Fantasy Baseball Advice

It’s the beginning of a new year.  Time to reflect on the year that has passed.  Time to make resolutions in the new year.  Time to hope the Baseball Hall of Fame voters make a resolution to vote better.

Last year’s nomination was a mixed bag for us.  Only one of our 5 nominations made it in (Rickey – the other four were Bert Blyleven, Tim Raines, Mark McGwire, and Tommy John) and one of our ‘nays’ made it in (Jim Rice).  For those who missed our HOF analysis from last year, we do our best to create objective parameters for measuring success at a specific position/role.  Rather than focus on just a player or just those that are on the ballot, we look at all players that filled a specific type of role and analyze everyone outside the Hall of Fame to unearth any perceived injustices.  Last year’s analyses were on (with returning nominees in parentheses):

• Starting Pitchers (Bert Blyleven, Jack Morris)
• Leadoff Hitters (Tim Raines)
• Middle of the Lineup Hitters (Mark McGwire, Andre Dawson, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker)

This entry is going to focus on middle infielders since there are two prominent middle infielders that are on the ballot for the first time (Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin) and one returnee for review (Alan Trammell).  We’ll review Fred McGriff and Edgar Martinez at another time (betting they’re not going to make it this year).

In all, there are 32 middle infielders who are in the Hall of Fame as players. We’re defining ‘Middle infielder’ as anyone who played 2B or SS for over 50% of their games – Robin Yount sneaks in (54% at SS) while Ernie Banks doesn’t (45%).  If you scan through the offensive stats of these 32 players, you’ll find a number of head scratchers.  Great defense and a momentous HR aside, Bill Mazeroski had a .299 OBP.  Joe Posnanski has already expounded plenty on the poetic injustice of having Joe Tinker and Johnny Evers in the Hall (get it – they were in a famous baseball poem and it’s a statistical injustice…).  Even several players who played at HOF levels have dubious counting stats – Lou Boudreau, Tony Lazzeri, Joe Gordon, Travis Jackson, Bobby Wallace, and Phil Rizzuto all fall below 2,000 hits (less than such HOF afterthoughts as Phil Garner and Jay Bell).

The point of this prologue is twofold:

1. Middle infielders shouldn’t be reviewed for the Hall of Fame using standard thresholds like 3,000 hits or 500 HRs.  Guess how many middle infielders passed the 3,000 hit barrier?  Three.  Eddie Collins (a phenomenal 2B for the A’s and White Sox from 1906-1930), Cal Ripken, and Robin Yount.  You can argue Collins is the only true Middle Infielder in the Hall of Fame to reach the mark since Ripken and Yount required position changes to reach the mark.  (Note:  Craig Biggio finished with 3,060 hits and Derek Jeter is at 2,747 by end of 2009).  As for HRs, Ripken has 431 HRs and no other HOF middle infielder has more than 301 (Rogers Hornsby).
2. Middle infielders shouldn’t be reviewed for the Hall of Fame using the statistics of the weakest enshrined players at the position as the ‘floor’.  The bar has to be set higher.  For this post, we’ll generally use the 40th-60th percentile for thresholds (e.g., the 60th percentile for a stat means that only 40% of the enshrined middle infielders met these thresholds).

Below represents a quintile analysis of the stats across the middle infielders.

A couple of quick notes:

• OPS+ – On-base percentage + slugging percentage adjusted for park and era with the average being 100.  This provides a good baseline for a player’s offensive value.  This is not weighted by position and, as you can see from the above chart, a good 30% or so of enshrined middle infielders are BELOW average vs. the average hitter (e.g., Ozzie Smith had an 87 OPS+).
• H+BB+HBP – Counting stats are important for measuring a player’s longevity.  While 3,000 hits is the standard of HOF counting stats, factoring in walks and hit-by-pitches is a better reflection of a player’s ability to get on base.  Even adding in Walks and HBPs, you can see that only about 60% of the enshrined middle infielders passed the magic 3,000 number.
• MVP Shares = This stat from Baseball-Reference.com sums the MVP vote percentages over a player’s career.  I find this more useful than focusing just on MVPs as it rewards players who had a number of seasons that are MVP-worthy.  Good example:  Ryne Sandberg has more MVP Shares than Robin Yount (1.98 vs. 1.8) despite winning one less MVP as he had one more top-5 finish and one of Yount’s MVPs was far from unanimous (1989)

Below are all middle infielders retired as of Dec 2009 that got on base more than 2,500 times and had at least a 100 OPS+ (the ‘excepcion’ made for Dave Concepcion).

Craig Biggio (not eligible until 2012)

Craig Biggio – who isn’t eligible for the ballot until 2012 – guaranteed his first ballot nomination when he passed the 3,000 hit barrier.  The fact that he stuck around an extra year or two to reach the mark will be long forgotten even by #1 fan Bill James and Astros owner Drayton McLane Jr. (renowned here for sponsoring the Brad Ausmus Welfare Program).  Much like Rickey Henderson, Biggio limped to 3,000 hits because he took free passes during many of his plate appearances (including the 2nd most HBPs in history).  The only players who started their career since 1962 who got on base more than Biggio were Barry Bonds and Rickey Henderson (Paul Molitor had 250 more hits but 45 less times on base).  He also hit 668 doubles which is the 5th most of all time – the most for a right-handed hitter.

Vote:  YES

Fun (and potentially fictional) anecdote:  When Craig Biggio and Mo Vaughn were teammates at Seton Hall University in New Jersey, they went by the nicknames Taffy & Pork Roll.  Oddly enough, Biggio was the one called Pork Roll.

Roberto Alomar (first time on ballot)

If you compare Roberto Alomar’s stats compared to the middle infielders in the HOF, his stats are in the top 40% on just about any statistic.  Let’s take the most recent 2B to get voted by the BBWAA into the HOF – Ryne Sandberg.   Despite Sandberg hitting 72 more HRs than Alomar (282 to 210), Alomar had the higher OPS+ (116 to 114).  Alomar crushes him in times on base (3,868 to 3,240), has more RBIs, more Runs, more SBs, more World  Series rings (sorry Cubs fans), and matches him on fielding prowess (10 GGs to Sandberg’s 9).  While Alomar never won an MVP, he finished in the top 6 five times.  So why might voters not vote him in?  He doesn’t have 3,000 hits but if Sandberg can get in with 2,300 hits, how can Alomar be kept out?  His career fell off a cliff after 33 but it wasn’t his fault that he was traded to the Mets.  The only reason I can think of is the whole spitting incident with John Hirschbeck but if Ty Cobb is in there…

Vote:  YES

Fun (and potentially fictional) anecdote:   The Spanish-speaking Alomar was engaged to marry French-speaking tennis player Mary Pierce in a completely non-suspect heterosexual coupling that, alas, did not work out. There has been an infectious amount of chatter about his relationships since then.

Barry Larkin (first time on ballot)

Barry Larkin’s resume is about as good as you’ll find for a shortstop not named Honus Wagner: 116 OPS+, relative longevity for a middle infielder (19 seasons, 3400+ times on base), good glove (3 Gold Gloves), and excellent base-running (379 SBs at an 83% rate).  Two interesting comparisons:

Barry Larkin vs. Cal Ripken – While Ripken has more than double the HRs of Larkin (431 to 198), Larkin actually has a higher OPS+ (116 vs. 112) , BA (.295 vs. .276), OBP (.371 vs. .340), and almost the same SLG (.444 vs. .447).  They both even had a far less successful sibling in the pros.  Factor in Larkin’s superior speed and you’ve got a pretty good case that Larkin was a better player than Ripken.  Ripken’s big advantage?  Durability.  Larkin only played 150+ games in 4 of his 19 seasons.  So Larkin might have been better when healthy but Ripken was more valuable overall.

Barry Larkin vs. Roberto Alomar – Same OPS+ (116).  Same OBP (.371).  Near identical 162 game rates – Larkin 99/15/71/28, Alomar 103/14/77/32.   Multiple Gold Gloves.  It’ll be fitting if they go in at the same time.

Vote:  YES

Fun (and potentially fictional) anecdote:  When Barry Larkin and Chris Sabo were teammates at the University of Michigan, they went by the nicknames Wolverine & Teen Wolf.  Oddly enough, neither were given a cameo in the subsequent movies despite Larkin’s extensive workout routines and Sabo’s extensive commercial work.

Alan Trammell (7th year on ballot – 17.4% in 2009) & Lou Whitaker (no longer on ballot after being dropped off in 2001 with 2.9% of the votes)

It’s only fitting to analyze Trammell and Whitaker together as the double-play combo played together for 19 seasons.  Their statistics are quite comparable and the areas where Trammell has the edge is in batting average (.285 v .276), SBs (17 per 162 G vs. 10), and MVP Shares (1.22 vs. 0.21).  Trammell’s BA advantage loses luster when you realize Whitaker’s higher walk rate put him ahead on OBP (.363 vs. .352).  Whitaker also has an advantage in power (17 per 162 G vs 13) and thus it isn’t surprising that Whitaker beats Trammell in OPS+ (116 vs. 110).  Whitaker was on base 365 more times than Trammell (3,665 vs. 3,300) driven as much by Whitaker’s OBP advantage as Trammell’s knee and ankle injuries that led to him failing to pass 500 plate appearances in his last 6 seasons.

Trammell’s MVP Share advantage could be for a number of reasons but my take is it’s because Trammell’s best years were better than Whitaker’s.  Trammell finished about 130 in OPS+ five times making top 20 in MVP each of those years – the peak being finishing 2nd to George Bell in 1987 despite Trammell having the higher OPS+ (155 vs. 146).  Whitaker only reached 130 in OPS+ twice and never had a season one could argue was a top 3 MVP season.  This could be the reason why Whitaker fell off the ballot while Trammell stayed on – short of hitting the big counting stats, MVP-like seasons are the best bet for getting nominated.

Both were excellent fielders winning multiple Gold Gloves though shortstop is regarded as the harder position.

Given all of the above, I think it’s fair to say that Trammell vs. Whitaker is very close to a draw and it’s near impossible to argue for one to make the Hall and not the other.  That said, do both deserve to make the Hall?

While neither may rank quite as high as Alomar and Larkin, Whitaker and Trammell both would finish in the top 60% of enshrined middle infielders in OPS+, times on base, OBP, and just about every 162 G rate for R/HR/RBI/SB.  More convincingly, here are the retired 2B and SS that have higher OPS+ and times on base than Whitaker and Trammell:

• 2B (5) – Eddie Collins, Charlie Gehringer, Rogers Hornsby, Joe Morgan, Frankie Frisch
• SS (6) – Honus Wagner, Cal Ripken, Luke Appling, Joe Cronin, Robin Yount, Barry Larkin

It would seem that if only 5-6 players at your position were as valuable offensively (as measured by OPS+) for as long (as measured by Times on Base), you deserve to be a Hall of Famer.   But let’s get some perspective using recent inductees who played different positions.  Let’s use Jim Rice (OF), Eddie Murray (1B/DH), and Wade Boggs (3B) for the comparison.

• Retired OF with greater OPS+ and Times on Base than Jim Rice (29) – Most surprising entry -  non-HOFer Ken Singleton.
• Retired 1B with greater OPS+ and Times on Base than Eddie Murray (0)
• Retired 3B with greater OPS+ and Times on Base than Wade Boggs (0)

Jim Rice’s stat is a huge vote for Whitaker and Trammell.  Eddie Murray and Wade Boggs don’t help the case at all.

Final verdict for me is that both players deserve to be in the Hall of Fame.  When you can name only 5-6 players at your position which were clearly more valuable offensively plus had more longevity (with only a couple ever being televised in color) AND you were excellent fielders, I think you deserve to be in the Hall of Fame.

Vote:  YES

Fun (and potentially fictional) anecdote:  Trammell and Whitaker solidified their 1980′s cred by starring as themselves in a Magnum PI episode.  The only more awesome 1980′s cameo by a baseball player – Reggie Jackson on MacGyver (see 33 minute mark).

Willie Randolph (no longer on ballot after being dropped off in 1998 with 1.1% of the votes)

Willie Randolph had a higher OBP (.373) and more times on base (3,528) than Jeff Kent (3,448 / .356) .  Ryne Sandberg too (3,181 / .344).  Shocking, no?

Another fun stat – Randolph had 1,243 walks and 675 strike outs.  Since 1950, there are only 6 players with a better BB/K ratio:  Ted Williams, Jim Gilliam, Richie Ashburn, Stan Musial, Gene Woodling, and Wade Boggs.  Just below Randolph?  Joe Morgan and Ozzie Smith.

While Randolph never won a Gold Glove, he had the misfortune of being in the same league as Frank White (Gold Glove 1977-1982, 1986-1987) and Lou Whitaker (1983-1985).  But using Total Fielding Runs Above Average (Rtot) as a comparison, Randolph’s career total of 114.5 runs above average is better than Whitaker (76.8) and comparable to White (125.6).

It is Willie Randolph’s OBP/Times on Base (and perhaps some fielding consideration) that earned him entry into Baseball Think Factory’s Hall of Merit.

The case for Willie Randolph doesn’t extend too much further than OBP/Times on Base and fielding.  He had little power which counteracted his strong OBP and left him with a 104 OPS+.  He had solid speed (20 SBs per 162 G) but nothing on the level of an Alomar or Larkin.  He had no seasons that look remotely like an MVP season – his 1980 season of 99/7/46/30/.294 when his .427 OBP was only bested by the .390 hitting George Brett (.454 OBP) was his closest.

Voting for Randolph comes down to whether you feel above average OBP and fielding over a long time is HOF-worthy.  I veer on the side of no.  I think that if a player has below-average power, they need to be that much greater in terms of counting stats or fielding.  Ozzie Smith was the best fielder of his time.  Tony Gwynn had over 3,000 hits and an OBP of .388.   Wade Boggs had over 3,000 hits and a ridiculous OBP (.415).  That said, Willie at least deserved to stay on the ballot for more than a year.

Vote:  NO

Fun (and potentially fictional) anecdote:  Willie Randolph grew up in the dangerous Brownsville section of Brooklyn with future NBA star Lloyd ‘World B’ Free.  While Randolph’s last name prevented a similarly creative and philanthropic first name change, he dedicated his omnipresent moustache to the fight against world hunger.

Dave Concepcion (no longer on ballot after 15 years on the ballot from 1994-2008 – highest mark was 16.9%)

The argument seems weak for Concepcion.  His 88 OPS+ is only greater than four middle infielders in the Hall (Rabbit Maranville – 82, Luis Aparicio – 82, Bill Mazeroski – 84, Ozzie Smith – 87).  Maranville is one of those historical picks that look bad in retrospect.  The other three players are all in for their glove.  Concepcion won 5 Gold Gloves and was renowned for the glove but his Total Fielding Runs Above Average for his career is only 48.3.  Ozzie Smith is at 238.7.  Aparicio was at 148.6.  Mazeroski is at 148.1.  The other great-fielding SS of his time – Mark Belanger – was at 238.0.

Based on this, it appears Concepcion was a very good SS but his fielding reputation (perhaps aided by the artificial turf at his home park?), the halo of playing on the Big Red Machine, and playing in a weak SS era gave him more time on the ballot than seems warranted.

Vote:  NO

Fun anecdote:  Dave Concepcion is beloved in his home country of Venezuela and several notable middle infielders such as Ozzie Guillen and Omar Vizquel have worn his #13 in tribute.  This love did not extend to the city of Cincinnati however as WKRP in Cincinnati failed to crack the Venezuelan Nielsen TV ratings during the 1970′s even with the prominent featuring of Charo-like Loni Anderson.

Jeff Kent (not eligible until 2013)

Given that he has significantly more HRs than any other 2nd baseman (377 with Rogers Hornsby second at 301), he’s a Hall of Fame lock.  The RBIs help too as he has the 2nd most career RBIs for a 2nd baseman (behind Hornsby) and has the most 100 RBI seasons (8).  This power is the driving reason why his OPS+ (123) is in the 80th percentile among enshrined middle infielders.

(Note:  The above uses total stats.  If you go by just stats as a 2nd baseman, he’d still be #1 in HRs – 2nd to Ryne Sandberg – and 2nd in RBIs to Nap Lajoie)

His OBP .356 is about average for enshrined middle infielders and his fielding was about league average (his Rtot was -1.4).

Not much question on this one…

Vote:  YES

Fun (and potentially fictional) anecdote:  With his moustache and pension for not taking shit from anyone (ask Barry Bonds and Milton Bradley), it’s not surprising to hear that Jeff Kent dominated the MLB Chuck Norris Award in the late 1990′s/early 2000′s.

Bobby Grich (no longer on ballot after being dropped off in 1992 with 2.6% of the votes)

With only a career average of .266 and 224 HRs, it’s easy to see why Grich fell off the battle in 1992 before the Internet and Sabermetrics changed how many voters valued players.  Growing up in the latter part of the ‘Grich Era’, my sharpest memory of him was sharing a baseball card with Dwight Evans, Tony Armas, and Eddie Murray as the 1981 AL League Leaders in Home Runs.  Pretty impressive for a 2nd baseman I thought.  So did he deserve more HOF consideration?  Definitely.

His OPS+ of 125 was higher than Jeff Kent and, besides his above average power for a 2B, he had an impressive .371 OBP (a good eye balancing out his .266 AVG).  He was a strong fielder – netting 4 Gold Gloves  and a +70 in Total Fielding Runs Above Average.  He never made the top 5 in MVP voting but arguably should’ve won the 1981 MVP (led the league in OPS+).

Taking a look at his era (1970-1986), here are the number of seasons where a 2nd baseman (defined as 50% of games at 2B) had an OPS+ of 130 or more and had 450 plate appearances.  Note that the only other players who are near Grich are Hall of Famers.

• Joe Morgan – 7
• Bobby Grich – 5
• Rod Carew – 3 (note: Carew accomplished this in 1969 and 4 more times during this era playing 1B)
• Ryne Sandberg – 2 (note:  Sandberg accomplished this feat four more times from 1989-1992)
• Davey Johnson – 1
• Bill Madlock – 1
• Willie Randolph – 1
• Lou Whitaker – 1
• Steve Sax – 1

The argument seems to be not whether Bobby Grich was a Hall of Fame 2nd Baseman (because 125 OPS+ and strong fielding is HOF-worthy) but if he played long enough.  He only had 14 full seasons and his 3,056 times on base is a little bit under the 40th percentile of enshrined middle infielders.

Using the same test of “How many players at their position have greater OPS+ and Times on Base?” as I used for Trammell and Whitaker, Grich matches Whitaker’s number with 5 (Eddie Collins, Charlie Gehringer, Rogers Hornsby, Joe Morgan, Nap Lajoie).  Given that only one (Morgan) played post-WWII, I think Grich did enough to warrant HOF enshrinement.

Vote:  YES

Fun (and potentially fictional) anecdote:  Bobby Grich was heartbroken after the 1986 playoff loss to the Boston Red Sox and retired soon after.  The biggest tragedy wasn’t that he never won a World Series – it was that, unbeknownst to Grich, he had been given the role of “Queen Killer” in the Naked Gun script and his retirement led the writers to give the role to Reggie Jackson instead.

The rest of the players I’d vote ‘No’ but here are some quick notes:

Tony Fernandez – Solid hitter and fielder but had so-so power, OBP, and times on base.

Larry Doyle – Deadball Era player who played mostly with the Giants.  Earned an MVP and a #3 finish.  He retired to coach at age 33 when it appears he still had more in the tank (105 OPS+ his final year).  You can make a case he was more valuable than other players voted into the Hall from his era (see Johnny Evers).

Vern Stephens – It’s fitting he played some of his best years with the Red Sox as he was kind of the Nomar Garciaparra of his time.  One of the top hitters in the game from ages 21-30 with 5 top 7 MVP finishes and a ridiculous 3 year stretch where he 29+ HRs and 137+ RBIs.  After that, his career went off the cliff due to injuries – never reaching 400 plate appearances in a season again.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he eventually gets voted in by the Veteran’s Committee given how impressive he was at his peak.

Del Pratt – Solid player in the 1910s and 1920s.  According to The Baseball Page, he was a good fielder too.  Without the longevity stats, hard to give him the thumbs up.

Jim Fregosi – While better known now as the ‘guy the Mets traded Nolan Ryan for’ and as a manager, Fregosi had some pop for a shortstop of his era.  He had 8 straight years of OPS+ above 108 (ages 22-28) and then injuries wore him down.

Dick McAuliffe – Playing 2B and SS for the Tigers from 1960-1975, McAuliffe was a Moneyballer.  Good power (15+ HRs 6 times) and good eye (had 100+ BBs twice).  His OBP (.343) looks a lot better than his BA (.247).  Like a lot of the above players, he just didn’t play long enough (or great enough) to warrant HOF enshrinement.

Jay Bell – Good but rarely great player for a number of years.  Had his career year at 33 when he exploded for 38 HRs.  I remember him being a good fielder but his stats indicate he was closer to average.

Chuck Knoblauch – Less you think that only 2B/SS of earlier eras fell off a cliff at 30, there’s the case of Chuck Knoblauch.  He put together some fantastic years from 23-30 – mostly with Minnesota (with 2 decent years with NYY).  His OBP was above .380 for 6 seasons including two seasons at .424 and .448.  He was solid on the basepaths too, netting 30+ SBs in 7 of those years.  But it seemed like all his skills deteriorated after 30.  He had an infamous case of the ‘yips’ and eventually had to be moved from 2B (where he had been a solid fielder) to LF.  After a ‘transition’ year with the Yanks and a single season with KC, Knoblauch was out of the game at 33.  With perhaps 2-3 more peak seasons and no ‘yips’, he could’ve definitely warranted HOF consideration.

Marty McManus – Another solid middle infielder from the pre-WWII era (1920-1934).  Never had anything resembling an MVP-like season but steady.  Career likely hurt by playing under belligerent manager Biff Tannen.

Davey Lopes – Lopes’ career was completely opposite from anyone else on the list.  Well, not completely opposite.  He did play baseball…but his first full MLB season was at 28(!) and he was putting up solid stats past the age of 40.  Lopes was well-known for his speed (averaging 50 SB per 162 G) and was very efficient at it (83% success rate).  He had a surprising amount of pop for his speed – topping 10 HRs on 7 occasions – but he surprisingly didn’t hit as many doubles as you’d think given that combination (never hit more than 26 in a season – Biggio averaged more than double that from 1998-1999).  Given that Lopes was just an average fielder and had just okay OBP, he’s not really an HOF consideration.  But I’d have liked him on one of my fantasy teams and it would’ve been interesting if he started younger and compiled more counting stats (note: based on minor league performance, he likely would’ve been a quality starter at 26 or 27).

I’m not sure if Jeff Kent will retire. I’m sure his wife doesn’t want him to retire because he seems like he’d be a miserable prick around the house. Why doesn’t this remote work?! She sighs, “You have to turn on the TV first.” Maybe he lands as a DH somewhere in the AL. Either way, Kent prolly won’t be on the Dodgers next year. So that opens 2nd base in 2009 for the Dodgers. This should be filled by Blake DeWitt, no relation to Joyce DeWitt, against righties and Mark Loretta against the occasional lefty. Okay, so what can we expect from Blake DeWitt for 2009 and why is he a fantasy sleeper?

In 2008, Blake DeWitt was rushed to the majors to fill-in at 3rd base prior to the Casey Blake move. He was marginally meh, but never quite eh or feh. He has limited power and speed. Kent could prolly out-homer him even in his 41st year on the planet and Rickey Henderson could still outrun him. Blake’s ideal 2009 has him at about 60/14/75/.275/7. Kelly Johnson just yawned reading those numbers.  Now Blake also has corner and middle eligibility (here’s a list of all the players that have multiple position eligiblity for 2009), and there won’t be many 2nd basemen who come as discounted as Blake in 2009 fantasy drafts. Some of the schmohawks I’ve seen drafted before Blake are Mark Loretta, David Eckstein, Nick Punto, Mark Grudzielanek and Marco Scutaro.  I just vomited in my mouth writing some of those names. So towards the end of your NL-Only drafts or very deep mixed leagues, Blake DeWitt is a good sleeper name to have stashed away.

Guess what time it is? No, not three o’clock. It’s time for this week’s fantasy baseball buy/sell thingiemajig. Dur! As we move closer to the end of the season, I wanted to take this opening section to point out some hard facts. Arod is sleeping with a fifty-year-old lady. Ew! No, wait, that wasn’t what I wanted to point out. I wanted to say it’s now or never. Okay, I said that before, but now it really is. Don’t leave anything on the table. Or put it all on the table. Or whatever that inspirational poster with the guy rappelling a mountain says. If you’re thirty steals out in front of your nearest competition, why are you still starting Brian Roberts? He sucks. He’s not hitting as many home runs as Ty Wiggington. (Okay, he doesn’t suck, because he is hitting for a high average right now. But if you need home runs — big whoop! Or not! Depends on your need.) If you can’t gain any points in saves, why are you carrying seven closers? So my nearest competition can’t get any saves. Oh, well, that actually makes sense. As weird as it is to drop some players (Kinsler!), if they’re not helping you right now, they’re not helping you. You have, like, no time, people! P.O.Y.M.G.S.S. (Put On Your Make Grey Smile Shoes) Anyway, here’s some fantasy baseball players to buy and sell:

BUY

Adam Wainwright – If he stays healthy, he might be the September Cy Young. Unfortunately, it’s a Zelda Rubinstein-sized if. (Which is about a 4′ 11″-sized if.)

Jo-Jo Reyes – Member that Campillo dude. Yeah, Reyes is him minus the innings.

Tom Gorzelanny – Easily could be in the Sell list, because, earlier in the year, he added the third suck in sucky-suck-suck. Since July, he’s been T to the -orrid in the minors at a 2.06 ERA and .91 WHIP. To misquote Wyclef, he’ll be back in September.

Pablo Sandoval – A lot has been made of his weight. Well, there’s a lot there to make of it. Oofa! Let’s just say, if Pablo Sandoval gets a single against the Brewers, leaving him and Prince Fielder both at first, everyone else on the field should shift their weight towards third to avoid a landslide. Might get some starts in front of Benji. He’s got some pizz-op.

Travis Metcalf – Three homers in three starts this week. Could be something, might be nothing. If you’re struggling at corner, you take a flier. He might lose all playing time with Blalock’s return, but as we know from knowing what we know, Blalock will get hurt as soon as he returns.

Juan Salas – Just called up from the minors. Middle relief numbers to make you feel alive with pleasure like a Newport.

Mark Reynolds – The other day I mentioned Reynolds could move to 2nd base when Justin Upton returns. Look at Reynolds’s numbers (77/24/85/.245/8). Now imagine them from a 2nd basemen. That’s almost a top five 2nd basemen and he’s better than Uggla. In keeper leagues, this could be huge.

Alexei Ramirez – As I mentioned in yesterday’s fantasy baseball keeper post, I fell in love with Alexei and I liked it! I hope my girlfriend don’t mind it! (Sorry, that stupid song is still stuck in my head.)

Jeff Kent – Yeah, he’s a douchebag, but he’s been hot since Manny’s come to town. Get involved!

SELL

Clayton Kershaw/Johnny Cueto/Edinson Volquez/Zach Greinke/Jair Jurrjens/Jorge Campillo/Ricky Nolasco/Justin Duchscherer/Mike Pelfrey/Any pitcher that is pitching far too many innings for their arm – I’m not saying you need to drop these guys outright (though I have started dropping a few them. I’m looking at you, Greinke, Campillo and Jurrjens. Also, if I had Dook-sheer, I wouldn’t be expecting anything from him.). You just need to make sure you’re not too reliant on any of them. They might go from usable to having starts skipped in the matter of seconds.

David Price – Could be here by September 1st, might be worth the flier in ’09, he’s not ready yet.

Ian Kinsler – I know this injury hurt you, but there’s not much time left. You can’t be waiting around for him to return.

Chris Carpenter – You might get more from Tim Redding this year. Okay, bad example. But there still has to be more valuable guys on your waiver wire.

Brandon McCarthy – He’s on his way back to claim a Rangers’ rotation spot. In deep leagues, I could see the flier, but I’m not expecting anything from him. That’s not true. I’m expecting him to suck.

Ken Griffey Jr. – He’s looked like Ken Griffey Sr. all year.

Chris Davis – He’s hitting .211 in August with 2 HRs. Could he have a good September? Perhaps, but he’s a K machine. When I told you to pickup Chris Davis in June, I said, “Adam Dunn struckout 101 times in his last full year of the minors. Chris Davis struckout 150 times.” And that’s me cutting and pasting me! Now if Metcalf keeps hitting and Blalock returns and stays healthy, Davis may sit a few games a week. Sorry, but don’t shoot the messenger.

Huston Street – He’s owned in 83% of ESPN leagues. As usual, I assume 97% of ESPN’ers abandon their team so this ownership number means very little, but let’s assume just 7 people actually play ESPN fantasy baseball and out of those 7, 1 person still has Street on their team. That’s one person too many.

Delmon Young has 7 home runs for the season, but 3 in the last seven games. Mouth on the left side of the screen says, “Tor-.” Mouth on the right side of the screen says, “-rid.”  …Torrid. Capital T, lowercase -orrid. (As if there’s any other kind of -orrid.) This is a whole lot better than horrid, which he was the first half of the season. Delmon has jowls of a near-20 HR hitter or so say just about every fantasy baseball ‘pert in the beginning of the year. Composite projections look like 76/17/88/.290/15. That’s Shandler, Baseball Prospectus, Rotowire and our own Rudy Gamble’s Point Shares. (See, we only sound arrogant like we don’t read/listen to any other ‘perts, but that’s not true. We’re just aware you’re not that interested in reading how we come to our conclusions. And even less interested in hearing how you are uninterested.) But right now Delmon Young is at 61/7/52/.290/13. So does this mean all of the ‘perts are wrong on Delmon or will he go on an absolute tear in the final 40 games? I’d say a little bit of both probably. He’ll fall low on RBIs, slightly higher on steals, but HRs can be made up fast and I’m buying that he gets close to 17. Anyway, here’s some players to buy and sell for fantasy baseball:

BUY

Marlon Byrd – Don’t Cha wish your last week was fly like me… Don’t Cha!

Melvin Mora - I’ve never liked Mora. Just doesn’t seem like he cares much. But he’s hitting third on the Orioles (I know, great shakes!) and he’s hit .384 since the All-Star break with 6 Melvins and 32 Moras.

Joey Devine -Season numbers look incredible. How incredible, Grey? Tell us! Okay, but don’t sit on my lap. It’s weird. 32 Ks in 27.2 IP, a .98 ERA and a .98 WHIP. For those that read the FBHOF posts and have an encyclopedic memory, like moi, you won’t need this reminder, but go check out this FBHOF post and read about Eck’s historic season. Identical ERA/WHIP ain’t easy, son. (Not son as in I’m your Dad, but you were just sitting on my lap.)

Brad Ziegler – *shakes fist at defaced poster of Orel Hershiser* Don’t worry, you still got value, Ziegler. A whole lot more than that other German reliever, Heilman.

Jensen Lewis – I love Swensen’s! (Editor’s note: Swensen’s did not pay for Grey’s endorsement. In fact, if they knew, they would probably request Grey keep their name out of his mouth.)

Matt Capps – Only about a week away. If he was dropped in your league, I’d pick him up if you have room. Nope, no room! Sure, just move the camping gear out of the trunk.

Jeff Kent – So everyone pegs this D-Bag to get 17 Hrs, he’s at 11. And that was before Manny. I just grabbed him in a 15 team ‘pert league.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Yes, his first name sounds like a leaky bum, but in August he’s batting .310 with 2 HRs and a 1 steal.

Ty Wiggington – Another hot 2nd baseman. Actually, he’s been hot for a 3rd baseman. Surprising factoid of the day, he’s only 30. I would’ve guessed 37.

Wandy Rodriguez – No Rhyme or Reason, “Yeah, I can talk. Whaddup?” “I’m picking up Wandy.” No Rhyme or Reason, “That makes sense to me.”

Dan Wheeler/Grant Balfour – I’m grabbing Wheeler first, and only after he’s gone am I looking at Balfour. UPDATE: Since I wrote this, the Rays announced Balfour would fill-in. Saves are the bottom line, so he should be the first one grabbed. I still think Wheeler will get a handful of chances.

Jeff Francoeur – As I like to say about one of my female neighbors, “What a bust.” But the other day, he hit his first home run in over month. If you didn’t have Frenchy throughout his razztastic season and he’s sitting on your league’s waiver wire, he could have value in the last 40 games.

Chris Dickerson – Okay, so I touted him here and here in the last day. Get Off My Dickerson And Tell Yo B**** To Come Here. (BTW, **** Weren’t asterisks to look below the post. That was to fill in for “itch.”)

SELL

Jed Lowrie – The newest recipient of the tooting of the Sons of Sam’s Horn. With one home run and zero steals in 122 at-bats, I wouldn’t even be talking about him if he was on any other team.

Chris Young – Looks like a lost season and I’d just drop him to waivers, except in the deepest of leagues.

Jorge Campillo – Getting off here, fellas. Next stop, Pueblo de Wandy Rodriguez.

Phil Hughes – Holy heffin’ heff, ESPN JUST!!! announced that the NY Daily News announced that the Yankees might announce Hughes might take over for Giese. I guess it’s better than their usual announcement that Hank Steinbrenner farted.

D.J. Carrasco – First he played the skinny, cracked out buddy in those teen comedies and now he might take Contreras’s spot in the rotation. He’s worth a flier in AL-Only leagues, that’s about it.

Paul Byrd – Yes, being on the Sox gives him a bit more value. But he doesn’t strikeout anyone. Last year, in nearly 200 innings he K’d 88 guys (only two of those were Adam Dunn, but 16% of them came in interleague). He’s onto some similar yawnstipating numbers this year. He’s given up 23 HRs compared to his schmohawkian 56 Ks. Has he been good recently? Yup. Could he be good against the Jays tonight? Perhaps. In the long run, Koko B. Ware because the Byrd man will kill you.

Troy Percival – After the game, he was seen in crutches (and some fly-ass Zubaz). Percival lost nearly a month with a sore hammy. Now he’s on crutches (in fly-ass Zubaz) as he heads to the DL and he’s old as dog balls. I’d drop him if your DL-spot is Nissan Sentra crowded.

Daniel Cabrera – Member that girl you slept with who bugged out and put together a future photo album, which was pictures of Ken and Barbie posing as you and the girl in the future?  Dooooode! Cabrera’s the pitching equivalent of that crazy ass chick!

Across all of my deeper leagues, invariably Chipper Jones is on one of the top teams. In the shallow leagues, Chipper is buoying teams above fifth place all by myself. Heard the Braves announcers talk about Chipper’s chances at .400. A question that would make more sense is, “What’s Chipper’s chance to get 400 at-bats?” I think he gets there, at-bats that is, not average. He’s a .309 career hitter, but his average has been steadily climbing as he gets older (which is a normal occurrence, batters just get better at knowing what they can and cannot hit). So he could hit .350. But unless you’re struggling with a lot of low average guys, average is, well, average. Chipper’s home runs have been declining. He hit 29 home runs last year, but 12 in April/May, so his early season outburst this season isn’t necessarily a sign of great things.  Of course, everyone’s main concern is his games played. I think you have a better chance of guessing what Joey from The Real World: Hollywood is going to say next than how many games Chipper is going to play. (Sober Joey, “I’m an alcoholic! And I love the albino stripper.” Drunk Joey, “I love everyone, but really love the albino stripper!” Drunker Joey, “I will rip off the albino stripper’s head and toss it into the eight foot aquarium!” Sober Joey, “I wasn’t like this when I came into this house!” Actually, now that I write it out, that’s much more predictable than Chipper Jones’s injury history. But I digress.) So going forward with Chipper, what did we learn from this exercise? The home runs are not going to get into the forties. He will miss some games. He won’t bat .400, but should get to 400 at-bats. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Claudio Vargas – Should be owned in all NL-Only leagues. (And all leagues that require you have a Vargas on your team. But then, Claudio Vargas was probably already on a team.)

Carlos Beltran – The Mets pitching staff and I often sat in the dugout sipping espresso, then afterwards would talk baseball. During batting practice, I discussed open and closed stances with Howard Johnson. We laughed about “high hard ones” and Carlos Beltran punched me in the nose.

Scott Feldman – Looked tremendous today, giving up only one earned run. He was about to be featured in the opening, until I realized he was facing the Mariners. Right now, he’s not that great looking forward. (I mean, he is capable of looking forward, just his stats may not be that good in the future.)

Jeff Clement – He’s one game away from qualifying at catcher in five game leagues. (That means he just caught his fourth game, Einstein.)

Gary Sheffield – He’s moving back to DH. The same DH spot that he said was the reason why he was hitting poorly. I think he’s hurting and just playing around with excuses. He shouldn’t be on any teams at this point.

Nick Johnson – He has a sore wrist. In other news, taco diarrhea burns.

Jim Edmonds – He will force Felix Pie back to Triple-A. Matt Murton better clean off his couch.

Manny Parra – Thank God for the Dodgers’s offense.

Guillermo Mota – Let’s try Torres.

Blake DeWitt – Has the highest average amongst rookies and he just hit his third home run.

Jeff Kent – You know how you can tell when a baseball player is suddenly old, when they look like Luis Gonzalez, but not as agile.

Brett Myers – I mentioned before that Brett Myers and I went to poetry night at The Turtleneck on Philly’s South Side. It was April. Brett had just thrown an eight K performance at the Bank. He said he could have struckout nine. I said it was a good outing, though not a great outing and that’s the way it was for future middle relievers. We laughed over this and Brett Myers punched me in the nose.

Ryan Howard – Barring injury, still looking at 40 home runs as he now sits on 8 after a home run yesterday.

Blaine Boyer – Got the Atlanta save. Just another member of the committee.

Ian Stewart – So far I’ve picked him up and dropped him three times in the last two weeks. (Yes, I am that annoying owner.) My thought process is, I pick him up and hold him for a couple of days. When I need another hitter for a short schedule day, I drop him. If I have him when he is called up, I’m golden. If I don’t have him, then chances are he’s on waivers and at least someone has to use their claim for him. Win-win, in my book. (BTW, that book is titled, “Annoying the Crap Out of Your Opponents When They Don’t Restrict the Amount of Adds and Drops, 7th Edition”)

Scott Downs – Just got his fifth save.

C.C. Sabathia – I think this is closer to the Sabathia you’re going to get this year. I also don’t have him on any teams. Just when you think I’m going right, I go left! Or maybe left-right!

John Lackey – Looked solid in his return with 7 IP, 1.29 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 4 Ks. Pretty far off in the pick the line game.

James Shields – Very solid game in the loss.

Robinson Cano – 4-for-4. His buy low time quickly evaporates as he’s batting .350 with two home runs in May.

Mike Mussina – I mentioned before that I was in St. Petersburg. It wasn’t the first time I had been to Florida. I was there many years ago with Mike Mussina. Mussina had just finished second in the Cy Young voting and we were competing in a Scrabble tournament. He had just pulled the tiles t-h-k-k-o-y-a and I said there was no way he could make a seven letter word from that. He said this is the first time I’ve had two Ks all year. We laughed over this and Mike Mussina punched me in the face.