Fantasy Baseball Advice

With 2 HRs yesterday, Adam Lind now has 36/11/43/.313 on the year.  I know, Cody Ross has looked good for stretches.   Even Aaron Rowand has had a week or two here and there.  But why are people asking me if Adam Lind should be sold off or worse dropped?  You don’t want 85/27/100/.285?  I know he was as boring as dog balls for the month of May.  Well, he’s batting near-.500 in June.  He’s shoved into the middle of the Blue Jays lineup like a Jenga piece no one will touch.  Heart. Of. The. Lineup.  Dear Razzball reader, let’s look at his OBP, shall we?  He had a .380 OBP in 1500+ ABs in the minors and a .377 OBP so far this year.  In the minors, he had a .318 average, he has a .313 average this year.  He has power potential AND can hit for average.  (Caps for emphasis and the hyperopic.)  Fastballs?  He likes them.  Breaking balls?  Don’t bother him.  Sure, it took him until 25 to develop into a major leaguer, but so what?  What were you doing at 25?  I was trying to figure what I wanted to do at 26.  Lind’s biggest drawback, he can’t field.  Holy heffin’ hey in the screw hole, that doesn’t matter to us.  Lind’s good, don’t be scared.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Josh Hamilton – Out 4-6 weeks with an abdominal tear.  His owners out 4-6 weeks with tears.

Jose Valverde – Fist pumps could be back as early as this weekend.  Trade Hawkins!  Joking.  Unless you can… No, that’s wrong.  But really what is right without someone doing wrong?  Nietzsche!

C.J. Wilson – I was remiss in leaving him off yesterday’s roundup.  Frank² could be headed to the DL again with shoulder soreness.  Wilson should be owned in all leagues.

Brandon McCarthy – Headed to the DL with a stress fracture of shoulder.  Votto feels for him, he has a stress fracture of his melon.

Chris Davis – 0-for-3, 3 Ks yesterday.  Has 87 Ks in 191 ABs.  Wow.  Listen to this from Matthew Berry, “I’m sticking with Davis.  Look, you didn’t draft him for his batting average anyway, and he is hitting for power with 12 home runs…. Keep in mind he was a career .302 hitter in the minors.”  Oh, okay.  Luckily, he only has two sides of his mouth.  If that is indeed his mouth he’s using.

Jason Marquis – 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  Leads the NL in Wins.  Yup, makes sense.

Torii Hunter – Sidelined with a nagging groin.  I had one of those when I was 19.  I almost went blind because of it.  Sorry, I hate to work blue.  Pun intended.

Chris Iannetta – Due back on Tuesday.  If you’re nursing some schmohawk catcher and Iannetta’s on waivers, act like ya know, MC Lyte.

Clint Barmes – Similar to Hamilton, he’s on a tear.  Only the good kind.  He’s 13-for-31 with a homer and 7 RBIs in his last 7 games.

Garrett Atkins – He’s not even starting anymore.

Randy Johnson - Didn’t he just pitch?  Nice, Giants.  Throw your 45-year-old on short rest.  What, are they trying to get out of an innings clause or something?

Armando Galarraga – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 11 baserunners vs. the White Sox, a team that has a .247 average against righties.  I’m not sure if anyone’s holding out hope Galarraga’s going to be good again like last year, well, he’s not.

Jeremy Bonderman – 4 IP, 6 ER and now the White Sox are .250 against righties.

Miguel Cabrera – Returned and went 0-for-7 in the doubleheader.  Hey, at least he’s back.  I have Jose Reyes and Carlos Quentin playing spades on my DL.

Alexei Ramirez - 5-for-9 with one homer in the doubleheader and now batting .261.  BTW, Alfonso Soriano hit .284 in April, Alexei hit .214.  Soriano hit .216 in May, Alexei hit .281.  Who will have the conch shell in June?

Gordon Beckham – 0 for his first 13 ABs.  Beckham, you’re proving Ozzie right.

Jose Contretras – One hit over eight innings as he returned from the minors, though for him it should be called the seniors.  He could very well get shelled in his next start.

Chipper Jones – HR yesterday, three in two days.  So this is why people own him… Cool, now when do I trade him?  When he sneezes?  Hiccups?  Someone, throw me a bone.

Nick Stavinoha – Went 0-for-4 wearing Pujols’s jersey.

Andy Sonnanstine – 7 IP, 5 ER.  Jeff Niemann stole his juice.

Sean West – 8 IP, 0 ER. I know, woo-hoo.  I looked at his 60 walks in 100 2/3 innings in Double A, his 22 walks in 42 2/3 innings in Triple A and I vomited on my wall and it spelled out, “Don’t pickup.”

Johnny Damon – 12th homer yesterday.  What’s his over/under set at for homers?  24?  I’m taking the over.  By 2.  Who wants some action?

Randy Choate – Maddon brought Choate into the 8th inning of a 4-3 game yesterday.  A game the Rays were losing.

Andrew McCutchen – 4-for-7 with 2 triples, batting leadoff as the unknown soldyjer’s light burns in the two hole.  McCutchen’s batting .400; somebody reach behind the Häagen-Dazs and take Ted Williams’s brain out of the freezer, he’s gonna wanna see this!  I’d sell McCutchen right now if you don’t need speed.

Josh Outman – 6 IP, 3 ER and has an ERA of 3.17.  I swear to you, he’s not this good, but he gets the Giants next time out.  All aboard!

Andrew Bailey – 2 days, 2 saves.  He’s the closer, guys.  Stop owning Ziegler, people in your league are starting to wonder if you’ve abandoned your team.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – 2-for-4 yesterday with 4 RBIs.  A homer the day before.  I’m not saying he’s God’s gift to cornermen, but as teams pitch around A-Gonz, Kouz could pick up some scraps.

David Ortiz – His doctor prescribed eyedrops to hopefully help with his hitting.  Who’s his optometrist, Victor Conte?

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere.  To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team.  We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2009 Tigers Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Bill Ferris from The Detroit Tigers Weblog.

1) Last year’s acquisition of Edgar Renteria and Miguel Cabrera led to a defensive rotation that saw 3 regulars (Guillen, Cabrera, and Inge) bounce around the field.  Has the musical chairs ended?  Does Carlos Guillen really play the whole year in LF?

I think Guillen will get the most at-bats out there, but I’d see that being only about 60-65% or so. The impending injury to Gary Sheffield will likely free up the DH spot at some point and things will get shuffled around. I think he’ll likely fare okay  at the position, but it will be other factors that may force him to move (like the need for more offense in the infield for example).

2) What are your thoughts on Verlander and Bonderman for 2009?  Bounceback candidates or more challenges to come?

I expect more from both of them. I think Verlander will make the tweak or two he needs to regain his control. Plus he didn’t pitch that badly in terms of his peripherals last year, I’d expect some natural regression (progression) towards his FIP numbers. Bonderman I think will be a big boost to the rotation. He’s had injury problems the last 2 years, but last year’s injury should have him available to pitch the bulk of the season. Plus it gave his elbow some extra rest and I think he’ll be healthier and more effective than at any point in his career.

3) Would you take the over or under on the following HR/RBI projections:  Miguel Cabrera 35/110, Gary Sheffield 20/80, Magglio Ordonez 20/100, Adam Everett 2/40?

Over, Under, Over, Push.

4) Who ends up with more saves:  Fernando Rodney, Brandon Lyon, or Joel Zumaya?

Brandon Lyon. If Zumaya is healthy I think he’ll be the guy ultimately, but given that is such a big IF I’m penciling him in for 0 at the moment.

5) My blogmate Grey sports an impressive moustache.  Rank the moustaches of these noteworthy Detroit Tigers baseball cap wearers:  Jack Morris, Jim Leyland, Kirk Gibson, Chet Lemon, Magnum PI?

Great question. Tom Selleck in a landslide followed by Jack Morris, Kirk Gibson, Jim Leyland and lastly Chet Lemon. As an aside, I saw Tom Selleck hit a couple balls out during batting practice at Tiger Stadium one time and this is one of my favorite TV scenes of all time (see below)

After I posted the top 40 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball, there was a public outcry in the comments.  Where is so and so?!  It was as if I butchered their bunny rabbit like the Roger and Me lady.  No one’s butchering your bunny rabbit, friend.  Your bunny rabbit’s fine.  Unfortunately, I don’t think your bunny rabbit’s a top 40 starter.  Your bunny rabbit, friend, is a top 60 starter.  How’s dem carrots?  BTW, while the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings are the gospel, they aren’t set in stone.  I update them occasionally.  Anyway, here’s the top 60 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball:

41. Justin Verlander – This is the first tier of these starters.  This tier I call, “Guys I took grief for leaving off my top 40 starters list.”  Every other ‘pert has Verlander in the 25 to 30 range.  There’s lots of anecdotal evidence why he wasn’t that good last year.  The new pitching coach picked out a flaw in his mechanics, at Tigerfest Verlander admitted his arm was tired from 2006, Inge’s butt pats aren’t as firm as Pudge’s, etc.  Maybe these things are true, or maybe no one wants to admit Verlander is not the pitcher he showed in 2006.  In 2006, Verlander left a huge amount of baserunners on.  His ERA that year was 3.63.  His FIP ERA, which is basically ERA without fielding, was 4.35.  So he was really a 4.35 ERA pitcher the year that he was tremendous.  Then throw in his Ks have gone down, his walks have gone up.  I purposely left him off the top 40 starters because I don’t want him on any team at the spot he’s being drafted.  In the end, Verlander is a 4.00 ERA, 1.30 WHIP pitcher.  That’s fine, it’s just not a 25 to 30 range pitcher like others would have you believe.  2009 Projections:  15-9/4.00/1.30/160

42. Zach Grienke – I think Rudy’s 20 risky pitchers post says it all on Greinke.  I’m especially concerned this year about pitchers who went from reliever to starter in the last two years.  Remember Reliever to Starter to DL.  It’s not that I won’t draft one, I just want to preach caution.  Then you throw in the fact, Greinke’s two years removed from a nervous breakdown and he plays for the Royals.  Put on the breaks, people.  The Royals are not this year’s Rays.  2009 Projections:  9-7/4.10/1.30/130 and starts missed.

43. Brett Myers – See Greinke, Zach or 1/18th of an inch above.  2009 Projections:  12-5/4.30/1.32/130 and starts missed.

44. Ted Lilly – Also mentioned in the 20 risky pitcher post.  Caveat emptor as they say in Honduras.  2009 Projections:  12-10/4.30/1.25/160

45. Ryan Dempster – See Myers, Brett then see Greinke, Zach then see 20 risky pitchers post.  I’m probably most concerned about Dempster from this tier.  His 2008 screams outlier.  Here, listen… Dempster’s 2008 season, “Outlier!”  See?  2009 Projections:  9-7/4.50/1.35/120 and starts missed.

46. Derek Lowe – This is a new tier.  I call this tier, “Guys I’d draft to be my third or fourth starter.”  This tier goes from here to Kuroda.  Derek Lowe has proven himself to be a reliable workhorse, just nothing that flashy in the K department.  A steady pitcher from one or two of your starters helps you when you take fliers on other guys cough David Price cough.  I already went over Derek Lowe’s move to the Braves in detail.  2009 Projections:  14-10/3.60/1.22/140

47. Clayton Kershaw – The walks worry me.  52 in 107.2 innings is P to the lenty.  That’s why he’s this low.  The Ks have me excited.  He’s definitely worth a flier.  I do think he can outperform this ranking.  2009 Projections:  11-6/4.20/1.40/140

48. Jair Jurrjens – There’s concern about his jump in pitches/innings last year from the previous year, but he throws a low percentage of curves/sliders and lots of sinking fastballs.  He’s not going to be an ace, but there’s good reason to believe he can be a solid number two to three.  2009 Projections:  12-8/3.75/1.35/150

49. Ubaldo Jimenez – Walk numbers like Kershaw but in Coors would usually lead me to tell you to pass, but his stuff is nasty.  Like first name ain’t baby nasty.  I’d be careful about the leagues where I grabbed Jimenez though.  Walks in Coors could explode in your face in any league shallower than 12 team ones.  2009 Projections:  10-8/4.20/1.40/165

50. Fausto Carmona – Didn’t like him last year.  I like him this year.  Last year, he had a lot going against him.  This year he still has no Ks against him.  So I don’t like him that much.  Everything in moderation, except moderation. You can quote me on that or whoever I just bogarted it from.  2009 Projections:  14-9/4.00/1.25/120

51. John Maine – He was pitching hurt last year and losing some speed on his fastball when he looked like crizz-ap.  I don’t think he’s going to be an ace, but he could move up these rankings if he is indeed healthy in the spring, which he is claiming he will be.  2009 Projections:  13-7/3.85/1.35/150

52. Scott Baker – Mentioned in the 20 risky pitcher post and had a high amount of men left on base, but has enough ability to induce strikeouts to make me like him to an extent.  I’m a bit of a whore for Ks if you haven’t noticed. 2009 Projections:  12-6/3.95/1.22/150

53. Andy Pettitte – I don’t want Pettitte in all leagues just those AL-Only ones.  He’s way past the point of “accidentally” backing his ass up into a Clemens syringe.  2009 Projections:  15-10/4.40/1.40/160

54. Hiroki Kuroda – Doesn’t have the K/9 ratio to get too excited about and he was one of the largest FLAKES in the majors last year.  (A FLAKE is basically a pitcher who goes from excellent to unusable from start to start.  A FLAKE is also Manny Ramirez.)  2009 Projections:  13-9/3.90/1.25/120

55. Oliver Perez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Pelfrey.  I call this tier.  “No thanks.”  Perez can be great.  Doesn’t matter, I’m off him like black off rice.  2009 Projections:  14-10/4.50/1.42/190

56. Gavin Floyd – Everything from last year points to him having more luck than stuff.  In fact, CHONE projections for 2009 has Floyd at a 5.05 ERA.  I just threw up a little in Gavin Floyd’s mouth.  2009 Projections:  12-11/4.50/1.32/140

57. Jeremy Bonderman – Bonderman’s career took a left turn down an alley in the red light district of Amsterdam and now it’s living with an STD in Copenhagen and it changed its name to Jan Lingön Strudel.  Until Jan Lingön Strudel shows me a year where he’s worthwhile, I’m not drafting him.  2009 Projections:  9-10/4.50/1.40/125

58. Armando Galarraga – He had a FIP (ERA independent of fielding) of 4.88 compared to his real world 3.88.  Or, I guess, imaginary world.  Also, mentioned in the 20 risky pitcher post.  2009 Projections:  9-10/4.50/1.26/110

59. Chris Carpenter – There’s plenty of pitchers to choose from, give Carpenter a year to prove himself.  That’s all, one year.  Or maybe until the All-Star Break.  Just don’t draft him out of the gate.  It’s not worth the ulcer.  2009 Projections:  9-5/3.70/1.27/110 in 20 starts

60. Andy Sonnastine – Not that you thought I was a prostitute, but I wouldn’t touch him if you paid me.  Also, mentioned in the 20 risky pitcher post.  If you want to read a contrary opinion, Fangraphs likes him in 2009.  You say tomato, I say marginal starter who doesn’t strikeout enough hitters. 2009 Projections:  9-9/4.50/1.30/100

61. Joe Saunders – What I said about Sonnastine² 2009 Projections:  11-7/4.15/1.26/95

62. Mike Pelfrey – What I said about Sonnastine³ Also, mentioned in the 20 risky pitcher post.  2009 Projections:  10-10/4.50/1.40/100

63. Justin Duchscherer – Because this awful tier just won’t end, I had to make this the top 63 starters plus 2 post.  Are you happy with yourself, Justin Dook-sheer?  2009 Projections:  5-7/3.85/1.15/70 and missed starts.

After the top 60 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but these two stand out:

Wandy Rodriguez – I already went over why Wandy’s a 2009 fantasy sleeper.  If you don’t want to read it, that’s on you.  2009 Projections:  10-7/3.75/1.30/160

Jeremy Guthrie – Anyone who has read Razzball for longer than a minute (not an Urbandictionary minute which is actually long) knows that I love me some Guthrie.  Hopefully he continues to be underrated.  2009 Projections:  12-10/3.90/1.25/130