Fantasy Baseball Advice

Hey, I can bench Eric Hosmer!  That was the first thing I thought when I picked up Matt Adams.   First stop for Hosmer is my bench, next stop waivers.  Yesterday, our prospect writer Scott said this about Adams, “Despite the impressive audition (in Spring Training), St. Louis sent him to Triple-A Memphis where he’s hit .338/.373/.597 with 9 HR through his first 150 plate appearances… With an advanced approach, solid on base skills, and plus power, Adams has a chance to do damage in the bigs right away.  He’s worth an add in most formats.  There’s really not much else to say, except Grey is handsome.”  I obviously wouldn’t have copied and pasted all of that if I didn’t agree.  In a 12 team mixed league, I found room for him (then again my offense could use anything at this point — I have Brian Dozier!) by losing Anthony Rizzo.  I do think Rizzo will be up soon and is worth owning, but I could only speculate on one “young 1st baseman that will fix my other young 1st baseman problem (Hosmer!).”  With Berkman possibly out a while (as of this writing, his timetable wasn’t clear, but it didn’t look good and he was talking of retirement), Adams just needs to hit to get everyday playing time (please, deity of my choice, let him hit).  At first, I could see him platooning a bit with Carpenter so don’t overreact on who you drop when you pick up Adams, but if you’re hurting at 1st base, get smart and don Adams.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Aroldis Chapman – Hey, he’s now the closer!  Mazel tov!  I remember when he was just a new Cuban raftee and, now, he’s a man.  A real fine chap, man.  He has yet to allow an earned run in 22 1/3 innings to go with 39 Ks.  Man, that is beautiful.  Shoot, I have to change my shorts.  And…I’m back!  You miss me?

Ryan Ludwick – 3-for-5, 3 RBIs with his 4th homer.  Just when it looked like Heisey finally bought himself a longer leash, Ludwick comes along to confuse Dusty.  (Yes, they both played yesterday, but that was only because there was a DH.)

Paul Konerko – After taking one off his face on Friday, the White Sox said they should be able to punim back in on Tuesday.

Jake Peavy – 6 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks.  No kidding, who would you prefer:  Peavy or Lincecum?  Is it close?

Gordon Beckham – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer in the last three games.  If it’s not the Rip Van Winkle of sleepers.  If you’re desperate for infield help, I could see grabbing him for your middle infidel spot.

Adam Dunn – 1-for-4 with his 14th homer.  Like one of those weekly Bieber’s been trampled by 1400 screaming Asian girls rumors, the reports of Dunn’s death were also premature.  Rob Thomas would say he’s come un-Dunn.  Fantasy Baseball Blurb Police, “Bieber and Rob Thomas in the same blurb?  C’mon, man, don’t make me ticket you.”

Ike Davis – Terry Collins (who?) said that Davis could be headed to the minors.  All kidding aside, have the Mets doctors checked him again for Valley Fever?  Actually, has anyone but the Mets doctors checked him for Valley Fever?

Kevin Youkilis – Phillies and Indians are “monitoring” Youuuuuuuk.  I found this funny for some reason.  Next time I’m caught sitting outside an ex-girlfriend’s house, I’m going to say I was just “monitoring” her.  Wouldn’t surprise me to see Youuuuuuk moved.  Red Sox don’t want to send Middlebrooks down and Youuuuuuk’s so welcome in the Red Sox clubhouse that Bobby Valentine commissioned Billy Ocean to remix his own song to, “Get Outta My Team, Get Into My Veggie Wrap With Swiss Chard.”

Josh Beckett – 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 9 baserunners, 5 Ks vs. Cliff Lee, who went 7 IP, 5 ER, 10 baserunners, 6 Ks, as the two last place teams battled.  The Comatose Red Sox and Phillies fans, that conked out the day before the season started, blink their eyes open, “Don’t you mean first place?”

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer in as many games, and 7th on the season.  Why do I wish he had 1st base eligibility and I drafted him instead of Hosmer?

Mike Aviles – 2-for-5 with his third homer in as many games.  Thomas Peefuttle who?!  Actually, that’s a made-up name, but Aviles has been good even if you compare him to someone who’s real.

Jonathan Lucroy – 3-for-5, 3 runs, 7 RBIs and 2 homers.  Actually, I wouldn’t mind dropping my whole RCL offense and having only catchers.

Corey Hart – 3-for-5, 3 runs, 2 RBIs with his 9th homer as the Brewers exploded for 16 runs.  Elias Sports Bureau said Corey Hart was rated by People Magazine as The Ugliest Man Alive.  Actually, Elias didn’t say that, but here’s something that was overheard at the Stamford compound of Elias Sports Bureau.  “In Accounting, Jeff and Dave have casually joked about switching wives twenty-seven times in the last two weeks for a new office record.  Also, Jeff recorded it a record 17 times to be used for blackmail purposes later.”

Colby Lewis – 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks vs. the Astros.  In related news, American League pitchers are fully supportive of the Astros’ 2013 league switch.

Vance Worley – Has a bone chip in his elbow.  He says he’s going to “man up” and pitch through the pain.  Who’s he Bruce Willis cutting a bullet out of his arm and bandaging it up with a shirt he rips with his teeth?  Ridiculous to think Worley’s going to be anywhere near as effective and not just end up back on the DL.

Anthony Rizzo – That billboard counting down is not how many hours until the America’s Got Talent premiere, that’s until The Scer arrives.  The Cubs confirmed yesterday what I was saying on Friday.  Rizzo’s arrival, or arrizzal, is imminent.

Max Scherzer – 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 15 Ks. There’s the eggs Woody Allen was talking about that we need.  Hopefully, if you dealt with the bad half of the schizo-Scherzer, you also got this good half.

Rod Barajas – B*****s ain’t shizz usually, but, for those in deep leagues, B*****s has 2 homers in his last three games.

Greg Dobbs – 3-for-4, and .154 over the last week, but whatever.  I just want to rant about how stupid it is that Ozzie is splitting up Hanley and Stanton with Dobbs.  I get the whole righty/lefty thing, but is that really going to change how opposing managers think when they see Greg Dobbs?  It’s not like they’re saying to themselves, “I’d go to my righty here but Dobbs, who’s hitting .253 against righties over the last three years, will kill me.”  Move Giancarlo into the cleanup spot, I need RBIs!

Josh Johnson – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  After the game, his porn star brother, Gosh Johnson sprayed the team with what everyone is hoping was champagne.

Emilio Bonifacio – Ended up on the 15-day DL with a sprained thumb.  When asked how it was feeling, Bonifacio stayed true to his name and tried to put on a good face.

Derek Lowe – 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 2 Ks to lower his ERA to 2.15.  He said he’d have an ERA under 2 if it wasn’t for Indians fans.

Mike Trout – 3-for-4, now batting .355.  At Sunday brunch, he had a mimosa, grapefruit wedges and a slam & two legs.  Trout homered and stole a base off Bass, something the media is calling “Fish on Fish” crime.

Vernon Wells – Headed to the DL with a thumb injury.  He’ll have some free time now to reply to all his fan mail that is meant for the actor from Weird Science, Vernon Wells.

Alexi Amarista – 1-for-6, with a steal.  He was the piece the Padres got from the Angels for Frieri.  Here’s what Bud Black said Scioscia told him, “The first thing (Scioscia) said was this guy can play six positions, he can feel comfortable with them anywhere, he swings the bat and he has some speed, so that versatility plays much better in the National League.”  Right, nothing at all like Maicer Izturis.  With the Padres now having (n)O-Dog, Amarista has been playing 2nd base.  In the minors, he hit for a decent average with speed.  In the majors, I could see him having a .270 average with 25 steals.  Definitely NL-Only grab.  I’d hold for now in most mixed leagues.

Justin Smoak – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs and his 5th homer.  I told you last week to grab him for his road trip and now he heads back to Safeco, so where there’s Smoak, there’s other options off the waiver wire.

Mike Carp – Has homers in back-to-back games.  Carpe Carp!

Wei-Yin Chen – 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER as he was pitchslapped by Strasburg.  I’ve seen Tony Pena pitch better than Chen.  And Tony was pitching in a Home Run Derby.

Danny Espinosa – 2-for-5, 2 RBIs with his 4th homer.  Going on about ten days of hot schmotatoness.

Jesus Flores – 1-for-4 with his 1st homer.  If you lost Wilson Ramos, Flores could basically do the same thing.  And that’s a promise or my name isn’t Grey “El Toro” Albright.

Stephen Strasburg – 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 8 Ks, but left the start with bicep tightness.  He said he should be fine for his next start.  He’s going to apply some Hot Stuff and then not touch his groin for the next five days.

Mark Ellis – Will be out for at least 6 weeks as the doctor performed an emergency procedure on him to relieve pressure in his leg.  The Dodgers will turn to Justin “The Inspector” Sellers and Elian “I Wouldn’t Mind Checking Out Miami Again” Herrera.  Elian and Sellers aren’t much to look at outside of deep NL-Only leagues, especially if they’re sharing time.  Since Ellis will be out, the Dodgers may now ask Flavor Flav to no longer stand above Dee Gordon’s head with his giant ticking clock.

Jeff Francoeur – 4-for-4, but I’m giving two of them to the now batting in the seven hole, Hosmer.

Wade Miley – 7 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 3 Ks.  I see you moving your cursor towards picking up Miley.  Stop and back away from your computer.  Go splash some coffee on your face.  You’re sleepwalking.

Brandon McCarthy – Went to the DL, but the A’s found no damage to his scapula.  Sounds like there should be a chicken in there, i.e., Chicken Scapula.  BTW, when you’re in a fancy restaurant and the waiter rolls up the cart carrying your entrees, make sure you say, “They weren’t joking when they said it was all a la carte.”  It’ll make you look classy.

Here, friend, are some catchers that I will be targeting at my 2012 fantasy drafts after the top options are gone.  I’m not going to get into the strategy of punting catchers.  Been there, half-drunkenly wrote that.  Click on the player’s name where applicable to read more and see their 2012 projections.  This is a (legal-in-most-countries) supplement to the top 20 catchers of 2012 fantasy baseball.  Now, guys (and four girl readers), I am not saying avoid catchers like Wieters, J.P. Arencibia, et al (which is not the Israeli airline).  To get on this list, you need to be drafted later than 200 overall.  And, to preemptively answer at least seven comments, yes, I will go around the entire infield, outfield and pitchers to target very late.  Anyway, here’s some catchers to target for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Devin Mesoraco – I’m not saying Ryan Hanigan will be the starter because it will be easier for Dusty Baker to spell on the scorecards.  Okay, I am saying that.  Even with my concern that Hanigan will be the starter, I’d draft Mesoraco as a flyer to see if he breaks camp with the team and steals enough ABs to be valuable.  Remember, Mesoraco could be Jesus Montero in a better ballpark.  To translate that into Pig Latin:  E pluribus unum piggy jowls en Cincy es muy bueno.

Chris Iannetta – The Sciosciapath has Bobby Wilson, ye of a 2 homer power and a .206 career average, backing up Iannetta… So Iannetta probably will only get 350 at-bats and be replaced every 3rd inning for defense.  I’m only half joking.  It’s up to you to figure out which half.

Wilson Ramos – I wonder if his kidnappers wore catcher’s masks.  I wonder if they were motivated at all by watching the movie, Celtic Pride.  I wonder if they kidnapped Ramos because they were just big fans of Jesus Flores.  I wonder if before they grabbed Ramos they gave each other the steal sign.  I got questions, y’all!

Geovany Soto – He has around 20 homer power.  Or nearly what Buster Posey has given us in the past two years combined.  Cust kayin’.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – I was talking to a friend recently and they reminded me of a word I used to say all the time — beyotchabatukis.  It’s pronounced like beyotch-a-bah-tukis.  It’s someone you can’t stand who you deal with because they offer you something of greater importance than your general hatred of them.  That guy that always refer to you as “kid” but can get you into a club for free?  Total beyotchabatukis.  I’d say a cheap catcher that can offer you some cheap power would be one, so Saltalamacchia is a beyotchabatukis.  It’s not in the dictionary, don’t try to use it in Words With Friends.

Russell Martin – He seems like he’s about 47 years old, but he’s only 29 and he just came off a season where he went 18/8.  Hey, I’m not a fan either, but you don’t need to be a cyclops with a monocle to see his value with an ADP in the 300′s.

Ryan Doumit – I’m most excited to draft Doumit this year.  Sure, it’s compared to Saltymochachino and Martin, but still.  If he can somehow get 400 ABs he could easily be a top 7 catcher for all the kingdom of baseball and its giant PED moat.

Salvador Perez – Part of me is surprised I didn’t write any sleeper posts about these guys except Devin Mesoraco.  Another part of me doesn’t think anyone wants to read a whole post about a catcher who I project for 10 homers.  I just vomited in my mouth, then swallowed it and burped out, “Salvador Perez.”

Josh Donaldson – Who?  Is this Sam Donaldson’s crossdressing son?  No, Random Italicized Voice, this is Scott Sizemore’s 3rd base replacement.  So why is he in the catchers to target?  Because he has catcher eligibility in CBS, Yahoo and ESPN.   Scott Sizemore’s knee is like Tom Sizemore’s life — needs serious rebuilding.  With him out for the year, Josh Donaldson is the favorite to play 3rd.  In Triple-A, he had some huge numbers — 17 homers, 13 steals.  Those numbers would be terrific, but probably unrealistic.  I’ll give him 50/12/60/.240/7 in 500 ABs.  Sounds like blech with a side of belch, but in two catcher leagues he could pay dividends.  He could even out-produce Suzuki.  Wait, can he bend in his dress?  It’s not the same person.

Went over the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball and top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.  Now, friends, it’s time for the top 20 catchers for 2012 fantasy baseball.  In the past, the top 20 catchers were the glass of warm milk right before you went to sleep.  “Hey, I just drafted A.J. Pierzynski!”  Snooze.  “I love Kurt Suzuki this year!”  Yawn.  But this year, for the first time in a while, there’s actually some catchers that could get your nethers moving.  I don’t draft top catchers in one catcher leagues.  Because I ignore the top catchers doesn’t mean I’m starting the top 20 catcher list at number twenty-one (Carlos Ruiz?  Belch.); some of you might want to know the top catchers.  You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make them draft Chris Iannetta.  In two catcher leagues, catchers are a little more valuable, but I’d still prefer to avoid them.  You can see other top 20 lists for 2012 fantasy baseball under 2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings.  Listed along with these catchers are my 2012 projections for each player and where the tiers begin and end.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 catchers for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Carlos Santana – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here until Mike Napoli.  I call this tier, “You wanna draft a top catcher?  Be my guest!”  Last year, The Supernatural hit 27 homers.  Makes sense.  He stole 5 bags.  Sounds about right.  He hit .239.  Huh?  Does not compute.  Must investigate.  His walk rate tanked from 19.3% to 14.7% and his strikeout rate jumped from 15.1% to 20.2%.  He was a bit unlucky, but his average can’t be explained away by that.  His line drive rate fell, ground ball rate shot up and his infield flies went up.  The assumption around most parts are he’s going to repeat his homers, counting stats and bounce back in the average department in a big way.  He’s talented and young enough for that to happen, but I wouldn’t wager on it.  This is also a whole lot of hot air cause I’d take his last year with a small bump on average and be more than happy.  That’s if I were to draft Santana, which I would not unless he fell.  I don’t draft top catchers.  2012 Projections:  80/25/90/.260/5

2. Brian McCann – The string of me ranking McCann first overall for catchers has come to an end.  Trust me, I tried to justify moving him up for longer than I’d care to admit.  Okay, I’ll admit I only thought it over for three minutes.  But those three minutes were underwater so it felt a lot longer.  What ended up having me leave Carlos Santana above McCann is Santana is younger and has already hit more homers in one season than McCann ever has.  Now, the one thing that has me still as a non-apologetic McCann apologist is he’s only 28 years old and, deep in my loins, I really believe McCann’s gonna hit 30 homers one of these years, and if it’s gonna be any year it may as well be his 28-year-old season, and this is the longest run-on sentence ever, according to the Guinness Book of World Records, I checked.  2012 Projections:  70/25/85/.275/3

3. Matt Wieters – At some point last year I felt as if people weren’t appreciating Wieters, and I began to like him.  It’s tough always swimming against the tide!  Unlike Santana, Wieters actually cut his K-rate and was a bit unlucky to end up with only a .262 average.  He made more solid (solider?) contact last year pushing up his line drive rate while cutting his ground balls.  To throw a random name at you, I think Wieters outperforms Ike Davis in 2012.  To throw a more random name out at you — Mitzi Gaynor.  2012 Projections:  80/24/85/.280

4. Mike Napoli – I hope Mike appreciates I was here for him even when his own manager didn’t want to play him.  When someone needs a makeover, I simply have to takeover.  Nothing is gonna stop Napoli from being pop-ewe-ler…LAR!  That was for our three girl readers.  If any of you ladies like mustaches, dial 1-800-G-R-E-Y-S-T-U-D.  With that said (here comes the negative), Napoli just had his best season.  It was a good one too.  I’m happy for him.  I’m happy for his mom’s nipples.  Still doesn’t change the fact that I need to think about 2012 and not 2011.  The power shouldn’t fall off the map like the earth is flat, but 30 homers is the ceiling.  The bigger problem is his average.  The only time he ever had more than 500 plate appearances in a season he hit .238.  Sadly, that’s repeatable for him.  2012 Projections:  60/25/70/.250/3

5. Buster Posey – This is the next tier.  This tier goes from here until Jesus Montero.  I call this tier, “They could be the top catchers, but they’re not.  Go figure!” From early mock drafts that I’ve seen (I’ve looked y’all!), Posey’s still being overdrafted.  My man could miss three seasons and still get drafted high.  You know, like Joe Mauer.  Posey does seem like the only thing holding him back is avoiding freak injuries (no connection to Lincecum).  But, you know what, I’d like to see him avoid these freak injuries prior to me drafting him anywhere near where he’s going.  2012 Projections:  65/20/75/.300

6. Alex Avila – I expect he’ll have the same exact year in 2012 as he had in 2011.  Yay.  Moving on.  Okay, I’ll say more.  As my life coach tells me, expectations lead to disappointment.  So my expectations are Avila will repeat last year, but he’s also very young (25).  He only has one and three-quarters of a season in the majors.  So does that make him a super sophomore?  Well, hopefully he doesn’t have a super sophomore slump.  See what I did there?  Don’t light that match, I’m cooking with gas!  2012 Projections:  60/19/75/.280/3

7. Joe Mauer – People who still draft this guy high are either more trusting than me or idiots.  It’s well established at this point he’s never repeating his year of 28 homers from 2009.  Frankly, I’d like to see him hit 10 homers again, and don’t call me Frank Lee.  2012 Projections: 80/10/85/.310/3

8. Miguel Montero – What separates Miguel Montero from Jesus Montero?  M-I-G-U-E-L.  C’mon, that was easy.  Oh, and upside.  If you don’t want to take the chance on Jesus’s ability to walk on water and prefer the safer bet, I could see just going for the less flashy Montero.  2012 Projections:  60/17/75/.270

9. Jesus Montero – I had already went over my Jesus Montero 2012 fantasy.  It went something like this blah blah blah I’m smart blah blah blah I’m smart.  Now the post reads like I’m the King of Wishful Thinking after Cashman told him to Go West.  (There’s a terrible 90′s pop song pun in there.  I apologize.) The trade of Montero/Pineda wasn’t great for either player’s fantasy value.  Though it’ll turn out worse for Pineda in the short term.  For Montero, the M’s have a whole lot fewer DH/catcher options so this should actually help him retain (gain?) catcher eligibility a lot easier.  It’s going to hurt his power a tad.  In the Yankees lineup, I had his projections as 70/20/85/.290.  With 677 ABs in the leadoff spot, Ichiro only had 80 runs, so you can see Montero’s counting stats are gonna take a hit.  Also, Safeco, like all -co parks, is no hitter haven.  So you’re going to get a guy that actually can play catcher for fantasy but will have less production.  (Note: He may not have catcher eligibility to start the year, so be very, very careful.  Or not.  Your choice.  I do think he gets the eligibility quickly on the M’s though.)  2012 Projections: 55/17/70/.285

10. Geovany Soto – This is the next tier.  This tier goes from here until Arencibia.  I call this tier, “Low averages and catnip for kidnappers, but I’ll draft them.”  Seriously, are the good catchers going to go on forever?  How deep is this mother-effin’ position this year?  It’s a brand new day, Sting.  “Get your cousins and marry them cause catchers are breeding up in here like rabbits!”  That’s the guy at your draft talking who you can’t believe you were once close friends with.  I’m getting slightly tired of trusting Soto, but he comes at a decent price and I feel like there’s gotta be one season in his bat of neutral luck where he hits for a decent-enough average and power.  Why not this year?  Then we can all say Theo Epstein was the reason and Michael Lewis can write a book about it.  2012 Projections:  60/18/75/.260

11. Wilson Ramos – Okay, stop with all these catchers.  My heart can’t handle it.  They’re all so beautiful.  If you can’t tell, I’m drafting a catcher from this tier if things work out the way they should at drafts.  Last year, Ramos hit 15 homers but that was in only 113 games/389 at-bats.  Extra 100 ABs shouldn’t be hard to come by with a few extra dingers, but I do think Ramos’s owners will not only need to wear ski masks, but will need to set him and forget him as learned in The Ron Popeil School of Catcher Management.  2012 Projections:  55/18/70/.270

12. J.P. Arencibia – You win, catchers!  You are one sexy position this year.  It’s like I’m looking at you in a red-lit room in Amsterdam and can’t decide which one of you I want to screw me.  J.P. which stands for “Just the facts, Paul” looks like a young Napoli.  Now if only his manager would bench him for four of five days the circle will be complete.  Arencibia probably won’t hit above .240 (his K-rate was 27.4%; that’s crazy terrible), but if we join hands and pray maybe, just maybe, he can hit .245.  2012 Projections:  50/21/70/.235

13. Devin Mesoraco – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Suzuki.  I call this tier, “Sexy names with no track record and unsexy names with track records.”  Devin’s one of those sexy names I mentioned about fifteen words ago.  I already went over my Devin Mesoraco 2012 fantasy.  I wrote it while picking lint from between my toes.  2012 Projections:  55/18/65/.280 (<–Optimistic, but whatever)

14. Salavador Perez – UPDATE:  INJURY.  DON’T DRAFT. He will only be 21 years old to start the season.  At catcher, there’s an old credo that I just made up right now that maybe people say but I’m not aware of it.  It goes something like this, “Catchers take a few years to get used to catching and hitting at the major league level.  It’s not an easy position to just jump into.”  Wearing a pithy helmet with that one, I tell ya.  So, as a 21-year-old, you’re going to have some growing pains with Perez.  Incredibly, he has been playing pro ball since 2007 and he makes solid contact.  Could I have ranked Yadier here instead?  Sure, but what fun is that?  2012 Projections:  50/10/65/.280

15. Jarrod Saltalamacchia – I like to think Saltymochachino is a nice bridge between the sexy names in this tier and the unsexy names.  I’m being too generous.  He’s not sexy.  Saltymochachino’s had 5 years to be sexy and he still looks like Phyllis Diller first thing in the morning.  Last year his K-rate was so absurdly bad (30.8%) that he shouldn’t have a starting job.  As of this writing (around December 8th at 4:23 PM), he still did.  Holy crap, it’s now December 12th at 5:35 PM!  Damn, I have to work on typing faster.  Wait, now it’s December 13th and Shoppach just landed in Boston.  Maybe slow typing isn’t bad after all!  Kelly Shoppach will steal time from Salty, but for now Salty looks good for some cheap power and maybe he’ll luck into a decent average.  I mean, Napoli did hit .320 last year.  In.  Sane.  (Yeah, I did that douchey one word into two sentences thing.)  2012 Projections:  45/15/60/.220

16. Ryan Doumit – And just like that the catchers get even less sexier.  Wha’ happened?!  I went over my Ryan Doumit 2012 fantasy already.  I wrote it on the wall of my cell.  If Doumit can scrounge together 500 plate appearances, he could be as valuable as Joe Mauer.  Before you laugh, think to yourself why you’re laughing?  Because you think I’m dumb?  That’s not very nice.  2012 Projections:  45/14/55/.260

17. Russell Martin – Technically, he should be ranked higher than this if he just repeats last year, but there’s the pickle juice that kills you. (Snopes confirmed!)  Martin’s not repeating last year.  If he gets 12 homers, I’ll run around my office naked.  Though, I do work from home and don’t own clothes, so it’s not much of a bet.  2012 Projections:  50/10/60/.240/9

18. Jonathan Lucroy – When you look at Lucroy’s age (25), you think sexy.  Yeah, he doesn’t look like anything other than a Yadier Molina clone, but — and like J. Lo this is a big but — Lucroy’s young enough to maybe fill out a little and add a few more homers.  When you’re this deep, you go for upside and not for Molina. (Notice how I keep talking about Molina but have yet to rank him?  That’ll all change soon.)  2012 Projections:  50/13/60/.260/3

19. Yadier Molina – Hey, is that Diego Rivera catching?  No!  Doc Ock?  Nope!  It’s the other Molina!  Yeah, he’s boring as dog balls.  If you draft Yadier Molina as your catcher, this tells me you don’t care enough to at least draft someone with some upside.  Shame on you and the horse you rode in on.  Beautiful horse, though.  Very regal.  You must watch Downton Abbey.  2012 Projections:  45/9/50/.280/5

20. Kurt Suzuki – Do me a favor and don’t draft him.  How’s dem apples?  Sour!  Suzuki’s never hit more than 15 homers and hasn’t hit above .242 in two years.  You’re expecting a miracle in a crappy lineup in a terrible ballpark?  Maybe Hatteberg can come out of retirement and drive him in 120 times.  You’d like that cause you need happy endings.  Well, then go get a massage!  2012 Projections:  50/12/55/.240/3

After the top 20 catchers for 2012 fantasy baseball there’s a lot of names, but these two stand out:

Victor Martinez – He was originally ranked 6th, but now he has a torn ACL. What a debACLe!  Oh, God, that is rich.  Sounds like he’s gonna miss the whole season, unless you believe in mirACLes.  Seriously, effin’ rich!  2012 Projections: nothing/but/doo/dee

Chris Iannetta – If I knew the Sciosciapath were definitely going to give Iannetta 500 plate appearances, I’d be more excited about drafting him.  But what the hey?!  It’s a catcher; I’ll still take a flyer and see where he goes.  Something no one seems to talk about in their rankings.  You could put “Undecided” ranked 12th on every list and still do fine as long as you don’t take “Undecided” for every position.  Now if you were to draft “Undeclared” you’d be in trouble.  I keed!  Or do I?  No, I do.  To talk you out of drafting Iannetta, even though I think the point is to talk you into drafting him, he’s out of Coors and his home/away splits look like a mural made of turd.  Turd, turd, turd, turd is the word!  Damn, now that’s stuck in my head.  Last three years — he’s hitting .171 in away games.  Whatever, I don’t care if his away average is floating in the toilet waiting for someone to flush it like Lawrence Taylor’s post-football career.  I placed him here to highlight him, but I’d rank him right above Arencibia because a flyer at catcher is fine.  Turd, turd, turd, turd is the word!  Now it’s stuck in your head too.  Sucker!  2012 Projections:  55/16/65/.245/5

It feels like yesterday the baseball regular season started.  You wrote “I heart baseball” in permanent marker on your arm, then you met a girl who wrote “I heart guys who heart baseball” on her arm, then, during sex in September, you screamed out “I love you, Marco Scutaro!” and now you don’t have baseball or a girlfriend.  C’mon, calendar, make like a soldier and turn to March.  The only cure for the post-baseball season blues — recapping the preseason top twenty lists and being hand-fed Doritos.  First up, Cool Ranch and our preseason Top 20 Catchers for 2011.  It’s important to look back before we look ahead to 2012. To paraphrase the one and only B-Real, “How do you know where you’re at, if you don’t know where you’ve been? Understand where I’m coming from?”  It wouldn’t be fair for me to preseason rank the players then rank them again in the postseason based on my opinion, so these postseason top 20 lists are ranked according to ESPN’s Player Rater.  It may not be wholly accurate, but it’s wholly unbiased.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 catchers for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them:

1. Victor Martinez – ESPN’s overweighing average here.  I don’t care, he’s not the number one catcher.  He’s good, but the number one catcher only has 12 homers?  C’mon.  I mean, c’mon c’mon.  Even c’mon c’mon c’mon.  In the bigger picture, he was about as valuable as Jimmy Rollins and Beltran.  Weird how four years ago that was probably true too.  Not weird as in funny or interesting.  Just weird.  Preseason Rank #3, 2011 Projections:  70/18/85/.300, Final Numbers:  76/12/103/.330/1

2. Mike Napoli – Eat your heart out, Mike Scioscia!  It’s absolutely bonkers that a catcher is ranked this high and some people didn’t even want him on their team for at least two months of the season.  He’s basically the reason why the Ron Popeil ‘Set It and Forget It’ catcher strategy was invented.  The catcher field is so shallow that you don’t need to do much to be a top ranked catcher, i.e., a guy that doesn’t even play every day can be close to the top ranked catcher.  I love you, Napoli, for as much as your stats as for how smart you make me look.  Now introduce me to your Moms!  Preseason Rank #5, 2011 Projections:  65/24/75/.255/5, Final Numbers:  72/30/75/.320/4

3. Alex Avila – First (and really only) out of nowhere guy to place in the top of the catcher rankings.  AA, you are no longer anonymous.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  63/19/82/.295/3

4. Miguel Montero – Never hit more than 4 homers in a month and only had one month over a .300 average.  3 ladies and gentlemen, your 2011 fantasy baseball catchers!  Preseason Rank #8, 2011 Projections:  55/15/70/.275, Final Numbers:  65/18/86/.282/1

5. Yadier Molina – He could be next to the definition for yawnstipating in the dictionary, but yawnstipating isn’t a word you find in a dictionary.  Yet.  Preseason Rank #12, 2011 Projections:  40/7/55/.270/7, Final Numbers:  55/14/65/.305/4

6. Carlos Santana – Pretty weird season from the Supernatural.  If you jumped out of a DeLorean and told me he’d have 27 homers this year, I’d say why are you time traveling with that info?  Can’t you tell me something could actually make me money?  I’d also say Carlos must have a .300 average and be the best catcher.  His K-rate went up, walk rate went down, ground ball rate went up, fly ball rate went down, line drive rate went down… Honestly (as if I’d lie to you), you’re pretty lucky you got the homers and counting stats from Santana.  This could’ve been a disaster season.  Preseason Rank #10, 2011 Projections:  55/15/65/.280, Final Numbers:  84/27/79/.239/5

7. Brian McCann – Every year I will continue to rank him number one.  Whether he wants to actually listen to me is between us.  I ask that you respect our privacy.  Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections:  80/25/95/.280/3, Final Numbers:  51/24/71/.270/3

8. Matt Wieters – Had a nice bounce back season, or he had a good August and September that is totally clouding my judgment.  I think it’s more the former than the latter, assuming I’m not confusing what former and latter means.  I could see ranking him as high as number two for catchers next year.  I probably won’t because that sounds insane to me as I write it and that’s how much forethought I had on the matter.  Maybe I think about it a little bit.  Preseason Rank #6, 2011 Projections:  60/18/85/.280, Final Numbers:  72/22/68/.262/1

9. Russell Martin – I put him in the preseason tier of upside guys because of his tremendous potential.  I mean, he only had four straight years of declining homers, RBIs, runs and average.   Oh, wait, he was an upside pick because he went to the Yankees.  Yeah, made sense then and now.  Thank you, genius brain inside my head.  Genius Brain Inside My Head, “You’re welcome.  Or is it ‘your?’”  Preseason Rank #16, 2011 Projections:  70/10/60/.270/10, Final Numbers:  57/18/65/.237/8

10. Wilson Ramos – His walk rate and ISO went up and he’s only 24 years old.  I could see him getting a sleeper post in the offseason then hitting 15 homers and a .270 average next year and being valuable in 2012 but still not that interesting.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  48/15/52/.267

11. J.P. Arencibia – This is about where the fun ends for catchers, and really was it that much fun prior to this?  Arencibia hit 23 homers and had 78 RBIs, yet as late as mid-September he was only owned in 50% of ESPN leagues.  Either a lot of people play in 8 team leagues or a lot of people overvalue average.  Next time I’m in a place with a bunch of fantasy baseball nerds, I’ll ask that question.  Speaking of which, we should have a Razzball field trip to Vegas this year.  Preseason Rank #17, 2011 Projections:  40/15/55/.240, Final Numbers:  47/23/78/.219/1

12. Miguel Olivo – His Hacky McHackstein ways seem to have translated across the whole catcher pool, i.e., most of this top 20 have batting average issues.  Preseason Rank #20, 2011 Projections:  45/15/55/.235/7, Final Numbers:  54/19/62/.224/6

13. Chris Iannetta – Let’s give you an idea of how bad/shallow/synonym the catchers are.  Iannetta is ranked here and he was replaced by his own team for a few weeks in September.  When can I start recapping the 1st basemen?  Oh, in my next post.  Preseason Rank #15, 2011 Projections:  40/15/60/.245, Final Numbers:  51/14/55/.238/6

14. A.J. Pierzynski – I hate A.J. from a fantasy standpoint.  It doesn’t look like I’m alone either since he’s the 14th best catcher and was owned in less than 10% of all ESPN leagues just about the whole year.  I think he’s the poster child for all that’s wrong with the ESPN Player Rater.  How does a guy who hits 8 homers and 40-ish runs and 50-ish RBIs rank this high?  Cause of the decent average?  I don’t buy it.  Preseason Rank #13, 2011 Projections:  50/12/55/.275, Final Numbers:  38/8/48/.287

15. Jonathan Lucroy – The Brewers backstop had a solid season for him and when you look at his numbers you realize why he wasn’t ranked by me in the preseason.  Lucroy, you are Matt Wieters’s po’ boy.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  45/12/59/.265/2

16. Carlos Ruiz – Snooze.  Preseason Rank #14, 2011 Projections:  35/10/55/.265, Final Numbers:  49/6/40/.283/1

17. Jarrod Saltalamacchia – In the preseason, I said, “He’s not quite old; he’ll be only 26 years old in 2011.  In the last round of draft, you got better things to do than to draft an upside catcher in a hitters’ park and lineup?  Yeah, I didn’t think so.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Preseason Rank #23, 2011 Projections:  55/16/70/.255/5, Final Numbers:  52/16/56/.235/1

18. Ramon Hernandez – If you put Hernandez and Hanigan together, you get a Latino-Irishman — a Leprecano — that has very little fantasy value.  Please let Mesoraco catch in 2012.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  28/12/36/.282

19. Kurt Suzuki – In the preseason, I said, “I stared at the screen for three minutes trying to think of something positive to say about Suzuki.  What you ended up with was me confessing to you that I had nothing positive to say about him.  That about sums it up.” And that’s me still having nothing to say positive about Suzuki!  Preseason Rank #11, 2011 Projections:  60/14/70/.260/3, Final Numbers:  54/14/44/.237/2

20. Geovany Soto – I haven’t given up on Soto yet.  Sure, this year was miserable.  And last year was miserable.  And… Was he ever good?  I think he was.  Never the hoo!  Soto and I have high apple pie in the sky hopes, and you can’t take that away from us.  Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections:  60/18/75/.270, Final Numbers:  46/17/54/.228

Jesus Guzman – Over 11 years ago, in 2000, when Guzman was 16, he signed a minor league deal with the Seattle Mariners. The Venezuelan wouldn’t see real minor league action until 2004, when he debuted at A+ ball. He acquitted himself quite well, going .310/.393/.443.

The following year he played entirely at AA ball. He was 21, but didn’t flash a ton of promise (.258/.330/.393). He also hit only nine homers and stole only six bases. What’s worse, he was caught stealing 11 times.

Not surprisingly, the Mariners made Guzman repeat AA in 2006. Now 22, he had to get his mojo going. Unfortunately, 2006 looked a lot like 2005: .257/.335/.382 with nine homers and seven steals (albeit he was only caught three times).
At 23, Guzman was going backward, as the Mariners kept him at A+ ball for the duration of 2007. He played well, but, at that age and repeating such a low level, the success was almost meaningless. On October 29, 2007, he was granted free agency.

He wouldn’t be a fish out of water for long, as Billy Beane and the Oakland Athletics scooped him up on November 16. He spent the majority of his time at AA for the Athletics and played quite well: .364/.419/.560 with 14 homers. After 80 games at AA, the A’s promoted him to AAA, where things stalled out once again: .237/.281/.373.

Guzman again found himself a free agent on November 3, 2008. However, he wouldn’t wait long, as he signed a contract with the team across the bay just 15 days later. Guzman destroyed the ball in Spring Training for the Giants and showed much prowess as a 25-year-old in the Pacific Coast League (.321/.379/.507). He earned a quick cup of coffee with the Giants but didn’t do anything outstanding in just 20 plate appearances.

Unfortunately for Guzman, the Giants brought in a slew of veterans to clog the corners and he spent the entirety of 2010 in AAA (where he looked pretty good: .321/.376/.510).

Before 2011, with Brandon Belt on the way and Aubrey Huff inked to a two-year deal, Guzman was again granted free agency. But the Padres waited just 14 days to sign Guzman. If you are scoring at home, during his migration down the coast, Guzman never spent more than 18 days as a free agent after signing with the Mariners as a 16-year-old.

With Adrian Gonzalez gone and a couple of corner prospects in Kyle Blanks and Anthony Rizzo that were likely a bit away from the majors, the Padres started Guzman off in AAA in the Pacific Coast League. While it is a notorious hitter’s haven, you can’t doubt the success Guzman had: .332/.423/.529 with eight homers in 63 games.

Sure, he was repeating the league and he is now 27 years old, but dude could rake and deserved a shot. Well, on June 17, at Minnesota of all places, Guzman got the start. He went 2-4, but wouldn’t get full time duties for some time. However, by the end of June, in 30 plate appearances, Guzman had a .310/.333/.552 line.

Still splitting time throughout July, Guzman got better: going .345/.400/.636 in 60 plate appearances. And he hasn’t slowed down in August, getting a hit in 10 of 11 games he has appeared in.

I love the Jesus Guzman story. I love that I own him in a bunch of deep leagues and you should too. While he likely won’t maintain his .371 BABIP, his 20.9% line drive rate and 12.5% HR/FB rate aren’t flukes. He swings and misses a good chunk and doesn’t walk a lot, but his power is real and sustainable. I see no reason why he can’t finish with an average around .325, a sweet .355 OBP, and a nice .510 slugging percentage. At least five more homers seem like money in the bank. Buy the Guzman stats and buy the story, grab him now.

Dexter Fowler – Fowler, born four years and nine days after me, was a 14th round selection in the 2004 draft. He’d appear in 62 games in rookie ball in 2005 and look decent enough (.273/.357/.409) to earn a promotion the following season to A ball.

And Fowler shined (.296/.373/.462) with 43 steals albeit in 66 attempts (not the best success rate). Still, going into the following year, 2007, Fowler was rated the #48 best prospect.  Unfortunately, Fowler suffered injuries to his right hand and appeared in just 65 games at A+ ball. He looked good, but took a step back to #74 in the prospect rankings.

However, that didn’t stop the Rockies from promoting him the following season. In 2008, in his first taste of AA, Fowler went .335/.431/.515 and earned his first espresso in the majors. He made his debut the same day he earned his call up and pinch ran in the bottom of the 10th inning against the Giants. Unfortunately, he was picked off first base.

Still, going into 2009, he was ranked the #15 best prospect and spent the majority of the season in the majors going .266/.363/.406 with 27 steals in 37 attempts. He posted a reasonable walk rate (12.9%) but his .351 BABIP was a tad dangerous (even though it was paired with a 21% line drive rate).

Clearly, it seemed like the groundwork was laid for a 2010 season full of stolen bases. Unfortunately, his walk rate dipped, his ground balls increased, his BABIP fell to .328 and his OBP dropped to .347. This resulted in just 13 steals in 21 attempts – a horrible ratio for a no-power guy.

Going into 2011, Fowler was an afterthought in a crowded and star-studded Rockies lineup. However, he has generated a .265/.366/.401 line (eerily similar to 2009). But if you check underneath the hood, while his line drive rate has increased slightly over the past two years, he is striking out more and his BABIP is .377. What’s worse, Fowler is just 8/16 in stolen base attempts.

Still, there is room for optimism. Over the last 30 days, Fowler has gone 30/92 with six steals and a .426 OBP. Sure, his BABIP over the last 28 days is .448, but you have to have skills to do that. Fowler is someone to keep an eye on down the stretch. If he can keep hitting line drives and figures out a way to steal successfully, Fowler could be a decent boon to your steals. In addition, I’d take this as an audition for your 2012 fantasy squad. I believe in Fowler long-term.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – I’m about to tell you something I bet you didn’t know. Salty has the longest last name in the illustrious history of Major League Baseball. The inability to spell/pronounce his surname didn’t hinder his draft potential, as he was a first round selection by the Atlanta Braves in 2003, right out of high school.

He did some nice things, especially for a catcher, in his first two minor league seasons in rookie and A ball. However, he truly burst onto the scene in 2005, going .314/.394/.519 in A+ ball. Before 2006, he was the #18 ranked prospect. While he slipped a little in 2006 (hitting just .230/.353/.380) at AA, he was just 21 and, my oh my, look at that on base percentage – that’s tops.

Before 2007, he was the #36 ranked prospect. He said the hell with that ranking, I deserve a top slot. He murdered AA: .309/.404/.617 in 22 games. He earned his way onto a contending Braves team, where he would exhibit some chops: .284/.333/.411 in 47 games. He was 22 and a catcher. No wonder the Rangers coveted him (not to mention Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz and Matt Harrison). On July 31, he’d be traded along with the aforementioned trio to the Texas Rangers for Mark Texeira and Ron Mahay.

As an aside, that trade almost looks as bad as the Glenn Davis for Steve Finley-Curt Schilling-Pete Harnisch swap the Orioles did. It’s amazing that the Braves had enough minor league talent to not even skip a beat (for the most part) after that.

Back to Salty – he wouldn’t perform quite as well with the Rangers (.251/.290/.431) but his power increased and he finished with an impressive .266/.310/.422. We had our next Mike Piazza. Well, there’s a reason Mike Piazza has few equals. Salty would struggle with injuries and inconsistency in 2008, playing just 61 games in the majors. He finished with a .253/.352/.364 line, which isn’t horrible, but was aided by a .385 BABIP. The lack of power and skyrocketing K-rate (it was 32.3%) were definitely disconcerting.

Unfortunately, Salty continued his downward spiral in 2009. His walk rate plummeted, his Ks maintained and his BABIP normalized, resulting in a .223/.290/.371 line in 84 games. While his isolated power moved back toward his respectable 2007 number, he hit fewer line drives and fly balls and more ground balls – not a recipe for success when you run like a catcher and play in a hitter’s park.

Then, just two games into the 2010 season, Salty was put on the DL. When he was ready to come off, he found himself completely lost and in AAA. He struggled with the bat and with his throws back to the pitcher. The Red Sox swooped in with some cash and a few prospects and scooped Salty off the Rangers’ hands.  Salty did nothing for the Red Sox in 2010 and it appeared Salty’s star had fizzled completely, especially after a rough start to 2011.

However, he has turned things around in Boston. After 266 plate appearances, he has a 28.8% K-rate (which is a huge improvement) and has traded ground balls for fly balls – a smart thing to do in Fenway Park. While his walk rate hasn’t gotten to the double digit promise that seemed all but certain a few years ago, his .317 OBP is nothing to sneeze at from a 26-year-old catcher with a .209 ISO and .462 slugging percentage.

There is absolutely nothing crazy about Salty’s season. It will likely be the building block to a long and successful career. However, there is one underlying problem with Salty’s career today: his splits. He owns a career .274/.343/.447 line against righties but a .209/.268/.334 line against lefties. He hasn’t been much better this year.

Still, the Red Sox are smart enough to ensure he sees most of his at bats against righties. As long as Salty continues to take advantage of his home ball park and takes a few small steps in his pitch recognition, he could be a prime backstop for the next several years. If we’re looking at the rest of the season, I could see him being a top 5-7 option down the stretch. Certainly, McCann, Mauer, Napoli, Martinez (although look at his splits), and Carlos Santana will be in the mix as well.