Fantasy Baseball Advice

Another week has come and gone my friends, well, I’m assuming we are friends. Hopefully fake baseball is still enjoyable to you, even if your team is in the crapper. It’s not too late, in fact it’s still way early. Trust in the pitcher is the biggest thing that makes a start a must start. Listen, I can’t put it to you any simpler than this. Pitchers are held to a different standard than hitters. They can get a hitter out 7 times out of 10 and they look terrible. But if they get them out 8 out of 10, we salute them, throw a parade and erect sandcastles in there honor. It’s a fine line between being great and being crappy. I have said this before and I still use it for “entertainment value” when determining if I am going to start a guy on a certain day. Go to your trusty odds maker, whether it be the newspaper, website or Uncle Geno. The people who have the most to lose on this know what they’re doing. That’s why there are no casinos named after charitable organizations. So, in times of despair, don’t fret, you are surrounded by information that will guide you in the right direction. Unfortunately, when the pitcher sucks and should have been great, there is nothing we can do but take it on the chin. Enjoy another week of fantasy double dipping and streaming. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups may change.)

ONE START OPTIONS

5/3
Sam Lecure vs. Hou – Figueroa
5/4
Clayton Richard vs. Pit – Correia
Jake Arrieta @ KC – Davies
Fausto Carmona @ Oak – Cahill
5/5
Bruce Chen vs. Bal – Tillman
Joel Pineiro @ Bos – Lackey
5/6
Ian Kennedy @ SD – Stauffer
Philip Humber @ Sea – Fister
Jason Hammel @ SF – Cain
5/7
Charlie Morton vs. Hou – Norris
Jon Garland @ NYM – Young

TWO START OPTIONS

Josh Tomlin (@Oak vs. Ross, @Ana vs. Haren) Finally getting use out of that magic trick game he got as a kid. BAA is tiny .186, there is always a but though, a low K/9 and is second in LOB%. I believe Napoleon Dynamite said it best, “Lucky.”

Brandon McCarthy (Tex vs. Holland, @KC vs. Hochevar) Already a 1 WAR pitcher, there are only 15 in all of baseball. Numbers are saying that he should be even better than he has already shown. Best showing for a McCarthy since Weekend at Bernie’s.

Mike Leake (Hou vs. Happ, @CHC vs. Russell) Five-fingered Mike. Cueto’s return is coming most likely in the Cubs series. Homer not too long after. Tough decisions for Dusty. I rank ‘em Wood, Leake and then Bailey, until he proves he can’t get hurt walking and chewing gum at same time.

Erik Bedard (Tex vs. Ogando, CHW vs. Buehrle) I’m not a buyer here. Some K potential but injuries and Seattle’s offensive woes make me wonder when the last time an Erik actually did something good, not so fast there Poncherello.

Chris Volstad (@StL vs. Lohse, Was vs. Gorzellany) Don’t know why I like him, maybe it’s the height thing. Gets me easily confused with Josh. Medium K potential, but based on match-ups this week me likey a little extra.

Tyson Ross (Cle vs. Tomlin, @KC vs. Francis) A’s pitchers are hot commodities this week. Decent numbers in minors for K’s. Control will be a problem. Just getting stretched out, 2-3 more starts will put him in the “Why didn’t I add him before he took off?” category.

Livan Hernandez (Phi vs. Oswalt, @Fla vs. Sanchez) The epitome of fishing for wins. Offers zero K’s but keeps trucking along giving you 6 innings of 3 run ball. About as cool for fantasy rosters as Jorts.

Esmil Rogers (@Ari vs. Saunders, @SF vs. Vogelsong) Looked up his family bio and has a brother named Egrimac. Walks make me unhappy, looking to avenge only bad start of the season against SF. Compare his numbers to Ubaldo, yeah, he isn’t that bad now.

Jeremy Guthrie (@CHW vs. Buehrle, TB vs. Shields) Hard luck guy, Dustin Moseley even feels bad. Take away the start vs. Cle and he has allowed 3 runs in 27 innings. Always liked Stanford alums, maybe it’s because of the LSJUMB.

Wade Davis (Tor vs. Reyes, @Bal vs. Bergesen) Poor K/BB ratio, still sporting an ERA in the high 2’s. Seems to be pitching better than ancillary numbers would suggest. Is still way under owned and looked at, first it was Hellickson and his boyish charm and now it’s Shields who likes to do everything by himself.

Chris Narveson, his name makes me think of the insurance guy from Groundhog Day.  Am I right or am I right-right?  His name also would sound good recited by Chris Cornell.  Chris Narveson, won’t you come and wash away the rain?  Won’t you come.  Won’t you come.  Narveson was in my top 80 starters.  Let’s see what I said there, “Hmm… I don’t remember and I’m too lazy to click on the link to the actual blurb.  No one actually reads stuff I quote from myself so I’m gonna pretend I just explained Narveson to a T.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Yesterday, he had the line of 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  He’s also 29 years old, so I’d preach a bit of caution.  He’s good for Ks (7+ K/9), dangerous on walks and around a 4.00 ERA starter in the NL.  So that’s good, meh, serviceable.  In any league deeper than 12 team, he should be owned.  In 12 team leagues, I’d take the flyer where I had room.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Rickie Weeks – 2-for-4 with his 3rd homer in 4 games.  On one hand, I’d sell him.  On the other hand, who are you selling him for?  On my third lesser known hand, I’m wearing a puppet while talking out of the corner of my mouth.

Brandon Beachy – 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks.  It’s full steam ahead.  I.e., pick him up, snitches!

Craig Kimbrel – 1 IP, 3 Ks and the save.  Rawr!  That is all.

Rick Porcello – 5 IP, 5 ER.  Porcello dropped a mushroom cloud.  I own Porcello in my Fantasy Razzball league.  You know, the league where you want the worst players.  That’s what I think of him.  I do hear Porcello is a fungi!

Miguel Cabrera – 0-for-4, played yesterday but he was throwing up during the game.  Liquor before beer, man.  C’mon!

Will Rhymes – 2-for-3, and his first major league steal.  He can steal 25 of them if he plays in 130+ games.  SAGNOF!  And he appreciates the finer things in life.

Andrew McCutchen – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer as The Dread Pirate returned to the lineup.  This season is when McCutchen goes 20/40 and becomes a top outfielder.

Neil Walker – 3-for-4, 2 RBIs and hitting .412.  For what it’s Wuertz, Walker is the player who ended up on the most teams owned by Rudy and me.

Joel Hanrahan – Member when you wouldn’t draft him last week because he wasn’t good in Spring Training?  Yeah, Hanrahanananananan has 3 saves and a zero ERA.

Charlie Morton – 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 2 Ks.  He was in last week’s Buy and I do like him, but he also gave up 5 walks in this game.  Wildly effective can quickly become “Holy eff in the effhole what is Morton doing to my ratios?”

Alfonso Soriano – 2-for-3 with his 2nd homer in two days.  Guys and three girl readers, he’s been hitting well in April for a few years now.  Don’t act too school for cool about picking him up.

Randy Wells – 6 IP, 1 ER, 10 baserunners, 6 Ks.  I actually liked him last year and he abused my trust pretty badly, but there’s a heart under this rugged, mustachioed exterior that has learned how to forgive.  I’d give Wells a chance in 14+ team leagues, but his WHIP tends to be high even though he doesn’t walk a whole lot of hitters.

Willie Bloomquist – Is Stephen Drew getting Pipp’d out?  1 HR and 3 SB already for Bloomquist.  Definitely unexpected from the Arizona bench in which the only thing supreme about it is it sounds like the Supreme Court (Bloomquist, Roberts — can they trade for Clete Thomas, Adam Kennedy or Jon Jay?).  This is probably self-evident but don’t touch Bloomquist unless you’re using a 12-team NL pole.

Milton Bradley – 3-for-4 and hitting third.  Sure, playing with Milton Bradley is unsafe for ages 12 and over, but batting third adds fantasy value.

Erik Bedard – 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Best thing I can say about this start is he walked away without injury.

Nelson Cruz – 2-for-3 and his 4th homer.  He’s going 40/20 if he can stay healthy, but that if has its own postal code.

Elvis Andrus – 1-for-4 and Elvis left the building for the first time since Michael Jackson died.  Yo, legends mourn legends.  If Andrus goes 10/40 this year, you’re gonna appreciate me ranking him about fifty spots before all other ‘perts.  Yeah, I love the Rangers offense.  Deal with it.

Derek Holland – 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks.  What I don’t love is Ranger pitchers (except Neftali — I ain’t mad at cha!).  Holland’s a decent enough flyer in deep leagues, but I’d be careful.

Jorge Posada – 1-for-3 with his third homer.  Posada’s agent, “I told you the DH was a good move!”

Ivan Nova – 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Whatevs, I wouldn’t touch him.

Jake Arrieta – 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 3 Ks.  For now, I wouldn’t touch Arrieta outside of AL-Only leagues and, even there, I probably wouldn’t own him.  In 100 1/3 IP last year, he had a 4.66 K/9.  That was 11th worst in the league.  It can get better, but I’d prefer to see it happen before I go near him.

Jeremy Guthrie – Has pneumonia.  The p is silent as in pwhatever.

Ryan Theriot – 1-for-5 with his first steal.  Has made 2 errors this season and scouts aren’t enamored with his defense.  I never thought I’d say this but Brendan Ryan had a lot of fantasy baseball value last season.  For STL pitchers that is.  Carpenter, Garcia, and Westbrook are all ground ball pitchers.  Downgrading on SS defense would seemingly be the last thing you’d want to do.  Oh well, at least us fantasy baseballers get to enjoy Theriot’s mediocre offense.

Matt Holliday – He’s saying that he doesn’t need a DL trip and can return in a week.  He’s kinda sexy and I kinda love him.  Get well soon, Mr. Holliday!  That’s me filling out the card for the edible arrangement I’m sending him.  Don’t judge!

Ryan Raburn isn’t just some old fashioned name that sounds like a matinee idol from the 40′s.  Grandpa, tell me again about the time you were working as an extra in Hollywood and you stole Angela Lansbury away from Ryan Raburn.  Well, it all started late one night at Musso & Frank’s.  We were all pickled pretty good on Cuba Libres, remember this was before the House Committee on Un-American Activities banned them… So, Raburn hit 2 homers yesterday and is now batting over .400 in the last week and 8 homers in the month of August.  He’s starting every day since the Tigers were hit by injuries and the power is for real.  In his last full year of ABs in the minors, he hit 20 homers.  Last year, 16 homers in 113 games.  The average could bottom out, but with 2nd base eligibility there’s no reason not to take a flier on him.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Rick Porcello – 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Has now given up only 4 hits in his last 14 innings.  Okay, I don’t fully trust him, his Ks are just blahtastic.  Neverthehoo!  You can’t deny the type of groove he’s in right now and he gets the Royals next time out.

Jose Valverde – 1 IP, 3 ER.  Kazaam!

Brandon Morrow – After his next start vs. the Yankees, he’ll be shut down.  I blame the Mariners for their inability to settle on a role for Morrow over the previous few years.  He had the best K/9 for starters in the major leagues this year and will almost certainly be coveted by February Grey next year.

Mike Napoli – Was claimed off waivers by the Red Sox.  A deal is supposed to be unlikely.  According to sources, Scioscia’s asking for a family-size bag of Sun Chips.  Sawx are offering a single serving bag.

Brian Fuentes – Traded to the Twins.  Gardenhire went on the record saying that Capps will remain the closer.  Then he broke the record by bringing in Fuentes to close Saturday’s game.  I wouldn’t read too into though.  It was a one-out save vs. a lefty.  Fuentes may see a few saves against lefty-heavy ninth inning lineups, but Capps should get the majority of the saves going forward.

Fernando Rodney – Nothing like getting the closer job on a team that’s selling off its pieces.  Rodney gets no respect, I tell ya.  He’s a Brain Freeze waiting to happen, but, if you need saves, SAGNOF!

Edinson Volquez – Headed to the bullpen as the Reds realized what fantasy owners concluded a few starts ago, Volquez is too unpredictable to start at this stage of the year.  Dusty will have to find someone else to play Paper, Rock, Ulnar Collateral Ligament Reconstruction Surgery Scissors with.

Matt Lindstrom – Back problems haven’t subsided and Lyon could remain the closer for the rest of the year.  Rawr!

Bud Norris – 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 11 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Oops upside your head.

Roger Bernadina – 2-for-4 yesterday.  3 homers and 3 steals in his last ten games.  His track record says the speed is there.  (pun point!)  The power hasn’t show up much in his previous years.  Right now, I’d grab him in deep leagues just hoping his hot streak continues.  I wouldn’t bank on it though.

Jay Bruce – 4 homers in his last 3 games.  If I would’ve known all he needed to get hot was for me to tell you to drop him, I would’ve punted him in March.  I never doubted the talent; it was the slump that looked like it was taking Extenze that worried me.  There’s no reason not to give him a 2nd chance if he’s out there on waivers.

Ryan Braun – 4-for-4 with 19th homer.  Cool, now repeat this game every day for the next month and we’ll be cool with each other.

Alcides Escobar – 1-for-4 with his 10th steal.  He’s been on and off one of my teams so many times the elastic is completely shot.  I’m warning you now, I will like him again next year.  There’s 40 steals in those gams.

Trevor Hoffman – Recorded his 8th save.  Axford had pitched the last two games, so I wouldn’t say anything’s changed other than Hoffman’s a few saves away from retirement.

Evan Meek – Was hit with a comebacker and could be out for a few days.  That’s the good news for Hanarahananananan.  He could see some time in the ninth.  And there’s the bad news.

Manny Ramirez – Looks headed to the White Sox.  I can’t tell you how excited I am for this move.  Because, well, I’m not excited.  I don’t own him anywhere.  If I did own him, I’d be slightly more excited.  At least, he should actually play now.  If you got the best possible month from Manny, you’re still not going to get anything you couldn’t grab off waivers in all but the deepest leagues.  Maybe 7 homers and a .350 average in a best case scenario.  More realistically, a few homers and a .300.

Colby Lewis – 5 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 11 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Hasn’t won in over a month and his ERA is up to 3.61.  The K-rate is still purdy, so the Colby cheese hasn’t lost its bite.

Gio Gonzalez – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Was a home schooler for the early months of the season, but his ERA in August is under 2 and is now startable every time out.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – 2-for-5, hit his 2nd homer in three games.  Kouz is one of those players I halfheartedly mention that I can’t even bear to own myself.  And that’s me undercutting what was already a lukewarm recommendation!

Ivan Nova – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 7 Ks.  As defined by Oxford English Dictionary, a Nova is a star that suddenly becomes much brighter and then gradually returns to its original brightness over a period of weeks.  As defined by Chevy Pimpalas dot com, the Nova is freakin’ awesome.

Marcus Thames – Was in Friday’s Buy, has 5 homers in his last 5 games.  Like Chiquita Banana’s boyfriend, he hits them in bunches.

Jeremy Guthrie – 8 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 5 Ks vs. the Napoli-less Angels.  Yeah, the “Cutting off Napoli to spite the team” strategy is working good.  Anything that gets Jeff Mathis’ .201, 3 homer bat into the lineup.  Maybe Scioscia should skip Jered Weaver’s turn in the rotation too, so Kazmir can get an extra start.  He’s managing the team like he’s got a deal with that lady from Major League.

Koji Uehara – Got his fourth save yesterday as Buck Showalter gave him the confirmation name, “Closer.”

Carlos Gonzalez – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs and two homers.  Aim to please, that’s CarGo’s MotTo.

Stephen Drew – 4-for-5 with his 3rd homer this week.  Yup.

Leo Nunez – 2/3 IP, 3 ER and his 8th blown save.  He needs a lozenge he’s coughed up so many games recently.  He’s surrendered a run in each of his last four starts and 7 of his last ten.  I’d be shocked if the Marlins continue to roll him out there.  I made a speculative grab of Clay Hensley in two leagues.  Jose Veras could also be an option.  Or it may be the dreaded closer by committee.  Don’t these people realize nothing’s better done by committee?  Except jerk seasoning, which is flavor by committee.

Hanley Ramirez – Left yesterday’s game with a bout of lightheadeness.  This is following a severe case of redheadness.  Hanley, you think you can get into the National Association for the Advancement of Gingy People that easily?  The NAAGP has a bumper sticker for you, “Feckless without freckles.”

Baseball is still going, I thought it was over since football has started. Soccer that is. Yeah, I know American Soccer is unwatchable, so I get my binoculars out and peer across the pond. I am sure I am alone in my passion as not many people play fantasy baseball and love the EPL. Oh well, editorial over. So what do we have for you this week? Injured starters return only to be most likely banished back, pennant races getting interesting and I saw Pirahna 3-D, yikes. It’s like watching a spring break snuff film. Hmm, it actually sounds good when I put it that way.  Well, enjoy the fantasy week that will be, as I am off to enjoy a case of High Life and a few games of Madden.

R.A. Dickey (Fla vs. Johnson) (Hou vs. Norris)
Makes playing like Dickey a positive. Low numbers everywhere. Would be top 10 in ERA if he qualified. Is the NL version of Jason Vargas statistically, if that’s a compliment.

Fausto Carmona (Oak vs. Gonzalez) (KC vs. Chen)
Cleveland is only one game under .500 post AS break. Yeah, I had to look that up.

Jeremy Guthrie (@ChW vs. Floyd) (@Ana vs. Santana)
Struggles against lefties with a .264 BAA. ERA a creep over a deuce in last 7 starts. Change of leagues and he is a 15 game winner.

Kyle Lohse (@ Pit vs. Maholm) (@Was vs. Lannan)
I keep thinking something is going to click with him, a la 2008. Starting to get re-stretched out, takes 3-4 starts before we realize he is recycling.

John Lannan (ChC vs. Zambrano) (StL vs. Lohse)
Lannan is hot.  Wait, did I just say that? Yeah, I think I did.  2 ER or less in 4 starts. Still suffers from “letting to many guys get on base” disease.

Dave Bush (LA vs. Kuroda) (Pit vs. Ohlendorf)
One good start and one bad start, he is consistent. Consistently crappy. It sets up to be a bomb versus the Dodgers. I believe it was Dudley Dawson that said it best, “We’ve got Bush.”

Jason Hammel (Atl vs. Hudson) (LA vs. Kuroda)
My mom collects his figurines and she doesn’t even like baseball. ERA 2 runs lower at home. 6+ innings in 9 out of 10, and I love me some groundball 2 start pitchers.

Joe Blanton (Hou vs. Myers) (@Sd vs. Garland)
Hates the first inning when he has a 8.83 ERA, the rest of game 3.36. Should start Lidge and have Blanton get the last 24 out save.

Rich Harden (Min vs. Liriano) (Oak vs. Braden)
Gauze pads and some “ouchy” ointment will be needed. Is the walking baseball analogy:  bike with no seat, Ferrari stuck in traffic. Okay, I’m done. Keep a medic on alert.

Bud Norris (@Phi vs. Hamels) (@ NyM vs. Dickey)
I told you. Kid is turning into a top 40 SP going into next year. I am occasionally right once and a while. Wish my arms were longer, I’m tired of patting my shoulder.

We are finally legal with the fantasy season turning 18 this week. Nice. I was trying to think of the best baseball movie ever this week. I asked several people in my fantasy leagues what they thought. Typical answers — the ones that we all say should be the best were mentioned. I ask you this:  how many of them make you laugh like Naked Gun?  Granted, not a movie about baseball, but if you haven’t seen it in awhile I definitely recommend it. If you haven’t noticed, I’m avoiding the topic of trade deadline because no matter what you read on the subject, it turns out to be fraudulent. So take a look at your team, ‘cause that’s who you’re stuck with, barring league settings, of course. The waiver wire is your last resort to load up from week to week. Sometimes names are unimpressive but in H2H — it’s quantity that matters. Some matchups will vary, due to the Anaheim starting rotation situation and trades deadline.  Here’s this week’s two start pitchers for fantasy baseball:

Brian Duensing (@Tb vs. Price) (@ Cle vs. Tomlin)
Finally stretched out, well earned promotion from the pen. Could be worse: you could have drafted Slowey and Baker and thought “Yeah I’m set at SP.” Wrong. Tiny ERA, lots of hits, no K’s. Good gamble for a team poised to make a run.

Freddy Garcia (@ Det vs. Bonderman) (@ Bal vs. Guthrie)
Still miss the Soul Glo look from Freddy. Has a sneaky 10-4 record. Is a WHIP nightmare and lack of K’s make me sad. Any matchup that starts with Balt and ends with imore is a keeper.

Travis Wood (@ Pit vs. Ohlendorf) (@ ChC vs. TBA)
Continues to deepen the future of Cincy’s rotation. I think he’s doing it with mirrors and will eventually get figured out. Gets a start on the Alleghany, and TBA. Sneaky K numbers.

Jason Vargas (Tex vs. Lewis) (KC vs. Bannister)
A month ago he was 6-2. Prolly a sit in first start. Could be wearing down:  high inning total for career is 140 and he is at 127. Get what you can before the wheels fall off the Vargas.

Jeremy Guthrie (Ana vs. Bell) (ChW vs. Garcia)
Any other team, he is a .500 pitcher. No worries, Buck will turn around Charm City. Anaheim rotation is a M.A.S.H. unit and Hawkeye Pierce is getting loose. ERA half a run better at home. He may be starting the “Andrew Luck for Heisman” campaign early.

Vicente Padilla (SD vs. Latos) (Was vs. Olsen)
Another guy who likes his own bed:  ERA is halved at the Ravine. 4-1 K/BB is muy bueno. Ultra effective vs. Lefties. SD only good bat is, you guessed it — lefty.

Clayton Richard (@ LA vs. Kuroda) (@ Ari vs. Lopez)
Previous win vs. LA… too bad it doesn’t count for this week. D-Backs are horrid. The fathers are really still in first- I lost a bet ‘cause of that. Another guy with an innings alert. Still chugging with a K/Inning.

Livan Hernandez (@Ari vs. Lopez) (@ LA vs. Kuroda)
Guy throws pitches in the 50’s, and he doesn’t throw knuckleballs or throw it underhanded. Impossible you say. 3.22 ERA on the year. Even Pete Townsend “can’t explain.“

Rick Porcello (ChW vs. Buehrle) (Ana vs. Bell)
Is really motivated by the start of the second season of his home state’s “Jersey Shore.” Patience, kid, only turns 22 in December. 3 consecutive decent starts. A good buy low guy for the Detroit stretch run.

Joe Saunders (Was vs. Olsen) (SD vs. Latos)
Penthouse to the outhouse. ‘Zona is going to be worse than Baltimore the rest of the year, book it. Switch of leagues usually makes you look fantastic for about a minute in a half.  Didn’t even happen for Saunders.