Fantasy Baseball Advice

This is the league we won last year hosted by Scott White of CBS Sports.  Yay, us.  Okay, new year, new league.  Well, not so fast.  Last year’s league coasted through the season in first place from about May on and if you were industrious enough to click on that link, you’ll see it looks like a bit of a mess.  We won with Freddy Sanchez and Skip Schumaker?  We didn’t just win; we won in a walk.  I don’t tell you to beat into your heads how good we are (maybe a little).  I tell you this so you know how deep the league is you’re about to look at.  No, I don’t like Clint Barmes, but if he’s getting ABs at MI in this here league, he’s worth a roster spot.  Anyway, here’s our 2012 fantasy baseball team with thoughts on different draft picks:

For sake of clarity:  12 teams, NL-Only, Roto, 5 x 5 — C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, Util, BN, BN, BN — P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL

C – Ryan Hanigan $4
C – Geovany Soto $11
1B – Gaby Sanchez $17
2B – Aaron Hill $13
3B – Pablo Sandoval $24
SS – Alex Gonzalez $3
MI – Clint Barmes $6
CI – Ryan Zimmerman $26
OF – Jay Bruce $27
OF – Tony Campana $5
OF – Jason Kubel $10
OF – Laynce Nix $0 (free round)
OF – Justin Upton $36
U – Gerardo Parra $1
Bench – Stephen Lombardozzi $0 (free round)
Bench – Chase d’Arnaud $0 (free round)
Bench – Tony Gwynn $0 (free round)
Bench – Brett Jackson $4

P – Trevor Cahill $10
P – Daniel Hudson $19
P – Anibal Sanchez $14
P – Ricky Nolasco $4
P – Juan Nicasio $4
P – Chris Narveson  $1
P – Aaron Harang $2
P – Javy Guerra $11
P – Luke Gregerson $8
Bench – Brad Lidge $0 (free round)
Bench – Brandon Lyon $0 (free round)
Bench – Travis Wood $0 (free round)

THAT’S NOT SAGNOF… THIS IS SAGNOF!

Saves and steals were going for really high prices.  Marmol, who I like, went for $18 (a price I don’t like him at), Axford went for $18, Madson at $19… The list goes on; I won’t bore you (further).  So we overpaid for Gregerson praying he would sneak some saves and we have Guerra.  Um, blech.  We’ll need to acquire some saves off waivers or in a trade, which is totally doable, so there’s that.  For those with an advanced degree from the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston, Kenley Jansen went for $8, but it was early in the draft and we didn’t know we’d be hamstrung without saves.  Yes, in hindsight, the right move would’ve been to get Jansen, but then we would’ve been paying $19 for all of the Dodgers saves, which is kinda absurd.  As for the other half of SAGNOF, our team felt pretty lead-footed so we grabbed Campana to kill those cockroaches.  With only the crap-oika of Byrd, Soriano and DeJesus ahead of him, ABs should be had.  At $5, if he gets 25 steals, he’s a bargain.  To back up that gamble, we invested in Brett Jackson.  When he is called up, we’ll be a strong bargaining chip or we just insert him in our lineup over, say, Laynce Nix.

RICKY NOLASCO IS A FRIEND OF RAZZBALL? OH, HELLS NO

As kinda alluded to in the lede, in a league this deep, you’re not going to have a team where you like all the guys.  Maybe I’ll grow to like Nolasco, but at $4 we just need him to have 150 Ks and an ERA south of 4.50.  I kinda hate his guts though, so I hope that hatred doesn’t manifest itself into self-fulfilling prophecy where he gives us a 7.50 ERA.  Aaron Harang isn’t really a friend of Razzball either, but you know what makes up for all of this?  Sweet, sweet Anibal!  (Please let his shoulder be okay.  Thank you, whoever I’m addressing right now.)

“YOU ALWAYS TELL US NOT TO TAKE BENCH BATS.  WHAT GIVES YOU, GOOFTARD?!”

It’s a deep, weekly league and we need some flexibility when the best bat on waivers is Henry Blanco.  For most of you, you don’t need four bench bats, three of which are in the minors.  In very deep leagues, you should take some bench bats.  A 12 team, mixed league isn’t a very deep league.  How do you know when you’re in a deep league?  When you’re looking at starting Rico Suave in your Utility spot.

IN OCTOBER, I HAVE AN APPOINTMENT FOR SEX WITH JAY BRUCE

I hope.  Or I’m gonna wanna kill him, because as mentioned in the podcast and multiple times on the site, people are lower than I am on Bruce this year and I’m getting him everywhere.  I mean, like, everywhere everywhere.  I may end up with him on an AL-Only team.  Why are people down on Bruce?  I’m confounded in my perplexatude!  (Perplexatude isn’t yet a word, but I’m gonna start a grassroots campaign to try to change that.)  Bruce just came off a great year and he’s still young.  What, you people need me to shine a flashlight on him like how Ron Roenicke gets Nyjer Morgan’s attention?

ESPN fantasy baseball rankings are the same old shizz, different effin’ year.  We’ll get to them in a second.  I gotta build up my anger.  Right now, I’m feeling downright jovial because I just watched the coup de grâce of unintentional comedy — ESPN’s Rankings Roundtables.  If you have a few minutes, watch a part of one.  You don’t need to watch the whole thing, unless you’re into Gitmo’ing yourself.  A few things I noticed from watching a minute of one:  1) Cockcroft looks like he wants to stab Berry in the eye with Stephania Bell’s injury reports.  2) The general air surrounding the proceedings is everyone in the room knows what a bad idea the roundtables are because then people will get to see the methodology behind their rankings is Berry whining, “But guys!”  3) Brendan Roberts sits with his hands folded, trying not to get called on.  But what the casual viewer is missing is Brendan’s also mumbling to Cockcroft to nudge him if he falls asleep.  4) They are in a bare room, but sitting in what appears to be Louis Vuitton chairs.  5) Brendan Roberts gelled his hair for this.  6) I wish they sat Karabell and Cockcroft together so it would look like an Office Space reunion with Michael Bolton and Milton.

I don’t bring these videos up simply because there’s a lack of unintentional comedy since Kim Jong-il passed and can no longer look at things.  I think it gives you an eye into the belly of the beast.  There’s no methodology.  There’s no rhyme or reason.  If you held ESPN’s rankings in any regard before this, now you see their rankings come from a room of guys trying not to upset the head bozo.  So when you see ESPN ranks Michael Bourn 35th overall, you say to yourself, “Yeah, well, the head bozo must’ve wanted him early.”  Then when you see ESPN gives Desmond Jennings the projections of 82/16/51/.256/37, you think that’s great projections, but why is he ranked way down at 104th overall?  There’s no reason!  That’s the take away.  (Side note:  I Googled to see if take away was one word or two.  Didn’t really find a definitive answer, but I found this sentence as an example for take away, “The death of her mother removed the last obstacle to their marriage.”  Huh?  That doesn’t even use take away and the mother dying is the last obstacle for their marriage is the best example they can come up with?  I wonder if Free Dictionary dot com has definition roundtables.  Any hoo…)

There’s some players that stand out with a huge difference between me and ESPN.  One guy I’m going to happily own in multiple leagues is Howie Kendrick.  His ranking on most ‘pert sheets is as puzzling to me as Jay Bruce (which you’ll hear more of if you listen to the podcast that is coming later today.  You can hardly wait.  No, you.  The Razzball Podcast:  Where I sound as sharp as Brendan Roberts’s hair!).  People loved Kendrick for a bunch of years and he disappointed, then he has his best year, is 28 years old, gets Pujols into his lineup and NOW (caps for emphasis, not aesthetics) everyone is down on him.  Hey, Talking Heads, stop making sense.

Next guy that stands out is David Ortiz.  They ranked him 67th overall.  About 120 picks before me.  Then they ranked Adam Lind about 70 spots after Ortiz while giving them nearly the same projections.  Sure, Ortiz is 8 years older so, I guess, he’s got experience.  What he doesn’t have is position eligibility.  I guess it’s better to take a 36-year-old utility man in the 6th round and wait on a 28-year-old 1st baseman.  Yeah, I have no idea either.  My head is starting to hurt, so I’m gonna move on.

Boy, everyone hates Mark Reynolds.  I know, he doesn’t hit for average, but are we all playing in one category leagues?  If so, let a brother know and say brother like Hulk Hogan.  That would help explain Reynolds and Bourn’s rankings.  According to their own stupid Player Rater, Reynolds was more valuable than Wright, Zimmerman and A-Rod last year.  He was nearly as valuable as Longoria, according to them.  Sure, those other 3rd basemen had off years, but you know what Reynolds didn’t have?  An off year.  In fact, in his five year career, if you assume anything .220 or higher is fine for Reynolds, then he’s only had one off year.  I think Ryan Zimmerman has only had one ‘on’ year.  Reynolds ranks 156th overall at ESPN right after… Wait for it… Here it comes… Shoot, I think I left it in the other room… Hold on one second… Okay, here it is… Reynolds is ranked after Carlos Lee!  Wait, huh?!  Next year for their roundtables, they should bring in the real wizard behind the rankings:  The homeless person they bought lunch for at Benihana while they picked his brain.

Below is a rough and tumble charts of where some of the bigger discrepancies were between ESPN and me.  The first chart is where I’m higher on someone, which is 95% (no math done for that number) young guys who I see getting better.  The second chart is where I’m lower on players, which is 95% (still no math!) older guys or guys coming off career years that I don’t have much faith in.  The chart was provided by Fantasy Pros.  I’ll warn you; if you go to that site you might find yourself losing three hours of your life while your loved one threatens divorce.

Player	Position	Grey’s Rank	ESPN’s Rank	Difference
Peter Bourjos	OF	95	239	144
Jose Tabata	OF	149	280	131
Yoenis Cespedes	OF	117	242	125
Trevor Cahill	SP	158	269	111
Ike Davis	1B	98	208	110
Ryan Howard	1B	87	196	109
Danny Valencia	3B	167	268	101
Colby Rasmus	OF	115	206	91
Austin Jackson	OF	169	257	88
Danny Espinosa	2B	102	189	87
Emilio Bonifacio	SS	126	213	87
Alex Rios	OF	114	197	83
Delmon Young	OF	170	252	82
Carlos Quentin	OF	147	224	77
Jhoulys Chacin	SP	157	232	75
Howie Kendrick	2B	46	118	72
Mark Reynolds	3B	84	156	72
Alcides Escobar	SS	186	258	72
Derek Holland	SP	174	244	70
Ian Desmond	SS	166	235	69
Jair Jurrjens	SP	187	256	69
Brennan Boesch	OF	194	261	67
Justin Morneau	1B	205	270	65
Mike Leake	SP	238	300	62
Aaron Hill	2B	151	211	60
Logan Morrison	OF	94	153	59
Mike Moustakas	3B	135	190	55
Dexter Fowler	OF	195	247	52
Adam Lind	1B	85	135	50
Mat Gamel	3B	214	264	50
Jesus Montero	C	139	188	49
Jake Peavy	SP	234	282	48
Kendrys Morales	1B	203	249	46
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	C	247	293	46
Buster Posey	C	82	127	45
Gio Gonzalez	SP	88	132	44
Mark Trumbo	1B	182	226	44
Kevin Youkilis	3B	56	99	43
Vance Worley	SP	209	250	41
Salvador Perez	C	246	287	41
Carlos Marmol	CL	143	183	40
Jonathan Lucroy	C	250	290	40
Michael Young	3B	58	97	39
Drew Stubbs	OF	73	112	39
Brandon Morrow	SP	132	170	38
Kenley Jansen	CL	176	214	38
Anibal Sanchez	SP	101	137	36
Alejandro De Aza	OF	258	294	36
Desmond Jennings	OF	70	104	34
Jason Heyward	OF	75	109	34
Russell Martin	C	249	283	34
Krispie Young	OF	74	107	33
Brandon Belt	1B	202	234	32
Matt Thornton	CL	221	253	32
Madison Bumgarner	SP	50	80	30
Jemile Weeks	2B	172	202	30

 

Player	Position	Grey’s Rank	ESPN’s Rank	Difference
Carlos Beltran	OF	145	115	-30
Jose Altuve	2B	267	237	-30
Mariano Rivera	CL	104	73	-31
Tyler Clippard	MR	282	251	-31
Dee Gordon	SS	165	133	-32
Andrew Bailey	CL	190	158	-32
Jim Johnson	CL	274	241	-33
Sean Rodriguez	2B	278	245	-33
Jered Weaver	SP	65	31	-34
Mike Napoli	C	81	47	-34
David Freese	3B	228	194	-34
Mitch Moreland	OF	261	227	-34
Brandon League	CL	226	191	-35
Chris Perez	CL	273	238	-35
Jason Bartlett	SS	289	254	-35
Ian Kennedy	SP	108	72	-36
Doug Fister	SP	180	144	-36
Ryan Dempster	SP	239	203	-36
Bud Norris	SP	237	198	-39
Tim Hudson	SP	179	139	-40
Jason Motte	CL	177	136	-41
Joel Hanrahan	CL	162	119	-43
Gaby Sanchez	1B	206	162	-44
Neil Walker	2B	211	167	-44
Ben Zobrist	2B	96	51	-45
Kyle Farnsworth	CL	218	172	-46
Matt Moore	SP	121	74	-47
Wandy Rodriguez	SP	213	166	-47
Melky Cabrera	OF	197	149	-48
James Shields	SP	113	64	-49
Alexei Ramirez	SS	136	87	-49
Daniel Murphy	2B	285	236	-49
Tim Stauffer	SP	231	181	-50
Brandon McCarthy	SP	230	179	-51
J.J. Hardy	SS	164	111	-53
Jordan Walden	CL	217	163	-54
Adam Wainwright	SP	155	98	-57
Ichiro Suzuki	OF	148	89	-59
Martin Prado	3B	229	168	-61
Carlos Pena	1B	253	192	-61
Michael Pineda	SP	154	91	-63
Ryan Madson	CL	163	100	-63
Chris Carpenter	SP	142	78	-64
Ted Lilly	SP	232	164	-68
Matt Capps	CL	275	205	-70
Javy Guerra	MR	280	210	-70
Scott Baker	SP	233	157	-76
Jhonny Peralta	SS	204	126	-78
Angel Pagan	OF	262	178	-84
Freddie Freeman	1B	207	120	-87
Daniel Bard	SP	272	185	-87
Yunel Escobar	SS	288	200	-88
Michael Bourn	OF	125	35	-90
John Danks	SP	301	209	-92
Chris Sale	SP	271	177	-94
Jeremy Hellickson	SP	189	93	-96
Jason Kubel	OF	295	199	-96
Josh Willingham	OF	286	184	-102
Rafael Betancourt	CL	220	114	-106
David Ortiz	U	184	66	-118
Stephen Drew	SS	293	160	-133
Carlos Lee	OF	298	155	-143
Hiroki Kuroda	SP	300	147	-153

On one hand, we have Evan Longoria at 7 and Yahoo has him at 13 in their O-Ranks, so we can get Longoria.  On the other hand, they have Dee Gordon at 96 in their O-Ranks and we have him at 165, so we’re not getting Gordon without reaching.  On the lesser known, third hand that is actually a foot wearing a mitten, what on earth is an O-Rank?  Sounds like something a teenager would say when they forgot to take their garbage out for six months.  Alas, I found the definition, “The “O-Rank” is an overall player rank based on current and prior seasons. Since it provides such a full spectrum analysis of a players abilities, the “O-Rank” is the method used for determining auto-picks in our draft for full Yahoo! Fantasy Sports games.”  A full spectrum analysis?  Who wrote this, Stephen Hawking?  I Googled “full spectrum analysis” and Google said “Do you mean gobbledygook?”  Actually, no lie, but the only other time “full spectrum analysis” was used since Al Gore invented the internet was in regards to gamma rays.  I don’t know the first thing about gamma rays, but the term “full spectrum analysis” actually makes sense to me more in regards to gamma rays than fantasy baseball rankings.  Well, whatever the case may be, we’re gonna say Yahoo’s O-Ranks are their rankings.  Key word is rank, I suppose.

“Ooh, I’m a Yahoo ‘pert and I love Michael Bourn and anyone covering Total Eclipse of the Heart.”  That’s Funston and Evans while they compile the rankings and watch The Voice.  They are just as high on Michael Bourn as every other ‘pert this and that side of the Mississippi minus Razzball.  I already went over my thoughts on Bourn’s supremacy and how everyone’s forgot his true identity:  SAGNOF!   Same goes for Curtis Granderson, who I labeled a schmohawk.  At least Yahoo didn’t put him in the top 20, that’s just common Curtis-y.  Pun point!

No one likes Jay Bruce, but me.  Honestly, I have no idea how this happened and it’s about the most puzzling thing going on this preseason.  When Bruce was first called up, the fantasy baseball community embraced him immediately, labeled him Bruuuuuuuuuuce and sold the Ohio Turnpike to the Middle East in his honor as reported by Matt Taibbi.  Now, we’re coming off a season where he finally put everything together and he’s going to be 25 years old.  This is the time to move on from him?  I nearly put Bruce in my top 20 overall (ended up just outside of it at 27) and Yahoo has him at 51.  I’ll happily go with Bruce in every league, and that’s not just the Jersey in me talking.  Though I do write with one hand and fist pump with the other.

Rather than going through all of their wonky player rankings, I’ve made a chart.  “Yo, Differences Between My Rankings and O-Ranks, you’ve been charted!”  The positive numbers mean you have a good chance of getting those players if you follow my rankings.  The negative numbers mean Yahoo’s ranked these players higher than me.  Help for this chart was provided by frequent commenters, MattTruss223 and Cheese.  Promotional consideration was provided by Wheat Thins, “Now go eat yourself thin!”

Some of the Biggest Differences Between Grey’s Rankings and O-Ranks
Player	Grey’s	Y!	Difference
Jay Bruce	27	51	24
Dan Uggla	33	48	15
Curtis Granderson	38	22	-16
Howie Kendrick	46	72	26
Madison Bumgarner	50	80	30
Chase Utley	54	71	17
Aramis Ramirez	55	74	19
Lance Berkman	57	86	29
Brian McCann	60	83	23
Matt Wieters	61	90	29
Jered Weaver	65	35	-30
C.J. Wilson	66	88	22
Desmond Jennings	70	43	-27
Krispie Young	74	122	48
Brett Gardner	79	111	32
Jayson Werth	80	108	28
Mike Napoli	81	53	-28
Mark Reynolds	84	143	59
Adam Lind	85	155	70
Billy Butler	86	119	33
Gio Gonzalez	88	118	30
Matt Cain	89	54	-35
Stephen Strasburg	91	57	-34
Jordan Zimmermann	93	130	37
Peter Bourjos	95	144	49
Ben Zobrist	96	52	-44
Anibal Sanchez	101	156	55
Danny Espinosa	102	253	151
Mariano Rivera	104	76	-28
Alex Rios	114	168	54
Michael Bourn	125	67	-58
Emilio Bonifacio	126	174	48
Vernon Wells	141	229	88
Carlos Quentin	147	210	63
Aaron Hill	151	264	113
Michael Pineda	154	114	-40
Adam Wainwright	155	99	-56
Dee Gordon	165	96	-69

Okay, so it’s not the best 2012 fantasy baseball team, but, man, that title sings, right?  This is the best 2012 fantasy baseball team that I can put together when drafting from my top 100 for 2012 fantasy baseball and top 300 for 2012 fantasy baseball.  Honestly, I could draft another 25 teams from those lists, and they’d all be different.  If I took Longoria in the 1st round, everything after it would change.  For this exercise, I’m taking Swiggy first, because, well, I have him first overall.  Then once I take him at number one, I can’t take another player until the 24th pick, then choose two players within the next 24 picks, then 2 players in the next 24 picks and so on until the end of the top 100.  Just like a snake draft.  It would be nice if I was in a league where someone drafted Halladay, Verlander and Kershaw in the first round and I was able to take Longoria in the 2nd round, but since Miggy and him are in my first 10 picks, according to the rules I’ve set up for myself, I can’t take them both.  Then, as we all know, once you get into the 100′s, there’s wide gaps between ADP and where players are actually taken.  People tend to look at team need over value.  So for this exercise, once I get to pick #101, I’m going to pick two players every twenty picks, rather than every 24 picks.  That’s to account for the wide margin between ADP and where players are drafted.  Finally, because there is so much latitude in the last 100, I gave myself free reign to fill up my team.  Throughout the draft, I also gave myself the ability to reach to a lower draft pick, but not reach forward.  It should still be my ideal team… Or not.  Let’s see, shall we?  Bee tee dubya, this team is 5×5, one catcher, 5 OFs, MI, CI, 1 UT, 9 P, 3 Bench, just like the Razzball Commenter Leagues that are signing up still.  Anyway, here’s the best 2012 fantasy baseball team:

C: Joe Mauer (10)

1B:  Miggy Cabrera (1)

2B:  Chase Utley (5)

3B:  David Wright (2)

SS: Dee Gordon (15)

MI: Zack Cozart (16)

CI: Adam Lind (7)

OF:  Jay Bruce (3)

OF: Drew Stubbs (6)

OF: Andre Ethier (8)

OF: Torii Hunter (12)

OF: Lorenzo Cain (17)

UTIL: Chris Heisey (25)

P:  Madison Bumgarner (4)

P: Anibal Sanchez (9)

P: Matt Moore (11)

P: Jhoulys Chacin (13)

P: Ryan Madson (14)

P: Mike Minor (18)

P: Jordan Walden (19)

P: Kyle Farnsworth (20)

P: Brad Peacock (21)

BENCH:

P:  Ted Lilly (22)

P: Jim Johnson (23)

P: Aroldis Chapman (24)

So what do we learn from that in the most general sense?  You don’t have to draft pitchers early.  For those looking at my staff and thinking it won’t compete, my last year’s staff when I did this dream team post was:

P:  Jon Lester (5)

P: Dan Haren (8)

P: John Axford (13)

P: Daniel Hudson (12)

P: Jhoulys Chacin (14)

P: Chris Perez (15)

P: Craig Kimbrel (17)

P: Mike Minor (18)

P: Jordan Zimmermann (19)

BENCH:

P:  Ryan Madson (20)

P: Jason Motte (21)

P: Rafael Soriano (22)

You can switch Mike Minor out of there for Beachy too, because once he was in the rotation I switched the two of them on all of my teams.  As I’ve said in the past, I may not know a damn thing, but I can pick a pitching staff.  Seriously, Lester, Haren, Hudson and Chacin were all you needed.  Then you throw in Beachy, Madson, Kimbrel and Axford and you have 12′s in every pitching category.  And that’s not considering you could’ve dropped Soriano and picked up a great waiver wire guy.  This shows you that you need to really load up on hitters early, because, as much as you like that late-round-flyer man in the 18th round to be your corner guy, it’s probably not gonna work out for you.  Make sure you have at least two outfielders, a 2nd baseman, 3rd baseman and 1st baseman in the first ten rounds.  In my team above, I even reached way down for Ethier in the 8th round because I wanted to make sure I had an extra bat.  Also, I find myself grabbing Mauer this year to offset Stubbs and other average drains.  No one’s getting anything from catcher, so may as well get some average there if he comes at the right price.  I am not reaching for him.  If he’s there in the 9th to 10th rounds, great.  In the end, this really is just an exercise.  It’s fun though!  For me.  So what do you think of my fantasy fantasy team?  Don’t like it?  Go to the top 300 and make up your own fantasy fantasy team and post it in the comments.  Or not.  Decisions, decisions!

The other day we went over the top 20 third basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball for our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  Today, we turn our bejeweled eyeglasses to the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  The top twenty outfielders will need to go to a top 40 then a top 60 then a top 80.  Unfortunately, outfield is pretty shallow.  Guess outfielders come in waves… much like sperm whales.  Oofa!  For five outfielder leagues, this really blows, which is only a positive if you’re a sperm whale.  Zadow!  As always, these top 20 outfielders are broken up into tiers with my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Ryan Braun – Went over his projections in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

2. Jose Bautista – Went over his projections in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

3. Matt Kemp – Went over his projections in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

4. Justin Upton – Went over his projections in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

5. Jacoby Ellsbury – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

6. Carlos Gonzalez – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

7. Andrew McCutchen – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Pence.  I call this tier, “These players.  ‘What Grey wants in every league, Alex?’”  The outfield isn’t quite as deep as it should be considering there’s three of these suckers playing at any given moment on all teams and the Reds have four.

8. Mike Stanton – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

9. Jay Bruce – What we got from Bruce last year may not have been totally Boss, but a guy that can give you a 30+ homer and 8+ steal season is valuable nowadays.  If Bruce manages to pull a rabbit out of his hat, he could improve in all five categories and there will be a magician somewhere wondering why Jay Bruce has his rabbit.  2012 Projections:  90/34/100/.270/10

10. Josh Hamilton – I think the market has finally figured out Hamilton.  No longer is everyone expecting a MVP season every time out.  People have realized he’s Mr. Glass.  When healthy, Hamilton hits homers and a solid average, runs and RBIs.  When he’s not healthy, you plug in someone else.  In 12 team mixed leagues, it’s much easier to do that than in deep AL-Only ones so keep that in mind when drafting.  (In AL-Only leagues or any leagues with less waiver wire options, I’d move Hamilton down to the next tier.)  2012 Projections:  75/27/85/.295/7

12. Nelson Cruz – Take the above and just “find” Hamilton and “replace” with Cruz.  I think the market has finally figured out Cruz.  No longer is everyone–Well, you can do it on your own.  2012 Projections:  70/30/85/.260/10

12. Hunter Pence – He’s a square peg in this round tier.  Everyone else in this tier has crazy upside and some potential pitfalls.  Pence is steady as she goes, Raconteurs.  Last year he hit a few less homers, but I could see him actually hitting a few more homers this year because he won’t be playing under the tyranny of the recently-exiled Ed Wade’s Toupee.  (Was actually surprised Astros fans weren’t more excited about the disposal of the Toupee, but, then again, I don’t think there are Astros fans.)  2012 Projections:  95/25/100/.280/10

13. Curtis Granderson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Victorino.  I call this tier, “How is this tier different than all other tiers?  This tier I’m going to pass over.”  Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

14. Matt Holliday – I’m done with Holliday until next year or the year after when he falls into the tier of outfielders with guys like Vernon Wells.  He’s still too coveted for what he used to do rather than what he’s about to do.  Oh, and please don’t ask in the comments if this means I would never draft Holliday.  I would take Pence, Cruz and Bruce before him and I’ve seen Holliday taken before them, so how am I drafting Holliday?  I’m not taking four outfielders in the course of one pick, i.e., I’m not drafting Holliday before others so I’m not getting him.  Sorry to longtime readers who had to read that, but I feel like I always get these questions around the time of rankings.  2012 Projections:  85/24/90/.305/5

15. Lance Berkman -  Went over Berkman’s projections at the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball post.

16. Shane Victorino – We had a good run.  Victorino and I.  It’s come to an end.  Howard’s banged up, Utley’s a nail clipping incident away from the 15-day DL and Rollins has more miles on him than your Chrysler LeBaron.  Victorino’s runs and RBIs will be affected.  His speed is affected by his age, and he’s not a big power threat.  If he falls far enough I could see maybe taking him, but it’s time to bid him aloha.  The goodbye version of aloha, that is.  2012 Projections:  85/15/55/.275/20

17. Michael Morse – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here into the top 40 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “I’ll happily reach for one of these guys if I have to, in the non-sexual way.  Though it’s kinda sad this is the third tier of outfielders that I’m excited about.  Times is tough, yo.”  Went over Morse’s projections at the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball post.

18. Desmond Jennings – I already went over my Desmond Jennings 2012 fantasy.  While I wrote it, a leprechaun with a broken GPS looking for a rainbow appeared out my window.  2012 Projections:  80/16/65/.275/35

19. B.J. Upton – Honestly, I might be the only fantasy baseball ‘pert who doesn’t mind Fellatio Upton.  Sure, he hits for a wonky average, but so does your mom.  (Actually, I don’t know how well your mom hits for average.  Though she looks like she can’t leg out many infield hits on those cankles.)  Upton hits for power and steals bases.  I’m willing to go out on a limb that he can luck into a .260 average one of these years with his wheels and still go 20/40.  At 27 years of age, this is the year I’m betting on.  2012 Projections:  80/20/85/.250/40

20. Adam Jones – He has a few strikes against him.  But games haven’t started yet?!  Strikes against him was a figure of speech, Random Italicized Voice.  Jones’s ground ball rate isn’t great, which makes me think we’ll need to be lucky to get over 25 homers and his walk rate is near abysmal.  A guy that can give 25/12/.285 is valuable though in today’s bear market, which only sounds like a grocery store in The Castro.  2012 Projections:  80/25/90/.285/12