Fantasy Baseball Advice

Even if you draft one or two outfielders in the top 100 (which you should), you’ll still need to identify some late bargains.   The top 20, 40, 60 and 80 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball can be found under the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  This is by no means all the outfielders I’d draft for one of my teams.  This is a list of guys that will go late and could provide some healthy returns.  Where applicable, click on the player’s name to read more about them and to see their 2010 projections.  Anyway, here’s some outfielders to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Jay Bruce – Bruce is actually a good case study for someone who wants to see how long it takes a player to go from being a hyped rookie to actually producing.  Bruce burst on the scene in 2008, then bust on the scene in 2009 and now can actually start producing.

Nolan Reimold – If Reimold takes the Bruce route, it might not be until 2011 for Reimold.  But, like the secret Secret Recipe, Reimold has more seasoning.  (I’m a fried chicken conspiracy nut!)

Corey Hart – Hart isn’t a slam dunk by any stretch, but, if he can stay healthy, he’s a good bet for 20/20.

Dexter Fowler - I’m going to ignore that Baseball Prospectus’s most comparable player for Fowler is Paul Householder because even before the subprime mortgage crisis let Paul down, he was not a household name.  (See what I did there?  That shizz was like butterflies in your ears!)  Here’s my limb:  in 2011, Dexter’s going to be a top 20 outfielder.

Colby Rasmus – Rasmus ties together any outfield you’ve drafted like a Tony LaRussa scarf ties together a fur coat and a polyester shirt.

Travis Snider – Cheap homers late with the chance for cheap lots of homers.  And he has the same neck as this guy.

Jason Heyward – Caveats:  rookies usually crash and burn; it’s probably a year too early for Heyward.  Caveats aside, my man can hit!  Ride that donkey-donkey!

Austin Jackson – If his name were Joe Smith, no one would know who he was.  He has a shot to be the leadoff hitter and every day player.  Jordan Schafer had that shot last year for the Braves, too.  Doesn’t mean everything, but Jackson’s worth the flier.

Kyle Blanks – As long as the Padres don’t fly Southwest Airlines, Blanks should near 30 homers.

Julio Borbon – I know saying this is kinda like yelling fire in a crowded theater, but I think Borbon is Ellsbury 20 rounds later.  Zoinks!

Brett Gardner – Rudy has Gardner at 75/4/38/.266/36 in 440 ABs.  He concedes that he thinks the ABs might be bullish and the average could be worse.  The runs also seem like they’re on the high side in that projection.  But notice one stat we’re not tempering — steals.  (“No Tempering” sounds like an unreleased TLC song.)  Gardner’s a $4 player with $21 of it in stolen base value.  As in, he’d be worth -$17 in a mixed, 12 team leagues if he had no speed.

Cameron Maybin – If he can get healthy, he might get into the two hole.  That always worked for Tom Cruise.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Braves Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Braves Journal.

1) The Braves expected 1st baseman is Troy Glaus, but I think they might have signed him to make Prado look fast and to make Chipper look resilient to injury.  Do you think Glaus can make it through the season?  If so, what kind of numbers can we expect from him?

Obviously he can, but I wouldn’t expect him to avoid the IR the whole time.  I don’t think that the Braves do either, hence the signing of Eric Hinske.  I think Glaus will play about 125 games and hit 25-30 homers, and probably bat about .250 but with enough walks to get him into the .350 OBP range.

2) I’m going on two years of excitement for Jason Heyward.  Do we finally see him this year?  If so, when and what kind of predictions do you see for him?

Given the current Braves outfield, which has basically one player (Nate McLouth) who’s really a major league regular, plus one good part-timer (Diaz) and one born bench player (the Melkysaurus), it would be stunning if Heyward didn’t play at some point.  Right now, it’s 50-50 he starts the season in the majors.  It could change if the Braves sign Johnny Damon.

If Heyward plays, I wouldn’t be too optimistic, as he’s still very young.  I’d say .270/.330/.420.

3) Between the majors and minors, Tommy Hanson threw 194 innings last year after throwing 138 IP in 2008.  Does that innings bump worry you?  Can he stay healthy in 2010?

Everything worries me.  The jump isn’t quite as big as the stats indicate since he pitched in the AFL in 2008.  I think he’ll stay mostly healthy, but probably go through a dead-arm period.

4)  Tim Hudson will throw 175 innings of sub-3.50 ERA ball in 2010.  True or false and why.

If I had to guess, yes on the former, no on the latter.  I think he’ll have two or three spectacularly awful starts that will skew his ERA. He was throwing at a higher velocity last year, but with occasional wildness, and I doubt it’s all out of his system yet.

5)  With Chipper, Yunel and now Melky, the Braves have some of the best first names in baseball. McLouth, McCann and Dye-as are decent enough last names.  Derek Lowe, Billy Wagner and Tommy Hanson work when you say the whole name.  But what do we do with Jair Jurrjens?  I call him Jar-Jar, but meesa tinks that’s dated.  There’s got to be a better nickname.  Right?

I’ve never gotten a handle on his name either.  The best I can come up with is something involving Jurgens shampoo (I have a friend who calls him Jurgens).

I know most of you are champing/chomping at the bit for me to finish these facacta 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  Well, the pitchers are right around the corner.  Some of these top 80 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball are long shots to make the club, but they might give you value if they do.  Or they might just give you value when they’re called up in the summer.  As Kanye West said, I’ll show you how I cook up summer in the win-turr.  As with the other rankings, where I see tiers start and stop are mentioned with my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 80 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball:

61. Krispie Young – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here until Francoeur.  I call this tier, “The few veteran outfielders I’d take a flier on late, and even these guys leave a lot to be desired.”  If Krispie hits a third of his infield pop-ups for homers next year, he’ll hit 40.  And if I were 30 years old in 1760, I’d think Martha Washington was hot.  2010 Projections:  60/20/75/.245/15

62. Nick Swisher – Swisher reminds me of a just-post-roided Giambi.  25+ homers and a poor average.  What I sorta like about him?  I feel like he can hit 35 homers.  Hard to find that late.  2010 Projections:  80/30/90/.255

63. Delmon Young – The fact that he’s only 24 and he ended up in the veteran outfielders that are kind eh category is both the good and bad.  The good, his tools can still develop.  The bad, what’s taking so effin’ long?  2010 Projections:  55/17/75/.290/7

64. Lastings Milledge – Three short years ago Mets fans were debating if the organization should unretire number 41 in case Milledge wanted to wear it.  Now, the Pirates are debating between Milledge and Brandon Moss in the outfield.  Milledge will only be 25 in 2010 so you shouldn’t write him off… Just don’t write him in with ink.  2010 Projections:  60/12/70/.265/12

65. Jeff Francoeur – It’s only fair that you know that I placed Frenchy in the below tier of guys I don’t want at all then moved him up to this tier… Then down… Then up.  Just don’t want you to feel flimflammed on my Frenchy flip-floppery.  (<–Alliteration in lieu of wit.)  2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.275/5

66. Juan Rivera – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Willingham.  I call this tier, “Guys that you draft that you shouldn’t.”  What I mean with this tier, you’re better off just taking a flier on upside.  Willingham, Ross, Rivera, et al are guys that are always on waivers.  Maybe not them per se, but guys that do exactly the same thing.  If you don’t get Willingham in a draft, so what?  You can get ten other guys off of waivers that do the same thing.  2010 Projections:  65/24/75/.280

67. Cody Ross – Something about a player with two first names that always translates to boring.  If you’re able to draft Ross and hold him for longer than a week of the season, you have more patience than me.  His 25 homers and 5 steals and .270 average look okay on draft day, but there’s always someone who breaks out the first week of the season and Ross is the first one to go.  2010 Projections:  65/22/75/.265/5

68. David DeJesus – Someone save us from this tier.  2010 Projections:  80/12/60/.280/7

69. Jermaine Dye – Just when you thought this tier couldn’t get yawnstipating-er.  2010 Projections:  70/22/85/.260

70. Josh Willingham -  The best thing I can say about Willingham is that he’s the last name in this tier.  2010 Projections:  60/24/70/.255/3

71. Cameron Maybin – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end.  I call this tier, “These guys may not even have a starting job.  So?”  When you’re this deep into a position, you’re better off taking a flier on upside.  I’ll give you an example to explain my point.  Jason Heyward starts the season hot.  Hits 5 homers and steals 4 bases in April.  You can trade him for someone that far exceeds his value.  Juan Rivera starts the season hot.  He hits 7 homers in April.  You know who you can trade him to?  His Moms.  That’s about it.  Do I want an outfield of Heyward, Maybin and Stanton?  Maybe in 2012.  No way for this year.  re: Maybin; If you’ve been reading the site for longer than a minute — not an Urban Dictionary minute which is actually a long time — you’ll know I was crushing hard on Maybin last year.  Nothing’s changed except his shoulder’s healed and he’s a year more seasoned like that beef stew in the back of your fridge.  I’m everywhere!  2010 Projections:  85/14/50/.285/20

72. Jake Fox – His projections are over at the top 20 3rd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball.

73. Jason Heyward – Went over my Jason Heyward fantasy there.  2010 Projections:  65/12/70/.290/20

74. Desmond Jennings – Went over Desmond Jennings fantasy there.  2010 Projections:  75/7/45/.285/25

75. Austin Jackson – Jackson is supposedly going to be the starting center fielder for the Tigers.  He’s shown a lot more speed than power in the minor leagues and that shouldn’t disappear in the majors.  His .300 average in Triple-A looks like an aberration.  He’s liable to get exploited on breaking stuff.  A .250-.260 average wouldn’t surprise me.  Watching Leyland run Clete Thomas and Raburn out there in 2009 without much to show for it makes methinks Jackson will not only be the starting center fielder but he’ll probably lead off.  2010 Projections:  85/5/50/.275/22

76. Michael Taylor – Went over my Michael Taylor fantasy already.  2010 Projections:  85/12/60/.280/15

77. Kyle Blanks – Blanks, the love child of Fabulous Moolah and Kamala, the Ugandan Giant, naturally has some power in his ginourmous frame.  He should get to 25 homers easily and the average probably won’t be as bad as you might think for an all-or-nothing-type.  2010 Projections:  60/30/85/.270/3

78. Matt LaPorta – I’m real worried about the hip surgery he had in October.  He’s much younger than most guys who have this surgery — by about 50 years — but still any time you go messing with a guy’s hip I think there has to be some residual soreness or so I saw on House.  Have to watch in Spring Training to see how he’s coping.  2010 Projections:  65/17/80/.275

79. Gerardo Parra – For Parra to get near 25 steals, he’d probably get thrown out 30 times.  Cust kayin’.  2010 Projections:  75/10/60/.295/10

80. Ryan Raburn – With Fowler and CarGo, the Rockies are the fantasy sleeper outfield of 2010.  With Austin Jackson and Raburn, the Tigers want that title.  In 2006 and 2007, Raburn put up numbers in Triple-A (averaged 18 homers and 14 steals) that put him on the map.  Then, in 261 ABs last year, he had 16 homers and 5 steals.  Even though Ryan Raburn sounds like someone that should be dating Angela Lansbury, he has some upside and Leyland seems committed to giving him a chance. 2010 Projections: 65/22/75/.265/10 <–  crazy optimistic, but whatever.

After the top 80 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s really not that many guys, but here’s two to look at:

Michael Saunders – Probably won’t play unless Bradley’s hurt… Oh, wait a minute, Bradley’s always hurt.  Saunders looks like a poor man’s FraGu.  Slight power, Slight speed.  Best case scenario, 15/15.  One thought, if Saunders was a solid prospect, why wasn’t he traded to the Orioles?  2010 Projections:  55/12/65/.275/15

Seth Smith – Man, I got it bad for the Rockies outfield this year (except Hawpe. Hmm… Guess that means I only like 2 out of 3.  Nevertheless!).  If Smith can somehow corral 450 ABs, he could get to 20+ homers and 10+ steals.  It’s a longshot that is predicated on playing time. Predicated-schedicated…  Get rid of Hawpe!  2010 Projections:  60/15/75/.290/10 with plenty of upside from there, but he needs a starting job.

Javier Vazquez heads to the Yankees. This should help the Yankees contend for a division– Oh, wait. They just won the World Series. Well, this should help a rotation that struggled– Oh, wait, they have Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, Joba, Hughes and now Javier Vazquez. Vazquez has already done the Yankee thing, putting up 14-10/4.91/1.29/150. Also, that was in 2004 when Vazquez was coming off incredible years that were broadcast in French Canadian. Deja vu all over again. Right, Yogi? Only this might not feel like deja vu for Vazquez, but one of those cases where he’s mumbling to myself, “I’ve been here before, but this time the fences seem like they’re in closer and there’s a giant, industrial grade fan behind home plate.” Alas, Javy, it’s the Stadium Adjacent to the House That Ruth Built. With 99.9% of my 2010 rankings in the bag, I had placed Vazquez in the top 10 for starters. Was looking forward to drafting him as my top pitcher. Now, not so much. I’ll probably drop him out of the top 20 completely. Don’t really want anything to do with him anymore unless he drops pretty far in 2010 drafts. When Vazquez’s 2010 season is over, Suzyn Waldman may not be the only one crying. Anyway, here’s some more signings, deals and other offseason moves for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Phil Hughes/Joba Chamberlain- With the addition of Vazquez, Hughes or Joba head to the bullpen. This will be a spring training decision. Whichever guy ends up in the rotation will have value as a fifth fantasy starter. Yesterday, I flipped a coin and it said Hughes. Today, it says Joba. There’s reasons for and against both.

Melky Cabrera – Melky… Cereal, baby. Melky do what he do. Rock a most awesome first name and a threat for 15/15. As he did in New York, Melky will have to deal with a crowded outfield. Melky, doode, get traded to the Pirates. They’ll play you! Melky will probably platoon a bit with Dye-as, occasionally spell McLouth — M-C-L-O-U-T-H — and start some in right. In NL-Only leagues, Melky’s a great late flier, but you’re going need a bench hitter to slot in when he sits. If he nails an every day job out of spring, he’ll be a 5th outfielder in mixed leagues.

Jason Heyward – I already went over my Heyward fantasy, not going to rehash those potatoes. Melky doesn’t kill Heyward’s potential — no one can kill that shizz — but when you move a veteran into a crowded outfield, it usually means someone’s getting squeezed for time. I still wanna take the flier on Heyward in 2010 fantasy drafts just in case he gets the every day job. This will be a spring training call, as well.

Garrett Atkins – Over to the Orioles. Member how the O’s fans hated Melvin Mora? Yeah, me neither, but I’m assuming they did. Atkins won’t quiet that dissent. If Atkins’s bat slows any further, it’ll start to look like he’s bunting every pitch. Last preseason I wrote, “(Atkins has) gone from 29 to 25 to 21 home runs since 2006. If you were taking the SATs, the next number in that sequence would be 17.” Well, missed that SAT question as he hit 9 homers. Calling Coors home. Um, pass.

Troy Glaus – To the Braves. Glaus will play 1st base in 2010. 30 homers and a .270 average aren’t out of the realm of possibility for Glaus, but health is always the issue. Maybe him and Chipper can go halfsies on some ginkgo biloba.

Matt Capps – Looks to be headed to the Nats to close. Aside from a 2009 that looked almost as ugly as Precious’s Dad — Whoa, kinda prefer to be looking at Mo’Nique’s hairy pits. Thank you very much. That’s what I said. — Capps could be completely capable in 2010 and end up a donkeycorn. He’ll be on quite a few of my teams. After all, SAGNOF!

Octavio Dotel – Deal’s not nearly complete, but it looks like Dotel might end up as the Pirates closer. No reason why he can’t be successful in that role either.

Fernando Rodney – Signs with the Angels. This just clouds the Angels closer picture with Fuentes. Not that you need me to say it, but neither are a great option. I wouldn’t be surprised if Rodney ends up with more saves. Scioscia strikes me as a manager that would prefer to go with a righty. If I were drafting today, I’d probably get some grief since it’s Christmas Eve. I’d also draft both Rodney and Fuentes. This shituation may not be cleared up until April.

Coco Crisp – Signed with the A’s. Hey, first Melky’s traded then Coco Crisp signs. GMs are busy. That’s General Mills! Oofa! What? It’s Christmas. Cut me some slack. I’m willing to give Coco a pass on last year because he had some injuries, but he’s not even guaranteed time in Oakland. Even with an every day job, Crisp is barely a 5th outfielder.

Milton Bradley – All I’m going to say is Cubs, Rangers, Padres, A’s, Indians and Dodgers fans were all excited when they first got Milton Bradley on their team. Cut to a few months later, excitement waned. To double down on that point, the Cubs wanted to get rid of Bradley so bad, they took Carlos Silva. After the first big ‘bow Bradley drops on Dave Niehaus’s head all bets will be off. Can Bradley produce? Yeah, of course. If he wants to. That if is ginourmous. Safeco also won’t do him any favors. I’m going to ignore him in mixed leagues.

Brandon Morrow – In those aforementioned starter rankings, I showed some love for Morrow. I’m excited about his potential. His walks are pretty terrible, but his K-rate makes up for that. He also shares a health care provider with Harden. Morrow wants to start and the Blue Jays should let him. Leaving Safeco and the AL West doesn’t help Morrow’s value, but he should come as a bargain in 2010 drafts and he’s still worth the flier.

Brett Wallace – Went over Michael Taylor for fantasy in the Halladay trade. Then Stephen went over Wallace in his Blue Jays prospects post. I agree with Stephen. Wallace probably will start the year in the minors. If he starts 2010 in the majors, then I’ll be sure to put you on notice to grab him as a corner infidel.

Nick Johnson – To become a Yankee, Nick Johnson had to pass a physical. And he did! When healthy, Johnson will bat 2nd, pushing Granderson to a run-producing spot. Johnson, if healthy, can get on base and score a ton of runs, while contributing 20+ homers. A healthy Johnson could be a steal in fantasy drafts. But, as John Wayne Bobbitt might say, this Johnson hasn’t been healthy in years. BTW, this is Nick Johnson if he gets what he wants for Christmas. This is him if he doesn’t.

Excitement froth from my mouth last year when I wrote, “Jason Heyward, besides having the surname of a 1930s matinee idol, has the mitts of a Yeti and the sturdies (<– that’s legs) of Frank Thomas.  His man gams are 117% oak.  Heyward just saved your life and you didn’t even know you were in danger.  Look over your left shoulder — quickly!  See that shadow shrinking out of the room?  That was Heyward.  He’s now going to Ireland to sing harmony with that Once guy.  So being a globetrotting, harmonizing, crime fighting love child of a Yeti and Frank Thomas is all well-and-good, but can the the Braves outfield prospect, Jason Heyward, help you in fantasy baseball leagues in 2009? Nope…. He’s my early 2010 NL ROY frontrunner and should be owned in all keeper leagues.”  So, see it frotheth over for 2010.  If you build the hype, they will come… eventually. (Also, Stephen went over his A ball stats in a July Scouting the Unknown.)  So, do I still think Jason Heyward can be someone we can look at for 2010 fantasy baseball leagues?

Um, yeah.  Ain’t that what I’ve been saying?  Since that Scouting the Unknown, Heyward moved up the Braves minor league ranks.  Hitting at a .352/.446/.611 clip at Double-A in 47 games, then .364/.462/.364 in only three games at Triple-A.  Sample size be damned!  Heyward can hit with power and has speed.  He had a leg injury in the AFL, but it shouldn’t hinder him for 2010.  He’ll be a first rounder in fantasy at some point in the near future.  My guess would be 2012 (assuming the Mayans are wrong).  Barring any trades this offseason for outfield pieces, the Braves could use Heyward immediately.  Okay, I’ll rephrase.  The Braves could use a productive Heyward.  As Schafer proved last April, the Braves will give a chance to a rookie, but he must produce.  I could see Heyward staying in the minors until June or breaking camp with the team.  If Heyward comes out of the gate galloping his pony sticks and mollywhopping with his man hands, he could give you a very cheap 12/20 season.  I like him late in mixed leagues if he has a starting gig out of Spring Training.  In keepers, he’s a must have and I could see drafting him in one year NL-Only leagues even if he starts the year in the minors.  I.e. My love is still strong on Jason Heyward for 2010 fantasy baseball.