Fantasy Baseball Advice

Some of these guys will be on waivers if you don’t draft them, so does that mean you shouldn’t draft them?  Actually, I got confused by my own question, but I think that means you should still draft them.  Or maybe it means you should pick them up.  Or maybe wait until someone else picks them up, then mock them relentlessly then when they drop them you pick them up.  Yeah, that feels right.  Either way, here’s some players that no one may own coming out of your (12 team) draft, but you’re likely to look at them at some point in the season.  In larger leagues, these guys will probably be last round steals. Chances are you’ll find yourself sucking your teeth upset I’m telling other people about these guys.  If you want your average run-of-the-mill 2010 fantasy baseball sleepers, they’re, uh, there.  Anyway, here’s some deep fantasy baseball sleepers:

Kris Medlen – He averaged over a K an inning last year.  Will start the year as an MR, barring an injury to someone… *cough* Jar Jar *cough*.  Medlen will get into the rotation shortly.  Meesa tinks Jar Jar won’t make it the whole year healthy.

Jeff Clement – He has catcher eligibility.  If you need to know more, you don’t know sheeeeeeeeeeet, Senator Clay Davis.

Brett Gardner – Brett Gardner went to a parochial high school.  They made everyone sit in alphabetical order.  He sat in the S row for SAGNOF.

Shaun Marcum – Will be returning from TJ surgery so your guess is as good as mine as what you’re going to get.  Think Liriano last year.  Now think about a lamb wearing sunglasses.  Now think about why you’re thinking about a lamb wearing sunglasses.  That’s weird.  Last round flier for Marcum?  Why not?

Brandon Wood – It’s now or never for Wood.  If it is indeed now, it could mean a 25/10 season.

Bud Norris – He probably won’t win more than 10 games and his control isn’t pretty.  His Ks, however, are.

Daniel Bard – 63 Ks in 49 1/3 innings last year.  Even if Bard doesn’t replace Papelbon in 2010 or turns out to be the Earl of Oxford, he’ll still have value.

David Freese – He hits .300 everywhere he goes (in the minors) and he has 20 homer power.  Before you scoff like you’re some Victorian bigwig, those numbers may not be that far off from Butler at a shallower position.

Unlike our last team, Rudy and I co-drafted this team.  So for every bad pick, Rudy and I have someone to blame.  Neither will take it personal.  We managed to work Elijah Dukes onto this team, who’s a total dwyck.  This is a 20 team, 5×5, roto league and still is, so we have more arms than Bruce Willis.  Get well soon, Guru!  The team breaks down like this:  Catcher, 1st Baseman, 2nd Baseman, 3rd Baseman, Shortstop, 3 Outfielders, Utility, 2 SPs, 2 RPs, 3 Ps and a 4 man bench.  Anyway, here’s a 2010 fantasy baseball team and some thoughts from the draft:

Round 1 – Ryan Braun – We skipped A-Rod and Utley.  Our thought process went like this.  With only one position player for each position, 3 outfielders and one utility man, we figured outfielders would make up the majority of the teams’ Utility spots and might even end up in the bench spots.  So you’re looking at drafting about 100 outfielders vs. 20 3rd basemen, 20 2nd basemen, etc.  Since there was no MI or CI, we figured there wouldn’t be many teams that had more than one 3rd baseman or 2nd baseman, etc. before we drafted one.

Round 2 – Lance Berkman – It was between him and Kendry Morales.  We decided to go with a guy who we felt was slightly more boring, but safer.  Safer helps when there’s absolutely no one on waivers.

Round 3/4 – Felix Hernandez/Cliff Lee – We also figured there would be a lot of pitchers drafted, since each team needed at least 5 starters.  In a 20 team league, two top starters, as we have, should easily get us a near-top finish in 3 of 5 pitching categories.  (WHIP, ERA and Ks.  There’s no accounting for Wins, but we should do okay there too.)  Now we just needed to take a few flier starters later on.

Round 5 – Gordon Beckham – This is Rudy and I on IM while drafting.  Me, “C’mon, let’s take some upside!”  Him, “You and your upside.  We need safe guys who will produce.”  Me, “Our team looks like a contender… In 2006.  We need upside!”  Him, “You want Beckham?”  Me, “Please.”

Round 6 – Johnny Damon – Hold the above dialogue about Gordon Beckham in the mirror.

Round 12 – Alcides Escobar – Rudy and I both tend to punt shortstop (if we don’t get Hanley) and try to get steals from our shorstop later on.  If I remember correctly, we had Everth Cabrera and Alcides to choose from and we needed steals.  Alcides seems more likely to hit at the top of the order for more ABs than EverCab.  Honestly, these guys are such tomato-tomahto at this point, in another draft tomorrow I might go with EverCab.  To read further, Alcides Escobar sleeper post.

Round 13 – Chase Headley – I tried for Snider, but Rudy wasn’t having it.  Rudy tried for Conor Jackson; I wasn’t having it.  We settled for Headley.  If Headley were on any team other than the Padres, he would’ve received his own sleeper post.  Then again, maybe he has a sleeper post and I’ve forgotten.  Damn, Headley, you inspire excitement!

Round 14 – Kelly Johnson – He’ll be solid on Runs, fair on average, hit 15 homers and 10 steals.  Explain to me how Yunel’s better than him one hundred picks earlier.  Go ahead, I’ll wait.  *rests head in hand, taps finger, yawns*  Okay, then.

Round 15 – Casey McGehee – Least favorite pick of the draft.  I really think McGehee ends up back on the bench or in a utility role for the Brewers.  I don’t see him approaching last year’s numbers.  I think Gamel, who might not even start the year with the Brewers, will outproduce McGehee on the year.  Anyway, it was the 283rd pick of the draft and we needed some flexibility.

Round 16 – Clayton Richard – A Padres pitcher with a near 7 K/9 and projected to have a 4 ERA at pick 318?  No problem there for me.

Round 17 – Elijah Dukes – Some other guys taken this round were:  Jeff Weaver, Mike Adams, Chris Getz, Pineiro, Cahill, Maicer Izturis and Luke Scott.  To answer your question, no Chumlee wasn’t drafting for the guy who took Weaver.  That was autodrafted.  The rest of those guys I believe were present.  I always preach not to take bench hitters, but that’s for 10 team, 12 team… 14 team… Maybe in 16 team leagues… In a 20 team league, it’s tumbleweeds on waivers.

Round 19 – Jeff Clement – A’la Buddy from Cake Boss, “Now that’s how you punt catcher!”

Round 20 – Gaby Sanchez – We were looking at Kris Medlen and Carlos Santana but both were scooped right before our pick.  As for Gaby, he (she?) is an upside pick that is at the do or die stage of his (her?) career.  If he (she?) does, this could be our best value pick.

Overall – When we ran the numbers, we’re in a three-way first place tie in the preseason standings with 131 Points.  We didn’t necessarily go into the draft wanting to dominate pitching vs. hitting, but Rudy ran the Point Shares for the league and there were much better values for pitching.  To come out of a 20-team league with two of the top 10 pitchers in baseball (F-Her and Cliff Lee) is a huge advantage — one that would be impossible to attain with just 2 hitters.  Plus, we got Filthy Sanchez, a Johnson and Headley. What’s not to love?

Here, friend, are some catchers that I will be targeting at my 2010 fantasy drafts after the top options are gone.  I’m not going to get into the strategy of punting catchers.  Been there, half-drunkenly wrote that.  Click on the player’s name where applicable to  read more and see their 2010 projections.  This is a supplement to the top 20 catchers of 2010 fantasy baseball.  Anyway, here’s some catchers to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Ramon Hernandez – He’s unexciting³.  But so is losing your league.

Chris Iannetta – He’s exciting, but has Hacky McHackstein breathing down his neck.  For Iannetta’s upside, I’m grabbing him in a few leagues.  Playing time be damned!  The nice thing about going for upside at catcher is no one wants to own more than one (in one catcher leagues), so if you don’t like the catcher you have, there’s plenty more on the waiver wire.

Geovany Soto – Punting doesn’t mean you want to avoid getting value at catcher.

Carlos Ruiz – He just missed the cut for the top 20 catcher post.  It wasn’t easy to leave him off after his bit torrent 2nd half last year.  In less at-bats, he doubled his homers from the first half and added forty points on his batting average.  Unfortunately, his first half was like watching someone suck a boba through a regular-sized straw.  In the 2nd half, he hit 6 homers and batted .276.  So better than the first half, still not incredible.  He has a good lineup for RBIs, so he could be a very minor surprise.  Think 45/14/65/.260/3.

J.R. Towles – Here’s what I said last year in the preseason with added notes in parentheses, “In 2008, I was off him like black off rice, but I haven’t mentioned him much, if at all, in 2009 (or in 2010).  You just need to throw out 2008 (and 2009).  Pretend like it never happened.  Or pretend like the only part that happened was when he hit .304 in almost 50 games after his callback from the minors (in 2008.  Then ignore his .188 average in 2009, because he had a .233 BABIP).   He has speed and some slight power.  The absolute best case scenario seems to be Russell Martin.  In the so-late-it-doesn’t-matter-anymore round, you turn your head to the East and you see no catchers by your side.  Then you turn your head to the West, still nobody in sight.  So you turn your head to the North, swallow that pill that they call pride and draft Towles.”  And that’s me amending me, quoting me and paraphrasing T.I.!

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – This guy is even more frustrating than Towles because I have to spell his stoopid name every time I want to write about him.  Saltymochachino is somehow still only 25 years old though it feels like he’s been hyped forever.  If he pans out, he could give you top ten catcher numbers.  Think 60/17/75/.250, but those are Boras speculative numbers when he’s trying to get Salty a contract.

Mike Napoli – This always drives me flippin’ crazy about ESPN.  They’ll rank someone (Napoli at 219) very low.  They’ll rank him after Doumit, Yadier Molina et al (<– Not the Israeli airline) then say Napoli’s a sleeper.  They’ll say he’s better than Molina, Doumit, etc.  Everyone knows this and ranks Napoli above those guys so he’s not a sleeper.  Once again, ESPN’s in the monkey house too long.

Jeff Clement – Looking for this year’s Inge?  A guy that plays another position while rocking the sweet, sweet eligibility of catcher?  Yeah, I don’t know if there’s one of those guys this year, but Clement’s the closest we have.  His upside is 20 homers and solid RBIs from playing every day.  His downside is not playing every day.  I’d conservatively put his 2010 projections at 55/15/65/.255.

No one carries two catchers in one catcher leagues.  If you do, you probably suffer from mushy brain.  So in 12 team leagues, you have 10 to 15 catchers at any time to choose from.  Hey, Miguel Olivo’s dressed like Johnny Weir and he’s hitting!  What do you know, Rod Barajas looks less Barajas-y!  Skinny Pudge is seeing fat pitches! Most catchers are passed around like blow at a Eric Dane/Rebecca Gayheart clam bake.  That, there, is reason enough to punt catcher.  There’s always available options on waivers.

The top 3 options at catcher last year, who still have eligibility this year, are Mauer, Martinez and McCann.  (Wieters might have to flip his W over to keep with the theme.)  After those guys we have Suzuki, Posada, Montero, A.J. and Napoli.  Three waiver wire pick-ups (Suzuki, Montero and A.J.), one guy who went in the last rounds of drafts (Posada) and one guy who I had to beg with people all year to hold onto (Napoli).  It’s like this every year with catchers.  If you hopped out of a DeLorean to tell me Ramon Hernandez, Ryan Doumit, Chris Iannetta, Jeff Clement and Jesus Flores ended up in the top 10 catchers in 2010, I’d say, “I told you Iannetta was a good bargain,” and I’d ask if I used, “The Resurrection of Jesus Flores” as a post title.  Catchers are unpredictable and bunched together in value.  Open up those little oddly proportioned arms and embrace that fact.

Finally, the last reason why you should punt catcher.  Bengie Molina.  He’s available in every draft.  Always is.  No one drafts this Flying Molina Brother until around the 15th round.  His stats last year were 52/20/80/.265.  Victor Martinez’s stats were 88/23/108/.303/1; he gets drafted 23rd overall, according to Mock Draft Central.  The difference between the two was 36/3/28, some average and a steal.  Flying whoop.  With Adrian Gonzalez, who gets drafted right around V-Mart’s spot, vs. Jorge Cantu, a 1st baseman around Bengie’s spot, the difference is 24 homers.  A shortstop comparison would be Rollins vs. Yunel.  A pitcher comparison would be F-Her vs. Ryan Dempster.  At catcher, you can get away with not having a top one and it won’t hurt your team as much.  No pepper games allowed, but you can always punt catcher.

With September 1st knocking on August’s door — August 31st, is that you? Uh… No.  August 30th? Nope.  August 32nd? No, you nitwit!  It’s September 1st! – it’s time we looked at September call ups.  These are potential September call ups that will, should, could and potentially make or not make a difference in fantasy baseball.  Today, we’ll look at the hitters, then on Tuesday afternoon we’ll look at pitchers.  So tip out some of your malt liquor for the pitchers who aren’t here and take a drag on that Newport, cause Razzball’s Alive With Pleasure with September call ups, the hitters.  Anyway, here’s some potential September call ups to keep your eye on for fantasy baseball:

Jason Heyward – I could shave words of praise in my merkin for Heyward, but it probably won’t do us any good.  If Heyward gets called up, he probably won’t have that large of a role in September.

Mat Gamel – He should be the every day 3rd baseman in Milwaukee in September.  At worse, he plays every day vs. righties.  He’ll be worth an immediate pickup in all leagues for a shot of adrenaline to your fantasy baseball heart.  Speaking of which, Inglourious Basterds… I was kinda bored.  Maybe it was my mood.  Not sure.  Just got sick of looking at slow push-ins.

Kila Ka’aihue – I was actually looking forward to the Hawaiia’an mash machine’s call up last November.  How’s that for prescience!

Jeff Clement – Oh, just call him up already, Pirates.  What are you waiting for?  2012?  He deserves to be up already and given a long look.

Buster Posey – Probably will see some time… In spring training.

Justin Smoak – Was broken down by Scouting the Unknown.  Smoak’s another guy I don’t think we see this year.

Chris Heisey – Should get the call up by the Reds.  Or not!  This is for the Reds to decide.  He has moderate speed and power.  Think 12/12.  In one month, think 3/3.  So, eh.  But keepers should stay alert.

Cameron Maybin – You need to put aside the differences you guys had back in April.  Maybin’s worth look in 12 team, mixed leagues if/when he gets his September call up.

Eric Young Jr. – If you need steals in NL-Only leagues, stash him immediately.  Also, Barmes may lose significant time.

Brandon Allen – Besides sounding like a furniture store, he has good power, has already been called up and has a legit shot of seeing a lot of time at first for the Diamondbacks in September.

Tyler Flowers – Sticking with the mall store names, Flowers may get called up in September, but his role will be limited like cumin in chili.

Jeff Larish – Yo, 70’s Bowie was Larish!  Wait, that’s not right.  Jeff Larish is an all power, heavy K 1st baseman.  He probably won’t see much playing time if he’s called up.  And he’s androgynous.

Krispie Young – Now there’s a hot rookie name!

Chris Davis – With the Rangers in the hunt, I doubt they give Davis the requisite at-bats he’ll need to continue his assault on the all-time strikeout record.  Though he’s capable of a huge month, so it’s worth a flier.

Brandon Wood – Yeah, Scioscia will play him.  And in other news, water is dry.

Austin Jackson – For all of youse out there with Don Mattingly pillow cases and “Jeter’s My Homeboy” t-shirts don’t do it. Put down Jackson for this year.