Fantasy Baseball Advice

With September 1st knocking on August’s door — August 31st, is that you? Uh… No.  August 30th? Nope.  August 32nd? No, you nitwit!  It’s September 1st! – it’s time we looked at September call ups.  These are potential September call ups that will, should, could and potentially make or not make a difference in fantasy baseball.  Today, we’ll look at the hitters, then on Tuesday afternoon we’ll look at pitchers.  So tip out some of your malt liquor for the pitchers who aren’t here and take a drag on that Newport, cause Razzball’s Alive With Pleasure with September call ups, the hitters.  Anyway, here’s some potential September call ups to keep your eye on for fantasy baseball:

Jason Heyward – I could shave words of praise in my merkin for Heyward, but it probably won’t do us any good.  If Heyward gets called up, he probably won’t have that large of a role in September.

Mat Gamel – He should be the every day 3rd baseman in Milwaukee in September.  At worse, he plays every day vs. righties.  He’ll be worth an immediate pickup in all leagues for a shot of adrenaline to your fantasy baseball heart.  Speaking of which, Inglourious Basterds… I was kinda bored.  Maybe it was my mood.  Not sure.  Just got sick of looking at slow push-ins.

Kila Ka’aihue – I was actually looking forward to the Hawaiia’an mash machine’s call up last November.  How’s that for prescience!

Jeff Clement – Oh, just call him up already, Pirates.  What are you waiting for?  2012?  He deserves to be up already and given a long look.

Buster Posey – Probably will see some time… In spring training.

Justin Smoak – Was broken down by Scouting the Unknown.  Smoak’s another guy I don’t think we see this year.

Chris Heisey – Should get the call up by the Reds.  Or not!  This is for the Reds to decide.  He has moderate speed and power.  Think 12/12.  In one month, think 3/3.  So, eh.  But keepers should stay alert.

Cameron Maybin – You need to put aside the differences you guys had back in April.  Maybin’s worth look in 12 team, mixed leagues if/when he gets his September call up.

Eric Young Jr. – If you need steals in NL-Only leagues, stash him immediately.  Also, Barmes may lose significant time.

Brandon Allen – Besides sounding like a furniture store, he has good power, has already been called up and has a legit shot of seeing a lot of time at first for the Diamondbacks in September.

Tyler Flowers – Sticking with the mall store names, Flowers may get called up in September, but his role will be limited like cumin in chili.

Jeff Larish – Yo, 70’s Bowie was Larish!  Wait, that’s not right.  Jeff Larish is an all power, heavy K 1st baseman.  He probably won’t see much playing time if he’s called up.  And he’s androgynous.

Krispie Young – Now there’s a hot rookie name!

Chris Davis – With the Rangers in the hunt, I doubt they give Davis the requisite at-bats he’ll need to continue his assault on the all-time strikeout record.  Though he’s capable of a huge month, so it’s worth a flier.

Brandon Wood – Yeah, Scioscia will play him.  And in other news, water is dry.

Austin Jackson – For all of youse out there with Don Mattingly pillow cases and “Jeter’s My Homeboy” t-shirts don’t do it. Put down Jackson for this year.

With the All-Star break, many of us don’t know how to kill the time at work this week. Hopefully, this week’s StU can help break some of your boredom and help you procrastinate some more.

Michael Bowden | SP | Boston Red Sox | DOB: 9/9/1986 | 6-3 | 215 lbs |Bats/Throws: Right | BOS #2 ranked prospect according to Baseball America
The Cube: Control (92) | K-rating (90) | Efficiency (98)

Many of you have patiently waited to read about this BoSox fan favorite. Matter of fact, there is so much hype surrounding Bowden that you would swear he was the second coming of Greg Maddux, or maybe even Jesus. It’s easy to blame the east coast bias for the aura that surrounds their prospects and sports teams, and well, that’s exactly what kind of blame this hype deserves.

His fastball sits between 89 and 93 mph with good movement that will top out at 95. His fastball is surprisingly effective because of his “deceptive” arm angle according to Baseball America writers. He also possesses a hard 12-6 curve, and a circle change that is hard for lefties to hit. Scouts rave about the curve, but have mentioned that at times he lets it loop more like a Zito curve. The top thing that the scouts lavish over is his impeccable control. Personally, how they talk reminds me of Brad Radke, a former Minnesota Twin who was known for his ability to eat innings and rarely walk a batter. The trouble with his style of pitching though is he’s a fly ball pitcher, and his stuff isn’t overpowering/dominating. A fly ball pitcher in the AL East, especially now with the shorter Yankee right field porch, smells like trouble. He is starting to look more like a mediocre pitcher than a top of the line pitcher like the hype indicates.

The only other knock on him is his quirky delivery, but I tend to think these quirks add to the character of the pitcher (a la – Lincecum, Roy Halladay even has a quirky delivery). Unless it places tons of strain on the elbow, which it doesn’t, and he throws lots of hard breaking pitches, I think he should be fine. Will he be a top of the rotation pitcher? I doubt it. Do I think he is a good pitcher? Sure.

Is this bashing necessary? Well, I will let you determine that:

‘06 (A, A+) 9.7 K/9 | 2.6 BB/9 | .7 HR/9 | 1112 2/3 IP | 3.75 ERA | 1.17 Whip | .377 BABIP
‘07 (A+,AA) 8.1 K/9| 2.6 BB/9 | .6 HR/9 | 142 2/3 IP | 3.34 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | .292 BABIP
‘08 (AA,AAA) 8.1 K/9 | 1.8 BB/9 | .6 HR/9 | 144 1/3 IP | 2.62 ERA | .98 WHIP| .295 BABIP
‘09 (AAA) 6.1 K/9 | 3 BB/9 | 1.1 HR/9 | 77 IP | 3.39 ERA | 1.18 WHIP | .253 BABIP
**Stats as of July 5th

Those really aren’t eye popping numbers, except for possibly last year. However, those are essentially his numbers from AA, as he only pitched 40 innings in AAA in ‘08. This year’s stats show more of the real pitcher he is, except for maybe his diminished control. The overall numbers are helped by a pitcher friendly BABIP. The reduced K/9, increase in HR/9 and BB/9 raise a red flag, or at least a flag that warrant more reserved predictions of his talent at the major league levels.

He should round out to be a better than average pitcher, but no higher than a number three starter or an above average back end of the rotation pitcher. If he was called up today, I would only want him because he pitches for a winning ball club, AKA- vulturing some wins. Other than that, I don’t want to touch him with Pesky’s (foul) pole.

Jason Heyward | OF | Atlanta Braves | DOB: 8/9/1989 | 6-4 | 220 lbs | Bats/Throws: Left | ATL #2 ranked prospect according to Baseball America
The Cube: Power (71) | Speed (62) | Contact (61) | Patience (54)

Hidden behind a talented farm system down in Atlanta, Heyward has quietly produced stellar numbers since his rookie year at A ball. Having drawn comparisons to Willie McCovey and Dave Parker, this young outfielder has all five tools that scouts drool over. He’s athletic in that large frame, actually knows how to play defense (a plus because that might help him raise through the minors faster), and has the patience of a hitter much older than him. If you want to compare his Cube numbers to professional MLB players think of James Loney, Mark Grace, and Conor Jackson (but as it has already been established, this isn’t the most accurate way to compare a player as it just compiles his numbers and rates them against his peers at the same level he is at). However, Jason should prove to be more than those players.

The Braves drafted him 14th in the 2007 draft, and some teams might have been better off drafting him instead (however, it was the ‘07 draft that had Price taken number 1 followed by Moustakas (#1 ranked in KC’s system), Josh Vitters (#1 CHC), Wieters (#1 BAL), Ross Detwiler (#2 WAS), Matthew LaPorta (#2 CLE), Mad Bum (#1 SF) , Jarrod Parker (#1 ARI), Phillip Aumont (#1 SEA) – though not in order, but those are some nice names. However, Pittsburgh took Daniel Moskos (#19) – and no, that is not a typo) ahead of Wieters and cost their GM his job). Needless to say, that was nice top of the draft for many years, and we’ll have to wait to see how they all pan out. This is not to say Heyward is a lock to be an all-star for years to come, but he does have tremendous amounts of talent and potential to be a 20 to 25 homer right fielder who hits for good average, gets on base, drives in his fair share of runs, and steals an occasional base. Here are his numbers and slash lines as of July 5th,

‘08 (A, A+) .316/.381/.473 (.854 OPS) in 471 AB (11 HR/56 RBI/6 SB)
@A – 9.8 B%/16.5K%/.160 ISO/.368 BABIP in 449AB
@A+ – 8.3/18.2/.091/.222 in 22AB
‘09 (A+, AA) .302/.379/.531 (.910 OPS) in 192 AB (10/32/1 – 12 2B)
@A+ – 10 B%/15.9 K%/ .222 ISO/ .309 BABIP 189 AB
(Side note that I just realized, in Double-A he hasn’t K’d yet as of July 11th, in 26 Abs)

Those are pretty decent numbers actually. He hasn’t hit the number of homers some other prospects have, but he hits for average and gap power as of now which should translate into more homers in the future as he shortens his swing and fills out his body. One knock that some scouts have is that he is too patient of a hitter and often times doesn’t hit or swing at the best pitch for him to drive. I am not sure how I feel about this, but really, this should be a good thing. Some hitters don’t know how not to swing. * cough * K-Davis * cough * This should be something that he and his hitting coaches should be able to change. He has the work ethic for this to probably happen, and a positive note about a highly tout prospect – he is quite humble. Something I think we all can appreciate.

Don’t expect to see him this year until September, if at all. Next spring the Braves should probably give him an extended look, but he probably will start the year in AA or possibly AAA. He will need a bit more seasoning next year, but a May/June 2010 call up could be on the way.

All of these rookies are worth grabbing at the right spot, but I wouldn’t reach for any of them.  Sorry if that sounds boring, but sometimes Grey needs to instill some right-wing fantasy baseball conservatism into the equation.  Longoria, Soto, Tulowitzki, Braun, Michael J. Fox in the first year of Family Ties, etc. panned out.  But for every time you scored with rookie nookie, there was a time when you struckout, Adam Jones, Johnny Cueto, Fukudome, Towles, Hughes, Parra, Justin Upton, Brian Bonsall, etc.  If you click on the links on the players below, you’ll see I covered all of these rookies for 2009 fantasy baseball back in November/December.   (These fantasy sleeper, rookie doodes are in no particular order.  Well… Technically, I did wrote them down in an order so they are in some order…)  Anyway, here’s some rookies for 2009 fantasy baseball:

David Price – I think he hits 150 innings and makes a huge difference for the teams who own him.  I’d pursue him like a third or fourth fantasy starter.

Matt Wieters – He’s been discussed ad nauseum since I discussed him way back in November.  I won’t have him in any league.

Cameron Maybin – I’m going to go out on a limb and say he’s a top 30 outfielder at the end of the year.  That’s a hunch more than anything.   What, I can’t have crushes?

Colby Rasmus – I like him in NL-Only leagues if he leaves spring training with a gig.

Travis Snider – Cheap source of 20 homer power.

Elvis Andrus – Liked him a whole lot more before Omar “I Will One Day Die At The Hands Of Jose Mesa” Vizquel joined the team.

Andrew McCutchen – Keep your eye on him in NL-Only keepers.  He might be a doughy bagel as soon as 2010.

Carlos Carrasco – I like him more than most, but he needs an injury to someone else to see some RT (that’s Rotation Time.  Acronyms don’t work as well when I have to explain them.)

Brett Gardner – I loved him back in November.  Now I’m a bit lukewarm.  If he can find legitimate PT, he swipes 30 bags.  Two things are going in his favor 1) Melky’s his main competition.  2)  See Number One.

Kenshin Kawakami - Two parts Kuroda, one part Hideki Irabu.

Jason Heyward – Keep Heyward in mind in NL-Only keeper leagues.  He’s my early frontrunner for NL ROY for 2010.

Chris Dickerson – Dusty Baker is talking of playing veterans.  Oh, Dusty.  You card!

Mat Gamel -  If he leaves camp with a full-time gig, he will be worth owning in mixed leagues.

Taylor Teagarden – I’d like him more if the Rangers didn’t have Saltymochachino in front of him.  Yet, I still like him.  I like Salty too.  To quote your Mom’s favorite movie title, “Something’s Gotta Give.”

James McDonald – If McDonald gets the fifth starter job in The Los Angeles City of Los Angeles (<–required by Anaheim law), he could be a great NL-Only sleeper.  James McDonald is a fantasy sleeper?! That’ll be a big seller in Google searches.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2009 Braves Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Braves Journal.

1) Jason Heyward & Tommy Hanson, what can we expect of them in 2009? Any big league action? If not, when?

No on Heyward, who hasn’t played above a-ball yet. Hanson is a possibility, though the Braves shouldn’t need him to start the season. If I had my way, every pitcher would get at least two-thirds of a season at AAA before being called up, and better yet a full season. The sooner he’s called up, the sooner things have gone wrong.

2)  You ever see The Bucket List?  It’s one of the worst films ever.  It’s not funny, or dramatic.  And Morgan Freeman’s teeth are a distracting mess.  The Bucket List reminded me of Francoeur’s 2008.  Please tell me those doubles of 2007 will finally turn to home runs in 2009.

I wish I could.  Just from observation, Francoeur’s bat has slowed down dramatically over the last two seasons.  A lot of the time last year, he would take a seemingly mighty swing and hit a 280 foot fly ball to left field.  Moreover, he has to start swinging when the ball is thrown, so he’s totally guessing on if it’s a ball or a strike. Basically, his bat is dead, or at least not at all well.

3)  You know who I’ve heard good things about for 2009? Blanco.  Do I need new sources? Is he even the starter for 2009?  Who can we expect in center?

No starter has been set yet, but Blanco has been playing well in winter ball.  Of course, he played well in winter ball before last year.  He has two problems — he completely lacks power, and he strikes out a lot.  He will take a walk, but unless he can add a lot of batting average or a lot of power, he’s trouble as a regular.  Josh Anderson is probably a better defensive player and has a little bit of power (not much), but doesn’t walk.  I think one of the two will start the year in center, but Jordan Schafer will end it there.  Or the Braves could sign the bloated corpse of Andruw Jones and see if they can reanimate him a little.  They missed him on defense last year, but not as much as the Dodgers missed him on offense.

4)  Give me the rotation and which new addition has you the most excited?

Derek Lowe, Javier Vasquez, Jair Jurrjens, Kenshin Kawakami, and probably Jorge Campillo.  Vasquez looks like the best starter to me, though Lowe will start opening day, health willing.  Vazquez is a good pitcher who since he flamed out in the Bronx has been pitching in hitters’ parks, mostly in front of bad defenses.  If the Braves’ outfield defense returns to its normal standards, he can thrive.

5)  13-year-old kids have zits longer than they have mono, yet Casey Kotchman had mono for, like, 6 months.  So in the Razzball Glossary, we call a player who is out for longer than expected as, “Pulling a Kotchman.”  We toyed with Glass Chipper for the injury-prone Chipper Jones, you got anything better?

Not really.  Something along the lines of “Chipped,” maybe?   My personal most-used neologism is a “Prado,” or “to Prado.”  This is when a player makes an egregious defensive misplay (like dropping the relay on the double play) but isn’t charged with an error.  It happens to Martin Prado a lot, both the dropped DPs (”You can’t assume the DP”) and some plays that are so bad that the scorer kind of has to call them hits.  I also used “Grybo” for inherited runs once upon a time, because Kevin Gryboski would come in, allow two runs to score to bloat someone else’s ERA, and see his drop when he finally got out of the inning.

Jason Heyward, besides having the surname of a 1930s matinee idol, has the mitts of a Yeti and the sturdies (<– that’s legs) of Frank Thomas.  His man gams are 117% oak.  You thought Jay Bruce could fight crime? Heyward just saved your life and you didn’t even know you were in danger. Look over your left shoulder — quickly!  See that shadow shrinking out of the room?  That was Heyward.  He’s now going to Ireland to sing harmony with that Once guy.  So being a globetrotting, harmonizing, crime fighting love child of a Yeti and Frank Thomas is all well-and-good, but can the the Braves outfield prospect, Jason Heyward, help you in fantasy baseball leagues in 2009?

Nope.  But… You said he was Yeti-like! Sorry, random italicized voice, it’s a bummer. I know.  So you’re probably thinking to yourself why am I even talking about him? (Yes, I can read your mind. Spooky, huh?)  Firstly, when I decided to go over 2009 fantasy rookies — Wait, you don’t need to know it from the jump, as the kids said in the early naughts. Fast forward to my reasoning… Twenty-seventhly, Heyward is going to be something special probably as soon as 2010.  This is a wake up call for all keeper leagues, NL-Only and mixed ones.  You know all that power and speed you love about The Uptons?  Heyward has that in duckets.  He’s my early 2010 NL ROY frontrunner and should be owned in all keeper leagues.  You want a prediction limb? Heyward goes 25/15 in his first full season with the Braves and he invents a Snuggie that doesn’t look quite as monk-like.