I hear you out there. Wait, something’s not quite right…I see a grainy pic so we’re kinda ok…but where’s the mustache…*squints*…OMG YOU’RE NOT GREY WHAT IS THIS INVASION OF THE BODY SNATCHERS RABBLE RABBLE RABBLE. Look, Grey had a thang, ok? He paged me and asked for coverage. Yes, I’m being literal, he paged me. He’s a bit old school, there’s nothing wrong with that. I showed him my iPhone 6s and how it could translate to Kirundi and make a mean cheese omelette but he said he’d rather ping me with ‘5318008‘. Honestly, I’m totally fine with that but he calls every time afterwards asking me to flip it upside down. Every. Time. Either way, I said I’d cover and here I am, covering the coverage and that leads us to Drew Hutchison. First off, if you own him…ticker shock! Those Houston guys are really good at coming from behind. That’s what she said! Over six innings, Drew gave up two runs while allowing 6 base runners (only one walk), striking out nine. Nine is a nice number when you’re talking about Ks but not as nice as 10. Ten is how many Astros Chris Heston fanned on Tuesday as he threw a complete game two hitter. Heston is close to a 7 K/9 kind of guy, probably a little under. On the one hand, I love Drew so this start has me piqued. On the other hand, the Astros are second in the majors in K rate at 24.6%. On the third hand which is actually Grey’s hand as he takes the pager from me and flips it upside down, Drew looks like a good get for deeper leagues where you can wait on his high K potential, but this shouldn’t move the needle for standard or the RCL. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Happy Matt Harvey Day, everyone! Too bad the scheduling gods didn’t put it at night so we could have some serious DFS fun. Anywho, welcome. I could go on and on about what I do, and how I’ll be here each Thursday for your DraftKings advice, but we’ve been there and done that.

Let’s make you some cash.

Thursday is a weird day, and my spidey-senses tell me it’s going to be this way quite a few times this year. As a go-home day and an off-day, Thursday won’t be like your typical day for baseball. Today, we have games spread throughout the day, with only three night games.

Not cool.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 20 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Greetings Razzball nation, and welcome to another edition of The Numbers Game. Suffering through a long week at work? Looking for a break? Come along with me on a trip to a little town called Splitsville (disclaimer: not a real place). I guarantee you that we’ll have a delightful time there (satisfaction not guaranteed). At the very least, I have a lukewarm inclination that this post will help to pass the time during your afternoon trip to the can (sure, why not). I’ll take it!

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Let’s look at some potential homerun decliners based on the following “Power Score” or expected homerun (xHR) formula and compare it to their actual homerun totals. Here is the formula:

Plate Appearances(PA)*Contact Rate(Ct%)*Outfield flyball rate(OFFB%)*Homerun per Outfield Flyball ratio(HR/OFFB).

Make sense? Sure it does: How many homeruns does a player hit per outfield flyball? How much of their contact results in an outfield flyball? How much overall contact does a batter make when swinging the bat in a plate appearance? This should provide us with an expected HR total.

The below lists are ranked by the largest actual HR-expected HR differentials. Their HR related performance (PA, Ct, OFFB, HR/OFFB) is listed along with their average homerun and flyball average distance and rank.

Two contingencies worth noting at this time: 1) Our samples size still isn’t huge and 2) We’re not taking into account platoon hitters, i.e. Scott Van Slyke as a right-hand hitter only raking against left-hand pitchers. So when I extrapolate the data, keep this in mind. In other words, if Scott Van Slyke consumed more playing time against right-hand pitchers, there’s a good chance his performance/power would drop off.

Here are the top potential HR decliners (I think you will see the value of this xHR comp immediately):

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Rock and Roll.  Chuck Berry, Bo Diddley and and Little Richard got it going.  Elvis made it sexy.  The Beatles made it ok to admit you liked it.  Led Zeppelin and Pink Floyd made it hallucinogenic.  The Stones and Aerosmith kept it alive.  Motley Crue and Skid Row made it pretty and disgusting.  Then Sean Combs, alias TBD, got the idea to sample all of it–to middling results.  And other dudes annihilated it.  Thanks Nickelback and Creed and Puddle of Mudd and Dookie and the Bunghole Fish.  No really, thank you!  Cuz now it’s far more exciting to concern ourselves with sports, fantasy sports, boob jobs and bacon creations.  Drinking is now an acceptable way to pass the day as long as you’re tweeting about it.

We all want instant gratification now and that’s at the sacrifice of actually taking two full years to make a great album or more than a day to create a great riff.  The tradeoff is that we have 61 food options that take less than 10 minutes to get from synapse to taste buds.  We have television that is on demand which is now dwindling in the light of streaming media.  Kissing on the first date used to be taboo.  Now dating on the first sex is the standard.  Man this is good.  Essentially, Razzball has to thank all of the crappy bands of the 2000s for much of our success!  That and Grey and Rudy…  Fantasy sports have become as popular as the real thing.  Not to be outdone by (as your mother would call it) the daily fantasy.  You can have a new one every day.  DRAFTKINGS!!!  You can hump tomorrow (it’s Wednesday) but today you’re gonna DraftKings!!!  And if you’re gonna partake, don’t forget the DFS porn.  We won’t make you work or pay for your info or your winnings.  We got Steam-O-Nator, HitterTron and DFSBot to wet your whistle.  Tools of the trade, ya’ll.

Please, blog, may I have some more?