Fantasy Baseball Advice

Don Mattingly said that Kenley Jansen is now his closer.  His exact words were, “There was a time and a place to put a closer in the setup role and an inferior pitcher in the closer role and that time has past.  I will know try to figure out why I ever shaved my mustache.  Things were much easier when Joe Torre was in the dugout managing the team and not on speed dial.  ‘Ooh, I’m Joe Torre, I take twenty minutes to return a text.’  C’mon, man, I can only ask for a replay review so many times!  I wonder if I can get Paul Sorvino to be my bench coach.  Or Joe Mantegna, he also kinda looks like Torre.”  Jansen will be a $12 Salad in all leagues by July, if not sooner.  Yes, he should be owned in all leagues, if he isn’t already.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jhoulys Chacin – Went to the Disgraceful List when he refused his assignment to Triple-A.  If you are gonna suck in your first 5 MLB starts of the year, Jhoulys you can do is report to AAA.

Christian Friedrich – Once top prospect fell off of radars due to injuries and velocity issues.  This year, he’s looked solid in Triple-A with 27 Ks and 4 walks.  It’s like this Christian is born again!  I wouldn’t go near him with a 120 inch pole yet in mixed leagues, but in NL-Only leagues I’d grab him for his start vs. the Padres.  Yeah, those Padres.  Wait, those were the same Padres that hit Pomenranz so hard PETA was called in.

Alex White – It’s all Rockies pitchers all the time.  White is also making Triple-A hitters seem like a bunch of minors (21/8 K/BB).  In mixed leagues, I wouldn’t carry White, said in a sultry voice.  For now, he’s an NL-Only flyer.  (He also gets the Padres.  Yup, still those Padres.)

Jayson Werth – As originally announced here after I read it elsewhere, Werth will miss 12 weeks with wrist surgery after breaking it Sunday night.  He must be pist.  If I didn’t have the DL room, I’d drop Werth.  Wrists are kinda important for hitters and there’s a chance, even if he returns this year, he might not be right until next year.

Tyler Moore – Was called up by the Nats and showed a ton of power in the minors, but for now he’s a bench bat on the Nats.  So in deep NL-Only leagues, he’s just a temp fill-in, i.e., I wouldn’t marry Tyler Moore.

Kevin Youkilis – On his rehab, he started a walking program.  I don’t get it; taking walks was about the only thing he could still do.

Will Middlebrooks – 3-for-5 with 2 homers as the Red Sox contemplate telling Youuuuk to take a long walk.  Middlebrooks will cool down at some point, but who cares?  Pick him up.  Now.

Josh Willingham – Didn’t start yesterday due to a skin condition near his mouth.  Sounds like The Other White Meat’s throbbing lardons are getting him in trouble.

Francisco Liriano – 5 IP, 4 ER.  Incredible that Liriano is still starting for the Twins, then again there’s players in their starting lineup that probably aren’t on any other team’s roster:  Jamey Carroll, Danny Valencia, Brian Dozier, Eric Komastu, Trevor Plouffe and Chris Parmelee.  Just because they play in Target Field doesn’t mean they have to only shop in bargain bins.

Giancarlo Stanton – Hit his 6th homer in the last ten games.  Rawr, rawr like a Stanton dragon!

Carlos Zambrano – 9 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 9 Ks.  As noted in the preseason, “Ozzie will either bond with Zambrano and have him produce his best year since the mid-naughts or their personalities together will become so combustible that Little Havana will break from the union and form the 51st state with Ozzie becoming Supreme Leader of Little Havana and having Zambrano executed.”  And that’s me noting me!  It looks like the former is coming true.  I’d absolutely grab Big Z in the non-sexual way.  Could be a solid 4th to 5th fantasy starter in mixed leagues.  Crayola Canyon definitely won’t hurt.

Brandon Snyder – 3-for-5, 2 runs and 6 RBIs with his 2nd homer.  Now has two homers in his last three starts.  Only problem is it took nearly a week to get 3 starts.

Nelson Cruz – 3-for-4, 3 runs.  Could the season long drought finally be coming to an end?  C’mon, Cruz, make it rain, man.

Aubrey Huff – Returned from the DL for anxiety related reasons.  Guess that means he’s back from lunch.

Cole Hamels – Guaranteed himself a suspension by admitting he threw at Bryce Harper.  When asked by teammates and management why he couldn’t show more restraint on what he says to the press, Cole replied, “I did show restraint.  I didn’t mention how my ‘old school pitching’ is modeled after the Romans and I threw at Harper because his eye black reminded me of that Christ-wannabe, Tim Tebow.”

Philip Humber – 2 1/3 IP, 8 ER.  Reminds me of the time I went through a perfect fartless vacation weekend with a girlfriend and then woke up the next morning back at my apartment and nearly Dutch Oven’d myself to death.

Doug Fister – 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Sure, it doesn’t hurt to return to a matchup against the M’s, but I’d still give Fister a fighting chance on a mixed league team.

Ernesto Frieri – Scioscia announced that Frieri or Walden will get saves while Downs is, uh, down.  Welcome, Frieri, to saver town.  Hopefully, Frieri will enter each game in a red 1967 convertible Chevy Camaro, and when he leans in to get the signal from the catcher, he does The Hunch.

Mike Trout – Sat out yesterday for Bourjos.  They need Morales to hurt himself (while hurting Vernon Wells).  The Sciosciapath doesn’t have cojones to start Pujols at 3rd base.  Somewhere, La Russa’s reading that and his feathered hair is feeling a little bouncier.

Jonathan Papelbon – 1 IP, 3 ER.  Kazaam!

Jordany Valdespin – Hit the game winning homer.  He has great speed and some decent power (15 homers, 33 steals last year in Double-A), but I’m not sure the Mets will play him (they should, but not sure they will).  Plus, his name sounds like it’s from a Harry Potter Character Name Generator.

Cody Ransom – 2-for-5, 2 RBIs and his 4th homer, as he bats .351.  Yes, he should be playing every day.  No, he’s not.  Yes, he’s old so this sudden burst won’t continue.  No, it doesn’t matter.

Guillermo Mota – 100 games for a second positive PED test.  PEDS are just his M.O. (Mota Operandi).

Jered Weaver – 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Well, Johnny Vander Meer’s family can stop following him around now.

Lance Lynn – 5 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners (4 BBs), 7 Ks, lowering his ERA to 1.40.  Okay, but now I’m officially concerned about an upcoming correction.  4 walks in 5 innings is not good and 1.40 ERA won’t stay that low.

Allen Craig – 2-for-3, 2 runs, 2 RBIs and his 2nd homer.  I told you to grab him yesterday.  What’s changed?  The day.

Jeff Samardzija – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks.  You know that guy that you invited last second to join your league who you really don’t like and is currently in first?  He’s going to pick up Samardzija if you don’t.

Bryan LaHair – 1-for-3 as LaHair moussed his 8th homer.

Ian Stewart – 1-for-3 with his 3rd homer.  Does he have a section of Wrigley that dresses up like Cubs with Stewart jerseys called Stewart’s Root Bears?

Adrian Cardenas – The Cubs called up the ex A’s prospect to be the UTIL after Blake DeWitt was DFA’d (unfortunately his mom Joyce never hooked up with Theo’s dad, Juan, at the 70′s Battle of the Network Stars).  He’s played 2nd in the minors and delivers high average, average speed, and a below average glove.  Given that the Cubs have a dinosaur playing second, he could see some ABs if he’s hitting.  Stash for NL-only.

Wilson Betemit – 1-for-3 with his 4th homer (and third in the last ten games).  He also has a hit in nine of his last ten games while batting .357.  There, folks, is your hot schmotato.

J.J. Hardy – 3-for-4.  Actually, more impressed with a three hit night from Hardy than I would be with a 1-for-4 with a homer night.  As my ex-girlfriends will tell you, I’m a small ball kinda guy.

Edinson Volquez – 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners, 5 Ks.  A hodgepadre that was pitchslapped by Pomeranz.  (I can only imagine if this is someone’s first time reading the site.  Did he say ‘A hodgepadre that was pitchslapped?’  Where am I and how do I get back to ESPN?)

Dale Thayer – Thayer throwing pills for the save yesterday — what a relief!   Since Cashner threw 39 pitches the day before, he wasn’t available.  I’d hold Cashner, but this also proves that Gregerson is nowhere near getting saves.

Zack Cozart – 1-for-5 with his 3rd homer, but only his 7th RBI.  Could the pitcher’s spot get on base once in a while?  Geez…

Alex Gonzalez – Tore his ACL, which comes just days after Gamel also tore his ACL.  The last time a Milwaukee duo tore up joints like that, it was Laverne & Shirley after Lenny & Squiggy slipped some Spanish Fly in their Schlitzes.

The Yankees got bested by the team that gave Adam Jones away in a chump trade.  I mean, yikes with a side of damn.  I could even see adding seven a’s into that damn for good measure.  Michael Pineda is done for the year with a torn labrum, which only sounds like an injury that a female gymnast would get.  Mariners threw him for 340 innings in 2011 and then traded him to the Yankees for their best prospect.  Hey, Yankees, say hello to your mother for me!  Pineda sounds like he’s done for the year.  This is good for teams that drafted him, but had an “Only one Pineda per team” clause.  For all other teams that drafted him this isn’t good news.  Drop him like a hot Pineda.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ryan Zimmerman – He’s gonna try to hit on Thursday.  I kinda hope it goes badly, and I own him.  Here’s the scenario I see happening if it goes well:  He returns on Friday, reinjures himself and then really needs 15 days from Saturday.  At least if his hitting session goes poorly, the Nats can backdate his DL stint.  Yes, I’m hopeful for a DL stint.  Yes, I’m Googling his address so I can have a “word” with him.

Jim Johnson – Headed for more tests as the doctors try to figure out what’s wrong with him.  “His peripherals look terrible, but he has so many saves.  Hey, why are we looking at box scores on an X-ray light box?”  That was the doctors after the first round of tests.  Pedro Strop is the pick up for the time being.  Hopefully, Strop isn’t short for closetastrophe.

Shin-Soo Choo – Sat on the bench last night as Shin-Soo Healthy, Hamstring-Soo Not.

Ike Davis – Dropped to 7th in the order, which is terrible for his value.  This was only surprising to me because, no matter how bad Davis has been, for the life of me I couldn’t think of six hitters better than Davis in the Mets lineup.  Hairston?  Tejada?  Really, Seth Myers?

Lorenzo Cain – Had a setback with his groin.  Pain…Sugar!  Sounds like he’s not coming back for at least another week.

Sergio Santos – Out for at least 4 weeks.  Could easily lose Santos until July.  That’s just me being real with you.  See, the truth is, everyone wants to know how many saves Cordero is gonna get or what closers I’m still cool with.  Cordero could get more saves than Santos this year.  If Cordero’s unowned in your league, then your league’s abandoned.  Makes me wonder why you’re reading this, but love your dedication.

Carl Crawford – Headed to Dr. Freeze with a sore elbow.  Looks like Crawford found a new joint to stink up.  Anyone know if Carl has to be with me if I go to City Hall and have his last name changed to Crawful?  No word on how long he’s going to be out, but I’m sure Dr. Freeze will find something to sideline him at least two months.  We shall see.  Or not.  Your choice.

Pedro Alvarez – 3-for-8, 2 RBIs, 2 runs as he hit two homers and a double in the doubleheader.  I told you 18 months ago that he was gonna break out!  Excuse me if I’m just too cutting edge for you.

Aubrey Huff – To the DL with an anxiety disorder.  At least someone is feeling guilty about taking Brandon Belt’s playing time.  Aubrey just needs some good male bonding time with his old college teammate, Pat Burrell.  “Anxiety’s just another name for you need to get laid more.”  That’s Pat Burrell’s motto.

Juan Nicasio – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 10 baserunners, 5 Ks as he battled James McDonald, who threw seven innings of 1 hit ball with 8 Ks and 3 walks.  Even though this game and their seasons so far tell the opposite story, I like Nicasio better than McDonald.  As a commenter said the other day, maybe it’s because Juan’s last name makes me think of my grade school watch calculator.  In the end, I wouldn’t say either are necessarily must-starts in shallower mixed leagues.

Jhoulys Chacin – 5 IP, 5 ER vs. the Pirates.  Still holding him after I told you to drop him the first week of the season?  How’s that working out for you?

Corey Hart – 2-for-3 with his sixth homer.  SIX HOMERS, WHO KNEW?  Well, Al Caps, Corey Hart owners maybe.  His family–  I WAS BEING RHETORICAL.

Carlos Gomez – 2-for-5, batting .371.  I’d say he’s a hot schmotato, but the Brewers aren’t playing him anywhere close to every day.

Jose Altuve – 4-for-5, 3 runs, 1 RBI.  Rudy’s poster child is having a nice breakout as he bats .377 on the year.  Oh, and I was using the alternate definition of “poster child.”  Rudy literally dresses his child in Altuve posters. Rudy also talked about him in this week’s podcast (you know, the one where Corbin Bernsen was a guest).

David Freese – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 4th homer.  You know how someone punts 3rd base in your league and gets lucky with one of their flyers?  Whoever drafted Freese looks like that guy this year.

Lance Lynn – 8 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Now has an ERA of 1.33.  Yeah, I told you to pick him up before the season even started, but I don’t need another notch in my belt; I’m skinny.

Bryan LaHair – 1-for-4 with a solo homer.  Did you know I have French ancestry and my family name was once LaBright?  Totally not a true story.  I own LaHair (above my LaLip) in an NL-Only league and he’s fighting it out with my cougar for my love.  The LaHairness is racing for mixed league value, and I’d want to be the one to own him.

Trevor Cahill – 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER which comes after a 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER effort.  Can’t wait for his next 5 IP, 4 ER start.  I keed with your fantasy feelings.  In most leagues, I’d try to hold onto Cahill; I think he’ll be better and he only has a 3.70 ERA; it’s not like he’s Scherzer’ing all over your team.

Jarrod Parker – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks.  How was that debut?  How about sparkerling?  Yes, I’d pick him up.  Yes, in your league too.  I just went over my Jarrod Parker fantasy the other day.  I wrote it while sitting on top of a crescent moon with an umbrella drink.

Alex Liddi – 2-for-5 with his 2nd homer in as many games.  Being the one major leaguer that was born in Italy has its drawbacks for Liddi, after a base hit in the sixth, he peered across the diamond to his third base coach giving signs and thought he was flipping him off.

Jason Hammel – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Has close to a K/IP, a 1.00 WHIP and a 1.73 ERA.  I’m officially on board, but there’s one problem.  Or caveat if you’re Latin.  His next start is in the House They Built Across The Street From The House Ruth Built.  I want no part of that start.  So if your league is a bunch of vultures, grab Hammel now and bench him.  If you think you can get Hammel even if he pitches well at New York, then let him sit on waivers for a week.

Kyle Drabek – 6 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 3 Ks.  I’ve said to pick him up for, like, three straight weeks.  I’m moving on now.  You do what you do, I’ll do what I do and we’ll let our probation officers figure out the rest.

Chris Sale – 8 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  I like Parker this much, but I like Sale this much.  I was holding my arms further apart for Sale.

Hector Santiago – 1/3 IP, 3 ER, giving up a homer to the Cuban raftee, Yoenis.  What the H. Santiago?  About two weeks ago, I said Santiago wouldn’t make it out of April with the closer job.  Well, his ERA is 8.53 and literally everyone in their bullpen is better.  I mean, no shizz here, everyone.  I think Reed will end up getting saves at some point, but Thornton’s been solid and he has that ever elusive closer experience gene that MIT is currently trying to grow in a Petri dish for the Red Sox.  If I had to guess, and that’s what I’m doing at this point, I’d pick up Thornton first.  If he’s gone, I’d speculate on Reed.  If Reed’s gone, make me a Denver omelet.  Oh, well.  I tried.

Omar Infante – 2-for-4 with his 5th home run.  Infante has as many homers as Stanton has RBIs.  FMFBBL!

Billy Butler – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs and 2 homers.  This was the first time he heard “what a pair” and didn’t blush.

Ubaldo Jimenez – 6 IP, 4 ER, 9 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Ubaldo won the award yesterday for the most fantasy owners looking to drop him.  I think it might be the right move too.  I’m tilting in that direction.  I would put him on my bench in most leagues and see what he does next time out.

Angel Pagan – 1-for-5 with a home run.  He has 17 hits in 17 games played.  Mr. Obvious, “He’s averaging one hit every game.”  He also has two homers in the last 5 games.  I’m not saying he’s a hot schmotato yet, but he’s on the brink of it.  Right now, he’s been in the microwave for eight minutes and he’s still a bit too solid when you stick a fork in him.

Brennan Boesch – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer in 3 games.  Pick him up immediately!  Seriously, don’t make me explain it to you.  If he was dropped, grab him.  Now.

C.J. Wilson – 7 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 11 Ks.  I think I got some funny looks by ranking Wilson as high as I did in the preseason, but I’d take him over Haren at this point.  Yeah, I said it.

Vernon Wells – 2-for-4 with his 4th homer as he bats .239.  If he hits two more homers by next week and raises his average to .260 (which would only really take, like, two 3-for-4 games), I’m gonna mention how I told you to draft him in the preseason.  If he doesn’t do one of those two things, we’ll once again go back to never mentioning that I ever suggested you draft him.  Hey, at least I’m honest with you about my hedging.  Bee tee dubya, he has 4 more homers than Stanton.  I’m crying right now, please look away.  Hey, my tears are wiping Stanton’s name off my Trapper Keeper.  What does that mean?  I wish I had a pint of ice cream and… Why isn’t Lifetime playing Bride Wars!?

Drew Storen is headed to see Dr. Freeze.  Here’s what I said about three weeks ago, “Drew Storen had arm discomfort… About two weeks ago (so that was about five weeks ago now; this is me adding an addendum — Hey!  Okay, back to the quote).  He hasn’t pitched in a game since March 7th (that’s more than a month ago; okay, maybe I didn’t need to clarify that) and had soreness in his biceps playing catch yesterday (that’s less than a month ago, but more than three weeks ago… Oh, forget.  I’m coming out of this quote.)”  And that’s me coming out of my quote prematurely!  That’s what she said!  Wait, huh?  My guess is Storen will probably be out for a few months.  You don’t go see Dr. Freeze for the lollipops.  Unless he’s removing your arm and giving you lollipop appendages.  “Hey, guys, stop calling me a Dum-Dum and I’m serious!”  We shall see on when Storen will return.  I’ve been preaching about Henry Rodriguez for about three weeks too.  He’s a wild cat.  Yesterday, he came in and seduced me with his filth, but left me sad and alone with the wild.  (The preceding was not an excerpt from my soon to be released western novel, “Saddle Up To My Stache.”)  If HanK-Rod is still out there, I’d grab him.  If Lidge is out there, I’d grab him too.  I’m pretty sure Davey will decide on one closer within the next week or so and you’ll be able to drop the guy not getting saves.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Anibal Sanchez – 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  It’s a solid start, so I’m not gonna complain too much, which is obviously leading into me complaining.  Now, it’s the first start of the year for Anibal, couldn’t we have been happy with 6 strong innings and not sent him out there to give up two runs in the 7th?  Stupid Ozzie!  (By the way, I made “Stupid Ozzie” a shortcut on my computer.  Now whenever I type “St” it fills in the rest with Stupid Ozzie.)

Giancarlo Stupid Ozzie – Was scratched with knee pain.  The Marlins aren’t that concerned, but the Marlins also decided to put a giant sculpture of unicorn vomit in their outfield, so I’m not sure how much we should trust them.

Omar Infante – 2-for-4 with 2 homers, and now has 3 homers on the year.  Look at the Infante getting all grown up.  Who’s the big boy?  You’re the big boy.

Emilio Bonifacio – 3-for-4 with his 4th steal in 5 games.  Was actually kinda bummed I didn’t draft Bonifacio on any teams.  I was like three Phillie Blunts high on him when I did my rankings.  Oh, well, can’t get everyone I suppose, especially when Rudy refused to draft him on any of our teams.  *shakes fist* Rudy!

Brandon Phillips – Left yesterday’s game with a hamstring cramp.  Doesn’t Midol make something for that?

Jonathan Papelbon – 1 IP, 1 ER.  Kazaam!

Jhoulys Chacin – 4 IP, 4 ER, 9 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Worst thing you can do is overreact early on to one start or a few oh-fer’s.  With that said, Yo-Lease is a mess.  His velocity’s down, his walks are up, he’s probably dealing with an injury…. It’s what got Khalil Greene in the end, the Silent H is too much of a burden!  Yo-lease is up, move out!

Dexter Fowler – 0-for-4 yesterday as he was dropped from leadoff to the two hole.  The way he’s hitting the two hole may be appropriate figuratively, but he’s literally going to be in the eight hole soon.

Barry Zito – 9 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 4 Ks as he threw his first shutout since 2003.  After the game, Zito celebrated with a dip in the jay-couz.  (<–PNSFWUYWAAPPC — Potentially Not Safe For Work Unless You Work At A Porn Production Company)

Daniel Bard – Red Sox reiterated that they want Bard as a starter.  We shall see how they feel after Bard’s start on Tuesday vs. the Blue Jays.  I’m putting the over/under for runs at 5 and the walks at 4.  Anyone want any action?

Alfredo Aceves – Threw a perfect inning to get the save.  For now, Red Sox Nation delayed their trip to Lake Tahoe with ‘fredo.

Chipper Jones – Glass Chipper could be activated for Tuesday.  He’s probably hoping to get in the lineup immediately, so he can get injured again by the weekend.

C.J. Wilson – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks as he held the heart of the Twins order to… Hmm, where is the heart of the Twins order?

Hector Noesi – 3 IP, 7ER and Yu Darvish (5 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 12 baserunners, 5 Ks) as they combined to throw more hangers than Joan Crawford.

Josh Hamilton – 3-for-5 with a homer as he whet someone’s appetite for dance.

Brett Gardner – 1-for-1 with a steal.  Since he wasn’t very good against lefties, Girardi is using a platoon with Andruw Jones and a Waterpik to get between his braces.  Firstly, Gardner still gets in the game and steals a base (the reason you have him).  Secondly, this platoon sticks if Gardner doesn’t hit.  Last year, he hit .194 in April and .233 vs. lefties, so maybe he’s doing us a favor.  Thirdly, the platoon only sticks if the Yankees’ old and wonky lineup stays healthy.  Fourthly, there’s no fourthly.

Jake Westbrook – 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Zoinks!  The Ghost of Dave Duncan left a walkthrough for Jake and his friends to Escape from Great American Ballpark.

David Freese – 2-for-5 and his 2nd homer.  I’ll admit that I’m surprised by Freese’s fast start.  I thought he was an Ecksteinian (which looks odd, but Ecksteinesque sounded weird in my head) type MVP and he’d go back to being a role player.  Now, he’s just looking like he’s on a roll, player!

Chris Sale – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 5 Ks.  If you’re joining us late — where you been?!  You missed about 20,000 offseason words.  I’ll summarize.  Yadda Anibal yadda Bruce yadda Anibal yadda Bruce yadda Bumgarner yadda ouch my Bum yadda Anibal and my Chris Sale fantasy.

Hector Santiago – 1 IP, 1 ER and the save.  Honestly, how long you think this Santiago thing is gonna last?  Two weeks?  Three weeks?  A month?  I’m thinking maybe three weeks.

Henderson Alvarez – 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Here’s what I said in the past about Alvarez, “Ground ball, pitch-to-contact pitcher who doesn’t strike out a whole lot of hitters.  In other words, the complete antithesis to every other Blue Jay pitcher.  Not wild, low Ks, kinda boring.”  And that’s me quoting me!  I’m not a big fan, but he could have match-up potential.

Sergio Santos – 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 baserunners and the blown save.  Red light, Chinese fire drill, pick up Francisco Cordero, get back in the car, buckle up, it’s gonna be a bumpy ride.

Tommy Milone – 8 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 0 Ks.  He won’t have any Ks ever, which is usually a than, but no thans.  But he will help you with your ratios.  Yes, I’d grab him.  Yes, right now.

Darwin Barney – 1-for-3 with a homer for The Purple Evolutionist.  His best month last year was April.  As Darwin will tell you, April is the beginning of all things (or at least baseball).

Bryan LaHair – 2-for-4 and a homer.  When you put ‘power upside’ into Google translator, it spits back “Anything but James Loney.  God, he annoys me.  You should try LaHair in deep leagues.  Now where’s my scotch?!” Geez, Google translator sounds a bit testy.

Brian Matusz – 4 IP, 4 ER.  How’s that momentum from his spring training going?

Matt Wieters – 4-for-4 with his 2nd home run of the year.  Matt Wieters Fact Number #367:  He once porked Boog Powell’s daughter while singing “Ironic” by Alanis Morissette.

Frank Francisco – Terry Collins said that Francisco is still dealing with some knee inflammation, but he should be fine.  If they need to rest him as the Mets go 162-0, they could turn to Jon Rauch or Miguel Batista, the poet laureate of baseball.  When Miguel Batista heard the news, he said, “Francisco’s on an un-mended knee… When Terry needs help, he’ll call me, sí… If Francisco’s on the shelf for a while and not feeling spry, then they’ll call Rauch, especially if that shelf’s high,” then Batista took off his Mets hat that had a feather in it and bowed.

I could probably draft a team of these starters, who are drafted after the 150 mark in mock drafts, and win your league’s pitching stats.  In this post last year was Ricky Romero, Hellickson, Kuroda, Gio Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Chacin, Cueto, and Daniel Hudson.  I had those guys on multiple teams.  I don’t say this to brag, but I’m really good at targeting starters to, um, target.  Well, I’m good with hitters too, but starters I’m really good.  I’d like to say it’s because I’m smart, but since I’m sorta dumb I’m not sure what it is.  Maybe I’m an idiot savant, who I believe was Doug Savant’s cousin that had a walk-on part on Melrose Place, the Original.  And with all of that said, you should still draft a starter or two before you see any of these names on the top of your draft list.  Well, you know what to do from my top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  It’s good to have a safe starter or two before you go upside.  In the immortal words of some drunk tightrope walker, “I don’t need the net under the trapeze but I want it there.  Burp.”  There’s also a pitchers pairings post to help you along with your staff.  That’s what she said!  Wait, what?  Finally, you can check out APPLES.  Anyway, here’s some starters to target in your 2012 fantasy baseball drafts:

Ubaldo Jimenez – Under that link is my projections and thoughts.  To read a less optimistic man’s thoughts on Ubaldo, click on the thing that says “thoughts on Ubaldo.”  Though that might’ve been clear.  I need a mentee to seamlessly link to shizz.

Brandon Morrow – I’ve put years of love into Morrow (that sounds like the start to a cheesy poem).  This is all I ask, one good year for Morrow (that’s an even cheesier poem start).  I can almost guarantee if he’s good this year, everyone else will like him next year and I’ll end up going the other way (cause I think if Morrow’s going to be good, it’s gonna take some luck (that sounds more like song lyrics)).

Derek Holland – My heart’s saying Holland is a potential bargain where he’s currently being drafted, but my brain is saying watch out for pitchers in Arlington.  I guess my heart and my brain are going Dutch with my excitement for Holland.

Jaime Garcia – Does he enter games to Funkytown, but his first name is substituted in for Funky?  He should.  Give the ADL something to get worked up about.

Trevor Cahill – It’s nice when you can forget BABIP, xFIP, MESHUGAS and you can fall back on simpler times like, “He was traded to the NL, that’s good for his value.”

Doug Fister -  Fister, but I hardly remember placing him in a favorable tier!  Hmm, that didn’t work so well.  But it is true.  I haven’t changed my opinion on him, but he’s also being drafted later than I think he should be, so there’s that.

Jhoulys Chacin – Know what it means when a pitcher ends up on this list two years in a row, even after producing solid results the year before?  He pitches his home games in Colorado.

Brandon McCarthy – If the last few names above McCarthy could’ve been called, “Look at the top 60 starters post.”  This next plouping could be called, “Top 80 starters.”  Two points for those that remember my use of plouping.  Better yet, you’re like a cyclops with a monocle!

Scott Baker – I doubt we see a full season from Baker, but — and this is a J. Lo-sized but — if we do, he could be a top 25 starter.  How’s dem apples?  Golden Delicious!

Tommy Milone – Is it Tom Milone or Tommy?  “Are you my brother Rob or Disco Bob?”  A nickel to anyone that gets that reference without the aid of Google.  Too late, you cheated.  You know someone who’s not cheating, but loving you all slow and low like a good BBQ?  Tommy Milone.  Yeah, so Peacock didn’t come up aces, but instead dropped a deuce.  Milone looks like he’s gonna make the A’s staff and pitch in a park that ends in “co.”  That’s good news.  Also good news, he doesn’t walk anyone, which will limit the amount he could roofie you.  Milone’s 2011 in Triple-A was a 3.22 ERA with a 155/16 K/BB ratio.  The not-so-great news, he’s not going to win any games or put up huge Ks.  That’s all right; you don’t draft Wins and solid ratio help from a late-round flyer can be helpful.  For the season, I’ll give him the line 7-9/3.70/1.18/130.  Solid last man on the staff stuff, no bluff, Aubrey Huff.  Sorry, got a little Seussian there.

Jake Peavy – See what I said about Scott Baker and add an extra exclamation mark.  Now remove a comma.  Okay, put a period there.  Yeah, that’s about right.

Edinson Volquez – We’re only three years removed from Edinson having 200+ Ks and a 3.21 ERA and now he’s gonna be in Petco.  As Pauly D would tell you, you don’t come in with a big banana and expect everything to be peaches, but it’s worth a shot.

Tim Stauffer -  I evaluate him as a Hodgepadre with a chance for more.  Why am I not a scout for a major league baseball team?!  “How does Stauffer look, Grey?”  “He’s a Hodgepadre with a chance for more.”  “I like when you use made-up words and talk nonsense.”  “There’s more where that came from!”

Randall Delgado – I could’ve also put Teheran here.  Tim Hudson is out for a month.  I do think he returns and bumps someone from the rotation, but it doesn’t mean if Delgado or Teheran are pitching well they will definitely be the ones bumped.  Jar-Jar isn’t the bill of good health and Hanson’s got a shoulder issue… Let’s just say Teheran and Delgado could both be in the rotation by May 1st.  Here’s a reason to be optimistic about Delgado.  Here’s a reason to be optimistic about Teheran:  2.55 ERA in Triple-A last year in 144 2/3 IP.

Vance Worley – In 131 2/3 innings last year, he had the stats of 11-3/3.01/1.23/119.  In the top 60 starters post, I gave Worley the projections of 12-9/3.75/1.27/130.  I’ll tell you what, those numbers are crazy conservative.  February Grey must’ve had his shorts on too tight that day.  Worley is only getting 11 Ks more from last year when he could throw 200 innings without being in danger?  He’s only winning one more game?  I said in that rankings post that I was worried about a sophomore slump, I must’ve been really worried.  I kinda want to go in, give Worley 30 more Ks, three more wins and ask February Grey what he was thinking.  February Grey, “Don’t believe me at your own risk.  See you next year… Muahahahahahaha…”

Jonathan Sanchez – I don’t buy that a guy like Filthy Sanchez, who walks everyone no matter the batter, will benefit much from the league switch and having hitters less familiar with him.  He still strikes out more than a hitter per inning and can luck into an ERA and WHIP anywhere from 3.07/1.23 (2010 numbers) to 4.26/144 (2011 numbers).  It’s worth taking the chance on that late.

Bud Norris – In drafts, when you see Bud, I would add a bid.  I think there was a pun in there, but I’m not entirely sure.

Mike Minor – On one hand, the Braves don’t seem to share my love of Mike Minor.  On the other hand, Hudson’s out for at least a month so they have room.  On the third hand that is actually a foot wearing a mitten, you’re late in your draft, take the flyer.  On the fourth hand that is actually one of this Hulk Hogan #1 foam hands, he’s having a great spring.

Shelby Miller – In the Cards’ minor league review, Scott said, “By all accounts, Miller has the repertoire and mental makeup of a big league ace.  With an effortless mid-90s fastball, a plus curveball, and a plus changeup, to go along with solid command, the 21-year-old should work his way into the St. Louis rotation at some point during twelve after twenty.”  Okay, he didn’t use twelve after twenty, but he should’ve.

Chris Sale – Rather than posting the Awolnation song in the Verlander overrated post, I probably should’ve put it in Chris’s sleeper post.  SALE!

Homer Bailey – In a draft recently, I told Rudy I liked Homer Bailey this year.  He said, “The Homer Bailey that pitches in major league baseball?”  Yeah, so Bailey hasn’t given much reason to trust him in his major league career, but his xFIP last year was respectable and he’s so overdue for a breakout.  And there’s the most scientific and least scientific reason jammed into one sentence.

Some analyses strike gold.  Some analyses are an immediate bust.  It’s the third type – the ‘fool’s gold’ type – that are the most frustrating.  After three years of middling predictions, I think my ‘risky pitcher’ analysis from a couple years ago is falling into that 3rd category.

Over the past 7 years, about 24% of pitchers coming off seasons with 2,700+ pitches fit one of the two dropoff criteria (< 2,000 pitchers or, roughly, missing 1/3 of the season or more) or have a significant drop in their skills (measured as xFIP increased by .75+).

I figured that if I could identify some commonalities among the injured pitchers in past years that it would help me predict which pitchers were more risky in upcoming years.  After 3 years of hitting the yearly average in my predictions, I’m resigned to the fact that the findings in my initial analysis were either fluky or I’m really bad at applying the findings.  (Or I need Tom Verducci’s assistance at being less self-critical.)

Below are my results from last year.  About 20% of pitchers had a dropoff season – my most notable misses are Josh Johnson (had predicted him the previous year), Jonathan Sanchez, Dallas Braden, Clayton Richard, Brian Matusz, and Brett Cecil.  (Wow, that list falls off fast, doesn’t it?).  My most impressive accomplishment was predicting Gio Gonzalez gets traded to the Nationals and being the first on record to nickname him Nat Gio.  Hopefully he keeps getting as much drop on his curveball as the breasts typically found in Nat Geo.

Despite my lack of success, I still shy away from drafting more than one pitcher with two of the following three criteria:   1) Throws a lot of sliders, 2) 700+ MLB pitch differential from previous year, and 3) Coming off first season with a full workload (2,500+ pitches).  See below for the dropoff statistics of pitchers that fall under these categories.

Here are ten otherwise solid pitchers that I’d prefer to have no more than 1 on my team if I could avoid it.  Consider my tepid performance to date before taking it too much to heart

(notes: pitch increase totals only include MLB, only includes pitchers who had close to a full season last year – obviously players who were injured most/all of last year like Santana and Peavy are risky.  Also shied away from known injury concerns like Marcum and Carpenter)

Michael Pineda (31.5% sliders, 2,688 pitches) – I’ve liked this guy the moment I first heard his name – probably because it made me think of empanadas which are delicious.  It seems like his poor 2nd half + velocity drop is scaring off a lot of drafters.  He went 136th in my 12-team ‘expert’ Razzball Commenter League.  Can’t argue with selecting him there but I had the 135th pick, planned to take Cory Luebke, and when he was gone, took a closer instead.

Madison Bumgarner (32.4% sliders, 1,500 pitch increase) – I love the Mad-Bum.   We drafted him in the 6th round of our 15 Team LABR mixed league.  Might’ve had him in a couple more leagues but the bidding got too high.  But last year was his first full year in the bigs and he throws a whopping 32% sliders – 4th highest among SPs – and it’s his most effective pitch (3rd best slider among starting pitchers with a wSL of 17.7 – i.e., his slider saved 17 runs above the average pitch).  His fastball came in about league average for effectiveness.  There are pitchers who can manage this type of pitch mix (Clayton Kershaw, CC Sabathia) but it’s a little more risky until they’ve proven they can do it in back-to-back seasons.  (NOTE: Commenters have noted that there is disagreement about Pitch F/X’s classification of Bumgarner’s cutter as a slider and that his true slider rate might be closer to 20%.  That doesn’t remove his risk but definitely a more sustainable usage rate.  I can’t think of another recent lefty who managed a 30+% slider rate and had a productive career except for Randy Johnson – I imagine Carlton had similar usage rates too.).

Jhoulys Chacin (18.9% sliders, +834 pitch increase) – Chacin was on my 2011 list but lived up to his draft value – delivering 11 wins and a 3.64 ERA.  But his K/rate dropped from 9.1 K/9 in 2010 to 6.96 in 2011.  The part that scares me most (and I mentioned this in 2010) is that he is highly dependent on breaking pitches for success and he’s in the worst home stadium for breaking pitches.  His fastball was the 7th worst in baseball amongst starters last year on a per-pitch basis (wFB/C) while his slider, curveball, and changeup were all above average.  His changeup might be his saving grace in 2012 as it was the only pitch of the four that improved in effectiveness between 2010 and 2011.  (Note:  We have him on our LABR team too….getting a little concerned.)

Brandon McCarthy (2% sliders, 2,499 pitch increase) – The formula for getting onto the cover of ESPN Magazine seems to be this:  one marginally successful season + good sense of humor + hot wife.  McCarthy was a prized prospect that White Sox GM Kenny Williams was able to swap for the Rangers’ John Danks (one of the few marks against otherwise awesome GM Jon Daniels).  He couldn’t manage more than 120 IP in a year (majors + minors) between 2005-2010.  When he did pitch, he had bad K and BB rates.  Then, after maybe spending a week at Dave Duncan sleepaway camp, he emerges in 2011 as a ground ball pitcher with great control (1.32 BB/9) to balance against a mediocre 6.5 K/9.  He’s a fine late round pick but I see little upside with a higher than average chance of missing significant time.  (Note:  For AL-only drafters, stock up on A’s SPs.  McCarthy and Colon will both likely miss time.  I like Tom Milone and Tyson Ross at the right price).

Tim Stauffer (0% sliders, 1,774 pitch increase) – Similar to McCarthy.  Prized prospect derailed by injuries.  Throws a lot of pitches that turn into ground balls once hit (I wanted to write ‘throws a lot of ground balls’ but that could be confusing and our blog is incomprehensible enough.).  His wife’s not bad to look at.  Maybe it’s his previous ‘prospect’ status that hides the fact he’s not particularly good.  He’s had a lot of success with his fastball the past two years but it’s hard to put much faith in a 90 MPH fastball that clearly doesn’t lead to a lot of swing-and-misses (6.2 K/9) or comes with pinpoint control (2.6 BB/9).  He’s a Hodgepadre so he’s got some value for home starts but I wouldn’t consider him any better than, say, Clayton Richard.

Jordan Zimmermann (24% sliders, 2,464 pitch increase) – The other Jay-Z came back from Tommy John surgery to post solid if not spectacular numbers in 2011.  His ERA and WHIP (1.15) were helped by low HR and BABIP rates.  His control was very good (1.73 BB/9) so he still projects to be solid at WHIP.  I’m wary of the fact he threw 24% sliders (his most effective pitch) and still had a mediocre K-rate (6.9 K/9).  He’s probably going to go higher in drafts than I like.

Ervin Santana (38.4% sliders, 108 pitch decrease) – I think I put Ervin Santana on the list every other year.  From 2006-2010, Ervin Santana was the bizarro-Saberhagen – good in the even years, bad in the odd years.  He broke the streak in 2011.  I just can’t sign up for a pitcher that is so dependent on the slider.

Dan Haren (0% sliders, 25 pitch increase) – Might as well go out on a limb for my 10th choice.  There aren’t many pitchers as consistently great as Dan Haren – 7 years straight of 215+ IP, 4 straight years of a sub-3.50 xFIP, a sub 2 BB/9 rate in 4 of the past 6 years.  So why the concern?  Much like Roy Halladay, Dan Haren has morphed from throwing a standard pitch mix (Fastball/Slider/Curve/Split-Finger) to relying heavily on a cut fastball.  After ditching the slider for a cutter in 2009, his cutter rate has gone from 23% to 27% to 48%.  In 2011, his cutter was the 3rd most effective on a per-pitch basis and by far the most valuable in aggregate (wCT of 30.5 runs above average was double everyone except for Halladay’s 19.5 and Gavin Floyd’s 15.5).  In fact, Haren’s cutter was the most valuable pitch in aggregate of ANY pitch in 2011.  Unlike Roy Halladay, though, Haren doesn’t have velocity to spare.  His fastball velocity has slowly decreased from 91.9 MPH in 2005 to 90.0 MPH in 2011.  His cutter was at 85 MPH (Halladay’s at 90 MPH), making it one of the slowest amongst starting pitchers.  He had great success with it in 2011 at this velocity – but the pitch really has nowhere to go but down in 2012 and the rest of his stuff isn’t good enough to warrant his ADP if the cutter fails him.