homers of the season in only his 36th game played. That prorates to, like, 189 homers in a season. (Don’t do the math.) Perhaps I’m drenched in jade, the mother jewel of sarcasm. Perhaps my cup runneth over with Blasé like a bored rapper. Perhaps I’m all cosmopolitan and citified and other words Charlie Manuel would call me, but why do I get the feeling Maikel is going to have a great rookie year than disappoint for the next three years? Has Bruce, Heyward, Machado and so many others taken away my innocence? Is that a Black Flag bumper sticker on a Cadillac? Don’t look back, I can never look back. I sure hope I’m wrong, but with each homer by Maikel, his hype grows and he moves further away from my clutches. But, if we are to entertain the insane for a moment, he’s only 22 years old. What does his future hold? Does only the papier-mâché head of Michael Jack Schmidt that sits on Prospect Mike desk hold the answers? Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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What is not to love about Marlon Byrd? He is one of twenty-one hitters who have 49 homeruns over the past two seasons, and is on pace this year to hit over 20 bombs again. He has been on the DL since June 2nd and just came off this past Friday. I understand the batting average is something to be concerned with, but even if that’s your issue, he is still a donkey (the flying donkey to be exact), and donkeys are useful… and they are really darn useful in fantasy baseball. You rent them like a lady-friend on a trip to Vegas, and if they bring you some winnings, you keep them around a few days to give you a place to rest your hand. Now, like our friends in Vegas, you never keep them around any longer than your trip. Byrd could be a creep-to-own, so be prepared to hold if he comes out of the gate hot. But enough about Byrd, I’ll cover him below. It’s Fathers Day today, and being that my dad introduced me to the Yardbirds, I wouldn’t be me if I didn’t add some title-related links into the fold, as I know you enjoy it and I think it irks Jay.

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Happy Father’s Day to all of my fellow fathers out there. May your days be filled with copious amounts of meat, and a responsible amount of beer. I mean let’s not get out of hand here. But I don’t need to tell all of you that because we’re all responsible adults. Forgive me if a ramble a bit in this week’s post; I just got back from a Cuban themed BBQ complete with a Latin jazz quintet, open bar, and weird fat white lady rolling cigars. So what can I say, I’m a few mojitos deep and ready to talk some daily fantasy baseball. I thought of featuring nothing but Cuban players but then I couldn’t talk about Jose Quintana!! Was that an awkward segue? Yeah it was but whatever, let’s move along. Jose Quintana faces the Rangers today and the Streamonator loves him. So much so that he’s priced at a $23.1 value which is the second highest rank of the day, just below Masahiro Tanaka and above Matt Harvey. I’m sure the SoN is factoring in the Rangers struggles vs LHP, in particular that 23.9% K%. Quintana’s ratio have been a bit skewed by three bad starts earlier in the year and the others have been consistently 6+ innings, under 3 earned, and 5 plus K’s with some potential for more. He’s your typical high floor value play on DraftKings. He’s priced economically at $7,300 which gives you some coin to pair him with Matt Harvey or Tanaka.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 20 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Remember when you used to open a pack of baseball cards and were only looking for the rookies? DFS Fantasy Baseball has been just like that for me this season. Instead of sliding my thumb from left to right on paper, it is now sliding up and down on my cell phone, looking for players like Kris Bryant, Joc Pederson, and Carlos Correa. I can’t remember a season where this many rookies have made such huge impacts early on. In DFS, DraftKings will price rookies that have just been called-up really cheap. Kyle Schwarber was only $2,200 on the first day he played. Now he is $4,000. Even at that price, he’s still a good option, especially at the Catcher position.The Cubs prospect was the best hitting player in the minors until his call-up a few days ago. Play him while you still can because it’s been said by Cubs’ management that he’ll be sent back down to the minors after the interleague games. By this time next week you’ll be back to picking your Catcher last and not caring who you pick. As much as I love the rookies, playing them in DFS can be daring. It’s important to look at the match-ups even more so than other players. I’m definitely staying away from a rookie hitter when facing a top pitching ace. Check out some more rookies I like today.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

 

That face says it all. It’s the face of a man who’s seen some $hit. Like a DK LU that rostered Carlos Frias for his -18 point implosion. I mean, the scarring just don’t heal. It’s also the face of our humble…oh who am I kidding, braggart lothario Overload Grey Albright. A long time back (in fantasy baseball, 2 years ago really is a long time back), his Royal Stacheness had Erasmo Ramirez pegged as a sleeper and who could blame him? Solid minor league numbers to go along with a great home ballpark with a team that had a good track record of bringing good, young arms along. The stars were aligned and it looked like Erasmo was destined for greatness. And then he started pitching…woof. Everything he throws just dances which is great if he knew where he was throwing it. Erasmo got lit up but not like the way Buckcherry meant it. That’s illegal. Either way, he was chucked aside by the Mariners to the Rays and considered a forgotten man…but if you’ve been paying attention, you’d notice things haven’t been as dire in Tampa for him as they were in Seattle. The Rays seem to be taking this reclamation project over quite well as he currently owns a 50% groundball rate (highest of his albeit short career) and he even has a 31 point DK showing to his credit. At $5,600, you need about 18 points to get your ROI and if the Nats are still without Bryce Harper, I believe you can get that. Now after saying all that, if Harper is in, I’m probably out on this call but even Vegas is giving Erasmo the slight nod in a low scoring pick’em today with -110 and a 7 o/u so there’s some merit to this David Lynch’ian madness. But enough about surrealism, let’s get this going. Here are my other hot takes for today’s DK slate…

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?