Fantasy Baseball Advice

Logan Morrison was optioned to Triple-A New Orleans.  Easy to say he was demoted because of his struggles since the All-Star break, but what fun would that be?  He just started to hit again — 4 for his last 11 with a homer and steal.  As Fredi Gonzalez and Dan Uggla before him, Logan’s run out of town by the Han-Man.  Easily having his worst season, it’s pretty incredible the nerve Hanley has putting his full 5-hour energy drink towards getting rid of Morrison.  Billy the Marlin would like to demonstrate the size of Hanley’s cojones.  I imagine Logan won’t be down in New Orleans longer than a couple of weeks so don’t do anything rash in deep keeper leagues.  Hopefully Morrison doesn’t take a bath in that French-influenced city.    Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Brian Wilson – Out with a back pain.  A back issue sent him to the DL in April, so if this a recurrence it could be trouble with a capital beard.  Romo would be the first option out of the bullpen but he has a tender elbow — I always prefer al dente.  Next up, Affeldt, who’s voiced by Gilbert Gottfried, but he’s a lefty so the Giants might just go with matchups as they did yesterday turning to Ramon Ramirez aka Ram-Ram.

Brandon Belt – 2-for-4 with two homers as he returned from the minors.  Now he’ll be A) Sent down again. B) Played regularly. C) There’s no C.

Ryan Vogelsong – 7 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks, ERA now sits at 2.47.  This comes after his last start when he was hit hard by the pennant-contending Pirates, who are now 13 games out of 1st.

Doug Fister – 5 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 13 baserunners, 5 Ks.  A Twisted Fister got rocked.

Nick Markakis – 3-for-5, 4 RBIs and his 12th homer.  Sparkakis!   I’m gonna go out on a limb and say this was his best game in three years.

Kevin Gregg – 0 IP, 4 ER.  Kazaam!

Eric Thames – 1-for-3 with his 2nd homer in the last three games against Ervin and Haren.  Worth giving Thames a look if you’re power starved.  Or parved, if you’re into portmanteaus or flattened bread.

Jose Reyes – No timetable for his return, i.e., no ticky; no tocky.  The only reason for Reyes to play is to prove to the free agent market that he’s healthy, which is a pretty sizable reason so I imagine he’ll try to get out there for September.  Or Boras might put on Dan Aykroyd’s Jamaican costume from Trading Places to play in Reyes’s place.

Freddy Garcia - Scratched from his start after he cut his finger during a kitchen accident.  He said he was making his Choochie lunch and the recipe called for fingerling potatoes.

Edwin Jackson – Left yesterday’s start with a hamstring injury.  No word yet how long he’ll be out.  We’ll wait to see if we get an up or down on the Jackson pollex.

Johnny Giavotella – 1-for-4 with his third steal in the last three games.  If you need steals, I’d take him into the smush room.

Dan Uggla – Had his hitting streak snapped.  Was this the longest hitting streak ever for someone who started their streak with a sub-.200 average?  Where’s Tim Kurkjian’s crack team of voice-cracking interns when you need them?

Tommy Hanson – To the DL with what the Braves are calling “We should’ve listened to Grey last week when he said to place Hanson on the DL.”  Hanson will probably return at the beginning of September and have another three weeks of starts in his arm, just in time to break down in the H2H playoffs.

Carlos Guillen – To the DL with a wrist injury.  His wrist said, “Oblique, hip, back, hamstring, tonsils… They’ve all taken turns DL’ing us.  It was my turn.”

Jason Marquis – Out for the year with a fractured fibula.  No lie.

David Hernandez – Got the save yesterday because of an overworked Putz.  Hehe.

Franklin Gutierrez – 1-for-3, hitting near .450 over the last week.  Not sure how long he’ll last on my team, but I just grabbed The Big FraGu in one league.

Jesus Guzman – Out for last two days with an injured elbow.  He should be proud that even a minor injury would warrant (RIP) a mention.

Cameron Maybin – 1-for-4 with his 31st steal.  Here’s a sneak peek of next year’s February Grey, “Maybin went 10/40, which is better than dozens of outfielders that were taken before him, and the year before Andres Torres and Angel Pagan were similarly valuable only to flame out in 2011.  So don’t throw out the outfielder with the bath water, but keep your expectations in check.”  And that’s me foreseeing me!

Dontrelle Willis – 2 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 8 baserunners, 1 K.  Left the game with pain in his forearm.  Seems a lot more like a pain in the neck.

Jay Bruce – Hit his fifth homer in the last week.  Pray to your deity of choice that Bruce stays hot from now until the end of September.

Brandon Allen – 3-for-4, 2 runs and a RBI after being recalled on Saturday.  Not sure why he wouldn’t play every day, but I don’t think he will.  Instead, he’ll probably share time with CoJack which will hurt both of their values in AL-Only leagues.  Though I guess it could be said they were hurting their own values with this shizzy hitting.

Carlos Zambrano – Threw at Chipper on Friday, which got him ejected, then he went into the locker room and retired from baseball.  Not sure how this hasn’t happened yet, but Big Z needs to be in the WWE.  He can go by the name, The Big Loco.  His finishing move can be The Locomotion.  His ringside manager Ozzie Guillen distracts the ref and The Big Loco pulls a baseball out of his tights, yells out “Choo-choo… Locomotion!” and skulls his opponents’ head.  After he gets the three count, The Big Loco stands up to jeers and flashes his green tongue.  The only thing that can stop him is when an opponent brings a Gatorade cooler ringside which totally distracts The Big Loco, throwing him off his game.  Or if the opponent shows up ringside with Michael Barrett.  Please, WWE, make this happen.  On a side sidenote, you know how when a female is in the news for all the wrong reasons, she’ll then get a call from Hustler to pose nude?  I imagine it’s like that for men and the WWE.  So, if you ever get a call from the WWE or Hustler, I don’t know what you did but it’s ridiculous and not in a good way.

This will be my first week playing fantasy baseball without my hero, Hightower from Police Academy. God speed, big man. So the deadline came and went. Pretty unexciting stuff from a fantasy prospective. The fake baseball trade deadline is approaching by week’s end, time to analyze that roster of yours and ask “Can I make a run and if so where and with what guys?” It’s also important to think of next year for keeper leagues, take a chance on a guy who someone may value less for next year than you may. Gambles in fantasy are what pay the bills, folks. So good luck on getting your roster ready for playoff battle. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and match-ups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

8/10
Erik Bedard @ Min – Blackburn
Mark Buehrle @ Bal – Hunter
Mike Leake vs. Col – Nicasio

8/11
Cory Luebke @ NYM – Niese
Joe Saunders vs. Hou – Myers
Jeff Niemann vs. KC – Duffy

8/12
Dillon Gee @ Ari – Kennedy
Chris Narveson vs. Pit – Maholm
Brandon McCarthy vs. Tex – Wilson

Jason Marquis (Hou vs. Lyles, NYM vs. Capuano) First impressions are everything, 7 ER against the team you’re trying to catch. I do like him slightly better in Arizona, weaker hitting division, better ROS schedule.

Brett Cecil (Oak vs. Harden , Ana vs. Haren) Since his return from Disgraceful List, 3-3, 3.38 ERA and 41 K’s in 8 starts. Shows glimpses of fantasy goodness, is a next year fave for me (I said that preseason this year also) even if it’s through rose-colored glasses.

Doug Fister (@Cle vs. Masterson, @Bal vs. Britton) Should be owned! I can sit here and throw numbers at you, but I don’t want to hold your hand. Holding hands is weird for strangers. Fister is the centerfold for Sabermetric Monthly for August.

Philip Humber (@Bal vs. Britton, KC vs. Francis) Ever wonder what it really feels like to hit the fantasy wall? Well, Phil is waiting to take your calls. May get you wins this week but at the expense of 5+ ERA.

Charlie Morton (@SF vs. Vogelsong, @Mil vs. Marcum) The Pirates’ ship is sinking.  Man the life rafts!  Is a WHIP disaster and, like his team, seems to be running on fumes. Is the Hydrox to Doc’s Oreo.

Esmil Rogers (@Cin vs. Willis, @Stl vs. Jackson) Needs to build some quality innings, but potential for a back end starter could be there. Any youngin’ needs to work on control so be leery of the WHIP abuse. Remember that love Nicasio got for like a day.  Yeah, they may be fantasy clones.

Chris Capuano (SD vs. LeBlanc, @Ari vs. Marquis) ERA is a little high for everyday use, but I like this guy. He has grit or moxy or groxy. Hey, Dr. Seuss made a living making up words. Though drugs were a lot stronger back then.

Homer Bailey (Col vs. Hammel, SD vs. Stauffer) Some people like him, others come to his defense in the comments. See start on 7/28/11. Any questions? If you could ever just be whelmed, Homer would take you there.

Mike Pelfrey (SD vs. Stauffer, @Ari vs. Hudson) You ever get in a groove while listening to Pandora? Then all of a sudden they sneak a Brian Adams song in there. Well Pelfrey to me is that song.  Skip and then listen to an ad from Pauly D.

Dontrelle Willis (Col vs. Rogers, SD vs. LeBlanc) I wish fun was a fantasy category, D-Train would go first overall. Will never really be a fantasy asset, which makes me sad. Dispelling all rumors that I was the Gooch.

As Alex Rodriguez rehabs down in Miami, the heat (oofa!) is on his gambling habits.  “According to the baseball executive, MLB has yet to positively determine that Rodriguez took part in the (poker) games, which reportedly included actors Ben Affleck, Matt Damon, John Malkovich and that guy in that movie starring that other guy.”  Poker is a game played by men or women who will beat your ass, so you know A-Rod is only getting invited to these games because he’s probably the world’s worst poker player.  A-Rod’s favorite hand?  Jacks over Queens.  If A-Rod wants to avoid a suspension, he better take a long hard look in the mirror.  A-Rod, “I’m talking to the man in the mirror.  I’m asking him to make love to me.”  Man, A-Rod is so lame I almost feel bad making fun of him.  Then I think about his two trillion dollar contract and I wanna punch myself in the face.  Maybe this is how A-Rod hurt himself.  Favorite part, “This is no bluff.”  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Scott Rolen – Out for 4-6 weeks.  Or as they call it in the Rolen household, “Just another day not at the park.”

Yonder Alonso – Taking grounders at 3rd.  “Hey, this is Dusty Baker’s voicemail.  Sorry I couldn’t get your call but I was making out the lineup card without Yonder Alonso in it.”

Dontrelle Willis – 6 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Some of you might remember this, but I had this hypothesis that Dontrelle was a herbathrowdite — you know a hitter trapped in a pitcher’s body — and when he was in the AL he never felt comfortable because he couldn’t hit.  Yesterday, he hit a homer and has a 3.41 ERA so far.  It’s a theory worth noting, not a reason to pick him up.

Casey McGehee – 3-for-4, 5 RBIs and 3 homers.  Did they throw out green top hats after he hit the 3rd?

Randy Wolf – 6 IP, 5 ER, 11 baserunners, 2 Ks.  After the game, Wolf announced he was Team Jacob.  So predictable.

Corey Hart – 2-for-5 with the slam and legs.  With a little ingenuity and three point font, I squeezed Hart into my top 100 for the 2nd half.  Well, whoop dee doo, Grey!  Okay, Random Italicized Voice, but he is hitting over .400 in the last week with two homers and a steal.  Well, la di da!

Edwin Jackson – 7 IP, 8 ER, 15 baserunners, 6 Ks as he tied his owners to the WHIPping post then cat o’ nine tailed them to death with earned runs.  When one player hits a homer off you, pitch around him next time.  When one player hits two homers off you, hit him in the square of the back next time.  If he jumps a jack, then you make him wail.  Listen to Brian Seltzer, or whatever his name is, he has all the answers!

Charlie Furbush – 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Impressive first start against Billy Beane’s A’s.  If the A’s were any more impotent against Furbush, you’d think Billy Bean was the GM.

Gio Gonzalez – 6 1/3 IP, 6 ER.  Now has given up 16 runs in the last 16 1/3 innings.  Um, not so good.  He gets the Jays next time out.  That’s not so good either.  Two negatives aren’t making a positive here either.

Josh Wilingham – 1-for-4 with his 16th homer as he hits over .320 in the last week with 3 homers.  It’s against my better judgment to recommend an A’s hitter, but The Other White Meat has been hitting.

Ryan Vogelsong – 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks.  After a couple of just mediocre starts, guess he got his swagger back.  Truth.

Delmon Young – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and 2 homers.  Wednesday is Delmon’s thump day.  I’d say he hasn’t done much this year, but he really hasn’t done much in his career.  He had an okay 2nd half last year, so if you’re juggling 5th outfielders like a drunk clown, give him a shot.

J.D. Martinez – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs and his 1st homer.  He’s playing every day now that the Astros are Pence-less.  In Double-A, he had 13 homers and a .338 average in 88 games.  He looks like a lock to hit for a good average (~.290) in the majors, but the homers may top out at 20.  He has little to no speed.  Stephen also gave him some love recently.  He wrote it while popping a bubble.

Billy Butler – 1-for-3, 4 RBIs and his 13th homer.  You can’t stop him, you can only hope to contain him, which is the motto for his line of manssieres.

Gavin Floyd – 2 1/3 IP, 10 ER.  Say uncle, Floyd.

Jason Marquis – **Writing this before the game**  5 IP, 4 ER.  **Back after the game** Okay, turned out I was a little too optimistic with the Marquis de Shat as he went 4 IP, 7 ER.

Eric Young Jr. – 1-for-4 with his 2nd steal in as many games.  I feel like a beat dog when I look at EY Jr. because of how many times I’ve been excited by him only to watch him disappoint.  He’s now started every day for a week and has 4 steals.  He’s capable of 15 steals in a month.  For what it’s Wuertz, I grabbed him in every league where he was available.  May you stay, Eric Young.

Dexter Fowler – 1-for-3, 3 runs and a steal.  You know the drill.  It’s SAGNOF, all day and night.

Chien-Ming Wang – 5 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 0 Ks.  If you feel the need to grab Wang after this start, you might have some Freudian thing going on.

Jayson Werth – 1-for-4 with a homer.  Has now hit in every game in the last week with two homers and two steals.  When the guaranteed contract is in the bag and nothing is on the line, Werth is your man!

Jason Heyward – Sat again for Jose Constanza.  Who put Jason Heyward in the doghouse?  Woof, woof, woof, woof, woof.

Jason Kipnis – Sticking with the Jason theme, Kipnis now has 4 straight games with a homer.  If you want, leave your password in the comments.  I’ll take it from there.

Matt Stairs – In honor of his retirement, we go to a Razzball greatest hit from two years ago, “Bud Black said Stairs isn’t ready to return from the DL because “he hasn’t been able to run with intensity.”  Stairs can drink a beer with intensity.  He can grow a mustache with intensity.  He can probably take a crap with intensity.  If you’re waiting for Stairs to run with intensity, my guess is it will be a long wait.”  Fairly well, Stairs.

Charlie Morton – 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks, but got the no decision when the Pirates couldn’t score a run.  But what about Ryan Ludwick?!

Mike Napoli – 1-for-4 with his 17th homer and is now batting .293.  Seriously, take a moment and think about how you couldn’t keep Napoli on your team and then look again at a .293 average with 17 homers.  Who’s the schmohawk in this scenario?  It’s not me.  It’s definitely not Mike Napoli.  Go put your face up to the mirror like A-Rod.

Alex Avila – 2-for-3 with a homer.  He was mentioned somewhere… Oh, yeah!  Here.  Yesterday.  (Yeah, I busted out the one word douchey sentences.)  Now use your finger and scroll down.

Doug Fister – 7 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 0 Ks.  I had a total brain fart when I saw his record was 4-12 with a 3.29 ERA and I saw he was pitching for the Tigers.  I was like, “How on earth is his record so bad– Oh, that’s right, he was on the M’s.”  Fister, you make me punchy.

James Shields – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 6 Ks.  In his postgame interview, he said he couldn’t do it without Desmond Jennings.  Or he should’ve said that.  Tomato, tomahto.

J.P. Arencibia – Hit his 18th homer yesterday to go along with his .220 average.  Napoli’s hitting .293.

Brad Lidge – Got the save because Madson’s wife is having a baby.  I bet it’s Paul Giamatti’s baby.

The extended/new week is a pain in the you know what. It seems as though everyone knows who is pitching but have no idea of when. So I apologize in advance for the 3 comments that I will get that say “so and so isn’t pitching then and he isn’t a 2 start guy.”  So sit back relax, take the 6 minutes it takes to read this and if you have an extra 30 seconds drop me a comment.  Enjoy the week to come and good luck. (Please keep in mind that pitrchers and matchups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

7/19
Rubby De La Rosa @ SF – Bumgarner
Mike Leake @ Pit – Morton

7/20
Derek Holland @ Ana – Haren
Andrew Miller @ Bal – Arrieta
Joe Saunders vs. Mil – Narveson
Vance Worley @ CHC – Dempster

7/21
Doug Fister @ Tor – Morrow
Javier Vazquez vs. SD – Moseley

7/22
Ervin Santana @ Bal – Simon
Barry Zito vs. Mil – Marcum
Chris Volstad vs. NYM – Pelfrey

TWO START OPTIONS:

Tim Wakefield (@Bal vs. Guthrie, Sea vs. Pineda) Baltimore’s ERA is horrible — start your grandma’s bingo partner versus them. If you’re chasing wins, Wake’s an easy grab.

James McDonald (@Cin vs. Willis, STL vs. Lohse) Remember preseason when he was the only Pirates starter getting any juice in the drafts. Easily there #5 guy now. Battle for first place this week, let’s go Buccos!

Brett Cecil (Sea vs. Pineda, @Tex vs. Ogando) Needs quality innings under his belt, pitching is all about confidence. It’s either that or he wears really cool glasses. I can’t decide.

Chris Capuano (Fla vs. Hensley, @Fla vs. Hensley) So nice he gets Hensley twice. Hensley hasn’t started a game since ’08. I kind of like the odds that he doesn’t go more than 5 in both starts.

Tyler Chatwood (Tex vs. Ogando, Bal vs. Guthrie) Struggles against lefties. Doesn’t K enough to be a true fantasy contributor. Walking the same amount as you K doesn’t help his case any either. So basically I hate him.

Tim Stauffer (@Fla vs. Sanchez, @Phi vs. Halladay) A Padre out of the pet store. One of only a handful of starters with ERA under 3 and a losing record.

Dillon Gee (STL vs. Lohse, @Fla vs. Sanchez) ERA is significantly lower at home, duh. Starting to hit that innings wall and lose momentum. Rest for 3-4 starts then jump back on the G-wagon.

Jason Marquis (@Hou vs. Lyles, @Lad vs. Billingsley) ERA jump on the road. Gives up too many hits to have constant fantasy attention, league hits .295 against him. But, come on, it’s a start vs. the Astros.

Rick Porcello (Oak vs. Moscoso, @Min vs. Liriano) Rough sledding lately. Don’t lose faith, he is from the dirty Jerz. I will now listen to house music and sob quietly while I look for my Affliction t-shirt.

Fausto Carmona (@Min vs. Swarzak, CHW vs. Humber) When you watch him pitch, you completely understand the ERA and WHIP. Then you look closer, and stat heads say those numbers are inflated. Watch a real game, not everything is dictated by numbers.

So I got bored this week and decided to look at some deep rooted stats. I was looking for fantasy pitchers who don’t K a lot but are still very useful for fantasy purposes, and wouldn’t you know it, it relates well to a lot of options this week. These guys get overlooked by everyone. I’m here to learn you something. Not all pitchers who have over a 7 K/9 are candidates for rosterability. There are other factors that lead these low K/9 pitchers to greater success, they have peripherals that are better than the guys we roster. It seems that there is an affection toward pitchers who will get you more K’s but hurt your ERA and WHIP as opposed to getting a starter that has a low K-rate and helps with ERA and WHIP. All the starters I list every week are based off the roster status on multiple fantasy services and I usually use less than 50% ownership (with some variances here and there). So with that, I am telling you not to forget about the guys who get it done but go unnoticed because they aren’t Brandon Morrow. They still help just as much as the “productive” players or guys we think are more productive than they actually are. I ask you this:  Would you rather have an ERA of 2.50 with 6 K’s in two starts or an ERA of 4.50 and 12 K’s in two starts?  I understand that guys contribute to both exist, but are already owned and usually the top 30-40 pitchers overall. I’m merely talking about cusp of the roster guys. Enjoy the week to come. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

6/28
Clayton Richard vs. KC – Paulino

6/29
Carlos Carrasco @ Bal – Arrieta
Paul Maholm @ Tor – Morrow
Tim Stauffer vs. KC – Chen

6/30
Jeff Karstens @ Tor- Villanueva
Mike Pelfrey @ Det – Verlander

7/1
Juan Nicasio vs. KC – Davies
Tim Wakefield @ HOU – Norris
Bronson Arroyo vs. Cle – Masterson

Kevin Correia (@Tor vs. Reyes, @Was vs. Marquis) Should be a line painter he is so good on the road. Home/away splits are hard to ignore. Go look. See told ya. Lack of K’s make him kind of boring. I have to go dust off my Omar Moreno jersey as I told myself I would never wear it until they reach .500 in July.

John Lannan (@Ana vs. Santana, Pit vs. McDonald) ERA at 1.15 over the last 6 starts. Jump on board and ride the hot hand. Low K guys are the Monty Capuletti of fantasy. The Nats are on a pretty decent roll right now.

R.A. Dickey (@Det vs. Porcello, NYY vs. Garcia) Deserves better. Only one win to show for his 2.35 ERA over the last month. Odd stat o’ the day, Metco is a pitchers haven but his ERA is lower on the road by a run.

Jason Hammel (CHW vs. Floyd, KC vs. Francis) Pitching in Colorado stinks. It’s pretty cut and dry, ERA’s get bloated, WHIP’s get taken to the shed. Pitches just bad enough that his offense can’t help him. Last resort for deep leagues this week.

Jason Marquis (@Ana vs. Pineiro, Pit vs. Correia) Has pitched surprisingly awesome and fits the bill for the above mentioned low K guys. Gets hit around a little but pitches to contact so what do you expect? Home ERA in the mid 2’s.

Jordan Lyles (Tex vs. Wilson, Bos vs. Miller) Two tough matchups, both lineups can hit. Pitched okay last week against the Rangers. The Astros pitchers are horrible to chase wins with. K/BB rate of 4/1. Lefties only hitting .208 against.

Nick Blackburn (LAD vs. Billingsley, Mil vs. Greinke) Yet another low K guy, I can’t make this stuff up. June ERA is 2.04.  Wait, it gets better for the unappreciated, home ERA for the year is 2.40. Matchup names are scary, but anyone seen Minnesota play lately. No, go ask Buster Poindexter then.

Ryan Vogelsong (@CHC vs. Davis, @Det vs. Scherzer) You see that thing in the horizon, yeah that’s the ship that sailed. I pimped and pimped for as long as I could but he finally graduated to usefulness. Who is the next american pitcher to come back from Japan? I did the research for ya, it’s Bryan Bullington.

Andrew Miller (@Phi vs. Lee, @Hou vs. Lyles) Watched his first start, he pitched okay, and it was against the Friars. K potential is nice, being a tether ball isn’t. I asked Jerry Remy after the game what he thought, his quote “Not now, kid.” Dynamite stuff, Remdog.

Brandon Beachy (@Sea vs. Bedard, Bal vs. Britton) Prolly the most added guy in any league or format for the next week. The 11 K outing makes everyone think “I want some of that goodness.” Only bad thing I can see is he may give up some taters… Mmmm taters.