Fantasy Baseball Advice

There’s only two types of years for AJ Burnett.  He’s either playing hard because it’s a contract year or he’s hardly playing because he contracted an injury.  Unless the Yanks are willing to give him a new contract every year to add to this one (which is definitely possible with the Yank$), our guess is that this will be a lot closer to a Pavano redux than a Mussina repeat.  For now, Burnett becomes the Yankees number two pitcher, though Wang might have a thang to say about that. Or maybe Joba will be considered the number two by the end of 2009.  So what say I about Burnett for 2009 fantasy baseball?

Burnett’s fairly unpredictable and now that he has a contract it’s almost guaranteed that he’s not going to be as productive in 2009 as he was 2008.  He’ll probably go in 2009 fantasy drafts sometime in the second fantasy pitching tier (think Dice-K, Haren, Shields), though he’s more likely to give you value of the third or fourth tier with all his injuries, i.e. Burnett’s overrated. But, and this is J. Lo-sized but, if he can make it through 2009 healthy, Burnett could give you 18 to 20 wins, a mid-3 ERA and 200+ Ks. In 2009 fantasy baseball drafts, this is the kind of guy I would grab if my pitching were already stacked. Let me explain, you’re in a keeper league and you already have Johan and Halladay. Here, you grab Burnett because if he flames out in 2009 — no big whoop, you’re already set with a solid one and two starter.  In all other cases where AJ’s drafted like he probably will be in 2009, I’d let someone else take a chance on The AJ Burnett Variety of Injuries Show.

It was just yesterday I wrote up my closer look for August and wouldn’t you know it, Wagner’s gone already. Sent to the DL. Official word puts Wagner with a forearm strain. Not a good sign at all. If the fluid in my knee is half full, I say at least he isn’t going to see Dr. Freeze. Yet. This was overheard at The Lemon Ice King of Corona (which is a stone’s throw from Shea and it’s delicious). “Heard Wagner’s down.” “Fawk ‘em, Jimmy. Fawk that fawkin’ fawk face fawker.” Supposedly Heilman’s next in line. It will be between him, “Not So Dirty” Sanchez, “Why Are You Happy” Feliciano, “Uter Tolberone’s Neighbor’s Name Is” Schoeneweis and their recently called up minor league closer, Eddie Kunz, whose nickname may end up “Just Don’t Suck As Much As The Next Guy.” If Wagner’s back by September, I’d be surprised. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Joba Chamberlain – Okay, like the Real World kids at the Improv Olympics, I’m going to, like, free associate. Harrison Ford was put on ice by Jabba the Hut. Then he went on to play Dr. Jones. Now Joba’s off to see Dr. Freeze. Scuba! And… scene!

Adam Jones – Fractured foot. Like Wyclef almost sang, he’ll be gone ’til September. Jones was hitting pretty well too, so this is a tough… wait for it… Here it comes… Eh, now it’s too built up. It’s not that good anyway. Forget it… Aw, I’m just playing. Tough… break! Oofa!

Jody Gerut – I know this is gonna make me sound like a stunod, but I just picked up Gerut in an NL-Only league. In his last seven, 2 HRs and over .300. And, no, you don’t want him in a ten team league. Only for deep-sea fishing.

Jose Vidro – Put out to pasture. If the Expos were still around, I’d put five dollars down that Vidro would be hired as the Expos Spanish Language Announcer for their radio games. Assuming the Expos had a radio deal and that the French-Canadians spoke Spanish.

Livan Hernandez – Rockies claimed him. All I ask is you look at the comments here. Not only am I psychic, but I can predict the future. (Speaking of these charlatans (Word of the Day), if they were psychic, wouldn’t they only go into work when there was going to be customers? Your empty red velour couch gives you away, faker!)

David Ortiz – He’s hearing a click in his wrist. Sell, Mortimer!

Jason Isringhausen – It was good to see Izzy come into a three run game. I mean, anyone should be able to get a save in that situat–Brain Freeze!

Eddie Guardado – Got the save after Wilson came into the game in the eighth and gave up four earned runs. Um… Wilson’s headed to the Disgraceful List. I mean, there’s nothing official, but he’s headed there. Cust kayin’.

Placido Polanco/Jason Kubel – 2 HRs apiece. There’s nothing else to say about either of these two schmohawks.

Fernando Rodney/Joel Zumaya - Leyland officially removes Rodney from the role of closer and inserts Zumaya. *wipes hand, lights cigarette, whistles* Then Rodney throws three innings of no-hit baseball while K’ing 5. Meanwhile, Zumaya gives up 4 runs, three unearned, to blow the save and take the loss. Bad week to quit sniffing glue.

Chris Carpenter – 5 IP, 2 Ks, 0 ER. Solid start, but Ks are low. He gets the Cubs next. That will be when we find out if his fantasy baseball owners have coconuts or marbles.

Shane Victorino – 11th homer yesterday. Rios still has 8.

Mike Hampton – 7 IP, 2 ER and his first win since God knows when. If you think this is a sign to pick him up, get your head examined.

Edinson Volquez – 5 IP, 5 ER. Take out the Liquid Paper cause we’re making corrections.

Alfonso Soriano – HR yesterday. I never have him on any team. Haven’t in a few years. I think I’m drafting Soriano next year. The more injury prone he is, the better. If you would’ve had… *pulls name from hat* Cody Ross while Soriano was down, your overall numbers would look pretty good right now.

Brandon Morrow – GM What’s His Face, “Okay, guys, we’ve made some seemingly intelligent decisions lately so that allows us the chance to slide a stupid move through. Any suggestions?” Yes Man, “Have the cable company charge extra money to watch Ichiro bat!” Yes Man 2, “Bring back Jose Guillen for Fan Appreciation Day.” Yes Man 3, “Curse at the elderly!” GM What’s His Face, “No, I need something just plain dopey.” In the back of the room, the Janitor pipes in, “Make the best reliever a starter.” “Well, it did work for the A’s…. And either way, we’ll still suck. Give that Janitor Sunday nights off!”

Dioner Navarro’s batting in the .370s. Crapoli’s got ten home runs. Olivo’s not missing Miguel Cabrera’s hugs as much I thought he would. JR Towles seems at least a year away. AJ Pierzynski’s doing well — for him. Benjie Molina’s doing well — for Victor Martinez. Victor Martinez is doing well for Nick Punto.  I’ve split my teams between Navarro, Crapoli, Olivo and McCann. So far the team that has struggled most offensively is McCann. “Well, ain’t that the weirderiest of things, Grey?” Not really. And weirderiest isn’t a word. I overspent on McCann costing the rest of my team. Moral of the story. Punt catcher aka trade away any catcher that can fetch you something. So your homework assignment is to trade away Victor Martinez. If someone believes he’s going to turn it around, then turn them around, bend them over and… Well, get a piece for your team that you need. Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball players to buy and sell:

BUY

Rickie Weeks -His current 40 runs, 7 HR, and 9 SB are comparable with Upton and Phillips. His 19 RBI are a casualty of hitting 1st on an NL team. While he hit .235 last year, he’s improved all his fundamentals, his K rate is down from 28% to 21%, but his BABIP is .229, really low for a guy his speed. He should be able to hit at least .260 the rest of the way. Assuming, of course, he stays healthy. His .201 average lets you buy low. (BTW, if those numbers above spun your head a little, just take our word for it. He’s due.)

Jeremy Guthrie – 12 starts, 10 are Quality Starts. “Well, jeez, Grey, that’s a fluke, right?” Last year, he had an ERA of 3.70 in 175 IP. Don’t make me try and guess your password and pickup Guthrie for you.

Prince Fielder – Sure, the only thing up this year is his BBs. (That’s Boca Burgers, not walks.) So what are you worried about? He’s not fat enough to hit home runs? As Richard Simmons might say, “He’s got saddlebags like I have handbags, girlfriend!”

Alex Gordon – I was really counting on him coming out the gate hitting to his ability. Well, that didn’t happen, so if you don’t have him, I’d go out and get him because he had a solid 2nd half last year.

James Shields – They took the “Devil” out of their name. You don’t have to be scared of them anymore.

Chone Figgins – I don’t like all speed guys personally, but I also ask for three plates because I don’t like my condiments mixing. You gonna do everything I do? I know Figgins’s DL’d for his legs. I also know his owners are considering dropping him and would take just about anything for him. If you have an open DL spot, there’s no reason why you shouldn’t make a run at him. Just know you may have to sit on him for three weeks to a month, but it’s a long season. That burst of speed in July may be exactly what you need.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – Another sophomore (the “o” is silent, like when you make love to your woman — oofa!) that is struggling more than I would’ve liked. But he came on (your woman while you were playing fantasy baseball– ouch!) last year, and can do it again.

Justin Huber – Psyche! Just making sure you’re paying attention.

Jorge Campillo – Left his last start with a finger boo-boo, so I was going to leave him off The List, but I’m mentioning him so you keep an eye on him for his next start.

Dan Wheeler – I’ll reenact a comment from late March, “The Nats say Cordero will be back next week, should I bother with Rauch?”

SELL

Joba Chamberlain – Expectations are unrealistically high. When everyone’s zigging, what do you do? Zag, man, zag. Don’t, obviously, trade him for Tony Pena Jr. and a walk-on part on Gossip Girl.

Jay Bruce – If you got him off waivers and your offense is already stacked, you could move him for a very valuable pitcher. Bruce probably won’t bat .500 for the rest of the year. Cust kayin’.

Conor Jackson – Mark Grace, who I think is the best color man currently working, watches Conor and says, “He looks a lot like me.” Gracie’s got a point.

James Loney – Gracie looks at Loney and he says, “Loney wishes he were me.”

Ryan Ludwick – The Queen’s Assassin aka Vincent can hit 25 home runs. He’s at 13. You do the math.

Carlos Gonzalez – I popped a zit into my bathroom mirror and it spelled out, “Good prospect, but little light on the seasoning. Has value in AL-only.”  What other fantasy baseball ‘pert oozes this kind of knowledge?

Adrian Gonzalez – He trends to be a 1st half player, but he doesn’t have enough trends that support me selling him for fifty pence on the pound. Get value, or hold onto him.

Ben Sheets – “Maybe I didn’t say this aloud to all of youse, but the guy can easily” search that phrase on Google and you’ll see why I’m saying to sell. BTW, in that post you find, I’m remarkably brilliant. Prescient to a tee. Mustachioed to a fault. Only the David Murphy and Justino German blurbs seem slightly off and let’s be real, neither of those things really hurt you much. *pats self on back*  Self replies, “Don’t touch me.”

Today, I noticed my diploma from the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston was a bit dusty and hanging crooked. So, I removed it from the wall, gave it a spit shine, polished the wood frame and fixed the wire so it would hang straight. Before I returned it to its rightful place next to my framed TV Guide cover of Miss Piggy and Kermit, I took a hard look at that diploma. I thought back on of all my classes with Matthew Berry, who insistently hit on all of the undergrads, male or female. I reminisced about hanging in the CFB quad with Rudy as we hacky-sacked and discussed a classmate’s trade of Alfonso Soriano for Dustin Hermanson. I remember being young and free and unable to get laid. Now many years later, and still unable to get laid, I miss those days. I miss the carefree attitude. The excitement I felt when a player would get hot and I would think he can hit .800 for the year. Or the frustration when a first round pick went 1-for-5. “Why can’t they go 4-for-5 every day,” I would yell at Prof. Berry. Alas, the highs and lows are gone. But, thankfully, in its place is patience. So now I know Robinson Cano refuses to hit in the first half of the season. This season is no different. Last year, post All-Star Break he went 53/13/57/.343. Pre-All-Star break, in almost 50 more at-bats, he went 40/6/40/.274 and three of those home runs came in July. In ‘06, more of the same shizz. This would make him a prime Buy Low guy. Hmm… Maybe those fourteen years weren’t wasted getting my CFB diploma. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday:

Troy Percival – As mentioned in the comments yesterday, Percy hurt himself and Wheeler came in to finish out the game. If Wheeler’s gone, go for Reyes if you have room.

Melky Cabrera – Of course he goes 2-for-4 on my bench. I love your name, Melky, I hate what you do to me.

Joba Chamberlain – He’s going to make his first major league start next Tuesday. This is subject to verification because I heard it from the Orioles announcers, who also manage to find positives about Mora, Millar and Ramon/Luis Hernandez, so they’re not that reliable. Though I will say they are a lot better than the YES announcers. Seriously, when I was a kid we had Rizzuto calling a black guy White and talking about huckleberries. This is not nostalgia talking. Scooter got into the Hall of Fame because of that nonsense (not officially, but still). Where have all of the good announcers gone? YES, I’m talking to you, Michael Kay.

Andy Pettitte – Rudy swears by this guy in deep leagues. I think Rudy’s caca-cuckoo. You make the call!

Adam Wainwright – You know what Wednesday means, right? Top Chef and The Real World: Hollywood! It also means a bunch of my pitchers went today, but I guess that’s more of a coincidence than anything. Wainwright does no wrong! It’s kind of a pun. Now groan!

Jeremy Guthrie – Another Grey pitcher!  I like him more than most and less than his Mom. Go figure!

Zach Greinke – Rudy gave me this schmohawk for Melky. Rudy has since dropped Melky. Wow, who’s winning this trade? Rudy’s been Greinke’d! (Yes, it’s a verb now.)

Jermaine Dye – Hit a home run yesterday. Last month, I picked him off waivers in my ‘pert league. I thought it was a bit crazy at the time that he was dropped, but since then Granderson’s been traded for Johan, and Rios was dropped by a team that held onto David DeJesus, so you just never know.

Chase Utley – You want regrets? I have a few. One is not having Utley in any league. I think I only could’ve had him in one league because of where I drafted. Alas… Nothing.

Jose Reyes – He’s at 7/16 and .279. Weren’t people saying he’s having a bad year? I love Reyes. (BTW, wouldn’t it be great if someone drafted Jose A. Reyes with their first pick? “What do you mean he’s only elgibile at catcher? He’s 0-for-his last two seasons? No, there’s got to be some kind of mistake. Wait, I’ll take a Molina!” “Which one?” “Um…. Alfred?”)

Cody Ross – 2 home runs. I wonder if his last name used to be Rosenweig.

Jo-Jo Reyes – Another guy I’m fond of, but I don’t have him any leagues. Yet.

Jason Giambi – Here’s my theory: they tested Giambi for ‘roids in April.

Joe Saunders – 5 ER in 5 IP. There’s a correction to ease your trigger finger about picking him up.

Jake Peavy – Had a promising sideline throwing session and might be back as early as this weekend. Figure he’ll be out at least 10 more days but, nonetheless, this is best case news for Peavy owners. This might be the last time you can get Peavy at a discount.

Pitching – We’d rave more about Bedard, Halladay, Harden, and Zambrano if it weren’t for the fact that Lowe, Wakefield, and Suppan also pitched well. You know it’s an odd day when San Francisco scores more than both teams combined in the majority of games.

Travis Hafner – He’s shown nothing so far and is playing with a bum shoulder (2 cortisone shots and counting). Evidently sore shoulders are harder to play with than high-grade tears of the elbow. When you start your career as a 27-year old DH, the clock’s ticking and it’s already a quarter to 12. Like a comet with a really big head, Pronk appeared out of nowhere, shone brightly, and seems to be disappearing just as fast.

Rafael Soriano – Picture John Smoltz is Nic Cage. Now picture Soriano is a bird. Okay, now picture Manny Acosta is a brown jacket. Finally, Will Ohman is a grey shirt. Okay, here’s the Braves closing picture.

J.R. Towles – 109 AB hitting .147. No SB. Makes you long for the salad days of Brad Ausmus.

Bowden Fluffer (noun) – A young, nubile outfielder that gets one all excited about their 5 tools but never fulfills the promise. See Justin Upton (May=.203, 1 HR, 34 Ks), Adam Jones, Cameron Maybin, Felix Pie, et. al.

The Giants report John Bowker will steal time away Randy Winn. Might take a bulk of the at-bats at first away from Aurilla. This is terrific news for Bowker and the Giants. But for you the fantasy baseball player, I say, “Eh.” Bowker’s minor league stats show a guy who struck out a lot, didn’t walk too much and is being slightly rushed. Could he be a surprise feel-good story for the Giants and fantasy owners? Maybe, but very doubtful. In his last full season of minor league ball (at AA), he went 79/.307/22/90 with 103 strikeouts and 44 walks in 522 at-bats. Decent enough numbers, but this season he should be in Triple A showing that his Double A numbers aren’t a fluke. If I have an empty bench slot, I’d grab a middle reliever before I went anywhere near John Bowker. If you’re in dire need of an outfielder, go Bowkers! But Bowker might be back in the minors in a month.

Andruw Jones – He was batting eighth. If you have him, unfurl your contingency plans — stat.

Corey Patterson – He went into a slide, now he’s not even playing against righties. Not good, friend. Not good at all.

Xavier Nady – Now batting .347 with 17 RBIs. I told you three weeks ago, you never know where hot streaks are going to come from or for how long they’re going to last. Cust kayin’.

Matt Murton – He was called up and benched. Hope he enjoyed sex with Piniella’s wife or whatever it was that put him in the perennial doghouse.

Matt Diaz – He’s sitting against righties again. This could continue indefinitely. It’s much worse than Kelly Johnson sitting against lefties because of the sheer number of righty pitchers.

John Maine – Looked good. Think he can get much better.

Tim Hudson – Don’t take this wrong way, I like him, but he didn’t look that good yesterday. Lots of balls hit hard.

Calos Villanueva – Other than some early inning wildness, he looked decent. Would’ve liked to have seen more Ks, but still a good start.

Mark Reynolds – Why anyone is throwing him fastballs is behind me, but he went deep again. Fingercuffing sucks.

Armando Galarraga – All he does is win! I wouldn’t pick him up. If you can not look good pitching 5 1/3 innings of scoreless baseball, he did it.

Eugenio Velez – On every other team, he’d be in the minors or a pinch runner.

Joba Chamberlain – Hank Steinbrenner said only “an idiot” would keep Joba as a setup man. Cashman and Girardi said they’re idiots then. Good to see no matter what Stein is behind the wheel, same nonsense.

Adam Wainwright – If I were the type to boost my preseason predictions after three weeks, I would boost his.

Michael Bourn – He already has 13 steals. Could he get 70 steals? Yup. In December of ‘07, I said to draft Bourn not only because of the steals, but “…Baseball America pointed out (Bourn) as having the “Best Strike Zone Discipline.” Okay, not exactly Best Newcomer at the AVN Awards, but strike zone discipline is not a bad thing to have for a leadoff man. I’m talking to you, Granderson.” And that’s me quoting me.