Fantasy Baseball Advice

That sound you hear is my heart going a pitter patter for Brandon Belt.  That sound you might also hear is Bruce Springsteen on my iTunes.  He’s singing the September 11th Telethon version of My City Of Ruins.  It gives me chills eleven years later.  Now to completely sully that beautiful image, I keep hearing, “Now the sweet veils of fantasy… Drift through the evening news…  Young men at my corner…Like scattered leaves… The boarded up closers… I can’t believe one of the injured closers wasn’t Huston Street… The hustlers and base thieves… My pants are down below my knees… Where’s my Belt?  My team’s in ruins!  My team’s in ruins!  Come on rise up!  I need a Belt.  Come on rise up!  I need my Belt!”  At this point, I don’t care if Belt plays every day, he should be owned IN CASE (caps for emphasis, not aesthetics) he plays every day.  He’s capable of great things.  Trust me, if you drop, say, Jason Kubel, you won’t regret it, but if you don’t pick up Belt you may.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Alfredo Aceves – How about we get SAGNOF out of the way right off the bat this week?

Joel Peralta – I just hope this doesn’t turn into a closer Frankenstein named Joel P. HowGeeney.

Matt Thornton – Know what Robin Ventura needs?  A good Nolan Ryan noogie.  I hope Matt Thornton walks away with this job, even if I don’t trust him at all, but for now it’s a closer by committee.  I’d grab Thornton, Jesse Crain, Addison Reed and Hector Santiago, in that order.  Actually, I’d only grab Thornton.  I’m not speculating on four closers on a terrible team, but your straits may be more dire than mine.  Saves for nothing and the chicks for free.

Jim Johnson – As expected, Johnson was named the Orioles closer.  On a related note, my johnson is named, “The closer.”

Brad Lidge – I went over Lidge and HanK-Rod this morning.  It went something like this, “Yadda yadda eeny meeny miney yadda yadda.”  Riveting stuff.  If they gave out Pulitzers for fantasy baseball blogs, I’d be wearing a bunch of those puppies around my neck.  I’d be like the Flavor Flav of blog Pulitzers.

Henry Rodriguez – See 1/8th of an inch above or like 48 inches below to the other post.  Choose your own adventure!

Sean Rodriguez – At shortstop, he could be like Ben Zobrist but as a batting average risk and who doesn’t sound Jewish.  Or Low-BA Nobris.

Rafael Furcal – Looks like your standard Early Bird Special, which is fine for April, but if you show up too late you may have to pay full price for the egg salad sandwich.

Freddy Galvis – Haven’t talked much (if it all) about Galvis.  He’s the Phillie fill-in (kinda stutterer!) for Utley while he recovers from Glass Chipperitis.  Never one to shy away from telling you to pick up a guy about three weeks before everyone else and looking like a complete ass while doing it, I bring you Freddy Galvis.  Last year in Double-A, he had 19 steals in 104 games and 4 more in Triple-A in 33 games.  For a fast guy, he’s pretty egregious at getting on base and might hit under .220, which is, as a bowling alley that doesn’t cater to little people will tell you, no small feat.  If you’re crunched for speed and in a deep league, I’d take a look at him.

Lorenzo Cain – Lo-Cain will get you high without the teeth grinding and you don’t need long fingernails like you’re an old Asian man.

Ryan Sweeney – I baited you this morning to come back to read about Sweeney, and — surprise! — I’m kinda lukewarm on him.  He doesn’t have a ton of power or speed, but he can get you some average over the next month while Crawford is out.  He reminds me of Omar Infante.  Let’s call him, Omar ByMayImmaFinished.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis – Just went over him this morning.  Use your scrolly finger.

Juan Nicasio – Ma nish ta nitcher.  That’s, “How is this pitcher different than all other pitchers?” for those that don’t know Hebrew.  Nicasio can give 140 Ks and a three and a half ERA over the course of the season, that’s how.

Tommy Milone – Let’s get down to brass tacks!  Or is it brass tactics?  (And while we’re clarifying shizz, is it Tom or Tommy Milone?  What yo’ momma name you, fool?!  You say Tommy?  I say you full of Milone!)  Never the hoo!  You can’t get WHIP help off waivers and every team needs WHIP help unless you drafted Halladay, but then you need hitting help and that’s a whole nutter can of beans.  Yeah, I’m saying nutter instead of another.  Go with it.

Edinson Volquez – Okay, you can get strikeout help late.  Tis is true.  But you can’t get 200 K strikeout help later.  So there’s a nutter thing.

Chris Johnson – Won the Astros’ starting 3rd base gig.  That’s a lower case yay.  He had a huge spring with 5 homers.  That’s a medium case yay that doesn’t really matter anymore.  In deep leagues, you might catch lightning in a bottle out of the gate.  Plus, if you shout his name while in a urinal, you sound like you have a prostate problem.

Juan Francisco – As adults who are trying to sound like teenagers might say, dawg’s got pop for days.  I’d pick him up for a minute until Daddy Hurt Legs returns.

SELL

Jonathan Broxton – He was just named the Royals closer.  You know what?  That’s hella awesome, and I got a tip from Hella Awesome:  SAGNOF!  A basic tenet of SAGNOF! is that closers come and go and some go quicker than others.  Broxton could be fine, and don’t drop him if you lucked out into grabbing him, but, if you need any other piece, Broxton’s value will never get higher.  As soon as he pitches, his value will probably fall.  Act fast, young, premature balding man!

Michael Pineda – You knew better than Grey.  You said, “Grey’s an effin’ jerk with feathered hair, but a really cool mustache.”  I know, you did.  I don’t hate you for it.  But when you drafted Pineda, you done messed up.  You know that, right?  He’s reporting he can play catch.  That’s great news…That you tell the trade partner in your league why he should trade you something for Pineda, before he’s mysteriously shut down again.

Jason Heyward – I know it’s one game.  But I’m scared, y’all.  I think Fredi Gonzalez hates Heyward about as much as he likes to throw Venters.  And Heyward’s been striking out a lot.  He might need a change of venue.  I actually hope I’m wrong here.  I hope I’m reading too much into one game, but something’s up.  He’s far too talented to be hitting 7th, then if Chipper returns and Prado moves to the outfield and Diaz plays, Heyward could sit vs. lefties.   That’s death for his fantasy and potential trade value.  I wouldn’t trade him for a VHS of Mama’s Family blooper reels, but I would explore options.

No surprise that Johan Santana pitched well yesterday.  Everyone pitched well yesterday (except relievers).  Now I know what it was like to play fantasy baseball during the dead ball era.  “Hey, Scoots, I got me a base hit from my second bagger!  I’m so excited, but maybe that excitement is from this Coca-Cola that’s made from cocaine!  I love me some fizzle!  I’m gonna boil this Coca-Cola, then smoke the leftover brown soot.  You want in, Scoots?  Huh?!”  Can’t everyone do the juice and then use FedEx?  I miss the shrunken ball era!  Did anyone even hit a ball out of the infield yesterday?  Someone lower the mound six inches and use aluminum bats.  Please!  I need Justin Masterson looking like Bob Gibson like I need another hole in my head (I already have four; one of my ears closed up after listening to the Cleveland Indian announcers).  Can’t say I wasn’t unpleasantly surprised to see Johan pitching.  It would’ve been straight pleasantly, but I don’t own him anywhere.  He’s not the pitcher he once was.  He’s not going back to that, but he looked like he could be a fairly competent number three fantasy starter if — and this “if” is the size of Gilbert Grape’s mom — he can stay healthy.  Though, after yesterday, every healthy pitcher may be a competent number three.  Now go smoke some Coca-Cola soot!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Frank Francisco – A perfect inning save.  It’s safe to drop Rauch and/or Parnell.  If you want, pretend you’re going catch Rauch in a trust exercise, then let him drop.  It’s more fun that way.

Jason Bay – 0-for-3.  I’m putting the over/under at 24 months for how long until he’s out of baseball.

Andres Torres – Left the 7th inning with a calf strain.  He’s headed to the DL.  Boo.  Or, I guess with an injured calf, it’s moo.  Scott Hairston should now see starts against lefties.  Jerry Hairston Sr., you named the wrong one after you!  (And, really, how do you not name one of your sons, Harry?)

Kirk Nieuwenhuis – He sounds like a piece of furniture at Ikea, but don’t sleep on this guy!  See what I did there?  Yeah, I’m not sure either.  Nieuwenhuis has double digit speed and power and should see the righties in the outfield platoon with Hairston.  In NL-Only leagues, I’d definitely grab him because if he hits, he may push Bay to the bench.

Ian Desmond – 3-for-5 with a steal.  I know he’s not going to hit .600 this year (though he will maintain his 162 steal pace), but can everyone stop putting a mirror up to his nose to see if he’s dead?

Brad Lidge – 1 IP, 0 ER as he got the save yesterday (though it wasn’t pretty.  Though II, The Return of Though:  Lidge hasn’t had a pretty save in three years).  Davey Johnson said he’s going to alternate back and forth between Lidge and Rodriguez for saves.  In other words, he’s doing the highly scientific method of Eeny Meeny Miney Moe.

Stephen Strasburg – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Worked through seven innings with only 82 pitches.  He dispatched of the Cubs Thirty Days’ War-quick.  Woot, woot, House of Strasburg, raise your pith helmets!

Tommy Hanson – 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Saw glimpses of Hommy Tanson yesterday, but also saw glimpses of why I avoided him this year.  He seemed to labor a bit through five innings only throwing in the upper-80′s, then luckily was bailed out by Kris Medlen, the newest flat-billed pitchypus.

Jason Heyward – 0-for-4, as he batted 7th against a lefty.  I imagine he’ll move up to 6th vs. righties, but he needs to hit his way out of the bottom of the order, like, quickfast.

Ryan Dempster – 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 10 Ks.  I don’t think I drafted him anywhere (Grey have too many teams), but I did like him in the preseason (member that phase of our life?  It was seventy-two hours ago, which sounds like a bad action-thriller).

Bryan LaHair – Missed the opener because his back pain was too much to LaBear.

Alfredo Aceves – One game, one inherited runner allowed to score for the Tigers’ walkoff win.  So far, so good!  I thought Bobby Valentine was hitting the sauce when he put Alfredo in as the closer, but he wasn’t creamed yesterday (that was like a triple pun point), so I doubt anything’s changed with the bullpen situation.  If anything, Melancon just made himself look worse.  “Do I have to stand in the corner?  Big Papi farted over there.”  That’s Melancon after being scolded.

Ryan Sweeney – 2-for-4 with a triple.  He’s in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  His sister, Julia, is not.

Jay Bruce – 1-for-3, 2 RBIs, 1 run.  One B, one R, one C, one E and eleven U’s, what do you get?

Zack Cozart – 2-for-4, 1 run.  Bu-da-ba-bah-dah!  Bu-da-ba-bah-dah!  That’s Cozart’s Out Of The Minors Concerto played from the two hole.

Chris Heisey – Launched a double in his only at-bat.  Might be the best 4th outfielder in baseball.  Wait, that would mean Ludwick is better than him.  Yeah, Heisey’s the best 3rd outfielder that is currently a 4th outfielder.  Hopefully, Dusty and his toothpick get on the same page and move Ludwick to the pine.  On a real baseball note, the Reds are gonna be tough this year.

Johnny Cueto – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 4 Ks.  He came up against a Miami club that left Crayola Canyon late on Wednesday and had to play again early on Thursday.  I’m not reading too much into Cueto’s start (actually, I guess I am).  I’m still not going in on Cueto.

Ryan Doumit – Slated to start in the outfield on Opening Day.  Guess no one told the Twins Doumit is German for “Without Mitt.”

Scott Baker – It takes a certain kind of mettle to get injured while rehabbing from an injury and Baker’s heavy with that mettle.

Jonathan Broxton – The Royals named Broxton the closer.  Too bad they didn’t also name a closer for the White Sox.  Can go ahead and drop Holland.

Jack Hannahan – Hit a 3-run HR, his 3rd opening day HR.  It’s too bad closing time at Hannahan’s is April 30th.  Enjoy the happy hour specials while you can.

Justin Masterson – 8 IP, 1 ER, 3 baserunners, 10 Ks, but no win.  Let’s see if you can guess the theme?  Morroccan!  No, Random Italicized Voice.  The theme is great start from the starter followed by hideous relief.

Chris Perez – 2/3 IP, 3 ER and the blown save.  Cleveland isn’t known for BBQ, but their closer sure looks like smoked meat.  He should let Masterson go Brutus Beefcake on his mullet for blowing his awesome start.  Perez owners – if you haven’t done it already – grab Signore Pestano.

Jose Bautista – 3-for-4 with his first home run (since I started believing him — I’ve been backwards dunked in Bautista’s waters!).

J.P. Arencibia – 1-for-7, 3 RBIs and a home run.  Sounds about the going rate for Arencibia — he’s a one spicy catcher!

Brett Lawrie – 0-for-6.  Drop him!

Roy Halladay – 8 IP, 0 ER, 2 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Since Spring Training is still fresh in everyone’s brain, do you remember how ridiculous it was when people were saying Halladay’s lost velocity and getting pounded?  I mean, it’s not like he was going against the 1988 A’s yesterday, but c’mon.  Don’t aggravate Grey.  You disrupt his mustache’s sheen.

Jose Valverde – 1 IP, 2 ER….and there goes the suspense for whether Valverde could go perfect in save opportunities for a 2nd year in a row.  The last guy I remember being perfect was Lidge in 2008 and he had – gulp – 11 blown saves the next year.  Anyway, in summary, Valverde sucked but owners can’t be mad because he got the conshellation prize, Verlander owners can’t be mad because he threw an awesome start, leagues with QS instead of Wins have already programmed out any Blown Save-related anger like a robot who can’t feel emotions.

Justin Verlander – 8 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Of course, he pitched well.  Dan Cortese from Rock ‘n Jock Softball could’ve pitched well yesterday.

Clayton Kershaw – Only pitched three innings because of a stomach flu.  Or maybe Bobby Valentine is managing the Dodgers by satellite and thought Kershaw should be a middle reliever who starts games.

Kenley Jansen – 1 IP, 2 ER.  I’m not sure there’s anything more frustrating than a middle reliever you know isn’t going to get saves that you own for ratio and strikeout help that gives up runs.  It’s like you make an arrangement with a girl that it’s strictly a sexual relationship and then you meet her parents.  During sex.

On Base Percentage (OBP) is what Skynet created for the Oakland A’s so they could win the World Series and ruin baseball.

Actually, that doesn’t sound quite right. I think OBP is the brew baseball writers’ fermented in a basement to scare Andre Dawson, or it was the reason pitchers feared Jim Rice, thereby making him a Hall of Famer.

I’m all confused. But, apparently, Razzball readers and commentators aren’t. According to the recent survey we conducted (to mine all of your personal information to sell to Facebook), a ton of you play in leagues that swap out average for those crazy on base skills. Accordingly, this changes the value of several players:

Jose Bautista: Over the last three seasons (including Bautista’s generally poor 2009), Bautista has the eighth best OBP. Last season, Bautista was just .001 behind the OBP leader, Miguel Cabrera, and over the last two seasons, Bautista has the third best OBP in all of baseball. The only glaring weakness in Jose Bautista’s armor is average. If you substitute OBP, Bautista is a legitimate best-player-in-the-format candidate.

Lance Berkman: Berkman’s .412 OBP last year was the fifth best in all of baseball and not far off his career mark (.409). While Berkman’s average is typically useful, his OBP is top 10, making him a four-category stud. With OBP instead of average, Berkman should pass the likes of Paul Konerko, Mark Teixeira, and Eric Hosmer and is a top six first baseman.

Adam Dunn: Until 2011, Dunn was the answer to the question of who benefits most from the switch to OBP. Last season, he posted an OBP under .300. Oddly enough his walk rate was close to his career norm, but his already high K-rate spiked, his ISO and BABIP cratered and he hit .159. Dunn can walk and appears to be approaching 2012 with more determination. A return to .350 OBP is certainly plausible and has some upside. Last season, Mike Stanton with a .356 OBP had the 40th best mark.

Prince Fielder: Fielder and Pujols have the same OBP over the last three seasons. During that time, Pujols has just 10 more HRs and eight more RBIs. In addition, during that same span, Cabrera has an OBP .012 points higher, 14 less HRs and 10 less RBIs. Fielder isn’t the top 1B in OBP leagues, but he isn’t far off. His move to the American League could depress his numbers somewhat, but in OBP leagues, he is a top producer.

Carlos Pena: While Carlos Pena’s OBP skills do not produce league leading rates, they do erase the stank displeasure of his putrid batting average. Pena has a .239 career average, but .352 OBP. A first baseman capable of hitting 25-30 HRs with a .355 OBP is top-10 consideration.

Mark Reynolds: Like Pena, Reynolds makes an untenable batting average disappear with a superior walk rate. For his career, his OBP is about 100 points higher than his batting average. While his .323 OBP last season was tied for 99th best, it’s a far cry from where his average would rank him. Reynolds is an incredibly attractive option in OBP leagues, as his immense power is not entirely derailed by a sub-optimal OBP. Grab Reynolds with confidence that you will get a .330 OBP, with 35 HRs and near 100 runs and RBIs.

Carlos Ruiz: Over the last three seasons, Ruiz trails only Joe Mauer in OBP. His .376 mark is far ahead of the third place healthy backstop Brian McCann. An afterthought in most leagues, Ruiz can provide solid catcher production in OBP leagues at virtually no cost. Pencil Ruiz in for a .365 OBP, eight HRs and 50+ runs and RBIs.

Nick Swisher: Nick Swisher in an on base cyborg. When you throw out Ryan Braun, Jose Bautista and Lance Berkman, Swisher has the fourth best OBP over the last three seasons (behind Matt Holliday, Shin-soo Choo and Carlos Beltran). With Swisher’s .365 OBP and the Yankee line-up, runs and RBIs will be there. He’ll also add good pop and, best of all, you don’t have to worry about his .255 average.

Ben Zobrist: Zobrist, who walks at a great clip, has the ability to post the second best OBP at the position (behind Dustin Pedroia). A basic 20-20 guy with 100 runs and RBI potential, Zobrist takes a massive step forward in OBP leagues when they do away with his .260 average.

OBP Sleeper Values

Daric Barton: Over the last three seasons (1,158 plate appearances), Barton has a .373 OBP. He crashed and burned last season, but still posted an above average walk rate. If healthy, Barton should post a .365 OBP with 10 or so HRs, 80 runs and 70 RBIs. He could be a sneaky value in OBP leagues.

Jack Cust: Like Barton, Cust was horrible last year. However he had a .366 OBP from 2009-2011 and is moving from two difficult parks (Oakland and Seattle) to the hitter friendlier Houston and NL Central. In the easier league, Cust’s walk rate should play tremendously, possibly to the tune of a .370 OBP. He could also add 20-25 HRs and solid RBIs. As a flier, Cust’s upside makes the gamble reasonable.

Dexter Fowler: If only Fowler knew how to steal bases! His .365 OBP and 12.1% walk rate last season was a good step forward and echoed his minor league successes. He’ll likely only produce two categories: runs and OBP, but has a decent shot at 20 steals and upside to more if he ever figures out how to use his speed.

Jason Heyward: While Heyward hasn’t quite become a star, he knows how to get on base (13.2% walk rate, .362 OBP). In addition, his legitimate and realistic upside to 20+ HRs and 15 SBs make him worth reaching for in drafts. As he gets on base, he’ll score runs and has a solid shot at triple digits. At the worst, you have a solid run and OBP contributor with a little pop and speed.

Nate McLouth: Aside from a rough 2010, McLouth has shown above average on base skills. In fact, he posted double digit walk rates in every season since 2007, excepting 2008. As a late flier, McLouth makes a ton of sense. He should post a .345 OBP, get close to double digit HRs and steals and provide somewhat solid counting stats.

Geovany Soto: Soto’s treacherous average makes betting on his power unreasonable in average leagues. However, his 11.8% walk rate and .348 OBP solidify his power. As a catcher capable of 17-20 HRs with a .340 OBP, he is a clear top 10 option.

Those that get hurt in OBP leagues

Adrian Beltre: Beltre has been a good hitter throughout his career, especially since his escape from Seattle (.309 average last two seasons). However, he averages just 41 walks a season and has only posted two OBPs above .331 since 2001. His 2011 OBP was lower than that of Edwin Encarnacion, Ryan Roberts, Evan Longoria, Aramis Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis and Michael Young, whereas he had the third highest average among qualifiers at the position last year. He simply doesn’t walk enough and projecting and OBP over .335 is silly. While he remains a top seven option or so, hot corner specialists like Ryan Zimmerman, Youkilis and others can have more of an impact in OBP leagues.

Starlin Castro: There are a ton of shortstops with small gulfs between their averages and OBPs. Castro, who hit .307, is one of those. His average last season was only behind Troy Tulowitzki, however his OBP trailed eight shortstops. Given his age, there is optimism for growth, however Castro loses some luster in OBP leagues.

Robinson Cano: Cano has been a batting average superstar for much of his career. However, aside from 2010, he’s never been an on base machine. Last season, his OBP was seventh at the position and over the last three seasons is fifth. Meanwhile, Dustin Pedroia is an OBP dynamo. Certainly swapping average for OBP closes the gap between Cano and Pedroia. In this format, I wouldn’t mind passing on Cano and securing Pedroia.

Ian Desmond: Desmond just isn’t very good, so we shouldn’t be surprised he gets dinged in OBP leagues. His career .304 OBP was actually better than his effort last season, even though he improved his walk rate. There’s some optimism that Desmond can get his OBP to the .310-.320 range as he did improve his walks and cut down on swinging strikes and swinging at balls, however, over the last three seasons, roughly 30 shortstops have averaged OBPs over .315.

Alcides Escobar: In OBP formats, Escobar becomes a true one-category producer. His career .294 OBP is putrid and he has shown no signs of improvement (his walk rate declined in 2011, he chased more balls out of the zone and swung and missed more). He might be good for 25 steals, but that’s all he’s good for in fantasy.

Jeff Francoeur: Over the last three seasons, Francoeur’s .314 OBP is 75^th among OFs, nestled between Aaron Rowand and Luke Scott. While his OBP improved last season, it was in large part thanks to a .323 BABIP and .285 AVG – he didn’t walk anymore and actually struck out more than normal. It is prudent to temper expectations for Francoeur in OBP leagues, especially because if that OBP suffers he’ll have no chance of reaching 20 steals again.

Ichiro: Just like Dunn has been the perennial gainer in OBP leagues, Ichiro has been the perennial loser. His .351 OBP over the last three seasons is 30^th among OFs, while his .312 average is third. While many expect a bounce back, Ichiro is unlikely to post an OBP above .345, which, last season, would have tied him for 28th at the position. OBP leagues take away one of Ichiro’s calling cards: his superior average and relegate him to #3/#4 OF status.

Adam Jones: Jones really likes to swing the bat; his swing percentages have gone up pretty much across the board every season. In fact, his O-Swing% (the percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone) is at Vlad Guerrero levels. While he has been able to post solid averages, his swinging has translated to miniscule walk rates. He’s a fine option for average leagues, but his OBP over the last three seasons is 70th among OFs. In addition, his OBP has been trending downward: .335 in 2009, .325 in 2010 and .319 in 2011.

After the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball, guess what we have here?  The top something-something’s? Cute, random italicized voice.  We have the top 40 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  That’s right, Wonderful just gave birth to Awesome.  Wanna hear something even awesomier?  I’m going to turn this to 60 then 80.  Hopefully I don’t blow my amp.  The hardest part about writing these 2012 fantasy baseball rankings posts is writing this opening.  Trying to make the clerical stuff sound less clerical, ya know?  So I just copied the openings from previous years where applicable.  As with other rankings, where I see tiers beginning and ending are mentioned along with my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball:

21. Drew Stubbs – This tier started in the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This tier goes from here until Kendrick.  I call this tier, “I’ll happily reach for one of these guys if I have to, in the non-sexual way.  Though it’s kinda sad this is the third tier of outfielders that I’m excited about.  Times is tough, yo.”  Stubbs isn’t really the same player as Fellatio Upton, so I battled with how to get him out of the same tier.  I battled myself by dunking my hands in two bowls of Jell-O, then thumb-wrestling myself to a ten round draw.  I ended up figuring it was fine to put Stubbs in the same tier but below him.  2012 Projections:  80/17/55/.240/40

22. Krispie Young – Krispie is another guy that I kinda wanted to move to another tier and he’s even pretty far below Stubbs (though it sure doesn’t seem that way in these rankings).  What Krispie has going for him that Beej and Stubbs don’t is 25-plus homer power.  He’s pretty seriously deficient in average though, and when I’m saying that compared to Stubbs and Upton, it’s saying something.  Grey said, “Something.”  See?  2012 Projections:  85/25/80/.235/25

23. Jason Heyward – This is probably the furthest I’m out on a limb with an outfielder.  He could be a worse pick than Markakis.  Last year Heyward hurt his shoulder, then Glass Chipper started questioning his manhood even though Chipper invented the oblique just so he could miss 40 games a year.  Heyward’s BABIP was obscenely low so he should hit at least 40 points higher without much effort.  Hitting for a better average with a healthier shoulder should help him build confidence, move him up in the order and hit for more power.  You could blend those variables together and you may end up with a wheatgrass/kale antioxidant health drink that is supposed to be good for you but just makes you want to vomit.  If at any point in the spring there’s news that his shoulder is still bothering him, I’ll drop him way down in the rankings.  2012 Projections:  80/22/90/.280/10

24. Howie Kendrick – I went over Kendrick’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

25. Shin-Soo Choo – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Gordon.  I call this tier, “I could see myself missing out on these guys because others are believing them more than me.” Most ‘perts are looking at Choo’s 2011 as an aberration.  That wasn’t Soo Choo, that was Soju.  An Asian flush with bad luck.  So last year he had a .317 BABIP (off his career rate, but not really that terrible), a 1o.4% HR/FB (again, not hideous), a 10.1% walk rate (not bad) and a 21.8% K-rate (around his career rate).  He missed a bunch of games because of injury.  If he’s healthy, he’s back to the 17-20 homer, 17-20 steal guy.  Yay.  I don’t know; it’s all right.  I’m not excited to draft him.  2012 Projections:  80/17/85/.280/17

26. Carl Crawford – Last year, things started poorly and went from bad to Mad Libs in the cliche.  Slumps get into guys’ heads and if there isn’t a big girl around to have sex with that slump can last longer than anyone wants.  I’m willing to ignore last year.  Really, I am.  Then the wrist surgery this offseason.  Damn, that wrist got me pist.  Red Sox are reporting he should be ready for Opening Day.  I’m reporting he’s going to miss a month.  There’s a small silver lining.  His wrists aren’t his legs.  Hey, I should’ve gotten better than a C in Human Anatomy!  If he falls, I could see gambling on him, but it’s probably not going to happen if you follow my rankings.  2012 Projections:  75/10/70/.280/30

27. Alex Gordon – Here’s what I said at the end of last year for Gordon, “Gordon’s line this year was 101/23/87/.303/17.  Terrific!  Wonderful!  Tonderific!  But if you peek under the hood, things aren’t as they seem.  His BABIP is .358, easily a career high in the majors.  His walk rate and line drive rate dropped from last year, and his ground ball rate nudged up.  His homers and speed look about right, but if luck goes against him those two categories could get affected.  He’s probably much closer to a .280 hitter with 17-20 homers and 12-15 steals.  With just a tad bad luck, he becomes a fifteen homer guy with 10 steals and a .265 average.  That’s far from spectacular.  That’s spectaculess.  I just made that up; you like it?  You use it.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2012 Projections:  85/20/100/.280/12

28. Brett Gardner – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Rasmus.  I call this tier, “I’m targeting these guys for my teams.  They might all end up getting sleeper posts.  You’ve been forewarned.  (Bee tee dubya, the projections in this tier are a bit optimistic, but I’m sick of hiding my excitement.  Let me free-ball and show you my love!)”  I’m unabashedly a fan of Gardner, which makes very little sense if you’ve read this site for an extended period of time because usually I ignore SAGNOF’ers and just grab one later or off waivers.  To me, Gardner is underrated, which is odd because Yankees are usually overrated.  Gardner is just an enigma wrapped inside a riddle inside a fortune cookie that reads, “Person who sleeps with scratchy rear wakes with smelly finger.” 2012 Projections:  105/8/50/.280/50

29. Jayson Werth – Ponder this, guys and three girl readers, is Werth that different from Corey Hart?  Okay, stop pondering it, your eyes are crossing.  He’s not hitting 35+ homers again like he used to in Citizens Flank, but he should also be better than last year and the Nats offense is looking solid.  Yeah, I know how weird that sounds.  Don’t point out the obvious.  2012 Projections:  75/22/90/.265/15

30. Logan Morrison – His Isolated Power was .221.  Dan Uggla’s was .220.  Paul Konerko’s .217.  Jay Bruce’s .217.  Logan Morrison only hit 23 homers last year.  He missed almost 40 games last year because of injuries and his inability to put the cone of silence on his Twitter account.  He’ll only be 24 years old for the better part of 2012 and the Miami Marlins revamped their lineup by throwing some fabulous moolah around for a World Series ring.   2012 Projections:  60/25/75/.270/5

31. Michael Cuddyer – Went over Cuddyer’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

32. Peter Bourjos – What does it mean that Bourjos is ranked this high?  It means we’re all screwed.  Sorry, don’t mean to yell fire in the theater of Razzball, but outfield is shallower than a conversation with a Kardashian.  I already went over my Bourjos 2012 fantasy.  I wrote it while refusing to eat at Subway because it reeks of onions.  2012 Projections: 85/15/50/.255/35

33. Alex Rios – I wrote an Alex Rios 2012 fantasy post.  It pained me to write that post and I hope you forgive me but I felt like it needed to be said.  Now please forget the apology if I’m right or forget that I wrote the post if I’m wrong.  Thanks, over-the-internet friend!  2012 Projections:  75/17/85/.270/22

34. Colby Rasmus – I’m out on serious limbs with some the players’ rankings in this tier.  Just when you thought I was totally out of my gourd with my Rios ranking, here’s Rasmus about 35 spots ahead of where I see some other ‘perts ranking him.  The key thing with drafting is you are drafting for the upcoming year, don’t try and put together a team that would’ve kicked serious booty while bagging last year’s doubloons.  That’s not going to win you something, but hopefully I just learned you something.  Hey, that sounds like a rhyme Pitbull would make.  Blah blah blah Kodak, blah blah blah Kodak.  2012 Projections:  85/22/70/.265/10

35. Corey Hart – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Ethier.  I call this tier, “I’ll reluctantly draft these guys, but I’d rather not.”  On first glance, Corey Hart’s season last year looks okay.  On second glance, his 2010 season of 31 homer, 7 steal 2010 and 2011 of 26/7 look remarkably similar — he simply had 15 less games last year.  On third glance, you see his fly ball rate plummeted and start to think his homer per fly ball rate is unsustainable.  On fourth glance, you start to wonder why you’re looking at Corey Hart’s numbers four times.  On fifth glance, there is no fifth glance.  On sixth glance, you think about how he may not break 75 runs or RBIs without Prince Fielder, fifty games of The Hebrew Herpes and the invariably injured Weeks.  On seventh glance, you accidentally hypnotize yourself and begin to cluck like a chicken in front of an audience of strangers.  2012 Projections:  75/24/70/.265/8

35 1/2. Yoenis Cespedes – I went over my Yoenis Cespedes fantasy while studying for Jeopardy!  2012 Projections: 65/20/80/.250/12

36. Nick Markakis – The last four years his homer totals have been 20, 18, 12, 15.  One of these years he may stand up and say he is Sparkakis, but until then I don’t care to gamble on a guy that is averaging 16 1/4 homers a year.  I mean, who ever even heard of quarter homers?  Those are singles, Nick.  Elevate the ball.  2012 Projections:  80/18/85/.295/10

37. Ben Zobrist – Went over Zobrist’s projections at the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball post.

38. Andre Ethier – This tier that I’m planning on missing makes an already shallow outfield that much more shallow.  I get that.  That’s why I named this tier, “I’ll reluctantly draft…”  I don’t like Ethier, but I can’t turn my nose up at dozens of guys this year.  I don’t buy into Ethier bouncing back to being a top 20 outfielder.  I say if you draft him, you’re going to get a top 30 outfielder at best.  That means he’s ranked near his ceiling.  Opportunity costs will probably have me looking elsewhere.  Hypothetical things that have no weight need to be weighed.  It’s all very scientific.  2012 Projections:  70/22/85/.295

39. Torii Hunter – This is a new tier.  This tier ends at Vernon Wells then starts again in the top 60 for 2012 fantasy baseball so I can sneak in the SAGNOF tier.  I call this tier, “Vets that I’m either lukewarm about or slightly more than lukewarm about.  Read the temperature gauge.”  The guys in this tier are mostly okay, unless you draft your team then get in a DeLorean and play out your fantasy league in 2004.  Then they’re awesome!  Maybe one of the guys in this tier has a Lance Berkman 2011 year.  There always seems to be one, but don’t say you know which guy it is — someone might be listening.  If I had to bet on a surprising year from one vet, I’d go with Torii Hunter.  Lineup’s going to be the best he’s had in a while and he can lamp in the outfield.  Will he definitely surprise like that doode from Community coming out with one of the best albums of 2011?  Nah, but the Torii Hunter gambino won’t cost you much.  2012 Projections:  80/24/90/.270/7

40. Vernon Wells – Cause crazy talk isn’t just something that I reserve for Alex Rios, I also wrote a Vernon Wells sleeper post.  No, there will be no sleeper post about Todd Helton, but that’s funny and sarcastic.  You’re a double threat!  2012 Projections:  75/25/85/.260/8

40 1/16. Michael Bourn – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of this post.  I call this tier, “SAGNOF!”  I just throw all these schmohawk steals guys in the same tier, because, well, frankly, interjection, they’re the same shizz.  Bourn gets you nothing but steals.  If you think that’s a smart way to build a team, I got a Lorenzo Cain, Michael Brantley or yadda³ off waivers that says you should follow the SAGNOF theorem of evolution that says these guys ain’t got no face.  Double negatives being damned, and all.  2012 Projections:  90/2/40/.280/50

40 1/8. Emilio Bonifacio – I went over Bonifacio’s projections in the top 20 shortstops for 2012 fantasy baseball.

40 1/4. Coco Crisp – Coco Crisp could be a cheap Brett Gardner.  Yes, I’m being cereal.  2012 Projections:  65/7/50/.260/35

40 what/fraction-is-this? Nyjer Morgan – Or should I say Tony Plush?  I could see a scenario where Morgan gets confused by not seeing Fielder and Braun and steals two bases in one inning for two different teams.  Sorta like a Joel Youngblood move, only crazier.  2012 Projections:  65/3/30/.270/27

40 3/4. Juan Pierre – Doesn’t have a team yet, but if he gets an everyday job then he’ll give you the usual.  If you don’t know what Juan Pierre gives you fantasy-wise, I have a copper-plated zinc portrait of Lincoln to sell you for $19.99.  2012 Projections:  85/1/40/.285/30

40 7/8. Rajai Davis – Doesn’t have a starting job right now, but didn’t last year and stole 34 bases.  Nothing like a basestealer that has a walk rate under 5%.  Rajai, you can’t steal first base, but you can throw your elbow into a pitch or two.  Keep that in mind.  2012 Projections:  40/1/20/.260/30

Asdrubal Cabrera strains his back, and, no “Asdrubal Strains Back” is not a sequel to a sci-fi porn movie.  At this time of the year, any little thing can knock people for the remainder of the year.  To help you picture what I’m saying, imagine this is April and we’re talking about Morneau.  That’s how easily players can get knocked out.  This injury comes on a day where Asdrubal hit his 24th homer.  Even if Da ‘drubal doesn’t return, he gave you everything he had this year.  Drubal took ’11 to 11.  For next year, I’m pretty sure he’s going to be a tad overrated.  He never hit more than 10 homers in any professional.  He’s been consistent with power this year from month to month, but his HR/FB% soared away above anywhere it had ever been before.  He should still be able to get around 15 homers next year, but if you get a 15/15 season, you’re suddenly wondering if a sure-to-be-underrated Jimmy Rollins isn’t a safer way to go.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Billy Butler – Missed yesterday’s game with the flu.  Someone dump a Gatorade cooler of chicken soup over Butler’s head.

Yunel Escobar – To the DL with an elbow injury.  Bobby Cox just wishes he injured it on Kelly Johnson’s face.

Brett Cecil – 3 IP, 4 ER which was followed by Kyle Drabek’s 2 IP, 6 ER as unrealized potential met yet-to-be-unrealized potential.

Doug Fister – Will be pitching in relief of Scherzer on Wednesday rather than starting as the Tigers get ready for the playoffs.  If Fister is the relief, I don’t even want to know what Scherzer translates to.

Randall Delgado – 5 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 1 K.  Freakin’ Braves with all the sexy young pitching, huh?  Freakin’ Braves.  I love them.  Beachy, Minor, Delgado, Vizcaino, all of them.  Now I know how Bill James feels when looking at Chris Davis.  Shoot that poisoned arrow through my heart, Braves pitching staff minus Jurrjens, Lowe and anyone else I’m forgetting that I don’t like!

Alex Gonzalez – 2-for-3 with his 15th homer, then left with a foot injury.  Comes a bad time because he was putting the coals in the fire, which isn’t an expression but should be.

Jason Heyward – 1-for-3 with a steal.  5 for his last 10 with a homer while batting in the 8 hole.  Maybe he just needed to be in the 8 hole to be comfortable, or maybe he’s just really too good to be batting in the 8 hole.  Hmm, wonder which one it is.

Pablo Sandoval – Hasn’t been able to bat right-handed because of a shoulder injury and might have offseason surgery to correct the issue.  Or that’s a cover for Lap-Band.

Ben Zobrist – Returns to the lineup on Wednesday after taking time off for the birth of his daughter.  No word on how many positions Mrs. Zobrist utilized for the birth, but – based on her profession – I’m guessing missionary on the conception.

Wade Davis – 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER.  Too bad he doesn’t play for the Jays, he could’ve relieved Drabek with his potentially-yet-to-be-unrealized-potential-that-might-not-be-potential-anymore potential.

Manny Ramirez – It’s being reported he’s going to play in the Dominican Winter League.  He’s hoping to meet up with Miguel Tejada down there to reminisce about the salad days of the 90s.  Maybe even start up a band, Man-Ram and the B-12 with their lead single, “Just Give Me A Shot (Of Your Sweet Sweet Estrogen Therapy).”

Adam Dunn – 2-for-6 as he doubled his season hit total.  No, wait, he doubled twice.  Sorry, honest mistake.

Dylan Axelford – 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 11 baserunners, 3 Ks.  He was coming off a decent start vs. the Tigers but you shouldn’t have went anywhere near him for this start.  Though I can understand how you could get seduced by his conglomeration of cool names.

Bud Norris – Left his start with a sore shoulder.  He’s done for the year.  Or as they say in Spanish ‘ano completo.’

Kyle Blanks – Left the game with a right quad strain.  Seventeen men helped him off the field.

Jason Kipnis – 2-for-4 with a steal in the first game, and didn’t start the 2nd game.  He should’ve though because he’s seeing the ball well.  He’s hit in every game he’s started but three since August 1st.  (Sure, he’s missed about 20 games in there, but whatevs.)

Alex Liddi – His 2nd game in a row with a homer.  In broken English, he told reporters, “I drink your pizza!  I drink it up!”

Tom Milone – 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Second start solid start for Milone.  He looks to be in the Slowey mold back before Slowey got screws put in his wrist and then put the screws to his fantasy owners.  Once upon a midnight dweawy, Slowey pondewed weak and weawy what could’ve been.  I still wouldn’t trust Milone if he gets one more start, but he’s now on the radar for deeper leagues in Twenty-Twelve.  Or as I’m gonna call it twelve past twenty.

Ross Detwiler – 7 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Phils are in serious coast mode.

Danny Espinosa – 3-for-4 with his 20th homer.  You’re probably thinking to yourself, I don’t have the profiteroles to go with the cannoli to like Espinosa again next year.  You, sir, don’t know my pastry prowess.

Erik Bedard – 2 2/3 IP, 1 ER (3 unearned).  Of course the Sawx want to get to the playoffs, but has anyone seen their last four starters?  Wakefield, Weiland, Lackey, Bedard… So, they gonna pitch Lester and Beckett on one day rest throughout the playoffs?

Clay Buchholz – Threw a simulated game.  Unfortunately, he gave up 7 runs, but the 1976 Cincinnati Reds are a tough Strat-o-Matic matchup.  Damn you, George Foster!