Fantasy Baseball Advice

In this corner — BJ Upton.  In that corner — expectations.  Should be TKO with BJ clobbering expectations.  Not sure what happened on the way to September, but he hasn’t been right all season.  Maybe he’s hiding an injury.  But that was last season’s excuse.  This season he was supposed to make good on his cortisone-induced playoffs show that had every classy waitress in Tampa standing at attention from their chest.  Well, didn’t happen.  I still think there’s time and I’m excited about him next year (again!).  But until then, he’s now dealing with an ankle sprain.  I’m sure he comes back.  But at what?  87.7 percent?  You need 100% from this schmohawk.  Oh, and at 100%, he’s given you 2 homers and 8 steals with a near-.220 average since July 1st.  If there’s better options, I’d consider looking elsewhere.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Franklin Morales – Huston Street made it to September without an injury.  Mazel tov, my friends in Brooklyn.  It was a deed no one thought Street capable of in March.  Now he’s suffering from an arm issue.  Rafael Betancourt’s the righty, Franklin Morales is the lefty.  When in doubt, I go with the righty.  But the Rockies obviously got word that Betancourt is a Cuddle Boy, so they’re calling Morales the closer.

Jarrod Washburn – You guys had a good run.  Okay, it wasn’t that good.  But it’s over now.  He’s sucking on the suckhole and the Tigers are skipping him in the rotation.

Carlos Torres – 7IP, 0 ER, 6 Ks. He has a decent amount of Ks in the minors.  I’m not saying to grab him everywhere, but in some deeper leagues, I could see it where you need Ks because batters won’t be familiar with him.  He also walks a ton of guys, so be very careful.  He’s capable of a Spud from Trainspotting type defecation.

Michael Brantley – First steal (and caught stealing).  Nice to see him running.  He should continue to do so.  If not, we have people we can talk to to get him running again.  *wink wink* *nudge nudge* *hand under armpit making farting noises*

Fausto Carmona – 6 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 9 baserunners as he tied his owners to the WHIPping post.

John Smoltz – 6 IP, 4 ER.  Six innings and four earned is the line you get when you take a pitcher who shouldn’t go more than five innings more than five innings.  Or maybe he decided to tip his pitches again.  In fairness, Lugo bobbled a ball that should have been a double play then the wheels came off.

Jorge Posada – 4-for-5 and his 20th homer yesterday, while batting .288 on the season.  The Jetstream may be doing wonders, but he’s going into territory where he may be overrated next season.

Alfredo Aceves – Middle man who won his 10th game of the season yesterday.  Randy Wolf has 29 starts, 110 extra innings and 9 Wins.  Cust kayin’.

Cameron Maybin – 2-for-3 yesterday as he started, while Hermida deals with a strained intercostal (isn’t that a highway in Florida?).  Maybin should see time this weekend.

Marc Rzepczynski – Shutdown for the season.  And just when I figured out how to spell his last name.

Pedro Martinez – 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks.  Okay, never saw this game coming, but still a very solid effort sans dwarf.

Casey McGehee - Now has three homers in the last four games.  He’ll be discussed in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  You lucky you!

Jon Garland – 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks vs. his old team, the Diamondbacks.  So this is what other pitchers were talking about!

Orlando Hudson – Losing time to Ronnie Belliard.  Ouch.

Mark Reynolds – 1-for-4 with 3 Ks.  He now has 11 Ks in the last five games.  Obviously, I have much love for Reynolds this year, but this is the kind of stretch I worry about happening that would give me pause next year when people are going to be drafting him in the top 50 players overall.  When he was priced at an average draft pick of 175, it was much more reasonable.  Though I hope he turns it around and finishes this season strong so no one’s scared away for next year.  Muahahahahaha…

Hanley Ramirez – Missed another game because of his strained hamstring.  Then Uggla called him a faker.

Carlos Beltran – Hopes to return next week.  Wait until he sees what the Mets have done with the team!

Angel Pagan – 3-for-4 yesterday, hitting near .400 over the last week with one homer and one steal.  Maybe Pagan made a deal with the devil. (Pun point for Grey.)

Clint Barmes – Hit his 22nd homer.  Bar-MESS has 5 hits in his last ten games and two homers.  18 hits in August and he had 7 homers.  He’s a Jesse Barfield-Marcus Thames hybrid, the Barmes.

J.J. Hardy wasn’t appreciated by the Brewers earlier this year — I made all the key outs!  I don’t see Ryan Braun doing that! — Well, Hardy will return to the Brewers on Tuesday to pick up where he left off.  Hope he remembers to bring his magic bats with him.  This one here, this one is my runners in scoring position batting .198 bat. Too bad Alcides couldn’t step up in the two plus weeks he had the gig to himself.  Guess he missed the day in If You Have Speed Steal A Damn Base class when they went over if you have speed steal a damn base.  In fact, there’s only one day of class.  That’s all you learn.  This shot of Hardyrenaline will nullify Alcides and Hardy’s value in mixed leagues, unless one gets hot and runs with it.  Runs being the key word, Alcides.  Hardy has pop and little else.  His best month of the last two years saw him hit 9 homers.  Conservatively, I’d say you’re looking at a guy that will give you a .250 average and 4 homers.  I will enjoy not owning you, Hardy.  Be well.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brad Penny – Signed on with the Giants and will be inserted into their rotation.  Bartleby’s Quote of the Day, “Everything old is new again, except Brad Penny.  He just kinda sucks.” That Bartleby, he’s quotatious!  I do like NL West pitchers and Penny suddenly is on my radar in deep mixed leagues (12+ teams).  In 12 team leagues, I’d grab him for match-ups, but would be cautious.

Jim Thome – Dodgers acquired the forebearer of country strong.  He’ll serve primarily as the guy on the bench that chews tobacco and scratches himself.  Occassionally, he may fill in for the power off the bench when Juan Pierre just won’t suffice.

Jon Garland – Dodgers decided August 31st is the new July 31st as they made a flurry of deals.  Don’t worry, Timmy.  It’s just a flurry of deals.  It’ll pass. If Garland were a Native American, his name would be Man Who Will Serve As Dodgers Long Relief Man In The Playoffs.  For now, he’ll have a slight uptick in value.  Which is to say he goes from negative value to just a smidge.  He’ll give you no Ks, not a great WHIP, but he’s been keeping his team in the game, which could become Wins with the Blue.  Unless your name is Randy Wolf.

Jarrod Washburn – 5 2/3 IP, 8 ER.  About a month ago, I pointed out to you that Washburn’s FIP was showing he was headed for a correction.  His owners and the Tigers obviously didn’t pay attention.

Carlos Guillen – 4-for-5, 2 homers.  Somebody’s been drinking their raw egg Hulk Hogan shakes.  I’m not a fan of Guillen usually, but at this time of the year, he’s hitting with power with 8 homers since his return.  Worth a flier to see if he keeps it up.

Daniel McCutchen – 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 Ks vs. Reds.  The Dread Pirate’s brother from a different mother had his major league debut yesterday.  It was a modest showing against a terrible team.  The Pirates really should be monitoring his innings, but they do what they do, so you can do what you do.  McCutchen has decent value in deep leagues — Think of a 7 K/9 and great control.  On the Pirates, good luck getting wins.

Drew Stubbs – 4-for-9, 2 HRs and a steal yesterday.  His home run balls are still in the left field bleachers since there were only about 2,000 people in attendance.  That’s including players and media.  If you need steals, Stubbs is worth owning.  But, with all of his strikeouts, he’s still a faux hawk away from being cool.

Johnny Cueto – 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  Great, terrific, welcome back!  It was still against the Pirates and it was still only 5 innings.  I’d risk Cueto in certain leagues, but not for the risk averse.

Chad Qualls – Done for the season.  See yesterday’s roundup for the rundown.  See what I did there?

Juan Gutierrez – Didn’t wanna scroll down, huh?  Gutierrez got the save yesterday.  SAGNOF!  If you need saves, grab him in every league.  He’s just as likely to get 7 saves in September as is Broxton.

Adam Lind – 2 HRs, 8 RBIs.  I fluffed him in a fluff piece just last week.

Rod Barajas – 2 HRs yesterday, but only 5 RBIs so last night he was Barbara Hershey to Lind’s Bette Midler.  But he has six homers in the last 10 games and he’s batting near .400 in the last week.

Jose Contreras – Rockies got Contreras from the White Sox.  This seems like a recipe for blech.

Alexei  Ramirez – 1-for-3 yesterday.  It’s a longshot at this point, but if he somehow gets to 20/20 this year (needs 6/7 respectively), he will be the most disappointing 20/20 middle infielder in the history of fantasy baseball.  He’s like the guy who has a 25 game hitting streak while only hitting .275.  Excite me, Alexei!  Do something!

Vladimir Guerrero – 2 HRs yesterday.  For a guy with 13 homers, he seems like he has ten two homer games this year.  Have to check with Elias or Jayson Stark.

Nick Blackburn – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks vs. the White Sox.  He’s still a risky play in mixed leagues.  I’m not even sure how Blackburn managed 7 Ks.  Guess when the White Sox throw in the towel, they really throw it in.

Cameron Maybin – Returns to the ‘lins, yes!  Has no place to play, no!

Kyle Blanks – Done for the year with a tear in his plantar fascia in his right foot.  He was seen limping out of the clubhouse using David Eckstein as a crutch.

Adrian Beltre – Expected to be activated for today’s game as he was able to take grounders again off his nuts.

Jake Peavy is due back August 28th.  Member when I told you to drop him?  Yeah, that was so two months ago.  We’re in August, check your Mr. Winkle calender.  It’s a brand new day, Sting.  We gotta update you when you you have to pick him up, too?  (That’s a Royal we since this is just me.  Rudy’s in Prague doing spy business.  Ooh, I’m a spy, no time for Razzball for two weeks. Okay, Rudy… Or as I shall call you, Bill Clinton.)  So what can we expect of Jake Peavy when he returns?  Dominance in 30 minutes or less?  Probably not.  I’d put his line at 7 starts, a 4 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP with good Ks.  He’s dealing with a tougher league, but he’s also dealing with guys who don’t know him as well, though he’s also dealing with a shizzy ballpark, unless you’re Gavin Floyd. — Recently overheard convo between Buehrle and Danks, “If I’m not pitching well, and you’re not pitching well.  Who’s pitching well?”  “Uh-oh, Gavin Floyd!”  — With all of the unknown factors happening right now with Peavy — Will he return?  Will he be good? Will his robot foot hold up? — It’s worth a flier to grab him because his price tag is way below what he can give you.  Just don’t bet too heavily on him.  He may have a setback and not show up until October.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Will Venable – Don’t cha love Padres hitters?  They’re like other team’s hitters without the messy HRs, RBIs and Runs to worry about.  Venable’s been hot.  What, you don’t like hot?  I expect you’re going to want to drop Venable by the middle of August, but worth a week grab. (I used to try for the “weak grab” back in college.  The girls would retaliate with the “strong slap.”  Good times!)

Ty Wigginton – From August 1st to August 30th, give Wiggy one more chance.

Jim Johnson – Sure would be nice to see him get a save so we know it’s even him I should be touting.  I mean, I’m pretty sure it is, but ya never know.  I’d also be holding Danys Baez too, just in case.

Alex Gordon – Hitting near .300 since his return and he just hit his first homer since April 15th.  How’s dem apples?!  Yeah, not very delicious.  But if you’re hurting at CI, you can do worse.  Maybe!

Casey McGehee – Casey McGehee stars in, “The MI That Won’t Go Away,” with Claude Rains.  Razzball’s Buy/Sell’s going all noir on yo’ ass!  <– You might remember that line from MC Dark Shadows’s most famous song, “Fred MacMurray’s Macking Your Wife.”

Rajai Davis – SAGNOF!  Oh, and not just any SAGNOF.  We’re talking Bourn-type numbers in a very affordable off-waivers price tag.  It’s a steals for clunkers-type deal.

Asdrubal Cabrera – 2 homers and over .400 in his last seven games.  When I say, As… You say, Drubal…  As… Drubal… As… Drubal… As… You got it.

Neftali Feliz – Guy’s sick, but not sick as in ill, but sick as in healthy.  But he’s still just a middle reliever, so I don’t suggest you grab him in every league, but if you need a little relief — hehe — go for it.

Elijah Dukes – If he has a solid final two months, prepare yourself for every fantasy site telling you he’s a sleeper next year, until he’s no longer a sleeper.  Cust kayin’.

Matt Lindstrom – We now begin our portion of the program of middle relievers that may be closing by this time next week.

Mike Gonzalez – Soriano could lose the job any second now.

Yusmeiro Petit – Show me a -eiro, named Busta!  What, no LONS fans in the Razzpound?  Maybe Yusmeiro took the -eiro power from Pineiro, maybe he gets shelled next time out like the latter -eiro.  In certain leagues, I’d gamble on Petit (namely H2H ones), but keep your caveats in check.

Ryan Roberts – Johnny, who’s the MI schmohawk behind door number three?  Ryan Roberts!!!  The crowd looks around, “Should we cheer?”  One guy stands up and screams, “I want Clint Barmes to get hot again!”  With the help of her granddaughter, an older woman stands, “You and your (bleeping) Barmes!  Shut the *bleep* up!”  A chair flies.  A melee ensues.

SELL

Tom Gorzelanny – Don’t let a Cubs fan get in your ear telling you they’ve stumbled on something with Gorzelanny.  His solid game was vs. the Reds.  Gorzelanny needs to do it for another month before I consider owning him next year.

Randy Wells – Had a 120 IP last year, and he’s already at 120 this year with the minors and majors combined.  This has nothing to do with his stuff, but the Cubs should start limiting his innings/skipping his starts soon.  Lesser Known Fact of the Day:  His middle name is David.

Jarrod Washburn – I’m pretty sure his ESPN ownership numbers and his suddenly poor pitching are directly related.  He gets over 50% owned, he gets dusted like Tom Joad.

Gordon Beckham – Let’s get it out of the way right off the bat, I don’t think you should trade him for a bottle of Mad Dog 20/20.  I like Beckham.  I think he can be solid.  But here’s the thing, CBS wrote a cover story on him, ESPN gave him some pub….  (Bee tee dubya, I was the first one to go for the side of the barn title of, Buy It Like Beckham.  Since then, I’ve seen Hit It… Break In… and Rake It…  Just remember who’s setting the trends on layup titles.  Also, take a second and look at that Buy/Sell link.  I could sit here and tell you the numbers Beckham’s done since July 3rd, but I’ll let your eyes dance through those stats on your own time.)  People are starting to realize how good Beckham’s been in the last month plus (over .400, 4 homers, 3 steals).  In one year leagues, has he been that much better than, say, Asdrubal Cabrera?  No, not really.  Gordon Beckham will be one of my favorites for next year, but this year, he’s still just a rookie trying to get his swerve on while hitting the slurve.  If someone overvalues Beckham, fleece ‘em, North Face.

Sorry, but I’m going to open the vent for a millisecond.  Let’s go back to Stupid May Grey.  I was a point or two in front in one of my leagues, had a solid outfield of Adam Dunn, Carlos Quentin/Beltran and Rasmus.  I was within striking distance in steals and the news just came out that Jose Reyes would miss a few days, but avoid the DL.  I traded Dunn and Theriot for Reyes.  THE NEWS LIED!!!  I’ve filled in with Beckham for Theriot so no great loss there, but my outfield’s been shambles since — currently rocking Luke Scott, Fukudome, Teahan and the corpse of Carlos Quentin.  This is all thanks to Jose Reyes.  I know, this is the world’s smallest violin eating a burrito with a side of tears.  BTW, Jose Reyes is probably out for the season.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Luis Castillo – Injured himself walking into the Mets cemetery dugout.

Nelson Cruz – Was injured on the final play of the game on Monday.  Choose your own fantasy baseball report… One report says he’s day-to-two-days away from action.  Another report says he’s a day-to-two-days away from a 15 day vacation.

Bobby Jenks – To the hospital to have kidney stones removed.  Be cool if they removed a pet rock.  Thornton, Linebrink or Dotel, in that order, will probably fill-in for him.

Ryan Zimmerman – Day-to-day with a sore shoulder.  He should massage it with some coriander, cumin and a brine solution, Guy Fieri says that’ll cure any shoulder.

Geovany Soto – Due back today or tomorrow.  Oh, dubya-E-hockey sticks, guess The Jakie Foxx Experiment™ behind the plate isn’t happening.  A ‘pert can dream.

Vladimir Guerrero – If you saw him yesterday on crutches, that’s because he was activated from the DL.  The three stages of Vlad:  Wheelchair – DL, crutches – DH, pronounced limp – playing outfield.

Scott Baker – 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 Ks.  He’s been terrific in his last four starts. As terrific as this commercial?  No, but close.  (If you can watch that commercial less than 10 times, you have more willpower than me.

Yusmeiro Petit – 8 IP, 1 Hit, 4 Ks, if it wasn’t for Ronny Cedeno, he would’ve had a no-hitter.  See, those trades are already playing off.  Petit gets the Nationals next time out.  Must… stop… myself… from… picking…. him… up.

Ryan Roberts – 4-for-5, 2 HRs yesterday and a movie star name from the 1950s.  He has sneaky 10/10 potential, but probably not worth it outside of NL-Only leagues.

Krispie Young – HR yesterday, which was also his first hit in the last 7 games.  I miss you, Krispie.  Get well soon.

Garrett Jones – 0-for-4, Where’d you go, friend?  Is this about me putting you in the Sell category two weeks ago?  I’m sorry.  Come back, friend.

Brian Matusz – 5 IP, 1 ER, 9 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Great debut, and he’ll be a great one as the Mariners root for him to do much better than Tillman.  I’d still look to move Matusz.  His (the Orioles’) schedule in September is terrible and he’s still a rookie who’s prone to big ups and downs.

Jarrod Washburn – 5 1/3 IP, 6 ER, the same day he appeared in my FIP post.  Who’d a thunk it?  Well, I guess me kinda.

Dan Uggla – 1-for-1 with 4 walks.  Without looking it up, I’m going to say that’s a personal record.  And the Nats only gave up 2 other walks in the game.  Not really sure what any of that means, but I found it fascinating.  Oh my God, I’m turning into Jayson Stark.

Jason Hammel – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER.  A 2.67 Away ERA.  Even away games that you think you shouldn’t start Hammel in, he pitches well.  (Besides, of course, his Metco disaster last week.)

Jonathan Sanchez – 7 IP, 0 ER.  They might not all be as gravy as this start, but I’d own him in all leagues at this point as it’s hard to argue with 107 Ks in 102 1/3IP.

Gordon Beckham – HR yesterday.  Batting over .400 in his past 7 games.  Entrenched in the 2 hole.  Give me your password and I’ll pick him up for you.

Derek Holland – 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER.  Ah, the tale of the rookie pitcher is told again.

Rajai Davis – Since he has full-time duty, he’s hitting over .400.  Yesterday, he stole 2 bases.  SAGNOF!

Will Venable – HR yesterday.  Get a load of Will.  He’s vying for Garrett Jones’s spot in the roundups.

Yovani Gallardo – 5 1/3 IP, 9 ER.  Ouch… Wait, what?  Ow.

Evan Longoria – 2 HRs yesterday.  As David Wright impersonates Chone Figgins and Mark Reynolds impersonates a toasted sandwich bearing an image of Babe Ruth, Longoria will still be my top 3rd baseman next year barring unforeseen injuries, though I would like to see him steal a bit more.

B.J. Upton – 1-for-5, 4 Ks as he was dropped to 7th in the order.  Just get to 12/45 and you’ve done your job.

Johnny Cueto – 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER.  I sat him yesterday.  Yay! (<–sarcasm)  I hate having pitchers I can’t start ever.  I might be dropping Cueto in a 16 team league, and, trust me, when I drop someone in a 16 team league, there is no one to pick up.  Dustin Nippert anyone?

Tom Gorzelanny – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER.  That’s nice.  I wouldn’t pick him up with your team.

Albert Pujols – 2 HRs, 5 RBIs.  Maybe he’s feeling Mini-Donkey breathing down his neck.

Joel Pineiro – 5 IP, 7 ER.  April came and went and you chalked Pineiro’s hot start up to a fluke.  May came and went and you figured any day now Pineiro would breakdown.  June came and you thought maybe April and May were real.  July flew past and you had it, enough was enough, you had to pick him up.  I mean, his next start was against the Mets, for deity sakes.  It was the most elaborate Punk’d ever.  And he got you.

It’s been over a month since we took a look at some pitchers who are pitching over their heads.  Last time, we saw Cueto, Porcello, Millwood, Saunders, Lilly, Cahill and Gallardo were due for a correction.  Since then, they’ve had Liquid Paper dumped all over their stats.  Also, on that list were Matt Cain, Zach Duke and John Lannan.  6 of 10 pitchers pitched poorly since the last time I told you they would, Gallardo’s been marginally worse and Zach Duke’s been marginally the same.  That’s pretty bad odds against the pitchers on this list.  A few are still on here as they’re still pitching over their head.  For a refresher course on what the eff I’m even talking about with FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), take Exhibit A pitcher who has an ERA of 2.75 but his FIP is a 6.75.  A -4.00 difference.  That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up.  So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)

Matt Cain – -1.63 difference.  Cain’s regression is defying gravity.

J.A. Happ – -1.23.  Then throw in his home park and the Phils will have to start limiting his innings.  Or, at least, they should.  But after their handling of Hamels last year, they may not.

Edwin Jackson – -1.19.  Ouch!  That was Edwin Jackson landing on top of Aaron Hill in the giant pile of Guys You Already Got So Much Value From That If You Want More You’re Just Being Greedy.

Kevin Millwood – -1.19.  He still has a ways to go before we see the Millwood we know and don’t own in fantasy baseball.

John Lannan – -1.13.  The terrible K/9 and the team behind him makes him questionable anyway.  I recently owned him for his start vs. the Padres.  Got a 8 inning, 1 earned run game from him.  Then I dropped him.

Jarrod Washburn – -1.12. It’s only because his ERA is currently a 2.64.  You don’t really think he’s a sub-3 ERA pitcher, right?  Rhetorical!

Wandy Rodriguez – -1.01.  No!!!  Anyone but Wandy, please.  Here, take my Catfish Hunter 1978 RC Cola Player Soda Can.  Just leave Wandy alone!

Trevor Cahill – -.97. Since he currently has over a 5 ERA, he shouldn’t be on your team anyway.

Joba Chamberlain – -.91. If his mom, Anne Ramsey, catches him on this list, there will be trouble.