Fantasy Baseball Advice

Pittsburgh Pirates 2011 Minor League Review

Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America:

2011 (19) | 2010 (15) | 2009 (18) | 2008 (26) | 2007 (19) | 2006 (19)

2011 Affiliate Records

MLB: [72-90] NL Central

AAA: [76-68] International League – Indianapolis

AA: [64-77] Eastern League – Altoona

A+: [74-63] Florida State League – Bradenton

A: [69-69] South Atlantic League – West Virginia

A(ss): [31-44] New York-Penn League – State College

The Run Down

With the first overall pick in the June draft, the Pirates selected Gerrit Cole and gave him $8 million upon signing.  Although I’m partial toward Trevor Bauer – Cole’s teammate at UCLA and third overall pick in June – Cole is probably a safer option, given his projectable frame and mechanics.  And while I doubt he’ll arrive before 2013, it’ll be fun to watch him destroy batters in Double-A (Cole was clocked at 102 MPH a month ago in the Arizona Fall League).  In addition to Cole, the Pirates’ system has quite a few high-ceiling arms:  James Taillon, Luis Heredia, and Stetson Allie all profile as frontline starters.  Unfortunately, though, they’re rather far from arriving in Pittsburgh.  Offensively, the Pirates’ system doesn’t have too much to be excited about for 2012.  Starling Marte has great potential and could yield some fantasy value, but I’m afraid we’re still a year or two away from him being viable option.  Josh Bell is probably Pittsburgh’s most promising offensive prospect, but the 19-year-old switch-hitting outfielder is a long ways off.  Until Cole arrives, there’s no one draft-worthy here.

Arizona Fall League Players – Mesa Solar Sox

Nathan Baker (LHP); Gerrit Cole (RHP); Mike Colla (RHP); Jeff Inman (RHP); Jarek Cunningham (2B); Brock Holt (2B)

Graduated Prospects

Alex Presley (OF); Josh Harrison (3B); Michael McKenry (C); Chase d’Arnaud (SS); Tony Watson (LHP); Chris Leroux (RHP); Daniel Moskos (LHP)

Players of Interest

Hitters

Starling Marte | OF:

Marte spent all of 2011 at Double-A Altoona, slashing .332/.370/.500 in 572 trips to the plate.  What’s exciting to note, here, is that he seems to be developing the kind power that he’ll need as an outfield regular in the big leagues:  after posting a .121 ISO in 2009, followed by .141 2010, he continued the upward trend with a .168 ISO mark in 2011.  Marte is a fabulous defensive outfielder with a strong arm and good speed.  It’s likely that we’ll see him up with the Pirates by midseason.

Jordy Mercer | SS:

With 51 XBH (including 19 homers) in 551 plate appearances in 2011 between AA and AAA, Mercer has definitely surfaced on the Pirates’ radar.  The fact that he can play comfortably at short, second and third should also make him an attractive option for the big club.  Based on that versatility, along with a capable (although, not spectacular) bat, I expect Mercer to contribute in 2012.

Pitchers

Jeff Locke | LHP – SP:

Locke earned a September call up, which resulted in four big-league starts for the lefty.  Being that those starts weren’t particularly impressive (0-3, 6.75 FIP), and also that he has only five starts at the Triple-A level, I expect to see Locke back with Indianapolis in 2012.  Mixing a high 80s fastball with a curveball and changeup, he relies on plus command and overwhelms no one.  He definitely needs more work in the minors, but should a spot open in the Pirates’ rotation, Locke might get the first look based on his big-league experience.

Kyle McPherson | RHP – SP:

McPherson had a bit of a breakout year in 2011, posting a 2.96 ERA in 28 starts between Altoona and Bradenton.  The 24-year-old righty shows nice command of a fastball that touches 95, and counters with a tricky changeup that often misses bats.  Profiling as a third or fourth starter, McPherson will open 2012 in the Indianapolis rotation, and could be up with Pittsburgh before long.

Bryan Morris | RHP – RP:

Morris made the transition from starter to reliever in 2011 and performed well in his new role.  He features a nice curveball to pair with a power sinker that touches 95.  Depending on what the Pirates need at the top level, Morris has a chance to be in a Pittsburgh uniform out of camp and could be competing for saves at some point, provided Hanrahan struggles.

Honorable Mention

Hitters

Tony Sanchez | C:

The outlook on Sanchez isn’t quite as hopeful after his production slipped – both offensively and defensively – at AA in 2011.  However, it’s still safe to assume that the catcher will make it to Pittsburgh based simply on the merit of his defense.  While earlier projections saw Sanchez arriving in 2012, his struggles at Altoona have knocked him off that pace.  Don’t expect to see him behind the plate in the Majors until 2013.

Pitchers

Justin Wilson | LHP – SP/RP:

Wilson’s fastball, which consistently sits at 93-95, warrants excitement.  Lousy command, though, has tempered most expectations.  With quite a few promising arms competing for starts at the Triple-A level, I suspect Pittsburgh will move Wilson into more of a permanent relief role.  Improved command might elicit another look as a starter, but his quickest (and perhaps only) route to the big club is via relief.

Rudy Owens | LHP – SP:

After a tremendous 2010 in Double-A, Owens disappointed in 2012 at Indianapolis.  His 4.11 FIP in 2011 reflects slightly better than his 5.05 ERA, but these clearly are not numbers of a MLB-ready prospect.  If Owens cannot get back to his 2010 form, he’s looking at another full year in Triple-A.

 

The top 50 fantasy baseball prospects list aims to provide a list solely for fantasy baseball purposes. Due to fantasy baseball’s immediacy of statistical production, players are not necessarily ranked based on tools or projections far into the future, but instead, current production. Aspects taken into consideration are fantasy baseball’s positional scarcity, Razzball philosophies, scouting reports and personal biases. Please keep in mind that this is published before the end of the 2011 season. Therefore, it is highly possible that some rookies on this list may lose their rookie eligibility (e.g. Kyle Seager), others who were expected to continue to acquire enough experience by the end of the season who may not (e.g. Brett Lawrie). Revision in the late off-season shall occur. There are highly touted names omitted from the Top 50 list that some might believe warrant a ranking that don’t fall into the prior caveat(s). Before lamenting, please check the Honorable Mention section. The most notable omissions are either blocked, provide more real world baseball value, need to repeat performance because of their pedigree, have GM’s avoiding Super-2 status or are rebounding from injuries. The signings in the upcoming weeks of the offseason and Spring Training could cause many players to rise or fall. Disputes, inquiries and general feedback is welcomed and encouraged. To be included, I used MLB eligibility requirements — less than 130 ABs or 50 IP, though I’ve made a few exceptions where I felt it was warranted. See Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2012, Part I for the complete list.

26. Trevor Bauer – RHP (SP) – ARI: Considered MLB-ready outta the gate when drafted in June 2011. Keith Law’s pre-draft scouting report indicates, “[His] fastball-curveball combination is [...] big league-caliber … shown he can get deep into games with regularity despite the lack of prototypical physicality. His heavy college workload — topping 130 pitches in the majority of his starts this spring [2011] … [workload] could impact whether he helps the Arizona Diamondbacks this season or what role in which that would come.” He has a plus-fastball sits between 92 to 95 MPH with good life and a 12-to-6 plus-curveball. His changeup needs work. Control and command is spotty and inconsistent, typically derived from overthrowing. Mechanically the only true concern is him locking his left knee upon delivery of the baseball. There is concern of possible knee injuries in the future. Beyond this quibble, his stuff is not in question, it is his combination of control and command, being overworked in college, and possible mechanically driven medical concern.

27. Martin Perez – LHP (SP) – TEX: Texas is loaded at pitcher, but you can never have enough young arms. Perez followed up a poor 2010 in Double-A with improved numbers across the board at Double-A but a regression in production when promoted to Triple-A. I see a midseason call-up. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

28. Garrett Richards – LHP (SP) – ATL: The Angels gave Richards two spot starts in 2011 in which he struggled. Prior to 2011 and before reaching more advanced hitters (read: before Double-A), he was able to produce high strikeout rates. In 2011, at Double-A, Richards strikeout rates plummeted from mid-9 K/9 to 6.5 K/9. Projects as a mid-rotation starter who pitches to contact or a power reliever.

29. Zack Cox – 3B – St.L: David Freese is not the answer for the Cardinals at third base. The 22-year-old Cox had an excellent 2011 season. In 344 Double-A at-bats he slashed .294/.357/.436 with 29 XBH (10 Hr) and a 69:29 K:BB ratio. Is considered a “gifted hitter with strength and strike-zone awareness.” Offensively reminds me of Ryan Zimmerman.

30. Kyle Seager – 2B/3B – SEA: By the end of the season, his rookie eligibility may be void. The Mariners hot-corner hasn’t been the same since Adrian Beltre left. Seager has the flexibility to play multiple positions. Barring an injury, would get the nod over Alex Liddi at this point. Seager has shown to be of average power – gap mostly – produces a decent average and the occasional stolen base.

31. Eric Surkamp – LHP (SP) – SF: Earlier this year, I said, “Surkamp is a soft-tossing lefty … Fastball sits in the upper 80s with heavy sinking action. Changeup and curveball are both plus pitches. Has a three-quarter delivery that creates good deception and he has strong command of all his pitches.”

32. Bryce Harper – RF – WAS: The hype will start early in April and build to a crescendo in June. I don’t think he’ll be up before August at the earliest. I’d expect Mike Trout-type results upon his first call-up. In his prime, I think he’ll be similar to Ryan Braun in his prime. This is all assuming no major setbacks or injuries in 2012.

33. Jake Odorriz – RHP (SP) – KC: The Royals are loaded with pitching prospects. As exemplified by Danny Duffy, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas Johnny Giavotella, Salvador Perez, Aaron Crow and Tim Collins’ 2011 call-ups, the Royals 2012 roster should see a heavy turnover, especially at pitcher. Will start out of the gate or be a June call up. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

34. Joe Benson – OF – MIN: The Twins best power hitting prospect. Injury prone. When healthy has shown strong plate discipline, above-average power (25 to 30 home run ceiling), and ability to steal the occasional base. He’s a Hunter Pence with a slightly lower average and a few less steals, if/when healthy.

35. John Lamb – LHP (SP) – KC: See half-inch above in the Odorizzi blurb. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

36. Chris Marrero – 1B – WAS: With Mike Morse coming into his own in 2011, the Nationals will not have to rush Marrero into the starting lineup. He’s proven himself at each level. In his prime, projects as a mid-20 home run hitter. Currently, I would expect a Freddie Freeman-type rookie season: .291/.352/.461 and high-teen home runs over a full season. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

37. Dellin Betances – RHP (SP) – NYY: As the Yankees best pitching prospect, high expectations will be placed on him, especially with the recent back-end rotation woes for the Bronx Bombers. June call-up looks to be in place. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

38. Liam Hendriks – RHP (SP) – MIN: With Kyle Gibson’s injury concern, Hendriks becomes the next best pitching prospect ready for the show in Minnesota. Not that the Twins will rush him, but their rotation is easily trumped by the Braves Triple-A rotation. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

39. Mike Montgomery – LHP (SP) – KC: Will need to improve command, limit walks and gain more consistency to be more than an AL-Only add. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

40. Kirk Nieuwenhuis – RF – NYM: To quote my Scouting article, “possesses good all-around, broad skill-set played at a balls-to-the-wall approach. Meaning, he has all tools ranging from fringe-average to average tools that make him a solid player but unspectacular at any specific skill. Hitting approach is strong, attempting to utilize all fields and working the count. Still projects as a .270 hitter with gap power within his line-drive swing.” Strikeouts will always be a concern. He’s one Angel Pagan injury away from seeing significant playing time in 2012. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

41. Steve Lombardozzi – 2B/IF – WAS: The Nationals were unwilling to give him up in a trade for Denard Span. Of course they did, they are the same player but at different positions.

42. Robbie Erlin – LHP (SP) – SD: Good strikeout potential, excellent future home ballpark, and amazing control. Yes, please. Listed lower than my praise because I don’t see the Padres rushing him to the majors.

43. Neil Ramirez – RHP (SP) – TEX: Similar to Erlin, I see the Rangers allow him to accumulate more experience at Triple-A. He started the 2011 season at High-A and was promoted to Triple-A and then demoted to Double-A. Needs to improve command. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

44. Andrew Oliver – LHP (SP) – DET: I think he gets pushed to the bullpen due to inconsistency and command concerns. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

45. Matt Dominguez – 3B – FLA: A strong NL-only and deep league play. He’ll sustain his major league career through his excellent defensive skills not his average-at-best bat. Projects to be a .260 hitter with average power (15 home runs). So David Freese.

46. Jaff Decker – LF – SD: At some point, his old-player skill-set (power and walks with poor defense) will catch up to his prospect value. Currently, I see him being a similar type of player as Jack Cust. That’s both a compliment and a red flag. May need to traded to an AL team to play DH. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

47. Casey Kelly – RHP (SP) – SD: Similar predicament to Robbie Erlin, but without strikeout potential – not even close. His home park causes his value to rise. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

48. Grant Green – SS – OAK: Cliff Pennington is keeping the spot warm for the future A’s shortstop. Better gap power than home run power (projects as average power), strong average, an occasional steal. Defensively, question marks are raise about his efficiency. Think a .300 hitter with 12 to 15 home runs and 10 steals from shortstop over the course of the season. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

49. Nick Franklin – SS – SEA: Injuries slowed his 2011 season down. Projects for a .280, 12 to 15 home run and 10 steal player. He plays good defense, has a smooth swing and average speed. His 2010 season was bolstered by his environment (California League). With Dustin Ackley manning second, Franklin appears to remain at shortstop. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

50. Travis d’Arnaud – C – TOR: Won the Eastern League MVP with the following slash line: .311/.371/.542 with 55 XBH (21 Hr) and a 100:33 K:BB ratio. Is blocked by J.P. Arencibia at the major league level. Travis d’Arnaud plays much better defense and makes better contact than Arencibia. The power potential is not the same with d’Arnaud, but he could easily hit between 15 and 20 home runs in his rookie year given a full seasons of at-bats (~400). However, that number of at-bats is highly unlikely, more likely to receive 250 at-bats. In that time frame, he could have 5 to 8 home runs with a digestible average.

Extra
51. Josh Vitters – 3B – CHC: Hitting wise, I consider him similar to Delmon Young: swings early and often, relies on pedigree and natural talent, is inconsistent. Defensively he is superior to Young. Aramis Ramirez has shown to be injury prone two of the last three years. Cub fans may finally see their 2007 first round pick. Keep in mind he is turned only 22 on August 27th. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

Late Scratch
Kyle Gibson – RHP (SP) – MIN: He would be a top 15 fantasy prospect if he wasn’t having Tommy John Surgery after injuring his elbow. The Minneapolis Star Tribune reported on September 1, 2011, “Gibson will have reconstructive surgery on his elbow after the initial phase of his rehabilitation program did not go well … surgery [was performed 9/7/11] in New York, … surgery done by Mets team physician, Dr. David Altcheck, who also operated on Joe Nathan’s elbow last year.” I don’t think I’ve ever heard a pitcher who’s pitching elbow hurt significantly successfully complete rehab without TJ Surgery. Twins fans hope that the Mets medical staff doesn’t advise on the healing process either. Then again, Joe Mauer had “bi-lateral leg soreness” for a month. Not sure where Dr. James Andrew (a.k.a Dr. Freeze) was in the whole conversation. Gibson was shutdown early August with elbow tenderness. Statistically, it appeared that his injury may have been lingering since early July. Not relevant until 2013. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

Honorable Mentions
In no particular order
Nick Weglarz (RF, CLE); Casey Crosby (LHP, DET); Trevor Bauer (RHP, ARI); LJ Hoes (2B, BAL); Jarred Cosart (RHP, HOU); Jedd Gyorko (3B, SD); Carlos Triunfel (SS, SEA); Adeiny Hechavarria (SS, TOR); Anthony Gose (OF, TOR); Yasmani Grandal (C, CIN); Chris Archer (TB) (RHP, TB); Jeff Locke (LHP, PIT); Tony Sanchez (C, PIT); Austin Hyatt(RHP, PHI), Michael Taylor (RF, OAK); Chris Withrow (LHP, LAD); Lars Anderson (1B, BOS); Brandon Guyer (OF, TB); Deck McGuire (RHP, TOR); Simon Castro (RHP, SD); Trevor May (RHP, PHI); Jake McGee (LHP, TB); Jeurys Familia (RHP, NYM); Christian Friedrich (LHP, COL); David Cooper (1B, TOR); Austin Romine (C, NYY); Tom Milone (LHP, WAS); Clint Robinson (1B, KC); David Lough (OF, KC); Tim Wheeler (LF/RF, COL); Alex Liddi (3B, SEA); Adrian Cardenas (2B/MI, OAK); Alex Torres (RHP, TB); Rudy Owens (LHP, PIT); Tanner Scheppers (RHP, TEX); Starling Marte (CF, PIT); Matt Adams (1B, St.L); Jose Iglesias (SS, BOS); Carlos Peguero (LF, SEA); Chris Parmelee (1B, MIN); Caleb Gindl (RF, MIL); Jarred Cosart (RHP, HOU)

Wouldn’t say this is crunch time as much as this is “Your nuts are in a cracker and the season’s closing in and squeezing tight so you better just throw any pitchers that are available because you need stats — stat!” time.  The line for last week was 80 IP, 4.05 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 50 Ks and 3 wins.  Not a great line, but if you throw out Lannan and Francis because you had better sense than me and didn’t start them.  The line comes down to 3.42 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.  To recap, these aren’t guys I’d drop anyone worthwhile to get, these starters are meant for streaming purposes and all of their ownership in ESPN is under 50%.  These streamers are in no particular order.  Also, in the final month of the season, managers juggle their lineups more, so there’s no guarantee all of these guys are listed on the right day.  Anyway, here’s some borderline starters for this week in fantasy baseball:

Friday, September 16th

Philip Humber – It’s really slim pickins on Friday for under 50% owned starters.  I’m not a huge fan of Humber but compared to some of the other schmohawks, well, here he is.

Jeff Locke – On Friday, Locke goes against the Smoke Monster in chess and the Dodgers’ weak offense.

Saturday, September 17th

Jeanmar Gomez – Gets the Twins, has only given up 3 earned in the last 17 and a third innings and when you say his first name it causes phlegm.

Rick Porcello – Don’t trust Porcello at all but he goes to a -co stadium and faces the A’s.

Chris Volstad – In his last three starts, 17 1/3 IP and 3.12 ERA.  Here he takes on the Nats and Strasburg’s three to five innings of work.

Sunday, September 18th

Joe Saunders – In 22 innings vs. the Padres, he has a 2.05 ERA and a .190 BAA.  Kill me now for recommending Saunders.

Matt Harrison – 1.84 ERA vs. the Mariners, though I’m not sure there’s any pitchers with a 2+ ERA vs. the M’s.  Maybe Liriano or Danks.  Schmohawks.

Brad Lincoln – Gave a pretty yawnstipating start last time out, but here I am going back to the well like Baby Jessica.

Monday, September 19th

David Huff – I never said the names on this list were gonna be pretty.  There’s only a few teams I could see starting Huff against:  the Mariners and the Mariners minor league affiliates.

Mike Minor – He just dismantled the Marlins (with a four walk performance in 5 2/3 innings — technicalities!).

Tuesday, September 20th

Jason Vargas – Choices aren’t Grade A when I’m taking on a Mariners starter, but it was between him and To Be Announced.  And I don’t like To Be Announced’s matchup.

Edwin Jackson – Highest compliment I can give any guys on this list is when I think one should be owned in more than 50% of leagues.  Jackson’s one of those guys.

Derek Holland – Last three starts (when this was written), 1.77 ERA and 21 Ks in 20 1/3 IP.

Wednesday, September 21st

Dana Eveland – He/she gets the Giants in Chavez Ravine.  Giants have a .236 average vs. lefties, which is only slightly worse than what they’re batting against righties.  As for the lack of other options today, they were kinda Plouffey.  I almost put down Brett Cecil, but he’s all over the map and not in the good traveling circus kind of way.

The top 50 fantasy baseball prospects list aims to provide a list solely for fantasy baseball purposes. Due to fantasy baseball’s immediacy of statistical production, players are not necessarily ranked based on tools or projections far into the future, but instead, current production. Aspects taken into consideration are fantasy baseball’s positional scarcity, Razzball philosophies, scouting reports and personal biases.  There are highly touted names omitted from the Top 50 list that some might believe warrant a ranking. Before lamenting, please check the Honorable Mention section. The most notable omissions are likely from the Kansas City Royals; this is due to Dayton Moore’s Project 2012. Other prospects are either blocked, provide more real world baseball performance, need to repeat performance because of their pedigree, have GM’s avoiding Super-2 status or are rebounding from injuries.  The signings in the upcoming weeks and Spring Training could cause many players to rise or fall. Disputes, inquiries and general feedback is welcomed and encouraged.  To be included, I used MLB eligibility requirements — less than 130 ABs or 50 IP, though I’ve made a few exceptions where I felt it was warranted.

1. Domonic Brown – OF – PHI: With Jayson Werth in Washington, it’s Brown’s time to show off his five-tool potential. For further details, see Scouting the Unknown and Domonic Brown, 2011 Fantasy Outlook.

2. Jeremy Hellickson – RHP – TBR: The trade of Matt Garza opens the door for Hellboy. For further details, see Scouting the Unknown and Jeremy Hellickson, 2011 Fantasy Outlook.

3. Aroldis Chapman – LHP – CIN: Even as a reliever, Chapman has the ability to be helpful in the strikeout category, a la Carlos Marmol. For further details, see Aroldis Chapman, 2011 Fantasy Outlook.

4. Desmond Jennings – OF – TBR: Even with new signings of Damon and Manny, Jennings could be in the majors in the spring. Does have injury concerns; value lies in speed. For further details, see Scouting the Unknown and Desmond Jennings, 2011 Fantasy Outlook.

5. Jesus Montero – C – NYY: The Russell Martin signing complicates his ETA, however, Montero could be a dominating force much like Ryan Braun was in 2007. For further details, see Jesus Montero, 2011 Fantasy Outlook.

6. Freddie Freeman – 1B – ATL: Only thing stopping Freddie is himself, or his Mark Grace type hitting upside. For further details, see Scouting the Unknown and Freddie Freeman, 2011 Fantasy Outlook.

7. Dustin Ackley – 2B/CF – SEA: Sneaky speed and power for your middle infielder position, yes please! For further details, see Scouting the Unknown.

8. Mike Moustakas – 3B – KC: What isn’t there to like about Moustakas? Dayton Moore’s 2012 plan doesn’t count. I have him below Ackley due to ETA concerns. For further details, see Scouting the Unknown and Mike Moustakas, 2011 Fantasy Outlook.

9. Brett Lawrie – 2B/OF – TOR: Not sure if he’ll get the playing time, but has 20 home run power, much like Dan Uggla. If he plays more outfield, he’s only waiting for Jose Bautistia to return to his old self. For further details, see Scouting the Unknown.

10. Lonnie Chisenhall – 3B – CLE: He’s a poorman’s David Wright, so an Adrian Beltre clone works too. For further details, see Scouting the Unknown.

11. Simon Castro – RHP – SD: Maybe not be in the opening rotation, but Castro has a power fastball and a solid changeup to have success in the majors. Now let’s see some consistent control and we’ll all be happy. For further details, see Scouting the Unknown.

12. Zach Britton – LHP – BAL: Pitching in the AL East is a daunting task and the string of prior prized Orioles pitching prospects should make us cautious. Britton is a groundball pitcher though, which should be more helpful than Matusz and Chris Tillman who are flyball pitchers. For further details, see Scouting the Unknown.

13. Chris Sale – LHP – CHW: Quote my Chicago White Sox, 2010 Minor League Review, “[Sale's] [f]astball sits in low to mid 90?s – this may sit lower when he starts. He also throws a sharp slider and has a promising change-up. If Sale can maintain the 50% ground ball rate he had this past year when starting, he could easily be the AL ROY. Yeah, I said it.”

14. Danny Espinosa – 2B – WAS: Check out Grey’s Danny Espinosa, 2011 Fantasy Outlook for the best expectations of his 2011 season.

15. Michael Pineda – RHP – SEA: Shot up everyone’s charts this past year. A great fastball and drastic improvement of his secondary pitches makes Pineda an intriguing pick in 2011. He’s still going to be in Hellickson and Chapman’s shadow, could be a sneaky success story. For further details, see Scouting the Unknown, just know I wasn’t sold on him when I wrote that article and still not to the extent everyone else happens to be.

16. J.P. Arencibia – C – TOR: 25 home runs from my catcher spot, I’ll take the poor average. For further details, see Grey’s 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Top 20 Catchers and Scouting the Unknown.

17. Brandon Beachy – RHP – ATL: Could be this year’s Mike Minor while Julio Teheran (ranked 19th) becomes last year’s Hellickson (i.e. everyone just waiting for him to be called up).

18. Jordan Lyles – RHP – HOU: An innings eater who could be up 7.5 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 on a poor team. Not exciting, but should have the chance. Finished his 2010 season in Triple-A. Very close to making opening day roster. For further details, see Scouting the Unknown.

19. Julio Teheran – RHP – ATL: The new Hellickson. For further details, see Scouting the Unknown.

20.a. Matt Moore – LHP – TBR: I am putting Moore and McGee as 20a and 20b due to the fact they both could help in the majors at some point in 2011, Moore as a starter and McGee as a stud reliever. I like Moore’s upside more as he starts. For further details, see Scouting the Unknown.

20.b. Jake McGee – LHP – TBR: For further details, see 1/8th inch above. Throws a mid 90′s fastball and tops at 98 MPH.

21. Craig Kimbrel – RHP – ATL: Another Carlos Marmol and has inside edge on the closer job. Could put up 100 Ks in 70 innings.

22. Matt Dominguez – 3B – FLA: Comparisons to Jeff Cirillo and Mike Lowell make him intriguing. Slightly above-average defense with a solid hitting approach. Could he be another Melvin Mora? Possibly. Won’t hit for significantly high average but could provide deep league value.

23. Brandon Allen – 1B – ARI: Technically not a rookie, but I feel warrants a ranked position (he’s 19 at-bats from having rookie eligibility). Has great power potential deep in the draft. For further details, see Grey’s Brandon Allen, 2011 Fantasy Sleeper.

24. Kyle Drabek – RHP – TOR: The prized pitching prospect that Toronto received in the Roy Halladay trade. I envision him producing a 7.0 K/9 and a 3.2 BB/9 in about 100 innings in the majors.  Grey took a look at Drabek’s fantasy prospects when he was called up.

25. Brandon Belt – 1B/OF – SF: The resigning of Aubrey Huff significantly impacts Belt’s road to the show. Nevertheless, a player that strikeouts out as often as he walks with slightly above-average power (think 20 to 25 home runs) shouldn’t be repressed for long if Huff or Nate Schierholtz struggle. For further details, see Scouting the Unknown.

26. Trayvon Robinson – OF – LAD: I have to give props to Jason Grey as he alerted me to this name, and the fact that the Dodgers are struggling in left field. Robinson has great speed and slight power. Think 10/40 with a .280 average as ceiling over a full season.

27. Nick Weglarz – OF – CLE: If he’s healthy over a full season, has 20 to 25 home run power potential with a high OBP, Sickels’ think he could get 100 walks in a season. Doesn’t play great defense nor is there much room in the Indians’ outfield.

28. Kyle Gibson – RHP – MIN: Making stops at three levels of the minors, reaching Triple-A, Gibson is another innings eater like Jordan Lyles. The epitome of a Twins pitcher. For further details, see Scouting the Unknown.

29. Chris Carter – 1B – OAK: Great power potential but has struggled to hit advanced pitching and struggled during his major league debut. For further details, see Scouting the Unknown or Grey’s Chris Carter, 2011 Fantasy Outlook.

30. Casey Kelly – RHP – SD: Great upside, but might be nothing more than a number two starter on an average team. For further details, see Scouting the Unknown.

31. Alex White – RHP – CLE: More of a groundball pitcher than a strikeout pitcher. Throws a 91 to 95 MPH fastball with great sink, a splitter and slider. Threw 104 innings at Double-A in 2010, could be a midseason call-up.

32. Randall Delgado – RHP – ATL: The forgotten pitching prospect in Atlanta. Delgado has a mid-90s fastball, a potential plus curveball and potential plus changeup. Still young, turns 21 on February 9th and projectable (6’3” and 180 lbs).

33. Anthony Rizzo – 1B – SD: I don’t buy him playing in the majors on opening day, that and they signed Brad Hawpe to start the year. There are still some hitting mechanics he needs to work on. For further details, see Scouting the Unknown.

34. Wilson Ramos – C – WAS: Received in the Matt Capps trade to the Twins. Ramos is an underrated catcher who has plus “raw” power, good contact skills, and good defense. With Ivan Rodriguez aging, Ramos may get his chance sooner rather than later.

35. Rudy Owens – RHP – PIT: In my Pittsburgh Pirates, 2010 Minor League Review I stated, “This is who I am extremely excited about … Throwing a 88 to 90 MPH fastball, a changeup – his best pitch – and a ‘slurvy curveball’ doesn’t speak of a dominating pitcher. Baseball America calls him the, ‘classic crafty lefthander.’” That was the recipe for Travis Wood (who I conveniently cut out of that quote).

36. Tanner Scheppers – RHP – TEX: A mid-90s fastball and a power curveball, Scheppers was everyone’s favorite reliever to be called up in 2010. Never happened, but now everyone is expecting him to make the opening day roster. Has trouble with command but 10 K/9 potential and, as everyone knows, strikeouts are fantasy baseballer’s crack. For further details, see Scouting the Unknown.

37. Andy Oliver – LHP – DET: Quintessential pitching prospect, clean mechanics, low-to-mid 90s fastball, a cutter, a curveball and changeup. Pitched 22 innings in five starts for the Tigers in 2010. The Tigers have a shallow rotation and I could see Oliver helping out from day one.

38. Brent Morel – 2B/3B – CHW: Morel is the James Loney of a third base prospect; good defense, solid hitting, but lacking game changing power (e.g. 15 to 20 home run ceiling).

39. Hank Conger – C – LAA: With the way Mike Scoicia treats hitting catchers, I’m not sure Conger will get a long look. Statistically is a Joe Mauer-lite. Solid hitting, good plate discipline, but a lot left to be desired.

40. Dayan Viciedo – 1B/3B – CHW: Good power, doesn’t walk often and has below-average defense. Did have a successful 104 at-bats in the majors this year, but his 25:2 K:BB is scary. I don’t see him having great success in the near future, barring a lucky BABIP run. For further details, see Scouting the Unknown.

41. Scott Cousins – OF – FLO: Considered to have a high ceiling, second highest in the Marlins farm system behind Mike Stanton. Cousins has 20/20 potential, more realistically a 20/10 type player.

42. Zach Braddock – LHP – MIL: Should anchor a bullpen with John Axford. Throws a mid-90s fastball and a power/sharp slider. Great strikeout pitcher, career 11.8 K/9 in the minors (281 strikeouts in 214 innings).

43. Corey Luebke – LHP – SD: Throws a low 90 to 92 MPH fastball, a solid slider, and a changeup. Luebke isn’t a strikeout pitcher. Ceiling is a number three starter. Helps that he throws in Petco. Should get a shot before Simon Castro.

44. Ivan Nova – RHP – NYY: Personally, I think his 2010 in the majors was a mirage. You can’t pitch in the AL East with a 5.6 K/9 and a 3.6 BB/9 in the majors, or a 6.3 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 career numbers in the minor league. Nevertheless, he has the inside track at a rotation spot for the Yankees. For further details, see how the media bought into the same hype as J.A. Happ in 2009.

45. Tyler Flowers – C – CHW: A poor 2010 season, marked with a career low.283 BABIP, at Triple-A really hurt Flowers prospect status. Baseball America states he has “light-tower power,” and “strong plate discipline.” A.J. Pierzynski signed a new deal, so Flowers will have to play second fiddle for at least the next two years.

46. Mark Trumbo – 1B – LAA: Trumbo is having a hard time playing any other position but 1st with positive results. And Kendry’s there.  Trumbo has hit well in the minors, and was atop the minor league home run leader boards this past season. Then again, Brandon Wood hit at the Angels’ Triple-A affiliate in the past. For further details see Scouting the Unknown.

47. Jeff Locke – LHP – PIT: A left-handed Jordan Lyles? Pretty darn close.

48. Jordan Walden – RHP – LAA: The last of the relievers with good strikeout potential (8.2 K/9 career in minors). Helps that he throws a “heavy 90 to 94 mph fastball … [and] a mid-80s slider.” Baseball America has already pegged him as late-innings reliever with “his power fastball/slider combo.”

49. Daniel Descalso – 2B – St.L: Average across the board, Descalso is a Felipe Lopez type MI with 10/10 upside.

50. Martin Perez – LHP – TEX: Much like Tyler Flowers, his 2010 season was disappointing. He did have a 9.1 K/9 rate, but combined with a 4.1 BB/9 and a .368 BABIP he was flirting with disaster. The upside, he did have a 4.24 FIP (nearly 1.50 point better than ERA) and a low LOB% of 62.6%. For further details see Scouting the Unknown.

Honorable Mentions
In no particular order: Eric Hosmer (1B, KC); Arodys Vizcaino (RHP, ATL); Jason Kipnis (2B, CLE); Mike Trout (CF, LAA); Fernando Martinez (CF, NYM); Lance Lynn (RHP, St.L); Jenry Mejia (RHP, NYM); Chris Marrero (1B, WAS); Jerry Sands (1B, LAD); Jeremy Jeffress (RHP, KC); Mike Montgomery (LHP, KC); John Lamb (LHP, KC); Danny Duffy (LHP, KC); Derrick Robinson (CF, KC); Christian Friedrich (LHP, COL); Michael Taylor (OF, OAK); Dee Gordon (SS, LAD); Grant Green (SS, OAK); Ben Revere (OF, MIN); Juan Francisco (3B, CIN); Mat Gamel (3B, MIL); Paul Goldschmidt (1B, ARI); Bryan Peterson (OF, FLA); Wilin Rosario (C, COL); Ivan DeJesus Jr. (SS, LAD); Zach Stewart (RHP, TOR); Michael Burgess (OF, CHC); Carlos Peguero (OF, SEA); Tony Sanchez (C, PIT); Nick Hagadone (LHP, CLE); Devin Mesoraco (C, CIN); Alex Liddi (3B, SEA); Jacob Turner (RHP, DET); Jaff Decker (OF, SD); Brett Jackson (CF, CHC); Chris Archer (RHP, TBR); Jarrod Parker (RHP; ARI); Derrick Norris (C, WAS); Yunesky Maya (RHP, WAS); Chris Withrow (LHP, LAD)

Pittsburgh Pirates 2010 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America (2010)
2010 (16) | 2009 (18) | 2008 (26) | 2007 (19) | 2006 (19) | 2005 (18) | 2004 (11)

Record of Major and Minor League Team(s)
MLB: [57 – 105] NL Central
AAA: [71 – 72] International League – Indianapolis
AA: [82 – 60] Eastern League – Altoona
A+: [76 – 62] Carolina League – Bradenton
A: [65 – 74] South Atlantic – West Virginia
A(ss): [33 – 42] New York Pennsylvania League – State College
R: [29 – 30] Gulf League

The Run Down
After another “they are who we thought they are,” (thank you Denny Green) type of season for the Pirates, 2011 does pose a few bright spots. The 2010 season saw several prospects graduate with varying success, most notably, Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and Neil Walker. You could call it the year of the [rookie] hitter in Pittsburgh. The 2011 season should bring along the year of the pitcher. With Jeff Locke and Rudy Owens being the main rookies to keep an eye on, along with the infamous Daniel Moskos as a reliever. Don’t fret, Tony Sanchez wasn’t forgotten, just not 2011 fantasy season ready. Oh, and you can catch a Manny Machado MLB scouting Report here – he won’t be ready for a couple years. This young squad has the ability to have more than Andrew McCutchen shine in 2011. Pitching will still be the struggle even with Owens and Locke, but the hitters – that graduate in 2010 – have the best upside for the 2011 season.

Graduating Prospects
#1 (3B) Pedro Alvarez; #2 (RF) Jose Tabata; #4 (RHP) Brad Lincoln; #21 (RHP) Dan McCutchen; #26 (2B) Neil Walker;

Arizona Fall League Players Scottsdale Scorpions
Pitchers – (LHP) Justin Wilson
Hitters – #3 (C) Tony Sanchez; #29 (2B) Josh Harrison; #22 (SS/OF) Jordy Mercer; #7 (LF – LAD) Andrew Lambo

Players of Interest
Hitters
#5 Chase d’Arnaud | 2B/SS | D.o.B: 1-21-87 | Stats (AA): .247/.331/.377 | 530 AB | 48 XBH | 6 Hr | .130 ISO | 33/7 SB/CS | 102:56 K:BB | .293 BABIP
The older brother of Travis d’Arnaud, Chase plays a sound defensive game, usually playing more shortstop than second base; at shortstop he has solid range and strong arm. Scouts differ on his final position stating his range may be too limited for shortstop at the major leagues. With below average power and scouts stating that his strength is his on-base skills, d’Arnaud may be nothing more than a middle infield flier, or, deep breathe, a utility player.

Alex Presley | OF | D.o.B: 7-25-85 | Stats (AA/AAA): .320/373/.494 | 518 AB | 53 XBH | 12 Hr | .174 ISO | 13/8 SB/CS | 75:41 K:BB | .385 BABIP (AA); .330 BABIP (AAA)
I don’t have much information on Presley beyond the numbers. He did have 25 insignificant major league plate appearances in September. With a loaded outfield, Presley is poor man’s Denard Span at best. Most of his stats are inflated with high BABIP, so don’t expect much from him if given a call up due to injuries.

Matt Hague | 1B | D.o.B: 8-20-85 | Stats (AA): .295/.375/.442 | 509 AB | 45 XBH | 15 Hr | .147 ISO | 3/6 SB/CS | 62:61 K:BB | .310 BABIP
Just like Presley, I only have the numbers to work with. Hague appears to have good plate-discipline combined with boring power at first base. Not overly lucky (.310 BABIP), nor exciting, Hague reminds me of James Loney, expect I don’t know if he plays good defense. With Lyle Overbay and Steve Pearce/Garrett Jones, I don’t see Hague getting much time in the majors until September.

Pitchers
#9 Rudy Owens | LHP | D.o.B: 12-18-87 | Stats (AA): 7.9 K/9 | 1.4 BB/9 | 150 IP | 2.46 ERA | 2.95 FIP | .98 WHIP | .7 Hr/9 | 7.4 H/9 | .280 BABIP
This is who I am extremely excited about. No, he may not pitch until the mid-summer, but he could be this year’s Travis Wood. Throwing a 88 to 90 MPH fastball, a changeup – his best pitch – and a “slurvy curveball” doesn’t speak of a dominating pitcher. Baseball America calls him the, “classic crafty lefthander.” I call him a midseason sleeper barring injury.

#13 Jeff Locke | LHP | D.o.B: 11-20-87 | Stats (A+/AA): 8.7 K/9 | 1.6 BB/9 | 144 IP | 3.56 ERA | 3.37 FIP (A+); 2.95 FIP (AA) | 1.15 WHIP | .7 Hr/9 | 8.7 H/9 | .372 BABIP (A+); .280 BABIP (AA)
Received in the Nate McLouth trade in 2009, Locke might be the best piece in return. Baseball America calls him a “hard-throwing lefty.” Locke throws a 91 to 94 MPH fastball with “heavy sink,” a “decent” curveball, and an improving changeup. Statistically, Locke’s seasons were identical at High-A and Double-A with 8.7 K/9 at each level, with similar control (1.5 BB/9 at A+; 1.9 BB/9 at AA); innings were split as follows: 86 1/3 IP at High-A and 57 2/3 IP at Double-A. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start a major league game in 2011 during the late summer (i.e. August).

#30 Dan Moskos | LHP | D.o.B: 4-28-86 | Stats (AA): 9.4 K/9 | 3.5 BB/9 | 41 1/3 IP | 1.52 ERA | 2.50 FIP | 1.02 WHIP | .0 Hr/9 | 5.7 H/9 | .261 BABIP
Moskos is the infamous prospect that was picked ahead of Matt Wieters because they didn’t want to pay. Well, Wieters is in the majors with productions nowhere near the hype while Moskos struggles in the minors. Moskos dominated Double-A with the aide of a .261 BABIP and a strong strikeout rate (9.4 K/9). However, Triple-A was a different story.

• AAA: 9.3 K/9 | 10.4 BB/9 | 17 1/3 IP | 19 games | 2.65 WHIP | 1.6 Hr/9 | 13.5 H/9 | 4.27 BABIP

That’s not pretty. He’s a two-pitch power reliever throwing a 95 MPH fastball and a power slider. Upside is a closer, or back end starter.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
#3 Tony Sanchez | C | D.o.B: 5-20-88 | Stats (A+): .314/.416/.454 | 207 AB | 21 XBH | 4 Hr | .140 ISO | 2/1 SB/CS | 41:28 K:BB | .367 BABIP
Baseball America calls him an “outstanding defensive catcher with soft hands,” along with having a “strong arm” and “good ball-blocking skills.” Another grammatically confusing sentence brought to you by Baseball America, “[Sanchez] should have solid-average power.” Translated, Sanchez could hit 10 to 15 home runs and looks like Jose Molina with lesser defense.

#6 Starling Marte | CF | D.o.B: 10-9-89 | Stats (A+): .315/.386/.432 | 222 AB | 21 XBH | 0 Hr | .117 ISO | 22/8 SB/CS | 59:12 K:BB | .424 BABIP
A five-tool prospect, Marte has plus-plus speed that translates to some steals and good defense in center field. His swing produces a fair amount of line-drives. Still very raw and statistically relied upon an unstable .424 BABIP to increase his slash line. There are still to many questions to make a fair comparison.

Pitchers
#7 Tim Alderson | RHP | D.o.B: 11-3-88 | Stats (A+/AA): 5.9 K/9 | 2.8 BB/9 | 128 1/3 IP | 6.03 ERA | 4.83 FIP (A+); 4.47 FIP (AA) | 1.55 WHIP | 1.1 Hr/9 | 11.2 H/9 | .333 BABIP (A+); .345 BABIP (AA)
I once wrote a Scouting the Unknown article praising Alderson. Now, I might have to say that Alderson was a cheap price for the Giants to receive Freddy Sanchez. Alderson has a downward trending strikeout rate, and this year was the worst at 5.9 K/9. The control is still there, but he isn’t fooling anyone now. Also, he is giving up too many home runs (1.1 Hr/9) along with too many hits (11.2 H/9). Still young, I’m not going to sing praises for this prospect until he can dominate a level. Scouts noticed decreased velocity during the 2009 season. There are more red flags than in China. There are a few bright spots. He had extremely low LOB percentages (LOB%: 55.4 % at High-A; 65.2% at Double-A; normal is about ~70%). Beyond this, I would steer clear while he tries to rebound at Double-A again in 2011.

#15 Bryan Morris | RHP | D.o.B: 3-28-87 | Stats (A+/AA): 8.3 K/9 | 2.6 BB/9 | 133 2/3 IP | 3.03 ERA | 2.01 FIP (A+); 3.87 FIP (AA) | 1.21 WHIP | .6 Hr/9 | 8.3 H/9 | .301 BABIP (A+); .316 BABIP (AA)
Morris was received in the Jason Bay trade. He throws a 91 to 93 MPH fastball that touches 95 MPH, a plus-curve and a mediocre changeup. At this point, he is more exciting than Alderson. There are injury concerns in his past, and a few character blemishes due to a combative/competitive nature. Should not be in the majors until the end of the 2011 season.