Fantasy Baseball Advice

Reports say Mark Kotsay is headed to the Sawx. If he lands there, he’ll start over Coco Crisp and will have some slight fantasy value. Think AL-Only leagues. More importantly, this would free up the Braves outfield for Brandon Jones to start then Jordan Schafer, the (HGH-aided) five-tooler, to get the call come September 1st.  Jordan Schafer is the most interesting name here, which isn’t that hard when you’re surrounded by schmohawks. Schafer was the top 13-year-old in the country according to Baseball America and Teen Beat. He could be patrolling centerfield for the Braves on a regular basis as soon as ‘09 and, if so, he will be an early Rookie of the Year candidate, so those in keeper leagues should make sure he’s on their team. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brian Fuentes - On bereavement leave, will be gone for up to 7 days. If you’re desperate for saves, grab Corpas and pray Fuentes’s bereaved gets better, but hope it’s touch and go for a week. Also, the Rockies are still trying to move Fuentes, so it’s not a bad idea to grab Corpas anyway.

Jimmy Rollins - 3 steals, HR and 8-for-10 in the last two games. About time.

Brandon Morrow - Set to make season debut as a starter on September 5th vs. the Yankees. In almost 13 innings in Tacoma, he’s struckout 18 and carries a decent WHIP, but he’s given up 7 runs. I’m going to let him stretch himself out on someone else’s team.

Jorge De La Rosa - 6 IP, 2 ER. In a few deeper leagues, I spotted him in for this start and I will for his next start when he gets the Giants again.

Vladimir Guerrero - Was announced he’d be sitting out some games to recharge. Presumably for the Angels playoff games, or maybe Vlad’s signed on to Dancing With The Stars. Fingers crossed!

Dioner Navarro - Left the game with leg cramps. Aw, must be that time of the month.

Wandy Rodriguez - Almost two weeks ago, I told you to pickup Wandy with absolutely no reason given. You want a reason? Yesterday’s line, 7 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 10 Ks. That’s magic, Wandy!

Zach Greinke - 6 IP, 5 Ks, 0 ER. I dropped him about month or so ago so I guess I was Greinke’d by this start. Then again, prior to last night’s start he had over a 5.00 ERA since the All-Star break. Then Again, Part 2:  He has been solid for the last three starts. Then Again, The Reckoning:  His innings are high for the year and the Royals provide little opportunity for wins. Let’s just say, I’m not picking him back up.

Carlos Zambrano - 4.1 IP, 6 ER to outfunk Ian Snell.

Luis Ayala - Blown save yesterday. Wasn’t fully his fault and he could bounce back to get the next five saves or Manuel might look elsewhere. The Mets bullpen aka “As The Turd Turns…”

Jair Jurrjens - 3 IP, 6 ER. Mesa tinks yousa drop me. I agree, Jar-Jar.

Cody Ross - 3-for-5 with a HR. When this sumbitch gets hot, he gets real hot. You’ve been served (with info)!

Bronson Arroyo - CG, 5 hits, 1 ER. If you had him in your lineup, you got balls. If you think you should hold him, you’re nuts.

Geovany Soto - 3-for-5, HR and 7 RBIs. Making a case for the first catcher off the board next year. I won’t be taking him, but someone will.

Cliff Lee - 19th win as he heads towards the Cy Young. Will be real interesting to see where he’s drafted next year. Again, won’t be by me. The Indians fan, who just woke up from a season long slumber, is met by a 30/30 Sizemore and the eventual Cy Young, Cliff Lee. So we’re winning the division? Wild Card? You’ve been Pronk’d!

Ben Francisco - 2 HRs yesterday. Instant replay showed he actually grabbed the pitches and threw both balls over the fence.

The Rangers traded Eddie Guardado to the Twins for Mark Hamburger. If Hamburger doesn’t ring a dinner bell, that means you’re not related to him. With the trade of Eddie Guardado, Frank Francisco, whose claim to fame until yesterday was tossing a chair at a lady in the stands, will get the nod to take over as the Rangers closer. Actually, the chair toss might still be his claim to fame. After being instilled as the Rangers closer almost a month ago, Guardado only got 2 saves, so expectations for Francisco, the closer, should be kept in check. I suppose expectations for Francisco, the hot head, are endless. If you’re in a tight saves race, you take the flier on Francisco. Just because Guardado didn’t succeed doesn’t mean Francisco can’t. Remember Guardado was traded for a Hamburger. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

John Maine - Not sure if you dropped him yet, but you should. He’s done helping you this season. (Yes, you could backdate that to June.)

Luis Castillo - If you’re desperate for a MI, I still wouldn’t look at Castillo.

Mike Pelfrey - First time in 13 years a Mets pitcher has pitched back-to-back complete game victories. Of course this comes a week and a half after the Mets say they were going to limit Pelfrey’s innings. That’s what losing Maine and Wagner will do to you. Was kinda surprised Pelfrey didn’t strikeout 20 and throw a perfect game. He can do nothing wrong right now.

Victor Martinez - Should be back any day now. Am I taking a flier in any league? Nah, but he could have a respectable month.

Travis Hafner - He’s experiencing soreness in his shoulder.  If you’re holding him for when he returns, prepare to be Pronk’d!

Franklin Gutierrez - HR yesterday. The Big FraGu is hitting .338 with 4 HRs and 13 RBIs in August. Like MC Lyte said, Act Like You Know.

Kosuke Fukudome - 3-for-4 with 4 RBIs and had a HR on Sunday. Fukudome was benched a couple of games last week and he probably was dropped in your league. He’s someone to watch just in case he gets hot.

Grady Sizemore - 2 HRs as he secures his 30/30 season and, according to my Stuff On My Cat Desk Calender, we’re not in September yet.

Nelson Cruz - HR yesterday. He had just under 2,000 HRs this season in the minors. New math: Some pop + Arlington = 8 HRs in the last month.

Jimmy Rollins - As Phillies fans readied their batteries, he went 3-for-3. Hopefully Ryan Howard gets sloppy seconds on Rollins’s slumpbuster.

Brett Myers - 7 IP, 0 ER. Like Gary Glitter, Myers has been lights out since the minors.

When James Shields swung and missed his haymaker yesterday during the Sawx/Rays brawl, Coco should’ve totally spun him around and gave him a springboard splash to the solar plexus. Then once Shields was down, Coco could’ve laid him on top of the Spanish Announcer’s table and dropped the big ‘bow. But, alas…it was Coco Crisp not Koko B. Ware.

Then three innings after the brawl, Manny tweaked a sore hammy and left the game. As he was limping through the dugout, Manny gave Youuuuuuuuk a solid shove. This was heard right before Manny shoved him. Youkilis, “You know with Big Papi on the DL…if you want to teach me the handshake you do with him, I could try to fill in…” Manny, “You’re not my real Papi! I hate you!” *shove* In the next inning, this transpired: Youk, “Sorry about that Manny. I have this extra Chupa Chup lollipop….” Manny, “Gimme! He he he… Thanks, Millar.” Youk, “We talked about this… My name is… Oh forget it.” Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Jacoby Ellsbury - Left the game with a strained wrist. No word if the injury was sustained during Chupa Chup Gate.

Jon Lester - One thing he didn’t have to fight was his control. He didn’t issue one walk. Was the first time this year he pulled off this pretty unremarkable feat.

Jair Jurrjens - The fairy Brave dust only lasts so long. Hey, whatever happened to Jaret Wright?

Ryan Franklin/Todd Wellemeyer - 7th save/7-1, respectively. Disrespectively, seriously? Coming into the year, these guys were a combined 62-73 with, like, a crappy ERA.

Brad Ausmus - The Astros are throwing in the Towles and reinstating Brad “I will be featured in a future Razzball Spotlight” Ausmus as their catcher. Razztastic.

Josh Banks - I said this yesterday in the comments, “He’s not a strikeout pitcher so your expectations should stay in line, but he could be worthwhile while the league takes time to catch up to him and he does pitch at Petco.” Wow, I’m brilliant. If they gave out virtual blogger awards I’d have a virtual mantle full in my virtual bathroom so I could pretend I virtually don’t care.

Negro League Draft - Dave Winfield helped organize a ceremonial draft where Negro League players were picked as honorary members of MLB teams. Very touching. It must be a special day for all these players as they approach their twilight years. The biggest applause was for Atlanta’s pick. A middle infielder known for his distinct batting stance and line drive power. His name is Julio Franco.

Jimmy Rollins - Was benched for not running out a popup. By that logic, Pat Burrell should’ve been benched for the last three years.

Homer Bailey - His 2008 debut was thwarted by a Cole Hamels 3 hit shutout. The game was billed as the best matchup of mulleted young pitchers since a young Randy Johnson faced off against Chuck Finley. Bailey’s control problems carried over from AAA (4 BB in 6.1 IP) and he only had 1 K and that was the pitcher. Stick with common sense and don’t add a pitcher with the name ‘Homer’ to your team…

Jay Bruce - Looks like he went oh-for-four yesterday, but we all know that is not possible, so I’m going to assume he was pulling one of those switcheroos like William Hurt does in that movie with the guy from Lost and the black guy with the droopy eye. (I would’ve said *SPOILER ALERT*, but no one would consider that movie something you could spoil and I never even saw the movie, I’m going on the spoiler from the trailer.)

On each Sunday we’re going to try and answer your 2008 fantasy baseball questions. Is this every fantasy baseball question we receive? No, but it’s a few of the better ones that were emailed directly to us at info[at]razzball.com. So if you want some fantasy baseball advice that can’t get answered in the comments section, then there you go. Please ask the minor questions i.e. Should I drop Chad Cordero for Santiago Casilla? (yes, you should) in the comment section. It’ll be a quicker answer there from Grey or I (or even a regular commenter). Thanks, we really do appreciate your support and feedback. (But if you try to hug me, it might get weird.)

QUESTION:

Thanks to Rudy for your advice in the comments on Sunday; this query’s a bit bigger, thought I’d submit it to Ask the ‘Perts. Any thoughts appreciated, sorry I tend to go on a bit.

I’ve got a pretty simple question, but it’s a like a Russian doll that keeps opening up more questions: What do you think of Jimmy Rollins’s speed value coming back?

If you think he’ll be fine, you can stop reading.

If not….

I’ve built my offense for balance, with Weeks, Rollins, and Markakis providing regular steals, Berkman(!) and Hermida chipping in occasionally, and Ellsbury & Pierre giving me options if I’m in a tight spot. Is it worth trying to maintain that balance when one of my biggest SB-threats may be reduced to a power-hitting SS?

I can probably still flip Markakis + Weeks for David Ortiz and Robinson Cano (and maybe a SP upgrade, say DiceK to Felix), use Ellsbury as a chip to upgrade power or  pitching as necessary, and try to own HR/RBI/XBH (plus maybe AVG + R if I’m lucky).

In terms of pitching, depending on how many good starts I’ve got, I’m currently flipping between trying for L/ERA/WHIP, and (if that doesn’t work) throwing everything I’ve got against the wall and hoping W’s, SV’s and K’s stick. I figure if I can upgrade to one more top-tier starter and another closer, I can own L/ERA/WHIP, with saves a little better than a coin-flip (This league uses 3 pitchers/day, no differentiation between SP/RP, 25 inning minimum). One advantage to getting rid of my speed-options on the bench is having more space for speculative RPers, and space to stream should my elite starters shit the bed, or if I’m facing the team that starts Peavy/Beckett/Halladay.

So, what are your thoughts on focusing on dominating certain categories (plus a little roster flexibility) vs. overall strength (but no flexibility)? It seems easy on paper to take 6 categories each week and hope for at least one tie, but it’s a pretty damn slim margin of error.

Full details:
12 team daily mixed league, 20 player roster, 25 innings minimum/week, no limit on player moves; 1 player/position on offense plus Util; 3 Pitchers (SP or RP).

R/HR/RBI/AVG/SB/XBH
W/L/ERA/SV/WHIP/K

Current ‘Balanced’ roster:
C Victor Martinez
1B Adrian Gonzalez
2B Rickie Weeks
SS Felipe Lopez
3B R. Zimmerman
OF L. Berkman
OF N. Markakis
OF J. Hermida
Util Conor Jackson

Bench
J. Dye
J. Ellsbury
J. Pierre
[J. Rollins DL]

D. Matsuzaka
C. Zambrano
Javier Vazquez
C. Buchholz
J. Weaver
R. Betancourt
B. Wilson
S. Casilla

Proposed Lineup:
Victor Martinez
David Ortiz
Robinson Cano
Zimmerman
JRoll
L. Berkman
J. Hermida
J. Dye/upgrade
C. Jackson/Adrian Gonzalez (whoever isn’t traded)
Backup power bat (Votto, M. Bradley, M. Alou currently available)

C. Zambrano
F. Hernandez/B. Webb/C. Hamels (via trade)
J Vazquez
Betancourt
Brian Wilson
Closer (via trade)
S. Casilla
C. Qualls (FA)
Streamer/speculative RP
Streamer

RUDY’S ANSWER:

I don’t think there’s one way to build a team.  My goal is to be competitive in all stats (too hard to win and punt a category - at least in non-H2H leagues).  So I just look for best value and, if i find enough of it, I end up w/ some flexibility.

Markakis/Weeks for Ortiz/Cano is a good trade in my book.  Tough to give up Markakis but OF are devalued in a 3 OF vs. 5 OF league more than 1B w/o a CI.  Ortiz ranks higher on my Point Shares - in draft terms, Ortiz is a high-2nd round in my book and Markakis is a 3rd/4th round pick.  Cano hasn’t looked good this year but seems to be a solid bounceback candidate.  And he’s ranked higher than Weeks.  So, yeah, I’d make that trade and move A-Gonz to UTIL (Conor Jackson is bench-worthy).

I’m not sure I mentioned it in my first reply/post to you, but I wouldn’t worry too much on SB.  You just need enough to stay competitive in it.  With the addition of XBH, it makes an SB-specialist that much more debilitating.  I’d definitely pick up Votto if he’s available (probably not anymore) as he could play OF and has 15 SB potential.

While it wouldn’t hurt to pick up another starter, it isn’t imperative.  I don’t think you have much else to offer if you trade Markakis.  I’d stick w/ that move and then play the FA wire.  You don’t need both Ellsbury and Pierre.  Dump or trade one for a usable arm.  Dump Weaver too - there should be better options out there.

Hope this helps…

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame (in conjunction with Razzball.com) is a new website dedicated to recognizing the accomplishments of Major League ballplayers during the “fantasy era” (1980-present). The greatest of these players will be elected to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame. To read more on the FBHOF, click here.

This week, the best shortstops are identified and elected. Here is the FBHOF page for the position.

The third installment for the inaugural list of inductees into the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame looks at shortstops, a position which has undergone much churn since 1980.  Previously a non-hitting position, shortstops are now arguably the strongest in fantasy baseball and this is reflected in the inductee selections.  Aside from Catchers, the shortstops have historically been one of the two weakest positions and their representation in the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame is minimal – only two made the cut.

Below is a chart the bears some explanation.  To figure out which positions have historically outperformed the others, I combed through the scores of each fantasy worthy player, determined the player’s position, and then derived the average score for each position, each year.

To make sure we are all on the same page, I:
- Took all “fantasy worthy” shortstops in 1980 and figured their group average score.
- Repeated the process for the 1980 crew of 1B, 2B, 3B, and OF.
- Then derived a similar set of scores for every other season.
- Almost done.  Next I determined the ranking of each position for each year when compared to other positions.  For example, in 1980 going across the diamond (1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF) the average scores were 5.6, 3.7, 4.9, 4.2, 5.0.  This gives a ranking (across the diamond again) of 1st, 5th, 3rd, 4th, 2nd.
- Finally, I summed the number of instances for each ranking for each position.  The result:

Please note that I excluded Catchers since they are easily the worst position and there is no need to spend any time confirming this.  I also only looked at the period of 1980 through 2002 since we don’t need to look at the most recent 5 years because any player who came to the majors just 5 years ago will not be in the hall of fame.  (Please note however that in the last 5 years the shortstops have had the best ranking three times).

What I found is not surprising.  First basemen followed by outfielders are the strongest positions historically.  Middle infielders take up the rear while the third basemen lie somewhere in between.  The point?  Shortstops rarely help your fantasy team to a great extent.  If they rarely help it stands to reason that there won’t be many elite players, especially when only looking at players who are great for at least five year stretches.   Many shortstops have had very good seasons, but not so many have done it at least five times.

Need further evidence?  After looking at this data for quite some time it has become apparent that a HOF worthy seasonal score is about 10 FBHOF points.  This is the minimum.  Here is list of the number of 10 point seasons for each position from 1980-2002:

214:  OF
81:  1B
50:  3B
37:  2B
30:  SS
19:  C
5:  DH

Shortstops just don’t help you win as much as other positions and as a result, only two make it in today.

Starting things off is arguably the best fantasy player of all time, Alex Rodriguez.  It seems it has been a lifetime since Rodriguez has had shortstop eligibility, but in his career just 31% of his seasons have been at third base.  The rules therefore require that he goes in as a shortstop and so he will.

Rodriguez’s FBHOF score is a whopping 86.9, second only to Barry Bonds for offensive positions and fourth overall.  His Peak Score of 81.2 is the best ever for a batter and his career total is third.  All told, Rodriguez has been the most dominant fantasy player of the era.  It’s worth looking at his stats season by season, here are his 5 best:

He has been so good that his 2002 season where he smacked 57 home runs doesn’t make the cut into his peak score, the core metric used for induction.  Additionally, every season in which he was a full time player Rodriguez has recorded a FBHOF score of at least 10, something no other player has even come close to duplicating.

As one of handful of players to accumulate 85 or more points, the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame will have more on A-Rod’s prowess in a special write-up in the coming weeks.

The second Hall of Fame shortstop is no stranger to greatness either.  Cal Ripken is said to have revolutionized the position and while I am not so sure about that (see Banks, Ernie) I do agree he was really, really good for a long time.

Ripken had two great seasons, 8 years apart no less.  In 1983 he batted .318 with 121 R, 27 HR, and 102 RBI.  In 1991 he was even better attaining a .323 average, with 99 R, 34 HR, 114 RBI, and 6 SB. Both of these seasons scored in high 13’s for FBHOF points and both were of Top-5 overall quality.  In between these years he churned out three other very good to great seasons which makes his peak score 61.0, second to only Rodriguez.  Ripken also joins Howard Johnson and Robin Yount as the only shortstops prior to Rodriguez to finish more than one season rated in the Top 5 overall.

His peak 5-year average batting line is .302 AVG, 107 R, 28 HR, 99 RBI, 3 SB and for those that look at this and see Miguel Tejada keep in mind the context of Ripken’s achievements.  The average league minimum during Ripken’s peak was just .247 AVG, 47 R, 7 HR, 42 RBI, and 6 SB.  This shows how suppressed offenses were while Ripken was one of the greats.

There are several shortstops who could have arguably been elected, but in the end their core FBHOF wasn’t close enough to the magical 65 points to bend the rules.  The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame is for great contributors, not just the very good.

Derek Jeter – Cap’n Jete’s was the closest to election with a solid 60.2 FBHOF score.  In the end however, he’s about a half a season away from enshrinement, and is certainly hurt by the high offensive era he has played through.  Jeter has 3 great seasons (FBHOF scores of 12.6, 12.3), one very good (10.3), and another just below the cut (9.7).  Comparing Jeter to Ripken, we find Ripken’s best was indeed superior to Jeter’s - the Oriole has two seasonal scores above 13.5 which is the difference maker between the two.

Can Jeter make it in?  With a great season, yes, of course.  He also has a chance based upon the longevity bonus that can be awarded (1% for every Fantasy Worthy Season).  Assuming he doesn’t increase his peak score, he’ll need a total of 12 non-peak fantasy worthy seasons to be inducted.  He currently stands at 7.  He’s 34 years old this year, so if he plays at league minimum standards until he’s 38, he’ll make it.  Seems likely to me.

Howard Johnson – Players like Johnson likely deserve their own section at FBHOF.  Johnson was elite for two years, finishing as the #1 and #2 ranked batter in 1989 and 1991.  During these two seasons he averaged 106 R, 37 HR, 109 RBI, 35 SB, and a .273 AVG.  He also finished first or second at his position 4 times.  However, that key 5th season isn’t close to greatness as he finished 43rd overall and this wipes out any chance he had for election.

Nomar Garciaparra – Garciaparra is in almost the same boat as Jeter, he had many very good seasons and not enough great ones.  During his peak he averaged a final ranking of 13th among batters; Ripken averaged 9th and Jeter 12th.

Alan Trammell – The Detroit Tiger isn’t all that close to election and his real baseball skills are much superior to his Fantasy Baseball skills.  He’s also hurt because he perennially seemed to miss 20 or more games so his counting stats don’t quite measure up.  In his 3rd and 4th best years he averaged 67 RBI which simply isn’t Hall of Fame material.

Barry Larkin – The National League version of Trammell:

Miguel Tejada – It surprised me how far away Tejada is from legitimate consideration.  His 2002 and 2004 seasons were great, finishing among the Top 10 batters and either 1st or 2nd at his position.  But his 2005 and 2006 campaigns fall just short as both result in less than 10 FBHOF points, and his 5th best is well off the mark.  He finished 41st among batters in 2003.  He’s off to a great start in 2008 though, so we can’t quite count him out forever.