Fantasy Baseball Advice

Minor League Review, Arizona Diamondbacks

November 04, 2009 By: Stephen Category: Fantasy Baseball Prospects 11 Comments →

Arizona Diamondbacks 2009 Minor Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America:
2009 (26) | 2008 (15) | 2007 (3) | 2006 (1) | 2005 (13) | 2004 (13)

Major League Record and Minor League Affiliates Records
MLB: 70 – 92 (NL West – sixth worst record in MLB)
AAA: 79 – 64 (Pacific Coast League)
AA: 66 – 74 (Southern League)
A+: 64 – 76 (California League)
A: 59 – 78 (Midwest League)
A(ss): 28 – 48 (Northwest League)
R: 40 –36 (Pioneer League)

The Run Down
Arizona has traded away seven top 17 prospects prior to the 2009 season (#1 – OF – Carlos Gonzales (Rockies), #3 – SP – Brett Anderson (A’s), #6 – 2B/SS/OF – Emilio Bonifacio (Nationals, eventually Marlins), #7 – OF – Aaron Cunningham (A’s), #8 – 1B – Chris Carter (Mets), #13 – SP – Greg Smith (Rockies), #17 – P – Dallas Buck (Reds)). The Diamondbacks have acquired copious amounts of talent through trades and have sent even more talent away in trades. The Dan Haren trade definitely depleted their top talent (Gonzales, Anderson, Cunningham, Carter (who was acquired for 11 days from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for Carlos Quentin), and Smith). Haren has pitched extremely well for Arizona, however, Brett Anderson pitched well for the A’s too – not nearly as dominate, but eight years younger than Haren. Trading the farm for essentially one player may not have been the best decision. Josh Byrnes, the D-Back GM since 2006 (which coincidentally is the year their farm talent was ranked number one), has traded, signed and created a team that Baseball America says, “… [Has] created a roadmap of how to tumble from the top ranking to near the bottom in near record time. Arizona has drafted conservatively, leading to a lack of power arms and bats, and traded prospects aggressively to supplement a young, talented big league team.”

To add insult to injury, one of the games top power arms and their top prospect for 2009, Jarrod Parker, is having Tommy John surgery. In the Scouting the Unknown article I wrote regarding Parker, he was just visiting Dr. James Andrew about his “’elbow tightness’ that caused him to be DL’d on August 5th.” Now he’s out for at least a year. If not for his injury, Parker would have been in the same boat next year as Tommy Hanson was this year. With a rotation of Haren, Brandon Webb, Max Scherzer, Doug Davis and fill-in fifth starter, the Diamondbacks would love to improve from within. Webb is a huge question mark, Scherzer still needs to learn how to pitch and not just throw, Davis should be a long reliever or a fifth starter. On the hitting front, other than Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds, this team has very few sure things. Is Miguel Montero the real deal? Was the 2009 Stephen Drew the real Stephen Drew? Who plays second base? Can Conor Jackson return from Valley Fever? How good will Gerardo Parra be and what do you do with Eric Byrnes? They have a ton of questions to answer this off-season. Here are some players that could help sooner rather than later:

Graduating Prospects
#2 – Gerardo Parra (OF), #23 – Clay Zavada (RP), #8 – Billy Buckner (SP), #3 – Daniel Schlereth (RP), and Esmerling Vasquez (RP)

Players in the Arizona Fall League
Pitchers – Bryan Augenstein | Tom Layne | Scott Maine | Cesar Valdez
Hitters – Brandon Allen | Pedro Ciriaco | Cole Gillespie

Players of Interest
Numbers prior to a players name are their prospect rankings according to Baseball America 2009. Additionally, deviating from previous articles, the “Players of Interest” section will focus on higher level players or players that may end up on the MLB roster at some point during the 2010 season.

Hitters
Brandon Allen | 1B | AA/AAA | 23 | .298/.375/.503 | 447 AB | 24 2B | 20 HR | 85:50 K:BB | .205 ISO
Once he was acquired by the Diamondbacks from the White Sox for reliever Tony Pena, he raked in Triple-A. He was called-up to the Majors on the 21st of August and hit .202/.284/.385 striking out 38.5% of his 104 at-bats (40:12 K:BB). With Chad Tracy or Conor Jackson as the competition for first base next year, Allen may get a chance out of spring. However, a June call up would be more likely.

#9 (@ MIL) – Cole Gillespie | OF | A+/AAA | 25 | .273/.372/.472 | 417 AB | 20 2B | 12 3B | 13 HR | 18/5 SB/CS | 98:65 K:BB | .199 ISO
Gillespie was acquired in the Felipe Lopez trade. Playing only a month at High-A, the Brewers promoted him to Triple-A because he played at Double-A all of 2008. He is a little on the old side for a top prospect. Nevertheless, hitting 12, 14 and 13 homers these past three years isn’t overly impressive, but paired with 18, 16,17, and 18 steals in his four years as a minor leaguer, he looks like a poor man’s Mike Cameron. That isn’t terrible, just not jaw dropping nor Braun-like exciting. He is sneaky boring like Shin-Soo Choo.

#14 – Pedro Ciriaco | SS | AA | 22 | .296/.319/.367 | 469 AB | 15 2B | 4 HR | 38/10 SB/CS | 71:16 K:BB | .070 ISO
Bad news, defense is still an issue.  Good news, his steal efficiency has improved. The majority of his promise lies in his steals and quick defense. He still has too many errors to be a defensive improvement over Drew and he will never hit like him either. However, maybe moving Reynolds to first base, Drew to third, and Ciriaco to SS eventually may prove to be a better defensive infield for the Diamondbacks.

Pitchers
#1 – Jarrod Parker | SP (RH) | A+/AA | 20 | 8.8 K/9 | 3.5 BB/9 | 97 1/3 IP | 3.14 ERA | 1.35 WHIP | .353 BABIP | 73.2 LOB% | 3.21 FIP
Here is an article about Parker rehabbing. The StU article lays him out pretty well. Keep in mind that he won’t be near the majors for at least another 18 months.

Bryan Augenstein | SP (RH) | AA/AAA | 22 | 7.2 K/9 | 1.7 BB/9 | 81 2/3 IP | 2.98 ERA | 1.04 WHIP
Great control, decent strikeout rates, and actually pitched in the Majors this year (17 IP, threw 45 2/3 IP at Double-A, 36 IP at Triple-A). Not sure why he wasn’t ranked this year as he pitched well at Single and High-A last year. So far this fall, he has pitched decent in the AFL – 9:1 K:BB in 7 2/3 IP, 10 H, 5 ER

#5 – Wade Miley | SP (LH) | A/A+ | 22 | 7.1 K/9 | 2.3 BB/9 | 128 2/3 IP | 4.20 ERA | 1.38 WHIP | 67.2 LOB% | 3.38 FIP
Offering three above average pitches, Miley’s biggest concern was sloppy command. He throws his fastball between 89 and 92 mph, a slider that’s his best pitch, and an average change-up. He threw 113 innings in 2008, and looks like he is following the Verducci rule.

Honorable Mentions
#26 – Leyson Septimo | RP (LH) | AA | 23 | 11 K/9 | 7 BB/9 | 56 2/3 IP
A lefty power arm that throws in the upper 90s but cannot locate his pitches. He had a 9.7 K/9 and 7.2 BB/9 ratios in 2008.

Winston “Ollie” Linton | OF | A+ | 23 | .295/.394/.399 | 491 AB | 28 2B | 10 3B | 1 HR | 28/14 SB/CS | 104:65 K:BB | .104 ISO
Strikes out way too much for a slap hitter. The steals are nice, and he hits the ball into the gaps well.

Josh Collmenter | SP (RH) | A+ | 23 | 9.4 K/9 | 3.4 BB/9 | 145 1/3 IP | 4.15 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 63.8 LOB% | 3.12 FIP
Marc Hulet mentions that Collmenter may actually be a bit better than his numbers state. Had the most strikeouts in the Diamondbacks farm system. Random fact, his hometown is Homer, Michigan. Arizona hopes that name doesn’t translate into any baseball stat.

Patrick McAanley | SP (LH) | A+ | 23 | 8.9 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 147 IP | 4.41 ERA | 1.42 WHIP | 71.9 LOB% | 4.08 FIP
Threw the second most innings in the Diamondbacks farm system and had the second most strikeouts. Important to note that he is a lefty in a system that lacks many left-handed arms.

Dan Taylor | SP (LH) | A(ss) | 21 | 11.2 K/9 | 2.8 BB/9 | 63 2/3 IP | 3.53 ERA | 1.19 WHIP | 72.2 LOB% | 3.03 FIP
After getting drafted in the 2009 draft (in round 21), he posted the best ERA, WHIP, and AVE against in the Diamondbacks farm system. He pitched as a starter and reliever. He also posted a 1.24 Ground out to fly out ratio. Keep an eye on this young man.

Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | R | 21 | .334/.408/.638 | 287 AB | 27 2B | 18 HR | 74:36 K:BB | .303 ISO
Easily posted the most impressive raw numbers in the entire Diamondbacks farm. Drafted in the eighth round of the 2009 draft, Goldschmidt absolutely raked, had good walk rates, but needs to reduce his strikeouts. I would expect him to play at High-A and Double-A next year.

Scouting the Unknown

August 26, 2009 By: Stephen Category: Fantasy Baseball Prospects 23 Comments →

Here is my claim to fame – Caleb Thielbar. He lived kitty-corner to my house and we played basketball together in high school (which he hated, but was recruited to play division one in college). Either way, he was a two star athlete in Minnesota and went to South Dakota State University for four years and was drafted by the Brewers this summer in the 19th round. Not that we were great friends, but we know each other and I will continuously watch him (hopefully) progress through the minors.   Enough with my narcissism and attempt to claim some fame.

Jarrod Parker | SP | Arizona Diamondbacks | DOB: 11/24/89 | 6-0 | 180 lbs | Bats/Throws: Right | ARI #1 prospect according to Baseball America
The Cube: Control (88) | K-Rating (93) | Efficiency (91)

Drafted out of high school as the ninth pick in the first round in 2007 from an obscure town in Indiana, Parker has since marveled hundreds, possibly even thousands, with his fastball that seems to zip out of his hand from an effortless delivery. What makes that fastball so special? Well, that would be how it is clocked anywhere from 94 mph to 98 mph without Parker straining his mechanics. He also throws a power slider and a tight curve along with a change-up. Up until this year, his slider was his go-to pitch with his curve lacking consistency. However, this year in an interview he stated that he regards both as good pitches and is comfortable throwing either – but the slider is still his out-pitch. In high school, he never needed to throw a change-up and thus only started to throw it in the minor leagues. Interestingly, he had great feel for the pitch and it’s at least an average to above-average pitch. Pretty impressive if you ask me. Scouts and coaches claim he has great polish and personally, he seems to be a natural. With comparisons to Tim Lincecum, he has a lot to live up to.

08 (A) 8.95 K/9 | 2.52 BB/9 | 117 1/3 IP | .61 HR/9 | 3.44 ERA | 1.24 WHIP
09 (totals) 8.8 K/9 | 3.5 BB/9 | 97 1/3 IP | 3.14 ERA | 1.35 WHIP
09 (A+) 9.95 K/9 | 1.89 BB/9 | 19 IP | 0 HR/9 | .95 ERA | .84 WHIP
09 (AA) 8.5 K/9 | 3.91 BB/9 | 78 1/3 IP | .23 HR/9 | 3.68 ERA | 1.48 WHIP

Coming out of high school really limited the number of innings that Parker could pitch in 2008 as the Diamondbacks kept a tight pitch limit. Consequently, he never pitched more than seven innings, and he only pitched to seven once in 2008. Nevertheless, he showed why he was drafted so high. Due to his diminutive size, some people were led to believe that he wouldn’t succeed in a starting pitching role. He has proved them wrong since (he has a Roy Oswalt, Lincecum, and an Ian Snell like build) and has pitched like the star Arizona believes him to be. The K-rates are pretty, and the walks just became an issue this year upon his promotion to AA. This could be caused by “elbow tightness” that caused him to be DL’d on August 5th this year which lead to a visit to Dr. Freeze’s office (aka, Dr. James Andrew). This is either a bad thing or a precautionary visit. I am hoping the latter because of his repertoire of fastball/slider combo. Think of it this way (and this is how my mind is thinking too): Josh Johnson vs Francisco Liriano. Johnson has a fastball/change-up combo and Liriano has a fastball/slider combo. Which one is having a better year this year? That is why I am a tad fearful. Take the injury away, and I am gaga over Parker, though not like Mary Jane (sorry, I couldn’t resist any longer. It’s been eating at me the whole article).

Josh Vitters | 3B | Chicago Cubs | DOB: 8/27/89 | 6-2 | 190 lbs | Bats/Throws: Rights | CHC #1 prospect according to Baseball America
The Cube: Power (69) | Speed (13) | Contact (38) | Patience (7)

Just like Parker, Vitters was drafted in 2007 out of high school, but with a ton more hype. Playing baseball in southern California must do that to you. After lengthy contact negotiations, much like Strasburg, he missed any chance of playing in the summer leagues. Thus, he played in some Short Season ball too (just 51 AB in both Rookie and Short Season play). Looking forward to the 2008 season and actually hitting the ball (.118 Ave in those 51 AB), Vitters hurt his wrist in spring training. He attempted to play through the pain, but eventually had a two month disabled list trip. Consequently, this caused him to play Short Season again with 259 AB and no more injuries to his wrist.

After two mediocre years of minor league play, Vitters has finally turned it around this year hitting for a slash line of .289/.320/.471; but why is he still such a promising prospect? He has a smooth swing with above average power and little defensive skills. He drives the ball to the gaps well, is extremely “coachable,” has soft hands, a strong arm, below average range at third base, and has been compared to Pat Burrell. For a number three pick in the draft I think I would rather have more qualities than what I just listed off. Either way, this is what the Cubs have in Vitters and here are his stats so far:

07 (totals) .118/.164/.118 | 51 AB | 0/0 HR/2B | 30 K% | 3.2 BB%
08 (totals) .322/.365/.495 | 273 AB | 5/28 HR/2B
08 (A-) .214/.214/.429 | 14 AB | 0/3 HR/2B | 35.7 K% | 0 BB%
08 (SS) .328/.365/.498 | 259 AB | 5/25/.170 HR/2B/ISO | 17.4 K% | 4.8 BB%
09 (totals) .289/.320/.471 | 400AB | 16/17 HR/2B
09 (A) .316/.351/.535 | 269 AB | 15/12/.219 HR/2B/ISO | 15.6 K% | 2.5 BB%
09 (A+) .237/.254/.328 | 131 AB | 1/5/.094 HR/2B/ISO | 13.4 K% | 1.6 BB%

I sure hope that his smooth swing keeps swinging away as he walks less, or about the same as Delmon Young. Folks, that isn’t a compliment. Matter of fact, those K-rates … those are similar to Delmon Young too. Some positives, he started to finally hit for power this year, both gap and fence power. Not to be a Debbie Downer or to have a Vitters Vendetta, but I don’t trust those peripherals numbers. Scouts predicted that he would be in the majors by late 2010 and that was before this season started. This is all speculation, but I would expect to see him in early 2011 actually. He needs to develop patience, but Baseball America relayed that the Cubs were waiting for him to gain some confidence in his hitting before making adjustments to his approach. I smell bust. Maybe by the end of the year and starting next spring I will think differently. However, at this point I don’t really see him making it the majors and if he does, succeeding.