Fantasy Baseball Advice

What’s the ultimate slumpbuster? Some players and the Urban Dictionary would argue a fat chick. The Braves know the true answer. A weekend in Mississippi. Jeff Franceour went 7-for-13 with 2 RBIs in three minor league games before the Braves decided his mind was messed with enough and they returned him to the majors. Maybe tomorrow they’ll call Francoeur into the front office to tell him his Mom died only to then say, “Psyche!” Francouer hasn’t changed overnight. He’s a hacker who can hit, but with less power than you’d think. Assuming he gets back to form, he should hit a pro-rated 90-100 RBIs before end of the year. But there hasn’t been much in his peripherals that promise that. Worth holding onto or gambling on, but he’s definitely marked down vs. his preseason value. Anyway, here’s what we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ryan Church - May not return this year because of persistent migraines. Perhaps his head would toughen up if Moises Alou peed on it.

Torii Hunter - His 2 HR day puts him on pace for his yawnstipating 20/20 season (22/17 to be exact). But he’s only on pace for 77 RBIs - this has more to do with the anemic Angels offense than double-i, but it’s still pretty pathetic for the AL. Didn’t Sizemore get this many last year from the leadoff spot?

Chris Davis - HR yesterday. Until further notice, I’m only starting him when he’s at home, unless it’s a short schedule day.

Manny Parra - Pitched an inning of relief in the Rockies game yesterday. I mentioned in the forums that I think it was just his throw day. Later, Suppan was put on the DL to make room in the rotation. We’re all good, gang.

Damaso Marte - Notched a save, his second. I see no reason why he can’t get to 15 saves.

Ubaldo Jimenez - Ubaldo was solid last year, if you remove a mediocre September. He looked good in his last start and he was good last night (7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 7 Ks). He might go on a two month stretch where he can be very usuable. He gets the Mets this Saturday.

Jack Wilson - The Dodgers “have zeroed in on Jack Wilson to replace Rafael Furcal.” Zeroed has never been more apt a description for a trade target.

Josh Johnson - Scheduled to start against the Dodgers on Thursday. Josh Johnson hasn’t pitched in so long that we’re not sure if he played Casey in Dawson’s Creek. Would Katie Holmes start him? I don’t think so.

David Ortiz - He took batting practice today. Supposedly he’ll be ready just after the All-Star break. I’d say August.

Adam LaRoche - It’s the 2nd half so it’s time for LaRoche to hit. 11 for 21 w/ 2 HR and 9 RBI in the last 7 games. Why don’t the Pirates insist he play winter ball?

Nomar Garciaparra - HR yesterday. Nomar gave Mia the game ball, but that didn’t stop her from making a scene in the parking lot when Nomar told her that he drank half a beer after the game. Not on a school night!

Adrian Beltre - As the Mariners languish in last, Beltre gets predictably hot.

Hiroki Kuroda - Ah-so this is why the Dodgers got him! Actually, he’s been solid all season aside from a few hiccups. Yesterday he pitched a one-hit, shutout.

Vladimir Guerrero - HR against the Rangers. That brings his career numbers against the Rangers to 22 HRs/.408 in 77 games. In related news, the Rangers pitching used to suck/still sucks/will suck.

Jason Varitek - Your backup AL all-star catcher! Between him and Jeter, the AL is packed with baseball IQ, a never say die attitude and you-just-can’t-put-your-finger-on-it-ness.

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Boston Red Sox preview.)

If you had asked me a month ago, did I think the Boston Red Sox could win a World Series again in 2008, I probably would have said yes. And why not? The Sox kept the core of the 2007 World Championship Team (unlike 2004, when Pedro, Johnny Damon and Derek Lowe were allowed to leave…) and did not keep themselves so crazy busy running around in the off-season that they are exhausted (OK, Queer Eye for the Straight Guy WAS semi-amusing…) and, with the exception of some of the starting rotation being a little older (Tim Wakefield and Curt Schilling are both 41 years old) it is basically the same team (Doug Mirabelli notwithstanding…)And then all hell breaks loose–and Curt Schilling is out at least until the All-Star Break, if not forever, Josh Beckett throws a warm up pitch last weekend and comes up lame, Coco Crisp hasn’t played in nearly two weeks because of a groin injury, and Julio Lugo just started playing after missing more than a week with back problems of his own…

And yes, most of these are normal occurrences that happen during the spring, and if the Sox had another 2 weeks of Spring Training, like everyone else (except for Oakland) it probably would not have the same urgency. But since the Sox are looking at a 17-hour plane ride this Wednesday, plus playing their 1st two games of the 2008 campaign a little more than a week from now, its a huge deal, especially the Josh Beckett injury. Fortunately, he has started a rehab program to get him back into the rotation as soon as possible. Also, with the beginning of the season structured as it is, the Sox can go with a starting rotation of 4 for some time…hopefully enough time to get Josh back 100%.

That being said, here are my thoughts with regard to the 2008 version of the Boston Red Sox:

Needs to Improve: JD Drew, Julio Lugo, Coco Crisp, and Manny Ramirez: JD Drew (not including the Grand Slam in the post season) and Julio Lugo were abysmal last year. Yes, Drew managed to stay healthy (relatively speaking) and he is a very good right fielder (sorry, Trot), but Julio Lugo is even worse than advertised (19 errors, .968 fielding % and a 237 BA with 8 homers). Supposedly he had some sort of flu-thing going in the off-season in 2006 that caused his downturn in ‘07–we’ll see. Coco has never really lived up to the hitting hype he had with Cleveland, although he did make some spectacular plays in CF. Manny, coming off one of the worst seasons of his career (.296 with 20 homers), is supposedly all focused and coming off the best off-season training ever.

Can they repeat: Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell, Hideki Okajima, and Josh Beckett: Everyone knows the story about Dustin Pedroia–Horribly awful in April (batting .179, and everyone is screaming for his head) he then goes on the a hot streak for the rest of the year, (.317 with 8 homers) including the post season (where he played with a broken hamate bone in his hand) and wins Rookie of the Year. Kevin Youkilis, his 1st year all year at 1st base, breaks the record for error-less games at 1st, and wins his 1st Golden Glove, also has his best year at the plate (.288 with 16 homers), Mike Lowell, (can you believe he was the “take him or you can’t have Josh Beckett” guy?) ANOTHER career season with 120 RBI’s and a .324 BA.

Then we have Josh Beckett (20-7, 3.27 ERA), the only 20 game winner in all of MLB last year (and the only 20 win season of his career), should have started the All-Star Game, and you always felt surprised when he was on the mound and the Sox lost–he was as much of a lock as anyone could be in baseball…except for Okajima. Everyone thought the Sox signed this guy to keep Daisuke Matsuzaka company! He ends up surpassing Daisuke, going 3-2 with 2.22 ERA–and completely baffling hitters with his odd delivery…

Can they maintain: Jacoby Ellsbury, Big Papi, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield, Mike Timlin, and Jonathan Papelbon: Jacoby Ellsbury only played 33 regular season games with the Red Sox in 2007–and managed a .353 BA, 3 homers, and to steal 9 bases–he then gets into 7 games in the post season when Coco Crisp became a black sucking hole in the batting order, and proceeds to hit .360 on the big stage. He can’t possibly sustain THOSE kinds of numbers over 162+ games in a full season–can he?

Only Big Papi can hit .332 with 35 homers and be considered to have a “off year”. Dealing with the pain of a bad knee pretty much all season, David Ortiz hopes to put up more Papi-like monster numbers this year, as he is 100% recovered from him off-season knee surgery… Jon Lester, a year removed from his cancer ordeal, and winner of Game 4 of the 2007 World Series, Jon has said he has more strength and focus this year, and wants everyone to forget he is “the guy who had cancer”. He has a 4-0 season last year; with some flashes of brilliance. If he can reduce the “nibbling” around the plate, punish the strike zone, and stop getting himself into the high pitch counts, he will be better than just a #5 starter…

Everyone forgets that Tim Wakefield was kicking some serious butt last year before being felled with shoulder issues that kept him off the post season roster. Tying his highest win total (17) Wake chews up innings–and last year was no exception. He started 31 games and threw 189+ innings in 2007. Now that his shoulder issues are behind him, I expect Wake will give the Sox exactly what he always does–and anchor in the rotation–and 12-15 wins–and about 200 innings…Mike Timlin just turned 42, is going into his 6th year with the Sox, says this is his last year, and has made more than 1000 appearances. This guy has NOTHING left to prove. And while he always seems to let that inherited runner score, there has been many times when he has been on that mound, and you just KNEW no batter was going anywhere–except back to the dugout…

Speaking of keeping people in the dugout, is it possible Jonathan Papelbon can get BETTER? Everyone was so sure he would be in the starting rotation at the beginning of last year, until he wasn’t. And being careful with him actually worked, and he excelled in 2007, when he had 37 saves and a minuscule 1.85 ERA…and this year he has added a 3 pitch, a slider to his repertoire…

The Wild Cards: Curt Schilling, Manny Delcarmen, Clay Buchholz: Will Curt pitch ever again? He is on the infamous “rest and rehab plan” and only time will tell if it was the way to go. Manny Delcarmen has flashes of brilliance, and some say, some of the best pure stuff in the bullpen. If he can he harness that, he will be a force to be reckoned with. Clay Buchholz was shut down at the end of 2007 with shoulder fatigue–but in the off-season he added 10 lbs. of muscle and trained to be able to handle a full season of pitching. Can he be the phenom everyone hopes he can be?

Players in a class of their own: Jason Varitek: ‘Tek will never be a force at the plate (.255 with 17 homers in 2007. But behind the plate is entirely different story. His preparation and attention to detail has earned him the respect of pitchers, catchers and players all over major league baseball. No one is better than handling a staff mixed with veterans and rookies alike–NO ONE…without him, Sox don’t win–nuff said.

Everyone else: The mix of bench players (Alex Cora, Sean Casey, Kevin Cash, et al) and the bullpen guys (Kyle Snyder, Julian Tavarez, Javier Lopez, et al), will play a huge part in how rested, loose and focused the rest of team is. The backup guys need to get it done as well, whether its giving rest to a player in need of a day, or stepping up when someone goes down with an injury.

Making predictions with regard to how teams end up when its all over is usually not my thing–162 games is a LONG time. Anything and everything can happen–and usually does. Despite that, I do think the Sox will be in the mix again come the post-season. But there are a lot of very good teams out there (Cleveland, Tigers, etc) so by no means do I feel its a forgone conclusion the Sox will get the World Series.

But I am hoping…

Christine
Boston Red Thoughts
Red Sox Commentary from a Red-Headed Boston Fan in Yankeeland

With the top ten overall for fantasy baseball here and the top twenty here, we move onto where to draft each positional player. First up is everyone’s favorite position to skip, the catcher. This year is no different than past years — pretty weak. The best that can be said for these twenty is that they are the cream of the crap. Now, I’m all for drafting a catcher late, but somehow I’ve ended up with Brian McCann and Victor Martinez on one of my most important teams the last two years. So, as much as I preach drafting a catcher late, I don’t always practice it. Hey, you have to draft value, no matter the player. If you’d like to take a look at our 2007 Player Rater, it can be found here. Now, your 2008 catchers:

1. Victor Martinez – One and two were real close and I briefly had Russell Martin at number one, but I can’t trust a catcher to run as much as he did last year. Not to mention, Russell slowed down a lot in the 2nd half. Anyway, this is about Martinez and he’s about as solid as you can get in a packed lineup. Projections: 75/25/115/.300

2. Russell Martin – As mentioned above, he slowed down a lot in the 2nd half last year, which means he may try and pace himself more this year and slow down a bit in the 1st half. Not a good thing for someone who’s ranking relies a lot on his steals. Nevertheless, the catching position isn’t great so here’s Russell. Projections: 85/20/90/.290/15

3. Brian McCann – I like him more than Mauer; all right, shoot me. Last year, he struggled with an injury to his hand that he sustained while catching, causing his numbers to look a bit down. He’s still very young (24 in 2008) with time to grow into more power. With Andruw gone and a full year of Tex, McCann’s numbers should get a bit of a plus. Projections: 75/25/105/.285

4. Joe Mauer – Mauer yawnstipates me. Everyone know what yawnstipates means? It’s when you have to yawn, but can’t. Basically, you’re constipated with your yawning. You want to yawn at his numbers, but he manages to do just enough so you can’t yawn. Mauer turned down hernia surgery in the offseason that seemed to be required and opted for rest. He’s yet to prove he can give anything other than average and runs. Average and runs are a great yawnstipator. Projections: 85/15/70/.310/10

5. Jorge Posada – With his lineup, Posada can ground out to 2nd and force in 30 RBIs. There’s little upside here, and the average last year was a blip on the radar, but steady as he goes. Projections: 70/20/90/.270

6. Jason Varitek – He’s basically Posada with facial hair. Projections: 70/20/85/.265

7. Jarrod Saltalamacchia – I tried, but I had to cut and paste that last name. The boy is young and in a hitter’s paradise. This might be a bit of a reach, but it’s the catching position, take a few gambles. Better to look for upside at catcher, than at 1st base. His numbers could exceed Posada’s but he comes with some risk, obviously. Projections: 75/22/85/.285

8. Kenji Johjima – Now you see why Salty was at number six. Folks, your 2008 catchers! Kenji makes me full on yawn. Projections: 60/17/70/.295

9. Ramon Hernandez – Last year he caused you to rah-MOAN. Oofa! But he’s not completely over the hill just yet. Could be a late-round steal on draft day in mixed leagues. Projections: 60/20/85/.275

10. Bengie Molina – The most successful of The Catching Molina Bros. and the only one that should be on a fantasy team. Sorry, Yadir. Projections: 45/20/80/.270

11. Ronnie Paulino – Now things get interesting with some upside. Sure, there’s a chance he’ll bungle a pop-up and get sent to the minors, but, if things work out right, he could give decent numbers. Projections: 60/17/70/.275

12. Carlos Ruiz – More beautiful, beautiful upside. I posted a blog here all about Carlos Ruiz. Suffice it to say, I got high hopes for this sumbitch! Projections: 60/17/70/.275/10

13. Ivan Rodriguez – Here, there’s no upside. Not an ounce of it. Unless he starts juicing again. Weird how his nickname Pudge went from stating the obvious to being sarcastic in four years. Projections: 55/10/65/.285/5

14. Yorvit Torrealba – More upside or as they say in da hood, “Snoops upside your head.” I was worried when it looked like Yorvit might go to the Mets. In Coors, he just might surprise you. Or, at the least, you can do a lot worse in an NL-only league. Projections: 55/12/55/.265/3

15. Johnny Estrada – It could be worse; it could be Paul LoDuca. In the Mets lineup, he should get you some RBIs and runs, but don’t ask for more. Projections: 60/9/70/.285

16. A.J. Pierzynski – Maybe he’ll get into a fight with the Cubs’ Soto. Projections: shit/shit/shit/and more shit. Seriously, if you’re drafting this bozo, you’re in an AL-only league and you know what you’re getting. 60/15/50/.260

17. Paul LoDuca – He says he wants to prove the Mets wrong. I say, how? By hitting 7 homers and twelve doubles. Please. Projections: 50/7/55/.275/3

18. Mike Napoli – There’s some upside here, if Rex Hudler (The Hud!) is right. Cause The Hud sees a thing of beauty. Then again, The Hud would probably draft Garrett Anderson in the second round. Um, well… At least it looks like Napoli’s starting for the Halos. Projections: 45/13/50/.260/7

19. John Buck – John Buck is a rich man’s David Ross. Projections: 40/17/45/.250

20. Michael Barrett – I like Barrett here a lot and considered moving him up. Unfortunately, Barrett’s not even the number one catcher on his team right now. Luckily, Bard is no sure thing. I explained what happened to Barrett once before, but here goes again. In Chicago, he got depantsed by the school bully right in front of the girl he had a crush on. Disgraced, he left town, but it lingered with him for the remainder of the year. Now, he gets some new threads, a new haircut and, at the start of a school year, he can be a new guy. I say Barrett can give as much value as rah-MOAN, if he can put his past behind him and get a starting job. Keep a close eye on how Bard and him shake out, because Barrett can still produce. Projections: 55/17/60/.285, if he plays. Put him in, Black!

1. Jorge Posada
.338/91/20/90/2
At 36, easily his best year since 2003. If you saw this year coming, kudos to you. Maybe you should start your own blog called, “I Lied About Knowing How Well Posada Was Going To Do This Year.” Sixty points above his career average spells one thing: F-L-U-K-E. But if you had Posada, you got tremendous value from someone you thought you might have to replace at some point. This would’ve been my thinking right after the draft, “Maybe I’ll drop Posada and take a chance on Iannetta.” Then after Posada started well, “I guess I can give Posada a month.” Then when he continued to produce, “Well, I’ll hold onto him for a little bit longer. Worse case scenario is I’ll pick up Torrealba.” Chances are you never picked up Torrealba. BTW, as you’ll see, the top catcher this year has the distinction of being nothing more than the cream of the crap.

2. Victor Martinez
.301/78/25/114/0
(See Top Ten 1st Basemen, or don’t. I’ll be fine.)

3. Russell Martin
.293/87/19/87/21
A true throwback to the bygone days of Benito Santiago and vintage Kendall. (I guarantee no one will ever Google “vintage Kendall” so I did. Results are for an old bottle of crappy wine.) Martin faded a bit as the season wore on with only 5 steals post All-Star break. No matter, you got very good value from Martin for where you had to draft him. But if you’re drafting a catcher needing 20+ steals, you’re drafting incorrectly. More than likely Martin’s steals were icing.

4. Brian McCann
.270/51/18/92/0
Guys and doll faces, this is your number #4 catcher (#2 in NL-only). What a crappy position. Isn’t it clear why everyone says ad infinitum not to draft a catcher too high? Position scarcity-schmarcity. You’re better off waiting to the late rounds. As for McCann, he had a couple of play-through-it injuries this year, which drained him of his power during the middle of the year. But catchers are always dinged up, so it’s hardly an excuse.

5. Bengie Molina
.276/38/19/81/0
The number #5 catcher in all of baseball didn’t break 40 runs. This is pathetic. I’ve got an idea. How about steroids are allowed for anyone who is going to play 120 games or more at catcher? It’s such a tough position, they obviously need a little help. It could also add a bit of strategy with the management of a club deciding who they want to put on steroids, “Let’s roll the dice and let Jason Bay catch this year.” Also, it could extend more careers than the DH. I can see it now, “Batting fourth and catching, Barry Bonds.”

6. Joe Mauer
.293/62/7/60/7
Wow, what a year! Aren’t you glad you drafted him with your third round pick? Write this down above your computer, “Don’t draft a catcher before the 12th round.”(Add an exclamation point if you need to shout at yourself to listen.) The scary thing is, you know Mauer has no power. These numbers are more or less what you should be expecting. Maybe 20 points higher in average, but big whoop.

7. Kenji Johjima
.287/52/14/61/0
Do you think Kenji gets more press back home because he plays with Ichiro Suzuki? Or do you think he only gets press of an afterthought nature? Such as this being the coverage in The Japanese Rising Moon paper, “The great Ichiro Suzuki ground out to evil Howie Kendrick in two trips to bat, then he sacrifice himself for team and take fastball off elbow pad. In related news, Kenji Johjima hit home run.”

8. Jason Varitek
.255/57/17/68/1
In the Year of Crappy Catchers, I’m kinda surprised Varitek didn’t finish a bit higher on this list. His average was the killer here. His post All-Star break average was .225. Yeah, that sucks.

9. Ivan Rodriquez
.281/50/11/63/2
Has there ever been anyone skinnier whose nickname implies a fatty? Obviously people started calling him Pudge before steroids testing, but now whenever someone calls him Pudge tell me you don’t find it a little baffling. Sit someone in front of the TV who has never seen Rodriguez and tell them he’s called Pudge. Immediately they wonder if it’s meant sarcastically. Now, I think it might be. Anyway, his numbers are neither here nor there. He ain’t winning leagues for you, that is fo’ sho.

10. Ronny Paulino
.263/56/11/55/2
The only top ten list Paulino should be on is, “Top Ten Players the Average Fan Does Not Know.” Actually, I could have probably put a dozen other names next to Paulino’s stats and no one would’ve known the difference. And if you’re telling me you would have known had I, say, put Pierzynski’s name there, you should go join the “I Knew How Well Posada Was Going To Do” liar’s blog.

As for the rest of the catchers, more crap.