The Cubs’ MLB-ready talent doesn’t extend too far beyond Anthony Rizzo and Brett Jackson. A few relief prospects and a backup catcher could crack the big league roster, but there aren’t a slew of guys here who are ready to contribute in the majors. Even so, Rizzo and Jackson alone are sufficient to generate fantasy buzz. And behind them, the Cubs have youthful types like Matt Szczur, Javier Baez and Dillon Maples.
Of all their additions this offseason, none is more important than Theo. The Cubs are finally setting smart, long-term goals through emphasizing scouting and player development. They’ve partnered with Bloomberg Sports, who will develop custom information systems and support data-driven decision-making. They’re dumping Major League dead weight and they’re building from within. They seem to be heading in the right direction.
Arizona Fall League Players – Mesa Solar Sox
Jeff Beliveau (LHP); Chris Carpenter (RHP); Andrew Cashner (RHP); Marcus Hatley (RHP); Trey McNutt (RHP); Junior Lake (SS); D.J. LeMahieu (2B); Josh Vitters (OF); Brett Jackson (OF)
Although Soriano and Byrd remain, it seems only a matter of time before one (or both) is shipped elsewhere, making room for Jackson in the Chicago outfield. Grey previews Jackson here. It’s a great write-up mostly because of the dong joke (dong jokes get me every time), but I tend to agree with the non-dong-related content. I just used the word “dong” four times while discussing Brett Jackson. That places me second all-time behind Phil Rogers.
Grey discusses Donkey Kong Jr.’s 2012 outlook here. Rizzo, of course, now has a new team, a new ballpark and new teammates. Long-term, the new environment certainly helps Rizzo. But for 2012, I don’t think much needs to be changed from Grey’s projection, although 25 homers is probably a fair assessment, now. Rizzo will likely begin 2012 in Iowa. Bryan LaHair will hold his place in Chicago in the meantime. I expect Rizzo up by midseason.
There’s a good chance he’ll serve as Geovany Soto’s backup in 2012. .238 ISO at Triple-A in 2011 reflects nice pop for a catcher, even in the PCL. Soto, like many other Cubs regulars, is a trade candidate and Castillo would step into a starting role should a trade occur. He’ll be worth adding across all formats if he’s ever getting regular AB’s.
I suspect that Theo will, at some point, be shopping Marmol. That is, if he isn’t already. And if the Cubs are so lucky to unload their closer, Dolis seems like a good candidate to take on the role, as his high 90s sinking fastball can be utterly unhittable. He’ll likely start 2012 at Triple-A where he’ll work on secondary pitches and overall command, but he’ll be up before long.
Carpenter is a power righty who projects as a setup man. When his command is with him, he’s tough to hit, but he has struggled in that regard. Carpenter is pretty much a two-pitch guy with a high 90s fastball and high 80s slider. He should be ready to join the Cubs bullpen full-time in 2012.
Vitters moderate improvement at Double-A in 2011, slashing .283/.322/.448. But it’s still hardly the production that the Cubs would like to see out of their 3rd overall pick in 2007. At just 22, there is still time for him to polish his tools and start progressing, but he’ll need to begin doing so quickly.
McNutt struggled at Tennessee in 2011 and is probably in for a return to Double-A in 2012. For a power pitcher with a plus fastball and plus curve, it’s concerning that his strikeout ratios aren’t at all impressive (6.2 K/9 in 2011). A prospect with this kind of stuff shouldn’t be ignored, however. If he can improve his command, the ratios will fall in line and he could find himself pitching at Wrigley come September.
Jackson’s had a rough couple of years at Triple-A, but the Cubs haven’t yet lost faith. An initiative of Epstein’s has been to glean his rotation from a hoard of Major League-caliber pitching. Jackson still has the stuff to be included in that hoard.
Chicago Cubs 2010 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America (2010):
2010 (15) | 2009 (27) | 2008 (20) | 2007 (18) | 2006 (15) | 2005 (10) | 2004 (7)
Record of Major League Team and Affiliates
Majors: [75 – 87] NL Central
AAA: [82 – 62] Pacific Coast League – Iowa
AA: [86 – 53] Southern League – Tennessee
A+: [75 – 64] Florida State League – Daytona
A: [71 – 66] Midwest League – Peoria
A(ss): [34 – 41] Northwest League – Boise
R: [26 – 29] Arizona League
The Run Down
The Cubs received Matt Garza and Fernando Perez for pitcher Chris Archer, outfielders Brandon Guyer, Sam Fuld, catcher Robinson Chirinos, and shortstop Hak-Ju Lee. According to Keith Law, the Rays received a better deal than the Royals did for Grienke and, “Although their package of players is, collectively, further away than what the Royals got,” Law also stated,”Hak-Ju Lee is the star of the deal.” Seems like a lot for Garza. Subsequently, The North Siders made a play for now while the Rays restocked their system. Speaking of systems, the Cubs went from some intriguing players to “Who’s behind Brett Jackson?” Fernando Perez could be another Franklin Gutierrez, but that might be stretching his talent; defensively, he’s a stud, hitting-wise he’s average, health-wise he makes Rickie Weeks look like an iron man. They also just made a trade with Washington sending Tom Gorzelanny for prospects (LHP) Graham Hicks, (RHP) A.J. Morris, and (OF) Michael Burgess. This adds some depth in the minor leagues and clears pitching space on the major league squad. I make mention of just Michael Burgess in this article. This aging team has few immediate fillers in the minors, then again, I didn’t think Starlin Castro was going to be ready for 2010 and I was quite wrong. Oh, and Josh Vitters is still floundering. Beyond the top few prospects, this system feels shallow, a lot of their talent is in the low minors (i.e. Rookie Leagues and Single-A).
Arizona Fall League Players Mesa Solar Sox
Pitchers: #28 (RHP) David Cales; #8 (RHP) Chris Carpenter; (RHP) Jake Muyco; (RHP) Kyle Smit
Hitters: #9 (3B) Ryan Flaherty; #3 (3B) Josh Vitters; #2 (CF) Brett Jackson
Players of Interest Hitters #3 Josh Vitters | 3B | D.o.B: 8-27-89 | Stats (A+/AA): .247/.312/.405 | 316 AB | 30 XBH | 10 Hr | .158 ISO | 6/1 SB/CS | 63:21 K:BB | .341 BABIP (A+); .247 BABIP (AA)
Vitters’ highlights from Baseball America, “compact stroke for a power hitter … 25 to 30 home runs … potential .300 hitter … strong arm … below-average runner … on course to hit major in 2011.” His numbers this year looked better than in past years, but that was due to smashing High-A. Career-wise, his numbers look, well, I’ll just put them up:
Career AA (’10): .223/.292/.383 | 206 AB | 19 XBH | 7 Hr | 41:13 K:BB
Career A+ (’09, ’10): .258/.294/.381 | 299 AB | 23 XBH | 6 Hr | 45:13 K:BB
Not pretty. John Sickels has a good take on Vitters, “[Vitters is tough to analyze as] [H]is strengths are obvious … he has a beautiful swing … tremendous bat speed, one of the quickest in the minors … easily makes contact and seldom strikeouts. Power to all fields. On defense, has a strong arm and fairly mobile … BUT for all the strengths, there are some negatives … walk rate is incredibly low … swings at [pitches] even if it is a pitch that he can’t do much with.” Sounds like Delmon Young, except he thrived in the minors. He’s still young, has the pedigree to warrant another year of review, and has the skills. ETA won’t be 2011 like BA stated. I’d expect more along the lines of 2012. For further details, see Scouting the Unknown.
#9 (WAS) Michael Burgess | RF | D.o.B: 10-20-89 | Stats (AA/AAA): .265/.357/.465 | 460 AB | 50 XBH | 18 Hr | .200 ISO | 5/2 SB/CS | 116:57 K:BB | BABIP (AA: .307 ; AAA: .366)
From the Washington Nationals Minor League Review: Burgess possesses plus-plus raw power but has a long swing and can’t hit breaking pitches or change-ups. Obviously, coaches are working on his batting mechanics. Historically, he has struggled against lefties (.227/.318/.307 in 2009). Scouts and coaches rave about his motivation to improve and strong work ethic. His defense is steadily improving but isn’t an asset beyond his plus arm that is accurate (had 26 assists in 2008). Don’t expect many steals as he’s a below-average runner. Sounds like Michael Cuddyer without the nagging injuries. I would expect 25 home runs with a .275 average, at best, in the majors if given a full season – even during his prime.
#2 Brett Jackson | CF | D.o.B: 8-2-88 | Stats (A+/AA): .297/.395/.493 | 491 AB | 58 XBH | 12 Hr | .196 ISO | 30/11 SB/CS | 126:73 K:BB | .395 BABIP (A+); .352 BABIP (AA)
I’ll quote my Scouting the Unknown article and let you read the rest, “I see a 20 homer, 30 steals, and a .270 to .280 average in his fantasy future.” Future may equal prime, just a heads up. Struggled more at Double-A, but still hit well (263 AB.316/.420/.517 (A+) | 228 AB .276/.366/.465 (AA)).
#27 Welington Castillo | C | D.o.D: 4-24-87 | Stats (AAA): .255/.317/.498 | 239 AB | 31 XBH | 13 Hr | .243 ISO | 0/2 SB/CS | 58:19 K:BB | .274 BABIP
The trade of Robinson Chirinos, a 27 year old catcher, clears room for Castillo to take over as the Cubs best catching prospect; technically Castillo was considered the better prospect before the trade due to his age. “Never has shown much plate discipline … sold out for power … best tool is his arm strength … sloppy receiver.” Thanks, Baseball America. Unless his scouting report changes much from preseason 2010, I think Castillo works best as a backup and pinch hitter.
Marquez Smith | 3B | D.o.B: 3-20-86 | Stats (AAA): .314/.384/.574 | 303 AB | 44 XBH | 17 Hr | .260 ISO | 2/0 SB/CS | 70:31 K:BB | .358 BABIP
I have to go back to Baseball America’s 2009 Handbook, “quick wrists … reasonable disciplined approach … [could hit] for decent average and some power … [fairly] athletic … versatile defender with strong arm.” It’s not like his 2009 season was poor, he hit .280/.339/.441 with 45 extra-base-hits and a 82-to-33 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Not sure why he was omitted for this year’s edition. His 2010 stats looked better due to a high batting average on balls in play (.358 BABIP) and a small sampling of at-bats (303 AB). Not like it completely matters when you expect a normal BABIP to reduce his stats to his 2009 season. He is a marginalized prospect with versatility, much like Casey McGehee. Matter of fact, they have very similar career paths. Will need injury to make the majors.
Pitchers #5 Jay Jackson | RHP | D.o.B: 10-27-87 | Stats (AAA): 6.8 K/9 | 2.7 BB/9 | 157 1/3 IP | 4.63 ERA | 4.50 FIP | 1.29 WHIP | 1.1 Hr/9 | 8.8 H/9 | .291 BABIP
Throws four average or slightly-better pitches, a 90 to 95 MPH fastball, a mid-80s slider, a curveball, and an “effective” changeup. The two negatives from his 2010 season (1) diminishing strikeout rate and (2) home run rate. Nevertheless, Jay Jackson looks like a back of the rotation innings eater. With Garza coming over in a trade, I don’t think we see Jackson unless there is an injury or three.
#8 Chris Carpenter | RHP | D.o.B: 12-26-85 | Stats (AA): 7.5 K/9 | 3.4 BB/9 | 119 2/3 IP | 3.16 ERA | 3.45 FIP | 1.39 WHIP | .4 Hr/9 | 8.9 H/9 | .319 BABIP
An injury risk, with a medical history to make Dr. Freeze happy. He had Tommy John surgery in 2005 and another elbow surgery in 2006. Carpenter throws a 91 to 94 MPH fastball with movement and can touch 97; a slurve that flashes into a biting slider and a changeup that still needs work. John Sickels states that his ceiling is a number two starter if his control remains in-check or a number four starter. Or you know, another power arm in their bullpen. Carpenter did throw 15 innings at Triple-A (3 starts), but is riding the same boat as J.Jackson, waiting for another injury – not his – to make the majors.
Mitch Atkins | RHP | D.o.B: 10-1-85 | Stats (AAA): 6.4 K/9 | 3.5 BB/9 | 106 2/3 IP | 3.63 ERA | 4.75 FIP | 1.32 WHIP | 1.6 Hr/9 | 10.1 H/9 | .272 BABIP
A mediocre pitcher at best. Throws a 88 to 92 MPH fastball with some sinking action, a cutter, a potential solid-average curveball, and a changeup. The “potential solid-average” from the 2009 Baseball America Handbook should tell the whole story. I could see him getting a spot start as he has good command and pitches to contact. Seems like these type of pitchers get the spot starts. I’d avoid this past Cubs Minor League Pitcher of the Year (2008).
Honorable Mentions Hitters Russ Canzler | 1B/3B | D.o.B: 4-11-86 | Stats (AA): .287/.372/.566 | 355 AB | 53 XBH | 21 Hr | .279 ISO | 5/4 SB/CS | 95:46 K:BB | .332 BABIP
More for minor league depth than major hype, Canzler has shown good statistical production in the last two years. Too bad he is playing with his same age-cohort. Has moderate power and decent strikeout-to-walk ratio. Not exciting, could see him as trade bait.
Tony Thomas | 2B | D.o.B: 7-10-86 | Stats (AA): .276/.338/.485 | 402 AB | 51 XBH | 11 Hr | .209 ISO | 15/2 SB/CS | 100:33 K:BB | .338 BABIP
From the 2009 Baseball America Handbook, “quick hands … aggressive swing … average runner … [defense] leaves something to be desired.” Smells of utility fielder, not what the Cubs were hoping for their round three pick in 2007.
Pitchers #16 Trey McNutt | RHP | D.o.B: 8-2-89 | Stats (A/A+/AA): 10.2 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 116 1/3 IP | 2.48 ERA | 2.16 FIP (A); 2.57 FIP (A+); (AA?) | 1.12 WHIP | .4 Hr/9 | 7.2 H/9 | BABIP?
Fangraphs did not have any advanced stats for McNutt, but their own Marc Hulet has him ranked as the Cubs second overall prospect, saying he throws a 93 to 96 MPH fastball, a “good” curveball, and an “improving” changeup. Had a 1.17 GO/AO too. Currently is under the radar. This would be one prospect to watch early next year to judge his value.
Chicago Cubs 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America:
2009 (27) | 2008 (20) | 2007 (18) | 2006 (15) | 2005 (10) | 2004 (7)
Record of Major League Team and Affiliates
Majors: 83 – 78 (NL Central)
AAA: 72 – 72 (Pacific Coast League)
AA: 71 – 69 (Southern League)
A+: 64 – 71 (Florida State League)
A: 81 – 57 (Midwest League)
A(ss): 34 – 52 (Northwest League)
R: 29 – 27 (Arizona League)
The Run Down
Two really interesting factoids from Baseball America’s preview on the 2009 Cubs, factoid number 1 – “Chicago hasn’t gotten long-term production out of a first-round pick since Kerry Wood in 1995; factoid number 2 – other than Geovany Soto, who as drafted in round 11 in 2001, they “haven’t developed a position player it signed into an All-Star since they drafted Joe Girardi in 1986.” With a couple of trades this past year (Sean Gallagher and catcher Josh Donaldson for Rich Harden; Jose Ceda (#4 ranked prospect) for Kevin Gregg) the Cubs traded away a third of their top ten prospects. Through trades in the recent past, Chicago has built a contender each year at the expense of their farm system.
After another disappointing season on the north side, the Cubs have several pressing issues about their team. Milton Bradley was a flop, Rich Harden is a free agent, Alfonso Soriano got old really fast, and second base was a tale of two halves. Bradley looks like he on his way out of town, Harden may be too costly to keep around, Soriano is on the tail end of his career, and there are few solid options from within to replace the outfield spot of Bradley let alone another injury ravaged season of Soriano. On a positive note, Derrek Lee was his old self hitting 35 homers and .306/.394/.579, Randy Wells came out of nowhere to have an extraordinarily great rookie year, and Ryan Theriot provided good defense and sufficient offense from the shortstop position.
Arizona Fall League Players – Mesa Solar Sox
Andrew Cashner, John Gaub, Blake Parker, James Russell – All SP
Welington Castilo (C) ,Starlin Castro (SS), Josh Vitters (3B)
Players of Interest *A number prior to a player’s name indicates Baseball America’s 2009 prospect Ranking
#1 – Josh Vitters | 3B | A/A+ | 19 | totals – .284/.314/.456 | 458 AB | 18 HR | .172 ISO | 65:12 K:BB
If you’ve been reading Razzball all summer, you would have saw here that I wasn’t sold on Vitters being a stud major league hitter in his career. This isn’t to start a debate, but a harsh analysis on Vitters may not be terrible. Each prospect has their pros and cons. I will look at Vitters again next summer and see where he is at. His overall total numbers look pretty good, but he struggled at High-A this year. Look at his slash line at each level:
A – .316/.351/.535 in 269 AB
A+ – .238/.260/.344 in 189 AB
Not what you want your hitter doing upon a promotion; granted his BABIP at Single-A was .330 and at High-A was .258 indicating he was having some “bad-luck.” He is only 19, is a level-or-so above his age, but his walk ratio will start to become a larger red flag as he progresses through the minors unless he can change his walking ways. He still is one of the best young hitting prospects in the entire majors, so patience may be a HUGE key (and for me, as well).
Kyler Burke | OF | A | 21 | .303/.405/.505 | 465 AB | 43 2B | 15 HR | .202 ISO | 99:78 K:BB
2009 was a career year for Burke. He cut his strikeout rate by a third and increased his walk-rate from 7.7% to 14.4% since 2008. With an aging outfield in Chicago, he may be a bright spot if he can reproduce these numbers at higher levels. Take this all with a grain of salt, this year was his first full year at Single-A, but he has had half seasons there in the past two seasons.
#10 – Hak-Ju Lee | SS | A(ss) | 18 | .330/.399/.420 | 264 AB | .090 ISO | 25/8 SB/CS | 50:31 K:BB | .401 BABIP
Chicago’s big international signing out of Korea did pretty well for his first year in America. He looks to be a light hitting, defensive shortstop with some speed. Keep in mind he had an extremely high batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Being so young, his ceiling is still sky high. Look for him to play at Single-A in 2010 and ideally progress to Double-A by the end of ’10.
#7 – Starlin Castro | SS | A+/AA | 19 | totals – .299/.432/.392 | 429 AB | .093 ISO | 28/11 SB/CS | 53:29 K:BB
Another prized shortstop in the Cubs organization put things together this year. The upper brass is really hoping that Theriot can keep the spot warm for Castro. He has more speed than his steals would even lead one to believe as he is still learning the stealing craft. Playing predominately at Single-A, his late season promotion to Double-A proved that he could handle the higher competition. Look for him to start at Double-A in 2010, even if he performs above expectations at Arizona this fall.
#3 – Andrew Cashner | SP (RHP) | A+/AA | 22 | totals – 6.7 K/9 | 3.8 BB/9 | 100 1/3 IP | 2.60 ERA | 1.18 WHIP
Once he was promoted to Double-A his stats started to fall. Both his strikeouts and walks took large hits at Double-A. One positive is he only gave up one homer all season. His ranking should take a hit as he didn’t produce like a top prospect. If he has a strong Fall League performance, he may be nearing a mid-season look or September call up in 2010. Look for him to start in Double-A.
#9 – Jay Jackson | SP (RHP) | A+/AA/AAA| 22 | totals – 9 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 127 IP | 2.98 ERA | 1.22 WHIP
His level spread is a bit deceiving as he only started and pitched in one game at Triple-A. Once he started pitching in Double-AA his walk rate went from .8 BB/9 in 36 1/3 innings at High-A to 4.2 BB/9 in 82 2/3 innings at Double-A. His dominance in High-A is truly what makes his stats look really impressive. He might start 2010 in Double-A, waiting for the warmer weather of the Pacific Coast games, or could start in Triple-A. Either way, he should be given the chance to play in the majors next summer.
Jeff Antigua | SP (LHP) | A(ss)/A | 19 | totals – 8.9 K/9 | 2.5 BB/9 | 68 2/3 IP | 3.01 ERA | .99 WHIP
A little under the radar, Antigua pitched brilliantly aside from his seven home runs he gave up. Being left-handed will increase his stock greatly as the Cubs don’t have many top left-handed prospects. He’ll probably start again in Single-A with a mid-season promotion to Double-A.
Honorable Mentions Brett Jackson | OF | R/A(ss)/A | 20
Drafted number 31 in the 2009 draft. Hit seven of his eight homers, 11 of his 13 stolen bases, and five of his six doubles at Single-A.
Rebel Ridling | 1B | A | 23
As both ranked first basemen above him in the Cubs organization have graduated, look for Ridling to be a prospect rated in the low twenties for 2010. He finally produced in his second year at Single-A. He cut his strikeouts by nearly half, almost doubled his walk rate (not hard when you start so low), yet he still has a long ways to be more than organizational depth.
#16 – Tyler Colvin | OF | A+/AA | 23
Actually got promoted in September with three hits in 17 at-bats.
#8 – Ryan Flaherty | 3B/2B | A | 22
Hit 20 homers in 485 at-bats while producing an above average slash line of .276/.344/.470 and a decent K:BB of 98:50.
#18 – Chris Carpenter | SP (RHP) | A/A+/AA | 23
Finally moved up a few levels to match his talent and age. Still performed below expectations at each level besides Single-A, while pitching the best overall at High-A
