Fantasy Baseball Advice

In one league, Rudy just traded Capps for Victorino and in another league he traded Capps for Billingsley. That’s right; he pulled off a classic double upper-decker. (I believe the term upper-decker is still, erm, dangling right outside of the glossary, but with some momentum in the forums it might make it in. I’ve objected and Rudy recommended Jokey Smurf’d, which I do enjoy, even if I don’t get it. And, yes, these are the things that matter to me.) So Capps is out for at least 8 weeks with a right shoulder injury. He’s not coming back. If he does, he comes back for what? One Day in September (great movie, by the way). The Pirates are playing for 2012. They don’t need Capps. Buh-buh-buh what if he recovers quickly?! He didn’t get many saves as it was. Kobayashi probably will get more saves replacing Borowski than Capps the rest of the way. So… *rubbing hands together* who gets the saves? More than likely, it’s Marte. He’s a lefty so if he falters, it might be the dreaded committee. Marte should be able to handle the one-to-two-saves-a-week he’s given. If you’re really a save vulture, fiending like Pookie in New Jack City, then grab Yates. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Rafael Furcal - Well, I said yesterday that Furcal probably won’t be contributing much this year. Now it seems like he won’t contribute anything. How do you go from a sore back to back surgery after two months of rehabilitation? Seriously, they couldn’t have operated two months ago? Maybe when he got hurt? Not after he rehabbed. Ugh, this is frustrating. I hate Furcal.

The Angels - The regular readers probably already know this, but I live in Los Angeles. So my hometown teams are the Dodgers and the trying-hard-to-be-the-Dodgers Angels. Well, I managed to get to July before I watched a whole Angels game. I tend to watch the NL and I have Direct TV, so I usually watch all teams rather than one in particular. I have favorites to watch, in no particular order, the Marlins, Brewers, Braves, Cubs, Padres, Rays, Rangers, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Mets… Wait, what was I saying? Oh, yeah, the Angels. I watched them today. Holy mother of the inventor of Doritos, they are boring. I think my eyes yawned. Here’s some things I saw that I didn’t want to: Kendrick sparking the offense with slap hits, not being able to gauge if Eveland/Saunders are good or the Angels/A’s are bad, the OC kids jumping around like/with rally monkeys, Red Hudler saying, “That’s how Vladdy goes… From his heads to his toes…” and thinking how ironic it is that there’s a minority owner, but The OC is known as The Orange Curtain because of its lack of minorities. For fantasy baseball purposes, I saw a few things. Juan Rivera hit a home run. He could have a decent second half, he’s done it before. Chone Figgins looks unusable. It’s still early so he could put together a 15 steal month, but it may not be this month. Vladimir Guerrero looks like he’s suffering more this year than previous years, causing him to run like Cousin Geri from the Facts of Life. Bobby Crosby batting third is good for Crosby and bad for the A’s. Erick Aybar batted third and homered. I think Scioscia’s tipping ‘em back with LaRussa.

Roger Berandina - He was mentioned in the forums or the comments (Heffin’ hey, I gotta keep track of where things are mentioned too?). I thought Berandina was a solid NL-only pickup in a keeper league. He has speed, he’s batting leadoff until Milledge returns and he looks like he couldn’t hit the side of a barn with a broom. Eugenio Velez called, he wants his fantasy baseball outlook back.

Ricky Nolasco - 7 IP, 8 Ks, 2 ER. I’m told his name in Gaelic translates to “this start was against a team that had Paul LoDuca at first and Berandina leading off.” However, I do like Nolasco moving forward, even when LoDuca isn’t the opposing first baseman. (BTW, I went to look at what I’ve said in the past on this site about LoDuca and I found this, “(LoDuca) says he wants to prove the Mets wrong. I say, how? By hitting 7 homers and twelve doubles.” And that’s me laughing at me!

Jay Bruce - In five games, he’s at 12/6/16/.680/2. Unfortunately, those games are scattered all over the place. (Someone at Elias Sports Bureau just died from my misuse of stats.) Okay, after Bruce’s two homer game last night, you have two options. First option, you smile and congratulate yourself on holding Bruce through his lean times. Second option, you sell him because you know he hit those two home runs off a Pirates pitcher that might be named Van Beanstalk. You make the call!

Xavier Nady - 2 HRs. I kinda wish I took my own advice and picked him up on the 2nd day of the season. If I did, I wouldn’t have Adam Lind on one team.

Adam Lind - Watchoo talkin’ ’bout, Xavier Nady’s player news? I hit a home run last night.

Chris Davis - Hit another HR. Now has 3 in like 2 at-bats to go along with five Ks or something. Listen, it’s more of the same, you take the flier if you can afford to drop someone because you never know where something great is going to come from. He Ks and hits home runs. That’s what he do. He can hit 20 home runs in half a season. Most veterans won’t do that. I’ve bought in in three leagues, I dropped Ken Griffey Jr., Pedro Martinez and Jorge Campillo. Oh, and I still can’t pick him up in one league — Yahoo Fantasy Baseball sucks.

Daryl Thompson - This guy’s numbers in the minors were major (<—-pun!). Unfortunately, it seems like he’s now being rushed.  Luckily, he has Dusty to nurture him and watch his pitch counts.

Jeff Francis - To the DL. That’s the Disgraced List.

Clayton Kershaw - Back to Double-A. Looks like Alyssa Milano will have to find someone else to give herpes to.

Chris Snyder - Came down with Jockular Sphincteritis. IowaCubs, a frequent commenter, said Snyder busted a nut. That’ll be a tough line to beat for Razzball Comment ‘O Week.

J.R. Towles - Member that doooode that no one could get enough in the preseason? Yeah, he’s back. His return isn’t because of great production in the minors; Quintero is on the 15-day DL.

Yorvit Torrealba - It’s getting warm in Coors and balls are jumping out. I’m licking stamps and thinking about shipping Navarro off on a few teams.

Steven Pearce - I mentioned him in the Buy/Sell last week. Well, Steven Pearce was just called up by the Pirates. Okay, here’s the thing. There’s nowhere to play him, but the Pirates will be sellers (as they have been for years) at this trading deadline. So they could move LaRoche, Bay or Nady within a week and Pearce then gets a long look. NL-only people need to grab him immediately. Mixed leaguers need to wait and see.

Pedro Martinez - I’m dropping him in all ten team leagues. This was Rudy and I over IM yesterday, Rudy, “Are you starting Pedro @ STL?” Me, “No, I’m done with Pedro. And since I can’t start him, there’s no reason to hold onto him. He’s gone.” “Yeah, you make some really good calls when it comes to fantasy baseball. They should call this hobby of ours, Grey’s fantasy baseball. In fact, they should call hobbies — Grebbies. To work your name in there.” “I agree.”

Chris Duncan - Hit another home run. He’s getting hot. Definitely worth substituting in when he’s facing righties. In other Duncan news, Shelley dislocated his shoulder giving a high five.

Chase Headley - HR yesterday, now 4 HRs since callup to go along with 18 Ks and 0 walks. But, Grey, you tout Davis who Ks and doubt Headley? Are you facist? No, but Davis has immense power and he plays in Texas. Headley has solid power and he plays in a stadium that makes Randy Wolf look awesome. Speaking of which…

Randy Wolf - 7 ER in 4 IP. He said after the game that he felt like the “worst pitcher in baseball.” I say, “Only on the road, Randy. Only on the road.”

Aaron Harang is not a bad pitcher. Actually, he hasn’t even been bad this year. (Okay, he hasn’t been good either.) If I may turn my hat crooked, Harang just had some straight-up bad luck, yo. You want numbers? How about these? His BABIP .335, that’s bad luck. His K/9 is around 8. That’s very solid. Three year ERA, 3.77. He’s at 4.33. So that should come down. He’s a workhorse, so that’s a lot of IP with good numbers. Going forward, Harang should have good numbers across the board minus wins; those I can’t guarantee. But chasing wins is a losing man’s game. (Hey, that was a pretty clever turn of a phrase. If I had an internet page of quotes like Oscar Wilde or Mitch Hedberg, that would be 17th. 16th would be, “Can I get an Amen, Sherman Hemsley?” and 18th would be “Dance With Me here, Orleans.” But I digress.) So what do you do with this Harang-a-tang of info? You go trade for him, that’s what you do. Anyway, here’s some other fantasy baseball players to buy or sell:

BUY

Robinson Cano - On my gravestone it will say, “I told you I was ill” and my legacy will be pimping Cano for two months straight.

Jo-Jo Reyes - Someone mentioned in the comments yesterday that they haven’t heard anything about him. Reyes has really gone under the radar for me. I only mentioned to pick him up here, here, here, here, here. The first mention was a day after his first start of ‘08. If you guys (and possibly one or two girls, but highly doubtful) want, change your fantasy baseball password to what I use, “GreyIsFortified” and I’ll do your drops and adds.

Chase Headley - Kouzmanoff has done a lot of nothing since last year. Now he’s supposedly suffering from a sore back.

Jeff Francis - Very serviceable coming into this year until he was completely derailed in his quest to match Snell in a game of onedownmanship. His next game is against the Royals. If he pitches well, he’ll be a hot add. You’ve been warned. Or as they say in knitting circles, you’ve been yarned.

Jeff Baker - Rudy liked him coming into the year, then he fell out of favor (Baker, not Rudy). Rudy’s adding him all over the place again.

Kory Casto - On most days, he’s starting in place of Wily Mo Pena; I like Casto in NL-Only leagues. But remember, “Person who dance with Nats is easily bored.”

Jeff Keppinger - I wait with bated breath to start him in a NL-Only league. (BTW, it is bated, not baited. Check yo’self, fool.) Keppy’s about a week away from coming back.

Mike Aviles - Seems like people are falling over themselves to add this dude. I can understand it. As I’ve said many times before, when you’re dealing with MI, CI, UT or fifth starters, you want to take a gamble. There’s no point in fielding a boring, safe guy. (That’s not to say there’s no point in fielding a productive, safe guy. There is a difference. Figuring out the difference was my minor at The Fantasy Baseball College of Charleston.)

Eric Byrnes - Nope, I don’t like him, but I feel like no one likes him at this point. If everyone’s zigging, why aren’t you zagging? Would be worth seeing how cheaply you can grab Byrnes. I’d think you can get him for next to nothing and he could prove a valuable fifth outfielder in the 2nd half of the year.

Josh Willingham - It says he’s owned in 93% of all ESPN leagues. Now I’m assuming 99% of ESPN leagues are drafted in March then the owners never look at their team again. If this is not the case and people have been holding onto Willingham and wasting a lineup spot all of this time, you are going to make me blow a blood vessel. Now everyone who dropped Willingham, you can go get him again.

SELL

Jake Peavy - I love Peavy, but as I mentioned a few weeks ago, I’m selling. Call me conservative, but I can’t wrap my mind around pitchers with recent arm troubles.

Kevin Kouzmanoff - See Headley, Chase or about three and two-thirds of an inch above.

Hiroki Kuroda - He wasn’t that bad when he was in there, but now he has shoulder tendinitis. Punt.

J.D. Drew - With my hands in my pockets, I stood next to J.D. Drew as he talked to Manny. I waited for an introduction. They laughed about Youkilis’s party out on The Cape. Apparently, Manny read from his journal of poems that he wrote while in left field. They laughed and I punched Drew in the mouth.

Joe Saunders - I think he’s already been on a Sell List. Hmm… Well, here he is again, because he’s keeping up this unsustainable start!

Aaron Cook - Full disclosure, I’ve had him in a mixed ten team league for two months and have reaped a lot of his benefits. I know he’s not really this good; everyone knows this. This isn’t a “sell” as much as a “be glad for what you got and be ready to drop.”

Joe Nathan - I could’ve put Mariano Rivera here instead of Taipei Slinklo or any other top closer. (I could’ve even put Beanie McDougalston, but that’s a made up name.) Because at the end of the year, when everything’s said and done, do you ever look in the mirror and say, “I am so glad I had Taipei Slinklo. And damn my hair looks good,” or do you say, “I’m glad I traded Joe Nathan for Harang. And damn my hair looks good?” You tell me. Tell me!

Looks like someone got around to translating Karabell’s Etch-A-Sketch writings into fantasy baseball advice. Unless the rumors are true that Karabell’s gone green and started simply writing his fantasy baseball advice on toilet paper. Waste not, want not. So Karabell’s latest blog post was about how unproductive DHs currently are and how this should affect the way we look at pitchers. Could Karabaloney have hit on something when he surmised from seven unproductive DHs that league disparity isn’t what you think? Yeah, he hit on my last nerve. You have to be an ESPN Hindsighter™ to fully appreciate Karabell’s mangling of common sense, but I’ll give you a few turd nuggets to mull:

…with one month down, it’s no longer so big a gap (between leagues) that we should evaluate pitchers differently. The current league ERA in the NL is 4.07, and in the AL it’s 4.23. In 2007, it was also a small difference, 4.43 to 4.51. Maybe the designated hitter isn’t such a big deal anymore, eh?

Besides, using the word ‘eh,’ there’s about four hundred things wrong with this (you don’t draft entire staffs or entire leagues, you don’t draft every single middle man that is influencing these stats, you don’t start three of five starters in Citizen’s Bank or four of five in Coors, you draft maybe one Marlins starter, maybe two Pirates starters — I could go on, but I’m getting a tumor thinking about this.). So I’m going to focus on the most obvious:

The designated hitter isn’t such a big deal, eh? Who in their right mind would prefer to face a designated hitter instead of a pitcher? Heffin’ hey, are Karabell’s posts being written by Corky for Life Goes On? Sure, Karabell could shat on a piece of paper and win a FSWA.ORG award, but to say the DH is irrelevant is stoopid. (BTW, The FSWA has a mission statement. It’s akin to someone writing down rules for Rock, Paper, Scissors. Picture the FSWA getting together for drinks. “Hey, man, I’m not paying for your second colada!” “Figured I could sneak it through… Like I snuck Wade Boggs through in ‘87!” *Belly laughs all around.* But I digress.) In 2007 (I’m going to ignore 2008’s stats because, unlike maybe Karabell, those are the stats I drafted with. Not to mention, one month of stats isn’t indicative of anything other than someone who doesn’t know how to sort stats correctly), the fourteen AL teams placed in the top fifteen teams for OPS for the ninth placed hitter. The only NL team that snuck in was the Cardinals. Why? Because LaRussa, who’s cracked out of his mind, batted the pitcher eighth. So with current DHs sucking up the suck pot, does this mean it’s easier to face them than the NL pitcher? C’mon, only Karabell would think that nonsense. Or another way to put this, Karabell’s off his meds.

Then Karabell talked a bit about how awful some DHs have hit thus far. Again, it’s only one month, but we’ll let Karabell play with his Speak & Spell. Frank Thomas was on his list. The same Frank Thomas who Karabell pegged as a big sleeper. Dude, I’m telling you, you can’t make this shizz up. It’s like Karabell is not a real person but an amalgamation (Word of the Day) of whatever the interns are talking about while they pickup Kruk’s lunch.

Someone else who was in this list, David Ortiz. Now I’m not sure how I even missed this one back in March, but Karabell described David Ortiz as his pick for AL MVP! (Sorry for the exclamation point, but I felt it was needed.) A DH who has off-season knee surgery is who he chooses? Seriously, this is ESPN’s top fantasy analyst. Did he forget when Ortiz had his best seasons people wouldn’t vote for him because he was a DH? Did Karabell call in his pick from Tijuana after a night of ‘ludes and donkey shows? When he chose Ortiz, was he eating a Sonic Coney that caused him to hallucinate? Does his high school bully still torment him and was giving him a noogie until he chose Ortiz? Please, someone explain this to me, cause I’m about to lose it. Meanwhile, Karabell, go get your shinebox!

Yovanni Gallardo is due to pitch this weekend, so that means Dave Bush could be bumped. Unfortunately, I’m not sure it’s going to work out that way. Here’s the scoop, as the newsies used to say. Manny Parra was just plain wild today. I wish I could blame the home plate umpire, DeMuth, for Manny Parra’s start like I will later blame the home plate ump for Edinson Volquez’s somewhat rocky win. DeMuth is notoriously a hitter’s umpire, but lots of Parra’s pitches weren’t even close. Demuth did not ’squeeze’ Parra. Out of five walks and five hits he gave up to the Cards in 4 innings, Parra was very lucky to get out of it with only three runs earned. This could’ve easily been a five run first and Parra out by the second. What does this mean for Manny Parra going forward? Well, it’s good that Villanueva had a worse start on Wednesday, but you don’t want your future riding on other people’s misfortune (hey, I could write fortune cookies!). Right now, I see Gallardo getting Villanueva’s Monday start, because Villanueva has experience as a reliever. However, if Bush pitches decent and Parra’s bungles his next start, Parra may get bumped. Or Parra may just get sent down. This has the makings of The Pierre Situation™ for pitching. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Edinson Volquez - As I mentioned earlier in regards to umps, Volquez was getting squeezed so much he should press sexual harassment charges (sorry, that sounds like something an ESPN announcer would say). Let’s just say, Volquez didn’t walk in one run by walking Ted Lilly. He struck him out and the ump didn’t call it. He did not walk four batters. Maybe two. (Quick aside, I have a conspiracy theory. I think because MLB had to crack down on steroids, which will hurt offense — and offense puts asses into the seats — MLB had to do something to ‘enhance’ the offense. What did they do? They told the umps to shrink their strike zone. I have no proof of this and if you were to hear someone saying this in a bar, you’d probably roll your eyes and walk away. But I digress.)

Joey Votto - I know Dusty gets no love in the United States of The Blogosphere, but he’s playing Votto.

Pat Burrell - Burl, not Bur-rell, went to college with my girlfriend and slept with one of her friends. That will never get old! (Unless, of course, I find out her ‘friend’ was her, then I might vomit. And breakup with her. While vomiting. Anyway…) Burrell will hit 35 home runs, but I’d try and trade him, except in leagues that count OBP.

Joe Crede - “You can put it on the booooard… YES!” Harrelson’s a doucebag. Oh, and send my regards to Josh Fields.

Franklin Gutierrez - And you thought you’d never have to hear about him again. He turned on a Verlander fastball and sent it down the line for a double. Two days ago, two steals. Today, two hits. Cust kayin’.

Justin Verlander - Rudy’s pick for Cy Young doesn’t look so good. (My pick’s on the DL, sweet!) If it wasn’t for Peralta grounding into a double play with the bases loaded in the first inning, Verlander’s line would look much worse. Verlander was the one AL pitcher in the first tier, I actually considered drafted (I didn’t, but I considered it). Well, I’m sure some pundit is breaking down how Verlander’s curve has flattened because the tilt of his elbow has changed from 42° to 48°. Well, whatever, brainiac. I would not trade for him or trade him away (same with Sabathia). Unfortunately, you need to take a wait and see approach.

Fausto Carmona - I also don’t have him on any team, but he’s continuing what he started last year. Low Ks, okay WHIP, keeping his team in it for a win. He also got his control back after his last start, which is a good sign. Maybe last time out it was too much Cristal after signing that big contract.

Prince Fielder - Gathering all his strength from his inner veggie burger, he went deep. Take that meat lover’s! BTW, I see 45 homers more on the way.

Eric Gagne - I inexplicably left him off this week’s closer look. Probably because he looked good last week. He’s still a ticking bomb. A big, ex-steroid-taking, ticking bomb.

Ryan Zimmerman - I avoided him like the plague in drafts and I wish I could assuage (Word of the Day, May 23rd, 1999) your fears, but I can’t. I don’t see him having a good season. Someone might. I would trade him.

Carlos Quentin - Maybe it’s his good eye, but I love Carlos Quentin, have for a long time. If I wasn’t soooo busy with the Alex Gordon Fan Club, I’d totally start a Quentin one. Anyhoo, he’s getting his at-bats. I would grab him if you had room. Oh, and start the blog GreyLovesQuentin.com, I’ll guest post, if you’ll have me.

Nick Markakis - Three homers, four steals. To start a fire, you need a sparkakis!

Bobby Jenks - I’m no more worried about him today than I was yesterday. Which is to say, I have Dotel on one team.

Jake Peavy and Jeff Francis - Both pitched extremely well. I think I could throw quality start in Petco.

John Lannan - Before you get any ideas, he had 16 Ks in over 45 innings up until tonight. Blip on the radar.

Melky Cabrera - Considering I took him with the 283rd pick in my ‘pert league, I’d say I’m getting value. Are you?

Giving invaluable advice is what we do and all you do is sit there eating your cranberry bran muffin and reading it. Over a hundred of you subscribe to the feed, over 2,000 of you stop by daily. As Juan Encarncion might say, “I can’t see you, but I know you’re there.” Without you, it wouldn’t be half the fun. Okay, maybe it would be half the fun, but definitely not three-quarters of the fun. So to repay me, I’m letting you help me with my keeper team.

Caveats you must know:

It’s a NL-only ten team, five player max keeper, standard $260 budget. Scoring categories are: Offensively — Home Runs, OBP, Runs, RBIs, Sbs, Total Bases. Pitching – ERA, Innings, Strikeouts Minus Walks, Saves, Wins, WHIP. I refuse to pay more than $30 for any single player and no more than $100 total on my pitching staff. It’s my oldest keeper league and the winner gets close to two grand, so, ya know, pay attention. Onto the keeper letter to you:

You,

First off, great reading of my site! In the last two years, I’ve traded away Jose Reyes, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Shane Victorino and Hanley Ramirez for nothing. There might be more numbskulled moves, but I’m drunk trying to dull the pain of past blunders. Guess you can also see why I’m soliciting advice. Can’t do much worse! So going into 2008, I have few options. Not “a” few, just few. For $29, I’m keeping Matt Holliday. This is a bargain in our league, or any for that matter. Plus, he falls below my imaginary Mason-Dixon $30 line. Now for the cream of the rest of my crap:

Pedro Martinez at $11. I think he’s got 130 inning/10 wins/ 3.35/good Ks-BB/good WHIP. This seems like a no-brainer to me for $11, but I have my doubts and may wait until spring training’s assessment of the number three man on the Mets.

Jose Valverde at $10. I wish I was able to convince myself not to keep him, but at $10 I’m having a hard time. He’s a nightmare when he explodes, Berkman’s all but said he’s not welcome and I don’t like paying $10 for any closer. I think he could get 35 saves and decent peripherals, but I’m not sold.

Jeff Francis at $12. I don’t think there’s an argument available that could convince me to keep Francis for $12. Believe I can toss him back and not pay more than $10 if I want him again, which I’m not totally against.

Yorvit Torreabla at $5. I’ve sung my praises already for Torreabla. Probably had nice things to say because I’m trying to convince myself he’s worth $5. I’ll probably keep him since I’d like to have catching squared by the draft because the next “great” NL catcher available at the draft may be LoDuca. LoNoThankYou.

Kevin Frandsen at $5. He intrigues me. In little September time as Durham got the bench, Frandsen hit 5 homers and stole 4 bases. Unfortunately, his minors’ numbers say to expect less and he has a lot of minors’ numbers, since he’ll be 26 in May. Still for $5; I might take a flier. Any Giants fans out there that could shed some light on this slap hitter with no speed?

John Patterson at $5. I think I can get him back for close to $5. There you have it; my team sucks.

Yours,
Me

P.S. When’s Bo Bice’s new album coming out? Can’t wait!

Going through this list really depressed me. If anyone has any thoughts, please comment below.