Fantasy Baseball Advice

So it comes to this, the final countdown.  Cue Lou Gramm and let that blaze through your head as you listen to that classic from Foreigner.  If you read this in tune with that song, it’s almost like the Dark Side of the Moon/Wizard of Oz experience.  You have to read fast though.   I can’t believe the season is basically over as it seemed to fly by and I guess I missed all the fun.  This week is extended by 3 additional days so basically every pitcher you can think of goes twice during championship week. So there are tons of options and I just pulled my top 15 favorites based on pitching match-up favorability and my general guess work.  So as you read this, pitchers are in order of how they will appear in their first start of the week. Starting with 9/19. Check back mid-week as we will add a contribution for the last couple of games.  Good luck until Thursday.  Questions, comments or rants are greatly accepted.  (Pitchers and matchups will almost certainly occur this week due to teams clinching and whatnot.)

Kevin Millwood (SD vs. Luebke, @Hou vs. Norris) Was the starting pitching version of a pogo stick this year.  Found decent starts finally with his 4th team.  Last 5 starts ERA under 3.20.  Team scores runs, prolly better to score chicks, just my humble opine.

Mike Minor (@Fla vs. Nolasco, @Was vs. Wang) I was trying to get him to jump out of the birthday cake for Grey.  Unfortunately, he has a scheduling conflict.  Jim J. Bullock it is.   Sorry, homey.  Previous 3 starts 3.24 ERA, with some decent strikeout potential.

Jeremy Guthrie (@Bos vs. Lackey, @Det vs. Verlander) Last 5 starts, 2-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 30 K’s.  If his peak value wasn’t before the season started, it may be now when you need him the most. Maybe he was all on board the “Suck for Luck” campaign and forgot that he only plays football.

Jason Vargas (Min vs. Hendriks, Oak vs. McCarthy) Needs the Fister treatment.  No, not that kind of stuff.  Sicko.  A change of scenery makes his numbers look prettier.   Gets beat up once and awhile, but are we scared of the Twins and A’s offensive juggernauts?

Randy Wells (Mil vs. Marcum, @SD vs. Latos) Last 10 starts 6-1 with a 3.15 ERA only downfall is just 38 K’s.  Has pitched a lot better than a lot of sexier names that you prolly already roster over the last 30 days.  Just the facts.  And then Thursday happened and made what I just said irrelevant.

Bud Norris (@Cin vs. Bailey, Col vs. Millwood) I know Morrow gets more love but is 2 more K/9 more important than an uptick of 1.6 in ERA?  Not so much that it would lead to an almost double ownership.  I guess if I played for a loser I would go unnoticed too.

Chris Narveson (@CHC vs. Garza, Pit vs. Ohlendorf)  Starting, bullpen, back to starting.  Brewers will prolly have clinched by his first start.  When you dig deep, is it really horrible to have a pitcher from a winning team as your option?

Dana Eveland (SF vs. Vogelsong, @Ari vs. Hudson)  I could be wrong, but didn’t he star as MacGyver’s bald sidekick?  Getting by on looks, charm and a spoonful of who the heck is this guy? Tiny numbers in first 2 starts, you can roll the dice when I’m done playing click-clack.

Drew Pomeranz (@Hou vs. Myers,  @SF vs. Bumgarner) Features a plus fastball and curve, changeup needs work.  Reminds me a lot of Joe Saunders.  2 decent matchups as he fights for a rotation spot and fantasy formidability next year.

Henderson Alvarez (Ana vs. Santana, @CHW vs. Buehrle) A 3 ERA and a small WHIP from a groundball pitcher is almost as good as Reading Rainbow being back on the air.  Oh, it is.  Righteous.  It’s in a book, so take a look. Sorry got caught up in LeVar Burton’s goodness.

Philip Humber (Cle vs. Gomez, Tor vs. McGowan) Last 2 starts since coming off DL have been better than I expected.  That much needed time off looks like it refueled him for the faux baseball playoffs.

Jake Westbrook (NYM vs. Capuano, @Hou vs. Sosa)  Consistently is a 6 inning 3 ER pitcher, to hope for anything better would be like leaving Santa vegetables instead of cookies and then wonder why all your presents are broken.

Eric Surkamp (@Ari vs. Collmenter, Col vs. White) Man, that Barry Zito contract looks awesome right now.  Low K potential and lack of team run support hurts him some.  Any time I don’t have support I get all saggy, that ad brought to you by Spanx.

Felipe Paulino (@CHW vs. Stewart,  @Min vs. Diamond) We come for the Ks, that is all.  Now dance, monkey, as I turn this organ grinder.  In retrospect, it would be awesome if that monkey could do The Dougie.

Brett Myers (Col vs. Pomeranz, STL vs. Carpenter) Really useful right now, until he starts dating your sister and you’re like, “Wait a second,  I don’t want you dating my sister.”  1 ER in each of his last 4 appearances.  Would have liked to see him dealt to a contender, but there’s always next year.

J.J. Hardy has been hotter than a Latin woman frying chorizo in the Sahara desert.  Why she is in the Sahara is fodder for a J.J. Abrams movie.  In 2008, Hardy hit 24 homers and .283 in his fourth big league season.  Then poof.  Nothing.  He vanished.  Or did he?  It’s the real Hardy Boy mystery and, if he did it in a small bucolic town, it could be read as voiceover by Keith Morrison on Dateline.  He’s still only 28 years old and capable of 20+ homers over the course of the season.  Over the last ten games alone, 3 home runs and hitting .395.  Next week, the moon!  And Abrams might have a thing to say about why the moon too.  If Hardy’s on waivers, I’d absolutely grab him to see if he can continue to hit and stay healthy.  J.J.’s dyn-o-mite!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Tommy Hanson – Scratched from his Friday start with a sore shoulder.  Hanson’s value goes Mmmmplop.  Hopefully, he just needs a few days, but a shoulder problem… Well, just keep telling yourself he’s gonna be all right.

Randall Delgado – Will take Hanson’s Friday start.  Where did I just read about him?  Oh, I know!  Here, two days ago.  Stephen just dropped his Randall Delgado fantasy on you.  He wrote it while sitting outside of Diane Lane’s house.  Creepy!

Brandon Beachy – Had a solid rehab start.  Will have one more next week and then rejoin the Braves rotation.  And not too soon after Minor’s start last night.

Chipper Jones – Glass Chipper left yesterday’s game with a groin strain.  Vegas pays out a nickel for every thousand dollars bet that Jones would get injured.

Jordan Schafer – 5-for-6, 3 runs and a mention in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  It’s Friday, ya’ll!

Jeremy Guthrie – Left the start yesterday when his back went all spastic.  That sounds like an adjective my elementary school teachers used to describe me.

Zach Stewart – 7 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Was called up to take Kyle Drabek’s spot in the rotation.  Stewart’s numbers this year in the minor leagues leave something to be desired.  Something like a better K-rate.  He’s a passable flyer in an AL-Only league and not kosher in mixed leagues, i.e., pass-over-able.

Jon Rauch – 0 IP, 2 ER.  The Blue Jays will be holding auditions for closer at the West Covina Mall this Saturday from 10 to 2.

Adam Lind – 2-for-4 and his 14th home run.  I drink Lind’s milkshake!

Tsuyoshi Nishioka – Returned from the DL and went 1-for-4 in the three hole.  I had a friend who’s found great enjoyment in the three hole.  Personally, I don’t– Wait, what?  Oh, Nishioka.  He’ll be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  I look forward to you skimming it on your mobile phone while you go to the bathroom.

Michael Cuddyer – 2-for-4 with his 10th home run.  On Wednesday, he stole three bases.  On Tuesday, he hit another home run.  Finally, he’s hitting .643 in the last week.  For those who have him at 2nd base, you did well and I’m a little jealous.  Are you happy now?

Ryan Raburn – 1-for-3 with his 6th home run.  Why’d he hit a home run?  Because I finally dropped him in one league.  Alcides Escobar, you better keep stealing bases.

Grady Sizemore – 0-for-4.  I try not to talk about the same players every day because then it gets boring for both of us.  I’ve now gone over a month since my last Sizemore mention.  On May 12th, I told you to sell him.  Since then, he has 1 home run, zero steals and is batting .203.  I don’t think selling is an option anymore.  Now you have to start thinking about cutting bait.

Jayson Werth – 2nd game in a row with a home run.  Wanna have your mind blown?  Okay:  34/10/26/.240/9; 25/10/27/.292/2.  The 1st one is marginally better because of the steals, but when you consider draft cost… Well, the first one is Werth; the second one is Laynce Nix.  Of course, Espinosa has been better than both of them at middle infield, but no one wants to own him.

Brian Gordon – 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 10 baserunners, 3 Ks. Started in place of Colon, he’s a herbathrowdite that was recently in the Phillies minor league system.  He had Bugs Bunny-type numbers this year in Triple-A — 56:7 K:BB, 0.83 WHIP in 55 1/3 IP.  Those are the kind of numbers that give hope to Brian Anderson and Tony Pena Jr. with their position reassignment.  I wouldn’t touch Gordon in mixed leagues yet, but I would look at him in AL-Only leagues.  Maybe one day ESPN can do a movie on him starring Chaz Bono.

Chris Snyder – His wife was attacked in a traffic dispute.  In a related story, Scott Cousins’ wife ran over a pedestrian.

Clay Buchholz – Left his start yesterday with lower back stiffness, which is less awkward than lower front stiffness.

Jake Peavy – Looked great in his rehab start.  Better bring him up immediately before he gets injured again.

Zack Greinke – 5 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 10 baserunners, 10 Ks.  His ERA is now up to 5.23.  BUY!  Seriously, don’t walk, run and buy him.  His K:BB is 70:9.  That’s a thing of beauty.  That’s in 53 1/3 IP.  Schnikes!  I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a 2.50 ERA the rest of the way.  Here’s Grey, here’s Grey going on a limb.  Snap or no snap?  No snap!

Cliff Lee – 9 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Superb Lee.

Matt Garza – 6 IP, 5 ER and the conshellation win.  Any time you wanna pitch as well as your peripherals, Garza, feel free!

Gio Gonzalez – 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 10 Ks.  Continues to be a must start at home and must take ulcer medicine because of his control issues.

Jose Lopez – 0-for-3.  Getting some starts at 3B for the Marlins as they long for the Jorge Cantu era.  They’ve even asked if he’ll change his name to Jose Cantulopez and answer to the nickname of “El Melon.”

Moneyball – I know, big fantasy news here!  Still, I’m giddy for this movie.  How could you not be?  It’s a movie that hinges on Scott Hatteberg.  A couple of thoughts on the trailer (which I’ve posted below).  Would’ve loved to been a fly on the wall for this pre-production conversation:  “We need an actor that can convincingly tell Brad Pitt he can’t pay retail prices for players?”  “Well, he’s gotta be nebbishy… Paul Giamatti?”  “Too old.  Too goy.”  “Hey, how about Jonah Hill?”  “Brilliant!”  Also, can’t wait for this scene in the movie:  “Who’s that sidearmin’ fella?”  “The name is Bradford.  Chad Bradford.”  Finally, this is the kind of movie that will have end titles about what happened after the movie ends.  Hope it reads something like this, “The A’s never did win a World Series and all of their relative success was due in large part to Eric Chavez, Miguel Tejada and Jason Giambi — three juice heads.”

Wilson Betemit – When Wilson Betemit was 15, the Atlanta Braves signed him to a contract.  He hit .212/.270/.283 in his first year at rookie ball and .220/.301/.399 his second year. He was just 16.

The following year he got his act together as an enterprising 17-year-old posting an admirable .320/.383/.463 line. He snuck into the top 100 prospects before the following season and would remain on that list until the end of 2003. At one point, he was the 8th best prospect in all the land.

He debuted in the majors with the Braves in 2001 at age 19 and didn’t get enough at bats to do anything. However, he wouldn’t return to the bigs until 2004, as a seasoned veteran (he was 22). He didn’t fair all that well, but the next year he saw 274 plate appearances in the majors and went .305/.359/.435. That would be the best stretch of his career.

Since then, he was traded for Willy Aybar, Danys Baez and cash in one deal, Scott Proctor in another and (along with Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez) for Nick Swisher and Kanekoa Texeira.

Finally, in 2010 – a shocking 14 years after he signed his first contract – he would seemingly find a home with the Kansas City Royals. He appeared in 84 games for the Royals and went .297/.378/.511.

At 29, this season, Betemit has gone .297/.358/.419. If you combine the last two years, you get 496 plate appearances and a .300/.375/.484 line with a 162-game average of 20 HRs.

This isn’t the most objective piece as I have about a bazillion Betemit rookie cards (and boy was he skinny). But, in my opinion, the only thing stopping Betemit from being a top 10 third baseman is playing time (and Mike Moustakas). A final Betemit line will look a lot like .290/.350/.440 with 13-15 HRs. What a long strange trip it’s been.

Jeremy Guthrie – In 2002, the Cleveland Indians made Guthrie the 22nd pick of the draft. He’d dominate AA and earn a quick promotion to AAA, where things didn’t go so well. He started the next season in AA hoping to rekindle the previous year’s promise. It didn’t work, nor did his promotion to AAA. In 2005, he spent the entire year at AAA and did nothing (5.08 ERA and 1.47 WHIP). Still he had a not completely miserable 2.04 K/BB ratio.

Finally, in 2006, at 27 years old, Guthrie would show promise at AAA: 3.14 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. However, he had little success with the major league club in very few innings and the Orioles plucked him off waivers. This might have been one of the smartest things that club has done in a decade.

In 2007, Guthrie showed all the promise of a late first rounder. He had a 2.07 K/BB rate, a 3.70 ERA, and 6.31 K/9 rate. While he has averaged 12 loses per year in his four full seasons with the Orioles, he also has a 2.20 K/BB rate, 4.06 ERA and 5.5 K/9 rate.

He has actually improved on those numbers, so far, in 2011, posting a 5.85 K/9 rate and 3.71 K/BB rate. For the first time in his career Guthrie is walking less than two batters per nine innings – significantly less.

What is most surprising is that batters are making more and better contact on strikes. His line drive rate is up and his ground ball rate is down. However, his BABIP is about where it has been for his career.

I’d be mildly surprised if Guthrie, all of a sudden, stopped walking guys. However, it isn’t a total mirage. By the end of the year, Guthrie will pitch 200+ innings with an ERA in the 3.80 – 4.00 range, 140 Ks and a very nice 1.25 WHIP. Can anyone say Tim Hudson? He’d look real good in an Indians uniform right about now.

Phil Humber – I’m not sure what Earl Weaver would say about a 6-man rotation, however it’s not as if one White Sox pitcher is discernibly better than another.

In fact, Humber might have one of the better pedigrees on the entire staff. He was the 3rd overall pick by the New York Mets in 2004. After the draft, Humber was immediately ranked the #50 prospect in all of baseball.

Unfortunately, he injured his elbow in his first start in AA in 2005 and was out of baseball recuperating for 377 days.

In 2008, he was traded to the Minnesota Twins as part of the Johan Santana deal. He didn’t show much promise for the Twins in AAA, walking over three batters per nine in his two seasons and allowing a ton of hits. Still, he did post a 7 and 6.5 K/9-rate, so there was some promise. However, not enough for the Twins to keep him around as he was granted his free agency

The Royals signed him in 2009 and on August 5, 2010 he earned a promotion. Twenty days later, Humber got his first major league win.

While he pitched reasonably well for the Royals, it was only 21.2 innings and he was placed on waivers. The Athletics took a run at him before, ultimately, the White Sox plucked him off the wire.

This year, Humber has pitched 67.2 innings for the Sox, posting a 3.06 ERA, 4.08 xFIP, 5.05 K/9 and 1.86 BB/9. Any way you slice it, he’s been good in a real world sense.

Humber is getting a decent swinging strike percentage (8.3%) and a pretty low contact rate (82.2%). In addition, batters don’t seem to be making great contact against him (16.1% line drive rate). Still, that .224 BABIP is not going to continue.

I really like the Humber story. I’m very happy for him. Not only did he overcome the surgery and journeyman waiver process, but he was also struck in the face by a line drive. I just can’t really advocate his fantasy ownership. At some point, he won’t be a full time starter, and, even if he continues to start, we’re looking at a 4.50 ERA at best, 5.4 K/9 and maybe 165 total innings.

AL-only seems like the only place for him. Still, if he could end up on a National League squad at some point, things could get more interesting.

In honor of Cinco de Mayo, I won’t mention it again because I don’t know what it means other than most bars have deals on tequila shots.  What I will talk about is the pitchers that are getting lucky thus far according to their xFIP.  If you don’t know what the xFIP I’m talking about.  Read the following:  xFIP — stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching.  It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you.  It’s a pure ERA.  It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower for like 2 weeks because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it.  It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it.  That’s xFIP.  Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher, who has an ERA of 2.75, but his xFIP is a 6.75.  A -4.00 difference.  That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up.  So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their xFIPs for the first month or so of the fantasy baseball season. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)

Dustin Moseley – -2.21.  I’d still continue to throw him in Petco-sponsored games, but I’d be careful about his away games.  At some point, he’s gonna look like Dustin Diamond.

Alexi Ogando – -1.89.  “His stuff is soooooo nasty!”  That’s you.  Soooooo, why is his K-rate soooooo whatever?  Ogando’s men LOB% is off the charts silly and his BABIP is abnormal like those cylinder hamburgers that rotate at 7-11.

Josh Tomlin – -1.57.  It is a total shocker to see Lily’s kid on this list of the luckiest pitchers.  Only because I’m surprised I even bothered mentioning him.

Zach Britton – -1.53.  Not surprising to me since he doesn’t strikeout anyone (4.78 K/9).  Throw in a terrible division and he’s going to hit the roofie skids at some point.  Caveat emptor for our Latin friends.

Kevin Correia – -1.45.  Wait, Correia actually sucks?  C’mon!  Get outta town, Grey!

Justin Masterson – -1.42.  Well, you knew his ERA wouldn’t stay in the low 2′s, at least you should’ve known.  But since his xFIP is 3.67, he could be usable going forward.  At least that’s what I want to tell myself since we actually own him in a league.

Tom Gorzelanny – -1.38.  To nerdify Shakira, his BABIPs lie, which has his WHIP at a redonkulous level.

Jeremy Guthrie – -1.29.  This post is kinda like shooting fish in a barrel.  Of course, Guthrie isn’t a 3.00 ERA pitcher.  Sorry to his fantasy owners and family.

Randy Wolf – -1.23. Since Wolf’s xFIP is only 3.62, I wouldn’t be as concerned.  If you get a 3.62 from Wolf, you’d take that all day long and twice on Muesday.

Trevor Cahill – -1.23.  Since I don’t own him anywhere, I look forward to the team from White-Out dropping correction fluid all over his stats.

Another week has come and gone my friends, well, I’m assuming we are friends. Hopefully fake baseball is still enjoyable to you, even if your team is in the crapper. It’s not too late, in fact it’s still way early. Trust in the pitcher is the biggest thing that makes a start a must start. Listen, I can’t put it to you any simpler than this. Pitchers are held to a different standard than hitters. They can get a hitter out 7 times out of 10 and they look terrible. But if they get them out 8 out of 10, we salute them, throw a parade and erect sandcastles in there honor. It’s a fine line between being great and being crappy. I have said this before and I still use it for “entertainment value” when determining if I am going to start a guy on a certain day. Go to your trusty odds maker, whether it be the newspaper, website or Uncle Geno. The people who have the most to lose on this know what they’re doing. That’s why there are no casinos named after charitable organizations. So, in times of despair, don’t fret, you are surrounded by information that will guide you in the right direction. Unfortunately, when the pitcher sucks and should have been great, there is nothing we can do but take it on the chin. Enjoy another week of fantasy double dipping and streaming. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups may change.)

ONE START OPTIONS

5/3
Sam Lecure vs. Hou – Figueroa
5/4
Clayton Richard vs. Pit – Correia
Jake Arrieta @ KC – Davies
Fausto Carmona @ Oak – Cahill
5/5
Bruce Chen vs. Bal – Tillman
Joel Pineiro @ Bos – Lackey
5/6
Ian Kennedy @ SD – Stauffer
Philip Humber @ Sea – Fister
Jason Hammel @ SF – Cain
5/7
Charlie Morton vs. Hou – Norris
Jon Garland @ NYM – Young

TWO START OPTIONS

Josh Tomlin (@Oak vs. Ross, @Ana vs. Haren) Finally getting use out of that magic trick game he got as a kid. BAA is tiny .186, there is always a but though, a low K/9 and is second in LOB%. I believe Napoleon Dynamite said it best, “Lucky.”

Brandon McCarthy (Tex vs. Holland, @KC vs. Hochevar) Already a 1 WAR pitcher, there are only 15 in all of baseball. Numbers are saying that he should be even better than he has already shown. Best showing for a McCarthy since Weekend at Bernie’s.

Mike Leake (Hou vs. Happ, @CHC vs. Russell) Five-fingered Mike. Cueto’s return is coming most likely in the Cubs series. Homer not too long after. Tough decisions for Dusty. I rank ‘em Wood, Leake and then Bailey, until he proves he can’t get hurt walking and chewing gum at same time.

Erik Bedard (Tex vs. Ogando, CHW vs. Buehrle) I’m not a buyer here. Some K potential but injuries and Seattle’s offensive woes make me wonder when the last time an Erik actually did something good, not so fast there Poncherello.

Chris Volstad (@StL vs. Lohse, Was vs. Gorzellany) Don’t know why I like him, maybe it’s the height thing. Gets me easily confused with Josh. Medium K potential, but based on match-ups this week me likey a little extra.

Tyson Ross (Cle vs. Tomlin, @KC vs. Francis) A’s pitchers are hot commodities this week. Decent numbers in minors for K’s. Control will be a problem. Just getting stretched out, 2-3 more starts will put him in the “Why didn’t I add him before he took off?” category.

Livan Hernandez (Phi vs. Oswalt, @Fla vs. Sanchez) The epitome of fishing for wins. Offers zero K’s but keeps trucking along giving you 6 innings of 3 run ball. About as cool for fantasy rosters as Jorts.

Esmil Rogers (@Ari vs. Saunders, @SF vs. Vogelsong) Looked up his family bio and has a brother named Egrimac. Walks make me unhappy, looking to avenge only bad start of the season against SF. Compare his numbers to Ubaldo, yeah, he isn’t that bad now.

Jeremy Guthrie (@CHW vs. Buehrle, TB vs. Shields) Hard luck guy, Dustin Moseley even feels bad. Take away the start vs. Cle and he has allowed 3 runs in 27 innings. Always liked Stanford alums, maybe it’s because of the LSJUMB.

Wade Davis (Tor vs. Reyes, @Bal vs. Bergesen) Poor K/BB ratio, still sporting an ERA in the high 2’s. Seems to be pitching better than ancillary numbers would suggest. Is still way under owned and looked at, first it was Hellickson and his boyish charm and now it’s Shields who likes to do everything by himself.