Fantasy Baseball Advice

So I got bored this week and decided to look at some deep rooted stats. I was looking for fantasy pitchers who don’t K a lot but are still very useful for fantasy purposes, and wouldn’t you know it, it relates well to a lot of options this week. These guys get overlooked by everyone. I’m here to learn you something. Not all pitchers who have over a 7 K/9 are candidates for rosterability. There are other factors that lead these low K/9 pitchers to greater success, they have peripherals that are better than the guys we roster. It seems that there is an affection toward pitchers who will get you more K’s but hurt your ERA and WHIP as opposed to getting a starter that has a low K-rate and helps with ERA and WHIP. All the starters I list every week are based off the roster status on multiple fantasy services and I usually use less than 50% ownership (with some variances here and there). So with that, I am telling you not to forget about the guys who get it done but go unnoticed because they aren’t Brandon Morrow. They still help just as much as the “productive” players or guys we think are more productive than they actually are. I ask you this:  Would you rather have an ERA of 2.50 with 6 K’s in two starts or an ERA of 4.50 and 12 K’s in two starts?  I understand that guys contribute to both exist, but are already owned and usually the top 30-40 pitchers overall. I’m merely talking about cusp of the roster guys. Enjoy the week to come. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

6/28
Clayton Richard vs. KC – Paulino

6/29
Carlos Carrasco @ Bal – Arrieta
Paul Maholm @ Tor – Morrow
Tim Stauffer vs. KC – Chen

6/30
Jeff Karstens @ Tor- Villanueva
Mike Pelfrey @ Det – Verlander

7/1
Juan Nicasio vs. KC – Davies
Tim Wakefield @ HOU – Norris
Bronson Arroyo vs. Cle – Masterson

Kevin Correia (@Tor vs. Reyes, @Was vs. Marquis) Should be a line painter he is so good on the road. Home/away splits are hard to ignore. Go look. See told ya. Lack of K’s make him kind of boring. I have to go dust off my Omar Moreno jersey as I told myself I would never wear it until they reach .500 in July.

John Lannan (@Ana vs. Santana, Pit vs. McDonald) ERA at 1.15 over the last 6 starts. Jump on board and ride the hot hand. Low K guys are the Monty Capuletti of fantasy. The Nats are on a pretty decent roll right now.

R.A. Dickey (@Det vs. Porcello, NYY vs. Garcia) Deserves better. Only one win to show for his 2.35 ERA over the last month. Odd stat o’ the day, Metco is a pitchers haven but his ERA is lower on the road by a run.

Jason Hammel (CHW vs. Floyd, KC vs. Francis) Pitching in Colorado stinks. It’s pretty cut and dry, ERA’s get bloated, WHIP’s get taken to the shed. Pitches just bad enough that his offense can’t help him. Last resort for deep leagues this week.

Jason Marquis (@Ana vs. Pineiro, Pit vs. Correia) Has pitched surprisingly awesome and fits the bill for the above mentioned low K guys. Gets hit around a little but pitches to contact so what do you expect? Home ERA in the mid 2’s.

Jordan Lyles (Tex vs. Wilson, Bos vs. Miller) Two tough matchups, both lineups can hit. Pitched okay last week against the Rangers. The Astros pitchers are horrible to chase wins with. K/BB rate of 4/1. Lefties only hitting .208 against.

Nick Blackburn (LAD vs. Billingsley, Mil vs. Greinke) Yet another low K guy, I can’t make this stuff up. June ERA is 2.04.  Wait, it gets better for the unappreciated, home ERA for the year is 2.40. Matchup names are scary, but anyone seen Minnesota play lately. No, go ask Buster Poindexter then.

Ryan Vogelsong (@CHC vs. Davis, @Det vs. Scherzer) You see that thing in the horizon, yeah that’s the ship that sailed. I pimped and pimped for as long as I could but he finally graduated to usefulness. Who is the next american pitcher to come back from Japan? I did the research for ya, it’s Bryan Bullington.

Andrew Miller (@Phi vs. Lee, @Hou vs. Lyles) Watched his first start, he pitched okay, and it was against the Friars. K potential is nice, being a tether ball isn’t. I asked Jerry Remy after the game what he thought, his quote “Not now, kid.” Dynamite stuff, Remdog.

Brandon Beachy (@Sea vs. Bedard, Bal vs. Britton) Prolly the most added guy in any league or format for the next week. The 11 K outing makes everyone think “I want some of that goodness.” Only bad thing I can see is he may give up some taters… Mmmm taters.

Anyone who’s read this site for a minute — an urbandictionary minute, which is actually a long time — knows I have love for Adam Lind.  In an age when the home run is scarce — wow, that sounded like a Ken Burns voiceover — Lind has big time power.  I’m a fan.  Have the pin that reads, “Lind-a-want-stats!”  Sorry, that’s a square pun in a round hole.  Yesterday, he went 4-for-4, 2 homers in his 2nd game back from the DL.  He can still get 30 homers and hits in the heart of a solid order.  I wouldn’t be scared of him, he might just do his best not-this-season Dunn impression.  BTW, Bautista hasn’t hit a homer in 7 games, what a loser!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Shin-Soo Choo – Says DUI is affecting play.  Assuming he doesn’t have to drive relievers in from the bullpen, I say just start drinking before games again.

Jake Peavy – 4 IP, 6 ER.  CBS reported Peavy left start with (groin).  Frankly, I’d be worried if he left a game without (groin).

Alexi Casilla – 7 for his last 11 with three steals.  The window of usability  for Casilla will probably be shorter than Intellivision’s but he’s hot and stealing bases.

Albert Pujols – Clubbed second straight walk off home run.  I know that because it was the big story on Baseball Tonight with, like, seventeen exclamation marks.  Pujols!  Rawr!  He’s back!  Did he go anywhere?  Also, since I usually just watch the games, this was the first time I saw Baseball Tonight in a few years.  I was surprised to find out Doug Glanville has a job.  You think ESPN is like, “Hey, we need a color man– I mean a color commenter–  I mean a commenter– Let’s just hire someone before we get sued.”  Also, Jayson and Laynce Nix’s sister’s got a job.  Her name is Wendi Nix and she has about as much personality as a ill-formed origami crane.  Zach Braddock didn’t have a sleeping disorder, he was just watching too much Wendi Nix.

Lance Berkman – Sat out yesterday after getting a cortisone injection in his wrist.  No more eczema for him.

Ryan Vogelsong – 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks.  There’s no rhyme or reason why he should be pitching this well but like Collmenter before him, you should just ride the tiny ship in the bottle or whatever that cliché is.

Jason Hammel – 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 4 Ks.  He’s whatever, but this is about my trip up to San Fran this weekend.  I took in a game at Long Distance Carrier Park.  The Giants offense is pathetic.  Without Posey, Belt (out at least a month) and Sandoval, they don’t have one hitter to worry about.  They batted the Latin 37 Tejada, who’s hitting .218 with 1 home run on the year, second.  I’d throw just about any pitcher at them.  On a side note, Giants made such a big deal about Bonds and the record and sticking their heads in the sand when he was selling out their stadium.  Yet, I didn’t see one picture or mention of him anywhere inside the park.  It was like he was Keyser Söze.

Mark Reynolds – Back to back games with a homer.  All brays to Mini Donkey! (But he only has two hits in the last five games.  He’s looking less donkey and more Rob Deer.)

Chris Narveson – 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, which comes after starts of 4 IP, 5 ER and 3 1/3 IP, 6 ER.  Yeah, he’s completely unownable right now.  Pretty K-rate or not.

Brandon Inge – Out with mono.  Bronson Arroyo just had mono.  Cust kayin’.

Anibal Sanchez – 5 IP, 5 ER, 9 baserunners, 5 Ks.  I don’t think this means he’s done being relevant; he just wasn’t a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher to begin with.  This start did make me happy though, since I foolishly dropped him the first week of the season, and really this is all about me.

Hanley Ramirez – First, he mucks up your team for two months with poor play then he fails to go on the DL for a week.  Hanley doesn’t care about you.

Travis Wood – 4 2/3 IP, 8 ER, 13 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Like a satisfied beaver, I’m done with Wood for now.  Beaver, the animal.  Geez.  It’s with regret it had to come to this, because I do think he has great stuff, but you have to look elsewhere.  Just way too unpredictable.

Drew Stubbs – 2-for-5 with a slam & legs.  Maybe Stubbs was tending to his BBQ empire for the last few weeks, but it’s nice to have him back.

Drew Storen – 1/3 IP, 3 ER yesterday and 8 earned runs in his last 6 appearances.  Riggleman took forever to name Storen the closer but won’t take as long to remove him.  Sean Burnett would be the handcuff.

Mark Teixeira – 3-for-4, 3 RBIs with his 17th and 18th home runs.  If PABST (Post-All-Star Break’s Stats Teixeira) stays bubbling in the 2nd half as is his wont, he’s heading for an MVP year.

Matt Kemp – 2-for-3 and his 3rd home run and 8th RBI in the last two days.  His career is bouncing back a lot better than Chris Brown in the wake of a Rihanna breakup.

Vicente Padilla – Was due back but neck pain has kept him on the DL.  Who’s the Dodgers closer?  Flip a coin.

Rafael Furcal – To the DL with a strained oblique.  Vague!  I’d drop Furcal unless you have “Days on the DL” as a category in your league.

C.J. Wilson – 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks.  To be honest, I have a blind spot, middle relievers that become starters.  At this point, if they convert LaTroy Hawkins to a starter, I’m gonna throw my hands in the air and say he’ll be great.

Mitch Moreland – 2-for-4 with his 8th home run as he bats .313 on the year.   I’d love to push him more, but he’s a platoon guy at this point.  He either doesn’t play vs. lefties or doesn’t hit them, which hurts his counting stats (on pace for around 60 RBIs on the year).

Jonathan Papelbon – Daniel Bard got the save yesterday after Papelbon lost his shizz on Saturday with a three run third of an inning and bumped the umpire.  Now Papelbon might get punished by the league.  I’d fine any goofy white guy for chest bumping too.

Joakim Soria – A clean outing or two away from reclaiming the closer job.  Makes sense in a non-sarcastic way.

Jordan Lyles – 4 IP, 4 ER, 6 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Sure be easier to say I don’t like him if he were to give up like 12 baserunners or something.  Well, due to the inexperience and the Astros behind him, you have to be careful starting him in any mixed leagues right now.

Mark Trumbo – Hit his 11th home run and stole his 6th base.  How does he have only 2 less steals than Bourjos?  Not rhetorical!

Carlos Beltran – Left the game after fouling a ball off his ankle.  He’ll probably miss two months.  I’m only half joking.

Miguel Olivo – It’s with much regret I inform you that Olivo now has three homers in three straight games.  I don’t have anything against Olivo per se, but I know as soon as I write Olivo hits them in bunches like he’s dating the Chiquita Banana lady people are gonna come out of the woodwork in the comments asking if they should lose their catcher for Olivo.

Evan Longoria – Rested on Sunday and will return Monday.  Sounds like someone has a God complex.

Week 6 is here, subtle rejoice. Some top minor league guys are getting the call, the closer situations on some teams are still an enigma wrapped in a TLR sandwich and some elite pitching has returned. Now is the time to start gambling on guys that have either underperformed or you have a hunch about. Hunches win fantasy leagues. After all, this is just like playing the lottery, although I have never seen the lotto girl pull an oblique calling the winning numbers. So good luck on all of this week’s endeavors.  Here are the pitching options for the week to come. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and match-ups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS

5/10
Homer Bailey @Hou – Myers
Rick Porcello @Min – Blackburn
Joel Pineiro vs. CHW – Peavy

5/11
Scott Baker vs. Det – Coke
Brandon Beachy vs. Was – Lannan

5/12
Jon Garland @ Pit – Morton
Ivan Nova vs. KC – O’Sullivan

5/13
Gavin Floyd vs. Oak – McCarthy
Wade Davis vs. Bal – Guthrie

Travis Wood (@Hou vs. A. Rodriguez, StL vs. Carpenter) Shows glimpses, then gets pummeled. Gets two starts unless Dusty out smarts us all and uses 6 starters. God forbid he gets out-crazyed by Ozzie.

Jason Marquis (@Atl vs. Hanson, Fla vs. Vazquez) Last start showed the worst case scenario. Is he as good as his first 5 starts? Hell to the no. When healthy he is an innings eater and those, from what I hear, are delicious.

Josh Tomlin (TB vs. Niemann, Sea vs. Pineda) I will lay it out for you nice and simple, he is 3-0 at home. I still think it’s a magic show getting it done. Pitching a run and a half better than his xFIP.

Kevin Correia (LA vs. Lilly, @Mil vs. Greinke) Anyone else notice that the Buccos are pushing .500? 17 wins all of last year on the road, 11 already this year, Oh, and guess what, Correia is 5-0 on the road.

Jake Arrieta (Sea vs. Pineda, @ TB vs. Price) ERA 1.50 lower on the road and lefties are hitting a robust .187, “It’s murda.” No, it isn’t. It is batting average against, but thanks for stopping by JA.

Vance Worley/Joe Blanton (@Fla vs. Vazquez, @Atl vs. Hanson) Mr. Blanton, that is the entrance; you are required to use the exit. Nothing from Worley’s minor league numbers say he should be this awesome. Maybe the four aces are rubbing off on him. Blanton is scheduled to throw a bullpen on Saturday so either starter may get the nod or each may get one, sharing is caring I guess.

Chris Capuano (@Col vs. Chacin, @Hou vs. A. Rodriguez) Watched entire start against SF, a better hitting team would have made it ugly. Seems very predictable. Decent lone star start, in the mountains not so much. Is a left handed Whippopotamus.

Freddy Garcia (KC vs. Davies, Bos vs. Beckett) Played Joe the policeman, on the “What’s goin’ down” episode of That’s My Mama. NY lineup gives anyone a little glimmer, hangs in the same “bloat” as Capuano.

Ted Lilly (@Pit vs. Correia, Ari vs. Collmenter) Lots of talk about him, being added/dropped. He is a 12 win 4 ERA 1.3 WHIP pitcher. To me that spells a perfect number 5 starter in any fantasy league. Ted Lilly rant over, return to your regular scheduled programming.

Jason Hammel (NYM vs. Pelfrey, SD vs. Latos) My secret inside voice tells me he is the best pitcher on the Rox right now, than Chacin’s inside voice texts mine and tells it like it really is. ERA is higher at home, lefties hitting around a deuce.

Holy hell was week 1 long… though it’s always good when your ace goes three times in the first week. Hopefully, everyone has remained calm and not added Alex Avila and Willie Bloomquist to anchor anything not named a boat. It’s way too early to get all ‘Jerry McGuire’ and say, “The fish are coming with me.” This fantasy is a relationship — not a one night stand! Assuming that you drafted well and injuries or appendices don’t get in your way, your team should be built to last. To me, there is nothing sweeter than streaming. It makes your opponent think two things, “Hey, this guy is paying attention” and, “Damn, this guy wants to not only beat me but destroy me.” That is what it’s all about folks. Treat every week like you do the last week of the season and I guarantee those last few weeks will actually mean something. So here are your week 2, less owned, two start fantasy baseball hurlers. Good luck. (Pitchers and match ups may change so please be aware)

Kyle McClellan (@Ari-Enright, @LAD Kershaw) – Duncan is the Rumpelstiltskin of pitching. For now, I’m sold and will be until he hits that wall at 120 innings or so.

Joe Blanton (@Was- Lannan, Fla-Volstad) – Mentally it must suck to be known as the other guy.  No respect? No worries!  Thornton Melon’s got your back… Just stop giving up 7 run leads.

Michael Pineda (Tor-Romero, @KC Francis) – Good stuff, bad offense. Any start for a Seattle pitcher will be a crap shoot for a Win. They just don’t have the ‘O’ to go anywhere but last place.

Jason Hammel (@NYM-Pelfrey, CHC-Coleman) – Colorado’s offense versus a chronic hand licker and a guy who sounds like an female Irish bar keep? Yeah, it depends on the bar.

Brian Duensing (KC-Francis, @TB-Price) – Still SP/RP sexy. Rays are scuffling and Price isn’t as good as some ‘perts are sayin’. None here, of course.

Alexei Ogando (@Det-Verlander, @NYY-Burnett) – Rough match up week for the kid. Wait is 27 years old still a kid? Anyhoo, career high in innings is 41, which includes the minors.

Jesse Litsch (@Sea-Hernandez, @Bos-Matsuzaka) – Tough week for the road warrior pick. I went over Seattle above in a nut shell. Boston is the kid who falls asleep drunk and everyone draws on his face. Until he wakes up and kicks everyone’s ass.

Esmil Rogers (@ NYM- Niese, CHC- Dempster) – Gangly is the best word for him. Looks like an 8 foot octopus wearing a baseball hat. Deceptive delivery, plus lack of video equals fantasy gold until they figure him out.

Kevin Correia (Mil-Marcum, @Cin-Volquez) – Olympics, Kim Jong-il land the pitcher.  The three things we know about Korea.  Somewhere, James Taiwan is yearning for attention. Hard to be the ace of a bad team, usually a match up disaster.

Jeff Francis (@Min-Duensing, Sea -Pineda) – Rule of 2’s for shoulder surgery guys.  Hop on the KC bandwagon now… it’ll prolly run out of gas by June.

Well my friends, or enemies, it has come to be again:  Baseball… sorry… fantasy baseball! Is there anything more addictive than fantasy baseball? Twenty plus weeks of stats and trades, adds and drops. Preseason stuff is all well and good… but we want competition amongst our so-called friends.  Week one started early and for those in weekly leagues that can’t use any of this: I’m sorry.  For those who can, start off by asking yourself, “Will this help me?” and “Do I really need to add any of these players?” The answer to both of those questions is subjective: It all depends on league size, team need, and scoring setup.  So use the advice I give with fair warning and don’t just do it ‘cause I made a suggestion because this is only a guide of who pitches twice.  I can only show you the way, but you must walk it. I believe it was Q-Tip who said it best when he said, “If knowledge is the key than just show me the lock.” Well, I’m giving you directions to the lock store.  So, as I embark on my second decade of fantasy baseball (Damn, I’m getting old.  I remember doing this with a pen, a piece of paper and a newspaper.  They don’t even make those things anymore!), here are your week 1 two start starters for fantasy baseball. (Pitching match ups and games may change so keep that in mind.) Good luck!

Dallas Braden (@Tor-Reyes, @Min-Duensing) – Grandma’s ‘lil quilter. My inside voice is telling me he is going to get hurt this year.  My outside voice told me to shut up and get me a beer.  Very lucky last year.  Match up guy most of the year for me. Not too bad to start off the year though.

Erik Bedard (@Tex -Ogando, Cle- Masterson) – Healthy, well currently yes. May need to join Tod Lubitch to stay that way though.

Brian Duensing (@NYY-Garcia, Oak-Braden) – Vanilla is the best way to describe him. You add a good lineup, decent defense behind him, and a splash of dual eligibility and that’s baby making stuff.

Bud Norris (@Cin-Leake, Fla- Sanchez) – Ahh Bud, why do you hurt me? Your K numbers look like a down blouse shot of Brooklyn Decker, and your WHIP makes her look like Bea Arthur. Will be a drop and add guy most of the year.

Chris Young (@Phi-Hamels. Was-Lannan) – Can he be healthy for longer than an episode of Robot Chicken? Spring numbers look great, but so what? He is healthy now, so use him while he is, ‘cause you can’t when he isn’t, duh.

Aaron Harang (SF-Bumgarner, LAD-Redding) – Harangatang in the SD zoo… awesome!  2 starts at the Pet’, yes and thanks.

Jason Hammel (LA-Kershaw, @Pit-McDonald) – Could be sneaky this year. Pitched way better and without the luck. Check the numbers, I’ll wait.  How can you not like a guy with a name so close to a tchotchke?

Mike Leake (Hou-Norris, @Ari-Enright) – He got tired by June 1st last year. 2 great starts vs. what looks on paper to be bad teams.  Good start could lead to better things…

Jo-Jo Reyes (Oak-Braden, @Ana-Kazmir) – The least owned name on this week’s list. Play anyone vs. Kazmir, he is hot garbage. Run support, check.  Named after a clown, check.  That, right there, is like the fantasy daily double!

James McDonald (@STL-McClellan, Col-Hammel) – Can he be the first fantasy relevant starting pitcher in Pittsburgh since Ollie Perez in ’04? Possibly. This is an upstart team with a baseball savvy manager. Double digit wins and 170 k’s are not out of the question. Or that’s what I said right before I threw a penny into the fountain.

Jason Marquis (@Fla-Sanchez, @Nym-Capuano) – Doing “Hawk and Animal” proud this week. Missed half of last year due to injury… Yeah, no one noticed. Pitched OK to end last year, don’t expect much on the year but 2 decent match-ups help for the first week of streaming season.