What if we’re all living inside a Boston masshole’s dream?  This is Inception, and we all fell asleep sometime after Tom Brady was drafted, but before the Patriots won their first Super Bowl.  Then, due to some plantains you ate before you went to sleep, the Red Sox grabbed David Ortiz from Minnesota for nothing, and you got a kidney stone and were peeing blood but it all came out on Curt Schilling’s sock, and the Red Sox won the World Series, and then, because you fell asleep to The Apprentice, Trump became president, and now Andrew Benintendi goes 5-for-5, 1 run, 1 RBI, hitting .347.  This has to be possible, doesn’t it?  What if our world is like Herman’s Head, but we’re inside Prospector Ralph’s head?  Is Somalia in a famine because Prospector Ralph is too worried about Rick Porcello and forgot to eat?  Eat, Ralph!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

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Joining Paul Hollywood at The Great Britton’s Brach Off is Orioles’ manager, Buck Showalter.  Showalter said, “Craig Gentry (2-for-5, 3 RBIs) hit a home run with his leadoff Battenberg cake even if it is missing the mark on OBP, but I love its moistness, and I apologize for using the word moist.”  Trey Mancini (3-for-5, 4 RBIs, and his 3rd and 4th homers) was crowned this week’s Star Baker, beating out Mark Trumbo (2-for-5, 1 run), who was in the cleanup spot, saying, “Why do these people have to use so many pots and pans?”  The Great Britton’s Brach Off didn’t end without losing one baketestant.  Zach Britton over-whisked his meringue and left with a forearm strain.  The Brits are calling it, Zaxit.  So, Britton will be out for at least ten days with Brad Brach filling in, behind Brach will be Darren O’Day, who sounds too IRA to me, then behind him will be Mychal Givens, who is Mike Tyson and Robin Givens’ child.  Buck Showalter said he hopes Britton will be ready in ten days, but forearm strains don’t work that way, so you should grab Brach, at least.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

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I wonder if Freddie Freeman has Fletch-like dreams where he pictures himself with a huge afro and his name is Freddie World B. Freeman.  “He’s actually 6-5, with the afro, 6-9.  Pretty good hands, loves to hit ones deep.  His club is behind by three, and World B. Freeman drains a three-run homer!  Wow, was that some kind of hit.  You know this kid from the gritty streets of Orange County, California sure can play.”  By the way, gritty in Orange County refers to a Sonic Drive-In that has a B grade from the Health Department.  So, yesterday, Freeman put up those stats that I told you to pay a 2nd round price for — 4-for-5, 3 runs, and a double slam (1, 2) and legs (1), hitting .346 on the year.  I was truly perplexed how low I saw some people ranking Freeman in the preseason.  If anything, I think a stronger case could’ve been made to have Freeman ranked above Miggy, who was a consensus top 12 pick everywhere.  Guess Freeman could use the name Mr. Under-ranked when he sneaks into country clubs to visit Dansby Swanson (1-for-5, 1st homer, hitting .179).  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

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Boy, do we have a lot of games going today. I’m tired just thinking about it. Waitress another coffee please. Let’s cut straight to the good stuff ladies and gentlemen. I thought about getting cute today and suggesting someone other than Noah Syndergaard but then I remembered we’re all here to win money. This will be Thor’s first start at home this season and its a night game so expect the crowd to be there rooting on their ace. If you take a look at his career splits you’ll notice he loves pitching at Citi. One of the most important things to remember when playing FantasyDraft is to pick pitchers with a high K upside and a pitcher who is going to limit the runs. Thor comes in at a modest $22,800 and by modest, I mean most expensive. Cripes! Now let’s see if I can sell you on the most expensive pitcher of the day. Last season Thor finished 4th in k/9. Not sold yet? He finished 3rd in ERA last season. Still not putting him in your lineup? What if I told you he has the lowest o/u and is a heavy favorite to beat the Marlins. Okay I give up, don’t put him in your lineup (sarcasm).

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Me watching Lance McCullers:

The genius thing in that gif is the moment where Tom doesn’t seem like he knows which way to twirl the pool stick, looks about to mess up, and crack a smile, then spins and starts walking away.  Scorsese likely had cleaner takes, but it brilliant that he uses a slightly flubby take because the character Vince is so full of himself even when he shouldn’t be.  There were no such flubs in Lance McCullers’ start yesterday (6 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks).  May your God strike me down if this guy isn’t so butter that I Can’t Believe It’s Not Butter sees him and says, “You are more butter than I can ever hope to be,” then I Can’t Believe It’s Not Butter bows repeatedly, backing out of the room, saying, “Your butterness, I am not worthy.”  As I said repeatedly in the preseason, I was thisclose to putting McCullers in my top 20 starters overall, but his health deterred me.  Well, de-turd this, because he looks healthy and I wish I owned McCullers everywhere.  If he throws 180+ IP, he could be a top ten starter.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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So maybe the first day of a full slate didn’t go your way; the beauty of DFS baseball is that it is a daily grind. Tuesday offers an 8 game slate with some very solid pitching options such as Johnny Cueto, Carlos Carrasco, Lance McCullers Jr. and Matt Shoemaker. One young arm that stands out and could provide options to build around, though, is Sean Manaea. Priced only at $14,800, Sean allows you to pay up for some top bats. Manaea was the top Pitching prospect in the Oakland A’s organization last year before getting called up at the end of April. His season was the tale of two halves as he had a rocky start to his career. Carrying a 5.24 ERA through his first 12 starts, he was able to turn it around in his final 12 starts and recorded a 2.67 ERA, finishing with a 3.86 ERA for the year. The promising prospect looks to improve and become the Ace for the A’s. He is squaring off vs. the Los Angeles Angels on Tuesday night, an offense that can be neutralized. They ranked towards the middle of the pack in most offensive categories last season. Oakland is a -110 favorite and the run line is set at 7.5, not a lot of offense is expected. With that, lets take a look at the rest of the picks.

New to FantasyDraft? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!

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Before we jump right into this draft recap, let’s go over a little bit of background about the league and its details. This isn’t like the typical RCL 5×5 rotisserie league we often talk about in this space. LOEG is a 10×10 head-to-head keeper league, with 10 teams and four keepers per team from year to year. The league has been around for something like ten years and has been graced by the presence of yours truly for the past five.

Since the categories, scoring, and rules are a little different in this league I’ll break down all the details below. I think it’s important to break this down a bit first because not only do I want to bore you to death, but I want you to have all the information while you are going over the results and making fun of my team in the comments section. Anyway, here we go:

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The goal of a stat is to maximize it from the jump, and you could plan it that way even further on draft day.  There are certain pitchers that have a greater propensity to allow the stolen base, and exploiting that by originally drafting those players on draft day to get a jump on streaming isn’t an awful idea.  I used this feature multiple times  last year, so a preseason refresher is never a bad thing to prep you for the upcoming season.  The one bad theory that works against you when trying to stream is that some of these pitchers are fantasy stalwarts in the starting pitcher department.  The biggest name being Noah Syndergaard.  Because he is a good deterrent of actual OBPa, the stolen base becomes a risky proposition to try and gamble on with him taking the mound, most likely twice in the first six games. Because in actuality OBPa is a huge thing, because you can’t steal first. Picking on a pitcher isn’t the only way to go about it either as teams with poor catchers could also benefit you for the streaming guessing game.  The best thing here is that usually the first three days of the year have truncated schedules so picking and choosing your options could be the jump start you need to dominate a category from day one.  Here is a handy chart with last year’s stolen base totals, stolen base opportunities, and OBPa.  The three key factors to see who is easy to Winona…

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Go big or go home.  That’s not just what a casting agent says to men trying to break into porn, but it’s also how we have to attack these overrated for fantasy baseball posts.  I could’ve went Jacob deGrom, but he’s too easy to ignore.  He had kelp noodles implanted in his elbow this offseason for tendons, but can any man subsist on sea greens?  Nope, so you know a diet of meatballs is coming this summer.  You can’t only go kelp noodles; you’re setting yourself up to yo-yo; Oprah would’ve told him that; semi-colons are fun.  Jake Arrieta feels far less obvious of a CTRL-ALT-DELETE from draft sheets.  At least according to ESPN, where they have him ranked in the top 30 overall.  Coincidentally, as of the writing of this post, ESPN has Arrieta ranked right next to our other favorite battering ram boy (he’d love that nickname), Daniel Murphy.  But this isn’t about deGrom or Murphy or deGromurphy.  This is about Arrieta.  Oh, double negatives be damned, this isn’t about not drafting any starter as early as Arrieta is going.  I would not draft a pitcher in the top 30, but this is about Jake Arrieta.  Anyway, why is Jake Arrieta overrated for 2017 fantasy baseball?

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As I begin to prepare my projections and rankings for the 2017 season, I like to look back on the previous season’s attempt to not only assess my work, but also to learn how I can do better next time. Projecting statistics in any sport is a tedious and arduous task. The variables, formulas and algorithms are constantly changing and if you don’t adapt with them, your results will lose their precision and accuracy. However, I’d like to make one point blatantly clear, projections are nothing more than calculated guesses. Some are better than the next, but none are even close to perfect.

Let’s see how I fared with my 2016 efforts. For all positions I will provide the following six numbers: projected points, actual points, projected rank, actual rank, projected points per plate appearance and actual points per plate appearance. I am including points per plate appearance because it helps put a player’s projections vs performance into perspective when they’ve missing time due to injury. For pitchers I’ve replaced points per plate appearance with points per start. I’ve also included a column showing the percentage by which my points projections were off. Any player with an “n/a” listed in this column is because that player spent at least 30 days on the disabled list.

Lastly, a quick note about the rankings listed in this post. These rankings are based purely on points. This season I plan to provide additional rankings that allow me to adjust them based on three important factors: intuition, gut and my sporadic conversations with Nostradumass.

Please, blog, may I have some more?