June 1st is just around the corner. There are many prospects that are just waiting for that deadline for their major league call-up. From Ackley to Moustakas to Rizzo to Belt and Jennings, the fantasy world will clamor at their availability and set grandiose expectations for performance. Remember, ma’ always said rookie-nookie should be ingested in small doses to prevent statistical indigestion. If excitement last more than four hours, offer your fellow league mate a turn, just don’t let your eyes meet.
Eric Thames | TOR | OF: Was called up as of 5/16/11. See Friday’s Buy/Sell post, or read past the link for where I quote Grey, “If I were in an AL-Only league, I’d grab Thames for a little HBI (Hot Bat Injection), but he’ll probably strike out a ton and I’d hold for now in mixed leagues.” I’d concur, especially since his M.O. is power and strikeouts.
Jay Buente | FLA | RHP (AAA): Will start today, Sunday, filling in for the injured Josh Johnson. Has a career 9.4 K/9 with a 3.6 BB/9. At 27 years old, his prospect status isn’t very high, if at all. Throws a low to mid 90s fastball and split-finger that induces a fair amount of groundballs. With a 44:10 K:BB ratio at Triple-A this year, he could be quiet source of strikeouts.
Jordan Lyles | HOU | RHP (AAA): Doesn’t have the ceiling of Julio Teheran, or the sexy appeal of Micheal Pineda. However, Lyles’ ability to control his 88-93 mph fastball, low 80s slider and a strong cutter project him as a number three starter. His strikeout rate has dropped progressively at each level of the minors. Will be more valuable in real baseball than in fantasy-world.
Dustin Ackley | SEA | 2B (AAA): Report on May 17 is that Seattle’s brass want him to improve his defense before considering calling him up. GM Jack Zduriencik followed that comment up with an equally vague statement that he wants Ackley up “sooner rather than later.” So June? Has 12/12 potential over the remainder of the year; at second base, you can do much worse.
Brett Lawrie | TOR | 3B (AAA): Continuing on the quoting trend, Yahoo’s Blue Jay report stated, “Asked about possibilities [of] the regular third baseman, manager John Farrell said, ‘We’ve got three options there. (INF Jayson Nix, INF John McDonald and 3B/1B/DH Edwin Encarnacion.) And when Brett Lawrie comes up, there’s another one.’” Here’s hoping that everyone knows Lawrie-salt makes everything better, including fantasy line-ups.
Brandon Belt | SF | 1B/OF (AAA): Since returning to Triple-A, Belt has .373/.509/.602 in 83 at-bats with a 24:26 K:BB ratio and 11 XBH (4 Hr). His scouting report states he makes consistent contact and has good strike zone judgment with ability to make quick adjustments. Appears he just needs some more time to adjust to major league pitching and could provide a .300 average and 20 to 25 home runs.
Anthony Rizzo | SD | 1B (AAA): Continues to hit well (.325/.391/.650 in last 10 days), and looks poised for a June first call up.
Desmond Jennings | TB | CF (AAA): Starting to show power and the strikeout rates that come with it (31 in 152 at-bats). Nothing to be too worried about for the time being. With Sam Fuld continuing to regress and disappoint, look for Jennings to finally get an opportunity soon. Think .275 with 12 to 15 home runs and 15 to 20 steals for the whole year.
Zach McAllister | CLE | RHP (AAA): Josh Todd got the call-up to replace the injured Alex White, but Tood is a reliever. McAllister has been brilliant this year at Triple-A with a 7.3 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 52 innings and a 1.02 WHIP. That said, his stuff is mediocre and is an end-of-the-rotation starter.
Mike Moustakas | KC | 3B (AAA): Starting to heat up at just the right time. In the last 10 games, he has slashed .333/.413/.718 (39 AB). During this time he has 9 XBH (3 Hr) and is making better contact (5:5 K:B). Be forewarned, his tendency to swing often and frequently making contact should be noted. His swing is solid and is learning to lay-off the breaking pitches. Should be owned when called up.
Mike Montgomery | KC | LHP (AAA): Slowly improving upon a disappointment start of the year. It seems that every step forward is met with another step backwards. Last Saturday, he was rocked 8 ER in 4.1 IP and a 4:3 K:BB. On the 19th, he dazzled with 7 strikeouts and 9 baserunners in 7 innings. Pitches better at home than road, which makes sense as Omaha is a slight-pitchers park. I don’t expect to see him up until mid-to-late summer.
James Darnell | SD | 3B (AA): Continues to lace the ball at Double-A in San Antonio, which is historically a strong-pitchers park. Bolstered by a solid 19:29 K:BB ratio and a .299 ISO, Darnell is pushing hard for the case to be promoted to at least Triple-A. With a career .206 ISO, strong plate discipline and good contact skills, Darnell could be a solid play in deeper mixed leagues by the end of the year, and in the near future.
Paul Goldschmidt | ARI | 1B (AA): Paul Bunyan’s nephew go yard yet again. 15 home runs on the year. Please Arizona, dump Miranda and Branyan so Brandon Allen and Goldschmidt finally get an opportunity. (Rudy: Your Branyan wish came true but Miranda and Xavier Nady are still around….)
Exciting news on prospect fronts with the promotions of Julio Teheran and Eric Hosmer. There was also scary news for all Orioles fans as Manny Machado left a game on Thursday with a knee injury. He was later diagnosed with a dislocated knee cap. This puts a damper in his early season success at Single-A and will be placed on the seven-day DL with the expectation that he’ll be off next week. Other minor league news and highlights:
Clay Mortensen | COL | RHP (SP): Technically not a rookie, but was called up on Saturday to replace Esmil Rogers for today’s start. Personally would avoid even in NL-Only leagues.
Paul Goldschmidt | ARI | 1B: The Gold-rush continues as Paul has continued his country-strong campaign. He’s slashing .337/.487/.730 at Double-A with 10 home runs and a 17:27 K:BB ratio. With Brandon Allen still a road block, his promotion to Triple-A will be delayed.
Brandon Belt | SF | 1B/OF: Although it’s a small sample size, his .429/.537/.690 slash-line in 54 AB with 7 XBH (2 Hr) and 14:11 K:BB, ratio brings the excitement back. He’s striking out as much as he was in the majors too. It will only be time before he’s back.
Brett Lawrie | TOR | 3B: Early this week, the Blue Jays brass stated that they have been pleased with Lawrie’s early season. Even his shoddy defense – which has improved since the beginning. I’m starting to believe that come June first, the Jays will promote their top prospect.
James Darnell | SD | 3B: Reviewing his early season numbers (15 XBH (4 Hr) and a 14:23 K:BB ratio in 96 AB (.365/.483/.604) at Double-A) and career numbers (.305/.407/.501 in 1018 AB), I am led to believe that Darnell is another Kevin Kouzmanoff. For fantasy purposes, that’s far from a compliment.
Dee Gordon | LAD | SS: What do you call a strikeout slap hitter? Carlos Gomez? Sure, and they have a lot in common – good defense and strikeouts without good on-base skills. I still really like Gordon. His .303/.355/.364 slash line in 99 AB with 5 XBH (0 Hr) and 12 steals in 14 attempts are enticing. His defense is solid to hold a job, but his 20:7 K:BB ratio at Triple-A and inability to have value without the steals begs the question – Carlos Gomez at SS?
Mike Montgomery | KC | LHP (SP): The Royals are loaded, their fan base skeptical and fantasy players hoping catch the next big prospect. Montgomery has been underwhelming compared to early season expectations. Sans his first start in which he gave up 5 runs, he has pitched better but still struggles with control (24:19 K:BB in33 IP). Even with a positive GO/AO ratio (1.63 GO/AO) he needs to refine his command and control at Triple-A.
Danny Duffy | KC | LHP (SP): As for next Royal pitching prospect to target, Duffy has to be on your radar. With a 33:6 K:BB in 26 innings, he has been their best pitching prospect to date. He’s a flyball pitcher (.63 GO/AO ratio) and will struggle with home runs in the majors. However, his control and strikeout potential could land him as the AL’s Brandon Beachy.
Anthony Rizzo | SD | 1B: Here’s a follow up with a quieter name with as much upside as Hosmer and Belt for this year. At Triple-A, he has hit .308/.364/.615 in the last 10 games (39 AB) with 7 XBH (2 Hr). Overall, he’s slashing .393/.448/.741 with 20 XBH (9 Hr) in 112 AB and a 23:11 K:BB ratio.
Eric Surkamp | SF | LHP (SP): Hard to ignore 41 strikeouts (12 BB) in 26 innings, even if they are at Double-A and from a deceptive delivery. His MLB ETA was delayed due to a hip injury in 2010. If not for that injury he would be at Triple-A, knocking on the door for a MLB rotation spot
Matt Moore | TB | LHP (SP): See 1/8 inch above, remove the injury history and add that Moore is a dominate pitcher with a high ceiling. Currently at Double-A he has a 41:6 K:BB in 29 1/3 innings. Simply, a top two pitching prospect (Teheran is first).
Jean Segura | LAA | SS: Come September, Segura and Trout will be talked about like Moustakas and Hosmer. Just look (at High-A): 9 XBH (2 Hr), 13 steals in 17 attempts, 15:8 K:BB ratio and a .312/.361/.459 slash line in 109 AB. Plus good defense.
Shelby Miller | St.L | RHP (SP): The Cardinals top pitching prospect looks to be growing out of High-A soon. His 42:13 K:BB in 28 innings are exciting. Double-A should be in his near future (late May). A September call up is possible.
San Diego Padres 2010 Minor League Review
Overall farm talent ranking via Baseball America (2010):
2010 (20) | 2009 (29) | 2008 (12) | 2007 (29) | 2006 (29) | 2005 (27) | 2004 (25)
Record of Each Affiliate:
Majors: [90 – 72] NL West
AAA: [59 – 85] Pacific Coast League – Portland
AA: [68 – 72] Texas League – San Antonio
A+: [81 – 59] California League – Lake Elsinore
A: [77 – 63] Midwest League – Fort Wayne
A(ss): [32 – 44] Northwest League – Eugene
R: [20 – 35] Arizona Rookie League
The Run Down
After a serious run for the playoffs, the Padres just traded the face of their franchise (See Grey’s Adrian Gonzalez trade ramifications). Last year, the Padres traded Peavy for Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Dexter Carter and Adam Russell and this year they traded a slugging first baseman for pitcher, Casey Kelly, a first baseman, Anthony Rizzo, and the young center fielder, Reymond Fuentes. The encouraging sign is that they made their playoff push on the strength of their pitching and they have two pitchers on the cusp of the majors in Simon Castro and Cory Luebke, not to mention a few hitters named Jaff Decker, the newly acquired, Anthony Rizzo, and Drew Cumberland on the rise. The Padres are going to need Kyle Blanks, and/or another prospect, to step in and fill some big shoes left by Adrian Gonzalez (no one hit for over .800 OPS besides Adrian Gonzalez). Another thing to watch for is the workload of Mat Latos; his total innings increased in 2010 by more than 50 innings over the 2009 season. Clayton Richard is in similar territory since he increased his workload by more than 40 innings. This might mean that Simon Castro and Cory Luebke receive their major league call-ups sooner rather than later. Watch to see what the Padres do with first base in Spring Training. Blanks won’t be back for a few months. Without further ado, your 2010 Padres Minor League Review.
Graduated Prospects
#24 (RHP) Ryan Webb; (RHP) Ernesto Frieri
Arizona Fall League – Peoria Saguaros
Pitchers: (RHP) Brad Brach; (LHP) Steve Garrison; #20 (RHP) Craig Italiano; #6 (LHP) Cory Luebke
Hitters: (C) Luis Martinez; #30 (2B) Cole Figueroa; #5 (3B) Logan Forsythe
Players of Interest Hitters #4 Jaff Decker | LF | D.o.B: 2-23-90 | Stats (A+): .262/.374/.500 | 290 AB | 33 XBH | 17 Hr | .238 ISO | 5/4 SB/CS | 80:47 K:BB | .299 BABIP
In the brimstone depths of the sabermetric and scouting community, Decker would be washed away with the “Old skill-set” label as Decker has the prototypical nonathletic first basemen body (5’11” and 215 lbs), has great power, controls the strike zone and has good pitch recognition – skills that fall off fast (see: Mo Vaughn). Kyle Blanks is less of a road block than Adrian Gonzalez was, as I don’t see Decker staying in the outfield. Nevertheless, fantasy baseball is about the immediate impact, Jaff Decker isn’t going to win any defensive awards, but he has 25 to 30 home run power over a full – and healthy – season, which he was not this last year. In leagues where you use OBP, he can provide even more value. I’d imagine a June call-up if he plays well and is healthy, especially if this team falls out of contention.
#8 (via Boston) Anthony Rizzo | 1B | D.o.B: 10-8-89 | Stats (A+/AA): .260/.334/.480 | 531 AB | 67 XBH | 25 Hr | .220 ISO | 10/1 SB/CS | 132:61 K:BB | .293 BABIP (A+); .297 BABIP (AA)
Brought over in the A-Gon trade, Rizzo offers some underrated first base value. Think Mark Grace. For more information, see his Scouting the Unknown article. ETA, out of the gate or June.
#11 Drew Cumberland | SS | D.o.B: 1-13-89 | Stats (A+): .365/.404/.542 | 249 AB | 25 XBH | 7 Hr | .177 ISO | 20/9 SB/CS | 34:15 K:BB | .398 BABIP
I toyed with writing a Scouting the Unknown article for him all year. Alas, I had to hold off. Injuries not withstanding, Cumberland is a tremendous talent; good defensive reflexes, but looks to be a second basemen long term, strong contact skills, slightly-above average strike zone control, and good speed. However, the injuries – hand, strained hamstring, a pulled ribcage muscle, a jammed finger, and a quadriceps strain – plagued him prior to the 2010 season. This year he had a “severe laceration on his left knee,” from, “chasing a ball against a concrete wall this weekend in Midland, Texas,” causing him to be out for the remainder of the season. He’ll start at Double-A in 2011. Similar skills to other MI’s, but could be have 15/30 potential. That is his high side. Low-side, Ryan Theriot.
#3 James Darnell | 3B | D.o.B: 1-19-87 | Stats (AA): .265/.348/.408 | 373 AB | 32 XBH | 10 Hr | .143 ISO | 2/0 SB/CS | 64:44 K:BB | .295 BABIP
Darnell has a good feel and control of the strike zone along with “natural hitting abilities.” He generates plus-power from core strength and good bat speed. Although he has a strong arm, his defensive is sketchy. Some scouts believe he could play second. Has good potential, but may be a late bloomer. May get a shot in September 2011, possibly sooner, but don’t quote me.
Mike Baxter | RF/1B | D.o.B: 12-7-84 | Stats (AAA): .301/.382/.517 | 482 AB | 58 XBH | 18 Hr | .216 ISO | 22/10 SB/CS | 78:58 K:BB | .326 BABIP
There isn’t a scouting report from Baseball America, John Sickels or Keith Law. However, I see him challenging for a spot during Spring Training. Clark has some speed that most first basemen wouldn’t have (10 triples and 22 steals); he does play the outfield as well. He did receive nine (9) nondescript plate-appearances in the majors. He has some power, good plate discipline and average speed. He’s probably more of a “tweener” – Quad-A type player – who could provide value as a fourth outfielder.
Pitchers #6 Cory Luebke | LHP | D.o.B: 3-4-85 | Stats (AA/AAA): 6.9 K/9 | 2.3 BB/9 | 114 IP | 2.40 ERA (AA); 2.97 ERA (AAA) | 2.87 FIP (AA); 3.91 FIP (AAA) | 1.28 WHIP | .6 Hr/9 | 6.6 H/9 | .253 BABIP (AA); .233 BABIP (AAA)
Throws a 90 to 92 MPH fastball, a solid slider and a mid 80s changeup. He projects as a number three starter in the majors. He threw 56 1/3 innings at Double-A and 57 2/3 innings at Triple-A along with 17 1/3 innings at the major league level. He was aided by an extremely low BABIPs in the minors and I wouldn’t expect that to carry over to the majors, subsequently, his ratio stats may dip. In the minors, his career K/9 rate was 7.5 along with a 2.1 BB/9 rate. In the majors, those 17 odd innings, he posted a 9.1 K/9 and a 3.1 BB/9 rate but gave up three home runs during his short stint. I would imagine somewhere near a 7 K/9 with good control – 3.0 BB/9 – during the 2011 season in the majors. Look for him to win a spot out of Spring Training.
#2 Simon Castro | RHP | D.o.B: 4-9-88 | Stats (AA): 7.4 K/9 | 2.5 BB/9 | 129 2/3 IP | 2.92 ERA | 3.32 FIP | 1.10 WHIP | .6 Hr/9 | 7.4 H/9 | .277 BABIP
Castro is one of the several exciting pitching prospects for the 2011 season. His peak fastball notches between 95 and 96 MPH (a drop of the 2009 report of 97 to 98 MPH), but typically throws his fastball between 92 to 93 MPH with good “life” down in the zone. Castro’s strikeout rate dropped from a career rate of 9.1 K/9 to 7.5 K/9 this past year, but his control improved from a career mark of 3.2 BB/9 down to 2.5 BB/9. His seasons at Double-A produces a lot of excitement for the 2011, however, during his brief appearance at Triple-A, Castro struggled to the tune of 5.2 K/9, 5.2 BB/9, 13.9 H/9 in 10 innings. Baseball America predicts Castro to be a number three starter or a top closer. See Scouting the Unknown article for more details.
#2 (via Boston) Casey Kelly | RHP | D.o.B: 10-4-89 | Stats (AA): 7.7 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 95 IP | 5.31 ERA | 4.03 FIP | 1.61 WHIP | .9 Hr/9 | 11.2 H/9 | .366 BABIP
Grey went over his expectations of Kelly’s fantasy value last week. What does Kelly provide? A fastball that tops out between 93 to 94 MPH but is worked around the 89 to 92 MPH range with good sinking and cutting action. He also throws an “above-average changeup … a 12-to-6 curveball with plus-potential.” Baseball America calls him a “frontline starter,” and John Sickels says nothing on his long term outlook besides calling him a “B+ prospect.” Could he be a right-handed Barry Zito? Wouldn’t surprise me. Of course, I mean the Oakland years.
Honorable Mention Hitters #29 Matt Clark | 1B | D.o.B: 12-10-86 | Stats (AA): .269/.339/.485 | 499 AB | 51 XBH | 28 Hr | .216 ISO | 0/0 SB/CS | 146:47 SB/CS | .322 BABIP
Clark is getting a brief mention because he could get an extended look in Spring Training due to his power potential. He has a long swing (note the strikeouts) but tremendous power. According to John Sickels, “Scouts still wonder how his swing will work once he gets to Double-A, and we should find out about that out in 2010.” It went about as well as he expected (reduced average and OBP after leaving the friendly confines of the California League). Not athletic, nor fast enough to play the outfield, where his strong arm would play well, Clark’s plus-plus power projects better in the American League. Clark could provide some intriguing darkhorse power in the majors, albeit with a horrendous average.
#7 (via Boston) Reymond Fuentes | CF | D.o.B: 2-12-91 | Stats (A): .270/.328/.377 | 373 AB | 25 XBH | 5 Hr | .107 ISO | 42/5 SB/CS | 87:25 K:BB | .338 BABIP
Because everyone will ask; Fuentes, cousin of Carlos Beltran, is compared to Johnny Damon. Baseball America states he has a “polished bat … plus-plus speed … Gold Glove defense … contact swing … working on base stealing.” Sickels repeats much of the same information but notes his strike zone judgment is lacking. Another comparison would be Jacoby Ellsbury. He has 10 to 15 home run power potential, along with 50 steals potential to be combined with a decent average (.290 to .310). His ETA would be 2012 at the earliest.
Pitchers Erik Davis | RHP | D.o.B: 10-8-86 | Stats (A+/AA/AAA): 8.4 K/9 | 3.0 BB/9 | 143 IP | 3.52 ERA | 3.20 FIP (A+); 2.74 FIP (AA); 4.20 FIP (AAA) | 1.27 WHIP | .4 Hr/9 | 8.4 H/9 | .340 BABIP (A+); .269 BABIP (AA); .220 BABIP (AAA)
I truly wanted to list him in the group above, but he only threw 44 1/3 innings about High-A with 39 1/3 of those innings at Double-A. Davis pitched well in a hitter-friendly league at High-A, and only improved from there. His scouting report is lacking due to BA and John Sickels not listing him in their handbooks. He was old for his league, but still has some potential for value due to the strikeouts and the seemingly sustainable ratios. Look for him to return to Double-A in 2011 with a late-summer or injury call up.
Juan Oramas | LHP | D.o.B: 5-11-90 | Stats (A+): 9.6 K/9 | 2.8 BB/9 | 84 IP | 3.00 ERA | 3.71 FIP | 1.07 WHIP | 1.1 Hr/9 | 6.9 H/9 | .269 BABIP
Oramas is like Davis – lacking insider scouting. He benefited by having a low BABIP, but his high-strikeout rate, control, low amount of hits, and his age would lead me to believe he could rise up the prospect rankings in the next two years. One negative would be the rate of home runs (1.1 Hr/9) allowed and the length of his starts (~4 innings per start; 21 starts in 84 innings, with five relief appearances in 15 innings at Single-A).
Evan Scribner | RHP | D.o.B: 7-19-85 | Stats (AA): 11.0 K/9 | 2.0 BB/9 | 66 IP | 2.59 ERA | 2.84 FIP | 1.00 WHIP | .8 Hr/9 | 7.0 H/9 | .300 BABIP
Scribner etched out 16 saves for the Padres Double-A affiliate, his second year at this level. He has middle reliever (read: mop-up reliever) written all over him. Could provide nice ratios if given the chance. Remember, Luke Gregerson wasn’t a heralded prospect and is now a bullpen stalwart. Maybe, just maybe, Scribner could have some Gregerson-like success.
The Padres, sans Peavy, are Adrian Gonzalez’s team. Too bad beyond him there are only a few stars ready for the additional limelight. Don’t get me wrong, there is plenty of young talent already in the majors (Mat Latos, Kyle Blanks, Chase Headley, Everth Cabrera, Tony Gwynn Jr., Clayton Richards, Wade LeBlanc, and Kevin Kouzmanoff). However, this talent will be heavily relied upon unless the Padres spend some more money. Considering Peavy was traded to save money, I highly doubt that this will happen. There are also rumors swirling around that Bell may be traded. Additionally, Kevin Towers was fired as the general manager, however, leaving a pretty rosy situation for whomever they hire as their new General Manager. There is plenty of salary space, a 2008 draft class that is performing out of their mind (they did have a record of 94 and 36 – a 2.5 wins to ever loss), tons of young talent that will be cheap for years to come, and Gonzalez. This 2008 draft class has four players taken between the first and second rounds that had great seasons this year (James Darnell, Jaff Decker, Allan Dysktra, Logan Forsythe – and they are all hitters). The new GM will definitely still have to decide whether Adrian Gonzalez should be traded to open up first base for Blanks (would be a bad move as Gonzalez has taken a leadership role in the clubhouse); trade Kouzmanoff so Headley could play his natural position; and/or trade Bell. I am not going to speculate for there are other authors/bloggers/columnists who will do that.
You will notice that the Padres had an above-average ranking in 2008 and free falling to the bottom. Why? According to Baseball America, it was a combination of top prospects graduating (Nick Hundley and Headley), and several top prospects, especially pitchers, having terrible seasons in 2008 (Matt Antonelli [2B] went from #2 to #9; LeBlanc [SP] from #4 to #12; Drew Miller (SP) from #5 to #26; Steve Garrison [SP] from #6 to #22; and Will Inman [SP] from #7 to #18) and their 2004 first round draft pick Matt Bush [SS] has been an utter failure. The trade of Peavy returned several top 30 pitching prospects from the White Sox farm system (Aaron Poreda [LHP] #3; Clayton Richards [LHP] #5; Dexter Carter [RHP] #23 (who had the best fastball in Chicago’s farm); Adam Russell [RHP] #27), granted only Richards paid dividends this year while the others struggled mightily in the minors once they were Padres’ property. The trade of Scott Hairston to the Athletics brought in a couple of young right-handed power arms in Ryan Webb and Craig Italiano (with a player to be named later that ended up being Sean Gallagher). Italiano had some major injuries (labrum surgery on right shoulder in ’06 and a skull fracture in ’07) but has recovered and Webb is a bit unrefined but received a September call up. Only time will tell if these trades will benefit the Padres, other than saving them money of course.
Players of Interest
The players closest to the majors have either entered the majors (Latos, Blanks, Venable, etc.) or they aren’t worth mentioning. Antonelli was terrible this year at Triple-A and Kulbacki was just as poor at Double-AA. Thus, many of their top prospects that performed well are in the low minors.
Simon Castro | SP | A | 21 10.2 K/9 | 2.4 BB/9 | 140 1/3 IP | 3.33 ERA | 1.11 WHIP
Baseball America’s breakout prospect (ranked #14) pulled through with that prediction throwing a dominating slider and fastball that peaks at 97-98 mph that averages between 92 to 95 mph. He improved his walk rate and control while keeping his strikeouts near his prior performance. Look for him to start in High-A with a quick promotion to Double-A and a possible promotion to Triple-A or the majors by mid-August. I could see him doing really well again next year (as long as he continues to induce ground balls against righties (47.6GB% vs RH), but does have a pretty decent rate of 39.8 GB% overall and keeps his control in check).
Jaff Decker | OF | A | 19 | in 258 AB – .299/.442/.514 | 25 2B | 16 HR | 92:85 K:BB | ranked #3
Other than having an awkward first name, Decker had an awesome year. I am not even sure where to start with this lefty hitting youngster. His numbers are helped by having other top hitting prospects Darnell and Dykstra hitting around him too. He has tremendous plate awareness, plus power “potential” and a stellar arm (think low 90′s fastball). Oh, did I mention he turns only 20 in February? He should moved up to High-A and reach Double-A by mid-June if all goes well.
James Darnell | 3B | A/A+ | 22 | @A in 222 AB – .329/.468/.518 | 17 2B | 7 HR | 51:57 K:BB | @A+ in 235 AB – .294/.377/.533 | 18 2B | 13 HR | 38:30 K:BB | ranked #10
Looks like Kouzmanoff and Headley better start hitting or Darnell (ranked #10) may sneak up on them. With good plate discipline, a plus runner, average range at third, a strong arm, and the ability to play RF if the Padres see fit, Darnell’s future is looking brighter. Additionally, he was one of three South Carolina players taken in the 2008 draft (after Justin Smoak and Reese Havens), but Baseball America says some consider him the better athlete with more potential.
Allan Dykstra | 1B | A | 21 | in 411 AB | .226/.397/.375 | 22 2B | 11 HR | 103:102 K:BB | ranked #8
Looks like Jack Cust has a new competitor in the strikeout-walk-homer triad competition. Well, that is if Dykstra can learn to hit more homers. He has something called avascular necrosis of the hip which is a condition that results in the hip joint not receiving blood. The result is pain in the groin, butt and down the front of the thigh. Eventually stiffness of the joint (hip in this case) or a limp while walking will occur and the long term effect is interference with sleep. He got this condition from falling during a basketball game. Pretty freak incident. However, that happened before he was drafted last year, but one must remember that this is a degenerative disease. He hit for average in college, has great zone control but does strikeout quite frequently, has good power, poor swing mechanics with his lower body, below average defender, runner and athlete. Looks better fit for an AL team.
Logan Forsythe | 3B | A+/AA | 21 | (totals) in 480 AB – .300/.429/.440 | 22 2B | 11 HR | 111:102 K:BB | ranked #11
He has had several injuries, but this year he was scrap free. He has a “short, compact swing; good defense; and an above average arm.” Supposedly, he won’t develop tons of homer power but great gap power as he has a natural line-drive swing. He didn’t do amazing like Jaff Decker, but he was pretty solid. As with most young hitters, he struggled at Double-A and will probably open there again.
Sawyer Carroll | OF | A/A+/AA | 23 (totals) in 479 AB – .317/.413/.489 | 40 2B | 9 3B | 8 HR | 19/9 SB/CS | 106:80 K:BB
Stellar name, tons of gap power, decent speed on the base paths but needs to be more efficient. Granted there is a small sample size, he never hit below a .316 average (A), a .402 on-base percentage (A+), and a .438 slugging percentage (AA) [.316 /.410/.464 (A), .320/.402/.531 (A+), .317/.440/.488 (AA)]. I am going to assume he will make Baseball America’s rankings this year as top 30 Padres prospect. He is a bit old to be a stellar prospect, but he still has some potential to surprise. Plus, with the year he had, his age now matches the level of play he should be playing in – Double-A, and should open there in 2010 season.
Wynn Pelzer | SP | A+ | 23 | 8.8 K/9 | 3.5 BB/9 | 150 2/3 IP | 3.94 ERA | 1.28 WHIP
Threw 32 more innings than last year, improved his strikeout rate, regressed in his walk rate, but overall had a pretty good year. He doesn’t change speeds well, throwing his fastball between 93 and 95 mph, possesses a hard biting slider, and a poor change and splitter. Long term he looks better as a power reliever in the mold of a Brad Lidge. Look for him to move in the Double-A rotation with a September call up as a reliever.
Cody Decker | OF | R | 22 | in 198 AB – .354/.421/.717 | 21 2B | 15 HR | 42:19 K:BB
Not sure if Jaff[y] and Cody are brothers — couldn’t find it on the internet. Did find out Cody had 47 homers in college at UCLA playing first base and was drafted in the 22nd round this year. Matter of fact, he hit 36 homers this year alone if you combine his college homers and Rookie league homers (though that is a poor thing to do). Just look at his Cube ratings. He is doing pretty well for himself so far. He should start at Single-A next year.
