Fantasy Baseball Advice

I could probably draft a team of these starters, who are drafted after the 150 mark in mock drafts, and win your league’s pitching stats.  In this post last year was Ricky Romero, Hellickson, Kuroda, Gio Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Chacin, Cueto, and Daniel Hudson.  I had those guys on multiple teams.  I don’t say this to brag, but I’m really good at targeting starters to, um, target.  Well, I’m good with hitters too, but starters I’m really good.  I’d like to say it’s because I’m smart, but since I’m sorta dumb I’m not sure what it is.  Maybe I’m an idiot savant, who I believe was Doug Savant’s cousin that had a walk-on part on Melrose Place, the Original.  And with all of that said, you should still draft a starter or two before you see any of these names on the top of your draft list.  Well, you know what to do from my top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  It’s good to have a safe starter or two before you go upside.  In the immortal words of some drunk tightrope walker, “I don’t need the net under the trapeze but I want it there.  Burp.”  There’s also a pitchers pairings post to help you along with your staff.  That’s what she said!  Wait, what?  Finally, you can check out APPLES.  Anyway, here’s some starters to target in your 2012 fantasy baseball drafts:

Ubaldo Jimenez – Under that link is my projections and thoughts.  To read a less optimistic man’s thoughts on Ubaldo, click on the thing that says “thoughts on Ubaldo.”  Though that might’ve been clear.  I need a mentee to seamlessly link to shizz.

Brandon Morrow – I’ve put years of love into Morrow (that sounds like the start to a cheesy poem).  This is all I ask, one good year for Morrow (that’s an even cheesier poem start).  I can almost guarantee if he’s good this year, everyone else will like him next year and I’ll end up going the other way (cause I think if Morrow’s going to be good, it’s gonna take some luck (that sounds more like song lyrics)).

Derek Holland – My heart’s saying Holland is a potential bargain where he’s currently being drafted, but my brain is saying watch out for pitchers in Arlington.  I guess my heart and my brain are going Dutch with my excitement for Holland.

Jaime Garcia – Does he enter games to Funkytown, but his first name is substituted in for Funky?  He should.  Give the ADL something to get worked up about.

Trevor Cahill – It’s nice when you can forget BABIP, xFIP, MESHUGAS and you can fall back on simpler times like, “He was traded to the NL, that’s good for his value.”

Doug Fister -  Fister, but I hardly remember placing him in a favorable tier!  Hmm, that didn’t work so well.  But it is true.  I haven’t changed my opinion on him, but he’s also being drafted later than I think he should be, so there’s that.

Jhoulys Chacin – Know what it means when a pitcher ends up on this list two years in a row, even after producing solid results the year before?  He pitches his home games in Colorado.

Brandon McCarthy – If the last few names above McCarthy could’ve been called, “Look at the top 60 starters post.”  This next plouping could be called, “Top 80 starters.”  Two points for those that remember my use of plouping.  Better yet, you’re like a cyclops with a monocle!

Scott Baker – I doubt we see a full season from Baker, but — and this is a J. Lo-sized but — if we do, he could be a top 25 starter.  How’s dem apples?  Golden Delicious!

Tommy Milone – Is it Tom Milone or Tommy?  “Are you my brother Rob or Disco Bob?”  A nickel to anyone that gets that reference without the aid of Google.  Too late, you cheated.  You know someone who’s not cheating, but loving you all slow and low like a good BBQ?  Tommy Milone.  Yeah, so Peacock didn’t come up aces, but instead dropped a deuce.  Milone looks like he’s gonna make the A’s staff and pitch in a park that ends in “co.”  That’s good news.  Also good news, he doesn’t walk anyone, which will limit the amount he could roofie you.  Milone’s 2011 in Triple-A was a 3.22 ERA with a 155/16 K/BB ratio.  The not-so-great news, he’s not going to win any games or put up huge Ks.  That’s all right; you don’t draft Wins and solid ratio help from a late-round flyer can be helpful.  For the season, I’ll give him the line 7-9/3.70/1.18/130.  Solid last man on the staff stuff, no bluff, Aubrey Huff.  Sorry, got a little Seussian there.

Jake Peavy – See what I said about Scott Baker and add an extra exclamation mark.  Now remove a comma.  Okay, put a period there.  Yeah, that’s about right.

Edinson Volquez – We’re only three years removed from Edinson having 200+ Ks and a 3.21 ERA and now he’s gonna be in Petco.  As Pauly D would tell you, you don’t come in with a big banana and expect everything to be peaches, but it’s worth a shot.

Tim Stauffer -  I evaluate him as a Hodgepadre with a chance for more.  Why am I not a scout for a major league baseball team?!  “How does Stauffer look, Grey?”  “He’s a Hodgepadre with a chance for more.”  “I like when you use made-up words and talk nonsense.”  “There’s more where that came from!”

Randall Delgado – I could’ve also put Teheran here.  Tim Hudson is out for a month.  I do think he returns and bumps someone from the rotation, but it doesn’t mean if Delgado or Teheran are pitching well they will definitely be the ones bumped.  Jar-Jar isn’t the bill of good health and Hanson’s got a shoulder issue… Let’s just say Teheran and Delgado could both be in the rotation by May 1st.  Here’s a reason to be optimistic about Delgado.  Here’s a reason to be optimistic about Teheran:  2.55 ERA in Triple-A last year in 144 2/3 IP.

Vance Worley – In 131 2/3 innings last year, he had the stats of 11-3/3.01/1.23/119.  In the top 60 starters post, I gave Worley the projections of 12-9/3.75/1.27/130.  I’ll tell you what, those numbers are crazy conservative.  February Grey must’ve had his shorts on too tight that day.  Worley is only getting 11 Ks more from last year when he could throw 200 innings without being in danger?  He’s only winning one more game?  I said in that rankings post that I was worried about a sophomore slump, I must’ve been really worried.  I kinda want to go in, give Worley 30 more Ks, three more wins and ask February Grey what he was thinking.  February Grey, “Don’t believe me at your own risk.  See you next year… Muahahahahahaha…”

Jonathan Sanchez – I don’t buy that a guy like Filthy Sanchez, who walks everyone no matter the batter, will benefit much from the league switch and having hitters less familiar with him.  He still strikes out more than a hitter per inning and can luck into an ERA and WHIP anywhere from 3.07/1.23 (2010 numbers) to 4.26/144 (2011 numbers).  It’s worth taking the chance on that late.

Bud Norris – In drafts, when you see Bud, I would add a bid.  I think there was a pun in there, but I’m not entirely sure.

Mike Minor – On one hand, the Braves don’t seem to share my love of Mike Minor.  On the other hand, Hudson’s out for at least a month so they have room.  On the third hand that is actually a foot wearing a mitten, you’re late in your draft, take the flyer.  On the fourth hand that is actually one of this Hulk Hogan #1 foam hands, he’s having a great spring.

Shelby Miller – In the Cards’ minor league review, Scott said, “By all accounts, Miller has the repertoire and mental makeup of a big league ace.  With an effortless mid-90s fastball, a plus curveball, and a plus changeup, to go along with solid command, the 21-year-old should work his way into the St. Louis rotation at some point during twelve after twenty.”  Okay, he didn’t use twelve after twenty, but he should’ve.

Chris Sale – Rather than posting the Awolnation song in the Verlander overrated post, I probably should’ve put it in Chris’s sleeper post.  SALE!

Homer Bailey – In a draft recently, I told Rudy I liked Homer Bailey this year.  He said, “The Homer Bailey that pitches in major league baseball?”  Yeah, so Bailey hasn’t given much reason to trust him in his major league career, but his xFIP last year was respectable and he’s so overdue for a breakout.  And there’s the most scientific and least scientific reason jammed into one sentence.

In our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings, we’ve gone over so many flippin’ players I’ve lost track.  This is, I believe, the top 60 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball, but you’re best to check the title to be sure.   If it is indeed the top 60 starters, then you’re in luck.  Only a few more top 20 rankings posts.  What is it, February?  March?  Why don’t I have an app for this?  Or do I want a hashtag?  App ‘n Hashtag would be a good name for a 50′s style diner with wifi.  As with the other rankings posts, tiers and my projections are mentioned.  Anyway, here’s the top 60 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball:

41. Michael Pineda – This tier started in the top 40 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This tier ends at Wainwright.  I called this tier, “Might be fine, won’t be fine on my teams.”  I had already went over my Michael Pineda 2012 fantasy. That was before the trade to the Yankees when I was still eating some serious M-Pineda’s.  His projections then were 12-10/3.40/1.10/195.  I had him originally ranked 19th overall for all starters.  Now in The House They Built Across The Street From The House That Ruth Built, I’m slightly worried.  Much has been said about his Home/Away splits.  After the Montero/Pineda trade, some of it was said here.  He’s young so there’s plenty of time to see how well he adjusts.  For now, I’m going to let someone else take the chance on him.  What it really comes down to is it’s not very difficult to find solid starters, so there’s no reason to take unnecessary risk.  2012 Projections:  14-9/3.75/1.15/180

42. Adam Wainwright – The notes coming out of Spring Training can talk about how Wainwright did Tommy John surgery like Jon Stewart did Tucker Carlson.  Won’t matter to me.  I’m not going anywhere near him.  Someone would have to don a mustache and feathered hair wig and impersonate me in order for him to show up on any of my teams.  2012 Projections:  12-7/3.75/1.28/140 in 160 innings

43. Roy Oswalt -  UPDATE:  I wouldn’t draft Oswalt on any team now that he says he won’t play until midseason.  You can’t afford to roster a guy for more than half a season who you can’t even DL.  As of right now, it looks like Oswalt will sign with the Red Sox, which would make the most sense for both.  The Red Sox need a starter and Oswalt needs overalls and a tractor which the Red Sox would help pay for cause they need a starter.  See, both are happy.  Oswalt pitched well enough in the bandbox called Citizens Flank so I wouldn’t be worried about him in Fenway.  At this point in his career, he is who he is no matter where he plays.  2012 Projections:  14-10/3.65/1.22/140

44. Jhoulys Chacin – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Garcia.  I call this tier, “Guys that no one seems that excited about that I’ll draft.”  We’re solidly in the class of pitchers here that will probably be a solid number 3, which usually stands for the vomit you have while you’re crapping, but in this case it’s a fantasy pitcher that doesn’t compete for the Cy Young but can anchor your staff like a metal piercing.  As for Chacin, I think there’s an outside chance we get a number one starter out of him and I almost ranked him in the top 40 starter post.  What ended up having me rank him here instead is threefold.  First fold, his walks can be a bit obnoxious.  Two fold, his K-rate dropped last year.  Three fold, whoever heard of a three fold?  Do they have a threefold on your planet?  If Chacin can regain his K-rate and just reduce his walks by one per nine innings, you have yourself a top 20 starter.  All aboard!  Actually, all excited!  2012 Projections:  12-10/3.60/1.26/175

45. Trevor Cahill – When he went to the Diamondbacks, I said, “Even if his new ballpark is slightly more favorable for hitters, he’s got a solid sinker and he’s going to be facing the Giants, Padres and Dodgers, the Moe, Larry and Curly of lineups. I didn’t like Cahill at all the last two years, but I’m willing to reevaluate.  I’m not stubborn.  *through clenched teeth*  Fine, he looks draftable now!”  And that’s me quoting me!  2012 Projections: 12-10/3.60/1.35/160

46. Jaime Garcia – You want another thing this tier could be called?  Fantasy starters that should be around a 3.50 ERA, but aren’t going to strike out 200 guys.  After I said I didn’t like Wainwright or Carpenter, I was getting letters from the Vatican that I had something against Cardinals.  See, I like Jaime Garcia, so it’s not a Jew thing.  Though Dave Dinkins might think there’s some truth to the conspiracy since now I’m just liking a “Hymie.”  2012 Projections:  11-9/3.65/1.30/160

47. Neftali Feliz – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Holland.  I call this tier, “I have problems with Ranger starters.”  Arlington is basically the AL version of Coors and I’m not getting involved in that shizz.  Here’s what I said earlier in the offseason when it was announced Feliz would start, “His K-rate last year was a huge shambles or Suge Hambles if you roll with rap impresarios who are into spoonerisms.  I’m not sure how a closer could even have a K-rate of 7.80 with Feliz’s stuff.  I’m not just saying that to sound stupid, though it probably doesn’t hurt.  His fastball, curve and change were all the same velocity as previous years.  He added in a slider, but adding that shouldn’t have killed his shizz.  Hitters were just making good contact, or, at least, better contact and not getting as fooled.  His walks also went through the roof.  I mean, 30 walks and 54 Ks in 62 1/3 innings is terrible.  Who are you, Kevin Gregg?  But as we know from Dempster and C.J. Wilson’s transition to being a starter, Feliz is probably going to have the best year of his young career.  I’ll be on the outside looking in though, feels like too much risk to me.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2012 Projections:  10-6/3.55/1.20/95 in 120 innings

48. Colby Lewis – Last year he proved fresh off the bloat shouldn’t be restricted to Asians.  His K-rate and ground ball rate went down and his fly balls went up.  In Arlington, that’s basically standing on the balcony with coke on your nose, firing a machine gun at dozens of people who are firing back.  Ron Washington, “Must we mention coke?”  Lewis’s ERA ballooned to 4.40 and he was shot.  This year?  He’ll be slightly better, but I see no reason to stick my neck out for him.  He’s a pig that don’t fly straight.  2012 Projections:  14-11/4.00/1.20/180

49. Derek Holland – Holland is an interesting name in this tier.  Post All-Star break he had an ERA of 3.06 while pre-All-Star break was only 4.68.  Shows you that there’s some good Holland days and some bad Holland days, usually because of the whisking of the eggs.  I’m not convinced that he’s going to give you those post-All-Star break stats over the full year.  His September BABIP was .211, which helped give him a 2.20 ERA and bolster his 2nd half stats.  If he’s around late enough, I could see possibly gambling on him, but my pitchers I drafted before him will have to be less risky.  2012 Projections:  13-8/4.00/1.32/180

50. Justin Masterson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Hellickson.  I call this tier, “They got lucky last year.  If you draft one this year, you’re pressing your luck and may get whammied.” Most of the guys in this tier are ranked below where I saw them in most mocks and other ‘pert rankings.  If you see one of these pitchers going lower than I have them ranked, then you might want to gamble on one but they are due for a regression.  To put that more succinctly, I’d try to avoid these guys.  To put that even more succinctly, try to avoid.  Even more succinctly, avoid.  Most succinctly, av–.  Masterson had a 6.58 K/9 last year with a 3.64 xFIP.  Not terrible marks.  He gets a lot of ground balls, which is good, but, if he has just a bit of bad luck with those, his ERA is going to look ugly.  Worth avoiding on that risk.  2012 Projections:  10-10/3.85/1.32/160

51. Tim Hudson -  For full disclosure purposes — or porpoises, if you live in the sea — Hudson was originally ranked with Oswalt, but news just came out recently that Hudson may miss all of April due to his offseason back surgery.  If Hudson were younger, I’d consider an earlier timetable that says he could be back mid-April, but there’s no reason to take on an older pitcher who’s already hurting.  2012 Projections:  11-9/3.65/1.18/120

52. Doug Fister – His walks… His BABIP… His men left on base… His homers allowed… His uncanny ability to sing Kyrie from memory whenever someone calls him Mr. Fister…. They are all too good to be true.  I don’t think Fister will be unusable, but I also don’t think he’ll be a top 40 starter as most ‘perts have him.  2012 Projections:  12-10/3.85/1.18/140

53. Ervin Santana – He improved his walk and K-rate last year, but also got a bit lucky with his BABIP.  He’s a tough one to call.  He’ll either be a 3.75 ERA guy with around 180 Ks and 15+ wins, or he’ll be a 4-something ERA that just frustrates you from start to start.  I think it’s going to be more of the latter, if latter means the 2nd one.  Last year he threw a lot of sliders — more than anyone in the league and that’s reason enough to let someone else look to Ervin for magic.  2012 Projections:  12-12/4.00/1.30/170

54. Jair Jurrjens – If you’ve read this site for a minute (which is actually a long time if you go by the urbandictionary definition), you know how I feel about Jar-Jar.  You are just as likely to get his 2010 stats (4.64 ERA) as you are getting his 2011 (2.96 ERA).  Actually, that’s not true.  The stats say you should get a 4-something ERA every time out.  If you’re feeling lucky, then play the lottery and then go wash that Jurrjens right outta your fantasy team crosshairs.  2012 Projections:  11-9/4.15/1.35/100

55. Clay Buchholz – For any full season (which is very rare for Buchholz), he’s yet to have an xFIP under 4.  <sarcastic>Yay.</sarcastic>  He’s yet to have a K-rate over 7.  <sarcastic>Yippee.</sarcastic>  His walk rate for his major league career is 3.72.  <sarcastic>Terrific.</sarcastic>  2012 Projections:  10-6/4.25/1.30/125

56. Jeremy Hellickson – I saw Hellickson ranked around 30-ish overall for starters at other sites so I feel like I’m comfortable telling you to ignore him this late.  For some reason if he’s still around when you get this low into your draft, ignore him further.  Don’t go near him.  I’m not saying this because I was accused in the comments at the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball of being a Rays fan after my ranking of Longoria.  When are people gonna figure out that I don’t care about teams only about players?  I’m excited about McCutchen and Alex Presley, I don’t care about the Pirates.  I loved me some Matt Kemp last year, hated Andre Ethier.  The examples go on and on.  Sorry about this totally unfunny rant, but nothing annoys me more than being called bias.  I take this non-paying job way too serious!  As for Hellickson, his K-rate was 5.57 last year.  That’s good…For underhanded softball.  His xFIP last year was 4.72.  Sidney Ponson called and said stop stealing his xFIP.  Hellickson was lucky to not have a 6-something ERA last year.  Do not draft.  2012 Projections:  10-9/4.30/1.25/130

57. Jonathan Sanchez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes into the top 80 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “Holy crap, there were a lot of starters I didn’t like in this post.  Let’s see some names I like.  Please.”  Glad to be outta that last tier that is going to elicit so many comments of this variety, “Why rank Hellickson above Jonathan Sanchez if you’d draft Sanchez and not Hellickson?”  Jonathan Sanchez and other names in this tier are coming with a lot of risk.  I like them, but I’m not reaching for them until I see some other schmohawk draft Colby Lewis or Fister or Neftali or Hellickson et al (which is not the Israeli airline).  My projections for the players in this tier I like may even look better than some of the players above them, but there’s a lot of risk hurdles for these players to jump to get to those projections.  For instance, there’s a much better chance Hudson reaches his projections than Sanchez comes anywhere near his.  I like these pitchers, but they are flyers.  You should know there’s no guarantee with these guys.  They may be number two fantasy starters or they may be off your team by April 15th.  As for Sanchez, his nickname Filthy Sanchez is perfect for him.  It’s filthy as in good and filthy as in bad.  He can strike out double digit hitters in a game or he can give up 12 baserunners in 4 innings.  A lot of times he gives you both.  2012 Projections:  12-11/3.95/1.35/185

58. Vance Worley – I think his 2011, which was fantastic, is partly due to hitters not being familiar with him.  He had a 8+ K/9 and a 3.66 xFIP.  Alone those numbers say he was a hotter piece of ass than his mother, Jo Anne Worley, ever was.  I think, unfortunately, Worley is a candidate for a sophomore slump.  That’s my gut talking though (unless those noises are coming from further south on my body).  When the gut talks, you listen or you end up needing an antacid.  2012 Projections:  12-9/3.75/1.27/130

59. Mike Minor – I almost put Julio “The Sheik” Teheran here.  Who’s the Braves fifth starter?  Can we just draft “Braves fifth starter?”  Is that legal?  The heat is off Minor to be good and I will love him once again.  Last year I told you to draft him in every league, then when the Braves announced Beachy would be in the rotation instead, I told everyone to draft Beachy.  Minor?  He major.  Nothing wrong with the stuff.  If anything, he’s a year older (24) and can have a huge breakout.  Last year he threw over a 180 IP between the Braves and Triple-A, so if he pitches well, he might just throw 200 innings.  Yeah, there will be more mention of him this preseason.  2012 Projections:  10-8/3.65/1.28/170 (<–optimistic, but whatevs)

60. Wandy Rodriguez – He’s exactly the pitcher he was last year (3.49 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 166 Ks), plus or minus .20 in ERA and 20 Ks.  He’s more or less overlooked because he’s on the Astros (shoot, people who work for the Astros overlook them) and he has little to no upside.  Will his numbers be better than Worley?  Prolly.  Would I draft Worley first?  Prolly.  There’s something to be said for upside.  If you’re not excited for your team in March, how excited will you be in June?  Look at February Grey getting philosophical!  I’m one upping Socrates.  I’m Mo’crates!  That might just be my rapper name too.  Yo, mo’ money, Mo’Crates!  Mo’ money, Mo’Crates!  Mo’ money, Mo’Crates!   I drink cream soda and I rock a toga!  King Minos got a powerful navy, and, yo, my beard and hair is wavy!  Try and read about me from Plato and your head will turn to mush… Nah, gravy!  Mo’ money, Mo’Crates!  2012 Projections:  10-10/3.65/1.30/170

2011 was supposed to be a big year for Shin-Soo Choo — he was coming off his 2nd straight 20-20 season, his looming military service requirement to the Korean government was in the rearview mirror and he was just entering his prime age. Many (including yours truly) predicted a true breakout, and drafted him as an OF1. The statline that ensued packed about as much punch as Ralph Wiggum’s love life. Choo started the season in a horrendous slump before being caught for a DUI, and from there his slump spiraled out of control. Finally and mercifully his season hit rock bottom when a thumb injury sidelined him for a long period of time. Hailing from a culture that holds honor and duty in very high esteem, it would be foolish to say that the distraction of the DUI was not at least partly to blame for his first half struggles.

The story takes a positive turn after that, as Choo successfully and uneventfully rehabbed from his injury and returned in the second half.  The results were enough to remind owners of why they spent a high draft pick. He flexed his 20-20 skillset, hitting 3 homeruns and stealing 4 bags in August to go along with an otherworldly .348 batting average. This resurgence was ultimately cut short when Choo fell victim to “the year of the oblique,” straining the pesky muscle and ending his season prematurely. When evaluating Choo for early 2012 drafts, I find myself largely ignoring his abysmal first half 2011 and looking to that solid month of August. In doing so I am trusting that the problems were largely between the ears and that he put them in the past in the 2nd half and will be fine for this season. His ADP currently sits in the 70s, which is a pretty sizeable value for a true 5 category threat with a proven floor of production.

While we are on the subject of toolsy outfielders, I may be in the minority but I’m buying Carl Crawford this year. Yes, last year was about as ugly as it gets, and yes he still will probably be relegated to hitting in a less-than-advantageous spot in Boston’s lineup in 2012. These rather unsavory facts aside, I think a pretty convincing reason can be made to draft Crawford at his current ADP (mid-late 3rd round). At a glance his paltry 11 homeruns look bad, but consider that his career average for homeruns in a season sits somewhere around 15. Additionally, his 2011 ISO is actually HIGHER than his career ISO. Recall that you are NOT drafting Crawford for his power. You drafted him because he is a speedster that hits double digit home runs. He hit that power mark last year, and will continue to do that going forward.

Since power is not Crawford’s game the bigger issue was obviously his inexplicable drop in steals from 47 in 2010 to 18 in 2011. The aforementioned position in the lineup certainly played a part, as did nagging injuries, but in my opinion the largest single factor in this drop was his utilization. I really think that the Red Sox put the brakes on his game. This year, sweeping changes have been made to the Red Sox in both the front office and managerial positions. Since they have made such a huge investment in Crawford, they will really have no choice but to turn him loose going forward. This, coupled with an additional year getting used to the “pressure” environment in Boston, makes me bullish on Crawford this year.

Some more quick busts turned 2012 fantasy baseball value picks:

Nick Swisher – Still hitting in a bandbox in a great lineup. Yankees do not have better options anyway.

Kevin Youkilis – GGOW (Greek God of Walks) getting drafted in the 6th round at a weak 3B position? Yes, please.

Ike Davis – The latest casualty to the Mets’ training staff looks like a fine value at the end of drafts this year. Keeping with our Simpsons theme, pretty sure Dr. Nick could do a better job than the scrubs treating these injuries.

Brandon Belt – Maybe we were a year early on the hype train? At a round 15 price tag, I’ll pay to find out.

Andre Ethier – No, we haven’t forgotten about you. If your knee is finally right you might win some leagues as a flier OF3.

Jaime Garcia – Not really a “bust,” but HUGE home/road splits kept him from realizing true potential. Maybe he’s afraid of airplanes? Could be huge if he figures out how to pitch on the road.

Jose Tabata – Bloom is off the rose a bit with nagging injuries, but Shane Victorino upside hasn’t gone anywhere.

Adam Dunn – There’s not much more that can be said about his 2011. Hopefully it really was Ozzie Guillen that was the problem and he could go back to hitting 40 HRs for his fantasy owners. Still hits in a favorable environment.

Tampa is no South Beach.  His Wade-in-crime (Davis) isn’t quite as stellar.  But James Shields is looking a lot more Kingly than LeBron these days.  Facing the red-hot Red Sox (9 straight wins @ 9+ runs scored per game), Shields threw a 5-hit, 3-walk shutout.  That’s Shields’ 6th win with a 2.60 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and 98 Ks in 103.2 IP.  His ERA is almost half of last year’s 5.18 debacle.  Sure, he’s playing slightly above the talents he brought to Tampa (.269 BABIP, 82% strand rate) but his peripherals (K/BB) are as solid as anyone in the AL (including Verlander).  Hold him if you got ‘em.  Be confident to trade for him if you don’t.  Just watch out when he starts against the Tigers – that Dirks is clutch.

Elsewhere in fantasy baseballdom….

Justin Verlander - A 12 K, 2 hit shutout with the Indians’ first hit coming with one out in the 8th inning.  Clearly, Verlander was pissed that Francisco Liriano flirted with a 2nd 2011 no-hitter the other night.  He is Verlander, there can only be one.

Aaron Hill – 3 for 5 with a double and his 2nd HR of the year.  Not what I was expecting when I paid $18 for him in my AL-league.  Seems like an off year for a number of HR + high-K guys (Dunn, Reynolds, Hill, Uggla).  Reminds me of the mid-1980′s when suddenly all the coked up, slap-hitting SB guys all fell to the floor – or should I say LeFlore!

Cole Hamels - Another great start (7 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners) but left with a sore back.  Musta picked it up from ol’ balky-back Roy Oswalt.  Next thing you know, Hamels will be riding to games in a John Deere or strapping a V8 onto Cliff Lee and painting a Confederate flag on both his sides.

Domonic Brown - Two solo HRs for Domonic that both were no-doubters.  I’m starting to give him the googly eyes I usually reserve for Mike Stanton.  Homers just seem easier to hit when you’re 6’5″.  Well, except when you’re Michael Jordan.  (last basketball reference, i promise)

Jered Weaver – A 5-hit shutout just like Shields’ except it was against the Mariners vs. the Red Sox.  His other two shutouts this year were against Minnesota and Oakland.  Next time an ace throws a gem against a crappy offense, we should just write “He went to Jered’s!”.

Yovani Gallardo - Gallardo rebounded from an off start against the Mets (10 hits in 4 IP) with a 7 IP, 1 ER, 10 K performance against the Cubs.  He got the no decision as the Brewers bullpen blew the lead.  Congrats to everyone in Quality Starts leagues!

Josh Johnson - Now officially out through the All-Star break.  Even worse for the Marlins, Javier Vazquez is still healthy.

Chase Utley - 2nd HR in 3 games and 3rd straight multi-hit game.  He’s also got 3 SBs so far.  That’s how you play hurt, Heyward!

Ryan Zimmerman – Returned from the DL after a 2-month break with an abdomen injury.  Now if only the Nats had 5-7 more Zimmerman(n)s, I think they could make a run at a 90 win season.  If only 1912 near-Triple Crown winner Heinie Zimmerman was 105 years younger and alive.

Pablo  Sandoval - Returned from the DL as well.  Guess it was a good day for DL’d 3Bs not named Pedro Alvarez.

Lance Berkman - Another day, another HR for Berkman.  He leads Pujols in all the Triple Crown categories.  Feel free to gloat if you have Berkman or puke if you have Pujols.

Yuniesky Maya - 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  This Cuban got smoked.

Jaime Garcia – A solid start (6 ER, 7 Ks, 2 ERs) but the bullpen blew the win.  The thing with Garcia is that you either catch him early for an 11-run outburst or he gets into a rhythm.

Roger Bernadina – Rick Ankiel has the health yips again (came out in 2nd inning) which can only help Bernadina’s playing time.  With 9 SBs in 122 ABs, he’s a worthwhile catch off SAGNOF Harbor.

Philip Hughes – Had a successful side session throwing in the low 90′s.  If he’s available in your league and you’ve got DL space, I’d give him a flier.  Probably not back until early July but he’s got solid starter potential if he can pitch at that speed.  He’s got Cy Young potential if they’d inject some Colon fat into this arm.

Alexi Ogando - Alexi had his owners (who started him) saying ‘Oh God no’ with 6 ER in 1 2/3 IP at Yankee Stadium.  And that’s why you bench almost every pitcher @NYY outside of H2H leagues and AL-only.

Charles Blackmon - Another SB.  He’s making Dexter’s baserunning look fouler by the minute.

Trevor Cahill - 4 ER in 4 1/3 IP isn’t pretty but here’s the ugly stat.  0 Ks and 7 BBs.  Against the Royals.  And two of those walks were to Francouer.  Ain’t that a kick in the Cahill!  Brett Anderson threw up a clunker like this and he turned out to be hurt.  Wouldn’t be surprised if that was the case here too.  Damn you Moneyball movie.  You’re a worse curse than the Madden cover.

Jon Niese - Had his 4th straight quality start albeit over a 16 game stretch for the Mets because he needs time to rest.  His ERA is 2.76 in home games and 4.22 in away games which makes sense but….his WHIP is lower on the road (1.20) than home (1.44).  That doesn’t make sense but…..I’m still going to call him an East Coast Hodgepadre.  Start him at home and favorable away games.

Freddie Freeman – Scratched with a mild oblique strain.  I didn’t realize that oblique strains make one itchy.

Adam LaRoche – Out for the season with a torn labrum.  He tried to play through it until a clubhouse attendant pointed out that the labrum is in the shoulder.  You mean all those weeks of icing my LaNutsack after games was for nothing!

While Ed Wade was sleeping off his hangover on Saturday, his Toupee decided to mix things up and actually give Astros fans something to be excited about.  (This is excluding Carlos Lee’s riveting chase to be the 83rd player with 350 home runs.)  The Astros number one prospect, Jordan Lyles, will take over Wandy’s rotation spot.  So the Astros bring up Lyles, but do I Lovett?  His K-rate has been pretty poor in Triple-A, but spots his pitches pretty well without overpowering–  Burp.  Sorry, meant to write gas, not pass it.  He’s not worth grabbing in most mixed leagues, but he’s the kind of guy that could be a game changer in NL-Only leagues where waiver wire adds are a mix of yawnstipating and down right atrocious.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Wandy Rodriguez – The Wandwagon fell off the tracks and heads to the DL with fluid in his elbow.  I wonder if the fluid is acai berry juice, that’s packed with antioxidants!  He should implant a straw into his elbow and drink it.

Francisco Liriano – Will miss one start with a sore shoulder.  He couldn’t hurt himself and miss starts when he was still pitching poorly?

Joe Nathan – Headed to the DL.  They should send the entire Twins offense there, too.

Brandon Belt – Proving Sciosciapath’s come in different shapes and area codes, Bochy announced that Belt would be used primarily as a bench bat.  This move is so incomprehensible to me that I tend to think Bochy’s just saying it to ease Belt into the majors for this second go around.  He can’t actually be contemplating stunting the progress of his top prospect by calling him up and putting him on the bench.  This would be like your boss at Little Caesars telling you that your pizza making skills are too good to be washing dishes, so he promotes you to watching others make pizza while your skills get rusty.  Let Belt make pizza!

Mark Trumbo – 2-for-4, home run.  There’s still a number one Sciosciapath and he manages the Los Angeles Angels of Not Los Angeles.  On Saturday, he started Branyan against a righty and benched Trumbo.  Not good for Trumbo’s fantasy value. <–Well, obviously.  Hopefully, Trumbo’s home run yesterday will lead to him starting over the prospblock.

Corey Patterson – Five hits in an extra inning game, including a game-winning home run on Saturday.  4-for-5 with his 4th homer on Sunday.  That’s more hits than the 2 Coreys combined (Goonies, Stand by Me and Prayer of the Rollerboys).

Aaron Hill – Finally, he hit his 1st home run of the season.  If La Russa was managing the opposing team, he would’ve x-rayed Hill’s bat to make sure it wasn’t Bautista’s.

Aramis Ramirez – 1-for-3 with his 2nd home run of the season.  He tends to get scolding hot for extended stretches, so if someone dropped him in your league, I’d grab him.

Vance Worley – 3 IP, 5 ER.  Guess they can wait before they add a 5th head to Mt. Philmore.

Jimmy Rollins – 2-for-4 and three steals in the last two days.  He’s not quite the guy who won the MVP a few years ago, but he’s also not as dusty as I thought he’d be.  Then again, he’ll probably pull a hammy by July and miss a month.

Jose Reyes – 4-for-5 with 2 triples as he got too excited and had a serious case of premature extrabasulation.

Sean O’Sullivan – 5 2/3 IP, 10 ER.  Appropriately, his initials are SOS.

Joakim Soria – 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  Wow, he’s a mess.  Wouldn’t be surprised to hear him placed on the Disgraceful List any day now.

Hanley Ramirez – Left yesterday’s game with a stiff lower back as his dream season continues.  Maybe next he can run over your dog.

Scott Sizemore – Traded to the A’s and was sent down to learn 3rd base.  I’d start at The Cactus Album then try Derelicts of Dialect.

Ryan Raburn – Will be the everyday 2nd baseman with the Sizemore trade.  Terrific, fantastic, c’est bonderful, but he still needs to hit.

John Danks – 4 IP, 9 ER.  That’s one way to stop the White Sox’s six man rotation.

Yunesky Maya – 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER.  Nats called him up for Sunday’s start.  Due to my love for all things Cuban — cigars, plantains, rafts — I’m watching to see if Maya can make good on his promise, but four earned in four innings isn’t a great sign.

Juan Nicasio – 7 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 2 Ks.  I’d say we’d reevaluate if he pitched well, and, what do you know, he did.  I’d now look to grab him in deeper mixed leagues where you need to gamble on upside.  He didn’t show it Saturday, but he can strike guys out.  Yummo!

Eric Young Jr. – Since his call up, 5 for 14 and a steal while starting every day.  If you’re in a quiet place, you may want to turn down the volume on the next sentence.  PICK HIM UP!

Justin Masterson – 5 IP, 6 ER as his troubles against lefties continues.  I have an idea, you play Carmona at first and let him pitch to the lefties.  You snicker like I’m a gooftard, but people snickered when Doug Allison of the Cincinnati Red Stockings used the first leather glove in 1870.  They called balderdash, but it was not balderdash, my kind sir.  It was not!

Yovani Gallardo – 8 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Member when you were like I wanna drop him, YoGa’s stretching my patience?  He’s now lowered his ERA from 7.10 to 3.89 in less than a month with a 1.29 ERA since May 7th.

Alex Cobb – The Tampa Bay Peach will take over for Sonnanstine in the Rays rotation.  He was knocked around pretty good in his spot start earlier this year vs. the Not Los Angeles Los Angeles Angels, but he has been solid in Triple-A.  1.14 ERA, plus-9 K-rate, limits walks and keeps the ball down.  His drawback is his lack of an overpowering fastball.  For now, I’d only look at him in AL-Only leagues because of his division and lack of experience.

Jeremy Hellickson – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Good season so far.  Too bad a pitcher with Hell in his name wasn’t around when they were called the Devil Rays.  Could’ve had some goat blood tie-ins and virgin sacrifices.  First virgin could’ve been Cowboy Jon from the second Real World.

Evan Longoria – 4-for-7 and a home run but only one RBI as he spent the weekend hitting lead off.  Supposedly, the idea of him leading off came about when the team was in the clubhouse having lunch.  He swan’d out a napkin for Upton and Fuld called him a great table-setter.  Maddon overheard and the rest is history.  (It’s as plausible as any other reason to bat Longoria lead off.)

Jay Bruce – Hit another home run as he continues to invite his fantasy owners to his star mitzvah.

Blake Tekotte – 0-for-3, but got his 2nd start in the row.  Tekotte (Tea-coat-e) has good plate discipline and decent speed (30 SBs over a season).  For now, it’s gotta be a very deep league to contemplate him because his playing time isn’t guaranteed.  Though, the Padres should keep Tekotte’s fanny off the bench for a twilight.  (A’la Comic Book Guy, “Lamest.  Pun.  Ever!”)

Josh Collmenter – 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 5 Ks.  He continues to pitch better than he has any right to, but, hey, while he’s got it, flaunt it.

Alexi Ogando – 6 IP, 5 ER.  Finally, the correction I craved!  Now, if only Jaime Garcia would get hit hard.  Oh, wait a second…  Muahahahahaha…  Breath, Grey, breath! Thanks, random italicized voice.

Mike Napoli – 2 games this weekend, 2 homers.  This is why you Ron Popeil your catcher.  At the end of the season, you’ll look at Napoli’s stats and you’ll be fine with the 20-plus home runs, bleh average and decent RBIs.  Then next March, you’ll look at his stats again and draft him, then next April you’ll drop him.

Jon Jay – Hitting over .400 in May, .464 in the last 7 games and he hit a home run on Sunday.  Doesn’t have huge power or speed, but worth the flyer to see how long he can keep it going.

Allen Craig – Has been playing 2nd base to try and get offense into the Cards lineup.  La Russa said something interesting about the move, “It’s not a wacky thing where there’s nothing to gain.”  In all seriousness, I think this is a peek into La Russa’s mind where he knows some of the things he does are wacky, it’s just this is not one of them.  Here’s La Russa’s mind, “Batting the pitcher eighth?  Okay, wacky.  Changing the closer every third day?  A little wacky.  Wearing a live puppy-kitten scarf?  Definitely wacky!  Starting a good bat at a weak offensive spot?  Not so wacky.”

Jaime Garcia – 3 1/3 IP, 11 ER and 15 baserunners.  Altar boys rejoice in the karma of a Cardinal being violated.