Fantasy Baseball Advice

The top 50 fantasy baseball prospects list aims to provide a list solely for fantasy baseball purposes. Due to fantasy baseball’s immediacy of statistical production, players are not necessarily ranked based on tools or projections far into the future, but instead, current production. Aspects taken into consideration are fantasy baseball’s positional scarcity, Razzball philosophies, scouting reports and personal biases. Please keep in mind that this is published before the end of the 2011 season. Therefore, it is highly possible that some rookies on this list may lose their rookie eligibility (e.g. Kyle Seager), others who were expected to continue to acquire enough experience by the end of the season who may not (e.g. Brett Lawrie). Revision in the late off-season shall occur. There are highly touted names omitted from the Top 50 list that some might believe warrant a ranking that don’t fall into the prior caveat(s). Before lamenting, please check the Honorable Mention section. The most notable omissions are either blocked, provide more real world baseball value, need to repeat performance because of their pedigree, have GM’s avoiding Super-2 status or are rebounding from injuries. The signings in the upcoming weeks of the offseason and Spring Training could cause many players to rise or fall. Disputes, inquiries and general feedback is welcomed and encouraged. To be included, I used MLB eligibility requirements — less than 130 ABs or 50 IP, though I’ve made a few exceptions where I felt it was warranted. See Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2012, Part I for the complete list.

26. Trevor Bauer – RHP (SP) – ARI: Considered MLB-ready outta the gate when drafted in June 2011. Keith Law’s pre-draft scouting report indicates, “[His] fastball-curveball combination is [...] big league-caliber … shown he can get deep into games with regularity despite the lack of prototypical physicality. His heavy college workload — topping 130 pitches in the majority of his starts this spring [2011] … [workload] could impact whether he helps the Arizona Diamondbacks this season or what role in which that would come.” He has a plus-fastball sits between 92 to 95 MPH with good life and a 12-to-6 plus-curveball. His changeup needs work. Control and command is spotty and inconsistent, typically derived from overthrowing. Mechanically the only true concern is him locking his left knee upon delivery of the baseball. There is concern of possible knee injuries in the future. Beyond this quibble, his stuff is not in question, it is his combination of control and command, being overworked in college, and possible mechanically driven medical concern.

27. Martin Perez – LHP (SP) – TEX: Texas is loaded at pitcher, but you can never have enough young arms. Perez followed up a poor 2010 in Double-A with improved numbers across the board at Double-A but a regression in production when promoted to Triple-A. I see a midseason call-up. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

28. Garrett Richards – LHP (SP) – ATL: The Angels gave Richards two spot starts in 2011 in which he struggled. Prior to 2011 and before reaching more advanced hitters (read: before Double-A), he was able to produce high strikeout rates. In 2011, at Double-A, Richards strikeout rates plummeted from mid-9 K/9 to 6.5 K/9. Projects as a mid-rotation starter who pitches to contact or a power reliever.

29. Zack Cox – 3B – St.L: David Freese is not the answer for the Cardinals at third base. The 22-year-old Cox had an excellent 2011 season. In 344 Double-A at-bats he slashed .294/.357/.436 with 29 XBH (10 Hr) and a 69:29 K:BB ratio. Is considered a “gifted hitter with strength and strike-zone awareness.” Offensively reminds me of Ryan Zimmerman.

30. Kyle Seager – 2B/3B – SEA: By the end of the season, his rookie eligibility may be void. The Mariners hot-corner hasn’t been the same since Adrian Beltre left. Seager has the flexibility to play multiple positions. Barring an injury, would get the nod over Alex Liddi at this point. Seager has shown to be of average power – gap mostly – produces a decent average and the occasional stolen base.

31. Eric Surkamp – LHP (SP) – SF: Earlier this year, I said, “Surkamp is a soft-tossing lefty … Fastball sits in the upper 80s with heavy sinking action. Changeup and curveball are both plus pitches. Has a three-quarter delivery that creates good deception and he has strong command of all his pitches.”

32. Bryce Harper – RF – WAS: The hype will start early in April and build to a crescendo in June. I don’t think he’ll be up before August at the earliest. I’d expect Mike Trout-type results upon his first call-up. In his prime, I think he’ll be similar to Ryan Braun in his prime. This is all assuming no major setbacks or injuries in 2012.

33. Jake Odorriz – RHP (SP) – KC: The Royals are loaded with pitching prospects. As exemplified by Danny Duffy, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas Johnny Giavotella, Salvador Perez, Aaron Crow and Tim Collins’ 2011 call-ups, the Royals 2012 roster should see a heavy turnover, especially at pitcher. Will start out of the gate or be a June call up. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

34. Joe Benson – OF – MIN: The Twins best power hitting prospect. Injury prone. When healthy has shown strong plate discipline, above-average power (25 to 30 home run ceiling), and ability to steal the occasional base. He’s a Hunter Pence with a slightly lower average and a few less steals, if/when healthy.

35. John Lamb – LHP (SP) – KC: See half-inch above in the Odorizzi blurb. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

36. Chris Marrero – 1B – WAS: With Mike Morse coming into his own in 2011, the Nationals will not have to rush Marrero into the starting lineup. He’s proven himself at each level. In his prime, projects as a mid-20 home run hitter. Currently, I would expect a Freddie Freeman-type rookie season: .291/.352/.461 and high-teen home runs over a full season. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

37. Dellin Betances – RHP (SP) – NYY: As the Yankees best pitching prospect, high expectations will be placed on him, especially with the recent back-end rotation woes for the Bronx Bombers. June call-up looks to be in place. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

38. Liam Hendriks – RHP (SP) – MIN: With Kyle Gibson’s injury concern, Hendriks becomes the next best pitching prospect ready for the show in Minnesota. Not that the Twins will rush him, but their rotation is easily trumped by the Braves Triple-A rotation. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

39. Mike Montgomery – LHP (SP) – KC: Will need to improve command, limit walks and gain more consistency to be more than an AL-Only add. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

40. Kirk Nieuwenhuis – RF – NYM: To quote my Scouting article, “possesses good all-around, broad skill-set played at a balls-to-the-wall approach. Meaning, he has all tools ranging from fringe-average to average tools that make him a solid player but unspectacular at any specific skill. Hitting approach is strong, attempting to utilize all fields and working the count. Still projects as a .270 hitter with gap power within his line-drive swing.” Strikeouts will always be a concern. He’s one Angel Pagan injury away from seeing significant playing time in 2012. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

41. Steve Lombardozzi – 2B/IF – WAS: The Nationals were unwilling to give him up in a trade for Denard Span. Of course they did, they are the same player but at different positions.

42. Robbie Erlin – LHP (SP) – SD: Good strikeout potential, excellent future home ballpark, and amazing control. Yes, please. Listed lower than my praise because I don’t see the Padres rushing him to the majors.

43. Neil Ramirez – RHP (SP) – TEX: Similar to Erlin, I see the Rangers allow him to accumulate more experience at Triple-A. He started the 2011 season at High-A and was promoted to Triple-A and then demoted to Double-A. Needs to improve command. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

44. Andrew Oliver – LHP (SP) – DET: I think he gets pushed to the bullpen due to inconsistency and command concerns. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

45. Matt Dominguez – 3B – FLA: A strong NL-only and deep league play. He’ll sustain his major league career through his excellent defensive skills not his average-at-best bat. Projects to be a .260 hitter with average power (15 home runs). So David Freese.

46. Jaff Decker – LF – SD: At some point, his old-player skill-set (power and walks with poor defense) will catch up to his prospect value. Currently, I see him being a similar type of player as Jack Cust. That’s both a compliment and a red flag. May need to traded to an AL team to play DH. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

47. Casey Kelly – RHP (SP) – SD: Similar predicament to Robbie Erlin, but without strikeout potential – not even close. His home park causes his value to rise. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

48. Grant Green – SS – OAK: Cliff Pennington is keeping the spot warm for the future A’s shortstop. Better gap power than home run power (projects as average power), strong average, an occasional steal. Defensively, question marks are raise about his efficiency. Think a .300 hitter with 12 to 15 home runs and 10 steals from shortstop over the course of the season. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

49. Nick Franklin – SS – SEA: Injuries slowed his 2011 season down. Projects for a .280, 12 to 15 home run and 10 steal player. He plays good defense, has a smooth swing and average speed. His 2010 season was bolstered by his environment (California League). With Dustin Ackley manning second, Franklin appears to remain at shortstop. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

50. Travis d’Arnaud – C – TOR: Won the Eastern League MVP with the following slash line: .311/.371/.542 with 55 XBH (21 Hr) and a 100:33 K:BB ratio. Is blocked by J.P. Arencibia at the major league level. Travis d’Arnaud plays much better defense and makes better contact than Arencibia. The power potential is not the same with d’Arnaud, but he could easily hit between 15 and 20 home runs in his rookie year given a full seasons of at-bats (~400). However, that number of at-bats is highly unlikely, more likely to receive 250 at-bats. In that time frame, he could have 5 to 8 home runs with a digestible average.

Extra
51. Josh Vitters – 3B – CHC: Hitting wise, I consider him similar to Delmon Young: swings early and often, relies on pedigree and natural talent, is inconsistent. Defensively he is superior to Young. Aramis Ramirez has shown to be injury prone two of the last three years. Cub fans may finally see their 2007 first round pick. Keep in mind he is turned only 22 on August 27th. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

Late Scratch
Kyle Gibson – RHP (SP) – MIN: He would be a top 15 fantasy prospect if he wasn’t having Tommy John Surgery after injuring his elbow. The Minneapolis Star Tribune reported on September 1, 2011, “Gibson will have reconstructive surgery on his elbow after the initial phase of his rehabilitation program did not go well … surgery [was performed 9/7/11] in New York, … surgery done by Mets team physician, Dr. David Altcheck, who also operated on Joe Nathan’s elbow last year.” I don’t think I’ve ever heard a pitcher who’s pitching elbow hurt significantly successfully complete rehab without TJ Surgery. Twins fans hope that the Mets medical staff doesn’t advise on the healing process either. Then again, Joe Mauer had “bi-lateral leg soreness” for a month. Not sure where Dr. James Andrew (a.k.a Dr. Freeze) was in the whole conversation. Gibson was shutdown early August with elbow tenderness. Statistically, it appeared that his injury may have been lingering since early July. Not relevant until 2013. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

Honorable Mentions
In no particular order
Nick Weglarz (RF, CLE); Casey Crosby (LHP, DET); Trevor Bauer (RHP, ARI); LJ Hoes (2B, BAL); Jarred Cosart (RHP, HOU); Jedd Gyorko (3B, SD); Carlos Triunfel (SS, SEA); Adeiny Hechavarria (SS, TOR); Anthony Gose (OF, TOR); Yasmani Grandal (C, CIN); Chris Archer (TB) (RHP, TB); Jeff Locke (LHP, PIT); Tony Sanchez (C, PIT); Austin Hyatt(RHP, PHI), Michael Taylor (RF, OAK); Chris Withrow (LHP, LAD); Lars Anderson (1B, BOS); Brandon Guyer (OF, TB); Deck McGuire (RHP, TOR); Simon Castro (RHP, SD); Trevor May (RHP, PHI); Jake McGee (LHP, TB); Jeurys Familia (RHP, NYM); Christian Friedrich (LHP, COL); David Cooper (1B, TOR); Austin Romine (C, NYY); Tom Milone (LHP, WAS); Clint Robinson (1B, KC); David Lough (OF, KC); Tim Wheeler (LF/RF, COL); Alex Liddi (3B, SEA); Adrian Cardenas (2B/MI, OAK); Alex Torres (RHP, TB); Rudy Owens (LHP, PIT); Tanner Scheppers (RHP, TEX); Starling Marte (CF, PIT); Matt Adams (1B, St.L); Jose Iglesias (SS, BOS); Carlos Peguero (LF, SEA); Chris Parmelee (1B, MIN); Caleb Gindl (RF, MIL); Jarred Cosart (RHP, HOU)

Liam Hendriks | RHP (SP) | Minnesota Twins | D.o.B: 2/10/89 | 6’1″ | 190 lbs | B/T: R/R | Australia 2007 | MIN #6 ranked prospect per Baseball America 2011 | MiLB Player

This Aussie throws a 90 to 93 MPH fastball with solid sinking action, a tight slider with late break, a quality changeup and a curveball. All pitches are rated as average to above-average. Scouts debate over whether his changeup or slider is his best pitch. Injury history is of concern, in 2010, had appendectomy, and in 2008 had season-ending back surgery that cut into part of his 2009 season. Before his back surgery, his curveball was his best pitch. With a compact, efficient delivery, Hendriks is able to command all four pitches and projects as an innings-eating ground ball pitcher. ETA: 2012.

Career Stats (inc. 2011): 8.6 K/9 | 1.6 BB/9 | 326 1/3 IP | 2.51 ERA | 1.09 WHIP | .3 Hr/9 | 8.2 H/9
2011 Stats (AA): 8.1 K/9 | 1.8 BB/9 | 90 IP | 2.70 ERA | 2.82 FIP | 1.12 WHIP | .5 Hr/9 | 8.5 H/9 | .310 BABIP | 76.8 LOB%

The Twins always seem to have solid pitching prospects lining up for their major league debut. Kyle Gibson and Alex Wimmers may be larger names, but Hendriks has wedged himself into the conversation as a possible rotation option for the 2012 season. Statistically, he has marvelously performed at each level; good enough to be placed on the World Future All-Star game roster both in 2010 and 2011. With impeccable control, a solid strikeout rate and good ground ball ratios (1.09 GO/AO in 2011, 1.39 GO/AO in 2010), this Aussie has the ability to be a solid fourth starting pitcher option in fantasy leagues. I believe, he’ll have more real world value than in the fantasy game.

Jaff Decker | LF | San Diego Padres | D.o.B: 2/23/90 | 5’10″ | 190 lbs | B/T: L/L | 1st rd supp. 2008 | SD #7 ranked prospect per Baseball America 2011 | MiLB Player Page

Decker has a compact, powerful swing (power to all fields) with good hip rotation and good bat speed; possesses good hand-eye coordination and strike zone judgment which scouts predicts should translate to an average, um, average. Then again, his bat isn’t what raises questions marks. It’s his nonathletic body (squat and weight in lower body), below average speed, skills that don’t age well (power and batting eye) and being a defensive liability – though arm is strong enough for right field. Prototypical all-bat prospect. ETA: 2012.

Career Stats (inc. 2011): .279/.424/.494 | 1117 AB | 126 XBH | 52 Hr | .225 ISO | 33/15 SB/CS | 309:266 K:BB
2011 Stats (AA): .237/.397/.443 | 300 AB | 32 XBH | 14 Hr | .206 ISO | 9/4 SB/CS | 96:77 K:BB | .300 BABIP

I’ve liked Decker for the last two years, mostly because I have a thing or two for hitters who have the ability to take a walk, hit home runs, and are able to hit for solid average. However, in 2011, he has struggled to hit for average, and his BABIP isn’t to blame (.300 BABIP). Peripherals remain sound, his wOBA is above average (.380 wOBA), meaning he is still providing solid sabermetric value due to his power and frequent walks despite the low batting average. He reminds me of Mark Reynolds. Decker has the ability to hit .260 with 20 to 25 home runs and 5 to 7 steals over the course of a major league season. Petco is going to limit his power potential and his arrival to the majors is blocked by several players and prospects, including James Darnell, who’s on fire this year. I still believe his ETA will be September 2011 with a real opportunity in June 2012.  (*Stats are from 7/11/11)

In a week where the Angels surprisingly called up stellar top-prospect Mike Trout and the Reds called up Zack Cozart and his 15/30 potential, the Rays continue to be content leaving their top hitting prospect in the minors. The rumor and report out of St. Petersburg is that Desmond Jennings has a bruised right index finger. He will be missing the next several games and the Triple-A All-Star game. This could explain his recently poor slash line of .235./350/.441 in 34 at-bats. Furthermore, he’s striking out more than ever (23.3 K%) but it’s coming with increased power (.183 ISO is a career high too). Injuries have been an issue in the past, yet he has been fairly healthy this year. At this point, his arrival in Tampa is predicated on something more than his Super-Two status. My last and final guess is once his finger is healed and after the All-Star break.

Dayan Viciedo | CHW | 3B/OF: Has four home runs in his last 10 games and is hitting .325/.374/.535 in 342 at-bats. Currently walking at a career high-rate (6.3 BB%) and is keeping his strikeouts in check (19.5 K%). Statistically buoyed with a .367 BABIP, yet remaining numbers are trending positively with improved discipline and efficiency.

James Darnell | SD | 3B: Promoted to Triple-A on Independence Day. Has started 6 for 17 with home runs in three straight games. The Padres 12th ranked prospect has thrived since the beginning of this year. His average power and average defense will be limited in the spacious Petco Park. Could be a 17 to 25 home run player in his prime. September call up appears in line.

Tom Milone | WAS | LHP (SP): His 85 to 90 MPH fastball, in concert with a slow, “funky” delivery and stellar command continues to deceive hitters. He also throws an above-average changeup an average cutter and a fringe curveball. In his two starts this past week, he went 13.1 innings with 12 strikeoust and 9 baserunners (2 walks). Simply stupendous. With 103 IP, a .302 BABIP, a 68.8 LOB%, 9.4 K/9, .6 BB/9 and a 2.11 FIP, Milone has quietly put together a solid season.

Alex Liddi | SEA | 3B: The Mariners called up Kyle Seager to play third instead of Liddi. He has put together a solid season at Triple-A with 42 XBH (17 Hr) and a .257/.329/.480 slash line (346 AB), but has been hindered by his 110 strikeouts (36 BB). This has been his M.O. at each level. Seager has been hot and Liddi has been consistent.

Ryan Lavarnway | BOS | C: Promoted to Triple-A during early June, he has continued to display his hitting ability. Defensively, Lavarnway will always be a liability. With above-average power to all fields and solid control of the strike zone, Lavarnway has the potential to be the perfect fantasy catcher: 15 to 20 home runs with a poor average – a true start and ignore options without the acid-reflex.

Jason Kipnis | CLE | 2B: Has been in a mini-cold streak since the start of July, going 5 for 21 with 7 strikeouts.

The following three pitchers have received great fanfare from me, and will continue to do so. All three had a good week 15.

Eric Surkamp | SF | LHP (SP): 11 strikeouts in 5.2 innings and 5 baserunners (3 walks) and 0 ER. Does have a 85.3 LOB% which would lead one to expect a regression towards the mean.

Matt Moore | TB | LHP (SP): 14 IP, 18 Ks, 9 baserunners (3 BB) and 2 ER. Triple-A should be in his near future. Please, Andrew Friedman, don’t make this another Hellickson time frame with an evil twist of Jennings.

Brad Peacock | WAS | RHP (SP): 6 IP, 7 baserunners (2 BB), 9 Ks, 0 ER. Continues to flaunt his plumage.

Liam Hendriks | MIN | RHP (SP): The Twins will call up Kyle Gibson before Hendriks who is in Double-A. However, I want to get his bandwagon started. He throws a 90 to 93 MPH fastball with good sinking action. His slider breaks late and is considered best pitch and his changeup and curveball are of near equal quality. Scouts often debate which off-speed pitch is his best. Has easy delivery that is easily repeated and good command of all his pitches. Hendriks current line looks something like: 90 IP, 8.1 K/9, 1.80 BB/9, 2.70 ERA/2.82 FIP and a .310 BABIP.

Brett Jackson | CHC | CF: What’s not to like about a potential 20/20 player? Currently in midst of a 14 for 37 stretch with 4 XBH (3 HR). I would not be surprised to see the Cubs promoted him from Double-A to the majors like they did with Starlin Castro last year.

Jaff Decker | SD | 1B/LF: He’s the prototypical sabermetric player and fast aging ballplayer due to skill-set. He has plus-power and strong strike zone judgment (94:76 K:BB in 292 AB – 2011). Struggles on defense and hitting for a high average. While Darnell got the promotion to Triple-A will continuing on improving his .243/.404/.455 slash-line and 32 XBH (14 hr).

In an alternate universe, one in which the Cuban Missile Crisis was more than a crisis, the local family big-box appliance store would be Montgomery Castro. Launching the next holiday sale, Montgomery Castro introduces the exceeding expectations oven, the humidor microwave and the “Honey, I can’t find my [ground] balls,” fake grass-carpeting for the “dry” seasons down south. Mike Montgomery (KC) and Simon Castro (SD) should reinvest in their store. They have both struggled with control and Castro with the long balls. Seems about right, their missiles were always oh!-so close. These two pitchers have combined for a 29:22 K:BB ratio in 36 innings and 21 Earned runs on 35 hits. Equally as upsetting is our neighborhood family law firm Parker and Archer who have represented Montgomery Castro, but have lost several early suits this year. Everything from no command on the stand, to serving up easily dismissed arguments and even rolling over after finishing their points early. Jarrod Parker (ARI) and Chris Archer (TB) have struggles much like the local Montgomery Castro. Parker and Archer have combined for a 22:16 K:BB ratio in 24 2/3 innings (six starts) and 24 earned runs on 37 hits. I would submit to you that Archer feels cheated by Parker and the firm may be splitting-up leaving their fancy Madison Avenue office for a cheap hotel.

Charlie Furbush | DET | LHP (SP): Charlie’s 89 to 91 mph fastball is striking people out again in the early 2011 season after fading hard in 2010. He has a 21:4 K:BB ratio in 16 2/3 innings. Maybe, in spirit of the holiday season, he ran up the mountain, saw the commandments and spoke to [His] flaming bushes along the way giving him a greater understanding. Or maybe he’s not at the end of a season in which he had reached his career high in innings. I’d like to believe the former. He’s a marginal play when, or if, called upon.

Rudy Owens | PIT | RHP (SP): He’s been a solid performing prospect on a terrible team, as opposed to a terrible performing prospect on a high profile team – cough, Fernando Martinez, cough. His 87 to 93 mph fastball and average off-speed pitches are controlled with pinpoint command. In the early going, he has had three solid outings to start the season, a 15:4 K:BB ratio in 18 1/3 innings. He’s not a dominate arm, but solid middle-rotation pitcher. A mini-Lily, definitely Owen-able when called upon in deeper leagues.

Anthony Rizzo | SD | 1B: Currently has 11 XBH (5 Hr) a 9:5 K:BB ratio in 59 at-bats at Triple-A. Rizzo is living up to the hype so far. With the Padres first base shituation, it’s only until June that everyone see him in the majors. Even with an unsustainable slash line of .458/.500/.814, he still has moderate power and good contact skills but more in the range of a .275/.350/.475 hitter. The leader of hits at Triple-A as of 4/22/11 will have large shoes to fill when the time comes.

Eric Thames | TOR | LF: This is exciting. I wrote about him in this off-season’s Blue Jays Minor League Review found here, and he continues to impress. He has 13 XBH (2 Hr) with a 13:10 K:BB ratio in 60 Triple-A at-bats. Too bad he doesn’t strikeout more, he’d might get a chance for the Blue Kays.

Brett Lawrie | TOR | 2B/3B: Mentioned last week too, Lawrie has three home runs in the last two days (as of 4/22/11). Continues to hit and strikeout (15 strikeouts in 61 at-bats). Still a favorite of mine.

Alex Torres | TB | LHP (SP): Hard to ignore a 27:6 K:BB in 15 1/3 innings. Although a small sample size, he hasn’t last more than 5 1/3 innings, he stills provide two minutes of heaven. See 1/8 inch below to see why he’d get looked over, most likely to save arbitration.

Alex Cobb | TB | RHP (SP): Success with a low 90s fastball that has good sinking action and average breaking pitches. They have helped him to a tune of 25:5 K:BB ratio in three early season starts (16 IP). He’s a back end rotation pitcher or a solid bullpen arm. Definitely has more value as a number three, four or five starter. With Niemann struggling in the early going, I believe Cobb would get a chance over Torres in the early going.

Jaff Decker | SD | LF: After upper-decking last year’s early season, this year he’s hot with 13 XBH (4 Hr, 2 3B and 7 2B), with a 12:11 K:BB ratio and slashing .408/.532/.878 at Double-A. Have to like offensive potential in a farm system that sees their majors as a second Triple-A squad, even if they play at Petco.

Eric Hosmer | KC | 1B: Hosmer is trouncing Triple-A right now with 5 XBH (1 Hr) .373/.464/.492 and a 9:10 K:BB ratio. Dayton Moore will still probably not call him up until September as he promised in the offseason. Too bad, his teammate Moustakas is struggling mightily (.241/.313/.362 in 58 AB) and need to bust out of his slump. He has improved slightly in the last week (.257/.350/.371 in 35 AB) but still isn’t exciting anyone. Maybe he’ll pull a Jesus and rise again in the second half. That’s Montero you fools. I wouldn’t desecrate a deity on His special day.

Julio Teheran | ATL | RHP (SP): Not blazing past hitters this year at Triple-A. He has a 11:6 K:BB in 16 innings (3 starts). I wouldn’t expect him in the majors until mid-summer at the earliest. No reason to rush this young pup with Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy.

Jacob Turner | DET | RHP (SP): Looks like a mini-Vernlander. Seriously. Same height, stellar strikeouts and control and only 3-to-4 mph less on his fastball. Might explain the 20:3 K:BB ratio in 19 2/3 innings at Double-A this year. While Andy Oliver will get the attention in the early going, if Turner continues to pitch this well, he’ll be in the majors in no time.

San Diego Padres 2010 Minor League Review
Overall farm talent ranking via Baseball America (2010):
2010 (20) | 2009 (29) | 2008 (12) | 2007 (29) | 2006 (29) | 2005 (27) | 2004 (25)

Record of Each Affiliate:
Majors: [90 – 72] NL West
AAA: [59 – 85] Pacific Coast League – Portland
AA: [68 – 72] Texas League – San Antonio
A+: [81 – 59] California League – Lake Elsinore
A: [77 – 63] Midwest League – Fort Wayne
A(ss): [32 – 44] Northwest League – Eugene
R: [20 – 35] Arizona Rookie League

The Run Down
After a serious run for the playoffs, the Padres just traded the face of their franchise (See Grey’s Adrian Gonzalez trade ramifications). Last year, the Padres traded Peavy for Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Dexter Carter and Adam Russell and this year they traded a slugging first baseman for pitcher, Casey Kelly, a first baseman, Anthony Rizzo, and the young center fielder, Reymond Fuentes. The encouraging sign is that they made their playoff push on the strength of their pitching and they have two pitchers on the cusp of the majors in Simon Castro and Cory Luebke, not to mention a few hitters named Jaff Decker, the newly acquired, Anthony Rizzo, and Drew Cumberland on the rise. The Padres are going to need Kyle Blanks, and/or another prospect, to step in and fill some big shoes left by Adrian Gonzalez (no one hit for over .800 OPS besides Adrian Gonzalez). Another thing to watch for is the workload of Mat Latos; his total innings increased in 2010 by more than 50 innings over the 2009 season. Clayton Richard is in similar territory since he increased his workload by more than 40 innings. This might mean that Simon Castro and Cory Luebke receive their major league call-ups sooner rather than later. Watch to see what the Padres do with first base in Spring Training.  Blanks won’t be back for a few months.  Without further ado, your 2010 Padres Minor League Review.

Graduated Prospects
#24 (RHP) Ryan Webb; (RHP) Ernesto Frieri

Arizona Fall League – Peoria Saguaros
Pitchers: (RHP) Brad Brach; (LHP) Steve Garrison; #20 (RHP) Craig Italiano; #6 (LHP) Cory Luebke
Hitters: (C) Luis Martinez; #30 (2B) Cole Figueroa; #5 (3B) Logan Forsythe

Players of Interest
Hitters
#4 Jaff Decker | LF | D.o.B: 2-23-90 | Stats (A+): .262/.374/.500 | 290 AB | 33 XBH | 17 Hr | .238 ISO | 5/4 SB/CS | 80:47 K:BB | .299 BABIP
In the brimstone depths of the sabermetric and scouting community, Decker would be washed away with the “Old skill-set” label as Decker has the prototypical nonathletic first basemen body (5’11” and 215 lbs), has great power, controls the strike zone and has good pitch recognition – skills that fall off fast (see: Mo Vaughn). Kyle Blanks is less of a road block than Adrian Gonzalez was, as I don’t see Decker staying in the outfield. Nevertheless, fantasy baseball is about the immediate impact, Jaff Decker isn’t going to win any defensive awards, but he has 25 to 30 home run power over a full – and healthy – season, which he was not this last year. In leagues where you use OBP, he can provide even more value. I’d imagine a June call-up if he plays well and is healthy, especially if this team falls out of contention.

#8 (via Boston) Anthony Rizzo | 1B | D.o.B: 10-8-89 | Stats (A+/AA): .260/.334/.480 | 531 AB | 67 XBH | 25 Hr | .220 ISO | 10/1 SB/CS | 132:61 K:BB | .293 BABIP (A+); .297 BABIP (AA)
Brought over in the A-Gon trade, Rizzo offers some underrated first base value. Think Mark Grace. For more information, see his Scouting the Unknown article. ETA, out of the gate or June.

#11 Drew Cumberland | SS | D.o.B: 1-13-89 | Stats (A+): .365/.404/.542 | 249 AB | 25 XBH | 7 Hr | .177 ISO | 20/9 SB/CS | 34:15 K:BB | .398 BABIP
I toyed with writing a Scouting the Unknown article for him all year. Alas, I had to hold off. Injuries not withstanding, Cumberland is a tremendous talent; good defensive reflexes, but looks to be a second basemen long term, strong contact skills, slightly-above average strike zone control, and good speed. However, the injuries – hand, strained hamstring, a pulled ribcage muscle, a jammed finger, and a quadriceps strain – plagued him prior to the 2010 season. This year he had a “severe laceration on his left knee,” from, “chasing a ball against a concrete wall this weekend in Midland, Texas,” causing him to be out for the remainder of the season. He’ll start at Double-A in 2011. Similar skills to other MI’s, but could be have 15/30 potential. That is his high side. Low-side, Ryan Theriot.

#3 James Darnell | 3B | D.o.B: 1-19-87 | Stats (AA): .265/.348/.408 | 373 AB | 32 XBH | 10 Hr | .143 ISO | 2/0 SB/CS | 64:44 K:BB | .295 BABIP
Darnell has a good feel and control of the strike zone along with “natural hitting abilities.” He generates plus-power from core strength and good bat speed. Although he has a strong arm, his defensive is sketchy. Some scouts believe he could play second. Has good potential, but may be a late bloomer. May get a shot in September 2011, possibly sooner, but don’t quote me.

Mike Baxter | RF/1B | D.o.B: 12-7-84 | Stats (AAA): .301/.382/.517 | 482 AB | 58 XBH | 18 Hr | .216 ISO | 22/10 SB/CS | 78:58 K:BB | .326 BABIP
There isn’t a scouting report from Baseball America, John Sickels or Keith Law. However, I see him challenging for a spot during Spring Training. Clark has some speed that most first basemen wouldn’t have (10 triples and 22 steals); he does play the outfield as well. He did receive nine (9) nondescript plate-appearances in the majors. He has some power, good plate discipline and average speed. He’s probably more of a “tweener” – Quad-A type player – who could provide value as a fourth outfielder.

Pitchers
#6 Cory Luebke | LHP | D.o.B: 3-4-85 | Stats (AA/AAA): 6.9 K/9 | 2.3 BB/9 | 114 IP | 2.40 ERA (AA); 2.97 ERA (AAA) | 2.87 FIP (AA); 3.91 FIP (AAA) | 1.28 WHIP | .6 Hr/9 | 6.6 H/9 | .253 BABIP (AA); .233 BABIP (AAA)
Throws a 90 to 92 MPH fastball, a solid slider and a mid 80s changeup. He projects as a number three starter in the majors. He threw 56 1/3 innings at Double-A and 57 2/3 innings at Triple-A along with 17 1/3 innings at the major league level. He was aided by an extremely low BABIPs in the minors and I wouldn’t expect that to carry over to the majors, subsequently, his ratio stats may dip. In the minors, his career K/9 rate was 7.5 along with a 2.1 BB/9 rate. In the majors, those 17 odd innings, he posted a 9.1 K/9 and a 3.1 BB/9 rate but gave up three home runs during his short stint. I would imagine somewhere near a 7 K/9 with good control – 3.0 BB/9 – during the 2011 season in the majors. Look for him to win a spot out of Spring Training.

#2 Simon Castro | RHP | D.o.B: 4-9-88 | Stats (AA): 7.4 K/9 | 2.5 BB/9 | 129 2/3 IP | 2.92 ERA | 3.32 FIP | 1.10 WHIP | .6 Hr/9 | 7.4 H/9 | .277 BABIP
Castro is one of the several exciting pitching prospects for the 2011 season. His peak fastball notches between 95 and 96 MPH (a drop of the 2009 report of 97 to 98 MPH), but typically throws his fastball between 92 to 93 MPH with good “life” down in the zone. Castro’s strikeout rate dropped from a career rate of 9.1 K/9 to 7.5 K/9 this past year, but his control improved from a career mark of 3.2 BB/9 down to 2.5 BB/9. His seasons at Double-A produces a lot of excitement for the 2011, however, during his brief appearance at Triple-A, Castro struggled to the tune of 5.2 K/9, 5.2 BB/9, 13.9 H/9 in 10 innings. Baseball America predicts Castro to be a number three starter or a top closer. See Scouting the Unknown article for more details.

#2 (via Boston) Casey Kelly | RHP | D.o.B: 10-4-89 | Stats (AA): 7.7 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 95 IP | 5.31 ERA | 4.03 FIP | 1.61 WHIP | .9 Hr/9 | 11.2 H/9 | .366 BABIP
Grey went over his expectations of Kelly’s fantasy value last week. What does Kelly provide? A fastball that tops out between 93 to 94 MPH but is worked around the 89 to 92 MPH range with good sinking and cutting action. He also throws an “above-average changeup … a 12-to-6 curveball with plus-potential.” Baseball America calls him a “frontline starter,” and John Sickels says nothing on his long term outlook besides calling him a “B+ prospect.” Could he be a right-handed Barry Zito? Wouldn’t surprise me.  Of course, I mean the Oakland years.

Honorable Mention
Hitters
#29 Matt Clark | 1B | D.o.B: 12-10-86 | Stats (AA): .269/.339/.485 | 499 AB | 51 XBH | 28 Hr | .216 ISO | 0/0 SB/CS | 146:47 SB/CS | .322 BABIP
Clark is getting a brief mention because he could get an extended look in Spring Training due to his power potential. He has a long swing (note the strikeouts) but tremendous power. According to John Sickels, “Scouts still wonder how his swing will work once he gets to Double-A, and we should find out about that out in 2010.” It went about as well as he expected (reduced average and OBP after leaving the friendly confines of the California League). Not athletic, nor fast enough to play the outfield, where his strong arm would play well, Clark’s plus-plus power projects better in the American League. Clark could provide some intriguing darkhorse power in the majors, albeit with a horrendous average.

#7 (via Boston) Reymond Fuentes | CF | D.o.B: 2-12-91 | Stats (A): .270/.328/.377 | 373 AB | 25 XBH | 5 Hr | .107 ISO | 42/5 SB/CS | 87:25 K:BB | .338 BABIP
Because everyone will ask; Fuentes, cousin of Carlos Beltran, is compared to Johnny Damon. Baseball America states he has a “polished bat … plus-plus speed … Gold Glove defense … contact swing … working on base stealing.” Sickels repeats much of the same information but notes his strike zone judgment is lacking. Another comparison would be Jacoby Ellsbury. He has 10 to 15 home run power potential, along with 50 steals potential to be combined with a decent average (.290 to .310). His ETA would be 2012 at the earliest.

Pitchers
Erik Davis | RHP | D.o.B: 10-8-86 | Stats (A+/AA/AAA): 8.4 K/9 | 3.0 BB/9 | 143 IP | 3.52 ERA | 3.20 FIP (A+); 2.74 FIP (AA); 4.20 FIP (AAA) | 1.27 WHIP | .4 Hr/9 | 8.4 H/9 | .340 BABIP (A+); .269 BABIP (AA); .220 BABIP (AAA)
I truly wanted to list him in the group above, but he only threw 44 1/3 innings about High-A with 39 1/3 of those innings at Double-A. Davis pitched well in a hitter-friendly league at High-A, and only improved from there. His scouting report is lacking due to BA and John Sickels not listing him in their handbooks. He was old for his league, but still has some potential for value due to the strikeouts and the seemingly sustainable ratios. Look for him to return to Double-A in 2011 with a late-summer or injury call up.

Juan Oramas | LHP | D.o.B: 5-11-90 | Stats (A+): 9.6 K/9 | 2.8 BB/9 | 84 IP | 3.00 ERA | 3.71 FIP | 1.07 WHIP | 1.1 Hr/9 | 6.9 H/9 | .269 BABIP
Oramas is like Davis – lacking insider scouting. He benefited by having a low BABIP, but his high-strikeout rate, control, low amount of hits, and his age would lead me to believe he could rise up the prospect rankings in the next two years. One negative would be the rate of home runs (1.1 Hr/9) allowed and the length of his starts (~4 innings per start; 21 starts in 84 innings, with five relief appearances in 15 innings at Single-A).

Evan Scribner | RHP | D.o.B: 7-19-85 | Stats (AA): 11.0 K/9 | 2.0 BB/9 | 66 IP | 2.59 ERA | 2.84 FIP | 1.00 WHIP | .8 Hr/9 | 7.0 H/9 | .300 BABIP
Scribner etched out 16 saves for the Padres Double-A affiliate, his second year at this level. He has middle reliever (read: mop-up reliever) written all over him. Could provide nice ratios if given the chance. Remember, Luke Gregerson wasn’t a heralded prospect and is now a bullpen stalwart. Maybe, just maybe, Scribner could have some Gregerson-like success.