Fantasy Baseball Advice

Jason Bay has been terrible.  Like Don Mattingly’s wife in a mugshot terrible.  In June, J-Bay hit .230 and 4 homers, but he was hitting the cover off the ball in June compared to July.  In July, he’s hitting .203 with 1 homer.  This month Garrett Jones has hit more homers during REM sleep.  The optimist in me says Bay will hit 15 homers and .300 the rest of the way with ten steals.  The pessimist in me thinks he’ll be benched in favor of Chris Duncan.  The realist looks at all of his splits and sees a guy that has been consistent throughout his career, minus a season (2007) when he was battling knee problems.  The surrealist in me thinks Bay will hit a line drive up the middle that will ricochet off the pitcher and shoot to the 1st baseman who will smack the ball into center, then the ball will slowly roll back towards the infield until God tilts the field and the ball rolls towards the 3rd baseman, but God tilts too far and the field freezes causing the ball to roll back towards the catcher.  In all likelihood, Bay’s 2nd half should be somewhere in the realist realm (though it would be cool if the surrealist was spot-on).  I think Bay can give you 10+ homers, .280 average and a handful of steals.  Right now, I’m actively trying to acquire him in one league.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Erik Bedard – Back to the DL.  In related news, George Sherrill was an All-Star in 2008, Adam Jones in 2009 and Chris Tillman is about to be called up.

Ted Lilly – After he was rocked by the Phils, I said he might end up on the DL.  Lo and behold, voilà, alas, see that, told ya so, etc.  Lilly’s now on the DL.  Will miss about a month.

Kevin Millwood – Left after two innings because of tightness in his glutes.  That never bothered Richard Simmons.

Chad Gaudin/John Lannan – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners and 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, respectively, with two no decisions.  Watching the Nats and Padres really tested my love for baseball.  I don’t want to test fate for the off chance Tom Paciorek is rehired, but listening to Bob Carpenter and Dibble is like sitting next to Ted Striker on an airplane.

Ryan Zimmerman – Since May when he hit .342, he’s hitting .238 with 5 homers and nary a steal.  This guy has 9 homers and is batting .260.  This guy is Kevin Kouzmanoff.

Everth Cabrera – It was about five games ago, I said I’m selling back all of my old EverCab CDs at Amoeba, now he has 4 straight games with a steal.  SAGNOF!

Kyle Blanks – HR yesterday.  Rudy’s pride and joy now has three homers in the last week (while batting about .240).

Daric Barton – 2-for-4, after he finally did something he left the game with a hamstring strain.  If he were a bigger name, he could have had the lead with the title, Barton Fink.

Dallas Braden – 5 2/3 IP, 7 ER and 16 baserunners.  I sat him in The Jetstream.  I’m going to give him his next start vs. the Blue Jays at home.  If that doesn’t work out, then bye-bye Braden.

Brett Gardner – Headed to the DL with a broken left thumb.  So much for the Fonzie impersonations.

Brett Cecil – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  Sticking with the newly-established Brett theme, Cecil now has three solid starts in a row and gets Oakland next.

Joe Blanton – 8 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  Now has a 2.55 ERA through the last two months.  I’ve been starting him everywhere for the last three weeks in a 12 team league.  I’d own him in a 10 team league at this point.

Julio Lugo – Batting .571 since the trade to the Cards and has a homer and a steal.  Lugo wouldn’t be the first middle infielder lemon that LaRussa turned into lemonade.

John Smoltz – 5 IP, 6 ER.  I know he had a lot of great years.  But your nostalgia is hurting you like when you sneak off into your attic and look at photos of you with your one true love.  Burn the photos, man.  She’s married with kids.

Nolan Reimold – .417 and three steals since The Break.  No idea where this newfound speed is coming from, but he’s capable of a few week streak where he’s ownable in all leagues.

Kelly Johnson – 3-for-4, HR and steal yesterday.  Whatever Yunel was drinking last week, Johnson seems like he’s bogarting it now.

Jason Schmidt – 3 IP, 4 ER.  Yup, sounds about right.

Russell Martin – Hit his third homer yesterday.  He would be leading the league if this were April 7th.

Anthony Swarzak – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER.  I wouldn’t pick him up with your team.

Seth Smith – 1-for-2, 1 steal.  After being declared the starting left fielder, he didn’t get the start Friday or Saturday.  Obviously Jim Tracy put starting in quotes.

Aaron Cook – 7 IP, 2 ER and the Win.  The third starter I had going yesterday in my crapfecta of pitchers (the other two were Lannan and Gaudin).  As I’ve said (numerous times) before, there is so much pitching out there you don’t have to have the exciting names (Liriano, Ervin Santana, Smoltz, Porcello, any number of rookie pitchers) to be competitive in pitching.  Boring works too.

Justin Morneau – 2 HRs yesterday as he makes his case for MVP.  Judge Grey presiding in the case of Morneau versus the AL field.  Without the runs and A-Rod hanging with Madge, what do you got?  A sucka in a uniform callin’ his shot…

Ervin Santana – 3 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  He’s mocking you now.  You took the flier; it didn’t work.  Let him go.  You’ll feel much better when he’s doing this to someone else’s team.

Gerardo Parra – Rico Suave’s mocking me now.  I held him for so long in a deep league.  Since I dropped him last week (4 games ago), 2 homers, 7 RBIs, 4 Runs and one steal.

Tony Pena Jr. – To go reverse Ankiel on us and become a pitcher.  If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em…

Carlos Quentin returned to play yesterday after taking a two month sabbatical for a foot thingiemaboo-boo.  So he DH’d right? Nuh-uh.  Oh, Jim Thome? Nope, Ozzie Guillen in his infinitesimal wisdom DH’d Josh Fields in the nine hole.  It’s almost like Ozzie’s daring Quentin to stay healthy.  Why not give him a hot foot with an M-80?  So what can we expect from Quentin for the rest of the season?  Best case scenario, has him playing 5 games a week and hitting well (as he did in his rehab assignment).  Maybe 15 homers, good RBIs and a .270 average.  He’s not going to come without risk.  At any point, I’m expecting word that he’ll be out for the year.  How’s that for a ringing endorsement?  So through one game, Quentin’s 1-for-4 and healthy.  Now give us forty-five more games.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Gavin Floyd – 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Now has an sub-2.50 ERA at home.  No one tell him his home is a hitter’s park.

Frank Francisco – Headed to the DL with pneumonia (the P’s silent).  C.J. Wilson will take over again.  Is it me or has C.J. Wilson been the closer for more of the year than Frank-Frank?  Francisco is supposed to return this Sunday as long as he battles pneumonia better than Jim Backus.  You are still larger than the cactus…

Nelson Cruz – Didn’t play Monday because of his fractured finger.  The Rangers said he’d be able to get back in the lineup.  The Rangers lied.  I wouldn’t be surprised if this becomes a more serious issue than was originally let on, at least that’s what my thought bubble says.

Jonathan Papelbon – Complained of stomach pain and was vomiting.  Perhaps he saw a video of his own dancing.  If he misses any time, Saito should get vulture saves.  I’d expect Papelbon to be back by Wednesday at the latest.

John Smoltz – 5 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  Has alternated between good start and terrible start since he was activated.  I’d see if he continues that trend and pitches well next time out while he was parked on my bench.

Jed Lowrie – 0-for-3 and batted ninth.  T-minus two days and counting until I cut him from my teams.  To paraphrase Meg Ryan talking to Goose, “Hit for me now or I will lose you forever.”

David Murphy – 2-for-4, HR yesterday.  If you have the luxury of only playing him when he plays, he can be valuable.  Shoot, at this point he’s hitting better than Josh Hamilton.

Jason Schmidt – 5 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners.  Finally, an NL West starter I can’t get behind.  He’s been out too long and his fastball was pretty bleh.  In an NL-Only league?  Sure.  Everywhere else?  You can do better/safer/less-Schmidty.

George Sherrill – Supposed to be traded from the Orioles.  I think Jim Johnson would step in if Sherrill moves onto a better place.  Baez may also enter the picture.  Hopefully Orioles fans don’t abandon the franchise if they lose Sherrill and Oscar Salazar in the same week.

Darin Erstad – Headed to the DL.  Hopefully you got him out of your weekly lineups about six years ago.

Vladimir Guerrero – Scioscia said, “Vlad would be limited to DH duties when he returns.”  I asked, “Why wasn’t he only DH’ing to begin with?”  Scioscia said, “The same reason I don’t play Wood.”  I said, “Oh.”

Ted Lilly – 4 IP, 7 ER.  A lefty vs. the Phillies shouldn’t have looked like any major league team vs. Sidney Ponson.  Lilly’s knee must still be bothering him.  He might end up on the DL.

Tommy Hanson – 7 IP, 3 ER, 11 Ks.  Good to see the Braves call him back up from the minors. (I know why he was demoted; it’s called being facetious. And this is called exposition.)

Yunel Escobar – 2-for-3, Batting .500 since the All-Star break with two homers while alternating between the fifth and six hole.

David Hernandez – 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners.  Don’t pick him up.  But he’s thrown three decent– Don’t pick him up.

Nick Markakis – Now has two homers in his last four games.  Sparkakis!

Felipe Lopez – 4-for-4 while leading off.  He wasn’t originally supposed to start because he couldn’t get to the game in time, so I removed him from my lineups.  Then the game was delayed and he started.  Sonavabench!

Jorge de la Rosa – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  Impressive home start from a pitcher I highlighted in the 2nd half pitcher post.

Kevin Millwood – 6 IP, 2 ER.  If you had the cojones to start Millwood at home vs. the Sawx, then you deserved the Win.

Tim Stauffer – 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 Ks.  HodgePadre worth owning in 12 team leagues and deeper.

Nick Blackburn – 5 IP, 7 ER, As I said after his last start, which was a complete game, “There’s so many pitchers each week that are potential spot starters, even in deep leagues, that I just don’t want any part of a guy that has 51 Ks in just over 116 innings.” And that’s me quoting me!

Justin Morneau – 3-for-5, 2 HRs as the Twins and A’s combined for 8 home runs.  Did Oakland install a dehumidifier?

Jason Giambi – Hit the Disgraceful List as the A’s admitted that Giambi wasn’t the ballplayer they had the first time around.  They blamed his lack of backne.

Daric Barton – HR yesterday.  Pick him up in all AL-Only leagues and 12 team leagues and deeper if you need a corner man.  He may not do much more than he’s done so far in the major leagues (170 games – 78/13/56/.239/3), but he shouldn’t kill you on average and has decent power.  If he hits, he will probably keep the job even when Giambi returns.

Matt Holliday – 4-for-5, 2 HRs, 6 RBIs with his grand slam just clearing the outfield fence.  Now has 3 homers since the break.  Maybe he realized he needs to play well to be a trade target and get the eff out of Oaktown.  He should get to 20+ homers and a .300 average.  So when you’re going into the break with 8 homers (or Wright +3), there is some room for improvement.

Jonathan Sanchez – 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 Ks.  Johnny Vander Meer’s family can now stop following around the Giants.

Usually a pitcher’s third season in the bigs is the year they truly break out. Another factor to look for is their BB/9, is it trending downwards? Another factor, is K/9 trending upwards? WHIP heading down? Innings aren’t piling on too fast? ERA, while not really a great stat, is it heading down? BABIP fine? On a team that can win some games? Check. Check. Check. Double check. Check. Yup. Oh, yeah. Uh-huh and you betcha. I might sound flippant at times, but I’m not shooting from the hip. And definitely no hip shooting, when I pegged Rich Hill as a breakout for the 2008 season. Hill had my faith. All of the data I looked at told me to ignore his spring training mechanics issue. He would figure it out. According to WebMD, Rich Hill came down with Ankielitis. A rare condition when stats don’t matter nearly as much as a psychiatrist’s opinion. He is a shook one. Maybe Greinke can sponsor him on his road back from his ‘psyche ache.’ Until then, I suggest you drop Hill in all but the deepest of leagues. I’m holding onto him right now in a NL-Only league. In all other leagues, I’ll be cutting ties. Goodbye, Hill. Oh, yeah, goodbye to Gallardo, as well. His injury isn’t the kind he’s going to come back from any time soon. You should cut ties with him in all one year leagues. That’s if you’re paying attention. (I hate people who abandon teams. But then you wouldn’t be reading this if you abandon teams, unless you just like to be contrary.) To replace Hill and/or Gallardo, I’m looking at these guys (obviously depends on league depth): Shawn Hill, Jeremy Guthrie, Jon Lieber, Tom Gorzelanny (extremely high risk, and I wouldn’t start him until he shows he can be decent), Mark Buehrle (not an every start starter), Jo-Jo Reyes (high risk, high reward), Jason Schmidt (looking for a late-May/early-June return, expect setbacks), Braden Looper (not an every start starter) and Aaron Laffey (probably loses his starting job when Westbrook returns). All and all… Ugh. But the show must go on. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday:

Taylor Buchholz – Now setting up Fuentes. I picked him up in a NL-only league and got a random save. Hey, if you’re trolling for MRs, you can do worse.

Aaron Laffey – Sometimes teams don’t have scouting reports on guys and they sneak through. Consider Laffey a sneaker at this point.

Mike Jacobs – I tried to trade him for Saito in one league. (The team announced they were punting saves and I figured I’d make a run at their only closer.) Anyway, I was denied. Hey, if you hit on enough girls, eventually you get laid. I think this non-trade could end up benefiting me in the end. That’s if Jacobs’s finger holds up.

Nick Markakis – Hit his six out of the parkakis on Sunday and he’s a second half hitter.

Kenny Rogers – Yesterday, I watched some Baseball Tonight for the first time all year. (They should consider hiring a homeless person to dress as Kruk and dole out some insight. Ravich, “Kenny Rogers can still get out of jams.” Homeless Kruk, “I urinate in public!”) The reason why I mention this because now on Baseball Tonight they highlight someone from each team in their “Fantasy Impact” section. (Maybe this is an old feature, but I don’t usually watch Baseball Tonight. I just watch the games.) So in their Fantasy Impact section for the Twins/Tigers game, who do they focus on? Cabrera? Morneau? Gomez? Sheffield? Any hitter on either team? Nope, Kenny Rogers. I kid you not. They run his line like this is helpful to someone. Outside of AL-Only leagues, is he even on anyone’s team? I think I’m getting an ulcer. Thanks, Baseball Tonight!

Joe Saunders – Kruk, “Give up solo home runs. That’s what great ones do.” Somewhere Bert Blyleven is smiling. Anyway, Saunders shouldn’t have won this game. He was very hittable.

Carlos Ruiz – Hit a home run on Sunday. Another preseason fave of mine that fell out of favor, but maybe he can get hot. If you’re still looking for a catcher, there’s still plenty of time left in the season to turn things around.

Santiago Casilla - Still no runs given up. I don’t think he reaches Orel’s record 59 scoreless innings, but he got a vulture win yesterday. Ya know, every little bit helps.

Melky Cabrera – Leads the Yankees in home runs. I think Arod might have something to say about that by the end of the year.

Robinson Cano – Sunday home run. I think you still can buy low on him, but you better act fast.

German Duran – Hit a home run as he filled in for Kinsler yesterday, but he could get time at third with Blalock on the DL (Blalock on the DL? No way!). Duran went 22/11 in Double A last year. Cust kayin’.

Jack Cust – Speaking of which, he hit another home run. He goes on streaks where you wonder why he isn’t owned on 100% of teams. Then he gets cold and you wonder why you ever picked him up. Ride the hot streak.

Chone Figgins – Looks like he might be headed to the DL, which will be a good thing rather than him sit on the bench for two weeks and hinder your ability to fill in for him.

Ian Stewart – I now have him in three leagues. I’ll probably drop him by next Sunday, but the Rockies are a bit of a mess right now. I wouldn’t be surprised if they call Stewart up sooner rather than later. If they don’t call him up, you drop him. No harm, no foul. I know you’re probably excited about the prospects of having Eric Hinske on your bench all week, but why not pick up Stewart? Are you afraid of success? Winning got you down?

Tony Pena Jr. – Hillman gave Pena 27 days to get himself straight or Callaspo gets the start.  Considering Pena has a .252 career average in seven minor league seasons, I’d say he’s probably had enough time to prove himself. Pena, don’t go away mad, just go away.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – I’ve never seen someone get so many empty lines. He has more 0-for-4s than Robert Downey Jr. has drug relapses (BTW, Thought Iron Man was entertaining if uneven. What I don’t get is why was Paltrow in this movie? Who likes her besides Chris, Apple and Moses? She really makes my skin crawl. Why can’t Mila Kunis be in every movie that needs to have, like, a girl? Kunis could’ve pulled this role off even if it does seem like she’s coked out of her mind all the time. That would’ve at least made for an interesting subtext with Bob Downey. Like when are they going to stick needles in each other’s veins? Which reminds me, for a few of those early scenes when Downey’s partying I couldn’t help but think, “Not only was he partying like this for real, but he was probably doing it while getting a hummer from Anthony Michael Hall.”)

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – He’s starting two days then Laird for two days. Best platoon ever for fantasy baseball purposes. You know exactly when to start him. I have Navarro and Salty switching out in one league, so far 6-for-14 with 2 RBIs.

Scott Kazmir – Returns to take a four inning dump. Wasn’t a fan coming into the season, and I’m still not. I’d see what I can get for him in a trade.

Mike Cameron – Hit two home runs. No reason why he can’t do his uze — 20/20, .250.

Eric Gagne – Pre-steroids testing — 84 consecutive saves. After steroids testing — 25 saves and a plus 5 ERA. Weird!

Hunter Pence – I wasn’t that high on Pence coming into the year, but he has three home runs in three games. You know, um, consecutively.

Greg Smith – At this point, I’d use him in mixed leagues (especially for his next start against the Rangers), but I wouldn’t bet that this streak of excellent pitching will last. I think he’s another sneaker.

Aaron Cook – I can’t imagine anyone’s trading for a Rockies pitcher, but if you have him I’d see what you can get.

Ryan Zimmerman – Sat for the first time in 205 games. He insists that he didn’t sit because he’s batting .217/3/14. I insist he’s an effin’ liar.

Evan Longoria – I think there’s probably a more reliable (read: boring) option on your waivers. Upside’s cool and all, but in one year leagues I’d prefer Zimmerman. And I don’t like Zimmerman. Maybe someone’s fed up in your league with Zimmerman and would like some Longoria.

Tim Redding – If picking up Redding causes you to get an erection for longer than four hours, you should see a doctor, but NL-Only owners could do worse.