Fantasy Baseball Advice

I’m not sure if Jeff Kent will retire. I’m sure his wife doesn’t want him to retire because he seems like he’d be a miserable prick around the house. Why doesn’t this remote work?! She sighs, “You have to turn on the TV first.” Maybe he lands as a DH somewhere in the AL. Either way, Kent prolly won’t be on the Dodgers next year. So that opens 2nd base in 2009 for the Dodgers. This should be filled by Blake DeWitt, no relation to Joyce DeWitt, against righties and Mark Loretta against the occasional lefty. Okay, so what can we expect from Blake DeWitt for 2009 and why is he a fantasy sleeper?

In 2008, Blake DeWitt was rushed to the majors to fill-in at 3rd base prior to the Casey Blake move. He was marginally meh, but never quite eh or feh. He has limited power and speed. Kent could prolly out-homer him even in his 41st year on the planet and Rickey Henderson could still outrun him. Blake’s ideal 2009 has him at about 60/14/75/.275/7. Kelly Johnson just yawned reading those numbers.  Now Blake also has corner and middle eligibility (here’s a list of all the players that have multiple position eligiblity for 2009), and there won’t be many 2nd basemen who come as discounted as Blake in 2009 fantasy drafts. Some of the schmohawks I’ve seen drafted before Blake are Mark Loretta, David Eckstein, Nick Punto, Mark Grudzielanek and Marco Scutaro.  I just vomited in my mouth writing some of those names. So towards the end of your NL-Only drafts or very deep mixed leagues, Blake DeWitt is a good sleeper name to have stashed away.

Guess what time it is? No, not three o’clock. It’s time for this week’s fantasy baseball buy/sell thingiemajig. Dur! As we move closer to the end of the season, I wanted to take this opening section to point out some hard facts. Arod is sleeping with a fifty-year-old lady. Ew! No, wait, that wasn’t what I wanted to point out. I wanted to say it’s now or never. Okay, I said that before, but now it really is. Don’t leave anything on the table. Or put it all on the table. Or whatever that inspirational poster with the guy rappelling a mountain says. If you’re thirty steals out in front of your nearest competition, why are you still starting Brian Roberts? He sucks. He’s not hitting as many home runs as Ty Wiggington. (Okay, he doesn’t suck, because he is hitting for a high average right now. But if you need home runs — big whoop! Or not! Depends on your need.) If you can’t gain any points in saves, why are you carrying seven closers? So my nearest competition can’t get any saves. Oh, well, that actually makes sense. As weird as it is to drop some players (Kinsler!), if they’re not helping you right now, they’re not helping you. You have, like, no time, people! P.O.Y.M.G.S.S. (Put On Your Make Grey Smile Shoes) Anyway, here’s some fantasy baseball players to buy and sell:

BUY

Adam Wainwright – If he stays healthy, he might be the September Cy Young. Unfortunately, it’s a Zelda Rubinstein-sized if. (Which is about a 4′ 11″-sized if.)

Jo-Jo Reyes – Member that Campillo dude. Yeah, Reyes is him minus the innings.

Tom Gorzelanny – Easily could be in the Sell list, because, earlier in the year, he added the third suck in sucky-suck-suck. Since July, he’s been T to the -orrid in the minors at a 2.06 ERA and .91 WHIP. To misquote Wyclef, he’ll be back in September.

Pablo Sandoval – A lot has been made of his weight. Well, there’s a lot there to make of it. Oofa! Let’s just say, if Pablo Sandoval gets a single against the Brewers, leaving him and Prince Fielder both at first, everyone else on the field should shift their weight towards third to avoid a landslide. Might get some starts in front of Benji. He’s got some pizz-op.

Travis Metcalf – Three homers in three starts this week. Could be something, might be nothing. If you’re struggling at corner, you take a flier. He might lose all playing time with Blalock’s return, but as we know from knowing what we know, Blalock will get hurt as soon as he returns.

Juan Salas – Just called up from the minors. Middle relief numbers to make you feel alive with pleasure like a Newport.

Mark Reynolds – The other day I mentioned Reynolds could move to 2nd base when Justin Upton returns. Look at Reynolds’s numbers (77/24/85/.245/8). Now imagine them from a 2nd basemen. That’s almost a top five 2nd basemen and he’s better than Uggla. In keeper leagues, this could be huge.

Alexei Ramirez – As I mentioned in yesterday’s fantasy baseball keeper post, I fell in love with Alexei and I liked it! I hope my girlfriend don’t mind it! (Sorry, that stupid song is still stuck in my head.)

Jeff Kent – Yeah, he’s a douchebag, but he’s been hot since Manny’s come to town. Get involved!

SELL

Clayton Kershaw/Johnny Cueto/Edinson Volquez/Zach Greinke/Jair Jurrjens/Jorge Campillo/Ricky Nolasco/Justin Duchscherer/Mike Pelfrey/Any pitcher that is pitching far too many innings for their arm – I’m not saying you need to drop these guys outright (though I have started dropping a few them. I’m looking at you, Greinke, Campillo and Jurrjens. Also, if I had Dook-sheer, I wouldn’t be expecting anything from him.). You just need to make sure you’re not too reliant on any of them. They might go from usable to having starts skipped in the matter of seconds.

David Price – Could be here by September 1st, might be worth the flier in ‘09, he’s not ready yet.

Ian Kinsler – I know this injury hurt you, but there’s not much time left. You can’t be waiting around for him to return.

Chris Carpenter – You might get more from Tim Redding this year. Okay, bad example. But there still has to be more valuable guys on your waiver wire.

Brandon McCarthy – He’s on his way back to claim a Rangers’ rotation spot. In deep leagues, I could see the flier, but I’m not expecting anything from him. That’s not true. I’m expecting him to suck.

Ken Griffey Jr. – He’s looked like Ken Griffey Sr. all year.

Chris Davis – He’s hitting .211 in August with 2 HRs. Could he have a good September? Perhaps, but he’s a K machine. When I told you to pickup Chris Davis in June, I said, “Adam Dunn struckout 101 times in his last full year of the minors. Chris Davis struckout 150 times.” And that’s me cutting and pasting me! Now if Metcalf keeps hitting and Blalock returns and stays healthy, Davis may sit a few games a week. Sorry, but don’t shoot the messenger.

Huston Street – He’s owned in 83% of ESPN leagues. As usual, I assume 97% of ESPN’ers abandon their team so this ownership number means very little, but let’s assume just 7 people actually play ESPN fantasy baseball and out of those 7, 1 person still has Street on their team. That’s one person too many.

Delmon Young has 7 home runs for the season, but 3 in the last seven games. Mouth on the left side of the screen says, “Tor-.” Mouth on the right side of the screen says, “-rid.”  …Torrid. Capital T, lowercase -orrid. (As if there’s any other kind of -orrid.) This is a whole lot better than horrid, which he was the first half of the season. Delmon has jowls of a near-20 HR hitter or so say just about every fantasy baseball ‘pert in the beginning of the year. Composite projections look like 76/17/88/.290/15. That’s Shandler, Baseball Prospectus, Rotowire and our own Rudy Gamble’s Point Shares. (See, we only sound arrogant like we don’t read/listen to any other ‘perts, but that’s not true. We’re just aware you’re not that interested in reading how we come to our conclusions. And even less interested in hearing how you are uninterested.) But right now Delmon Young is at 61/7/52/.290/13. So does this mean all of the ‘perts are wrong on Delmon or will he go on an absolute tear in the final 40 games? I’d say a little bit of both probably. He’ll fall low on RBIs, slightly higher on steals, but HRs can be made up fast and I’m buying that he gets close to 17. Anyway, here’s some players to buy and sell for fantasy baseball:

BUY

Marlon Byrd – Don’t Cha wish your last week was fly like me… Don’t Cha!

Melvin Mora - I’ve never liked Mora. Just doesn’t seem like he cares much. But he’s hitting third on the Orioles (I know, great shakes!) and he’s hit .384 since the All-Star break with 6 Melvins and 32 Moras.

Joey Devine -Season numbers look incredible. How incredible, Grey? Tell us! Okay, but don’t sit on my lap. It’s weird. 32 Ks in 27.2 IP, a .98 ERA and a .98 WHIP. For those that read the FBHOF posts and have an encyclopedic memory, like moi, you won’t need this reminder, but go check out this FBHOF post and read about Eck’s historic season. Identical ERA/WHIP ain’t easy, son. (Not son as in I’m your Dad, but you were just sitting on my lap.)

Brad Ziegler – *shakes fist at defaced poster of Orel Hershiser* Don’t worry, you still got value, Ziegler. A whole lot more than that other German reliever, Heilman.

Jensen Lewis – I love Swensen’s! (Editor’s note: Swensen’s did not pay for Grey’s endorsement. In fact, if they knew, they would probably request Grey keep their name out of his mouth.)

Matt Capps – Only about a week away. If he was dropped in your league, I’d pick him up if you have room. Nope, no room! Sure, just move the camping gear out of the trunk.

Jeff Kent – So everyone pegs this D-Bag to get 17 Hrs, he’s at 11. And that was before Manny. I just grabbed him in a 15 team ‘pert league.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Yes, his first name sounds like a leaky bum, but in August he’s batting .310 with 2 HRs and a 1 steal.

Ty Wiggington – Another hot 2nd baseman. Actually, he’s been hot for a 3rd baseman. Surprising factoid of the day, he’s only 30. I would’ve guessed 37.

Wandy Rodriguez – No Rhyme or Reason, “Yeah, I can talk. Whaddup?” “I’m picking up Wandy.” No Rhyme or Reason, “That makes sense to me.”

Dan Wheeler/Grant Balfour – I’m grabbing Wheeler first, and only after he’s gone am I looking at Balfour. UPDATE: Since I wrote this, the Rays announced Balfour would fill-in. Saves are the bottom line, so he should be the first one grabbed. I still think Wheeler will get a handful of chances.

Jeff Francoeur – As I like to say about one of my female neighbors, “What a bust.” But the other day, he hit his first home run in over month. If you didn’t have Frenchy throughout his razztastic season and he’s sitting on your league’s waiver wire, he could have value in the last 40 games.

Chris Dickerson – Okay, so I touted him here and here in the last day. Get Off My Dickerson And Tell Yo B**** To Come Here. (BTW, **** Weren’t asterisks to look below the post. That was to fill in for “itch.”)

SELL

Jed Lowrie – The newest recipient of the tooting of the Sons of Sam’s Horn. With one home run and zero steals in 122 at-bats, I wouldn’t even be talking about him if he was on any other team.

Chris Young – Looks like a lost season and I’d just drop him to waivers, except in the deepest of leagues.

Jorge Campillo – Getting off here, fellas. Next stop, Pueblo de Wandy Rodriguez.

Phil Hughes – Holy heffin’ heff, ESPN JUST!!! announced that the NY Daily News announced that the Yankees might announce Hughes might take over for Giese. I guess it’s better than their usual announcement that Hank Steinbrenner farted.

D.J. Carrasco – First he played the skinny, cracked out buddy in those teen comedies and now he might take Contreras’s spot in the rotation. He’s worth a flier in AL-Only leagues, that’s about it.

Paul Byrd – Yes, being on the Sox gives him a bit more value. But he doesn’t strikeout anyone. Last year, in nearly 200 innings he K’d 88 guys (only two of those were Adam Dunn, but 16% of them came in interleague). He’s onto some similar yawnstipating numbers this year. He’s given up 23 HRs compared to his schmohawkian 56 Ks. Has he been good recently? Yup. Could he be good against the Jays tonight? Perhaps. In the long run, Koko B. Ware because the Byrd man will kill you.

Troy Percival – After the game, he was seen in crutches (and some fly-ass Zubaz). Percival lost nearly a month with a sore hammy. Now he’s on crutches (in fly-ass Zubaz) as he heads to the DL and he’s old as dog balls. I’d drop him if your DL-spot is Nissan Sentra crowded.

Daniel Cabrera – Member that girl you slept with who bugged out and put together a future photo album, which was pictures of Ken and Barbie posing as you and the girl in the future?  Dooooode! Cabrera’s the pitching equivalent of that crazy ass chick!

Across all of my deeper leagues, invariably Chipper Jones is on one of the top teams. In the shallow leagues, Chipper is buoying teams above fifth place all by myself. Heard the Braves announcers talk about Chipper’s chances at .400. A question that would make more sense is, “What’s Chipper’s chance to get 400 at-bats?” I think he gets there, at-bats that is, not average. He’s a .309 career hitter, but his average has been steadily climbing as he gets older (which is a normal occurrence, batters just get better at knowing what they can and cannot hit). So he could hit .350. But unless you’re struggling with a lot of low average guys, average is, well, average. Chipper’s home runs have been declining. He hit 29 home runs last year, but 12 in April/May, so his early season outburst this season isn’t necessarily a sign of great things.  Of course, everyone’s main concern is his games played. I think you have a better chance of guessing what Joey from The Real World: Hollywood is going to say next than how many games Chipper is going to play. (Sober Joey, “I’m an alcoholic! And I love the albino stripper.” Drunk Joey, “I love everyone, but really love the albino stripper!” Drunker Joey, “I will rip off the albino stripper’s head and toss it into the eight foot aquarium!” Sober Joey, “I wasn’t like this when I came into this house!” Actually, now that I write it out, that’s much more predictable than Chipper Jones’s injury history. But I digress.) So going forward with Chipper, what did we learn from this exercise? The home runs are not going to get into the forties. He will miss some games. He won’t bat .400, but should get to 400 at-bats. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Claudio Vargas – Should be owned in all NL-Only leagues. (And all leagues that require you have a Vargas on your team. But then, Claudio Vargas was probably already on a team.)

Carlos Beltran – The Mets pitching staff and I often sat in the dugout sipping espresso, then afterwards would talk baseball. During batting practice, I discussed open and closed stances with Howard Johnson. We laughed about “high hard ones” and Carlos Beltran punched me in the nose.

Scott Feldman – Looked tremendous today, giving up only one earned run. He was about to be featured in the opening, until I realized he was facing the Mariners. Right now, he’s not that great looking forward. (I mean, he is capable of looking forward, just his stats may not be that good in the future.)

Jeff Clement – He’s one game away from qualifying at catcher in five game leagues. (That means he just caught his fourth game, Einstein.)

Gary Sheffield – He’s moving back to DH. The same DH spot that he said was the reason why he was hitting poorly. I think he’s hurting and just playing around with excuses. He shouldn’t be on any teams at this point.

Nick Johnson – He has a sore wrist. In other news, taco diarrhea burns.

Jim Edmonds – He will force Felix Pie back to Triple-A. Matt Murton better clean off his couch.

Manny Parra – Thank God for the Dodgers’s offense.

Guillermo Mota – Let’s try Torres.

Blake DeWitt – Has the highest average amongst rookies and he just hit his third home run.

Jeff Kent – You know how you can tell when a baseball player is suddenly old, when they look like Luis Gonzalez, but not as agile.

Brett Myers – I mentioned before that Brett Myers and I went to poetry night at The Turtleneck on Philly’s South Side. It was April. Brett had just thrown an eight K performance at the Bank. He said he could have struckout nine. I said it was a good outing, though not a great outing and that’s the way it was for future middle relievers. We laughed over this and Brett Myers punched me in the nose.

Ryan Howard – Barring injury, still looking at 40 home runs as he now sits on 8 after a home run yesterday.

Blaine Boyer – Got the Atlanta save. Just another member of the committee.

Ian Stewart – So far I’ve picked him up and dropped him three times in the last two weeks. (Yes, I am that annoying owner.) My thought process is, I pick him up and hold him for a couple of days. When I need another hitter for a short schedule day, I drop him. If I have him when he is called up, I’m golden. If I don’t have him, then chances are he’s on waivers and at least someone has to use their claim for him. Win-win, in my book. (BTW, that book is titled, “Annoying the Crap Out of Your Opponents When They Don’t Restrict the Amount of Adds and Drops, 7th Edition”)

Scott Downs – Just got his fifth save.

C.C. Sabathia – I think this is closer to the Sabathia you’re going to get this year. I also don’t have him on any teams. Just when you think I’m going right, I go left! Or maybe left-right!

John Lackey – Looked solid in his return with 7 IP, 1.29 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 4 Ks. Pretty far off in the pick the line game.

James Shields – Very solid game in the loss.

Robinson Cano – 4-for-4. His buy low time quickly evaporates as he’s batting .350 with two home runs in May.

Mike Mussina – I mentioned before that I was in St. Petersburg. It wasn’t the first time I had been to Florida. I was there many years ago with Mike Mussina. Mussina had just finished second in the Cy Young voting and we were competing in a Scrabble tournament. He had just pulled the tiles t-h-k-k-o-y-a and I said there was no way he could make a seven letter word from that. He said this is the first time I’ve had two Ks all year. We laughed over this and Mike Mussina punched me in the face.

Hello, Joe all the way from Ireland here, yes believe it or not there are fantasy baseball addicts in this part of the world too, well there’s one anyway!

I just came across your site the other day and find it to be excellent. So i thought i’d share my 14-team mixed league team with you and get your thoughts, on possible moves i should make and so on.

C: Chris Snyder
1B: Adrian Gonzalez, 6th round
2B: Brian Roberts, 3rd round (thinking of trading him)
3B: Miguel Cabrera, 1st
SS: Peralta, 14th
OF: Carlos Lee, 2nd
OF: Hart, 5th
OF: Swisher, 7th
Util: Kemp, 8th
Bnch: Kent, 17th
Bnch: Votto, 20th
Bnch: Carlos Gomez, FA
Bnch: Eugenio Velez, FA
DL: Wily Mo Pena, FA
SP: CC Sabathia, 4th
SP: Rich Hill, 9th
SP: Francisco Liriano, 10th
SP: Chien-Ming Wang, 12th
SP: Manny Parra, FA
SP: Hiroki Kuroda, 21st round
CL: Matt Capps, 11th
CL: BJ Ryan (took a risk and dealt Tim Hudson for him)
RP: Heath Bell, 16th
————-

Hey Joe -
Thanks for writing in. Nice to know fantasy baseball has found its way across the pond. It’s got to be better than fantasy cricket, right?

It’s always tough to judge a roster without seeing the rest of the field. Assuming a 5×5 league, I’d say you’ve got a slightly above average team with potential for very good. I like your offense – particularly for HR/RBI. You get solid SBs out of your team without sacrificing power. While I don’t like Roberts as a 3rd round pick, I think you have to hold onto him given Hart/Kemp can’t carry your team and you don’t have enough offensive slots to carry the crappy peripheral stats of Gomez and Velez.

I’m more concerned on your pitching. Sabathia and Hill should provide solid 4 category stats. Hudson would’ve been an ok 3rd starter as Wang and Kuroda project very low on Ks (maybe 200K b/w the two) so it’s tough carrying both. Liriano/Parra are both high reward/high risk. You’re obviously weak in saves but, in a 14 team league, 2 closers should get you average points. I’d hope for the best with BJ and jump on any potential closer that’s on the FA/waiver wire. Really like Heath Bell to help provide ERA/WHIP/K help and a Save darkhorse.

I’d consider trading for another starter. Someone who projects as safer than Liriano/Parra and better on Ks than Wang or Kuroda. This tier would include AJ Burnett, Adam Wainwright, Dustin McGowan, Pedro Martinez, Ian Snell, John Maine, James Shields, Matt Cain, Oliver Perez, and Derek Lowe. Trouble is, there’s not much you can offer. Perhaps someone who is poor in speed will bite on Wang/Kuroda and Gomez/Velez? Maybe someone low on Ks will bite on the upside of Liriano? Assuming no, I’d look to drop 1-2 hitters (definitely Kent, Gomez or Velez) on your bench for middle relievers who you can rotate in to bulk up on Ks. Guys like Betancourt, Accardo, Rauch, Moylan, Broxton, Fuentes, Marmol, Benoit, Turnbow, Tony Pena and Heilman. No point betting on another risky starter.

Hope this helps and that Irish luck carries over to fantasy baseball…

Rudy