Fantasy Baseball Advice

Ok, every season there’s some flat-out surprises, but one I haven’t heard too much about this year is Johan Santana’s fairly subpar performance. This was a guy that everyone and their drunk, Irish mother-in-law told you to draft because Johan Santana was headed for a ‘68 Bob Gibsonian season. He’s headed to the Mets; Johan’s going to get a .65 ERA! Yesterday, Santana gave up three runs on twelve hits with one K through seven innings, which was a quality start according to Major League Baseball and Kyle Kendrick. No one else considers that quality, maybe quantity. I don’t think you should necessarily trade Johan, but he’s not exactly carrying fantasy teams with his pitching. Wasn’t that the point of drafting him in the first round? He’s sitting at 5-2/3.36/1.18/58 through ten games. You know what those numbers do to me? They yawnstipate me. Not quite yawn-inducing, but pretty close. The thing is… Wait for it… Here it comes… Everyone thinks he’s the number one pitcher. Every. One. Imagine your brain is a dirty alley with a bum urinating in the corner and there’s graffiti on the walls. Written in giant, spraypainted bubble letters, it says “Johan is the best pitcher.” (And it’s tagged by Señor Razz.) So if you have Johan Santana, Marcum and Billingsley on your staff, you’re stacked like Dolly Parton lying on a bed of pancakes. I say move Johan for a first round hitter. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Corey Hart - I was adding Corey Hart into Friday afternoon’s Buy and Sell post as a Buy, but he beat me to the punch. I doubt any of his owners are looking to sell him now. Sometimes time sensitive material spoils. C’est la vie.

Chris Young - To the 15-DL, hopefully he’s fine when he returns. I hate to see things like that… Oh, who am I kidding? I watched the replay seventeen times. It was wonderful! (BTW, when I was watching the Padres game the night it happened, they would not show the replay. They were making like it was the part of Faces of Death II when the guy eats the live monkey brain then vomits on a corpse.)

Victor Martinez - Left the game with an index finger injury. Hey, Victor, I’ve got a middle finger for ya.

Miguel Olivo - Looks like he’s not missing those Miguel Cabrera’s hugs as much as I hoped when I picked him up on my Razzball team. He has 6 home runs and I’m moving my crazy Dioner Navarro love to Olivo. I know, I’m flaky when it comes to catchers, but they’re a dime a dozen and sometimes you gotta rotate your junk. Um, so to speak.

Joe Borowski - Headline: He’s set to return as the closer. Sub-headline: Indians’ opponents just need to keep it close.

Roy Oswalt - Obviously, when Kyle Kendrick out pitches you, there’s problems. Oswalt strikes me as a guy who wouldn’t want anesthesia during a visit to the dentist cause he likes to feel the drill. He could be playing with a serious injury to his hip that is affecting his push off. I wouldn’t be surprised if the ‘Stros push him to a DL stint pretty soon.

Aaron Harang - Are you kidding me? He should’ve thrown a shutout against the Padres. Away I say thou artless dizzy-eyed, maggot-pie. Fetch me some drool, it would be an improvement on ye crapeth soul! (Oops, I thought it said harangue.)

Khalil Greene - Hit two home runs yesterday, ya gotta have some Bahá’í Faith. (I’ve never heard of the Bahá’í Faith, but I think it might have something to do with all of the accents and apostrophes. I think if Christianity or Judiasm or Islam or the Others had that many accents and apostrophes there wouldn’t be half as many participants. I think if Bahá’í Faith were to hire a savvy marketing team, the first thing they’d do is drop the extra punctuation. Or maybe throw a “Forever” at the end of it so people could abbreviate it BFF. Now I could totally see people embracing BFF, there would probably be a castmate on next season’s Real World who was a devout BFFer, and she would cheat on her boyfriend of six years after one episode of the show. Not to say a BFFer would be prone to that sorta thing, but Real World castmates are. But I digress.)

Mike Lowell - Hit a home run yesterday. He’s still got it.

Jacques Jones - He’s getting the call and should start against righties. Best thing I can say is he made for a fun ancillary character in Fantasyland.

Clayton Kershaw - He was pulled from his Double-A start and it’s rumored he’ll make the Dodgers start in place of Penny on Saturday. Add him immediately! Unless of course you play in Yahoo leagues, where he’ll be found sitting between Harvey the Rabbit and Sammy Sosa’s pre-steroids, home run power.

Manny Acosta called into Razzball HQ yesterday. Here’s what he had to say, “Upon returnance, John Smoltz can have closer job back. Upon Soriano’s returnance, he can have setup role. Gonzalez wants eighth inning and lefty specialist role? He have it. I’m not a lefty anyway. I wish only good happenings to Mr. Cox, my family, my team and Jesus Cristo. I request Cox do closer by committee until Smoltz returns, because that is the most democratic. Now put me in the sixth inning, so I can avoid this mess. I wish to chillax. I have myself on one fantasy team, and let me say this, ‘I drop myself.’ Now vote Obama!” There you have it, folks. Razzball’s first big scoop. If that doesn’t make us hotter than baby stew, I don’t know what does. Not only has Acosta dropped himself, but he’s also voting Democrat. Anyway, here’s what else I saw:

Royce Ring - Relieved Acosta. I don’t think he’s going to have much value going forward. He’s a lefty specialist, ya’ll.

Jeff Bennett - Relieved Royce Ring retiring rast Radre (okay, a little forced on the alliteration). I have him on one team. The team I’m hoping sucks. Then again, I have Carlos Silva on that team and he only gave up one run against the Mariners. Then again, it was the Mariners.

Buddy Caryle - If The Kouz would’ve reached, Buddy would’ve joined the closer committee. Officially, the Bravos bullpen is filled with options, which makes the Acosta option weak at best. Wait, Acosta’s calling in again, “I told ya. Not interested in closing. Tooooo stressful. And put five ohs on ‘too.’”

Gavin Floyd - *SPOILER ALERT* He’s still not good. Let me put it this way, if he would’ve got a no-hitter, I still wouldn’t have picked him up in any leagues. He’s not a hidden gem that can replace Gallardo or Hill or Smoltz or any other starter you’ve recently lost.

Aaron Harang - Can’t blame him, he pitched well enough to win. Imagine a world where Harang pitched for the Yankees. Now imagine the Yankees played in Petco. Harang’d win twenty-five and would have already dumped Alyssa Milano like three times. Alas, the Reds score no runs every fifth day.

Ben Francisco - He can do what I thought The Big FraGu could do, but he’s going to be doing it in the same crowded outfield so he may not get enough at-bats. If he does get at-bats, he could get to 15/15 and he’s actually already in Yahoo — woo-hoo! But you don’t necessarily want him just yet, except in the deepest of leagues.

Shawn Hill - *looking for positives* Bunch of rinky-dink hits. *looking at negatives* Needs to be more economical. It’s not like he’s striking people out and he’s barely getting through the fifth.

Jacques Jones - Word he might pop up on the Padres or the Marlins. As Chicago once sang, “Look away, baby, look away.” (BTW, I wish Jones pronounced his first name like that black dude from The Real World: San Diego. That’s it; just felt like saying that.)

Wilfredo Ledezma - He’s already gone in my NL-Only league. Why? Cause he’s now the Padres’ fifth starter. Any Padres starter has value because of their home park. He replaces Germano in the rotation. And he begins dating Alyssa Milano by July.

Brian Bannister - This is closer to the type of pitcher he is, not the April guy who everyone was picking up.

Manny Corpas - Struckout Pujols. Sure, it was in the seventh inning, but I wouldn’t count him out just yet.

Felipe Lopez - Oh-for-five with four strikeouts — that’s razztastic.

Orlando Hudson - O-Dog’s hamstring is barking. He didn’t look good on Monday when he was in the starting lineup so it’s not surprising that he was sitting out yesterday’s game.

Austin Kearns - You’re not roping me in this time, Kearns. No, sir. (But he does go on hot streaks and hits home runs in bunches and he just hit a home run and… Oh, he’s roping me in again. I need a support group. Austin’s Kids? The Kearns Trauma Unit? Second Degree Kearns? I don’t know. Rudy probably will come up with something.)

Jhonny Peralta - I like seeing someone batting .219 in May. They’re due. But he’s not exactly a .300 hitter.

Jason Giambi - I really like seeing someone bat .157. But he’s not exactly a .260 hitter.

Robinson Cano - Also batting .157 (weird!). But he’s not exactly Actually, he is better. So what, he bats .310 the rest of the way? .320?

Scott Olsen - I gotta be honest, I kinda wrote him off this year, but he’s always had talent. Opponents are batting .186 against him, but his K/BB is not good and BB/9 isn’t either. A correction could be coming.

Jonathan Sanchez - He gets the Phillies next. I say, no thank you.

Josh Hamilton - If he can steer clear of injuries and crack-cocaine, he could hit 35 in Texas. But, and this is simply hypothetical, if he were to smoke crack-cocaine, I think his power would remain, but he’d probably show flashes of speed. That’s right, Josh Hamilton’s a 35/20 player if he relapses. Downside, rehab group with Dwight Gooden. Upside, first round selection next year. That’s a coin flip if I’m his agent.

Andruw Jones - Batted second yesterday. All I have to say is, “Ha!”

Blake DeWitt - Now has two home runs in two days. Tonight’s was of the inside the park variety. He doesn’t have much upside.

Santiago Casilla - Now has a save to go with his perfect ERA. Huston Street loses a fibula or some shizz by the All-Star break and he’s closing.

Jeff Mathis - Now in a 3-for-28 slump. In the world of catchers who aren’t owned, I like Dioner Navarro.

Stephen Drew - Fourth home run, should be owned in all leagues. Well, not all leagues, cause there are some that only play with the American League guys.

Ryan Ludwick - Let’s assume LaRussa’s hitting the juice again, but even he has to see Ludwick deserves to be in the starting lineup.

AJ Burnett - How about this line: 6 IP, 10Ks, 9 hits, 5 earned runs. Looked like half the team couldn’t figure him out and the other half couldn’t wait to face him.

Carlos Pena - Almost forty strikeouts. Cust kayin’.

Nate McLouth - Nine home runs?! He’s like Andy Van Slyke’s kid brother. All he needs is a prima donna LF.

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Detroit Tigers preview.)

Detroit Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski wasted no time in working to get his club back into the playoffs in 2008. After Detroit’s surprise run to the World Series in 2006 and disappointment in missing the postseason in 2007, Dombrowski did not even wait for the Boston Red Sox to lose the rosy glow of their championship before he completed his first acquisition of the offseason. Trading two major-league-ready prospects and a young center fielder to Atlanta, Dombrowski brought Edgar Renteria to Detroit so he could move shortstop Carlos Guillen from shortstop — where he was a liability — to first base — where he should be able to hold his own. But that was just the start. While his next move brought Jacque Jones from Chicago to platoon in left field with Marcus Thames, giving the Tigers quite a bit of production at that corner, Dombrowski’s acquisitions at the Winter Meetings in December fired a shot across the bow of the elite teams of the league. A little prodding by one of Dombrowski’s assistants revealed Florida would entertain a trade of superstar third baseman Miguel Cabrera to the Tigers, so long as A-list prospects Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin were shipped to southern Florida. A little bit of negotiating by the sides resulted in former Cy Young candidate Dontrelle Willis‘ name being mentioned as well. And in just a day, young stars Cabrera and Willis were headed to The D, while fans of the Tigers’ minor league organization were left scratching their heads
wondering who remained. It was clear: the Tigers are being built to win now. With Willis’ contract already extended and Cabrera’s agent currently discussing a deal with the Tigers, winning for years in the future may not be out of the question either. In a short two months and some-odd days, the Tigers announced to the league they were an elite team.

The offense is compared to the great Yankees’ Murders Row — but that might be getting a bit too excited. Some analysts believe the Tigers could join the rare air of scoring 1,000 runs in a season. That, too, may be getting a bit too far ahead. But no matter, Detroit should have the best offense in the American League Central Division and quite likely the major leagues. If Gary Sheffield is able to come back from minor shoulder surgery and pick up near where he left off last season, the Tigers could expect to score 900-plus runs for the year. Sheffield will hit third in the lineup, just behind 20 double, 20 triple, 20 home run and 20 steals center fielder Curtis Granderson and the patient, high-average hitting Placido Polanco. Behind Sheffield will be 2007 A.L. batting champion Magglio Ordonez, with possible future Hall of Famer Cabrera falling all the way to fith in the batting order. He will be followed by Carlos Guillen, Renteria and at eighth, a Pudge Rodriguez who claims to be looking for more pitches this year and benefitting from a tough offseason workout. Jones or Thames may help set the table at ninth. For left-handed pitchers, this lineup is a nightmare. But with high OPS posted against righties from top-to-bottom as well, Detroit will score its fair share of runs this season.

The defense may not be the best in the league, but it should be good enough to give the Tigers a shot to win on most days. Justin Verlander leads the rotation, followed by Kenny Rogers, who hopes to come back from an injury-plagued year, Jeremy Bonderman, who also hopes to come back from an injured pitching elbow that caused his ERA to skyrocket in the second half, and some combination of Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson. Willis will boucne back from a disastrous 2007 in Florida, as he no longer needs to be the ace and does not have to rely on pinpoint placement of the baseball — which he did not provide in 2007 anyway. Robertson, too, hopes to bounce back from a season that saw him placed on the disabled list for fatigue. Obviously, the Tigers must have a healthy season from four of the five starters if they hope to compete at the highest level, as the minor leagues provide little depth and little trade bait.

Relief pitching has been the spring training story to watch — aside from the Brandon Inge saga, which will be detailed later in this story. Todd Jones feels he does not have the strength in his arm he needs. As a closer, he frightened Tigers fans already. If he cannot serve up anything but gopher balls, Detroit will need to make a move fast. Setupman Fernando Rodney will start his season on the disabled list as he struggles with tendinitis. The other setup man, Joel Zumaya, required surgery on his throwing shoulder after a box fell on it while he helped his father move valuables away from their house as the San Diego fires approached. He hopes to be back by midseason and appears to be progressing well toward that goal. This leaves Detroit manager Jim Leyland scratching his lighter to find late-inning pitching. Denny Bautista, acquired from Colorado in the offseason, may help. He is known for his control issues, but has so far appeared to have put that past him in spring training. The final bullpen spot may go to Aquilino Lopez, or it may go to Yorman Bazardo, who is also sore this spring. The lefty relievers will be Tim Byrdak and Bobby Seay, who both had fine showing in 2007. Meanwhile, Jason Grilli and Zach Miner appear to be the long relievers, though Leyland at one point thought Miner could be a closer.

In the field, Detroit looks be have broken even with last season, or improved slightly. Cabrera is a step back from Inge’s terrific third-base defense. But Renteria should be a step above Guillen, who consistently suffered from sore knees and could not make the plays he could in his earlier years. Guillen has played first before — including during the 2006 postseason run — and should provide as good or better defense than Sean Casey did in 2007. Gold glove second baseman Polanco did not make an error in 2007. The outfield is led by Granderson in center field. He should receive gold glove looks. Just tune in to SportsCenter to see why. Left field and right field are nothing special, but Thames/Jones and Ordonez are at least capable.

The Inge soap opera will be one to follow this season. He neither wants to provide the role of super sub, which he can do quite well as a guy who can play 8 positions, nor does he want to backup Rodriguez as catcher. He asked for a trade, then backed off that, though the Tigers are currently looking for a deal that would benefit both Inge and themselves. That may come closer to the trade deadline as a contending team might find itself in need of third base help. Until then, fans hope he remains quiet and does what is asked of him.

In summation, this is a team capable of winning the World Series in 2008, but due to its age and lack of depth could be a disappointment as well. As long as it only absorbs one or two key injuries during the course of the season, it should return to the postseason in any case, where anything can happen.

Some Tigers to think about in your fantasy draft:

Miguel Cabrera — third base — He should actually not see dropoff, as Comerica Park has become a much more hitter-friendly ballpark. He’ll score runs and have plenty of RBI opportunities, as well as hit his 30 homers.

Carlos Guillen — shortstop/first base — he will play first base this season, but he should remain eligible for shortstop in most leagues and provides a decent start if you miss out on the top tier performers at the position.

Magglio Ordonez — Probably — OK, honestly won’t — can’t repeat his 2007 season, but he should hit for average, drive in a good number of home runs and get gobs of RBIs in a lineup you can’t pitch around him.

Curtis Granderson — I wouldn’t take him too early, but if you are a manager who likes to platoon, put him in your lineup any day the Tigers play a right-handed pitcher and you’ll get great performance. Probably not 20 triples this season, but plenty of steals and runs to go with a decent number of home runs and RBIs.

Pudge Rodriguez — In all reality, you don’t want to grab him as your starting catcher at this point in his career. But if you’re looking for a backup with some potential to surprise, I think he will improve over his 2007 season. He believes he can continue catching for a few years, and he will be a free agent after this season. He has something to prove, and I for one think you don’t bet against him.

Justin Verlander — Not a top tier starting pitcher — he doesn’t get enough strikeouts for that — but he’ll get his 17 or so wins and post a low WHIP and ERA.

Jeremy Bonderman — In the leagues I’ve participated in, he has gone way too late. If Bonderman has come back from his injury healthy, and that does appear to be the case, he’ll have near 200 strikeouts again while posting an ERA around 4 and at least 15 wins.

Dontrelle Willis — Take a late-inning stab. I think he’ll surprise you.

Denny Bautista — Could get some holds, should be available in the last round if you need that stat, and if he has found his control, could end up closing if Jones falters due to his age.

Kurt runs Mack Avenue Tigers and, inspired by writing this piece, wrote a piece that looked at the fantasy prospects for every player expected to make the Tigers’ 25-man roster.

The Hot Stove heats up as the Cubs make room in their overcrowded outfield. Jacques Jones, reluctant underachiever of Fantasyland, was traded yesterday and, frankly, it’s two years too late. What this means for the teams involved:

Cubs:
Barring a trade for an outfielder, there might finally be room in the outfield for Matt Murton. Then again, Murton must have slept with Piniella’s wife because he was benched last season for Craig Monroe (who has since been traded, as well). Craig Monroe of a career .749 OPS. Can Murton succeed as a full-time player? He knows how to take a walk, has moderate speed and moderate power. I could see him going 20/12 with a .280 average over 500 at-bats. 20 homers being on the low end and 12 steals being on the high end. People in a NL-only league should take a late round flier on him. Of course, keep a close eye on the goings-on in Spring Training.

In other Cubs news, Omar Infante was the player taken in return for Jacques Jones. This says more about the quality of Jacques Jones’s play than about anything that could be written, but here goes…

Tigers:
Jacques Jones hit five home runs in 453 at-bats. He would be a fourth outfielder for the lowly Pirates. On the Tigers, let’s hope Jones is merely a stopgap to Cameron Maybin and not a stop sign.

In other Tiger news, Todd Jones was reupped. Luckily, it was simply a one year contract. After Joel Zumaya hurt himself carrying helado home from Pathmark, it was expected that the Tigers would try and get one more year from Jones.