Greetings Razzball nation, and welcome to another edition of The Numbers Game. Suffering through a long week at work? Looking for a break? Come along with me on a trip to a little town called Splitsville (disclaimer: not a real place). I guarantee you that we’ll have a delightful time there (satisfaction not guaranteed). At the very least, I have a lukewarm inclination that this post will help to pass the time during your afternoon trip to the can (sure, why not). I’ll take it!Please, blog, may I have some more?
Let’s look at some potential homerun decliners based on the following “Power Score” or expected homerun (xHR) formula and compare it to their actual homerun totals. Here is the formula:
Plate Appearances(PA)*Contact Rate(Ct%)*Outfield flyball rate(OFFB%)*Homerun per Outfield Flyball ratio(HR/OFFB).
Make sense? Sure it does: How many homeruns does a player hit per outfield flyball? How much of their contact results in an outfield flyball? How much overall contact does a batter make when swinging the bat in a plate appearance? This should provide us with an expected HR total.
The below lists are ranked by the largest actual HR-expected HR differentials. Their HR related performance (PA, Ct, OFFB, HR/OFFB) is listed along with their average homerun and flyball average distance and rank.
Two contingencies worth noting at this time: 1) Our samples size still isn’t huge and 2) We’re not taking into account platoon hitters, i.e. Scott Van Slyke as a right-hand hitter only raking against left-hand pitchers. So when I extrapolate the data, keep this in mind. In other words, if Scott Van Slyke consumed more playing time against right-hand pitchers, there’s a good chance his performance/power would drop off.
Here are the top potential HR decliners (I think you will see the value of this xHR comp immediately):Please, blog, may I have some more?
Rock and Roll. Chuck Berry, Bo Diddley and and Little Richard got it going. Elvis made it sexy. The Beatles made it ok to admit you liked it. Led Zeppelin and Pink Floyd made it hallucinogenic. The Stones and Aerosmith kept it alive. Motley Crue and Skid Row made it pretty and disgusting. Then Sean Combs, alias TBD, got the idea to sample all of it–to middling results. And other dudes annihilated it. Thanks Nickelback and Creed and Puddle of Mudd and Dookie and the Bunghole Fish. No really, thank you! Cuz now it’s far more exciting to concern ourselves with sports, fantasy sports, boob jobs and bacon creations. Drinking is now an acceptable way to pass the day as long as you’re tweeting about it.
We all want instant gratification now and that’s at the sacrifice of actually taking two full years to make a great album or more than a day to create a great riff. The tradeoff is that we have 61 food options that take less than 10 minutes to get from synapse to taste buds. We have television that is on demand which is now dwindling in the light of streaming media. Kissing on the first date used to be taboo. Now dating on the first sex is the standard. Man this is good. Essentially, Razzball has to thank all of the crappy bands of the 2000s for much of our success! That and Grey and Rudy… Fantasy sports have become as popular as the real thing. Not to be outdone by (as your mother would call it) the daily fantasy. You can have a new one every day. DRAFTKINGS!!! You can hump tomorrow (it’s Wednesday) but today you’re gonna DraftKings!!! And if you’re gonna partake, don’t forget the DFS porn. We won’t make you work or pay for your info or your winnings. We got Steam-O-Nator, HitterTron and DFSBot to wet your whistle. Tools of the trade, ya’ll.Please, blog, may I have some more?