Fantasy Baseball Advice

Yesterday, Rafael Furcal went 2-for-4 with a steal.  I thought Furcal was overvalued in the preseason because I thought he was more fragile than Alanis after a breakup.  Well, he’s actually played the whole season, albeit terribly.  He’s been on base over 200 times.  He has 10 steals with 6 times caught.  Who gave him Kirk Gibson’s fist-pumping legs for five months?  But, and here’s the head turner, he has 4 steals in the last seven games.  Not sure what happened to Furcal the first 95% of the season, 10 steals used to be a good month for him.  Maybe he’s a Latin 31.  But never us mind, he’s hot right now.  If he was dropped anywhere, he’s currently hitting over .500 in the last week with 4 steals.  Go fur it!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Bobby Jenks – I might’ve misspoke when I said Linebrink would be the closer.  Grey wrong?  Get outta here this instant! Yeah, I know, random italicized voice, the guy who traded for Jose Reyes in one league in May being wrong is crazy.  I originally said Linebrink because of how Ozzie had used him recently.  But Linebrink has been awful.  No disputing that.  Then again, I don’t think Matt Thornton’s going to suddenly become Franklin Morales of last week.  Either way, I don’t think this is a great situation for saves.  Okay, correction done.

Jermaine Dye – 2 HRs yesterday as he came down with a case of Furcalitis, a disease that boosts one’s stats when games no longer matter.

Michael Aubrey – HR yesterday.  I also really love him on Real Estate Intervention.

Matt Wieters – Hit another homer yesterday.  Member all that (lack of) work he did over the summer to make him underrated next year?  Yeah, he’s been outta his mind recently.  I knew it would happen eventually, I was kinda hoping eventually was next April.

Travis Snider – HR yesterday.  4 for his last 7, but it was against Orioles pitching and, as I tell my girlfriend, beware the small sample size.

Francisco Liriano – Should start against the Royals on Sunday.  He’ll get to face Greinke.  Sometimes it just ain’t your year.

Carlos Guillen – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs with 2 HRs yesterday.  With the way he’s played since returning from injury, he should sit out two months every year.  Oh, wait, he does.

Chad Billingsley – 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 Ks vs. the Nats.  I think they call this a tune-up for the playoffs.  Considering how broken down he’s been lately, they would be right.

Ryan Zimmerman – Hit his 31st homer yesterday and so did Miguel Cabrera.  I mention that for symmetry and because, other than the average, Zimmerman’s been just as valuable.

Drew Stubbs – 2-for-6, 2 steals.  What, no homers?

Homer Bailey – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 0 Ks.  Blech, but he got the win.  I’m gonna have to get over not liking him because I think I’ll probably own him in some leagues next year.

Jonathan Sanchez – 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 Ks.  I pegged him as a borderline starter to take a gamble on for yesterday, along with Homer Bailey.

Randy Choate – Got the save yesterday.  So that’s who the closer is!  Choate came in to get two lefties and a righty (which turned into two righties and a lefty – Wakamatsu is a magician!)

Wade Davis – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  He gets Baltimore and supposedly the last start of the year vs. the Yankees, which will be the B lineup.  And there is no A lineup on the Orioles.

Gaby Sanchez – HR yesterday.  (S)He’s a decent name to look at in deep NL-Only keepers.  Keepers only though, (s)he’s not playing much at all right now.

Tim Hudson – 6 IP, 2 ER, 11 baserunners as he tied his owners to the WHIPping post.  As someone who watched 75% of this game, Hudson looked terrible.  Got very lucky, even with Kelly Johnson mucking up a double play ball.

Chris Narveson – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 10 Ks.  Anyone who’s read this blog for even a short period of time knows I got excited when I saw 10 Ks in under 6 innings.  Unfortunately, he gets the Rockies in Coors next time out so there’s nothing to see here.

Bud Norris – 6 IP, 0 ER.  Nice, but in the same boat as Narveson with a tough next matchup (@Philly).

Julio Borbon – Stole his 17th base yesterday in only 119 ABs.  I have a feeling someone’s value is going to be inflated next year.

Brad Lidge – 2/3 IP, 2 ER and his 11th blown save.  Imagine if Scioscia managed the Phillies.  Lidge would be in the Phanatic costume doing belly flops during rain delays.

Rich Harden – Now the Cubs are saying he may get shut down.  Yeah, I said that last week.  Read the blog, doode!

Milton Bradley – Has a new game, Pin The Blame On The Cubbies.

Chad Qualls is probably done for the season.  The closer shituation isn’t going to be pretty in Arizona, unfortunately.  We’re looking at a closerousel.  I’d list the candidates in this order:  Juan Gutierrez, Clay Zavada, Esmerling Vasquez, Daniel Schlereth and Blaine Boyer.  Reading those names again, I vomited into a trash bin and the ghost of Hoyt Wilhelm materialized and said in a British accent, “Be careful, Grey.  Gutierrez is iffy at best and Zavada can’t see past his mustache when he pitches from the stretch.”  Because times are lean for saves in a few of my leagues, I’ll cop to grabbing the first two guys.  Careful about going with any of them if you don’t need saves.  But really, who doesn’t need saves?  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Krispie Young – In America, everyone gets a 2nd chance — John Travolta, Michael Vick and the police officer from The Village People.  Maybe people get 2nd chances in Kathmandu.  I don’t know.  I’ve never heard anyone say, “Everyone gets a 2nd chance in Kathmandu.”  Krispie returns to the majors and should be play nearly every day.  What can we expect?  Nothing.  How’s that optimism?  But what can he do?  Well, he’s been hot in his recent Triple-A stint and he had a decent 2nd half last year.  Absolute ceiling of expectations would be 4 homers and 4 steals in September.  It’s not going to save your team, but it could help.

Scott Kazmir – In case you don’t have cable in your dungeon, Kazmir was traded to the Angels.  Maybe going out to Dave & Buster’s after every game, rather than Hooters will help focus Spazmir, but I have my doubts.  He’s been no joy to own thus far this year, and I’m skeptical that he suddenly will turn things around.

Andy Sonnanstine – He’ll get the call this Tuesday to replace Kazmir.  And, as you know, Tuesday is the new hump day.

Jake Peavy – His elbow had a “recurrence of tightness.”  Sounds like a bad Ashton Kutcher movie.  Oh, wait, they’re all bad.  Hey, look at me, I Twitter!  I’m Ashton Kutcher!  I’m in movies opposite Anne Heche! Sorry, I don’t like Kutcher.  So, Peavy’s having problems with his elbow… Well, I didn’t expect him to save many teams in September, but I did think he could be helpful.  Now, not so sure.  If you have no room on your DL, I’d consider dropping him.

Akinori Iwamura – HR yesterday.  Sitting under your MI trellis with Everth Cabrera, Gordon Beckham and Alexei Ramirez and Akinori walks up with a nice glass of iced tea.  Do you ask someone to get up so Aki can sit down?  Right now, Iwamura’s hitting at the bottom of the lineup, but that could change if he hits.  But really the best thing you can hope for from him is Runs and only if he’s at the top of the lineup.

Joba Chamberlain – 3 IP, 2 ER.  The Yankees said they were abandoning Joba Rules (skipping him).  But it seems like they’re just altering the rules to include starting him but then pulling him early in games (after 35 pitches on Sunday).  That does no one any good in fantasy.  Punt!

Jermaine Dye – HR yesterday as he went 2-for-11 over the weekend with one RBI.  I’m still fine with abandoning him.  Don’t look back in anger, Liam.

Matt Kemp – HR yesterday and recently he’s been batting in the top half of the lineup.  A commenter asked me if I would draft Sizemore or Kemp first in 2010.  At first I said Sizemore, but it’s very close and I could see February Grey changing his mind on that.  Kemp really has been that great this year.

Bronson Arroyo – 7 1/3 IP, 2 ER.  His run of quality starts continues.  I don’t play for Wins because they’re hard to predict, but I will say Arroyo has been miserably unlucky… Or maybe the Reds have just been miserably bad.  Either way, Arroyo’s not a great bet for wins, but he’s been solid in ratios.

Sean West – 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  Has a respectable ERA (4.22) but a terrible K/BB ratio (47/35).  He gets the Nationals and the Mets in his next two starts.  To some that may sound like the cat’s meow and the cat’s pajamas.  Well, I’m not a cat person.

Adrian Gonzalez – Sat out two straight days with a bicep(s?) injury.  He pinch hit though on Sunday so it shouldn’t be too serious.  I did enjoy seeing Oscar Salazar batting third yesterday.  He’s the 1st baseman; first basemen bat 3rd!  Bonkers, I tell ya.  Bonkers…  Oh, but it did work as Salazar went 3-for-4.  Inconceivable!

Feliz Pie – Has 3 homers in the last four games while batting near .400 over the last week.  That’s some tasty pee-ay.

Paul Byrd – 6 IP, 6 baserunners, 0 ER as he got the start for the Sawx.  I wouldn’t pick him up with your team.

Garrett Jones – Hit his 16th homer yesterday.  In other news, are you kidding me?!

Julio Borbon – Only got on base once and he stole a base.  Can someone conference call Alcides Escobar and Borbon so we can get Alcides running?  I’ll moderate/translate.  Anyone know how to say SAGNOF in Spanish?

Carlos Zambrano – 3 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 11 baserunners.  This ain’t exactly like predicting in 1975 that OJ Simpson will one day kill his wife, but end up in prison for trying to steal his own memorabilia, but when you can’t get out of the 4th inning vs. the Mets something is not right.

Kendry Morales – 2-for-4 with his 30th homer yesterday.  He hits .311 on the year as he nears 100 RBIs.  Still, I get the feeling he might be underrated next year.

Zach Greinke – 1 hitter vs. the Mariners.  Hopefully, the BBWAA can skim their eyes to the right of his Win total.

Russell Branyan – Headed to the DL.  But, wait, who’s going to give me my 1-for-12 with a homer every third game?  Later, Branyan.  Way to regress to your subpar norm in the 2nd half.

Carlos Gonzalez – Returned with a stolen base.  Hopefully, CarGo can pick up where he left off before his steak and ail.

Before we get into today’s Buy/Sell, I want to clear something up.  Last week someone commented that my Buy/Sell post only had Buy guys in it for very deep leagues.  This is sorta true.  With only a little over a month left of the season, just about every league’s trade deadline has past.  So I could tell you to buy Manny Ramirez, but how are you going to do that?  I do believe in the last month of the season, there’s something else you should be doing.  Or actually not doing.  You should no longer be waiting around for production.  Jermaine Dye’s put up fine stats this year.  You guys going to get a room in October and talk about his great May?  If Rajai Davis is on your waivers and you need steals and don’t need power, forget Dye’s previous production and go for the here and now.  You’re up against the clock, fantasy baseballers (<–my Mom’s term).  You only have so much time to make this shizz happen.  If it’s going to happen.  This is more or less for one year leagues.  In keepers, you need to be prudent about who you can drop.  Oh, and bee-tee-dubya, Jermaine Dye was dropped to fifth in the order and has one homer in the past month while batting .187.  Cut the umbilical, doode.  You guys are done.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell for this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Jack Cust – Wait, I know a better title for this post, “How To Bore The Crap Out Of Your Readers With Boring Ass Names?” Random italicized voice, you seem like you have a bit of a chip on your shoulders.  No, not at all. Oh, okay.  So Cust may be boring, but when do I tell you to pick up Cust?  Maybe twice a year?  This is one of those times.  (Sidenote:  When I was seven years old, I kept bugging my grandparents to take me to see the hookers in New York because I wanted to see if they really had hooks.  So we go down a street in pre-Giuliani New York filled with prostitutes.  Of course, my grandparents, being the first generation of ridiculous — me being the 3rd, pull up to a prostitute to ask her to show me her hook.  As soon as the window goes down, the prostitute says to my grandfather regarding my grandmother, “Dump the b**ch and make the switch.” Ah, yes, memories.)  To tie it back in, dump Dye and switch to Cust.

Julio Borbon/Chris Davis – Hank Blalock’s loss is Chris Davis and Julio Borbon’s gain.  For Borbon, SAGNOF!  For Davis, pray for less Ks and more power.

Jonathan Sanchez – If you throw out May and June when Sanchez was dirty, and only count the other months when he was filthy, he has a sub-3 ERA.

Scott Podsednik – Never been a big fan of Podsednik’s (though his wife is hot as dog balls), but he’s been terrific just about the whole season.  He’s giving you a poor man’s Victorino right now.  I will call you Feign Victorino.

John Smoltz – Wasn’t that long ago I was pretty down on Smoltz.  Hey, it’s a fantasy baseball ‘pert’s prerogative to change his mind.  Smoltz has a real nice schedule ahead and supposedly Carpenter spotted how he was tipping his pitches.

Leo Nunez – He’s been getting saves for 2 months now.  He’s owned in only 19% of ESPN leagues.  Finally, we figure out how many ESPN leagues have been abandoned.

Eric Young Jr. – SAGNOF!

Tim Hudson – Will return on Monday.  I went over him in this morning’s post.  Go ahead and scroll down.  I’ll wait.  *taps finger, sips water, burps*  Hey, there you are!  Okay, now lower your eyes to the next line.  Lower… Lower… You’re still reading this line.

J.P. Wheelerfour – The Rays have very little room for error.  If Howell continues to blow games, someone will be called in to replace him.  Unfortunately, it’s not clear cut who that somebody will be.

Ryan Roberts – Besides sounding like someone who got their start in the talkies, Roberts has been on fire recently.  Batting near .450 in the last week.

Michael Aubrey – Those Orioles always needing an Aubrey!  Michael Aubrey’s been diddling himself for years in the minors, but the Orioles are giving him time vs. righties.  I wouldn’t pick him up in mixed leagues, but in AL-Only leagues I’d take a flier.

Brandon Allen – Brandon Allen’s giving you his guarantee or your money back!!!  I like Allen better than Aubrey by a lot, but I’m still not crazy for him in mixed leagues.  I also went over him in the September call ups post-a-ma-whoosies.

SELL

Johan Santana – If he’s still owned in your league, your league has an absentee owner.  Send that absentee owner an email telling them they suck.

Charlie Haeger – I hate knuckleballers.  The pitch is too unpredictable for even the pitcher.  At any moment, he could give you a roofie shellacking.  So I won’t own Haeger. But he does have a decent matchup next.  If you have room for risk, do what you do.

Chipper Jones – 420 at-bats.  What is the type of at-bats Adam Jones has right after smoking a bowl? No, good guess though.  It’s the over/under for Chipper this year.  He’s at 381.  So do you think he can hit 15 homers in the next 40 ABs that he’ll spread out over the course of a month?  Or do you think you can find someone more valuable on waivers?  This has a lot to do with your league, but Chipper’s struggling with a wrist injury and could be on the DL by September 15th.  So it might be time to lose the glass Chipper in ten team leagues.

Chien-Ming Wang – the two-time 19 game winner – is pitching historically bad.  How bad?  Some TV highlight show quoted some statistical service that the 15 earned runs he’s given up in the past 2 starts are the most ever for a Yankee pitcher’s first two starts of the year.  For fantasy purposes, he’s more toxic than Chinese air, waterways, and land combined.  As for Ted Lilly, you have to respect a guy who can overcome the ignominy of being traded for Hideki Irabu and Jeff Weaver.  He’s been a very underrated late game starter for the past two years with the Cubs. Today, he went 6 and 2/3, giving up only one hit.  Not to take anything away from Lilly, but the conditions were lousy at Wrigley for hitters.  If Ubaldo didn’t walk 6 batters in less than 4 innings, the Cubs wouldn’t have scored as many runs either.  We think Lilly’s risky for this year as he’s been relying a bit too much on breaking pitches.  But it’s not as if the Cubs training staff hasn’t had experience with sore-armed pitchers (see Prior, Wood, Harden)… Oh, and Wang?  We’re very worried about him.  Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Edinson Volquez – I feel bad saying I told you so when someone’s not going well, but I told you so… Actually, that didn’t feel that bad.  Schadenfreude, you make me feel good!

Fausto Carmona – 5 IP, 4 ER.  Okay, I didn’t say to stay away from this schmohawk and it feels awful.  Damn you, karma!

Orlando Hudson – Orlando is living it up in LA.  Disneyworld meet Disneyland!  O-Dog used up his month’s offense production in one day as he hit for the cycle.  O-Dog’s about as hot as they come these last few days.  Is he worth owning?  Sure, I suppose.  He’s a 10/10 hitter with a decent average.  There’s a place for that but I’d prefer a 2nd baseman that could get you 25-40 steals.  One thing I will say is Hudson seems like he’s running more in the early going with 3 steals already in the first week.  But his career high in steals is 10.

Andre Ethier – 2 HRs yesterday.  Nice!  Now twist an ankle or something so Kemp could slowly start working his way up the lineup.  Aw, you know I’m just playin’, Ethier.  I love ya! (Actually, I don’t really, but I’m semi-rambling.)

Zach Duke – Shutout? Shuddup!  The Astros are not a very good offensive team. (Which seems like a complaint for them for the last so many years.  Maybe they might want to think about upgrading that.  Just a thought!)  Duke’s fine for an NL-Only league flier.  In mixed leagues, it’s Zach Puke.

Cristian Guzman – My Fantasy Razzball team (and really it’s all about me) took some hits (literally!) yesterday as Guzman went 5-for-5 then limped off the field.  He surprised last year by maintaining a .300 average and staying relatively healthy after failing to do either in his last years with Minnesota.  I was banking on a regression but not on the health part… There is nothing more frustrating then losing a guy on a Monday in a weekly league.  I should’ve just left Belliard in there… Wait, is that my inner monologue?  My bad.

Jesse Litsch – Left with forearm tightness. Another guy I had on my team that I want to suck.  I don’t think highly of Litsch, but would’ve been nice to see him stay healthy.  He’ll be out a few starts is my guess.

Mike Pelfrey – 5 IP, 5 ER.  I’m not defending Pelfrey because I don’t like him this year, but he did give up some bleeders and bloops.  Cust kayin’.

Jon Lester – 11 runs in 2 starts.  He was a risky pitcher too (in addition to Pelfrey).

Zach Greinke – 2-0, no earned runs thus far.  Because our dipolma from the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston says we have to report when we’re wrong 17% of the time, Greinke was a risky pitcher too.  Maybe trade him if you think we might still be right.

Matt Holliday – 3-for-4 with 2 RBIs.  Batting between Giambi and Garciaparra is really paying off! *sarcasm off*

B.J. Upton – Matt Joyce sent down as The Beej returned to action with a two steal night.  Good to have the Bossman back in town.

Carlos Pena – HR and 6 RBIs. *Random observation that is neither funny nor that enlightening alert* Pena reminds me of Delgado.

Ryan Franklin – First Save last night.  He will get more.  As far back as March 17th, I’ve been saying Franklin will get saves.  I’m not going to link to all the times I said it.  Just search in the search-a-ma-jig on the left.

Travis Snider – 2 HRs.  Still like Lind better, but I also like anyone who’s hitting two home runs in a game.  Even you, Ethier!

Chad Billingsley – 7 IP, 1 ER, 11 Ks.  Since last summer, I’ve said he’s headed for the 2009 NL Cy Young.  The Verducci guy clinked the armor, but I’m still holding tight.

Milton Bradley – Out a few days with a right groin strain.  How appropriate since he’s a jerkoff.

Justin Upton – O-for-the season.  The ‘Backs have too many options for him to continue on the path of ugly.  He’s going to be a good one, but it may not be the first half of the year.  Or this year at all.  Color me worried.

Jermaine Dye/Paul Konerko – Back to back 300th HRs.  According to the Elias Sports Bureau, this was the first time two players hit back to back 300th homers.  Actually, they didn’t say that… Well, they might’ve.  I have no idea.  Another thing possibly heard today in the Elias Sports Bureau office, in Accounting, Julio said, “Who took my pen for the third time this month?  Which is a new record!”

DeWayne Wise – Separated shoulder and out 6 weeks. This also really hurt my Fantasy Razzball team.  Wise looked like he was headed for one of the all-time worst years ever if Ozzie would’ve continued to play him.  And that’s a small “if,” because of course Ozzie was playing him.  Alas…  This opens up the centerfield job for the Jerry Owens promotion (SAGNOF, but he’s a truly crappy player) or Brian Anderson (poor average, some pop, not much to see here either).  This could also mean Ozzie moves Alexei Ramirez up the order.  Honestly, Alexei hasn’t done much to deserve it so that could mean Ozzie does move him up.  Oh, who are we fooling?  Ozzie’s going to continue to plug Wise into the top of the order, DL be damned!

Jed Lowrie – To the 15-Day DL.  Oh, well.  He’s done.  Feel free to cut him loose.  Probably the best thing that could’ve happened so you can move on from him sooner vs. later.  (BTW, Sooner vs. Later battled to a draw last time out in the octagon.)

After the top 20 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s so many more outfielders to rank I need to turn this sucka to 40.  This is after already going over all of our other 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  Since this is such a deep position, this list of 2009 outfielders could go to 60.  Crazy, right?  That’s not crazy as in crazy, but crazy as in, “Huh.  Um.  Okay.”  When I’m done with all of the top 20 and top 40 lists, I’m going to do a top 100 and top 300 overall.  That’s right, ya’ll; wonderful just gave birth to awesome.  Now before we get into our top 40 outfielder list, here’s our 2009 Fantasy Baseball Player Rater and our list of all the players with multiple position eligibility.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball:

21. Corey Hart – This is a continuation of the last tier in the top 20 outfielders post that started at Rios.  This tier ends here.  Flameout, that’s what Hart was towards the end of 2008 and his approach at the plate says this is exactly what we should be expecting.  Hart is susceptible to occasional droughts of unusability (SAT Word!), but he has a hair of upside so he ended up in this tier.  2009 Projections:  75/22/80/.275/20

22. Vladimir Guerrero -  This is a new tier.  This tier goes all the way down to Double I.  I call this tier, “You know what you’re getting and don’t expect any upside in this tier.  They are what they are.”   Sadly, Vladdy got old real fast.  He went from a 40/20 Clemente to a 27/5 Dawson in a two year time period.  2009 Projections:  85/27/100/.310/5

23. Adam Dunn -  40 home runs.  Every year.   Like clockwork.  A big, roly-poly clock with a lack of motivation according to J.P. Ricciardi.  Dunn’s average was a bit lower than it should’ve been for his career BABIP, but that’s like saying your crap smells a bit worse when you eat Thai food.  2009 Projections:  80/40/85/.245/5

24. Magglio Ordonez – I haven’t liked Mags since ‘02.  I’m just not a fan of guys that max out under 30 HRs and have no speed.  There’s some argument to made that he’s better than Vladdy at this point, but I’m not here to make arguments for guys I don’t like.   2009 Projections:  85/24/105/.310/3

25. Bobby Abreu – At some point Abreu’s going to be a 15/15 guy with the downside of 12/12.  You really don’t want to be the last one to leave and shut off the lights on the Abreu 20/20 party.  2009 Projections:  110/17/100/.300/20

26. Johnny Damon – He got a bit lucky last year with his numbers.  He’s not quite a .300 hitter.  From there, you could just read what I wrote for Abreu then subtract a bit of power and it’s Damon.  He’s a 17/20 guy just as easily as he’s a 12/17 guy or as I like to call him, Johnny DeJesus.  2009 Projections:  105/15/70/.285/20

27. Jermaine Dye – Dye is Vladdy minus thirty points on average and a bit more power.  There’s a time and a fantasy team for Dye.  But what fun is a 2nd outfielder with no upside? Not a not a not a, not a damn thing.   What’s Duke Ellington without that swing?  2009 Projections:  80/30/90/.275/3

28. Raul Ibanez – A big part of me wanted to put Ibanez in the below tier with Burrell, but his move to the Phillies lineup and that ballpark has me a bit more excited, i.e., he was yawnstipating and now he’s only midly so.  2009 Projections:  85/25/110/.290/3

29. Vernon Wells – If owning Vernon Wells causes you to have an erection for longer than 15 minutes, you might want to seek a doctor.  2009 Projections:  85/24/95/.280/7

30. Torii Hunter – His HRs peaked at 31 in ‘06 and there’s no reason to think he’s going to get above that number.  He’s Abreu with less stability on average and I’s instead of a Y.  2009 Projections:  85/24/85/.275/17

31. Jay Bruce – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Pence.  This tier I like to call, “They might not do anything but strikeout a lot, but they’re worth the risk.”  When Jay Bruce was called up to the majors, he did a Triple Lindy into the hearts of fantasy owners.  Then people called him a nipple-ringed bust.  Well, don’t let last year scare you away from Jay Bruce in 2009.  2009 Projections:  85/30/90/.280/10

32. Ryan Ludwick – There was some discussion on the Josh Hamilton in 2009 post about Ludwick’s potential.  Rudy said this, “(Ludwick’s) K rate is 27% which is well above (Carlos) Quentin (16%) and (Carlos) Lee (11%). Ludwick’s .299 last year was a fluke (.349 BABIP) – with his swing and miss rate, he’s a better bet for .250 than .300.”  And that’s me quoting Rudy!   2009 Projections:  85/30/100/.275/3

33. Krispie Young – Unlike the Diamondbacks last year, you don’t want Krispie on the same team as Dunn, but as a cheap 25/20 guy Krispie’s got value.   2009 Projections:  80/25/80/.245/20

34. Brad Hawpe – Hawpe’s splits in 2008 against lefties weren’t as dramatic as they were in the past, but even if you want to slot him in only against righties in daily leagues, he’s worth the draft pick.  He’s nothing flashy, but he’s solid without any severe downside.  2009 Projections:  70/30/95/.280

35. Hunter Pence – Leaving the plate from April through June of last year, Pence says, “Make adjustments, stupid!”  In the 2nd half of the season, Pence says, “Now you’re cooking with gas.”  I’m not sure if he is completely done struggling yet, but if Pence was completely out of the woods, would it make a sound?  Yup, a pretty big one.  2009 Projections:  85/28/95/.275/10

36. Pat Burrell – Here we are in another tier.  This tier goes down to Drew.  I call this tier, “You know exactly what you’re getting, and you’re getting less than the last tier where you knew exactly what you were getting.”  You can see why I wanted to place Ibanez in this tier.  Anyway… With Pat Burrell, you get 30 HRs and a .250 average.  2009 Projections:  70/30/85/.250

37. Milton Bradley – With Milton Bradley, you’re getting a headcase that is not going to give you more than 400 ABs.  The great thing about Bradley going the distance (more or less) last year was we were able to see what he’s capable of.  He’s capable of 22 HRs and 5 steals. Um, okay.  2009 Projections:  60/18/75/.290/4

38. J.D. Drew – J.D. Drew, Nomar Garciaparra and Rickie Weeks get onto your crosscountry flight, do you get off?  2009 Projections:  80/22/75/.280/5

39. Carlos Gomez -  Now for the last tier of the top 40 outfielders for 2009.  I call this last tier, “Probably not the 39th thru 41nd most valuable outfielders, but I’m just pointing out some upside guys.”  There’s a chance for 10 HRs and 40 steals with CarGo.  Granted, his average might be tremendously bleh.  I wasn’t crazy about CarGo last year, and I’m not completely sold on him yet, but a sleeper is a sleeper is a sleeper.  I could have wrote Denard Span here instead of Gomez, but he’s not as exciting to me.   2009 Projections:  90/10/60/.260/40

40. Lastings Milledge – At some point early on last year, I said get rid of Milledge.  He’s not ready yet.  He needs more time to season and absorb some of his juices.  Of course, Bowden left him on the grill for those first four months, and, by August, Milledge started to finally cook.  2009 Projections:  75/18/90/.280/20

After the top 40 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but here’s two that stand out:

Cameron Maybin – I already went over a Maybin 2009 post so I’m not going to belabor the point.  Let me just say, SAGNOF.  Okay, I’ll say one more thing, Ellsbury in 2008.  2009 Projections:  85/5/50/.280/40

Delmon Young – He has only 26 HRs in over 1300 ABs.  Well, this is supposed to be in favor of him so ignore that.  Young is a hot head that hasn’t shown an ounce of potential.  Oops, that’s not positive either.  Um, he’s still only 23.  There, that’s positive!  And he can throw a bat at an ump harder than anyone else.  Shoot, there I go again.  2009 Projections:  70/15/85/.295/15