Fantasy Baseball Advice

With the top 40 outfielders, we’ve finished all the recaps for hitters.  (Here’s all the final 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  They’re also to your left… your other left.  And down.)  Pitching recap will begin next.  (NOTE:  The end of the season rankings are based on ESPN’s Player Rater.  I felt the easiest way to keep it objective would to go this course.  This way when I say someone finished 30th and I ranked them 23rd in the preseason it carries more weight.  Does this mean I think ESPN’s Player Rater is perfect?  No.  It’s just an objective third party to see how well my preseason rankings did.)  Anyway, here’s the top 40 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

21. Carlos Lee – How did he only get 65 Runs?  He played in a 160 games.  He batted .300.  He hit 26 homers.  He hit 4th the entire year.  Oh, wait, I know.  Geoff Blum hit 5th for the Astros in 171 at-bats.  Preseason Rank #3, 2009 Projections:  100/33/110/.300/7, Final Numbers:  65/26/102/.300/5

22. Andre Ethier – Maybe it’s because of the pitcher’s park or the pitcher’s division, but I never fully get behind Dodgers hitters.  Lukewarm on Russell Martin, Loney, Hudson, Furcal, Blake, Ethier and Manny.  Kemp I’m crazy for, but I think you have to be crazy to not be crazy for him.  Preseason Rank #46, 2009 Projections:  80/17/75/.290/5, Final Numbers:  92/31/106/.272/6

23. Michael Cuddyer – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen.  Final Numbers:  93/32/94/.276/6

24. Nick Markakis - Here we see the problem with relying on 25 homer power.  In an off year, they hit 18 homers and you wanna strangle someone.  Markakis had two months where he hit one homer (June and September) and one month of 2 homers (April).  His speed continues to decline.  He now has back-to-back seasons of 5 homers vs. lefties.  Markakis isn’t done in my eyes (he’s only going to be 26 in 2010), but I really would like to see 30 homers before going caca-cuckoo for him.  Preseason Rank #3, 2009 Projections:  95/25/100/.310/10, Final Numbers:  94/18/101/.293/6

25. Nelson Cruz – His season was actually much better than this ranking and that will be reflected in January when I go over 2010 rankings.  I say it’s much better because Runs and RBIs are a symptom of the guys around him.  The homers and steals can’t be taught, and he has them.  He could easily be a top 15 outfielder with better Runs and RBIs.  Preseason Rank #49, 2009 Projections:  75/25/90/.270/10, Final Numbers:  75/33/76/.260/20

26. Rajai Davis – After the All-Star Break, he stole 30 bases and hit .325.  DNA samples taken in the 2nd half of the season showed there was a 99.8% chance that Rajai was Carl Crawford.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  65/3/48/.305/41

27. Jason Kubel – In February, I alluded to how he was better value than Jermaine Dye.  And that’s me alluding to me!  Preseason Rank #61, 2009 Projections:  80/20/80/.280, Final Numbers:  73/28/103/.300/1

28. Raul Ibanez – My call on him being a 2nd half hitter looked about as good as Lady Gaga’s clothing choices.  Preseason Rank #28, 2009 Projections:  85/25/110/.290/3, Final Numbers:  93/34/93/.272/4

29. Scott Podsednik – Sometime in May, Ozzie called him into his office.  This is what transpired.  “I want vintage Podsednik!”  “I don’t know if I have it in me, Skip.”  “Skip?!  What is that?  Punta talk?  Now go uncork a 2004 Podsednik!”  And he did.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  75/7/48/.304/30

30. Adam Dunn – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen.  Preseason Rank #23, 2009 Projections:  80/40/85/.245/5, Final Numbers:  81/38/105/.267

31. Hunter Pence – The same thing that hampered Carlos Lee also got Pence.  It’s called the lack of an Astros offense.  With a little help in Runs and RBIs, Pence would’ve been ranked much higher.  Preseason Rank #35, 2009 Projections:  85/28/95/.275/10, Final Numbers:  76/25/72/.282/14

32. Curtis Granderson - There was a whole lot of math done recently on Granderson’s year.  Long story short, he should’ve hit in the .270s rather than the .240s.  As is my wont, I usually ignore average anyway when a guy brings something else to the table.  Grandy brings 30/20.  That’s a whole lotta something else.  I feel like I may be owning Grandy next year on a few teams.  Preseason Rank #19, 2009 Projections:  115/22/75/.275/17, Final Numbers:  91/30/71/.249/20

33. Franklin Gutierrez – Back in February, I said, “I’m a fan of The Big FraGu.  Decent shot at being a cheap source of 15/15.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Preseason Rank #63, 2009 Projections:  70/12/75/.260/16, Final Numbers:  85/18/70/.283/16

34. B.J. Upton – You know what would be nice?  Beej living up to(n) his potential.    Upton’s in the same category as Grandy.  Come February, I’ll be ignoring his bad average.  Preseason Rank #9, 2009 Projections:  95/20/80/.280/35, Final Numbers:  79/11/55/.241/42

35. Marlon Byrd – I suggested in the preseason that you grab Byrd and David Murphy and platoon them.  Turns out you would’ve done fine just owning them both and playing them.  Preseason Rank #68, 2009 Projections:  100/20/100/.285/10, Final Numbers:  66/20/89/.283/8

36. Nate McLouth – McLousy turned in an old school Mike Cameron season.  20/20 — yay!  .256 — eh.  Preseason Rank #18, 2009 Projections:  95/22/90/.270/22, Final Numbers:  86/20/70/.256/19

37. Andrew McCutchen – The Dread Pirate didn’t get his first at-bat of the season until June.  Go ahead, reread that sentence.  Now smize!  (The Tyra Banks definition, not the other one.)  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  74/12/54/.286/22

38. Brad Hawpe – Hawpe’s 2nd half was about as good as my ability to read Sumerian.  Apparently, the guy with the arrow on the ancient tablet means Hawpe shouldn’t be facing lefties.  Preseason Rank #34, 2009 Projections:  70/30/95/.280, Final Numbers:  82/23/86/.285/1

39. Juan Rivera – There should be a glossary term for these Juan Rivera types.  These players are available off of waivers in just about every 12 team league.  They don’t wow you with their numbers.  They don’t hurt your team.  They’re just there in your 5th outfielder slot.  Jason Kubel would be another one.  Each year, one steps up and does more than what is asked of them.  In 2008, it was Xavier Nady, this year it was Michael Cuddyer.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  72/25/88/.287

40. Chris Coghlan – Went over him in the top 20 3rd basemen post, Final Numbers:  84/9/47/.321/8

Well you came and you gave without taking but I sent you away, oh Wandy….Wandy Rodriguez yesterday gave up four homers in five innings.  That was one way to correct an abnormal home run rate.  This is three starts now that he’s been rocked.  His owners got a bye on the first one because they were called unearned runs. His 2nd one was some kind of marvel with the Pirates getting eight singles in 4 and two-thirds.  Yesterday’s, well, that was an explosion.  If anyone out there had the impression Wandy was going to be an under 2 ERA pitcher, that was a mistake.  In April, I said, “(Wandy’s) not going to finish the year under a 3 ERA, so he will take some lumps at some point.”  And that’s me quoting me!  I mean, c’mon, it’s Wandy Rodriguez.  He’s great.  I love him.  He’s my imaginary friend’s godfather.  But, for Christmas sake, he’s 30 years old and his home run rate before last night was 1.4% (It should be near 11%).  I’m still on the Wandwagon, but he’s a 3.75 pitcher.  Remember, he’s also a 8 K/9 pitcher, which is still good.  Even last night he K’d 7 guys between gopher balls.  So, the wheels are wobbling on the Wandwagon, but they’re not off.   Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jose Reyes – Torn hamstring tendon.  The Mets are saying he can still come back next week.  The Mets are not lying at all.  Reyes will be back next week.  (<– Grey being unrealistically optimistic because he just traded Dunn for him in one league.)  If Tim Roth reads Razzball, he could’ve told you I just lied.  This is bad news.  All of his value is in his legs.  A torn hamstring tendon?  Honestly, I’m praying he’s back right after the All-Star Break.  That’s my most realistic prediction.

J.J. Putz – For those holding out hope, Putz is headed to the Disgraceful List.  Stop pulling your pud and release the Putz.

Andrew McCutchen – He batted leadoff and went 2-for-4, 3 Runs, 1 RBI, 1 steal and 1 incredibly difficult last name to spell.  We might need Razzball Nation to come up with a decent nickname for him.

Miguel Cabrera – Hamstring injury forced him out of the game.  Maybe he can get Miguel Olivo to rub it down with some hot oil. (<– It’s a hunch!)

Jeff Larish – Will see time if Miggy’s down for any amount of time.  I’m assuming Leyland will bat Larish cleanup, because he locked the lineup card on Opening Day.

Nelson Cruz – Hit his 16th homer yesterday.   But he’s just about at .300, that’s when the patented Cruz Stall takes over and he ends up back at .265 by June 20th.

Josh Hamilton – Looks like he’s headed for surgery, but will seek a 2nd opinion.  Yesterday, he said it hurts when he’s “…turning over in bed. Or coughing. Or sneezing.” There’s no turning over in bed, coughing or sneezing in baseball!

Ricky Nolasco – The guy that made you cry is coming back.  There’s talk he will take Anibal Sanchez’s spot in the rotation on Sunday as Sanchez hits the DL.

Garrett Atkins – 2 HRs yesterday and now with 5.  Now he’s one off the Subaru pace car that Teahen’s driving.

B.J. Upton – Hit a two-run homer.  I didn’t see it, but my money’s on the scorer giving one of Zobrist’s bombs to Upton.

J.P Howell – Faced two righties as he got the save yesterday.  Maddon may figure if it ain’t broke don’t fix it and go with Howell as the closer.  Howell has a 2.28 ERA on the year, so it’s not broke.

Scott Baker – 7 IP, 2 ER, 10 Ks.  See what happens when there’s no one on when you give up homers?

Jason Kubel – 2 HRs yesterday as he doubled his entire of month of May’s homer total.  He’ll get to 22 homers this year, but it would be slow and tedious like watching The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

Shane Victorino – The Flying Hawaiian’s takeoff has been delayed for a day with a sore hip.  The Phils hope to have liftoff tomorrow.

Kyle Lohse – Headed to the DL.  Tough break for leagues that only use pitchers whose last names are Lohse.

Jason Bartlett – Supposed to come back next Wednesday.  If anyone dropped him when he went down, then stash him.

Alex Rios – 0-for-5 with 5 Ks.  Rios refuses to let people get too excited about him.  I don’t know, maybe it’s a fear of failure.

Adam Lind – 5-for-5, or the inverse of Rios.  This 5-for-5 game comes on the heels of a week when he raised his average from .283 to .313.  He’s a whole lot more interesting to me than Kubel, even if their numbers may end up being about the same come October.

Kevin Youkilis – Left the game with a tight right calf.  Yesterday it was an ankle injury.  He’s the Greek God of Limps.

Brett Anderson – 7 IP, 0 ER.  Sorry, Brett, I’m still not picking you up in any league.  Speaking of Bretts, there’s this guy where my girlfriend works named Brett who missed two days of work because he cut his gums on a tortilla chip and needed three stitches.  Not even joking.   I think my girlfriend works with Chipper Jones.

Chien-Ming Wang – 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER.  Picking up right where he left off…

Dontrelle Willis – Threw a no-hitter…and still gave up 5 runs.  According to Elias Sports Bureau, this was the worst no-hitter since 2003 when Sidney Ponson blanked the Phillies for one batter then gave up 8 runs.  Actually, they didn’t say that.  Though overheard this week at the Elias Sports Bureau compound, “Jim, from Accounting, paged himself to the front desk three times in one day for a new record.  The third time he got to the front desk, he was fired.”

Randy Johnson – Hey, boys and 2 girls, it’s personal ancedote time!  Rudy and I were in Vegas for New Year’s Eve about seven years ago.  So we’re discussing keepers, not fantasy baseball ones, but this girl I was dating.  She was NOT a keeper.  Between our third and fourth Red Bull and Vodkas, I head off to the bathroom.  I have the bladder of an 8th grader.  (No, I wasn’t a donor recipient.  I’m saying, I pee frequently.)  So I’m at the urinal and guess who walks up to the urinal next to me?  Randy Johnson.  Stoked, I blurt out, “Hey, it’s the Big Unit!”  Probably wrong place, wrong time.

The title was part of a special Simpsons that Kim Jong Il commissioned where Ralph Wiggum’s mouth is jammed shut full of Korean bean paste.  Stupid American!  Last year in 317 ABs, Shin-Soo Choo had 14 HRs and 4 steals while batting .309.  Though, as I used to say to one ex-girlfriend, “Beware the small sample size.” Hmm… Maybe that’s oversharing.  Choo’s last two months were a bit-torrent, to incorrectly use the slang of the kids.  If you were to project Choo’s last year stats out over a full season with a full-time job, you get the wrong idea.  He’s not a 25+ home run guy.  The good thing (as of right now), he does have the full time job.  In 2009, we should expect Shin-Soo Choo to have less power than he showed, but more speed. Think more along the lines of 20 home runs and 10 steals. To give you an old school, random idea of who to expect, Baseball-Reference says Shin-Soo Choo is most like Marty Cordova.  That seems about right.  Marty went 16/11 in his 2nd year of full-time duty… (BTW, A big, warm Razzball welcome to Marty Cordova as he Googles himself. Hope you’re wearing your SPF while you tan.) …I’d think Shin-Soo Choo could pull off about the same as Marty C.   I’d put his 2009 projections at about 19/11/.280.  Not Ryan Ludwick from last year as Berry said, but helpful.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Jason Kubel – Jason Kubel turns 27 in 2009.  As David Copperfield might say, “That shizz is magical!”  Kubel’s not going to win fantasy baseball’s most valuable player award in 2009.  He may not win Most Valuable Twin in 2009, but he can give you usable HRs, Runs, RBIs and average.  I see Kubel’s 2009 projections as 70/24/70/.280.  No, that’s not incredible, but look at Jermaine Dye’s projections, 80/30/90/.275/3.  Sure, Dye’s way more of a lock for those numbers than Kubel, but there’s still a place for Kubel, even if he only plays against righties.

J.D. Drew – Going from Choo to Kubel to Drew is like going from yawnstipating to boring to hated.  Way to attract an audience, Grey!  Drew may be injured by the time you read this, if so, disregard.  If he’s not injured, he should be owned.

James McDonald – I prefer NL starters and love NL West starters.  In particular, much love for Dodgers starters since they should have support.  James McDonald may not be mixed league material, but he could get there real quick.

Joey Votto – Off to a hot start, and it will continue.  As I said in the top 20 1st basemen for 2009, he can jump to Berkman’s level.

Adam Lind – Just when you thought it was safe to start your AL pitchers against the Jays.  For this year, I like Lind better than Snider.

Matt Cain – I said somewhere that he could be better than Lincecum this year.  And that’s me vaguely attributing a prediction to myself!

David Murphy/Marlon Byrd – I’m telling you this platoon can get you… See number 302/3.

Chris Davis – Okay, he’s sucking dog balls right now.  Agreed.  Are people panicking?  Exploit the weak!  He didn’t suddenly lose his 30/100 potential.

Fred Lewis – Beans don’t burn on the grill!  Get up that hill, Lewis.

Manny Parra – I still have faith.  It’s waning gibbous, but it’s still there.

SELL

A.J. Burnett – If you really think he’s going to throw 200 innings this year, you’re fooling yourself.  You know what happens when you fool yourself?  You end like that guy who eats a lunchmeat sandwich out of a Ziploc bag and thinks he has friends, then no one shows up at his karaoke birthday party.  If you don’t know that guy… Lay off the lunchmeat!

Chris Getz – See a quarter of a centimeter below.

DeWayne Wise – These two suck.  Don’t worry, Guillen will move them both down soon as he *pinkie to mouth* wisens up.

Mike Aviles – My preseason predictions for him are 80/10/55/.295/10 — Do you know how boring that is in actuality?  You’re looking at three-quarters of a home run or three-quarters of a steal every week and a half to two weeks.  Belch.

Aubrey Huff – I hate to sell low on people, but if you can find a sucker leaguemate who thinks last year can happen again.  Unload the Huff.

Chris Ray – Outside of keeper leagues, drop this guy until he figures it out.

Bronson Arroyo – Carpal tunnel syndrome.  Hampers his pitching and guitar playing.  Two birds, one stone.

Edinson Volquez – I don’t own him in any league and I told you I was done with Volquez in the top 20 starters for 2009 post.  He’ll have better starts than his Wednesday one, but he’s closer to a 4.25 ERA pitcher than a 3.50 one.

Joe Saunders – He looked great in the Opening Day start.  He was facing the A’s offense.  They’re not so good.

Alex Rodriguez – Rather than a Sell, this is more of a Hold.  No, not because A-Rod seems like he would enjoy cuddling.  A-Rod is aiming for a late-April return.  Will he be the A-Rod from before the hip injury, but after his cousin was injecting him in the ass?  Will he return to in medias res injection levels?  Will he have a setback?  Will he say the hell with baseball and join Madonna on her “Buff Old Ladies” tour of Africa?   Do I even know what ‘in medias res’ means?  Lots of questions need to be answered.  But, guess what, Maverick?  If you own A-Rod, you’ve already invested in the draft pick for him.  You can’t go back on that now.  So rather than selling him for a 4th round pick you could’ve just drafted instead of him, just hold him and hope he returns to form.

In the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings, we already went over 2009’s top 40 outfielders.  But like Jacques Cousteau once may have said to his underachieving son, “That’s not deep enough.”  There’s more outfielders to draft than there’s members of the Wu-Tang Clan, so we take it to the top 60 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball.  If you think there’s no value to be found this deep in the position, ask someone who owned Nate McLouth, Jacoby Ellsbury or Milton Bradley last year.  Anyway, here’s the top 60 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball:

41. Jayson Werth – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here to Juan Pierre.  I call this tier, “Guys I like, but they have caveats.”  As for Werth, will he still be… *pinkie to mouth* Worthwhile?  He should be.  In Citizen’s Bank, Werth should be good for at least 17 HRs and he can chuck in 17 steals, as well.  The one caveat is he might hit .260.  2009 Projections:  95/17/70/.270/17

42. Coco Crisp – Well, hello, Mr. Cereal.  I already went over Coco Crisp for 2009 fantasy.  2009 Projections:  90/12/60/.280/25

43. Xavier Nady – 2008 was a career year.  Nady could go 25/90 in 2009.  He’s not hitting .300 again.  2009 Projections: 80/24/90/.275

44. Conor Jackson – His 2009 projections can be found at the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 post.

45. Fred Lewis – With the bunions behind him (no, “bunions behind him” is not a euphemism for hemorrhoids), he’s ready to be valuable in 2009.  2009 Projections:  95/12/50/.270/25

46. Andre Ethier – In the top 4o outfielders post, someone asked where was Ethier.  I said, “Ethier hit 7 home runs in August and .462 in September, two insane months that don’t look like they’re going to be easily repeated.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2009 Projections: 80/17/75/.290/5

47. Mark DeRosa – DeRosa’s projections are in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 post.

48. Justin Upton – He’s very young still, but check this out.  To get you further jazzed, he led the majors with the longest average home run at 417 feet, according to “The Bill James Handbook.”  2009 Projections: 70/20/70/.260/7 but there’s lots of upside from those numbers.

49. Nelson Cruz – Went over him in a fantasy sleeper post.  2009 Projections:  75/25/90/.270/10

50. Adam Jones – Could be a younger, slightly riskier Coco Crisp.  Speaking of Coco Crisp, someone has the munchies!  2009 Projections: 75/15/60/.275/12

51. Shin-Soo Choo – Let’s call him a less stoned, more Korean Adam Jones.   2009 Projections: 70/16/70/.280/11

52. Rick Ankiel – Not sure how the Cards outfield is going to shake out, but at some point, someone’s going to have to make room for Colby Rasmus.  2009 Projections:  70/22/85/.260

53. Denard Span – I not-so-secretly hope Span fails miserably for Gomez’s sake.  Unfortunately (or fortunately if you’re Span kin — I said, spanking — hehe), I think Span’s here to stay, even in the Twins overcrowded outfield.  His batting eye was impeccable last year.  2009 Projections:  90/8/60/.285/20

54. Juan Pierre – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Taveras.  I call this tier, “SAGNOF.”  2009 Projections:  Steals

55. Willy Taveras – I have two words for you…. Actually, that was six words to get to the two words so eight words… Well, technically, now I’m up to twenty-one words.  Anyway, Dusty Baker, that was the original two words.  Baker’s going to bat Taveras lead-off and let him run like crazy.  He might just get 80 Steals and 60 Runs.  2009 Projections:  Lotsa steals.

56. Mike Cameron – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Kubel.  I call this tier, “The Forgetten Vets.” If Mike Cameron and Adam Dunn were invited to a pinata party, we can guarantee one of two outcomes:  no candy or a whole lotta candy.  2009 Projections:  70/22/75/.245/18

57. Nick Swisher – Swisher’s 2009 projections can be found at the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 post.

58. Hideki Matsui – I almost put Eric Byrnes here, but he’s old and he relied on speed.  Matsui will prolly get 400 ABs this year and produce solid numbers for a deep league.  2009 Projections:  70/18/80/.285

59. Randy Winn – As is the case with this tier, these guys offer little upside.  Winn is the epitome of that.  2009 Projections:  80/12/60/.290/17

60. David DeJesus – You have Kelly Johnson and the dealer is showing David DeJesus.  That’s a push.  2009 Projections:  70/12/75/.290/12

61. Jason Kubel – I just couldn’t resist adding one more name.  Some people may look at Kubel and say yawnstipating, I look at him and I say not that far from Jermaine Dye’s numbers.  2009 Projections:  80/20/80/.280

After the top 60 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but here’s two that stand out:

Jeff Francoeur – There’s certain guys you can grab late to look for upside-slash-a bounce back year, Frenchy ain’t one of them.  I wouldn’t draft him with your team.  2009 Projections:  65/18/70/.260

Elijah Dukes -  The location is the car.  The scene is Dukes and Milledge carpooling to work.  Did you bring quarters for the toll? I thought you got some when you bought that BK Broiler.  Those are MY quarters! Screech to the side of the road.  2009 Projections:  75/20/70/.265/15 (<–not as optimistic as you might think)