Fantasy Baseball Advice

Chris Carpenter will undergo surgery on a compressed nerve in his shoulder. Word in The Bootheel is he’ll be fine for spring training. This will be something to watch in March and should be a decent-sized question mark during next year’s drafts. Will definitely be a high risk, high reward-type scenario. No Whammy, no Whammy, stop! Ooh… Further shoulder issues and the 60-day DL. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brandon Moss - With a divot forming on his knee, he needs surgery that will sideline him for 6-8 months. Can’t they just fill his knee in with some sod? Steven Pearce should see action in his stead. Yo, watch where you’re standing! That’s my stead!

Asdrubal Cabrera - Wasn’t supposed to start his suspension until Thursday, but he started it yesterday. Drop The Dribble while he serves his three game suspension.

Ryan Shealy - HR yesterday. The Royals as a team are hot, which is to say they are one game out of last place. Rooting for the Royals is like rooting for your widowed Granny to find a male suitor. It’s nice to see her happy, but you don’t want to see her too happy because that’s just weird.

Chad Billingsley - I love this sumbitch. As Scully may have said (I didn’t watch), Billingsley might not have had his best tonight, but the Padres haven’t had their best all season. The Dodgers are looking like they’re playoff bound. This might cost Billingsley a start on Sunday.

Cliff Pennington - Did nothing yesterday, but he has speed and the A’s have been playing him at 2nd. He’s worth a flier for steals.

Wandy Rodriguez - 5 IP, 0 ER and 7 Ks. The Magic Wandy was strait-jacketed and dunked in a tank of E-9 by Wigginton, causing him to loss because of two unearned runs.

Evan Longoria - HR yesterday. The Rays pulled the ol’ Little League switcheroo yesterday in the second game of the DH. They sat some regulars then let them all pinch hit in the 8th as the Rays rallied for 6 runs. Free soft serve for everyone!

Tim Lincecum - Gave up four earned runs in only 4 and a third innings, but no fear he still threw 102 pitches. I have to think this carves Webb’s name on the Cy Young that the Giants so desperately wanted Lincecum to win more than ever make it through another healthy season.

Kenji Johjima - This KazIwadome rewarded patient owners with a 3-for-4 night and 3 RBIs. And by ‘patient owners,’ I mean owners that haven’t checked their fantasy baseball team since March when they auto-drafted Johjima.

Javier Vazquez - 4 IP, 5 ER. Guillen pulled a Mickey and asked to see Vazquez’s conjones. Vazquez showed marbles.

Scott Baker - 7 IP, 1 ER. Watch your feet, Baker’s throwing down a gauntlet.

Ryan Franklin - Grabbed the save yesterday, while Motte closed out the 7th inning and Chris Perez nailed down the 2nd out of the 8th inning.

Augie Ojeda - Batted 2nd and played 3rd base in the Diamondbacks biggest game of the season. Yost and Melvin obviously had a gentlemen’s bet of $1 to see who could get fired the latest in the season.

Cliff Lee - 7 IP, 5 ER and 12 earned over the last 21 and 1/3 innings. Comatose Indians fan, “Cliff, save some for the playoffs!”

Edinson Volquez - 7 and 1/3 innings, 1 ER and 9 Ks, but was pulled after only 98 pitches. Maybe Dusty let Paper, Rock, Ulnar Collateral Ligament Reconstruction Surgery Scissors decide.

Yesterday, Luis Ayala was acquired by Mets. You know that thing about the girl you don’t know is better than the one you’re with? The grass is greener thing. Yeah, the Mets just got themselves a new girl. Why? Wagner’s old and he just had a setback (of course) so he’s not coming back as soon as thought. I’d peg mid-September as a fair timetable his for return. For now, it’s still anyone’s game for saves. Heilman, Kunz, Feliciano, Orosco, Mr. Met, Ralph Kiner, et al. They might all be better options than Ayala, but they’re not the new girl. The only reason why we’re concerned with this is because the Mets will win a lot of games. If someone can separate themselves from the pack, they could get a decent amount of saves while Wagner’s on the mend. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Hideki Matsui - Set to return on Tuesday. I’d prefer a hot hand, then a vet who’s just returning from injury. Especially a vet that has averaged a HR every 25 at-bats for his career. Not sure what the excitement is, but I guess it’s a Yankee thing. How’s Jeter treating you, Yankee fans?

Clayton Kershaw - 6 IP, 6 Ks, 1 ER. Should’ve had a win, but Braun took Chan Ho out of the Park.

Chris Dickerson - Hit a homer the other day. Went 3-for-5 yesterday. I think I’ve officially beat Dickerson into the ground.

Chris Davis - About to get third base eligibility if Hank Blalock can return and stay healthy at first. Yes, it’s an if the size of the Grand Canyon.

Andre Ethier - 2 HRs yesterday. He’s been starting over Juan Pierre on most days and has 4 HRs in his last four starts.  Torre sits him against lefties, which makes your job easy for when to start him.

Carlos Pena - HR yesterday. Four HRs last week. When I ranked him 46th in the top 100 for fantasy baseball’s 2nd half, here’s what I said, “For those looking for someone who can hit 20 HRs in the 2nd half. Here’s one.” And that’s me cutting and pasting me!

Javier Vazquez - 8 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks. June, 7.48 ERA; July, 5.65; August, you dropped him. Hey, Vazquez, how about you buy me dinner first?

Melvin Mora - 5-for-6 with 2 HRs. As I mentioned, in this week’s Buy/Sell, Mora’s feces has been smelling like Reese’s Pieces.

Edinson Volquez - 7 IP, 0 ER. This doesn’t mean he’ll go on another run like in the beginning of the year, he’s just trying to find his way to a 3.50 ERA. He’s currently at 2.73.

Rickie Weeks - Left with a thumb injury. Nomar, “I feel ya, man!” If Weeks is hitting the DL is the point, you play the Pass Line.

Alexis Rios - 5-for-6, there will be a point during this offseason when I’ll write a post making a case for Rios being a sleeper for next year. Just comment, “No.”

Roy Oswalt - Threw a one hitter over 8 IP. Looks like he put his hip injury behind him (or beside him).

Ty Wiggington - Accounted for all three of the Astros’s runs yesterday and this week he went 9/3/9/.560. There was a bit of a Wiggington Fan Club forming yesterday in the comments. I’m assuming future meetings of the WFC will be taking place in the octagon.

B.J. Upton - HR yesterday. May all your pitchers pitch at Petco and all your hitters hit at Arlington. Amen.

Jensen Lewis - Got the save yesterday as Perez entered the game in the seventh. Lewis is being viewed as the closer, whether he’s the best guy for the job is irrelevant. If you’re holding Perez for saves, you’re only going to get the very rare situational ones.

Adam Lind - HR, 3-for-6. Averaging a HR in just over five games since his recall and hitting .330.

Todd Jones - Went back to the DL, but it looks like Rodney is the closer now anyway. (Rodney is now sure to give up five runs just because I wrote he’s the closer.)

Brandon Moss - Left the game with an ankle injury. Now he may gather some moss.

Dan Wheeler - Got the save on Sunday when Balfour couldn’t get the job done. (Balfour did intentionally walk Hamilton with the bases loaded. This is the only time this has happened to anyone, except Barry Bonds in the last 60 years, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Actually, they didn’t say it, but they could’ve. Here’s some other things Elias Sports Bureau could’ve said this week around the office, “Tuesday was the first time Jim in Accounting didn’t call his wife three times before noon,” “Thursday marked the seventeenth time since March that Sally, Burt’s secretary, dropped a call” and “Fridays will no longer be Casual Fridays for Peter because he can’t tell the difference between pants and sweatpants.”

It has not been a good year for the Joneses. Jacques Jones is headed for retirement, Marion Jones went to jail and Ed “Too Tall” Jones banged his head on a doorway. And none of them will even acknowledge their brother from a white mother, Todd Jones, who was offcially replaced as closer on Sunday. I know what you’re saying, “But Todd Jones had just under a 3 K/9 ratio! Life’s unfair!” Yup, it sure is for everyone but Fernando Rodney, who Leyland announced would take over the Tiger’s closer job. (Leyland also announced he’s returning to filtered cigarettes now that Jones is gone.) Do I think it will last with Rodney? Sure, unless the Tigers trade for Fuentes or Street. Fuentes has closing experience, but Rodney can be just as dominant. Street has experience, and is just as injury prone as Rodney. So six of one, half dozen of another. Also, Zumaya is not without his issues as he had right triceps tightness and had to leave Sunday’s game. As for Todd Jones, drop him. He was useless when he had the job. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

John Grabow - Gave up 2 home runs yesterday. I still think he’s first in line for saves, but he could be traded too (or just not covert any saves or just not get any saves to convert). You might need to look at Tyler Yates and Denny Bautista, as well. Honestly, I grabbed Grabow and that’s as deep as I’m going for Pirates saves. These other schmohawks are not being picked up by me, except in the deepest of leagues where I really need saves.

Brian McCann - Out with a mild concussion from The Flying Hawaiian going all Tonga Kid on McCann and giving him a flying headbutt.

Shane Victorino - HR yesterday. Now has 8 HRs (Alexis Rios has 8 HRs, as well).

Billy Butler - Doesn’t he sound like a character from Clue? It was Billy Butler with the candlestick in the library. Anyway, since the All-Star break, Butler has 4 HRs, 14 RBIs and 2 moobs.

Jack Cust - HR yesterday. Will now hit three HRs this week, walk seven times and strikeout ten times. Hot week ahead!

Eric Chavez - He says he could be done as a third basemen. He could’ve said this in 2006.

Manny Ramirez - Says he’ll accept a trade out of Boston. They should trade him to the Nationals and then see how quickly he accepts. Honestly, I couldn’t believe the amount of people falling for Manny’s shizz back in March when everyone was saying Manny’s going to have a career year because of a contract. In December of 2007, I said Manny’s done trying. He’s been done. It’s fine. I just wish people would stop falling for the same nonsense.  Now I know it’s against a high-ranking baseball commandment to say anything against Gammons, but he was even reporting about Manny’s off-season conditioning. Listen, Manny’s off-season conditioning involves Xbox, Chuck E. Cheese and Mama’s Family DVDs.

Nomar Garciaparra - Left the game with knee irritation. After the game, Nomar said he might have injured his knee the previous night when he forgot the safety word with Mia.

Mike Jacobs/Derrek Lee - 22 HRs/60 RBIs and 17 HRs/63 RBIs, respectively. Granted, Lee (Buffalo) is not the negative on average like Jacobs, but Lee is only batting .296. Cust kayin’.

Scott Hairston - 17th HR yesterday. Later this week his bro, Jerry, returns. The brother battle between the Hairstons and the Uptons is almost as lopsided as The Von Erichs and The Bushwackers.

Ubaldo Jimenez - Besides having one of the best first names in baseball, he also put together a solid July. Last year, he had a solid July then got progressively worse as the year went on. Caveat emptor, for those in Latin America.

Johan Santana - 7th career complete game. CC Sabathia almost had 7 complete games in July.

Hank Blalock - 2-for-3 and he’s going back to Texas. If he can stay healthy (Yes, that’s a big if. BTW, how come people don’t say it’s a small if something is very probable? Like, “I guess we’ll get donuts if Dunkin’ Donuts, a store that never closes, is open. Yes, that’s a small if.”), Blalock could be in for a big week.

Jeff Samardzija - Got the save yesterday after Marmol threw 1 2/3 innings on Saturday. I suppose he could get more saves if Wood continues to have blister problems, but I think Marmol will out-save him 4 to 1 and if Wood’s out-saving Marmol… Well, you get my drift.

Clayton Kershaw - Got his first major league win. The only thing is, I would start just about anyone at Dodgers Stadium against the Nats.

Marcus Thames - Got one hit yesterday. Guess what it was? Okay, so you platoon Thames and Joyce just like Leyland is doing. They’ll probably hit 45 HRs combined. What, you don’t want 45 HRs?

Javier Vazquez - Was roughed up again on Sunday. It’s of little consolation to his owners (which I’m not, suckas!), but Vazquez’s K rate is fine and his BABIP is at .335, which means he’s been unlucky — sorta like his owners, which I’m not, suckas!

Kyle Lohse - Drop the H.

Brad Ziegler - Set major league rookie record with 27 scoreless innings to start a career. Interesting factoid, he hasn’t given up a home run since he switched to pitching sidearm, 128 1/3 innings ago. Uninteresting factoid, his Mom’s name is Beth.

Brian Bannister sports a .86 ERA, a miniscule WHIP and three wins AND beat Francisco Liriano. Can this continue? His strikeout rate is pretty poor, but in one of the ten team mixed leagues I’m in, I picked up Bannister today. It’s a league of owners that are better friends than they are fantasy players. I don’t assume Bannister is still out there in many leagues, but for a few of those leagues where players aren’t quick to the waiver wire or with team owners who don’t pick up Royals because of what they have meant in the past, Bannister might be out there, I’d pick him up even in those shallow leagues. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Nick Markakis - I’ve been walking around my house screaming, “I am Markakis! No, I am Markakis!” for the last two weeks trying to spur him on to greatness. (My girlfriend has been thrilled.) Finally, he went yard. I hope this is the sparkakis he needs to go on a hot streak. He’s a notorious slow starter so if he can start hot this year, we could be in for a nice ride.

Francisco Liriano - Ah, the aforementioned Liriano. As I said on Friday, you should’ve traded him on Saturday.

Alex Gordon - I hope he reaches the 20/20 season I predicted because I have him in just about every league except for my NL-only ones (and don’t think I didn’t try and sneak him through).

Cliff Lee - I think he’s on Rudy’s list of players who should be Asian given their name. Anyway, pitched a great game against the woeful A’s. He has the Twins, Royals and Mariners up next. Two out of three on the woeful scale isn’t bad.

Jon Rauch - He’s great for K, Whip and ERA help so I wouldn’t drop him just because Cordero is back. (Because, frankly, I don’t know how long Cordero is going to be back.)

Joe Crede - Do I think Crede finishes the season with 184 homers and 377 RBIs? Maybe not, but he could hit three more homers this week then reverts to the Crede we know and hate. I’d pick him up until he reverts if you have room. You gotta ride hot streaks.

Wandy Rodriguez - I played the Wandy start at home/sit on the road game last year. It worked out well for me.

Burke Badenhop - I watched him play before I put in my claim. Saying he’s a poor man’s Derek Lowe, is an insult to poor men everywhere.

Shane Victorino - While I didn’t get him in any leagues this year, because he ended up going much higher than I would’ve paid for him, I still love The Flying Hawaiian™ and I hope he gets well soon. Meantime, put him on your DL. I hope Victorino doesn’t prove to be injury-prone his entire career because he’s beginning to seem that way.

Javier Vazquez - Man, the ‘08 Tigers and ‘27 Yankees comparisons ended real quick.

Franklin Gutierrez - No idea if he’ll ever get a chance to play again regularly after starting so slow, but if he does, I might go back for more pain. He’s talented and is only 25. As of right now, I’m done with anyone who regularly gets benched for Jason Michaels.

Johnny Cueto - Well, we all knew there would be some speed bumps, but Jason Bay? C’mon, your farkin’ initials are JC. Honestly, he walked one guy and had some balls up in the strike zone. I’ll take my chances if every pitcher on my staff gives up one walk against six strikeouts in six innings.

You’re so lucky there’s an extra day in February or this post would have had to wait until March. We’ve already ran through the rest of the top outfielders for 2008. Today we look at the rest of the top pitchers. These are the pitchers that I usually draft. I love Peavy and Santana this year, but I won’t have them, unless they fall to me. By fall, I mean late second round. They’ll be lots of value from them, but pitching is too unpredictable and way too easy to patch together decent enough stats. If you draft Santana with your first round pick, who will be your second pick Carlos Lee? Mark Teixeira? Eh, these names don’t excite me enough in the 2nd round to forgo a hitter in the first. I’d prefer to take a Verlander/Haren-type a little later on.  Solid number one starter, but not a first rounder. Anyway, if you want to look at the 2008 Player Rater that was put together by our very own, Rudy Gamble; click here. If you’d like to look at the top twenty projections for every other position; click here. Now, without further ado, your top starting pitching for 2008, rankings 21-40.

21. Javier Vazquez – Vazquez had the best ’07 season you didn’t know about. (If you did know, then jump ahead, I wouldn’t want to bore you.) 3.74/1.14 with over 200 Ks in ‘07. He finally returned to his former Montreal glory. And, yes, that is the only time Montreal and glory have ever been used in a sentence. Projections: 17-7/3.50/1.15/200

22. Scott Kazmir – Purposely left Kazmir off my top twenty, cause I don’t want any starter sporting a high WHIP. Now there’s word that he has arm problems. That article is a press release filled with optimism. Aside, aren’t all injury articles press releases? Aren’t you sick of this? Reporter, “How does the arm feel?” Athlete, “It’s a little sore, but I’m going to be fine. The doctor said that I should be back on the field in seven to ten days.” Is there anyone left that speaks the truth? Stop with the press-release tone! But I digress. Maybe Kazmir’s injury is nothing, but here’s something, why would you risk it? Pitchers with arm problems in spring training are a caution flag. Do yourself a favor, don’t draft a pitcher with a spring training arm injury. Projections: 14-8/3.75/1.30/210

23. Daisuke Matsuzaka – His division is ridunkiculous with offense. The last pitcher I drafted from the AL East in any league, I believe, was Roy Halladay in ’06 and that turned out vaguely crappy. If you can get excited about Dice-K, I’m assuming you’re a Son of Sam Horn messageboard poster. His best quality (which, all snark aside, is actually a really good quality) is his durability. Projections: 17-7/4.00/1.25/200

24. A.J. Burnett – I know; I keep preaching safety first. Avoid injury problems. Yes. And that’s true. But this whole next tier of pitchers has question marks. A.J. is the most predictable when he’s healthy and even his injuries are predictable. There’s safety in that. Projections: 14-8/3.85/1.20/170

25. Brett Myers – I’m not too concerned about the inexplicable bullpen move last year. Can’t be great for his arm to go from 200 innings to 100 back to 200, but Myers seems like too much of a total doucebag to let it bother him too much. Maybe he slows down in August, but by then you’re trucking towards first place and there’s some spectacular call-up that can replace him for a start or two or three. Myers has my full endorsement. Projections: 16-7/3.75/1.28/175

26. Pedro Martinez – It’s with great regret that Pedro places no higher than 26th. He was absolutely incredible when I was in my twenties and now, well, we’re both getting old. I miss the old Pedro like I miss the old me, or the newer me. Alas… Projections:12-5/3.30/1.15/160 in 140 innings/24 starts.

25. Francisco Liriano – Heffin’ hey, he’s back! At least according to the stock press release-type articles being written. I’m not drafting Liriano in any league. It’s too fast, too soon. If you’re feeling lucky go to Vegas, if you want to play fantasy baseball, skip Liriano. Projections: 10-3/3.15/1.05/150 in 120 innings/20 starts.

26. Yovani Gallardo – I’ve detailed how you should avoid 2nd year players if at all possible (hitters or pitchers). YoGa has a good offensive team behind him or I would have clumped him down with Lincecum. (Instead, Lincecum will be clumped with Sheets. Which we’ll get to, sorry, I was being premature.)  Projections: 14-8/3.50/1.20/180

27. Ian Snell – I enjoyed a good season from Ian Snell last year, but, no matter how it played out, he always got a little roughed up. Whether it was Paulino dropping a pop-up or if he gave up a home run, Snell got rattled. He’s another year older and I think he can get better in ’08. I’d draft him with confidence. Projections: 12-9/3.60/1.20/200

28. Chien-ming Wang – Wang’s even a little too safe/unexciting for me. It’s hard to find fault with drafting him. He proved last year he doesn’t need to strikeout hitters to be effective. I do kinda worry when someone can’t strikeout someone out, but wins are wins and his ratios aren’t bad. Projections: 18-8/3.75/1.25/100

29. Tim Hudson – Boring, right? Yeah, he is a boring pick. Boring wins titles! Besides, I wouldn’t draft the next three pitchers on any team. Projections: 15-8/3.70/1.25/135

30. Matt Cain – Yes, he’s the opposite of boring, but his team’s offensive standout is Aaron Rowand.  His stuff is filthy; I’ll give you that. His division’s All-Stars probably would lose at least one game to the Taiwanese Little League team. His ballpark is ideal for a pitcher. Yet, he has too many games where he gives up six runs in five innings. He’s young still and he walks too many people. Maybe next year… Projections: 11-9/3.90/1.30/190

31. Tim Lincecum – Tim over at Roto Authority has a man crush on Lincecum like I have on Michael J. Fox. I think you’re asking for trouble if you draft Lincecum. As is my policy, second year players provide too much risk.  Taking a second year player on the worst offensive team is additional risk. Will he try to do too much? Will hitters catch up to him? Let it play out on someone else’s team. Projections: 10-7/ 3.75/1.25/170

32. Ben Sheets – Ugh, I wanted to just leave him off the list to prove a point, but he’s got great stuff. Unfortunately, you can’t draft him. He’ll make you miserable. If anything, let someone else draft him, then, after the second injury, trade Nick Punto for him and hope for a good September. Projections: 60-Day DL

33./34. Derek Lowe/Brad Penny  – See Hudson, Tim. (I could see one of you schmohawks commenting below that Lowe/Penny doesn’t get enough Ks to win titles or something like that. Penny/Lowe’s your third starter. Try and draft safety with your third starter and you’ll be in the hunt for a title in September. Draft Lincecum with your third starter and you’ll be in fifth place wondering where you went wrong.) (Penny note: I’m aware of his splits, but simply trade or apply caution in the second half.) Projections for both: 15-7/3.90/1.30/140

35. Ted Lilly – I almost tossed Lilly into my Penny/Lowe daily double, but he doesn’t have the advantageous pitcher’s park. Not to mention, there’s no weather in LA, when Wrigley’s blowing out, you want no part of any pitcher. That’s a headache I try to avoid. Projections: 16-8/4.20/1.20/160

36. Chad Billingsley – While your leaguemates are drafting Lincecum and Cain, I give you my approval to draft Chad late. He’s young and he’s a bit wild. Two things I usually avoid, but his team will be a lot better than the ‘Aints. That’s a confidence builder. With Grady Little, one of the worst managers of all-time (him and Jim Tracy were vying for top spot) gone, there’s reason to think Torre’s inheriting a future Cy Young. I’m thinking it, at least. 16-7/3.20/1.30/190 in a 180 innings/27 starts

37. Kelvim Escobar – I see Kelvim turning up on a lot of draft rankings for 2008. Yeah, see, the thing is, he’s missing all of April. That’ll turn into the All-Star Break, then he’ll return in August for the stretch run. Pretend like you have an idea of the haps and don’t draft him. Projections: Nothing yet, but maybe I’ll remind you in August to pick him up. If you’re good…

38. Adam Wainwright – Perfect example of why you avoid 2nd year players. His 1st half  was horrendous. Unusable. His 2nd half was great. I know he’s not as exciting as Cain or Lincecum but here’s someone who can actually help your team. Projections: 12-7/3.20/1.30/160

39/40. Phillip Hughes/Homer Bailey – Just give them a year. That’s all I’m asking. They might be good, but you don’t want any part of the other side of the coin and you have to draft them too early. Wait, ‘til next year and everyone’s excitement for these two is gone, then pounce. I repeat:  They might be good. The problem is they might be bad. If you want risk, have casual sex with a prostitute. Projections: 12-7/4.00/1.30/140

Your Bonus, you’re welcome:

41. Dontrelle Willis – Usually when pitchers go from the NL to the AL, their value takes a hit (literally!), but Dontrelle’s got some things going for him. His delivery is convoluted, he’ll have lots more run support and he won’t have to worry about hitting anymore. That last one seems like a bad joke, but he really did take his hitting seriously, a little too seriously, to the point I’d wonder if he cared more about that than pitching. I could see Willis getting back some value he’s lost over the last two seasons. Just don’t expect pre-06 numbers. Projections: 16-9/4.15/1.35/180