Fantasy Baseball Advice

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Los Angeles Dodgers preview.)

By the end of last year, the big story with the Dodgers veteran players versus the young talent that the Dodgers were stocked with. This culminated in the completely absurd story that Matt Kemp wasn’t immature because he moved a trash can in front of his locker. In the end though, the kids won. At least four of the Dodgers starters on opening day this year will have less than two years of big league service time, and it looked like it was going to be five until Andy LaRoche was injured in Spring Training. Juan Pierre likely starting over Andre Ethier is still being used as an example of the Dodgers veteran fetish, but is there any team in the world that would bench a guy when they still owe him 36 million dollars? I wasn’t sure if the Dodgers were really committed to their youth movement at the end of last season, but after an offseason where no valuable young players were traded away, I believe that the Dodgers front office is on the right track.

Now, the Dodgers problem isn’t finding play time for their young players, it’s about knowing how the team will perform. Close to every starter for the Dodgers carries some major baggage with him, all of which has season ruining potential. Rafael Furcal was absolutely terrible last year after never really recovering from colliding with Jason Repko in Spring Training. Can he be a top level shortstop again? Jeff Kent is being expected to be a middle of the order run producer yet again this year, but only 10 players have ever had an OPS over .800 in 500 plate appearances at age 40. James Loney is almost a lock hit over .300 this year, but does he have enough power for a first baseman? You can point to his home run every 23.47 at bats in his big league career and say yes, but you could also look at his home run every 66.55 at bats in the much more hitter friendly AAA Las Vegas and say no.

Matt Kemp is seen as the Dodgers biggest hitting prospect, but his batting average last year was a fluke, a .411 batting average on balls in play is completely unsustainable, and his power is almost entirely hypothetical. Outside of Vero Beach, the most home
run friendly park in all of baseball, Kemp has never hit more than 17 home runs in a full season. Without much plate patience, Kemp can hit .280 and be a below average hitter. You can still probably pencil him in for close to a 20-20 season, but he hasn’t shown you can count on him to carry team.

The pitching staff faces similar questions. Brad Penny had a miracle season last year that saw his strikeout and walk rates plummet from his career norms, but was still one of the most valuable pitchers in the NL because he allowed only nine home runs last year. Since it’s very difficult for even extreme ground ball pitchers to keep the ball in the park like that, Penny’s numbers will probably take a huge step down last year and ruin more than one fantasy team. Derek Lowe has been very consistent in his three seasons with the Dodgers, but he didn’t throw 200 innings for his first time as a starter and could be the sign that he’s starting to age. Can Esteban Loaiza bounce back from injury and pitch effectively without Oakland’s spacious outfield? Will Jason Schmidt and Hong-Chih Kuo be able to ever throw a pitch while healthy? Much like the offense, almost every member of the Dodgers pitching staff has a huge question mark around him.

The Dodgers major acquisitions this offseason continue the trend. Andruw Jones has almost wrapped up his spot in the Hall Of Fame at age 31, but last year he was less valuable offensively than Juan Pierre last year and reported to camp looking like he misinterpreted his doctor’s instructions to drink nothing but milkshakes. Hiroki Kuroda received the highest annual salary out of any pitcher in this year’s free agent class, but he lacks the numbers in Japan that Daisuke Matsuzaka, or even Kei Igawa had. There’s a good chance that he won’t be all that effective here in the states. These questions keep adding up and a little bad luck can easily break the team.

Despite all of the belief that proven veterans provide stability the only consistent players the have this year all fall under the less than two years of service time umbrella. Dodgers this year will be part of the Dodgers young core. Russell Martin has already established himself as one of the top four catchers in baseball and shows no sign of stopping. Chad Billingsley solved the control problems that plagued his rookie season and could very well be the Dodgers best starter this year. If Andre Ethier can get playing time, he can provide average numbers for a corner outfielder with strong defense. Jonathan Broxton is arguably the most dominant setup man in baseball and would probably be the closer on 25 other teams. The Dodgers need to ride players like these to get through some of the issues that are sure to crop up this year.

The Dodgers have so many players with upside that it’s almost impossible for them to all fail at once. If a few of them succeed, the team will put up a win total in the high 80s and have a good shot at the NL West pennant. However, it wouldn’t shock me at all if the team finished under .500 or won a 100 games, it all depends on how the ball bounces.

Andrew Grant writes about the Dodgers at truebluela.com. He’s a stat dork and is very bad at promoting himself in a two sentence blurb.

Participated in my first league last night. It was a 16 team H2H league, which had all kinds of fangled rules, hitting (R, 1B, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, SB, BB, TB, AVG) and the other (IP, W, CG, SV, K, HLD, ERA, WHIP, QS) that was organized by Bleeding Blue and Teal: a Seattle Mariners blog. Am I secretly a fan of the Mariners? Nope, but I hadn’t joined a H2H league yet and they had an opening so there I was. Since this league is for and by Mariners’ fans, I expected Ichiro to go in the first round (nope), Bedard in the second (yup) and Kenji to be someone’s utility (nope). It turned out to be less “root root for the home team” than I originally thought (though there is a team named, Olerud’s Main Dude). Anyway, here’s my team:

1.      (4)      José Reyes      SS
2.     (29)     Álex Ríos     OF
3.     (36)     Adam Dunn     OF
4.     (61)     Corey Hart     OF
5.     (68)     Alex Gordon     1B,3B
6.     (93)     Edwin Encarnación     3B
7.     (100)     John Maine     SP
8.     (125)     Jeff Kent     2B
9.     (132)     Jhonny Peralta     SS
10.     (157)     Matt Capps     RP
11.     (164)     Carlos Delgado     1B
12.     (189)     Adam Wainwright     SP
13.     (196)     Jonathan Broxton     RP
14.     (221)     Brandon Lyon     RP
15.     (228)     Carlos Ruiz     C
16.     (253)     Zack Greinke     SP,RP
17.     (260)     Pat Neshek     RP
18.     (285)     Manny Parra     RP
19.     (292)     Mike Jacobs     1B
20.     (317)     Jon Rauch     RP
21.     (324)     Franklin Gutiérrez     OF

Here’s what I was thinking in various rounds:

1. Can’t believe Reyes is falling to me. He’s an automatic #2 for me, even with this league’s rules. Wow, Pujols went sixth. He’s putting in a good spring, but that injury could be killer. Matt Holliday fell to seventh; that’s who I was planning to take if Reyes didn’t fall to me.

2. 16 teams… Ugh, this is going to take forever to get back to me. (Actually, I thought this every round.) Granderson’s goes 17th? Well, it wouldn’t have been me. Beltran goes 19th, not liking that pick. Peavy 20th, have to like that value, no matter how much I devalue pitching. Bedard goes 22nd (Webb goes 30th); there’s some hometown bias. At 29, I’m more than happy to grab Rios.

3. First off the board in the third round, George Sherrill. Then went—Wait! What? Okay, I probably would’ve taken Percival over Sherrill and maybe 300 other players, but it’s definitely a way to go. (I’ll see if I can get the Sherrill owner to write a guest post about why he didn’t take Jamie Walker in the fourth round to handcuff Sherrill.) Now that I had Reyes and Rios, I felt I needed some wombat, so I went with Dunn. At this point, I started to think I was going to wait a while for pitching and focus on Holds, Saves, ERA and WHIP. Lots of names went this round that I was glad to be no part of: Mauer, Roberts, Byrnes, Russell Martin, Manny and Beckett.

4. I could have gave birth to an elephant in the time it took my to draft again. I went with Corey Hart (61). Markakis went at 57; I was pissed. Atkins went at 59; I was equally po’d. I almost took Konerko or Adrian Gonzalez because I felt like I could have used a bit more pop, but both of these schmohawks have as many negatives as positives with some of the categories we’re playing with in this league.

5. Alex Gordon! Any daily readers of the site knew I was going to take him. There were a lot of names on the board I could’ve opted for. But none gave me the 20/20 balance I see Gordon putting together. If nothing else, my team is balanced. Except of course for my pitching…

7. With the 100th pick overall, I took Maine. Leaguemates seemed amused by this choice, but the only names on the board (pitching-wise) that were close in my book were Hill, Shields, Dice-K and Javier Vazquez. All are in the AL, except Hill. Also, Maine and Hill have the most upside. Here’s Maine’s numbers from last year, 191.0 IPs/15 Wins/1 CG/180 Ks/3.91 ERA/1.27 WHIP/17 QS. At 26 years old, on arguably the best offensive team in the NL? I think I made the right choice. But Hill was very, very close. Shea got a slight nod and the winds at Wrigley scared me away…

13. All I had was Capps (10) at this point for relievers so I figured I needed to be aggressive in trying to get holds and saves with the same guys so I targeted relievers that could conceivably get saves or holds. Worse case scenario being I only get one of the two. Remember this league weighs them equally, so why not take the best guy rather than the one most likely to get saves? So I passed Wood, Gregg, Jones and Borowski for Broxton. (I would have passed on Sherrill here too, but he went in the third round.)

14. Then I grabbed Brandon Lyon next because if his spring training continues into the season Tony Pena’s going to be the closer real soon and Lyon will be relegated to a Holds position. And if Lyon gets some saves, so be it. It’s a win-win. Later, I grabbed Rauch and Neshek. Again, I was always taking the best guy on the board and the guy who will get Holds and could possibly get saves. If I went for Jones, Gagne, Borowski or Gregg there was a chance I would get saves, but I can’t imagine these guys ever becoming the setup men.

15. Carlos Ruiz! Do I have to say more? At 228? Are you kidding me? Joking aside, Varitek was taken right after him and I almost took Varitek but… I love me some Ruiz. Here comes 17/10. Okay, maybe 14/7, but I’ll take it.

19. Mike Jacobs with the 292nd pick? I can’t imagine how he fell that far considering how deep this league is, but there he was. Honestly, I try to avoid hitters towards the end of a draft, but when Jacobs is looking at you almost 300 picks in, you gotta.

20. Another hitter? Yes, but Franklin Gutiérrez is 25 and about to get the right field job on one of the best offensive AL teams. Gutiérrez could go 70/20/80/.270/20 in the ninth hole. Not to mention how deep this league was, some of the names that were picked at the end of this draft were Kendall, Jack Wilson, Tony Gwynn (I think Junior), Noah Lowry (scheduled to start throwing in a month) and some catchers (for people who punted).

Tonight’s an ‘pert league with a bunch of fantasy writers so I’ll be filling you again on Thursday. Until then, how do you think I did on this draft?

So far we’ve looked at the overall top ten and the top twenty, the top twenty catchers and 1st basemen. Today we look at where to draft the top twenty 2nd basemen for 2008. Second base has been historically weak for fantasy, with some experts saying at last year’s draft that 2nd base was weaker than catcher. Well, that turned out to be a wrong. In 2008, experts have changed their tune dramatically. So when people start amping up hype on a position is when you need to tone your excitement down. Sure, there’s some quality 2nd basemen in this year’s draft, just know a lot of them come with caveats. If you want to see how they stacked up on our 2007 Player Rater, click here.

1. Chase Utley – I’m unabashedly a fan. See the top ten for his projections.

2. Robinson Cano – Granted, the pre/post All-Star splits are an unpleasant trend, but who cares if at season’s end the numbers are there. Plus, I love the increase on his HRs and RBIs from ‘06 to ‘07. He’s not going to hit .342 like he did in ’06, but at his young age and in the Yankees lineup, I see the absolute safest 2nd basemen after Chase. You won’t have to draft him insanely high and you can still get numbers. If you need speed, you’ll have to look elsewhere though. Projections: 100/25/100/.295/3

3. B.J. Upton – The most upside on this list with the ability to jump to the late 1st round next year. His BABIP was leprechaunian so the average will drop a bit, but he’s a young Soriano. Speed, power, quick wrists. Projections: 100/30/85/.280/27

4. Brandon Phillips – I kind of wanted to drop him down even more to emphasize how much caution you need to take with Phillips. I’m just going to point out one negative. In 650 ABs, he walked 33 times and struck out 109 times. He’s got speed; he’s in a great hitting park. He will not hit .288 again. At the first sign of struggle, he starts swinging for the fences and he goes into a deep funk. Hitters who don’t take walks fall into slumps. Do yourself a favor and let someone else draft Phillips. Projections: 80/19/75/.240/25 and is benched in July because his slump is “all in his head.”

5. Brian Roberts – Honestly, I don’t like him. Never have had him on a team. His numbers are too erratic for my taste. One year 4 homers, next year 18. Career average 29 steals, last year 50. This year he’ll be 30 years old, next year he’ll be 42. His average being in the .290s is about the only thing I would count on. I don’t think 50 steals are coming again. Projections: 105/10/55/.290/30

6. Ian Kinsler – I’m very high on Kinsler. As he moves into the prime of his career, he enters the final year you can grab him at a bargain price. His swing is a bit too upper-cutty for a .300 average but in his park and with his speed, he’s getting you 20/20 by August. Projections (assuming he’s at the top of the order and not at the bottom): 110/25/70/.270/25

7. Rickie Weeks – Too many injuries? Actually, same injury, long time to heal. When you flap your bat like Sheff, a wrist injury is bad news. Hopefully, a year and a half after the wrist surgery will set things right because he could still be a power and speed monster. This is the year he gets himself right. Aside, if Clint Barmes, Rocco Baldelli and Rickie Weeks board your cross-country flight, do you get off? Projections: 100/20/60/.260/30

8. Jeff Kent – Might be the last time you can draft Jeff Kent as the swan song approaches. Luckily, he’s too much of a conceited prick to play past the point he can contribute, so the fact he’s playing in ’08 means he’s going to give his best. With the Dodgers rookies having one more year of experience, I could see a bit of a boon to all of their numbers. Projections: 80/25/90/.300

9. Dan Uggla – Strong candidate to repeat his numbers from last year, minus ten to fifteen runs with the depleted Marlins’ lineup. Unfortunately, one of those numbers he’ll repeat is a sub-.250 average. Average that low over 600 ABs is too taxing on your team. You should try and avoid. Projections: 95/30/80/.245

10. Aaron Hill – I get the sneaky suspicious that Aaron Hill’s Fan Club meetings are not well-attended. Does anyone care about Aaron Hill? I think he’s probably his Mom’s third favorite after her two cats. Anyway, he does have pop in his bat and just now entering his prime years. He could jump five spots by next year or his low OBP could foreshadow a disappointment. Usually I side with the low OBP as a sign of trouble, but I say closer to the former. He’s a young Jeff Kent, I tell ya. Projections: 90/24/85/.280/5

11. Kelly Johnson – It’s disturbing that Bobby Cox benched Johnson against a majority of lefties, because when Cox gets set on something he’s slow to change. Johnson will be sitting there in the later rounds and has an outside shot at 15/15, plus he’s only 26 heading into ‘08. Projections: 85/17/65/.275/12

12. Placido Polanco – If you draft PP, you’re just not trying hard enough. His upside is non-existent. He’s 32 and his best, oft-injured days are behind him. He’ll hit you .310 with nothing else. You’re honestly better off taking Kelly Johnson against righties and filling in Yunel Escobar when the Braves play lefties. It’ll be more productive. The people over at Faketeams.com usually run a great site, but they have Polanco in the fifth position. Peyote? Perhaps. Then again, they have Marcus Giles at 20 and 21. He’s so bad we gotta list him twice! At least they didn’t list Ray Durham. Oh, wait, they did. At #15. Anyway, PP’s Projections: 90/7/65/.310/7 and you’re coming in fifth in your league.

13. Howie Kendrick – Can’t say I’m fully aboard the Kendrick love boat just yet. He tore up a half-season of AAA in ’06. He’s got upside, no doubt. My concern is 21 walks in over 500 at-bats in ’06 and 9 base on balls in ‘07. Scioscia loves to run, or as Rex “The Hud” Hudler says, “Shose plays aggressive!” So playing for Shose could lead to 20 steals for Howie and there’s potential for 15-20 homers, but I’d be very careful. People are loving themselves some Kendrick and he’s going higher than I would take him. I say ’09 is his year to shine. Projections: 70/12/55/.290/15

14. Dustin Pedroia – He’s about as safe as a pick can be without getting anything that exciting. He’ll be driven in plenty and get his share of RBIs because the Sox lineup is Shirley Hemphill-thick. Just don’t ask for too much. Projections: 105/12/60/.300/12

15. Orlando Hudson – O-Dog, as Gracie likes to say, can sure “Pick ‘em.” But if your league doesn’t count putouts, then you’re getting an offensive player about as dull as Jimmy Fallon as a leading man. Orlando seems like a really nice guy though. Nice finishes fifteenth. Projections: 90/10/60/.280/10

16. Kaz Matsui – The Astros will give Matsui the green light when he’s healthy. Last season was a great contract year, don’t bank a return to form, but for cheap steals, you’ll find some here. Projections: 75/3/30/.275/25

17. Mark Ellis – He avoided injuries last year, but the two seasons before, not so much. The A’s decided to make a run for last place with this offseason’s moves and I don’t see Mark Ellis being the guy to lead them back to respectability. He’s barely average with the bat eight-tenths of the year, and he gets hot for two-tenths as the summer heats up. Don’t draft him, then grab him late May from his owner, who by that point, absolutely hates him. You’re welcome. Projections: 75/17/70/.270/7

18. Freddy Sanchez – Senior Contributing Writer Rudy Gamble said the Pittsburgh reporters were dying for Freddy to be mentioned in the Mitchell Report so they could use the headline, “Dirty Sanchez.” That made me giggle. Projections: 75/10/75/.310

19. Asdrubal Cabrera – Really, I could’ve put DeRosa, Vidro or Iguchi at #19, but when you’re drafting this low into a position it’s worth taking a gamble on a young guy. In a half-season of Double A in ’07, Droobs hit 8 HRs and swiped 23 bases. Also, he has strike zone discipline by walking more than he struck out leading to a .383 OBP. What’s not to love? Someone taking DeRosa cause he’s safer. The final rounds is not the time to be safe. You should have been safe early on. Projections: 85/7/50/.300/15

20. Felipe Lopez/Luis Castillo/Julio Lugo – Felipe, Manny Acta doesn’t believe in costing his team an out with a steal. Ugh. Castillo, You’ll get runs and a decent limp. Now that I think about it, I kinda like him more than Polanco. Lugo, The steals were a bit of a surprise on Boston last year. Don’t think the average will be as bad as last year. Hmm, maybe he’s better than Polanco too. Projections: These guys will get you cheap runs and steals. Not much else. Act accordingly.

Tomorrow, the top twenty 3rd basemen.

1. Brandon Phillips
.288/107/30/94/32
Not since Soriano have we seen this power and speed combo from 2nd. For the price you probably paid for Phillips, this guy single-handedly won leagues or, at the least, kept owners right in the mix. I know in one of my leagues the owner who had Phillips easily finished five places above where he should have. Then again, he should have finished last, so it’s a small consolation. Imagine if the Indians hadn’t given up on him — Asdrubal who?

2. Chase Utley
.332/104/22/103/9
And he missed a month. Chances are you picked up someone who was able to add to the above stats. For instance, I picked up Iguchi when the Phillies traded for him, so I had .305/18/3/10/5 for 29 games. Respectable numbers to add to Utley’s final totals. For where you had to draft Utely, he didn’t disappoint. What I really like about Utely is his intensity. You never see him dog it up the first base line. If you’re thinking that doesn’t show up in the final stat line, you’re mistaken. Okay, praises sung…

3. Brian Roberts
.290/103/12/57/50
You’re looking at a career year in steals, a total aberration for runs, and a bit low on the home run front. Looking closer: how can a guy steal fifty bases, bat lead-off and barely crack 100 runs? Pretty tough luck there. I usually stay away from Roberts because he’s a total roll of the die. One year he steals like crazy, one year he cracks a bunch of homers, another year he’s a force in average, another year he breaks his arm in seventeen places. If you gambled on him giving you steals this year, you did well.

4. BJ Upton
.300/86/24/82/22
Another difference maker. Chances are you drafted (or picked off waivers) Upton at a extremely low price. Also, with his injury, you probably had someone else culling stats at his position while he was on your DL. So his position’s numbers should be even better. I don’t fully trust him for next year, but we’ll save that for a future blog.

5. Robinson Cano
.306/93/19/97/4
I have to admit. His year surprised me. I thought he might be lying in the dumpster by the All-Star Break because Yankee fans would be so disappointed with him. But Torre stuck with him through the first half swoon, and he turned it around. But the real question is, did you stick with him? I don’t think I would have, probably would have traded him for thirty cents on the dollar.

6. Placido Polanco
.341/105/9/67/7
Everyone know what being yawnstipated is? It’s when you have to yawn, but can’t. Basically, you’re constipated with your yawning. Polanco yawnstipates me. You want to yawn at his numbers, but he manages to do just enough so you can’t yawn. The .341 is the main reason for the yawnstipation. Usually a high average and not much else is a very good yawnstipater.

7. Dan Uggla
.245/113/31/88/2
How does a 2nd basemen that hits 31 homers end up so low on the list? Batting .245 will do it. This is the first guy on the list that was actually a negative in any category. I don’t like negatives in a category. That low of an average can be really difficult to correct with other hitters. Uggla’s other numbers are buoyant; his average is an anchor. Anchors stop fun.

8. Ian Kinsler
.263/96/20/61/23
I liked Kinsler in the beginning of the year. Know what? I still like him. He struggled mightily for about two months after a torrid start, then he was hurt for over a month. If you substituted in someone for when he was struggling and when he was on the DL, you had a tremendous two months from him. He was easily top 3 at 2nd base when he was playing good.

9. Jeff Kent
.302/78/20/79/1
Again, if you took him out when he was hurt or playing hurt, Kent had a decent enough year. I like his numbers in retrospect more than Uggla. (Don’t like negatives in a category.) You didn’t get anything more than you should expect from him at this stage in his career, but you didn’t get less from him either, which helps.

10. Aaron Hill
.291/87/17/78/4
And I like his numbers better than Uggla’s, as well. (Still don’t like negatives in a category. You heard that already? Yeah, you probably did.) Across the board, Hill gave you a little bit of everything. He didn’t win any leagues, but, what’s just as important, he didn’t lose any leagues either.

Some other guys that didn’t make the list, but I actually wouldn’t have minded on my team last year: Kelly Johnson, Freddy, Pedroia, Wigginton, the Kaz. Then for extended periods of times, Orlando Hudson, Weeks, DeRosa and Brendan Harris definitely helped teams. None of these guys hurt your team to the point you couldn’t capture a title. Going into the season last year, lots of experts were saying that 2nd base might be the weakest position ever. Turned out to be a lot of hot air. Not only was 2nd base not all that weak, but you found some very good value in later rounds.