Fantasy Baseball Advice

The answer to the pregunta, “Que es CarGo?” no longer requires an obligatory snail reference as he ended his 15 game homerless streak to start 2012 with 2 HRs against the Pirates, going 3-for-4 with 4 RBIs. He’s never going to hit .336 again like he did in 2010 (doubt he’ll ever hit .300 with his K-rate) but he is one of the few players that has legitimate 30 HR/20 SB potential. He had a similarly slow start last year before a great May/June (11 HR, 10 SB, .300+ AVG). If you can get a CarGo owner to sell low for a 3rd round or later OF like Jay Bruce or Adam Jones, sign that waybill or stick your hand in one of their many pockets or some other strained metaphor. Other fantasy baseball news….

Yu Darvish - Darvish out-samurai’d Kuroda with an 8 1/3 IP, 10K, 9 baserunner, 119 pitch effort against the Yankees. That’s 3-0 now for Darvish with wins against the Tigers and Yankees. Even better, he had only 2 BBs after entering the game with 14 walks in his first 3 outings. He has the stuff to put up 20 wins and 200 Ks but I’m not sold just yet that he’ll be able to maintain his control or hair color.

Johan Santana – Great start by Johan – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 11 Ks – that didn’t net a win because the Mets have yet to score for him in 4 starts. It’s hard to jump on board the Santanawagon based on his velocity to date (88 MPH on the fastball) but even a return of 2008-2009 Santana (8 K/9 and near 3.00 ERA) would be a nice return given his draft slot. Maybe they’d have more money to build around Santana if they paid him in Madoff shares.

Shin-Soo Choo - Left the game with left hamstring tightness – which was a relief (as a multi-team owner) as he was pinch-hit for with Jason Donald with the bases loaded. If he wasn’t physically hurt, that kind of thing would have to mentally hurt. He might miss a game but the Shin-Soo Choo train should be running again in no time.

Jair Jurrjens – Demoted to AAA after a ghastly first 4 starts – 16 IP, 30 Hits, 17 ER, 10 BB(!), 8 Ks. He’s not a great pitcher but he’s managed two very good ERA seasons (despite poor FIP) in 2009 (2.60 ERA vs. 3.68 FIP) and 2011 (2.96 ERA vs. 3.99 FIP). Or maybe he is just the living proof of Saberhagenmetrics and you should stash him for next year.

Josh Johnson – The Mets seem to be running a Slumpbuster service for aces – one day after giving Lincecum his first win in a WHIP-filled 5 innings, Josh Johnson threw a 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 9 K gem. He’s had a rough start in his first couple of starts (16 IP, 8 K) but his performance should be fine as long as he stays healthy. And a guy who jumps from the roof of a skyscraper should be fine as long as he remains airborne.

Andrew McCutchen – Finally some RBIs for the Dread Pirate! 17 singles and 3 doubles in 15 games resulted in only 2 RBIs to start the year but he got 3 RBIs last night on a groundout and 2-run double. I think the braiding session between him, Presley, and Tabata really paid dividends.

Tom Milone – Earned a win with an 8 IP, 3 hits, 5 K, 0 BB gem against the White Sox. He’s never going to be a dominant K guy but he’s turning into a must-start at least for home starts – even if his name reminds me of a loser’s MySpace friend list (yes, I know…what non-loser has MySpace….it’s creative license).

David Price – Complete game shutout against the Angels. He must’ve been mad at Arte Moreno for saying he wasn’t an object during the Pujols negotiations.

Mike Aviles - 4 for 5 with 2 doubles, a HR, 2 runs and 3 RBI against Nick Hackburn and the Twins. Aviles now has 3 HRs and is hitting well over .300. Not to mention the trifecta in position eligibilty (2B/SS/3B). Definite sell high candidate as he seems to have a meteoric streak like this every year and then falls down to Earth.

David Ortiz – Big Papi is hitting .444 with 3 HRs so far. He really seems to be physically and emotionally into the game.

Rex Brothers – The Rex Brothers tag-teamed on a few of our teams’ ERA/WHIPs with a disastrous 4 batters – double, single, double, walk – against the season-long slumping Pirates. That’s now two straight outings where he got no outs (so two straight ings?). Love his K potential and he might have an outside chance at the closer gig at some point….but he’s unownable in mixed leagues right now and near unplayable in NL-only leagues.

Hunter Pence - Put his owners and Phillie fans through the ringer the last couple days. Hurt his shoulder over the weekend, sat on Monday, had an MRI during the day on Tuesday, was twurmered (tweet murmur) to be sitting today, and then hit a 2-run HR at night. Way to put the Pence in suspense, Hunter.

Matt Wieters – HR #6. Take note – next time there’s a hyped catcher, just wait a couple years before drafting them high.

Tony Campana – Second straight 2 SB game for Campana – even if the 2nd was an AWFUL call. Cuz safe ain’t got no face either.

Max Scherzer – Not cool, Max. It’s one thing to get blasted by the Red Sox in your first start of the season but giving up 5 ER and 12 baserunners in 5 innings at home against Seattle is like a surprise nut punch.

Gerardo Parra - 3rd SB in 6 games for Parra. SAGNOF!

Chris Perez - That’s 7 straight converted saves for Chris Perez with only 1 ER. He’s anything but a sure bet this year (5 K / 4 BB in 10 IP this year) but, if I was Pestano, I’d pull a Delilah and cut his mullet in his sleep.

Vance Worley – A very impressive start (6 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks) on a night where the ball was carrying at Chase Field (5 HRs in the game). He’s now at about 163 MLB IP with 150 Ks and a 1.22 WHIP. I think I’m catching the VW bug.

Craig Kimbrel – Got the save after giving up 1 Hit, 1 BB, and, of course, getting 3 strikeouts. Can we start calling a 3 K inning for a save a ‘Kimbrel’?

Jose Altuve - The slam and legs for Altuve. That’s 3 SBs in the past 5 games. The .350 AVG is inflated by a lucky BABIP but Altuve’s showing an improved eye (same amount of BBs this year as he did in 3x the PAs last year) which should only help his runs and SBs. If only his last name didn’t make him sound like a terrorist.

Mike Pelfrey – There are murmurs that Pelfrey may have a partially torn UCL and be sent to Dr. Freeze for Tommy John surgery – or at least Sandy Alderson can’t ‘rule this out’. He’s like bizarro-Minaya – overreporting possible injuries vs. underreport confirmed injuries. “You know, Mr. Met may very well be a man in costume who drank too much nerve tonic and suffered the same ill effects as Ken Griffey Jr. in the Simpsons ‘Homer at the Bat’ episode.”

I watched Mat Latos yesterday.   Now I want an eye transplant with someone that watched Jamie Moyer pitch (not when he was first called up because that eye transplant would have cataracts).  I wish I could pinpoint what the problem is with Latos, besides looking terrible.  He was hitting 95 MPH on the maybe-a-tad-Reds-friendly radar gun for three straight pitches to Beltran.  Unfortunately, he threw all three friggin’ pitches in the exact same spot, so, of course, Beltran turned on one.  Then he made the next hitter, Holliday, look terrible with offspeed stuff.  Like a bachelorette order form, is there somewhere I can check for him to mix in the junk?  Does Mesoraco only have one finger on his pitch-calling hand?  Is Latos giving up early runs so Dusty can’t throw him into the 11th inning?  How do you even give up 5 earned runs in the first two innings on only 6 baserunners?  Is that even mathematically possible with only one two-run homer?  Why are you making me wrack my brain?  And why are you giving up a two out triples to the opposing pitcher?!  Latos gets the Giants next.  If he can’t make them look like a team that has only three hitters, and one of which they bench, then Latos is going to my bench for the foreseeable future.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Krispie Young – The MRI revealed a ligament tear and who wins this year’s Biggest Loser.  Damn you, MRI, and your spoilers!  Krispie’s headed to the 15-day DL and the Diamondbacks say he should be fine after a couple of weeks of rest.  With a ligament tear in his shoulder?  Sounds like they have a ligament tear in their silver lining.  This sounds like something that won’t only sideline Krispie for longer than 15 days but also leave him at less than 100% for the rest of the season until an offseason of rest.  It’s pretty terrible news.  Rico Suave should see the majority of the time in the outfield while Krispie gets himself right.  Parra’s pretty yawnstipating from a fantasy perspective for mixed leagues.  In NL-Only leagues, he should get you some counting stats.   (Wanna hear something that says so much?  I added yawnstipating to my computer dictionary.  It’s right there in my virtual dictionary next to dork.)

Justin Upton – Where is thumbkin?  Back from the MRI to say Upton needs a few days of rest with a bone bruise on his thumb.  He did get into yesterday’s game as a pinch runner.  Would be just wonderful if he had to slide head first.  Hope Kirk Gibson didn’t slo-mo arm pump that in-game move.

A.J. Pollock – 0-for-3 with a caught stealing.  How many players does it take to fill-in Krispie’s roster spot?  One Pollock.  He has good speed (36 SBs last year in the minors), but it’s not clear how much he’ll actually play.  Might just be a bat for a few days until Justin’s thumb stops being Upton no good.

Brett Gardner – To the DL with a strained elbow.  Huh?  What’s he running on his hands like Encino Man?  You don’t need an elbow to bunt and run.  Put your elbow in a sling and call it macaroni!  This kills my RCL team (well, Krispie’s loss kinda hurt that too), but how is there only one DL spot in the RCLs?  What were we thinking?  Guys (and 4 girls), talk some sense into me Charlotte sometimes, would cha please?

Hiroki Kuroda – 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 10 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Starts like these in The House They Built Across The Street From The House Ruth Built is the reason why I told people to not draft him.

Lance Berkman – Puma reaggravated his calf injury and might hit the DL.  Coincidentally, my Cougar’s out for a day or two with shingles.

Carlos Beltran – 1-for-4, 2 runs, 2 RBIs and a slam & legs.  That’s 5 homers and 3 steals.  Maybe he’s this year’s old player who comes out of nowhere and has a renaissance year.  How do we not have a term for this in the glossary?  Please suggest in the comments.  Thank you.

Brad Lidge – Davey Johnson revealed that Lidge suffers from vertigo.  Still waiting for Davey to choose a closer, or more accurately, to explain The Trouble With Henry.

Ivan Rodriguez – Announced his retirement.  Let’s remember the days when his nickname Pudge wasn’t ironic due to the banning of illegal substances that caused him to lose all muscle mass.  Pour some andro out for him.

Cliff Lee – 10 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks.  I feel like a ten inning game is more rare than a no hitter. (I probably could find out if that was true at the ol’ Google.)  Through 10 innings, he threw 102 pitches and 81 of those were strikes.  Let’s just say, The Adverb was more than suffixient.

Bartolo Colon – 8 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Lincecum who?

Matt Cain – 9 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Bartolo Colon who?

Brian Wilson – Undergoing Tommy John surgery today.  They’re still evaluating whether they hairnet his beard or if they have to shave it.  If they shave it, the surgery is due to end on Sunday and the homeless family of Lilliputians will need to be relocated.

Brandon Morrow – 6 IP, 6 ER, 11 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Walks really got him in this game…and the hits…and the runs…and the lack of Ks.

Mark Buehrle – 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Of course he pitched a gem.  Why wouldn’t he?!  Why would I want this kind of start from Latos?!  I must be crazy!  Yeah, still a little annoyed at Latos.  And another thing, if Latos didn’t seem so detestable of a personality, I might be able to let it go!

Joel Hanrahan – Tweaked his Hanrahammy.  Should be good to go by the weekend.  In his place…

Juan Cruz – Guess who has more saves than Jordan Walden and Heath Bell combined?  I grabbed Cruz in one league, then dropped him when I had to fill in for Gardner.  Cruz may not see another save all year.  If you’re very desperate, then specloselate.  (On a related note, I thought of what we can call a top closer’s set-up man, a side salad.)

Grady Sizemore – Cleared for baseball activities.  He’ll probably pull his groin scratching himself.  I’m only half-punning.

Juan Francisco – 2-for-5, 2 runs, 2 RBIs and his 2nd homer in as many games.  The Braves are committed to Glass Chipper like Aguilera should be committed for eliminating Jesse Campbell, but Francisco’s a good name to watch in deep leagues in case he can get more playing time.

Jair Jurrjens – 4 IP, 4 ER.  Can the editor who recut Star Wars take Jar-Jar out of the Braves rotation too?

Dan Uggla – 1-for-4, 2 runs, 2 RBIs with his first homer.  Still wanna sell him for Skip Schumaker and a bag of Fritos?

Luke Scott – 2-for-5, 4 RBIs and his 3rd homer.  Member I said last week to pick him up?  Yeah, nothing’s changed yet.

Matt Joyce – 3-for-5, 3 runs, 1 RBI and his 2nd game in a row with a homer.  If he’s gonna hit, it will be in the first half.  It’s Joyce to wit.

Justin Morneau – 3-for-4, 3 runs, 3 RBIs with his 3rd and 4th homers.  Only cussword his fantasy owners are hearing this year is refocused.

Matt Capps – 1 IP, 1 ER and the save.  Could he save a game without giving up a run?  Just a question.

Kevin Youkilis – 1-for-4, 2 RBIs with his first homer.  Youuuuuuuk, speaking through his agent, said, “Tell Valentine there’s his motivation.  And Sugarhill Gang invented the rap.  So there!”

Lucas Harrell – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Anyone with a rotation spot, you own in NL- or AL-Only leagues, so I grabbed Harrell in an NL-Only league.  Never looked at his stats.  Just grabbed him.  Then he pitched well yesterday for the second time in three starts and I was like, “Hey, this guy’s awesome!  I wanna see his minor league stats.”  So I Googled his name to see his minor league stats, and Googled asked me, “Are you sure you want to see his minor league stats?”  Yes, Google!  Give ‘em to me!  “Oh.”  That was my reaction after seeing his stats.  Um, yeah, I wouldn’t touch him in mixed leagues.

Aramis Ramirez – 2-for-4 with his first homer.  He’s alive!  I think.

Omar Infante – Out until Friday with a groin strain.  It happened when he was running away from Hanley carrying a bottle of hair dye.

Pedro Alvarez – 1-for-3 with his 2nd homer.  He’s batting .074 on the year.  To get results from Alvarez, the Pirates threatened him with a demotion to Triple-A or worse a trade to the Orioles.

Jake Peavy – 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 8 Ks.  Yes, you should own him.  No, I’m not joking.

A.J. Pierzynski – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs and his 4th homer.  When I say hot, you say schmotato.

Doug Fister – Felt renewed discomfort in his abdomen.  For Fister owners, that’s a punch to the gut.

Prince Fielder – 2-f0r-4, 2 RBIs and a steal as Major League Baseball tried to increase offense by moving 2nd base five feet from 1st.

Chase Headley – 3-for-4, 3 RBIs and TWO HOMERS?  He had two homers the entire 1st half last year, and two homers the entire 2nd half for four (stutterer!) total.

Michael Cuddyer – Homered then left Wednesday’s game with a bruised toe.  If Cuddyer needs to miss time, guess who gets some time?  No, not Eric Young Jr.  Tyler Colvin.  Could be some pop there.  Keep your eyes peeled in deep leagues.

Juan Nicasio – 6 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Eh, I’ve seen better starts.  Buehrle, for instance, that was better, but I’d continue to roll with Nicasio in most leagues.

Derek Holland – 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Kinda wish I had Holland instead of Latos right now.  Okay, I’ll let it go.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis – 3-for-4, 3 runs, 1 RBI and a steal.  I’ve seen some people in the comments ask if they should pick up Kirk.  Don’t cheat, Razzballers.  Ask if you should pick up Nieuwenhuis.  If I gotta spell that shizz, so do you.  And, yeah, you should pick him up.  Kinda like how I’ve been saying that in the last two weeks of Buys.  Yesterday, he hit leadoff.  That probably won’t hold, but Bay’s name is short for Sickbay, as in he hasn’t been good in years, and Duda hasn’t had much zippity, doo or dah recently.

R.A. Dickey – 4 1/3 IP, 8 ER.  More like U.R.A. Dickey.

In our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings, we’ve gone over so many flippin’ players I’ve lost track.  This is, I believe, the top 60 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball, but you’re best to check the title to be sure.   If it is indeed the top 60 starters, then you’re in luck.  Only a few more top 20 rankings posts.  What is it, February?  March?  Why don’t I have an app for this?  Or do I want a hashtag?  App ‘n Hashtag would be a good name for a 50′s style diner with wifi.  As with the other rankings posts, tiers and my projections are mentioned.  Anyway, here’s the top 60 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball:

41. Michael Pineda – This tier started in the top 40 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This tier ends at Wainwright.  I called this tier, “Might be fine, won’t be fine on my teams.”  I had already went over my Michael Pineda 2012 fantasy. That was before the trade to the Yankees when I was still eating some serious M-Pineda’s.  His projections then were 12-10/3.40/1.10/195.  I had him originally ranked 19th overall for all starters.  Now in The House They Built Across The Street From The House That Ruth Built, I’m slightly worried.  Much has been said about his Home/Away splits.  After the Montero/Pineda trade, some of it was said here.  He’s young so there’s plenty of time to see how well he adjusts.  For now, I’m going to let someone else take the chance on him.  What it really comes down to is it’s not very difficult to find solid starters, so there’s no reason to take unnecessary risk.  2012 Projections:  14-9/3.75/1.15/180

42. Adam Wainwright – The notes coming out of Spring Training can talk about how Wainwright did Tommy John surgery like Jon Stewart did Tucker Carlson.  Won’t matter to me.  I’m not going anywhere near him.  Someone would have to don a mustache and feathered hair wig and impersonate me in order for him to show up on any of my teams.  2012 Projections:  12-7/3.75/1.28/140 in 160 innings

43. Roy Oswalt -  UPDATE:  I wouldn’t draft Oswalt on any team now that he says he won’t play until midseason.  You can’t afford to roster a guy for more than half a season who you can’t even DL.  As of right now, it looks like Oswalt will sign with the Red Sox, which would make the most sense for both.  The Red Sox need a starter and Oswalt needs overalls and a tractor which the Red Sox would help pay for cause they need a starter.  See, both are happy.  Oswalt pitched well enough in the bandbox called Citizens Flank so I wouldn’t be worried about him in Fenway.  At this point in his career, he is who he is no matter where he plays.  2012 Projections:  14-10/3.65/1.22/140

44. Jhoulys Chacin – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Garcia.  I call this tier, “Guys that no one seems that excited about that I’ll draft.”  We’re solidly in the class of pitchers here that will probably be a solid number 3, which usually stands for the vomit you have while you’re crapping, but in this case it’s a fantasy pitcher that doesn’t compete for the Cy Young but can anchor your staff like a metal piercing.  As for Chacin, I think there’s an outside chance we get a number one starter out of him and I almost ranked him in the top 40 starter post.  What ended up having me rank him here instead is threefold.  First fold, his walks can be a bit obnoxious.  Two fold, his K-rate dropped last year.  Three fold, whoever heard of a three fold?  Do they have a threefold on your planet?  If Chacin can regain his K-rate and just reduce his walks by one per nine innings, you have yourself a top 20 starter.  All aboard!  Actually, all excited!  2012 Projections:  12-10/3.60/1.26/175

45. Trevor Cahill – When he went to the Diamondbacks, I said, “Even if his new ballpark is slightly more favorable for hitters, he’s got a solid sinker and he’s going to be facing the Giants, Padres and Dodgers, the Moe, Larry and Curly of lineups. I didn’t like Cahill at all the last two years, but I’m willing to reevaluate.  I’m not stubborn.  *through clenched teeth*  Fine, he looks draftable now!”  And that’s me quoting me!  2012 Projections: 12-10/3.60/1.35/160

46. Jaime Garcia – You want another thing this tier could be called?  Fantasy starters that should be around a 3.50 ERA, but aren’t going to strike out 200 guys.  After I said I didn’t like Wainwright or Carpenter, I was getting letters from the Vatican that I had something against Cardinals.  See, I like Jaime Garcia, so it’s not a Jew thing.  Though Dave Dinkins might think there’s some truth to the conspiracy since now I’m just liking a “Hymie.”  2012 Projections:  11-9/3.65/1.30/160

47. Neftali Feliz – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Holland.  I call this tier, “I have problems with Ranger starters.”  Arlington is basically the AL version of Coors and I’m not getting involved in that shizz.  Here’s what I said earlier in the offseason when it was announced Feliz would start, “His K-rate last year was a huge shambles or Suge Hambles if you roll with rap impresarios who are into spoonerisms.  I’m not sure how a closer could even have a K-rate of 7.80 with Feliz’s stuff.  I’m not just saying that to sound stupid, though it probably doesn’t hurt.  His fastball, curve and change were all the same velocity as previous years.  He added in a slider, but adding that shouldn’t have killed his shizz.  Hitters were just making good contact, or, at least, better contact and not getting as fooled.  His walks also went through the roof.  I mean, 30 walks and 54 Ks in 62 1/3 innings is terrible.  Who are you, Kevin Gregg?  But as we know from Dempster and C.J. Wilson’s transition to being a starter, Feliz is probably going to have the best year of his young career.  I’ll be on the outside looking in though, feels like too much risk to me.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2012 Projections:  10-6/3.55/1.20/95 in 120 innings

48. Colby Lewis – Last year he proved fresh off the bloat shouldn’t be restricted to Asians.  His K-rate and ground ball rate went down and his fly balls went up.  In Arlington, that’s basically standing on the balcony with coke on your nose, firing a machine gun at dozens of people who are firing back.  Ron Washington, “Must we mention coke?”  Lewis’s ERA ballooned to 4.40 and he was shot.  This year?  He’ll be slightly better, but I see no reason to stick my neck out for him.  He’s a pig that don’t fly straight.  2012 Projections:  14-11/4.00/1.20/180

49. Derek Holland – Holland is an interesting name in this tier.  Post All-Star break he had an ERA of 3.06 while pre-All-Star break was only 4.68.  Shows you that there’s some good Holland days and some bad Holland days, usually because of the whisking of the eggs.  I’m not convinced that he’s going to give you those post-All-Star break stats over the full year.  His September BABIP was .211, which helped give him a 2.20 ERA and bolster his 2nd half stats.  If he’s around late enough, I could see possibly gambling on him, but my pitchers I drafted before him will have to be less risky.  2012 Projections:  13-8/4.00/1.32/180

50. Justin Masterson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Hellickson.  I call this tier, “They got lucky last year.  If you draft one this year, you’re pressing your luck and may get whammied.” Most of the guys in this tier are ranked below where I saw them in most mocks and other ‘pert rankings.  If you see one of these pitchers going lower than I have them ranked, then you might want to gamble on one but they are due for a regression.  To put that more succinctly, I’d try to avoid these guys.  To put that even more succinctly, try to avoid.  Even more succinctly, avoid.  Most succinctly, av–.  Masterson had a 6.58 K/9 last year with a 3.64 xFIP.  Not terrible marks.  He gets a lot of ground balls, which is good, but, if he has just a bit of bad luck with those, his ERA is going to look ugly.  Worth avoiding on that risk.  2012 Projections:  10-10/3.85/1.32/160

51. Tim Hudson -  For full disclosure purposes — or porpoises, if you live in the sea — Hudson was originally ranked with Oswalt, but news just came out recently that Hudson may miss all of April due to his offseason back surgery.  If Hudson were younger, I’d consider an earlier timetable that says he could be back mid-April, but there’s no reason to take on an older pitcher who’s already hurting.  2012 Projections:  11-9/3.65/1.18/120

52. Doug Fister – His walks… His BABIP… His men left on base… His homers allowed… His uncanny ability to sing Kyrie from memory whenever someone calls him Mr. Fister…. They are all too good to be true.  I don’t think Fister will be unusable, but I also don’t think he’ll be a top 40 starter as most ‘perts have him.  2012 Projections:  12-10/3.85/1.18/140

53. Ervin Santana – He improved his walk and K-rate last year, but also got a bit lucky with his BABIP.  He’s a tough one to call.  He’ll either be a 3.75 ERA guy with around 180 Ks and 15+ wins, or he’ll be a 4-something ERA that just frustrates you from start to start.  I think it’s going to be more of the latter, if latter means the 2nd one.  Last year he threw a lot of sliders — more than anyone in the league and that’s reason enough to let someone else look to Ervin for magic.  2012 Projections:  12-12/4.00/1.30/170

54. Jair Jurrjens – If you’ve read this site for a minute (which is actually a long time if you go by the urbandictionary definition), you know how I feel about Jar-Jar.  You are just as likely to get his 2010 stats (4.64 ERA) as you are getting his 2011 (2.96 ERA).  Actually, that’s not true.  The stats say you should get a 4-something ERA every time out.  If you’re feeling lucky, then play the lottery and then go wash that Jurrjens right outta your fantasy team crosshairs.  2012 Projections:  11-9/4.15/1.35/100

55. Clay Buchholz – For any full season (which is very rare for Buchholz), he’s yet to have an xFIP under 4.  <sarcastic>Yay.</sarcastic>  He’s yet to have a K-rate over 7.  <sarcastic>Yippee.</sarcastic>  His walk rate for his major league career is 3.72.  <sarcastic>Terrific.</sarcastic>  2012 Projections:  10-6/4.25/1.30/125

56. Jeremy Hellickson – I saw Hellickson ranked around 30-ish overall for starters at other sites so I feel like I’m comfortable telling you to ignore him this late.  For some reason if he’s still around when you get this low into your draft, ignore him further.  Don’t go near him.  I’m not saying this because I was accused in the comments at the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball of being a Rays fan after my ranking of Longoria.  When are people gonna figure out that I don’t care about teams only about players?  I’m excited about McCutchen and Alex Presley, I don’t care about the Pirates.  I loved me some Matt Kemp last year, hated Andre Ethier.  The examples go on and on.  Sorry about this totally unfunny rant, but nothing annoys me more than being called bias.  I take this non-paying job way too serious!  As for Hellickson, his K-rate was 5.57 last year.  That’s good…For underhanded softball.  His xFIP last year was 4.72.  Sidney Ponson called and said stop stealing his xFIP.  Hellickson was lucky to not have a 6-something ERA last year.  Do not draft.  2012 Projections:  10-9/4.30/1.25/130

57. Jonathan Sanchez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes into the top 80 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “Holy crap, there were a lot of starters I didn’t like in this post.  Let’s see some names I like.  Please.”  Glad to be outta that last tier that is going to elicit so many comments of this variety, “Why rank Hellickson above Jonathan Sanchez if you’d draft Sanchez and not Hellickson?”  Jonathan Sanchez and other names in this tier are coming with a lot of risk.  I like them, but I’m not reaching for them until I see some other schmohawk draft Colby Lewis or Fister or Neftali or Hellickson et al (which is not the Israeli airline).  My projections for the players in this tier I like may even look better than some of the players above them, but there’s a lot of risk hurdles for these players to jump to get to those projections.  For instance, there’s a much better chance Hudson reaches his projections than Sanchez comes anywhere near his.  I like these pitchers, but they are flyers.  You should know there’s no guarantee with these guys.  They may be number two fantasy starters or they may be off your team by April 15th.  As for Sanchez, his nickname Filthy Sanchez is perfect for him.  It’s filthy as in good and filthy as in bad.  He can strike out double digit hitters in a game or he can give up 12 baserunners in 4 innings.  A lot of times he gives you both.  2012 Projections:  12-11/3.95/1.35/185

58. Vance Worley – I think his 2011, which was fantastic, is partly due to hitters not being familiar with him.  He had a 8+ K/9 and a 3.66 xFIP.  Alone those numbers say he was a hotter piece of ass than his mother, Jo Anne Worley, ever was.  I think, unfortunately, Worley is a candidate for a sophomore slump.  That’s my gut talking though (unless those noises are coming from further south on my body).  When the gut talks, you listen or you end up needing an antacid.  2012 Projections:  12-9/3.75/1.27/130

59. Mike Minor – I almost put Julio “The Sheik” Teheran here.  Who’s the Braves fifth starter?  Can we just draft “Braves fifth starter?”  Is that legal?  The heat is off Minor to be good and I will love him once again.  Last year I told you to draft him in every league, then when the Braves announced Beachy would be in the rotation instead, I told everyone to draft Beachy.  Minor?  He major.  Nothing wrong with the stuff.  If anything, he’s a year older (24) and can have a huge breakout.  Last year he threw over a 180 IP between the Braves and Triple-A, so if he pitches well, he might just throw 200 innings.  Yeah, there will be more mention of him this preseason.  2012 Projections:  10-8/3.65/1.28/170 (<–optimistic, but whatevs)

60. Wandy Rodriguez – He’s exactly the pitcher he was last year (3.49 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 166 Ks), plus or minus .20 in ERA and 20 Ks.  He’s more or less overlooked because he’s on the Astros (shoot, people who work for the Astros overlook them) and he has little to no upside.  Will his numbers be better than Worley?  Prolly.  Would I draft Worley first?  Prolly.  There’s something to be said for upside.  If you’re not excited for your team in March, how excited will you be in June?  Look at February Grey getting philosophical!  I’m one upping Socrates.  I’m Mo’crates!  That might just be my rapper name too.  Yo, mo’ money, Mo’Crates!  Mo’ money, Mo’Crates!  Mo’ money, Mo’Crates!   I drink cream soda and I rock a toga!  King Minos got a powerful navy, and, yo, my beard and hair is wavy!  Try and read about me from Plato and your head will turn to mush… Nah, gravy!  Mo’ money, Mo’Crates!  2012 Projections:  10-10/3.65/1.30/170

In the last installment of the grading process, we have to look at the bad – those guys I, Albert Lang, was totally wrong about. As always, in the comments, feel free to beat your chest about who you were high on relative to the rest of fantasy baseball players! Thanks for reading!

Joe Nathan – After doing some research and talking to some folks, I was pretty sure Nathan was healthy and undervalued. Well, that wasn’t the case. He stumbled out of the gates and has been bogged down by the suckitude of the rest of the Twins. His year would look better if the Twins were capable of doing anything, but 13 saves isn’t going to cut it. It’s the 31^st most at the position and less than Kevin Gregg, Javy Guerra, Frank Francisco and Matt Capps.

Madison Bumgarner– I don’t think I was more off on a player than Bumgarner. I had him as the 76^th best starting pitcher, while consensus had him around 37. I saw Bumgarner as an uninteresting 3.50 ERA pitcher with a WHIP around 1.25 and 130 Ks. I wasn’t totally off on the ERA (3.32) or WHIP (1.24), but man I didn’t think he’d pitch this many innings with this kind of K-rate. Bumgarner sits as the 30^th best SP in fantasy this season. Whoops!

Jair Jurrjens – Like Bumgarner, I was pretty far off on Jurrjens. I had Jurrjens as 99 among starting pitchers, consensus had him around 50. I had him pegged for a 3.90 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 130 Ks. I was incredibly concerned about his durability. While I nailed his inability to rack up Ks for you (the Braves have shut him down and he has just 90 Ks), his ERA (2.96) and WHIP (1.22) more than make up for those shortcomings. In fact, Jurrjens is the 36^th best pitcher in fantasy this year.

Pablo Sandoval – I didn’t differ with consensus much on Sandoval, but enough to make it really matter. The “royal we” had Sandoval as the 12^th best 3b, I had him as 15. I said he was a .300 hitter (I was right there) but with moderate pop. His 23 HRs (while missing time with an injury) are the opposite of moderate. Sandoval is the 10^th best 3b this season.

Tim Hudson – I was way off on Tim Hudson. While he wasn’t loved in the community (39^th SP), I really hated on him (65^th SP). I pegged Hudson to finish with a 3.40 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 140 Ks. Well, Hudson is the 18^th best SP in 2011 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 150 Ks. He’s beaten my projections pretty well. He keeps going out there and converting balls in play to outs. Congrats!

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Man, that was a bad call.

Brian Roberts – I don’t know which sleeper call was more laughable, Brian Roberts or Dice-K. Probably Dice-K, because when I wrote the Roberts section he was, supposedly, technically, healthy. God, why wouldn’t the Orioles trade him two years ago?

Logan Morrison – I thought Morrison would be an 80 run threat with a decent average and some moderate pop. Well, the pop has been anything other than moderate (23 HRs in 462 ABs), however he has scored just 54 runs and batted a disappointing .247. He’s gotten on base and the power is a great sign going forward, but he didn’t do what I expected this year.

Bobby Abreu – I had Abreu as a .265-.270 hitter with a .360 OBP, 90 runs, 18-20 HRs and 23-25 SBs. He hit .253 with just 54 runs, eight HRs, but has 21 SBs and a .353 OBP. I’d like to call this one a push, but it isn’t. I was wrong; Abreu is in full on decline now. What a great career, but the lights have clearly gone out.

James McDonald – It should come as no surprise that I love James McDonald. I had him down for an ERA in the 3.00s, a WHIP around 1.30 and 180 Ks. Well, he has 142 Ks, a 4.21 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. He has shown improvements, but that’s still a swing and a miss. That said, I did like him more than Carlos Carrasco, JA Happ, Mike Pelfrey, Randy Wells, Carl Pavano and Tim Stauffer. With the exception of Stauffer, I was dead on, making this just short of a clear push.

Brett Cecil – It just never came together for Brett Cecil the way I thought it could. I had him as the 62^nd best SP before the year, whereas he went largely unranked/undrafted by the masses. I saw an ERA somewhere between 3.85-4.15, 140 Ks and a WHIP in the 1.30-1.35 range. Well, the ERA (4.73) and WHIP (he’s at 1.33) are far from great. However, he never got the innings I thought he would and is sitting at just 87 Ks. I believe in him long-term, but he didn’t provide much value to teams in 2011.

Ike Davis – I personally blame the medical staff who work for the New York Metropolitans – but, then again, I know they haven’t been too successful lately. Moving forward, Mets players should have a Red Letter attached to their name.

Mike Aviles – I missed badly on Aviles. I ranked him as the 12^th best 2b and 9^th best SS. I believed he was capable of putting up a .290 average, 10-15 HRs and double digit steals. I must have been drunk when making that assessment.  Aviles is the 38^th best 2b, behind such standouts as Robert Andino, Brent Lilibridge and Aaron Miles. He fared a bit better against the shortstop pool, coming in at 30^th, although he is behind all glove, no-hit Brendan Ryan and Willie Bloomquist, who is all-nothing. He did have seven homers and 14 steals, but the .255 batting average and sporadic playing time made him worthless.

Jed Lowrie – It’s hard to say whether I was more incorrect about Lowrie or Aviles – it’s like comparing Bachman Turner Overdrive and Paul McCartney and Wings. I did couch my Lowrie prediction in a lot of qualifiers, but at the end of the day had him as a .274 hitter with 15 HRs and believed he was a likely top 25 player at the position. Sounds like a pretty flimsy projection. And yet, I still whiffed like Mark Reynolds does while batting/fielding. Lowrie, the 41^st ranked SS at the moment, is batting .252 and has tallied just six homers. He can’t stay healthy. I must repeat that to myself.

Daric Barton – Another horrible call. I truly believed Barton’s plate discipline would result in a cheap and easy 85 runs. I also saw him as similar to Gaby Sanchez from a few years ago, with double digit power + upside. It was clearly a deep league play, but I did advocate for Barton over James Loney. As for the tale of the tape: Barton has a .212 average, 27 runs and zero homers and has logged just 236 at bats. While Loney has sort of sucked, he’s been way better than that.

Aaron Hill – While I ranked him lower than where he was going in most drafts, I also thought Hill could bat .260 with 25 HRs and 70 runs/RBIs. The only thing that made his numbers approach my expectations was a trade to the desert. Hill currently sits at .246 with just eight homers. He does have 61 runs and 61 RBIs, so my 70/70 wasn’t too far off. But, yikes, 2009 was a long, long, long time ago.

Mitch Moreland – I thought Moreland would easily hit 20 HR and drive in 80 RBIs and that he could finish top 15 at 1b. Wow, was that wrong. Moreland has 16 HRs and never showed enough skills to get the PT required to reach 80 RBIs (he has just 51). He is not only outside the top 15 1bs, he isn’t even in the top 30.

Brandon Allen – Allen never got the playing time and he was really just a stab in the dark for me. Still, when he has gotten into games, he has done nothing. He has a .200 average and just six homers in 175 ABs.

Juan Miranda – The thought of Miranda having 20+ HR potential is laughable now. Fighting off Xavier Nady and Russell Branyan wasn’t even possible for the slugger who has sluggishly batted just .213 with seven homers in 174 ABs.

Ryan Hanigan, Josh Thole, A.J. Ellis – These guys never got the at bats to do anything. They were decent gambles, but hit just 11 HRs combined.

Mark Ellis, Sean Rodriguez, Eric Young Jr. – Ultimately they didn’t come close to anything resembling a sleeper. Thankfully, you couldn’t have spent much on them. Young did steal some bases, despite having a really hard time actually getting to first base – so there’s that!

Jose Lopez, David Freese – I thought both guys would be cheap enough to make any contributions worthwhile. Freese hasn’t played much because he has been hurt (typical), whereas Lopez hasn’t played much because he sucks (typical). Both have shown signs down the stretch, but were basically worthless throughout the year.

Dexter Fowler has been hotter than a junebug on the back of a furnace’s ass, or some other yokelism.  Dexter?  I hardly Fowler!  Huh?  In his last seven games, a .423 average and 2 homers.  He’s not good for anything more than the occasional dinger, which only sounds talk between a wife and her friends.  He is hitting on top of a lineup that puts up runs and he has speed.  While he’s hot, I’d grab him everywhere.  Don’t get left out in the cold.  Remember you can’t spell Denver without Dexter envy.  Or you can’t spell Dexter Fowler without DTF.  That’s Doubles Triples Forget about homers.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

David Murphy – He was nearly the lead for today’s Buy post.  That’s how much I like him.  You have to really strike a nerve about needing to be owned in every league to get the lead, but you have to come close to striking said nerve to almost be the lead.  Talk about the pinnacle of one’s career.  Put it on the back of your ball card, kid!  You almost made a Razzball lead!

Alex Presley – And he almost-almost made the lead!  Wow!  It’s raining praise like a church that mysteriously appears in the Bermuda Triangle! (<–Confusing comparison of the day!)

Alex Rios – He didn’t almost make any lead.  I kinda don’t even want Rios to do anything because I absolutely know it’s just going to cause people to come out of the woodwork next March asking about him. “Buh-buh-buh-but, Grey, sir, your almighty ‘stacheiness, Rios was good last September.  Big things in 2012, right?!”

Alejandro De Aza – Alejandro is hot like Mexico!  And just think, when he’s no longer worth owning, you can tell your friends you just did the Alejandrop.  Don’t get sad!  Imaginary friends work too!

Kosuke Fukudome – It’s the week of the hot outfielders, huh?  It reminds me of that week in 1993 when Jim Eisenreich was in the middle of a 7-for-12 stretch but Philly fans still wanted to throw batteries at him because he kept cursing at them.

Jon Jay – He has 2 homers and hitting .522 in the last week.  I got Federalisztomania!  What, no Phoenix fans?  You, “I thought French rock was a stale baguette.”  You’re such a snob!

Jason Kipnis – Nothing goes better with a bagel and cream cheese like Eli Whiteside.  But Kipnis is good for a nosh if you need a middle infielder.

Scott Sizemore – ESPN wrote something recently saying Sizemore could be a sleeper in 2012.  Way to take a stand!  Of course he’s going to be a sleeper.  The problem is the A’s need to move their fences in about 1.2 miles.  In all directions.  You could have a front row seat by 1st base and need binoculars.

Trevor Plouffe – His last name sounds like the sound a turd makes when it hits the toilet water.  Hehe.  Sorry, that’s juvenile.  But, seriously, he-effin’-he.  Um, so he’s been hot– Sorry, I have to move on.  His name’s just too ridiculous.

Juan Francisco – I spy with my little right eye a worthwhile add for right now in NL-Only leagues.  Since Rolen is following in Glass Chipper’s footsteps, I imagine Francisco will see the majority of the at-bats for the remainder of the season, which means he could become mixed league sexy.  Otherwise known as a swinger.

Dayan Viciedo – He’s done nothing but swing a hot bat since his call-up, so of course Ozzie benched him the other day.  Oh, Ozzie, you make me a little crazy.  *shaking fist at the sky* A little crazy!

Cliff Pennington – Has good speed and can teach you how to golf.

Dee Gordon – He’s good for steals.  Yadda³.  On a side note, I was thinking about how I can’t imagine Don Mattingly ever getting fired.  Maybe because I grew up in the tri-state area when he was a God, but I can’t picture any scenario where Mattingly is blamed for anything.  “Ooh, it’s Donnie Baseball, it’s his back’s fault the Yankees aren’t winning.”  The Dodgers will have to be folded into the Padres (and the Dodres still wouldn’t have a good offense) to get Mattingly out of his job.

Marco Scutaro – Hitting .476 in September and…Ugh, don’t make me say anything else nice about Scutaro.  He’s hot as of right now, that’s all I got.

Edwin Jackson – Hasn’t had a bad start in over a month…Which makes me think he’s gonna have one tonight because I just jinxed him.  Stupid superstitions.  Anyone see where I put my rabbit’s foot?

Bud Norris – BTW, I just went over borderline fantasy starters for the next week, and, really, this late in the season there’s no reason to look more than one week in advance in most leagues.

Bobby Parnell – Own unless you’re in a British ex-con league with a No-Bobby rule.

Kenley Jansen – Word out of the mean streets of sunny LA is Jansen or Guerra could be the closer next year.  So those in deep keeper leagues who are looking to stick someone on their team for cheap this year that could have huge value next year, grab Jansen.

Jason Motte – Member during the 2010 preseason when I said Motte should be the closer?  So I was a year and a half early.  Well, here’s the thing, I time travel so much I sometimes forget what year I’m in.  BTW, invest in AOL, they’re about to merge with Time-Warner.

SELL

Fernando Salas – I could see holding him in some leagues where you’re very desperate, but in most leagues you’re looking at a guy that might get a save or two or might be closing out the seventh inning.  I.e., I’d prefer the apple sauce instead of the misspelled Mexican sauce.

Brandon Morrow – His next start is against the Sawx, who just mollywhopped him for 8 earned, and the Jays might limit him since he’s above his career high in innings.  You guys had a good run.  Get his address and go hide in his garbage can with a Jiffy Pop container over your head so you can see anytime you want.

John Danks – Who’s more infuriating than this schmohawk?  A three hitter followed by an 8 earned run game.  There’s gotta be better matchup guys on waivers.  Move on, there’s nothing to see here.

Jair Jurrjens – He’s out until the playoffs.  That’s nice.  Later!

Grady Sizemore – I guarantee you, with his stats, if his name was Crappy McCrapstein, you wouldn’t own him.

Adam Lind – I hate to outright drop a guy capable of a four homer week, but it seems like his wrist is sore and his power looks zapped, and not zapped like that awesome early 80′s movie with Scott Baio.  I wonder if him and Willie Ames are still friends.  They were like peas and carrots.  I bet David Aardsma is glad that Willie Aames devoted his prodigious talent to acting instead of baseball so he can stay first in the baseball dictionary.