Let’s look at some potential homerun decliners based on the following “Power Score” or expected homerun (xHR) formula and compare it to their actual homerun totals. Here is the formula:

Plate Appearances(PA)*Contact Rate(Ct%)*Outfield flyball rate(OFFB%)*Homerun per Outfield Flyball ratio(HR/OFFB).

Make sense? Sure it does: How many homeruns does a player hit per outfield flyball? How much of their contact results in an outfield flyball? How much overall contact does a batter make when swinging the bat in a plate appearance? This should provide us with an expected HR total.

The below lists are ranked by the largest actual HR-expected HR differentials. Their HR related performance (PA, Ct, OFFB, HR/OFFB) is listed along with their average homerun and flyball average distance and rank.

Two contingencies worth noting at this time: 1) Our samples size still isn’t huge and 2) We’re not taking into account platoon hitters, i.e. Scott Van Slyke as a right-hand hitter only raking against left-hand pitchers. So when I extrapolate the data, keep this in mind. In other words, if Scott Van Slyke consumed more playing time against right-hand pitchers, there’s a good chance his performance/power would drop off.

Here are the top potential HR decliners (I think you will see the value of this xHR comp immediately):

Please, blog, may I have some more?

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We all want instant gratification now and that’s at the sacrifice of actually taking two full years to make a great album or more than a day to create a great riff.  The tradeoff is that we have 61 food options that take less than 10 minutes to get from synapse to taste buds.  We have television that is on demand which is now dwindling in the light of streaming media.  Kissing on the first date used to be taboo.  Now dating on the first sex is the standard.  Man this is good.  Essentially, Razzball has to thank all of the crappy bands of the 2000s for much of our success!  That and Grey and Rudy…  Fantasy sports have become as popular as the real thing.  Not to be outdone by (as your mother would call it) the daily fantasy.  You can have a new one every day.  DRAFTKINGS!!!  You can hump tomorrow (it’s Wednesday) but today you’re gonna DraftKings!!!  And if you’re gonna partake, don’t forget the DFS porn.  We won’t make you work or pay for your info or your winnings.  We got Steam-O-Nator, HitterTron and DFSBot to wet your whistle.  Tools of the trade, ya’ll.

Please, blog, may I have some more?