Fantasy Baseball Advice

A right to the jaw, Gallardo goes down. Left to the jaw, Rich Hill sucks. Go to throw in the towel and Guthrie grabs your hand. Uppercut to the chin, Harang sucks. Aaron Cook takes a few body blows and rights the ship. Body blow and Franceour hits the canvas. You prepare to throw in the towel, but Hamilton grabs your hand and you’re feeling a second wind, then, out of nowhere, right, left, right — you’re toothless. Damn, these fantasy baseball injuries are ruthless. You’re stammering, “Momma?” as you hobble around the ring. You see three of your opponent because your eye needs to be cut and then Kinsler hits the DL. Like Saddam’s gold-ish statue, you topple to the ground. Kinsler may be out for the season. I have nothing else to say, but this totally sucky-suck-sucks. Some guys I’m looking at grabbing, Wigginton, Kent, Cesar Izturis, Sanchez or Polanco. I say “or,” because God help you if you need more than one of those. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ryan Braun - Ugh, Part II. He left the game after swinging and missing. I’m pretty sure he’s headed to the DL. I wish he would’ve just sat out the last two games so he wouldn’t now need another 15 games, but when it hurts to swing, it’s not a good sign.

Justin Duchscherer - And the hits keep coming. He reinjured the same hip that shut him down last season. He’s thrown nearly as many innings this year as he’s thrown in the last three years combined. You guys had a good run. When Dook-sher goes in for the MRI and CornNuts, leave him by the side of the road.

Greg Maddux - Looks like he’s being traded to the Dodgers. This is the one place where Maddux may have slightly more value than Petco. Dodgers Stadium is also a pitcher’s park, it’s in the same crap division (now he can face the Padres!) and the Dodgers score a few more runs. That is a win, win, win! Though, he’s still a questionable starter depending on matchups.

Barry Zito - 7 scoreless innings against the Braves. After the game, Bobby Cox said, “I’d give back ‘95 if someone could make this end.”

Jorge Campillo - 6 2/3 innings, 5 ER. As I mentioned last week, I quit Campillo in all of my leagues. There’s an addendum to that, I picked up Campillo for my Razzball team, so now Campillo’s job is to become the worst pitcher ever.

Matt LaPorta - Was hit on the head during the Olympics and taken to the hospital where Michael Phelps performed open head surgery and now LaPorta will be fine. Phelps also made a the most delicious Dum-Dum Lollipop for LaPorta to suck on while he heals. The ingredients were two parts corn syrup, one part lepruchuan.

Evan Longoria - Rays are still saying September 1st is Longoria’s return date. On a real baseball note, the Rays seem like they’re having one of those special seasons where it doesn’t matter who gets hurt. They could fill Willy Aybar in for their 1 thru 9 hitters and it wouldn’t matter.

Al Reyes - Declined his minor league assignment and is now a free agent. Here’s some obvious speculation, Al Reyes’s new home will be with the New York Mets.

Troy Percival - Supposedly Percival will be able to return without surgery. He’s still due to miss 2-4 weeks, which in old man weeks is 4 weeks. I still like Wheeler to be the Rays closer.

John Maine - 5 scoreless innings only to have the bullpen give it away. He walked four through five innings. Against a better offense, this line may not look as good.

Jason Bay - 2 HRs and a steal. Manny who? The guy who hits a home run every game for the Dodgers. Oh, right!

Adam LaRoche - HR yesterday. 6-for-20 since returning, which for him is hot.

B.J. Upton - After being reprimanded two times prior for lack of hustle, he jogged to 2nd yesterday and was tagged out. Well, everyone knows you shouldn’t rush a B.J.

I listened to Lisa Loeb’s “Stay” while considering the relevance of the Manny trade, then I thought, “Why on earth am I listening to Lisa Loeb?” Rather than viewing this trade like it’s the end of an era, Red Sox fans seem to be viewing this trade like it’s the end of an error. Sure, Manny was a handful, but he gave you a lot more than 500+ career home runs and career average over .310. He gave you something sorely missing in today’s game — flavor. The irony is the Sox got back a player who makes white bread seem like a bold choice for a sandwich. Am I the only one who sees the Red Sox and thinks, “Ellsbury, JD Drew, Bay, Youuuuuuk, Lowell, Beckett, Varitek… Did Jerry Remy suddenly become the only one besides Big Papi with any character?” It’s bad enough everywhere you turn it’s Subway, McDonald’s, Starbucks, Supercuts, Kinko’s, rinse and repeat. Now all our sports stars must be deviod of personality, too. What were you thinking as the seconds ticked down and it was official that you were the champions? First, I want to thank God. Without him, none of this is possible. Next, I wanna point out what a great job Coach did. He took us from last to first in three years. Next, I gotta point out what a great job all of my teammates did. They made me better. Finally, it’s thanks to these fans! You’re the best in the world! If that’s not bucking fullshit, I’ve never heard it. So when the Sox fans say good riddance to Manny, I say they’re all brainwashed by corporate America (and I lower cased corporate on purpose. As it should be.).

Since this is a fantasy baseball blog, first and foremost, I’ll go over the value changes for the Manny trade. Manny might get a slight hit on his value because he’ll no longer have The Green Mawnster to knock balls off of, but Manny’s a hitting savant and I expect him to make the proper adjustments. Also, this trade could be the kind of motivation Manny hasn’t had in almost four years. This does hurt a few other peripheral pieces in SoCal. Let’s do a basic math problem. If the Dodgers play 6 games a week and they have three outfielders, that means they have 18 possible outfield games. Now those 18 games need to be split between 5 outfielders (Ethier, Jones, Kemp, Pierre and Ramirez). So Manny and Kemp get 5 each, which means 10 outfield games. Now you have 8 outfield games to split up. I say Pierre and Jones get between 3 and 4, which relegates Ethier to 1 to 2 games per week. Drop Ethier. His (minimal) value has been zapped.

For Bay, let’s recollect what we saw last year while he battled through the worst slump of his career. Ground ball to short, ground ball to 2nd, ground ball to short and Bay falls into a mental slump where he’s fooled so bad he swings at some pitches while the ball is still in the pitcher’s hand. Bay will have a better lineup around him, he’ll have the The Green Monster to hit doubles off of and he’ll have the 2nd biggest media town breathing down his neck compared to Pittsburgh, which sports a town that forgot they had the Pirates for parts of ‘07 into ‘08. I hope Bay fails, but I’d say there’s only a 50/50 slot of it legitimately happening.

Now the two schmohawks that emerge from this trade with their value slightly knocked up (Hey, “slightly knocked up” sounds like that girl I went to high school with whose name I can’t remember) are Brandon Moss and Andy LaRoche. First, Laroche gets reunited with a guy who has the same parents. (BTW, Elias Sports Bureau said this is the first time two brothers with a capped letter in the middle of their last name will play together. Actually, Elias Sports Bureau didn’t say that, but it sounds like some nonsense they would say. Some things they have said recently around Elias Sports Bureau’s headquarters, “There’s no M & M’s in the snack machine for the first time since 1999,” “Leandro mowed our lawn on Tuesday for the first time since March,” and “Jimmy, in Accounting, has the worst halitosis of any Elias Sports Bureau employee ever.” But I digress.) So LaRoche only has to beat out Jose Bautista for playing time. Well, color me not worried. LaRoche hasn’t shown many signs in the majors, but he’s a top-level prospect that you should pick up in deep leagues.

Brandon Moss, the new Pirates outfielder, strikes me as the guy in a trade that no one cares about then ends up having lots of value. Or this could be complete hyperbole. Moss flashed some speed and power in the minors and never at the expense of his average. Now he’s not going to be an in-his-prime Bobby Abreu, but he profiles similarly to Andre Ethier. I know, yawn. But unlike Ethier, Moss may get his at-bats and in NL-only play that can help. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Psyche! Before we get into today’s roundup, I just wanted to post Manny being Manny, make sure to watch until the 1:30 mark when Manny reenacts the play. If you don’t get a kick out of it, you’re dead on the inside.

The Rays - I knew they were stingy with their prospects, but I thought they would at least upgrade their bullpen. Nope.

Fausto Carmona - Bounced back from that razztastic start last time out against the Twins to throw 6 and 1/3 innings and to only give up 2 earned. Liked him a lot coming back from the DL and I think he can give you some quality starts moving forward.

Juan Rivera - HR yesterday. I’m pretty sure I’ve already said I’m never talking about him again. So this is your last heads up.

Jim Edmonds - 2 HRs. I almost yawned between writing the 2 and the HRs.

Rich Harden - 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks. He’s given up three runs as a Cub and has K’d 39 in four starts. Well, la-di-da. This was still only his first win for the Cubs. So there.

Dave Bush - 7.1 IP, 6 ER. That whole ‘only starting Bush at home’ thing has worked out remarkably well. Almost as well as the whole ’starting Craig Counsell over Russell Branyan’ thing, but not nearly as well as batting Braun fifth. Not sure why Yost wants to get fired, but he’s obviously managing like he does.

Frank Thomas - Was activated from the DL. If you need home runs, I’d take a flier, but don’t drop anyone too valuable because The Big Hurt is aptly named.

Jim Thome - HR yesterday. As I said yesterday when Griffey was traded, Thome’s going to get his at-bats.

Shane Victorino - I was talking to Rudy about how some people bench Victorino or use him as a throw-in in trades and Rudy said an interesting thing to me, “Is Victorino really that different than Carl Crawford?” Things to make you say, “Hmm…”

Chone Figgins - Went 4-for-5 yesterday and almost .400 in the last seven games. As I told someone yesterday, Figgins can get hot and steal a ton of bases in a month or two. Steals is one category you can make up ground real fast. Saves is another.

Ryan Zimmerman - Left yesterday’s game with a hand injury. This could be a great thing for his owners, you might no longer have to delude yourself into thinking he’s valuable.

Khalil Greene - Reports claim Greene decided to place himself on the Disgraceful List when he punched a storage chest and fractured his hand. However, witnesses say the storage chest was starting Greene at SS all season and by all accounts the storage chest actually threw itself at Greene’s hand. Either way, Greene should be dropped in all leagues, even ten team leagues that only use Padres players. (BTW, in a ten team league that only uses Padres players, I think you have to draft Adrian Gonzalez first. Peavy’s great, but you can get pitching late.)

Todd Jones - Speaking of the Disgraceful List, Todd Jones hits the DL. Reason given by the Tigers for this move, “Well… Dur.”

2008 Fantasy Baseball is similar to every of year of fantasy baseball in its dissimilarity of the similar. Hey, I sound like Dr. Suess after three Coladas. (BTW, I’m not implying Dr. Seuss was a drunk. He seemed like a peyote man to me.) To paraphrase Sinatra, “Fantasy baseball surprises… Yeah, we’ve had a few.” Since it’s almost halfway through the 2008 season, here’s a look at the top twenty fantasy baseball surprises according to me. Who am I? The CEP (Chief Executive ‘Pert) for the number one fantasy baseball blog. That’s who. (Or whom. I can’t ever figure out the difference. I never said we were the number one Who/Whom blog. But if we were, Who would write for it. Or Whom. Or would they have one blog author that was Who and the dissenting opinion would be Whom?) Anyway, here’s 2008’s biggest fantasy baseball surprises:

20. Justin Duchscherer - Why isn’t Scot Shields starting for the Angels? Can’t Broxton go six? Damaso Marte has to be better than all of the Pirates starters, right?

19. Ryan Dempster - At least Dook-sheer was good as a reliever. Seriously, my head is spinning from Dempster’s season thus far. My head isn’t meant to spin!

18. Xavier Nady - Two days after the season started, I said pick him up cause you never know how long guys will stay hot. You are only lying to yourself if you listened to me. I didn’t even listen to me.

17. Cristian Guzman - What gets him on this list? Being less awful than is expected. Tallest midget on the list. (I didn’t use the term “little person” because “little person” groups midgets and dwarfs together. This seems to be selling both groups short. Pun obviously intended. Don’t make me point out the obvious!)

16. Nate McLouth - ADP 194. Yeah, that’s McValue.

15. Jason Bay - Maybe this is only a surprise to me, but I thought he was toast. (Here’s someone who never stopped believing.)

14. Jorge Cantu - More valuable than Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Justin Morneau, Aramis Ramirez, Garret Atkins, Carlos Guillen and the guy he replaced, Miguel Cabrera. Seriously, you could’ve drafted Cantu in the first round and it would’ve worked out for you. Now you figure out this game of fantasy baseball.

13. Jacoby Ellsbury - 34 steals; 36 steals for all Red Sox not named Jacoby.

12. Victor Martinez - Kelly Shoppach would’ve gave you more value. (For those unfamiliar with that name, it is not the name of Zach’s girlfriend in Saved By The Bell, but I don’t fault you for thinking so.)

11. Ervin Santana - Johan, Carlos and Tito move over; there’s a new Santana in town.

10. Miguel Cabrera - Joe Crede outperforming Miggy. Maybe Miggy should’ve stayed fat.

9. Rafael Furcal - He’s pulling a Kotchman and that’s just wrong.

8. Kerry Wood - Still healthy as he vies for Comeback Player of the Year honors. (BTW, recent winners of Comeback Player of the Year are Carlos Pena, Dmitri Young, Nomar, Thome, Konerko and Javy Lopez, so if Kerry makes it to October healthy, I still won’t be excited about him in ‘09.)

7. Troy Tulowitzki - When the injury came, half of me (the Lily Tomlin half) was actually happy I could pull him from my lineup.

6. J.J. Putz - Has made Mariners fan miss Miguel Batista, the closer.

5. Milton Bradley - In the beginning of the year, Milton Bradley would have punched you in your stupid face if you told him he was going to be in contention for a Triple Crown. Why? Because.

4. Carlos Quentin - CQ has performed much better than the crappy Coppola movie of the same name. (Speaking of which, at what point do The Godfather/Apocalypse Now favors end? The Coppola surname has wasted at least 300 hours of my life. And I’m subtracting the two hours for the wine tasting at his vineyard. My buzz was the least he could’ve done.)

3. Cliff Lee - The Mets hiring Zsa Zsa Gabor to replace Willie Randolph would be less surprising than his first 13 games started.

2. Edinson Volquez - I begged with you all to draft him before the year began. (BTW, in the same piece I point out how Karabell was wrong for being down on him. Seriously, he is ESPN’s top fantasy analyst — wow.) Of course, I didn’t even think Volquez would be sitting on the major league lead in strikeouts and ERA.

1. Josh Hamilton - Now the crack of the bat is the only crack Josh needs.

With fantasy drafts approaching (some already taking place, it’s imperative we go over the rest of the top outfielders to draft this year in fantasy baseball. If you’re looking for the top twenty of every position for 2008, click here. While I’m admittedly a huge fan of Rudy Gamble’s 2008 player rater/projections tool, I go more on instinct. (BTW, I haven’t lost a league to Gamble since Britney Spears was (supposedly) a virgin. Natch!) So what follows is what will be happening in 2008 for these fantasy outfielders. Don’t believe me; lose your league. I’ll sleep fine.

21. Manny Ramirez – I’ve already written why he should be avoided; click here. People disputed me. People were wrong. When he was 32, his lovable laissez-faire attitude didn’t matter. As time catches up to him, he doesn’t have the work ethic to put up top twenty numbers. I know that reports suggest Manny’s in the best shape of his life. Reports last spring training suggested Jason Schmidt would be the NL Cy Young. I know about the contract. Um, Manny’s a zillionaire. Do you really think he wants to play 150 games this year so he can make twelve million rather than ten? How many Wiis does Many need? Listen, he’ll still be one of the more productive elder statesmen (Hey, Luis Gonzalez, how’s the elbow?), but keep expectations in check. Projections: 85/32/105/.315

22. Hunter Pence – I tend to steer clear of second year players. (Here’s why Ryan Braun will suck.) In the first year, no one knows how to get them out (or catch up to them, if they’re pitchers). In the second year, everyone has the batter or pitcher’s number. Now they must adjust. This ain’t foolproof here; Hanley adjusted well (though I am down on Hanley this year, which you can see here). I’m just saying there are plenty of outfielders, why not go the safe rather than sorry route? Hunter may be great, but you’re going to have to draft him pretty high to get him. Stop with your ADD and wait a year; see what happens. Projections: 95/22/75/.290/17

23. Delmon Young – See Pence, Hunter. I actually like Young more than Pence. In the minors, he showed more potential. I think his ceiling is higher. So why is he below him? Why ask so many questions? The Twins might actually be worse offensively than the Astros. I know! Hard to bee-leave, right? Anyway, Young, Pence and Corey Hart (who placed 19th) are all very close. Corey Hart is on the best team offensively, Pence on the second best, Young third. See how that worked. Projections: 70/20/100/.285/15

25. Hideki Matsui – Why should you draft Hideki? Cause he loves porn. Also, you don’t get much safer. Sure, he had some injury problems recently, but he’s over the wrist and the knee should be fine. Stop looking for an argument. Projections: 105/25/100/.295

26. Vernon Wells – About here is where the caveats begin. Let’s call this Tier: Caveat. Caveat #1, Vernon absolutely sucks for extended stretches. I’m not talking an oh for twenty stretch. He’s stayed in a flunk for whole seasons. Ugh, I kinda want Swisher more. But he’s got caveats too. Well, Wells will steal… Maybe. I am giddy for Alexis Rios (he will be this year’s Holliday) and just maybe Rios can make the difference in that Jays lineup. Projections: 90/30/90/.280/7

27. Jeff Francoeur – Caveat #2, it’s obvious. But he’s still very young and he took almost double the amount of walks last year (I know, double of nothing is still nothing. Cute.). Very solid lineup around him (barring injury to Chipper, which is a thirty game given). I’m beginning to believe in Frenchy. Projections: 85/25/110/.280/5

28. Chris B. Young – Caveat #3, Krispie doesn’t make a whole lot of contact, but when he does, he has a power/speed combo that should make any fantasy owner excited. I had him for a bit last year (Gamble dropped him. Natch, natch!) and I’ve been crushing on Young ever since, even when he was hitting .230 for me. Projections: 90/25/70/.245/32

29. Andruw Jones – I don’t think he’s done-zo, but I watched more than my share of Jones at-bats last year. Caveat #4, He doesn’t care at all. Stop smiling after you strikeout; you’re really pissing me off! 85/32/110/.250 (BTW, speaking of not caring, while I was writing this up, I looked up to see if there was any new Andruw news. Seems he showed up to camp in Miguel Cabrera’s old body. Andruw will be retired by 36. Guaranteed.)

30. Nick Swisher – The move to the new team was a boon to his value, but that was mostly because his pre-trade value was pretty boon-less.  Caveat #5, Don’t go drafting Swisher expecting top OF value. He’s okay, but keep expectations in order. Projections: 90/33/105/.250

31. Jermaine Dye – Oddly, he seems like he has a bad attitude and, at the same time, no personality. (Unlike Jason Bay who can’t even sport a bad attitude.) Anyway,  Caveat #6, he had one good year amongst many mediocre ones. ’06 was an outlier. Don’t pay for a farkin’ outlier. Projections: 90/25/105/.280

32. Juan Pierre – Caveat #7, he’ll get you steals and maybe an inside the park home run if the official scorer blows a call on a bunt. Projections: 110/0/40/.300/50

33. Johnny Damon – Caveat #8, he relies on his legs and he’s getting old. And he’s getting old fast. Not sure what happened, perhaps diving for Manny’s cutoff throws took a lot out of him. If you don’t know what you’re getting from Damon by this point, you probably shouldn’t be playing fantasy baseball.  Projections: 105/15/70/.280/15

34. Jason Bay – Final Caveat, saved for this bum. I was going to leave Bay off completely, but I figured there would be some Pirates fan somewhere that would complain because Bay’s soooo cute and talented and, like, Canadian. Then I re-thought that and decided there are no Pirates fans. Act like you never saw Bay on this list. He’s poison. Projections: crap/crap/and more crap.

35. Shane Victorino – (Now’s the part of the list where I focus on sweet, sweet upside. These are guys you should be looking to draft.) Seriously, draft Victorino. What are you waiting for? I broke him down a few times already, but here’s the one that won me the Phillies Phulitzer. Projections: 115/15/60/.280/40 and Victorino and I get a room. (BTW, cause I know this is coming, Gamble beat me to Victorino last year. Reverse natch!)

36. Matt Kemp – If the price is right, pounce on Kemp. Shandler’s projecting 14/20; Rotowire’s projecting 17/14; I’m predicting… Projections: 95/20/75/.290/20

37. Michael Bourn – He’s been discussed too if you click here. He’s Juan Pierre for the Gen Z generation.  Projections: 105/4/50/.280/40

38. Josh Hamilton – Now the only crack Hamilton knows is the crack of the bat. Oofa! Seriously, folks. He’s the feel-good story of ’06. Like a baseball Mr. Holland’s Opus. Yowsers! Anyway, he does seem to be a bit injury-prone so be careful, but there’s upside in Arlington. Projections: 70/27/80/.300/5

39. Josh Willingham/Jeremy Hermedia – The upside portion of our show has concluded. I’m not advising you draft both Willingham and Hermedia. Actually, I won’t be drafting either, but they’re here cause, well, you know, they belong here. While we’re here — A secret! Don’t draft any Marlin. I love the “Who you gonna call… Maroone!” commercials as much as the next guy, but this team’s going to be wretched. Projections for both: 70/24/75/85/.270 Hermedia’s got more upside and (supposedly) the ability to steal. This has yet to come to fruition.

40. Kosuke Fukodome – I already dropped some knowledge about this hombre on your Fukodome. I veer towards the proven, so here’s another guy I won’t be drafting. Why not take the gamble? One word – KazIwamura. Projections: 65/15/75/.275 and Murton gets some at-bats. Alas…

Tomorrow we go over the pitchers to grab in drafts after the top twenty. You’re welcome.

One of the greater joys of fantasy baseball is the satisfaction of properly valuing a player – e.g., selecting the right 1st round pick, getting a ‘steal’ in a later round, avoiding a guy who you know is going to have a bad year, trading a guy right before he tanks, etc. But while there are rewards in avoiding or trading overvalued players, the greater rewards are in retaining and acquiring the most successful players.This reward system is one-sided. In investing, you can short-sell stocks that you know are going to tank and be rewarded. But if you KNEW Jason Bay was going to suck in 2007, all you could do was avoid him. What kind of reward is that?

This inequity is at the heart of a new fantasy baseball game that we at this FLB Blog are christening as Razzball. Razz is a card game similar to Texas Hold-em where the object is to have the worst hand possible. The objective of Razzball is to compile the worst fantasy baseball team possible.

HOW DOES IT WORK?
The rosters are the same as currently found in standard MLB leagues: 13 hitters (C / 1B / 2B / SS / 3B / 5 OF / Corner IF / Middle IF / UTIL) and 9 pitchers.

The stats are a bit different as there is a need to both reward below-average performance while making sure this isn’t achieved by avoiding active players. Since the aim is to be able to use a Yahoo or Sportsline free league for Razzball, we stuck with statistics that are generally available in those services:

Hitters:
AB (High = 10 points)
R (Low)
HR (Low)
RBI (Low)
K (High)
AVG (Low)

Minimum – 5200 team ABs (avg of 400 per position). Any ABs short will receive the pro-rated stats of 550 ABs at .320 AVG / 120 R / 35 HR / 120 RBI / 50 K

Pitchers:
IP (High = 10 points)
L (High)
HR allowed (High)
ERA (High)
WHIP (High)
K (Low)

Maximum – 180 starts

For hitters, R / HR / RBI / AVG are the core offensive Razzball stats. The lowest in each category gets 10 points, highest 1 point.

Since this could conceivably be done via inactive players, several countermeasures are in place. ABs rewards teams that use active players (Outs would be better but it is an unavailable stat in standard online leagues). Strikeouts also serve as a reward for keeping an active roster while reflecting the least valuable action a hitter can contribute (Ok, GIDP is worse but roll w/ it). The minimum of 5200 ABs penalizes any team that falls short of a 400 AB per position minimum.

One exception that was made vs. traditional fantasy hitting stats was the removal of SB. This has always been an admittedly overrated stat in FLB (vis-à-vis actual value). We considered using Caught Stealing but it’s rather unpredictable and low in frequency. In addition, removing SB makes it easier to draft OFs as speed-only guys like Juan Pierre and Willy Taveras become attractive high AB, low HR/RBI guys.

For pitchers, L / ERA / WHIP / K serve as the core pitching Razzball stats. Losses makes for a great replacement over wins as it rewards playing bad active pitchers. ERA/WHIP/K are similar to R/HR/RBI/AVG in that teams are rewarded for poorest performance (highest for ERA and WHIP, lowest for K’s). IP is added as a countermeasure and HR serves as a mirror to offensive Ks (the least valuable action a pitcher can contribute). The maximum of 180 starts is consistent with many leagues and protects against an extreme amount of pitcher flighting.

The exception vs. traditional pitching stats is the absence of Saves. We considered blown saves but this is somewhat unpredictable and VERY low in frequency. So it’s likely that many closers will not be drafted – rather, there will be the greatest demand for middle relievers that pitch a lot of poor quality innings with, hopefully, some of those games on the line (to accrue Losses). We also considered using BB instead of low Ks but felt that was already factored into WHIP.

We’re still undecided on whether roster changes can be made on a daily or weekly basis but we’re leaning towards weekly.

STRATEGY 101
Since Razzball is such a new concept, it’s really a blank slate for strategy. No collective wisdom over years and years of play and analysis. No publications or ‘experts’ to rely on. Should make for an exciting inaugural season.

As with regular FLB, strategy is dictated by the depth in performance at each position. Since MLB leagues tend to use about half the starting player pool, the depth in positions is nearly inverse so that the lowest valuable contributor (or Best Available Option as we’ve opined here and here) is very similar in both leagues – think Luis Gonzalez for OF (.277 / 74 R / 16 HR / 68 RBI).

Also similar to regular FLB, predicting pitching proves to be more unpredictable than hitting. In fact, the most valuable Razzball starter of 2007 was drafted in most regular leagues (Scott Olsen).

This points to an additional factor that makes for a very exciting variable – the chances that a below average performing player remains in the lineup / staff. The worst enemies are a player’s low upside, antsy coaches, contending teams, and unforgiving local media. Your best friends? A player’s high upside, smug coaches, floundering teams, and ineffectual local media.

Since there are only so many poor performing players out there, it will be important to retain them on your roster. So on the hitter side, we expect a similar amount of player activity as seen in FLB – there’s no way you’re dropping a Cristian Guzman but you’re going to rotate through 5th OFs in hopes of finding a guy on a cold streak or stumbling on a big find like a Norris Hopper (Reds OF from last year that managed 0 HR and 14 RBIs in 307 ABs!).

For pitching, it’ll be key to retain dud starters like Kip Wells and awful relief pitchers but we do foresee more turnover in pitchers than FLB since starting pitching reinforcements are generally worse than the pitching they replaced.

2007 POSTVIEW – WHO WERE THE TOP 10 BEST (AKA WORST) HITTERS AND PITCHERS?

Best 2007 Razzball Pitchers:
1. Scott Olsen (FLA) - 176.2 IP / 15 L / 29 HR / 5.81 ERA / 1.77 WHIP / 133 K
2. Livan Hernandez (ARI) – 204.1 IP / 11 L / 34 HR / 4.93 ERA / 1.60 WHIP / 90 K
3. Woody Williams (HOU) – 188 IP / 15 L / 35 HR / 5.27 ERA / 1.43 WHIP / 101 K
4. Daniel Cabrera (BAL) – 204.1 / 18 L / 25 HR / 5.55 ERA / 1.54 WHIP / 166 K
5. Dontrelle Willis (FLA) – 205.1 / 15 L / 29 HR / 5.17 ERA / 1.60 WHIP / 146 K
6. Jose Contreras (CHI-A) – 189 IP / 17 L / 21 HR / 5.57 ERA / 1.56 WHIP / 113 K
7. Adam Eaton (PHI) – 161.2 IP / 10 L / 30 HR / 6.29 ERA / 1.63 WHIP / 97 K
8. Edwin Jackson (TB) – 161 IP / 15 L / 19 HR / 5.76 ERA / 1.76 WHIP / 128 K
9. Kip Wells (STL) – 162.2 IP / 17 L / 19 HR / 5.70 ERA / 1.63 WHIP / 122 K
10. Kyle Davies (KC) – 136 IP / 15 L / 22 HR / 6.09 ERA / 1.65 WHIP / 99 K

Honorable Mention to Mike Maroth who had a fantastic 6.89 ERA / 1.88 WHIP / 51 Ks but his measly 7 Ls and 116 IP keeps him out of the top 10.

Best 2007 Razz Hitters:
1. Nick Punto (MIN – 3B) – 472 AB / 53 R / 1 HR / 25 RBI / 90 K / .210 AVG
2. Felipe Lopez (WAS – 2B/SS) – 603 AB / 70 R / 9 HR / 50 RBI / 109 K / .245 AVG
3. Alex Gordon (KC – 3B) – 543 AB / 60 R / 15 HR / 60 RBI / 137 K / .247 AVG
4. Brandon Inge (DET – 3B) – 508 AB / 64 R / 14 HR / 71 RBI / 150 K / .236 AVG
5. Nook Logan (WAS - OF) – 325 AB / 39 R / 0 HR / 21 RBI / 86 K / .265 AVG
6. Marcus Giles (SD – 2B) – 420 AB / 52 R / 4 HR / 39 RBI / 82 K / .229 AVG
7. Stephen Drew (ARI - SS) – 543 AB / 60 R / 12 HR / 60 RBI / 100 K / .238 AVG
8. Gerald Laird (TEX - C) – 407 AB / 48 R / 9 HR / 47 RBI / 103 K / .224 AVG
9. Brad Ausmus (HOU - C) – 349 AB / 38 R / 3 HR / 25 RBI / 103 K / .235 AVG
10. Craig Biggio (HOU – 2B) – 517 AB / 68 R / 10 HR / 50 RBI / 112 K / .251 AVG

Honorable Mention to Lyle Overbay who was able to out-Razz Richie Sexson due to 425 ABs that managed 49 R / 10 HR / 44 RBI / 100 K / .240 AVG in the usually productive 1B slot. He was just good enough to stay out of the top 10.

WHAT’S NEXT?
This won’t be the first article on Razzball. Follow-ups will include a 2007 Razzball Player Rater, an evolving Razzball Glossary, and details on our inaugural 10 team league.

We will be reserving at least 5 slots for fellow fantasy baseball bloggers/columnists.
Any open slots will be filled by submissions on this site. To get your name in early, comment on this article. The more you comment on the site, the more you’ll be considered (of course, if you’re a dumbass on the boards that won’t help your cause…even though that might seem to be a positive trait for Razzball). Also, Razzball questions can be sent directly to info@razzball.com.