Fantasy Baseball Advice

Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy, Punt Catcher

February 19, 2010 By: Grey Category: 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft, Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy 57 Comments →

No one carries two catchers in one catcher leagues.  If you do, you probably suffer from mushy brain.  So in 12 team leagues, you have 10 to 15 catchers at any time to choose from.  Hey, Miguel Olivo’s dressed like Johnny Weir and he’s hitting!  What do you know, Rod Barajas looks less Barajas-y!  Skinny Pudge is seeing fat pitches! Most catchers are passed around like blow at a Eric Dane/Rebecca Gayheart clam bake.  That, there, is reason enough to punt catcher.  There’s always available options on waivers.

The top 3 options at catcher last year, who still have eligibility this year, are Mauer, Martinez and McCann.  (Wieters might have to flip his W over to keep with the theme.)  After those guys we have Suzuki, Posada, Montero, A.J. and Napoli.  Three waiver wire pick-ups (Suzuki, Montero and A.J.), one guy who went in the last rounds of drafts (Posada) and one guy who I had to beg with people all year to hold onto (Napoli).  It’s like this every year with catchers.  If you hopped out of a DeLorean to tell me Ramon Hernandez, Ryan Doumit, Chris Iannetta, Jeff Clement and Jesus Flores ended up in the top 10 catchers in 2010, I’d say, “I told you Iannetta was a good bargain,” and I’d ask if I used, “The Resurrection of Jesus Flores” as a post title.  Catchers are unpredictable and bunched together in value.  Open up those little oddly proportioned arms and embrace that fact.

Finally, the last reason why you should punt catcher.  Bengie Molina.  He’s available in every draft.  Always is.  No one drafts this Flying Molina Brother until around the 15th round.  His stats last year were 52/20/80/.265.  Victor Martinez’s stats were 88/23/108/.303/1; he gets drafted 23rd overall, according to Mock Draft Central.  The difference between the two was 36/3/28, some average and a steal.  Flying whoop.  With Adrian Gonzalez, who gets drafted right around V-Mart’s spot, vs. Jorge Cantu, a 1st baseman around Bengie’s spot, the difference is 24 homers.  A shortstop comparison would be Rollins vs. Yunel.  A pitcher comparison would be F-Her vs. Ryan Dempster.  At catcher, you can get away with not having a top one and it won’t hurt your team as much.  No pepper games allowed, but you can always punt catcher.

Top 20 Catchers for 2010 Fantasy Baseball

January 13, 2010 By: Grey Category: 2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings 84 Comments →

Went over the top 20 and top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball.  Now, friends, it’s time for the top 20 catchers for 2010 fantasy baseball.  The top 20 catchers are the glass of warm milk right before you go to sleep.  Hey, I just drafted Jorge Posada!  Snooze.  I love Kurt Suzuki this year!  Yawn.  I don’t draft top catchers in one catcher leagues.  The fifth best catcher and the 15th best catcher are tomato, to-blah-to.  Because I ignore the top catchers doesn’t mean I’m starting the top 20 catcher list at number twenty-one (Barajas?  What’s Spanish for punt?  Punta?); some of you might want to know the top catchers.  You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make them draft Napoli.  In two catcher leagues, catchers are a little more valuable, but I’d still prefer to avoid them.  You can see other top 20 lists for 2010 fantasy baseball under 2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings.  Listed along with these catchers are my 2010 projections for each player and where the tiers begin and end.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 catchers for 2010 fantasy baseball:

1. Joe Mauer – This is the first tier.  This tier ends at V-Mart.  I call this tier, “Well, if you’re going to take a top catcher, here they are.”  Went over Mauer’s projections in my top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball.

2. Brian McCann – Everyone has Victor Martinez in this spot, but I’m not everyone.  If you want to read everyone, I’m sure you can find them.  In 2010, McCann is going to be 26 years old; V-Mart is 31.  In one hundred extra at-bats last year, V-Mart only hit 2 more homers.  Am I predicting Martinez runs over a fire hydrant while Jason Varitek chases him with golf clubs?  No, that’s not what I’m saying.  He’s ranked 3rd for me.  Since I’m not drafting either of these guys outside of 2 catcher leagues, it’s all academic.  I think this is the year McCann can blossom, Joey Lawrence.  2010 Projections:  80/28/105/.295/3

3. Victor Martinez – As mentioned above (you are reading every nook and cranny, right, muffin?), V-Mart’s still as productive as they come.  His move to the Sawx only helped his value.  Though I do think the Sawx hitters are a lot more intimidating in theory than reality.  “Oh, no, Kevin Youkilis.  I’m scared.”  “Watch out, here comes a Latin 34 David Ortiz and he’s wearing a Snuggie cause his old man bones are cold.”  Yeah, I don’t think this is your slightly older brother’s Red Sox who regales you with tales of 2004.  2010 Projections:  85/25/110/.300

4. Matt Wieters – This is a new tier.  This tier ends at Napoli.  This tier is called, “I like these guys and would draft them, but I’m not drafting them before 100th overall.”  If you were to extrapolate Wieters numbers from last year and if extrapolate were the right word, you’d have a catcher who hit about 16 homers.  As my Jewish grandmother used to say, big whoop.  His splits were encouraging and he’s as talented as the hype is making him out to be.  I could see drafting him then trading him early in the season.  I predict his value will be at its peak just before the season begins.  As you’ll see from my projections, he’ll be good, but, in the end, he’s still a catcher.  2010 Projections:  70/18/85/.305

5. Miguel Montero – Montero’s not quite the .294 hitter he was last year and his HR/FB was a bit high, so we shouldn’t expect 20-plus from him.  I’ve seen a lot of fantasy baseball ‘perts put Posada around this spot in their rankings.  What’s Posada, 63 years old?  Bleh.  If Posada hits 22 homers again, I’ll eat my proverbial hat with a side of proverbial crow.  If you’re taking a catcher, why not at least take one with some upside?  2010 Projections:  65/17/80/.280

6. Mike Napoli – I’m a big fan of Napoli.  Owned him in leagues for the last two years.  Now I’m worried the people in the back of the room have finally caught up to what he can provide and he’ll be overrated.  Or worse, he’ll disappoint just to spite the bandwagoners.  He does not play every game.  You must know that when you draft him.  If you own Napoli, you must follow the Ron Popeil school of catchers and set him and forget him.  2010 Projections:  60/19/70/.260/5

7. Geovany Soto – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Iannetta.  I call this tier, “Post-hype fliers.”  Now remember I’m telling you to punt catcher, so when you see Soto at seven that doesn’t mean grab him in the top 100.  When I say I like Soto this year, it doesn’t mean go crazy with yourself.  He’s still just a catcher.  The reason why I like him and Iannetta this year is because at a shallow position you’re doing yourself a disservice if you don’t go for an upside pick.  To read more about Geovany Soto fantasy sleeper stuff.  2010 Projections:  65/18/80/.280

8. Chris Iannetta – This is my totally out of left field pick at catcher.  There’s no reason why he should be ranked this high.  He doesn’t even have a starting job.  And just because I have him this high doesn’t mean you draft him before someone else takes Posada or Suzuki or Russell Martin.  Iannetta will be there later on in the draft.  He hit 16 homers last year in 289 ABs.  He also had to battle a slew of injuries and a bad line drive rate.  Hey, it’s not all peaches and cream with Iannetta.  Still worth the flier.  2010 Projections:  50/17/65/.265

9. Jorge Posada – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Pierzynski.  I call this tier, “I wouldn’t draft these guys with your team.”  Posada’s on a great team and he’s shown few signs of slowing down.  He ended up in this tier because he’s just too overrated.  Last year’s homers were fluky.  Yes, I know the new Yankee Stadium plays like a Taiwanese Little League park.  There’s no way Posada’s good for 400 ABs.  He’s old as dog balls.  I give him 17 homers and I’m in a generous mood.  2010 Projections:  50/17/75/.280

10. Russell Martin – Martin is the opposite of the Post-Hype Sleeper pick.  He is the Still Overrated Because He Plays For The Dodgers pick.  If he played for the Pirates, you wouldn’t even think about drafting him.  He was deriving some value from his speed, but Torre’s abused him worse than the late-90′s Yankees bullpen.  On Bill James’s Speed Score, where 5 is average, Martin’s 2006 was 5.4; 2007 was 5.2; 2008 was 3.9 and 2009 was 3.3.  Soon, he’s going to need Lasorda to pinch run for him.  2010 Projections:  70/10/60/.280/10

11. Bengie Molina – The chunkier one of The Flying Molina Brothers.  Bengie yawnstipates me.  Is he really that different than Napoli?  No, not really, but he’s got as much upside as a dead parrot.  As of right now, he’s a free agent so he may drop further in these rankings depending on where he signs.  2010 Projections:  50/16/65/.270

12. Kurt Suzuki – I look at Suzuki and see a poor man’s Russell Martin.  That’s not a compliment.  2010 Projections:  65/12/65/.270/6

13. Yadier Molina – I see Yadier and I see a poor man’s Kurt Suzuki.  Yes, there’s a pattern emerging and it’s not pretty.  2010 Projections:  40/7/55/.285/5

14. A.J. Pierzynski – Please don’t draft A.J. Pierzynski.  2010 Projections:  55/12/65/.280

15. Ryan Doumit – This is the last tier.  I call this tier, “You’re obviously in a deep league so take a flier on some upside.”  Dear (fill-in deity of choice), I’m writing to you regarding Ryan Doumit.  All I ask of You is Doumit gets 400 ABs.  If you can make that happen, I promise to no longer cancel my girlfriend’s HGTV DVR recordings and pretend like I had no idea what happened.  2010 Projections:  50/16/60/.280/3

16. Buster Posey – I went over Buster Posey in 250-ish words in the Buster Posey 2010 fantasy outlook post.  2010 Projections:  55/14/65/.290/3

17. Tyler Flowers/Alex Avila – They need a starting job.  I’m working without a net here in January, so whether you draft them or not will be a March call.  You may need to even pick them up off waivers at some point in the season.  This won’t be the last time I write about them in the preseason, definitely will need to update them in spring training.  Flowers has great upside long term, but I’d keep expectations in check for 2010.  Or just remember Wieters’s 2009.  Avila has less upside long term, but more potential for 2010.  In the end, he’s really just some power.  Neither will be ownable unless they’re starting and hot.  Flowers’s 2010 Projections:  40/10/50/.275; Avila’s 2010 Projections:  40/12/55/.250

18. Kelly Shoppach - With Shoppach’s trade to the Rays, he gets a small boost.  He’s still a liability on average.  Though last year’s .214 looks like the outlier.  He’s closer to a .250 hitter.  He’s also still a plus on power.  If he can get 400 ABs, he could challenge 20 homers.  2010 Projections for Shoppach:  55/16/65/.245

19. Jesus Flores – You already know the schmohawks like Varitek and Barajas, so I wanted to end this list with some exciting names.   But, um, there’s not that many exciting names to be had.  Thankfully, most of you are in 15 team leagues are smaller with one catcher, so you’ll never have to even get this low.  And that brings us to Jesus Effin’ Flores.  (I have no idea why, but I always want to give him the middle name “Effin’.”)  Anyhoo, J.E.F. had a stress fracture in his shoulder last year which killed him, then arthroscopic surgery on his elbow…  Well, it’s real late in the catchers, what do you want?  These guys are longshots.  And, yes, Ivan Rodriguez is blocking Flores a bit on playing time.  2010 Projections:  55/15/65/.250

20. Ramon Hernandez – Trying to find an exciting 20th catcher to put on this list was torture.  Looked at John Baker — bleh.  Looked at the portmanteau of Jarlor Saltygarden — bleck.  Looked at Nick Hundley… Nick Hundley?!  Okay, let’s face it.  Young catchers usually disappoint.  So that left me with Ramon Hernandez.  Exciting, huh?  A healthy Ramon Hernandez could easily get the same numbers as Jorge Posada for half the price.  Now THAT’S exciting!!!  No, actually it still isn’t.  Oh, well.  2010 Projections:  55/17/65/.265

After the top 20 catchers for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s a few names, but this one stands out:

Carlos Santana – Here’s the deal broken down to you so simply that Larry The Cable Guy could understand.  Even if a rookie catcher or upside pick doesn’t produce, you lose him in the first month of the season for someone else.  Random schmohawk off of waivers will give you the same production as at least half of the catchers above.  As for Oye Como Va, he may not start the year in the majors, but if he does there’s upside there.  Check the 2010 fantasy baseball Carlos Santana post for further encouragement.  2010 Projections:  60/13/75/.280

Hamilton Needs Rehab Again

June 03, 2009 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 232 Comments →

Josh Hamilton hits the DL and could be out for two months.  I’m not one to say I told you so, but… Man did I call this one!  Schadenfreude, snitches!  Sorry, I had to get that off my chest.  Really, no one could’ve saw this coming…. Except me!  Sorry, hiccup.  Of course, Hamilton’s injured.  He was abusing his body like Pookie for five years of his life.  Hey, great that he’s snuffed out the glue sniffing, but that takes a toll on your body.  Look at Courtney Love.  She’s like 40 years old and she looks older than the 75-year-old guy who turns on the lights for your bowling lane.  Then you throw in the fact Hamilton can’t take painkillers for fear that he might relapse so he’s stuck taking Airborne… Bleh!  All adds up to trouble.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Edinson Volquez – Yesterday, I said, “I wouldn’t be surprised if Volquez ends up back on the DL.” And that’s me quoting me breaking bad news to you again!  Turns out the finger numbness was elbow tenditis.  Pitchers with arm troubles yadda yadda yadda.  It ain’t good, guys and two girls that I know of that read Razzball.  (The Ladies love the ‘stache!)  Volquez is not a buy low.  I hope you all listened when I said not to draft him this year.  The Reds are spinning it so it sounds optimistic, saying he should be back in two weeks.  Um, wasn’t that what they said two weeks ago?

Zach Duke – 7 IP, 1 ER vs. the Mets.  Kinda surprised the Mets were able to find nine guys for Duke to face.

Milton Bradley – Fun for all ages strained his calf running to first.  Umpires around the league won’t have to look over their shoulder for the next few days.

Jesus Flores – Gonna be out for the season.  Bummer as the Flores Fan Club was just picking up steam with Randy Flores joining.

Troy Glaus – Swinging a bat next week.  Wasn’t he just about to get shutdown for the season?  Anything to get in the papers… in the papers.  If you have an open DL spot, I’d stash, but expect nothing.

Jordan Schafer – Was demoted for Gregor Blanco.  This one hurt me hard in my Razzball league.  Schafer was leading the world in sucking the first two months of the season.  I’m going to look at Chris Burke next.  Hopefully, Burke sees enough time to prove his invaluability.

David Murphy – 2-for-4, one steal.  I grabbed Murphy in one deep league to fill in while Beltran digs on the swine.  I don’t recommend Murphy for 12 team leagues yet, but deeper leagues can look at him.

Joakim Soria – Returns from the DL.  Not soon enough as Cruz began to sputter.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Left the game with a shoulder injury.  Get well soon, Asdrubal.  Your name makes me giggle.

Evan Longoria – Left the game with a tight hamstring. He’s day-to-day, and should be fine after Tony Parker draws him a nice hot bath.

Randy Wells – 7 IP, 1 ER, and a no-hitter into the bottom of the 7th.  I wonder if he’s related to Dan Haren.

Derrek Lee – HR yesterday. Now has his average up to .253.  I know, big whoop!  But, and I might be alone on this island, I think he’s got a month or two hot streak in him.  Not an insane .400/40 homer-type streak, but a hot one nevertheless.

Roy Halladay – 9 IP, 4 ER, 14 Ks and 133 pitches.  He looks like Howdy Doody, but he’s a machine.  I am Rowdy Halladowdy and I must kill Sarah Connor.

Joe Saunders – 5 1/3, 6 ER.  Saunders is the new blech.

Kelvim Escobar – Will start this Saturday vs. the Tigers.  I have him stashed in one league.  Probably be a game time decision on whether I start him.  It’s not a 12 team league.  I wouldn’t start him there.  Not worth the headache.  Just wait to see how he does the first time out.  Honestly, I don’t have high hopes for him to stay healthy, but he’s worth a flier.  The nice thing about Kelvim Escobar is that when he’s been healthy, he’s been effective.

Alex Rios – HR yesterday.  Now .471 over the last 7 with 2 HRs.  Hey, looks like a little razzing has got Rios running through it.

Rick Porcello – 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER and pulled after 84 pitches.  This doesn’t seem very Leylandian.  Was it bring your grandson to work day for the Tigers?

Matt Joyce – 3 homers now in 5 games.  What, Gabe Gross is going to steal time from him?  I now own him in three leagues.  I lost Gamel, a middle reliever schmohawk and Krispie, respectively.

Ben Zobrist – The verse is, “The Zo hit another homer.”  The refrain is, “Of course, he did.”

Kevin Slowey – He’s now 8-1 after a 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER performance.  Ladies and gentlemen of the comments, I’m just a simple fantasy baseball ‘pert.  I do not understand your ways.  Your world frightens and confuses me, especially when you ask me if you should trade away Slowey.  What I do know is Slowey’s been excellent.

Manny Parra – 4 IP, 10 ER.  I said to Sell him last Friday, so I’m absolved of this.  But in one deep league, where there’s few options, I had Pena, Parra, Peavy and Wolf go yesterday.   That’s 23 earned runs in 11 and two-thirds of an inning.  Instead of buying me a daiquiri, perhaps we should go for cyanide.

Jake Peavy – 1 IP, 4 ER. Had the flu.  A’la Ralph Fiennes, “I pardon you.”

Antonio Bastardo – 6 IP, 1 ER.  If only his first name was Ubaldo, then he’d officially have the most badass name in the history of the planet.  Solid major league debut, but it was against the Padres.  I wouldn’t start him against the Dodgers next time out, but I’d grab him in deep leagues to see how the Bastardo does.

David Hernandez – 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER vs. the Mariners and, no, Ichiro didn’t hit 5 solo shots.

Dexter Fowler – Not only has he stopped hitting, but he’s not stealing either.  He has a lot of promise in keepers, but in one year leagues you need to be looking elsewhere.

Miguel Tejada – 4-for-6 and leading the National League in batting.  Here’s a preview of Friday’s Buy/Sell:  Miguel Tejada – Sell.

Vin Mazzaro – 6 1/3 IP, 0 ER in his major league debut.  Mazzaro’s from Hackensack, En-Jay.  Fun fact:  That’s where Grey was born.  Betcha he knows where to get a great slice of pizza.  Okay, nostaglia out.  I wouldn’t pick Mazzaro on any team.

Randy Wolf – 6 IP, 5 ER.  He’s been too good up until this point, so I didn’t cut him in any league.  Though I felt like cutting myself.   RIP, Frankie from The Real World: San Diego.  You more compelling than Irene “I’m Crazy From Lyme’s Disease” any day.

Tony Pena – 2/3 IP, 4 ER.  I know Tony Pena.  You, friend, are not him.  Goodbye!

Dan Haren – 7 IP, 3 baserunners, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  After the game, Haren said, “That Tony Pena was an imposter.”

Chad Qualls – Was available last night for the save.  Unfortunately, there was no save.  I’m still looking at you, Pena.

Mark Reynolds – 0-for-4, 2 Ks.  Like clockwork, this guy gets to .260 then he tumbles to .230.  It’s the patented Reynolds Whap.

Raul Ibanez – 2 HRs yesterday.  He don’t need no stinkin’ Citizens Bank.

John Maine – Supposedly, a Mets TV crew member has swine flu and has infected everyone, except Mr. Met.  The Mets said Maine should be cured by Friday.  And, as we know, when you cure the swine, you get prosciutto.  Ah… That never gets old.  Never!  Now don’t forget to tip your waitresses.

Carlos Beltran – Also with Swine.  Now I know how the flappers felt when they thought they lost their shortstop, Arky Vaughan, with Polio in the summer of ’35.  Grey, see, I’m starting Arky, but Skeeter Newsome is on waivers and I’m in a ten way tie for first in homers with 3.  Should I make the switch, see?

On Holliday

April 30, 2009 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 92 Comments →

Hey, Matt Holliday finally hit a homer!  Please don’t tell me this is gonna be negative! Sorry, random italicized voice.  If you look at Holliday’s peripheral numbers you would see a guy that is more or less in line with his norms.  Now here’s the real kick in the nads.  He’s K’ing and walking less.  So what do I take away from that?  Trouble.  To me this means, Holliday is seeing more pitches to hit because AL pitchers haven’t been worried about him and rather than making them pay, Holliday’s putting the ball into play in the form of a flyout or groundout.  He’s hitting a bit fewer line drives than normal so that means his average may go up a bit, but I don’t think we see the .330 we were accustomed to in Colorado.  Now that he hit a homer, see if you can convince someone Holliday’s back from, uh, holiday.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Matt Garza – 7 2/3 IP, 2 baserunners.  Sonavabench!  This is the problem with Garza.  He instills so little confidence.  We’ll see what he does next time out.  I got suspicions.

Josh Beckett – 4 2/3 IP, 7 ER.  Even the AL pitchers I like give me agita.  This is why I own Wolf, Paulino and Gaudin and have cast aside Carmona and Davies.  I’m convinced, it’ll make for longer life expectancy.

Julian Tavarez – 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  Maybe he should’ve screamed nicely at the ball last night.

Joel Hanrahan – Quick actin’ Acta brought Hanrahanananan in to relieve Tavarez.  I’m close to calling uncle here.

Ryan Zimmerman – Another HR as he approaches his total from last year.  Well, not really but it feels that way.

Aramis Ramirez – Cubs said he will avoid the DL.  Hopefully, it’s that and not, he’ll avoid the DL for ten days then play one game then go on the DL.  Cause I’m not a fan of the 2nd option.

Jeff Weaver – 4 IP, 0 ER.  Guess what, Mom?  Your number one is back!  What?  You missed my game because you were resting up to watch Jered tomorrow?  Oh.  Yeah, I like his hair too.

Chris Volstad – 7 IP, 2 ER. Wasn’t an easy matchup, but pitched very well.  I’m convinced the Marlins have the best scouts in baseball.  They are so cheap… How cheap are they?  They got rid of Josh Willingham because he was too expensive. But they always seem to put a decent product on the field.

Sean Marshall – 7 IP, 1 ER.  I liked him coming into the year, but then when he didn’t pitch until the middle of the month I had to move on.  Now he’s at 19 IP and a 3.32 ERA with 15 Ks on the year.

Jorge Cantu – Another HR.  Where ya at, Nick Swisher?

Mike Napoli – Hit his 4th home run yesterday.  This is why you ignore playing time and just put him in your catcher’s slot.

Huston Street – He might already be back in the closer’s picture.  That picture obviously isn’t pretty, but SAGNOF.

John Buck – Two triples.  5 RBIs.  I haven’t seen that much hustling from a guy named Buck since Midnight Cowboy.

Jesus Flores – Delivered a teabagger right in Joe Thurston’s face.

Mark Teahen – 8 runs for the Royals and he goes 0-for-5 with 1 Run.  What a ticker tease!

Mitchell Boggs – Has there ever been a more lawyery sounding pitcher than Mitchell Boggs.  Mitchell Boggs – Attorney at Law.  I can hear dear Phil Hartman’s faux sincere tone being his voice.  In his 2nd game started, he fanned 9 Nationals.  Granted, the batting practice pitcher does that every day before the game but still.  His minor league record indicates 5th starter (on an MLB team not fantasy team) at least for this year but he’s worth stashing in an NL-only team.

Dallas Braden – 5 “scoreless” innings. Quotes because Sweeney robbed Kinsler of a three-run homer.

Max Scherzer – You can’t K as many guys as him and Kershaw and not have breakout potential.

Chris Carpenter – May be back by late-May as he ran without pain.  May! (Rule of 3′s)

Eric Chavez – Headed to the DL.  Looks like someone was jealous of all the attention Nomar was getting.

Juan Cruz – Save as he fills in for Soria.  Soria’s supposed to come back, but that doesn’t mean he will.  Remember these clubs play fast and loose with the truth.

Chorizo – Still hasn’t won a race in Milwaukee this year.  Something smells fishy!  Wait, that’s the seafood paella!

BABIPs Don’t Lie

April 30, 2009 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sell 224 Comments →

BABIP is Batting Average for Balls In Play.  And they do lie, sometimes.  But who can resist a title alluding to a Shakira song?  Not me!  BABIP is a quick way to know how much luck a hitter is having.  There’s more to it, but for the purposes of this, above .300 BABIP for a hitter and it means the hitter could hit a bloop single just over the pitcher’s head with a drawn in infield.  Below .200 and the hitter could hit a line drive into the Grand Canyon and it would get caught by Alice on the back of a mule.  Then there’s HR/FB%, which is a quick way to know if a hitter is hitting more home runs than what makes sense for that player’s amount of fly balls.  Then there’s LD%, which is the percentage of hits that are line drives.  Line drives are usually a sign of solid contact aka a player is hitting the ball hard.  Finally, K% or the percentage a hitter Ks.  So why all the fancy acronyms?  Well, the other day a FOR (Friend of Razzball), jsp2014 threw this nugget into the comments:

“I was curious about who’s been lucky and unlucky so far for some buy low/sell high ideas, so I did a little research on Fangraphs.  I figured this could be useful to others as well:

Min. 50 PAs

Lowest BABIP (look for the AVG to go up): Zaun, Byrnes, Berkman (.171), Rollins (.172), Encarnacion (.175), McCann (.176), Tulo (.176), Alex Gonzalez, Hardy (.178), Quentin (.184), Phillips (.184)

Highest BABIP (due to come back down to earth): F.Lewis (.543), Youk (.490), Flores, Votto (.469), Beltran (.464), B.anderson, Markakis (.441), Asdrubal, Abreu (.426), F.Sanchez, B.Roberts (.415)

Highest HR/FB (expect the HR pace to slow for most of these): Young (42%), Adrian Gonzalez (35%; career 16.5%), Quentin (32%; 21% last year), C.Davis (31%; 21% last year), Thome (31%; career 28%), Inge (30%; career 10%), Reynolds (29%; career 18%), Dye, Pena, Jeter, Overbay, Branyan, Fukudome, Uggla, Tulo

Highest LD% (unsustainable but means they’ve made a lot of solid contact): N.Johnson, Salty, Feliz, Fields, Rolen, Blum, Teahen, Fukudome, Bartlett, Asdrubal, Castillo, Dukes, Youk, Bourn, Andy LaRoche

Highest K-Rate: C.Davis (49%!), Maybin (42), Thome (38), Dickerson (38), Upton (38), Schafer (37), Salty (37), Flores (37), F.Lewis (36), Reynolds (36), Fielder (35), Fields (34), Upton (33)”

That’s a great comment right there, and I appreciate it.  Now what can we gleam from this?

Fred Lewis – With his power and speed Crapolanco-like, his average is due to regress.  Might want to get out while the gettin’ is good.

Lance Berkman – He’s been the anti-Fred Lewis.  All power, no average.  That will get better.

Kevin Youkilis – While he will continue to be solid, he won’t be this solid.

Adrian Gonzalez – He always seems to start the year on fire and cool off as the summer heats up (Maybe he needs a trade to San Francisco?  It’s cold there in the summer.).  This year probably won’t be any different.

Brandon Inge – Because he’s eligible at catcher, he’s not a straight sell candidate but the homers will eventually dry up.

Troy Tulowitzki – As a career .312 BABIP hitter, he’s due to explode at some point soon.  Buy into the correction.

Cameron Maybin – His K% shows he’s struggling.  Yeah, no kidding.

Jimmy Rollins – Maybe luck has knocked the wheels off of J-Roll in the early going.

Geovany Soto – Just missed the cutoff of 50 ABs, but he has a .161 BABIP.  Shoulder might not be the only thing holding him back.

Jesus Flores – Don’t believe his early season flash, the pan’s coming soon.