Fantasy Baseball Advice

Well, you gotta deal with Y!’s crappy waiver wire again, rather than just being able to pick Max Scherzer up. For the uninitiated, he’s a flamethrower with a Nazi sounding name who was called up by the Diamondbacks.  In Triple-A, he sported a 1.17 ERA and a 38/3 K/BB ratio. That’s good, ya’ll. I’d drop just about any fifth starter or second tier middle reliever to pick him up, even in mixed leagues. Keeper leagues and NL-Only leagues should go after him strong.  If he’s inserted into the rotation (and with Micah Ownings ailing, it seems like he will be), he could be as good Johnny Cueto. Which is to say, ups and downs, but very dominant stuff. He can be a bit wild at times, but if this season’s K/BB ratio is any indication, he might have tamed that problem. His spot in the rotation, as of right now, is tentative at best. Anyway, here’s what else I saw today:

Jorge Posada - Going into the season, Posada looked like one of the bigger possible busts (not including Billy Butler’s moobs) because of his unsustainable average from last year, and now he hits the DL for the first time in his career at the ripe age of 36. I think he might be out for the season because he’s going to see Dr. Julie Andrews, the doctor that puts careers on hold for years at a time. Even if Posada doesn’t need season-ending surgery, you don’t need him. Some catchers I’d look at:  Doumit, Navarro, Saltalamacchia, Snyder, Suzuki — really depends on needs, but that’s the order I’d grab those catchers if value was all you were concerned in.

Mike Cameron - Krispie Young Sr. aka Mr. 20/20/.250 is due back on Tuesday. He shouldn’t be on waivers in any competitive league.

Dave Bush - To paraphrase Lupe Fiasco — Kick, Bush. Kick, Bush. He was sent to the minors to make room for Krispie Young Sr. The Brewers make smart personnel decisions.

Manny Parra - After yesterday’s start (and the last three starts), I could’ve understood him getting the demotion, but I’m glad he didn’t. Meanwhile, he doesn’t look right with very little command of his pitches.

Paul Konerko - As I mentioned the other day, he was dropped in one of my ‘pert leagues last week. Yesterday he hit two home runs. See, we all make mistakes. I still see 35 home runs from Paulie.

Carlos Delgado - Also hit two home runs on Sunday. I’d still leave him for dead. Or trade him.

Gary Sheffield - He just doesn’t look right and the longer you hold onto him the less you’ll ever get for him. At this point, he may be nothing but a throw-in player in a deal.

Brandon Phillips - Hit two runs, as well. I’m still selling.

Justin Verlander - Last year was supposed to be the year after he logged too many innings and got roughed up. Maybe it’s coming a year later? Just like you had to wait out CC, you can’t trade Verlander where is value is at right now.

Edinson Volquez - aka Edison aka Julio Reyes was unhittable against the Ain’ts because either his stuff was filthy or he was extremely wild. Know what, still got the job done. For those savvy owners out there, I’d field offers for Edinson to see what kind of offensive player you could get.

Alexis Rios - Still not regretting having him on four teams.

Troy Glaus - Hit his first home run of the season. As I said a few days ago, everything is telling me no, but Glaus looks fine. Not saying he’s going to hit 40 home runs with a .290 average, but if you can handle .250 for 30 home runs, I think he could get there.

John Lannan - As the French say, he’s a poseur. (The French might not say that, but whatever. Ain’t like you’re quoting me when you’re out on the town with your lady friend.) I don’t buy his starts at all. Play him if you want, but unless he sold his soul to the devil in the offseason, he can’t keep up this numbers.

James Shields - Loved him coming into the year, even going as far as ranking him in my top twenty pitchers overall. Through six starts he has a 2.34 and I’m still buying.

C.C. Sabathia - Of course he’s okay. And so is Big Papi and so is Robinson Cano and so Ryan Howard and so is Prince Fielder and so is any major league starter who is slumping that has proven he’s better than how he is performing right now. As exciting it would be for a proven vet to completely tank (and CC is more or less a tank), it’s not going to happen.

Moises Alou - He might consider peeing on his ankle. He’s going for an MRI, possibly a slight fracture of the ankle.

Jimmy Rollins - Seems his broken ankle was more hyperbole from the world wide web than actual truth. He took batting practice on Saturday.

Jayson Nix - Was sent down. Cut him in all leagues. He won’t be back for a while, if ever.

Blake DeWitt - Nomar’s on the DL. In other news, water is wet.

Yes, Magic Johnson recovered from AIDS faster than Casey Kotchman beat the kissing disease. Yes, his name sounds like he should be some superhero’s little buddy. No, I don’t have him on any team. So why am I recommending you get him for your fantasy baseball team? Because he knows how to walk. Exciting, right? In six years of the minors his OBP was .407. Last year on the Angels, he had 53 walks against 43 strikeouts. He’s not going to hit 40 home runs. Probably won’t come close to 30 home runs. Back in January, I predicted Casey’s numbers would be 80/22/80/.300 for the season. I’d say those numbers still look about right. Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell.

BUY

Robinson Cano - Supposedly the loss of Larry Bowa is what has been bothering him. Yeah, and Oswald acted alone. Bowa’s family doesn’t even miss him that much. Cano will be fine, go get him before he puts together a hot streak.

Carlos Quentin - I’ve told you three times to pick him up, but I don’t feel the love. Go get him then return to tell me about how you dropped Sheffield for him. I’ll smile. What, you don’t want me to smile?

Khalil Greene - He’s a lifetime .250 hitter so I’m not sure what you’re expecting. Oh, home runs! Yeah, he’ll start hitting them. Patience, as Axl Rose would say.

Travis Hafner - I’m a bit concerned about the lack of walks, and even more concerned about the sore shoulder, but I’d still trade for him. He’s had ten home run months before and can do it again.

Paul Konerko - As I recently told you, he was dropped in my ‘pert league. I put in a waiver claim, but came up empty. He was snagged by someone else. If he’s going to reach his career norms, which I think he will, that’s a lot of hitting he’s going to do the rest of the way.

Erick Aybar - You like cheap speed from your middle infielders? Oh, and he has four Ks in 60 at-bats. I likey.

Shane Victorino - Sure the injury is a concern, but he’s still capable of good numbers and he’s about to come back. He bumps Werth to right giving them two outfielders. (Pat the Bat fields as well as Dunn, which is to say they’re DHs in two years.)

Jose Guillen - This is not to say he’s going to have some sort of incredible rest of the season, but he won’t be as bad as he’s been.

Dioner Navarro - Okay, for all of you people still dealing with a hole at catcher, go grab Navarro. His numbers post-All-Star break last year were 30/8/31/.285/2. He’s only 24. Again, those are post-All-Star break numbers.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Melhouse was injured yesterday. I’ve picked Salty up in two leagues. He’ll still have Laird in front of him, but if you really need a catcher, stranger things have happened than Salty getting playing time — one stranger thing was him getting shipped to the minors. To give you an idea of who I’m dropping for him, Qualls in a 12 team and Brocail in a fifteen.

Matt Stairs - Rudy once called Stairs a Poor Man’s Giambi. That was true once, but now Giambi’s actually a Poor Man’s Stairs. Weird, right?

Felipe Lopez - Simply because he didn’t break camp with a starting job doesn’t mean he doesn’t have value now. He’ll need to continue to stay hot to stave off Belliard, but he can go it. It’s not like Belliard has that much going for him.

Clint Barmes - Speaking of shortstops who became 2nd basemen who were then written off, he’s not as good as his last week of starts, but batting high in the Rockies order can’t hurt. But, as we know, deer meat can hurt.

SELL

Brandon Phillips - See this morning’s post. Or not. I’ll sleep okay. I wear a sleep mask.

Gary Sheffield - He’s like the baseball equivalent of Rowdy Roddy Piper. You don’t want to like him, but you can’t help yourself. Personally, I love Sheff. He’s a jackass — an egotistical jackass — maniacal even. What’s not to love? Sheffield this year. I know it hurts, but you gotta let him go.

Francisco Liriano - In all but deep leagues and keepers, you’re not selling as much as dropping.

Jorge Cantu - If someone actually believes the resurgence in Florida, I’d sell.

Asdrubal Cabrera - As if having a first name that sounds like a leaky bum isn’t enough, he’s been sitting for Jamey Carroll. Watch to see if Josh Barfield gets the call at 2nd.

Eric Hinske - He goes and gets hot and the club grabs Dan Johnson and Gabe Gross. Here’s mud in your eye, Hinske.

Alfonso Soriano - Not selling sell him for Manny Acosta, but Soriano’s recurring injuries spell trouble. Not to mention, he’s probably older than Tejada.

Jose Lopez - He’s really not that good when he’s playing well, which he is right now.

Kevin Youkilis - He’s not really as good as his April numbers would suggest. If you have a Son of Sam Horn in your league, trade Yooooook.

Daniel Cabrera - Really I could’ve easily put him on the Buy list; that’s the problem with Cabrera. Every time he turns a corner, he turns another corner and he’s right back where he started. If he just turned a corner and stayed there, he’d be incredible.

Here’s what I said in January, “I’m just going to point out one negative. In 650 ABs, he walked 33 times and struck out 109 times. He’s got speed; he’s in a great hitting park. He will not hit .288 again. At the first sign of struggle, he starts swinging for the fences and he goes into a deep funk. Hitters who don’t take walks fall into slumps. Do yourself a favor and let someone else draft Phillips. Projections: 80/19/75/.240/25 and is benched in July because his slump is “all in his head.”” And that is me quoting me. Through yesterday’s game Brandon Phillips is at 10/2/6/.250/3 with 20 Ks and 6 walks through 88 at-bats. Also, his BABIP is above the league average, so he actually is doing better than he should. As Rich Dad would say, Brandon Phillips is a liability, not an asset. Will he become completely unusable? I think he could. That’s not to say he will. It’s a bad sign when there’s chance. Don’t trade him for a Sportflics Canseco rookie card and a can of cola, but I would entertain offers. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Carlos Gomez - He homered yesterday, but I don’t think that’s an indication of great things on the horizon. As I said two weeks ago, a guy who tries to bunt with two strikes to get on base is not really someone you want to invest too heavily in. Picture this: Guy buys a Ferrari, but can’t afford gas.

Francisco Liriano - I told you to trade him two weeks ago. He has no value now.

Johnny Cueto - I began writing a strongly-worded letter to Dusty Baker when he let Cueto bat in the fifth inning, but Cueto surprised me and made short work of the Astros in the sixth and seventh inning. I feel like Cueto’s my little brother and I have to defend him, but he really only made a few mistakes in this entire game and half of them were to Berkman, who is on fire right now.

Corey Patterson - Was good to see him get the start against a righty (it’s bad that it’s not a given). Then Dusty pulled him for Freel when he was about to face a different righty. Oh, Dusty, you do have your way, huh? Corey made a baserunning mistake prior to getting yanked; he’s now probably further in the doghouse. He better give Jayson Nix a call for some moral support.

Brian “The Brain” McCann - He was the only top catcher I liked coming into this season for his value versus ADP. Hasn’t disappointed thus far, not to mention his slide into third for his triple was like a Triple Lindy gone bad.

Dustin McGowan - Seven walks. Sixteen on the season. Like when a girl calls you after a first date and says, “I had a really good time tonight.” Too much, too soon.

Jayson Werth - Four home runs and a .300 average. When The Flying Hawaiian returns, Jenkins isn’t going to play a whole lot.

Donnie Murphy - 2 home runs yesterday. Still nothing to see here.

Cliff Lee - For those wondering where this is coming from, he did finish fourth in the Cy Young voting in 2005 when he won 18 games and posted a sub-4.00 ERA. Though the strikeouts to this point are high. If you can move him for Wainwright or Maine, I would.

Miguel Olivo - I thought the lack of Miguel Cabrera post-home run hugs and booty slaps might affect Olivo adversely, but he’s hit three home runs in ten games.

Rafael Betancourt - In case you forgot because he hadn’t recorded a save yet, he is the closer.

Melky Cabrera - 4 home runs and counting.

Adam Melhouse - Injured his right hand. Whoopie-dee-doo, right? If he goes down, Salty comes back. Come again? You need a catcher, right? JARROD SALTALAMACCHIA might get the call-up. (I kinda hope he doesn’t cause his name is a nightmare to spell.)

Mike Napoli - 5 home runs and counting. Does it really matter if he’s not starting every game?

Chad Billingsley - I’m going to try a little experiment. Before the game starts, I’m writing this *****GUESS ALERT: Billingsley’s going to strikeout a lot because the D-Backs are swing-happy, he’ll walk a few cause that’s what he do, and he’ll still lose.***** Okay, I’m back. Wow, I did pretty well. And so did Chad, 12 Ks and only two walks. Very nice, but he still gave up five runs. I have no idea how he pulled that off because I had to watch Survivor. SPOILER ALERT: I can’t believe Jason, James and Erik didn’t try something. They made me embarrassed to be a man (as if it’s not embarrassing enough watching Survivor). James needs to stop talking about Eve and the stupid apple and start playing the game. And when did they develop Natalie’s character? Um, never. She was completely out of left field. You need to plant the seeds that someone is an -ocker short of a rocker. Okay, Survivor rant over. Sorry.

Nomar Garciaparra - He’s batting third. The Dodgers’ offense called and they said they wanted Mike Piazza back. They’d even take ‘07 Piazza. (BTW, You know that twitchy shizz Nomar does before he gets into the box? You think he does that before he gets into Mia’s box? If Mia were to let him.

Assuming you have already drafted your teams for this 2008 fantasy baseball season, these are the players you want to drop, add or simply hold onto for your fantasy baseball roster.

DROPS

Cameron Maybin – He’s gone. Might be in the minors until rosters expand.

John Patterson – After being released by the Nationals (how embarrassing!), he’s going to get another shot with the Rangers. Ugh. You don’t want any part of him, unless you’re into tall, long-haired hippies that are injury-prone.

Scot Shields – I love middle relievers, but he has forearm issues. Not worth it. Grab Justin Speier if you want to handcuff K-Rod.

Kelvim Escobar  – If you have a spot on your DL, then I guess hold onto him. If no room, drop his injury-prone ass, he might be done for the year.

Jay Bruce – Dusty Baker’s not playing him this year.

Homer Bailey – You’re waiting for magic in the NL-only leagues. Other leagues, look elsewhere. (Aside, if his name was John Smith, you wouldn’t have even drafted him. He’s got a great name!)

Evan Longoria – Braun was a special case last year. The Rays are cheap bastards and may call Longoria up in June or may wait even longer. I’m sorry, but you need someone else.

Chase Headley – Not happening here either. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets the call sooner than Longoria for two reasons, 1) Padres aren’t cheap bastards 2) Edmonds and Giles aren’t long for this world. Headley just needs to prove he can play some outfield.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – It’s with a heavy heart I report you should drop Salty. He’ll probably be up sooner rather than later, so you might have to pounce to get him back, but a catcher in the minors does nothing for you. Come back soon, Salty… (I am thrilled I won’t have to spell his name for a little while.)

ADDS

Carlos Villanueva – Brewers sent Vargas packing and handed his rotation keys over to Villanueva. Vargas really wasn’t that bad of a pitcher and he was having a decent spring. This says what you need to know about Villanueva’s talent.

Jayson Nix – If you need a 2nd basemen, he’s got the job in Colorado. I’d expect a decent value here. Think a young Marcus Giles. (BTW, Giles got old fast, right? I guess steroids do that.) For Nix, say 10/10/.270.

Edinson Volquez and/or Johnny Cueto – They’re going to be a hot add everywhere (in fact, I’ve already pimped them once) and the hype might exceed the results, but they’re worth trying on for size if you need a starter.

Matt Diaz – I’ve been telling you to draft him for three months now. The Braves are going to play him and he can hit .320 with some pop.

Carlos Gomez – He recently had a cramp in his hamstring and Punto took over for him, but the injury’s not serious. Not sure why he’s suddenly off everyone’s radar, but he is. He shouldn’t be. He can steal 50 bases, though he might strikeout 130 times. The Twins are committed to him and they’re a running team. This is another reason why I told you to not reach for steals in your drafts. Juan Pierre’s old; Carlos Gomez is not.

Joey Gathright – More speed if you need it.

Eugenio Velez – And yet more speed. Aren’t you pissed you drafted Juan Pierre, Willy Taveras or any of those other all-speed schmohawks?

Chris Snyder – If you punted catcher and you’re sick of looking at Pudge or Varitek on your roster, take a flier on the D-Backs backstop. He’s having a super-sized spring training.

Austin Kearns – I dislike Austin Kearns as much as the next person, and he’s burned me on many occasions, but he’s only 27. His road average last year was .301. The new Nats park might play like Coors East. You gotta take that chance. Just don’t drop anyone too precious.

Nate McLouth – He went 13/22 last year and he has a decent eye. He’s not going 40/40 with 150 RBIs, but you can do worse off the waiver wire.

Tom Gordon – Lidge is on the DL to start the season. Why not grab some free saves?

HOLDS

Josh Fields – He was sent down, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Crede gets traded or Fields ends back up in the majors very soon.

Brad Lidge – He was put on the DL, but he wants to play. He’ll be fine as far as the knee goes.

Manny Parra – He had a rough time of it in spring training, but he’s got a job for as long as Yovani’s on the DL, Parra will get a shot. Here’s hoping it goes well.

Andy Pettitte – He’s still having back issues, but he’ll still be good value for some wins.