Fantasy Baseball Advice

We’ve gone over the top 20 catchers, top 20 1st basemen, top 20 2nd basemen and top 20 3rd basemen for 2008. Now we finish up the infield with the top 20 Shortstops for 2008. Something I noticed as I went over the top 20 shortstops, it’s extremely shallow. Let’s look at number 7, Michael Young. Is Young the weakest #7 on any list? Well, the #7 catcher is Pierzynski. That’s close, but I’ll give the edge to Young. The #7 1st baseman is Ryan Howard. Um, okay. The #7 2nd baseman is Jose Lopez. Lopez was better. The #7 3rd baseman was Miguel Cabrera. You want Miggy. The #7 Outfielder will be Ichiro. You’d want Ichiro. So is it fair to say the  shortstop position is the shallowest after catchers? Yeah, that’s what I’m saying. Dur. One thing that makes all of this arguable is you need more outfielders than shortstops. Anyway, here’s the top 20 Shortstops for 2008 in fantasy baseball and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

1. Jose Reyes - I ranked Reyes number two overall in my preseason top ten because I love Reyes.  (He ended up number two overall, as well) He stole a few less bases this year, but he made up with it by hitting a few more home runs. His runs were off, but, as previously discussed in other top 20 lists, offense was down all over. Preseason Rank #1, Preseason Predictions:  130/14/70/.295/70, Final Numbers: 113/16/68/.297/56

2. Hanley Ramirez - Okay, here’s someone I really tried to temper expectations in the preseason by ranking him down at number six for overall top ten and ranking him number two on the shortstop list. These ranks are actually pretty close. The larger problem, I thought his power would come down and his steals would go up. But, in all fairness, my stat prediction was off.  His power was fine, but steals were down. Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions:  110/17/85/.295/45, Final Numbers: 125/33/67/.301/35

3. Jimmy Rollins - I tried to move people away from drafting Rollins last year because he was coming off an over-hyped MVP season. This turned out to be the right move. I thought his power was a fluke, but not this dramatically. Preseason Rank #3, Preseason Predictions:  130/22/70/35/.290, Final Numbers:  76/11/59/47/.277

4. Derek Jeter - Lots of you drafted him because you wanted your girlfriends or wives to have a rooting interest for your fantasy baseball team. Mrs. Razzball reader, “Okay, we can have sex, but I want to call you Jeter.” Mr. Razzball reader, “Deal!” Preseason Rank #5, Preseason Predictions:  110/15/70/.315/15, Final Numbers:  88/11/69/.300/11

5. Jhonny Peralta - Here’s a guy I pushed in the preseason. (Not literally. That’s assault.) His power was down in the 2nd half of the season for the 2nd season in a row. This is something to watch. Preseason Rank #10, Preseason Predictions:  85/32/105/.270/3, Final Numbers:  104/23/89/.276/3

6. Alexei Ramirez - Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 65/21/77/.290/13

7. Michael Young - He played through a fractured finger to try and get to 200 hits, but still fell short. I’m convinced he would’ve played through the eye of a tropical cyclones for his 200th hit. Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  95/12/95/.310/10, Final Numbers:  102/12/82/.284/10

8. Stephen Drew - Finally starting to come out of that long-injured shadow of his big bro. Yo, big bro, could you hand me the remote? Oh, shoot! Mom, J.D. just pulled his hammy! Preseason Rank #17, Preseason Predictions:  65/20/75/.270/15, Final Numbers:  91/21/67/.291/3

9. Ryan Theriot - Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Rank #14, Preseason Predictions:  105/3/50/.290/45, Final Numbers:  85/1/38/.307/22

10. Orlando Cabrera - Luckily Renteria is ten spots away. I wouldn’t want a fight breaking out in the top twenty list. Preseason Rank #15, Preseason Predictions:  100/9/65/.280/20, Final Numbers:  93/8/57/.281/19

11. Cristian Guzman - The only preseason ‘pert prediction (<–alliteration, boyz!) Guzman even sniffed was, “Guzman will suck.” And that’s me quoting some made up prediction! Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 77/9/55/.316/6

12. J.J. Hardy - All the right metrics were moving in the right direction this year for Hardy. A very promising sign moving forward. Oh, wait, right now we’re looking back. Um… Hardy was almost exactly the player I thought he was going to be. Preseason Rank #13, Preseason Predictions:  85/20/80/.260, Final Numbers:  78/24/74/.283/2

13. Mike Aviles - Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  68/10/51/.325/8

14. Miguel Tejada - In the preseason, I hoped Tejada’s machismo from being called out for ‘roids would kick in and lead him to a great season. Turned out the lack of ‘roids manscaped his machismo. Preseason Rank #6, Preseason Predictions:  90/25/100/.290/3, Final Numbers:  92/13/66/.283/7

15. Carlos Guillen - I disliked this schmohawk coming into the season and he even underperformed my expectations. Yo, Guillen, go get your shinebox! Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions:  95/15/75/.300/8, Final Numbers:  68/10/54/.286/9

16. Jerry Hairston Jr. - The fact he made the list says more about the state of the shortstop position than I could write so blah blah blah… Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  47/6/36/.326/15

17. Clint Barmes - Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  47/11/44/.290/13

18. Yunel Escobar - Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Rank #18, Preseason Predictions:  80/10/55/.285/15, Final Numbers:  71/10/60/.288/2

19. Jason Bartlett - Jason Bartlett was ranked 19th and he came in 19th. For all of you in nineteen team leagues that didn’t listen to me. I told you so! Preseason Rank #19, Preseason Predictions:  70/5/45/.270/25, Final Numbers: 48/1/37/.286/20

20. Edgar Renteria - Because Renteria came in last at number 20, there’s a group of Colombian bandits Renteria hired that are GPS-tracking me. My only chance for survival is the group of Colombian bandits Orlando Cabrera hired to protect me. This is worst than the 80s Cola Wars. Preseason Rank #11, Preseason Predictions:  95/10/75/.295/15, Final Numbers: 69/10/55/.270/6

Late Sunday night, C.C. Sabathia was traded to the Brewers for the power-hitting prospect, Matt LaPorta. Since a 7.76 ERA in April, Sabathia has put up a 2.44 and a 1.90 in May and June respectively. In May and June, he had a 85/15 K/BB ratio. In interleague, 4 ER is 23 IP. However you look at the numbers, Fatty Fat Fat can pitch. In NL-only leagues, you drop your whole wad to acquire him. If your wad isn’t big enough, you trade to acquire Sabathia, if you need pitching. There’s no reason to think he’ll be anything less than dominant moving into the NL, unless Prince talks Sabathia into his new diet plan. Fielder, “Do you know the amount of trans fat in McDonald’s hamburgers?” Sabathia, “Nuh-uh. But I hope it’s a lot!” Now the Brewers just need to hire a bench coach to make sure Prince and Sabathia are never sitting on the same side of the bench. Oh, wait, I know who can do it — Seth McClung. He likely loses his rotation spot, but if that hurts your fantasy team, you got bigger problems. As for Matt LaPorta, he’s a power-hitting outfielder who should get the call up to the majors sooner rather than later. He was pegged as a three-outcome guy, see Dunn, Adam. It looks like he cut his Ks this year so maybe he’ll only be a two-outcome guy. Mmm…. walks and homers. That sounds delicious. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

J.J. Hardy - Hit two more home runs yesterday. Four weeks a year, J.J. Hardy reminds me of a young Miguel Tejada. Twenty weeks of the year, he reminds me of a muy stale Tecate. Imagine you’re a teacher and four weeks a year you teach the students well, knowing they are the future and blah-diddy, blah blah, then for the rest of the school year you just phone it in… Actually, now that I think about it, most of my teachers didn’t even make an effort four weeks a year. Well, there goes that argument. I suppose in many ways it’s better that Hardy gets all of his prodcution out of the way, now you can trade him in three weeks and get someone who will continue to produce.

Scott Linebrink - Got the save yesterday. As Hater Bell pointed out on Saturday, Bobby Jenks is hurting a bit right now and is no guarantee to be fine. He may be out until the All-Star Break. If you consider yourself a save vulture, this is old news. Go take a nap!

Cody Ross - Knocked in something like 55 runs in the four game series in Coors. Meanwhile, back on earth, the Marlins are looking to trade for a center fielder. That’s right; Cody Ross’s 15 home runs are so quiet his team doesn’t even know about them.

Juan Rivera - Mentioned him last week as a guy that could get hot and hit 15 to 20 home runs. He currently has 2 home runs; yesterday he hit his second of the week. (BTW, because I type with two fingers, yesterday is a super easy word to type. My WPM would probably be close to 60 if someone asked me to transcribe “Yesterday.” Since it seems like a pointless exercise and I don’t like The Beatles, I wouldn’t do it unless the money was right, which brings me to my reality show idea, Insipid Proposal. It’s Indecent Proposal for the easily entertained. You offer someone a penny to walk around the block. If they refuse, you raise the amount of money until they accept. I didn’t think they’d walk around the block for less than a dollar, but, wow, sixty-five cents! This show isn’t about skill, it’s about inanity. Now someone needs to make this happen.)

Oliver Perez - Perez and Kyle Kendrick in a pitcher’s duel? That’s why they play the games.

Nick Markakis - He is Sparkakis! 13th HR of the year and Markakis is a 2nd half player. Well, guess what? It’s the 2nd half.

Edinson Volquez - Got the win yesterday with 6 IP, 3 ER and only 3 Ks against the Nats. This shouldn’t be viewed as a good start. I’d still be selling.

Evan Longoria - 16th HR, he’s looking 2/3 Braun and only 1/3 Gordon or Ryan Braundon.

Chris Volstad - The Marlins pitching prospect was called up the other day and threw two innings of middle relief yesterday. Volstad will get the start on the 11th against the Dodgers. In a keeper league and an NL-only league, Volstad probably is gone by now. If I had room in a deep mixed league or if Yahoo adds him before the 11th (<—doubtful!), I’d take a flier, but keep expectations in check. Personally, he strikes me as Derek Lowe — third starter stuff.

Aaron Cook - I benched him in the one league I have him because the Broncos-Fins games the previous three days were out of control on offense. Cook ended up throwing 7 1/3 IP and 7 ER, but it would’ve been five if not for Cody Ross’s home run in the 8th. Everywhere you look, there Cody is.

Nate Robertson - 9 IP, 1 ER, one God-awful Mariners lineup.

Jon Garland - Garland a Tinseltown success! 9 IP, 1 ER, 3 Ks in under 100 pitches. I actually yawned when I wrote that. Then again, it’s after 10pm on Sunday and I’m not really a night person. Not so much a morning person either. I’m an afternoon person. After 2pm and before 5pm, I’m pure razzle-dazzle.

Michael Bourn - Had an 0-for-7 yesterday with 3 Ks. I’m surprised how little the mainstream media is covering this, but Bourn’s actually putting together a tremendous Razzball season. 38/4/15/.218/76 Ks. He’s no Tony Pena Jr., but it’s nothing to sneeze at. (Not to mention, if you were to sneeze at him, from the way his season is going he’d probably get pneumonia from your sneeze germs.)

There’s probably more relevant fantasy baseball stories that could’ve been the lead for today’s post, but guess what? I love me some suffering of others. Honestly, I would’ve named the site schadenfreude-ball.com, but I thought that would cause this blog to be a hotbed of lederhosen pictures and Wiener schnitzel recipes. (Personally, I have no problem with either, but when Google indexes you, it’s important you are in no way connected to lederhosen or Wiener schnitzel. I believe it goes back to the Potsdam Conference. BTW, for those history buffs out there, I got a kick out of this in Wikipedia, “In March 1945, Finland declares war on Germany.” In case anyone doesn’t follow, Hitler killed himself in April 1945. Way to step up, Finland. They’re like the defensive replacement that comes into the ninth inning of game seven of a championship game. They get to celebrate, but you know they didn’t do anything. Finland is Doug Mientkiewicz. But I digress.) So, with The Love Guru bombing and Brett sent down, July 2008 was a bad month to be a Myers. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Matt Cain - Okay, full disclosure. I have Matt Cain on one of my teams and he’s been sitting on the bench for a majority of the season, but I’m holding him because I think he can be better. Yesterday, he was better. 8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 10 Ks.

Chipper Jones - Avoided the DL. Yesterday I said, it looked like Chipper was headed to the DL. I didn’t Celebracadabra this shizz out of thin air. Manager Bobby Cox said he was shocked Jones didn’t hit the DL. Honestly, if you’re in Reno and there’s even odds for Chipper going on the DL, you double down. And don’t forget to tip your waitresses.

Troy Percival - Back to the DL and it wasn’t Wheeler last night for the save… It was Balfour! True, what? I am a True Fushnick! It’s fantasy baseball that I kick. But it was Balfour because Wheeler had gone three days in a row. Wheeler will get the majority of the saves going forward. You want a limb? How’s this — Wheeler gets more saves than Percival in the 2nd half.

Jeff Kent - HR last night. Why can’t he get more home runs in the 2nd half than he got in the first? Cause he’s 40. Well, yeah, but I think he’s too stubborn to totally suck. He has nine home runs right now. I think he gets 12 more. Wow, 12 more! Can I drop Ryan Howard now?! Well, ain’t you smart. Kinsler/Phillips both only had 13 in the 1st half. So 12’s something.

John Danks - 8 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks, he reminds me of a manadrin orange. It looks all weird and shizz, but when you taste it, it tastes fine. That’s Danks. You look at him and his name looks all weird and you don’t trust him then you start him and he’s fine.

Aaron Cook - Double A *beep beep* C-O-O-K. Okay, more disclosure, I’ve had him on a team for two months now. That’s two months longer than I ever thought I’d have Aaron Cook on a team. Whatevs. For a fourth starter on a fantasy team, you can do a lot worse. *cough* Pedro *cough*

Alex Gordon - Guess who’s turning it on? Seriously, guess. Why wouldn’t you guess Alex Gordon?! This question was right next to his name. What, you don’t want to succeed? Success scares you? Gordon, 3 HRs in last week.

Matt Garza - 7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 3 Ks. No walks, which is a great sign. I told someone not to start him yesterday against the Sox. I also read the Michael J. Fox autobiography, Lucky Man: A Memoir. Twice. Sometimes you need to zig when I’m zagging.

Mariano Rivera - Kazaam!

J.J. Hardy - 2 HRs and over .450 in the last 7 games. He hit 15 home runs in two months last year. He can get hot. Recognize!

David Wright - 16th HR yesterday. 3 HRs in the last 7 games. He’s soooooo perfect. Like OJ Simpson in the 70s.

Todd Wellemeyer - My fifth starter has a second name it’s something-something-M-E-Y-E-R and has now given up 14 runs in 13.1 innings.

Cliff Lee - 8 IP, 1 ER. Still no sign of aging on Dorian Gray’s face.

Miguel Cabrera - Pinch hit, which is a good sign if people were worried about him heading to the DL.

Rafael Furcal - Officially pulling a Kotchman. After his first minor league game, his back hurt. Something tells me we may not see Furcal again for a while and he may not do anyone any good when he does return.

Jorge Cantu - Hasn’t a hit a HR since June 12th. I get no pleasure in seeing him struggle because I have him on two teams. Damn! I should’ve went with lederhosen pictures and Wiener schnitzel recipes.

Adam Lind - Way back in April, I grabbed Lind. Turned out bad like the last two seasons of 24, so I dropped him. Now he’s back and hitting. I just dropped Melky for him in one league. I love Melky’s name; I hate what Melky does to my team.

Joe Borowski - After the game, Eric Wedge said, “I thought he pitched well, they just got lucky.” After the interview, the Indians put Wedge’s name in the hat for Emmy consideration.

Jay Bruce could be called up from the minors relatively soon. So I figured I should give you a breakdown, but then Baron Von Vulturewins, a regular commenter in the Razzpound and an all-around good guy (actually, he could be writing in from jail, I have no idea), did a great breakdown of Jay Bruce in the comments. So without further ado — the Baron on Jay Bruce (I edited some for breadth), “Pros: Jay Bruce is the consensus top prospect in baseball. He’s most often compared to Larry Walker — i.e. big power potential with speed and high avg., i.e. tasty. He’s currently at .366 AVG, 8 HR, 33 RBIs, 7 SB, .662 SLG in Triple-A. (And he started slow, so he’s been on an absolute tear of late.) Baseball Prospectus’ notoriously gloomy PECOTA projections put him at 29 HR this year (assuming a full season in the bigs, I’m guessing.) …All the indicators are there for Jay Bruce to succeed: bad team with several trade-bait veteran OFs, a local media clamoring to get this kid to the show — he’ll be playing in one of the NL’s premiere bandboxes, i.e. Cincy.

Cons: Two years ago, Alex Gordon was the CTPiB (consensus top etc.) and, well, we’ve seen that he hasn’t turned into “Boog Powell minus eighty pounds of custard” quite yet. (Some of us have watched this more closely, and more painfully, than others.) Cincy has a long, inglorious history of carrying one too many OFs, and driving fantasy owners insane with idiotic non-platoon OF switcheroos (see: Freel, Ryan). This is all compounded by the fact that Dusty Baker also has a history of mishandling/not trusting young players, though he seems to have put his faith in Joey Votto this year, which augurs (Word of the Day) well for Bruce.

Bottom line: Bruce could well go the way of Gordon ‘07, or he could just as easily go the way of Braun ‘07. Having missed out on the latter last year through pure Yahoo!-induced phenom fatigue (they hype everyone like they’re a young Babe Ruth, so by mid-May, you’re tuning it out) I don’t plan to miss out on it this year. So my money’s on Bruce. Given what you have to invest — i.e. nothing, save a bench spot for a few weeks.” Well said, Baron. I agree, if you have a bench spot, go for Bruce. I had Ian Stewart for a week on my bench and it didn’t cost me anything. Stewart didn’t get the call, so I dropped him. No harm, no foul. Rudy dropped Betancourt to pick up Bruce in our ten team friends’ league. If you have the spot, it makes sense to take a flier as they say in the biz (which biz that is, I’m not sure). Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Ryan Braun - Now he’s just trying to make me look foolish.

Mike Napoli - The Italian-American put a hit out… of the park. Twice. If you have Pudge on your team, you’re just not trying hard enough. Or you’re Pudge’s cousin, and you promised your aunty.

Jake Peavy - Hopefully he misses just one start. But in reality, you kinda want him to miss as many starts as it’s going to take so he returns in good health. Unless he misses half a season, then you want to bang your head against the wall. Repeatedly. Until you draw blood.

Adam Dunn - The prevailing thought is he’s going to hit .240 and 40 home runs. I think he can get his average up to .270 and hit 40. He currently sits on .221 and 10 home runs. And .221 and 10 home runs asks Dunn to please stop sitting on them, so we’ll see.

Cliff Lee - For those holding onto him, I hope this was a blip. For others, who heeded my advice to trade him, this might be the beginning of the correction. Muahahaha…

Edinson Volquez - Strong outing, but he was wild. His history shows he can be very wild. He could hit a month or two spell where he’s unusable. Cust kayin’.

David Ortiz - There’s no reason to think you have to sell him now that he went deep. He’s going to do what he do.

Carlos Villanueva - You can’t start Chuck NewVillage at this point. Even in deep leagues.

Jeff Clement - Mariners decide the future is Jose Vidro. Mariners fans should decide to shit Bavasi’s house like Ronald Miller did in Can’t Buy Me Love.

Jeremy Guthrie - Was one of the pitchers I suggested you grabbed when Smoltz, Hill and Gallardo decided to wipe their asses on your fantasy team. He pitched well against a poor team. Would’ve been nice to see him strikeout a few more Nats. Actually, wouldn’t been nice to see him strikeout one Nat, but Wily Mo didn’t play, so there was that.

Kevin Slowey - Didn’t look as bad as his final line, but he has to cut back on home runs.

Edwin Jackson - At this point, he needs to be owned in every league.

Chris Perez - Not sure if he’s going to take over as the closer, but he should be owned if you’re utilizing middle men and potential closers.

Jo-Jo Reyes - Another pitcher I pegged as a fill-in for the Smoltz/Hill/Gallardo crapfecta. He looked extremely well and he has upside, but he said he’s pitching with a blister. That makes him iffy going forward.

Manny Acosta - Looks like Bobby Cox doesn’t have Acosta on his fantasy team. He brought Ohman, the lefty specialist, to start the ninth, which nullified the save chance for Acosta.

Justin Duchscherer - Looked usable, but he doesn’t seem like he can go deep enough in games for many wins.

Adrian Gonzalez - Seriously, the Padres would’ve lost some close games in the dead ball era. Gonzo is like the Padres “Home Run” Baker. (That’s the old-timey player who led the league with 12 home runs. Imagine playing fantasy baseball back in the 1910s. There would’ve been a ten way tie for home runs with one. Someone would’ve got three runs and two RBIs in a week and would’ve walked to victory in H2H. The top pitcher taken would’ve been Babe Ruth and when you heard he wasn’t going to pitch anymore, he would’ve been a steal in the late rounds. 1500 max innings pitched would’ve been reach by June. And you would have named your fantasy teams like My Team’s Fat Like Taft, Cy Young Is The Best Pitcher And Needs An Award, and A Hit Like Franz Ferdinand (and you wouldn’t have been talking about the band).

Ichiro Suzuki - Up to 20 steals. Wow, never a huge fan of Ichiro, but 20 steals already. Last year, he had 23 steals before the All-Star break. I think you should start exploring trade options if someone thinks he’s going to get to 60 steals. I mean, he might, but you already have a third of his steals if he does, so you’ve had your fill. Now stop being greedy.

J.J. Hardy - Hit his second home run of the season. Looks like he’s coming out of his season long slump.

That title make you tongue-tied? Well that’s nothing compared to how tongue-tied most fantasy players get about middle infielders. No positions have fewer bargains in the draft. This post is to make sure you don’t pay scalper rates.

Below is a comparison of middle infielder value comparing Average Draft Position (ADP) on MockDraftCentral.com vs our Point Share rank (+ means # of picks above estimated value, - means picked lower).

(For the full Point Shares rank and explanation, see here. This is based on PECOTA and Shandler projections.)

I’ve created three buckets - Fair Value, Undervalued, and Overvalued - with the cutoff on each side at 15 spots in the ranking (a player is ‘overvalued’ only if his ADP is 15 picks earlier that his Point Shares estimate is his value).

(MockDraftCentral ADP, Point Share Rank, +/-)

Fair Value (within +/- 15 in rank)
Hanley Ramirez (2, 7, +5)
Jose Reyes (4, 14, +10)
Jimmy Rollins (6, 12, +6)
Chase Utley (8, 9, +1)
Brian Roberts (33, 46, +13)
Carlos Guillen (49, 58, +9)
Robinson Cano (64, 74, +10)
Dan Uggla (103, 116, +13)
Placido Polanco (169, 178, +9)
Orlando Hudson (182, 168, -14)

Undervalued
Kelly Johnson (165, 129, -36)
Dustin Pedroia (176, 130, -46)
Khalil Greene (191, 166, -25)
Aaron Hill (192, 153, -39)
Ty Wigginton (214, 151, -63)
Felipe Lopez (219, 174, -45)
Freddy Sanchez (236, 140, -96)
Mark Ellis (264, 189, -75)
Luis Castillo (280, 227, -53)
Asdrubal Cabrera (303,194, -109)

Overvalued
Brandon Phillips (19, 42, +23)
BJ Upton (22, 80, +58)
Derek Jeter (35, 103, +68)
Troy Tulowitzki (45, 68 +23)
Chone Figgins (53, 83 +30)
Ian Kinsler (68, 107, +39)
Miguel Tejada (71, 117 +46)
Rafael Furcal (76, 108, +32)
Michael Young (80, 115, +35)
Edgar Renteria (99, 241, +142)
Rickie Weeks (106, 149, +43)
Howie Kendrick (118, 188, +70)
Orlando Cabrera (123, 211, +88)
JJ Hardy (128, 217, +89)
Jeff Kent (137, 193, +56)
Jhonny Peralta (173, 201, +28)
Kaz Matsui (193, 325, +132)
Stephen Drew (213, 235, +22)

After the first top four middle infielders, all but 4 of the next 14 are overvalued. I think this is because middle infielders are drafted based on upside more than any other position. Or, in other words, they are drafted at picks where they would provide fair value only if they hit their best case on stats vs. their likely case.

Drafting on 30/30, More Likely 20/20: Brandon Phillips, BJ Upton
Drafting to Improve vs. Last Year, More Likely to Repeat at Best: Troy Tulowitzki, Ian Kinsler
Drafting For Big Bounceback, More Likely to Repeat/Slightly Improve: Miguel Tejada, Rafael Furcal
Drafting On Hope, More Likely To Underperform vs. Expectation: Rickie Weeks, Howie Kendrick
Drafting on Yesteryear, More Likely to Produce a Lesser Tomorrow: Derek Jeter, Edgar Renteria, Orlando Cabrera, Jeff Kent

Now I’m not going to invest time in the majority of these cases as at least there is a chance they might produce fair value. Here are three that I think will definitely not produce fair value based on their current ADP:

Derek Jeter – I’m a Yankee fan. Great player both on the field and in the NYC bars. But he’s hit 20+ HR once in the last 5 years. He’s stolen 25+ SB once in the 5 years. He’s hit 80+ RBI once in the last 5 years. Yes, he delivers runs and AVG but the former stat declined from 122 to 102 over the past 3 years and batting average is a slave to regression (good article on it here). Here are the projections I have for him this year: 93/10/66/13/.303. I think he has upside in all those categories but drafting him at #35 means you’ve got him at something much closer to 2005’s 122/19/70/34/.343. Chances he’ll hit that – I’ll say 5%. If you really want a Yankee MI, wait until the 6th or 7th round and take Cano – much better value.

Edgar Renteria – Renteria is an AWFUL middle round pick. He’s ‘Latin’ 32 this year (more likely 34), returning to the league that overmatched him in 2005, and is a prime candidate to see 40 points fall off his batting average (that .332 was a fluke due to a high increase in BABIP). Has hit 15+ HR only once in his career (2000) and hasn’t stolen more than 17 bases since 2003. Prediction: Fails to hit 12 HR or steal 12 SB. Will be on the waiver wire in many 5×5 10 team leagues by mid-season. I’d rather have DP mate Polanco and he’s going 7 rounds later.

Orlando Cabrera – Vlad’s little buddy won’t be seeing as many fastballs and runs now that he doesn’t have the Impaler behind him. Wow that sounded gay. But what’s more distasteful is taking this guy anytime before, say, the 18th round. What’s to like? He hasn’t hit more than 10 HR since 2003. Has stolen 20+ SB the last three years but he’s 33 this year – can’t count on much more than 15 SB. His .301 last year was a fluke – his average the previous two years was .257 and .282. I suppose he’s picked higher based on familiarity but, in this case, familiarity should breed contempt. Another guy likely to find the waiver wire at some point this season in mixed leagues.

So here is my simple MI drafting strategy for you…don’t reach! There are a few guys in the first 7 rounds that you can get at close to fair value. After that, just draft other positions until the 13th round or so and start picking up some of the Undervalued guys (or if an Overvalued guy tumbles). There is enough depth out there that you could pick up guys in the 20th round (Sanchez, Ellis, Wigginton) who’ll likely outperform several of the MIs taken in the middle rounds.