The DL slot in many fantasy leagues is one of the most misused and misunderstood positions on fantasy baseball teams. For most people, it’s believed to be where the hopes and dreams of their teams like Mike Morse, Chris B. Young (or if you like your KFC version, it’s Krispie Young) and Jacoby Ellsbury go to die while you go stick your head in the proverbial oven…or the literal oven, depending on how much you’re into this game. For others, they see it for what it could and should always be used for: an empty bench spot. To put it in literary canonical terms, it’s not just there for Paradise Lost, it’s also there for Paradise Regained (PS, I was an English major in college. PSS, I didn’t read either, that is what Cliff’s Notes is for. PSSS, now don’t tell me how bad my grammar is as I only read Chaucer, I didn’t write it. PSSSS, don’t get an English degree, you won’t use it unless you plan on teaching or being homeless.). Not only can you sock away one of your already owned injured players here, you can also put your imagination to the test when your team is healthy and use the spot or spots for a big dive into the ‘what if?’ pool. Don’t get too wrapped up on the concept that the player may or may not come back successfully. That is not the point. The point is you don’t know what your team is going to look like in a week, a month or two months which means you don’t know if some guy that is on the DL could make an impact for your team when they come back. With that, let’s get started on the first batch of players that are less than 50% owned in ESPN, Yahoo and Fleaflicker leagues:
Lorenzo Cain (ESPN 5.9%/Yahoo 15%/Fleaflicker 29%): March Grey told you to buy him and now whenever this gets posted ONC is telling you to stash him if you can. He was recently sent to rehab which is worrisome. I didn’t think he was friends with Josh Hamilton *re-reads news blurb* Ah, he’s been sent on his rehab assignment to double-AA as of April 22nd and there is hope he’ll be back within a week. If your DL spot is lonely, give it a little Sugar!
Mike Carp (ESPN 1.7%/Yahoo 13%/Fleaflicker 16%): It’s hard to tell which Carp is going to show up at your door. Will it be the one pan-seared in butter with rosemary and thyme that gave us a .322 average and 8 homers from July through August of 2011 or will he be the September Carp that your cat found in your neighbor’s trash can and drop a .230 average on you while still hitting 4 bombs? And was that first analogy delicious or what? The power is real, the average should be about .270′ish and he should be back as soon as he demonstrates he can play something other than DH. Go Fish!
Freddy Sanchez (ESPN 0.4%/Yahoo 2%/Fleaflicker 2%): This one may be more of a deep league or NL-Only call, but all I can say is he can hit .300 while providing a decent amount of runs with little to no power nor speed. Wanna know who that reminds me of? Daniel Murphy, the guy who’s hitting .321 who has scored 5 runs and has a 0/0 in the homerun and stolen base department through 14 games and is owned at a 92.6% clip over at ESPN. You say poh-tay-toe I say tubers because I like being difficult. He is set to begin his rehab assignment on April 23rd. If you’re in need, there are worse things you can do to your middle infield than give it a Freddy Sanchez.
Brian Wilson is donzo. I called this one about 48 hours prior. You can put it on the beard…. Goodbye! The crizzappy thing for me is I told everyone to pick up Santiago Casilla to replace Wilson, and I picked him up too. I mean, I literally grabbed Casilla while the trainer was looking at Wilson’s arm on Thursday. So, of course, I dropped Casilla when Wilson was supposedly okay on Friday and Rudy grabbed him on Saturday before I could. *shakes fist* Rudy! No one really knows who’ll follow in Wilson’s non-conformist footsteps. He leaves a long shadow that smells of dirty socks. Sergio Romo has been a great MR for a couple years, while Casilla is rumored to be the favorite and Bochy brought him into the 8th in a tie game on Saturday. The mystery of ‘Who replaces Wilson?’ is trapped inside Bochy’s enormous head. To get the answer, you have move Bochy’s head like one of those wooden labyrinth marble mazes and hope the answer comes out his mouth and not one of the other holes. I’d grab Casilla and Romo, in that order. I actually even grabbed Affeldt for situational saves, but I realized I couldn’t speculate that deep — don’t have the bench room, yo — so I lost him. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:
Jacoby Ellsbury – That hard C you heard was the crunch of Brignac falling on a crapton of fantasy baseballers’ (<–my mom’s term!) number one outfielder. Doctors are saying Ellsbury has a subluxation, laymen are saying he has a dislocation of the shoulder, my Asian woman neighbor who’s always working on her lawn said, “Potato-potahto, you’re screwed.” For the next six to eight weeks, he’s D’Ellsburied. If he fails to respond to rest, there’s a chance he’ll need season-ending surgery. I say put a cone on his head and shove him in a dog crate. Gotta respond to that kind of rest. If you owned Ellsbury, you should be able to find steals — SAGNOF! — on waivers. His combo on speed, power, runs, RBIs, average… Well, it’s a bitter pill(sbury) to swallow.
Jason Repko – 0-for-3, as he started yesterday in CF for the Sawx. Jason Repko is the answer to the question, “Who is Jason Repko?” “Who’s the thirty-one year old has-been in the outfield?” “This is the Red Sox depth?” and “Wait, what?”
Mike Aviles – 1-for-4 and his 2nd homer in as many games after he took over the leadoff spot. In the big picture, I’m not a fan of Aviles, but if you have a slow starting MI photobombing your big picture, I could see working with Aviles. Just don’t be jockin’ Mike Aviles to my dismay.
Cody Ross – 1-for-2, 3 RBIs and his 2nd homer in as many games. No one really likes a Cody, except Kathie Lee, but if he’s hitting there’s that. BTW, with Big Papi, Youk, Ross, Aviles, Shoppach and Repko in the starting lineup yesterday, is it me or does it seem like Theo was secretly replaced by Brian Sabean?
David Wright – Decided to play through the pain and homered on Saturday, and has gone 5-for-9 in his two games back. I don’t know. I’m trying not to be a Mets player hater here, as I’ve been accused of in the past, but here’s my take. I think Wright’s a gamer. He’s shown it in the past. At one point in 2009, he was battling concussion symptoms, lingering groin soreness, a flu and a strain behind his knee all at the same time. And he still got on the field. Can I dig it? Yes, I can. He’s like the “It’s merely a flesh wound” guy. But he still hit 10 homers that year in 144 games. I’d be concerned that he’s playing with a broken pinkie and it’s not healing properly, so it ends up costing his numbers in the long run.
Ike Davis – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs and his first homer. I gotta say, people in the comments talking about dropping Ike Davis after 10 days of games is a bit crazy. If he hits 3 more homers in April (still have half a month!), he’s on pace for 24 homers for the year. Isn’t that kinda what you expected from him?
Brandon Belt – 1-for-3 with a steal with the start. Bochy’s marble must’ve fell out the right hole.
Ryan Vogelsong – 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks vs. the Pirates. In the rankings, I wrote something about how Vogelsong would be a solid spot starter against weaker offenses. And that’s me paraphrasing me!
Matt Moore – 6 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 12 baserunners, 5 Ks. Now has 9 walks in 13 innings. Did Ollie Perez and Matt Moore make a wish while peeing in the same fountain?
Luke Scott – 1-for-4 with a homer in two straight games. After Luke Scott hit a homer on Saturday, I grabbed him for Sunday’s game. He’s like a slightly less streaky, Carlos Pena. He can hit 8 homers in a month, then a buck twenty-five for another month, then get hurt during his home run trot. April looks like the month he hits 8 homers. Or April powers, bring May sours.
Hector Noesi – There are Noesi starts in MLB, but OAK @ SEA sure isn’t one of the hardest. That said, 8 shutout innings with 6 Ks is pretty sweet. He has potential to be the King of the Marginers. “I name this land, Pineiroton, after one of our forefathers.” That’s Noesi taking the King of the Marginers title a little too seriously.
Edwin Jackson – A complete game victory against the Reds with only 1 ER, 3 baserunners, and 9 Ks. Don’t get too excited. You take the win out of his name and you’re left with ‘Jacked, son.’ In shallow leagues, he’s a 6th SP or streaming candidate.
Omar Infante – 1-for-5 with his 4th homer. Eh, only 4 more than Stanton. I’m not bitter. Nah. I will now down a bottle of NyQuil and operate heavy machinery.
Hanley Ramirez – 7 for his last 9 with a homer. Hey, look what the cat dragged in –> 2010 Hanley.
Heath Bell – Could there be an easier save opp than a 3 run lead at the Crayola Canyon against the Lastros? If there is, let Heath Bell know because he could use it. Lucky for his owners, 2 of the runs were credited as unearned. Wouldn’t handcuff him yet, but I’d be a little more aggressive fishing for waiver saves if I owned him.
Brandon Beachy – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks, which comes after Mike Minor went 7 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 4 Ks on Saturday. If Leo Mazzone were around, he’d be on the bench rocking back and forth like The Masturbating Bear to the Braves young pitching.
Jason Heyward – 1-for-3 and his 2nd homer and he’s batting .345. After the first game of the season, I said some crazy thing like Heyward looks lost. Well, I’m a moron, similarly to Fredi, who insists on batting Heyward 7th. Move Heyward up!
Jonathan Lucroy – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 2nd homer. The other Brewers catcher, Kottaras, has three homers. So Kottaras and Lucroy combined have more homers than Pujols, Stanton, Longoria, Braun and Votto. Gotta love early season outliers.
Mike Leake – 6 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 8 baserunners, 1 K. This has no basis in fact, but it seems like Leake (which makes beautiful crystal) that he either has a 6 IP, 3 ER game or a 6 IP, 5 ER. That’s, uh, not so, uh, good for mixed leagues. In related news, Aroldis has 8 IP, 3 hits, no walks and 15 Ks on the year. In case you need that told to you with teenaged girl emphasis — 15 Ks!!! In, like, only 8 IP!!! Plenty gnar.
Dayan Viciedo – 1-for-4 yesterday with his second homer in three games. Viciedo is Latin for “I came, I hacked, I homered.”
Jason Kipnis – 3 for his last 7 with 2 homers. Here’s my Jason Kipnis fantasy because I don’t believe in throwing out the baby even after three Opening Days and eight total games for the Indians. Hey, I get it, I’m just as bad. In the my RCL, I’ve made 23 waiver wire moves (pretty much adding and dropping my UTIL guy cause I lost Chisenhall), but, well, go read this post.
Liam Hendriks – 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners (0 walks), 4 Ks. You know how next to the deli counter there’s a counter for starters who don’t walk or strikeout many guys and have more real world value than fantasy? The Twins order their meat from there.
Matt Carpenter – 4-for-4, 5 RBIs and a homer. He’s filling in for Berkman. Carpenter’s minor league numbers look kinda utility-man-ish, so if that’s anything like Omar Infante, he’ll hit 4 homers this week.
Jake Westbrook – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 2 Ks. And if the Twins buy their meat from the Hendriks’ section, the Cards buy their meat from Westbrook/Chris Carpenter section where pitchers are either the type no one wants that the Cards turn into aces or the aces they turn into meat.
Bryan Shaw – Recorded his 2nd save of the year yesterday. Now has more saves than Sean Marshall. David Hernandez and Putz were used the previous day (and were ineffective), but there’s nothing to see here (probably). Shaw may not get a nutter save this year.
Trevor Cahill – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 6 Ks in Coors. I know no one’s looking at rankings anymore because we’re a whole 9 games into a 162 games season, but I liked Cahill in the preseason. I still do.
Krispie Young – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and a slam & legs, hitting .364. This was his fourth homer… To tie Omar Infante! Since this is really all about me, Krispie is literally the only guy on my RCL team that is hitting. That is all. Literally.
Matt Kemp – 3-for-4 with his 6th homer. In the offseason, Kemp said he wanted to have a 50/50 season. I didn’t realize he meant in April.
Dee Gordon – 2-for-6 with his 6th and 7th steal. He really could steal 70 bases this year, as long as he doesn’t walk too close to a salad bar and someone mistakes him for a string bean.
Brett Myers – Astros are shopping around Myers. Hey, I got an idea. Trade him to the Nats for Lannan. Or the Giants, Marlins, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Rangers, Rays, Diamondbacks, Twins, back to the Astros… Is there any team that doesn’t need a closer?
Kyle Drabek – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 6 Ks. Now has an ERA of 1.42 on the year (okay, that’s through two starts). Small sample size, schmall schample schmize. He’s a former top prospect and you should grab him in case this is the breakout finally for this former-top-prospect-no-longer-a-prospect-maybe-is-showing-signs-of-being-a-top-prospect-again pitcher. I got all hyphenated there, the un-comma.
Brett Lawrie – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and his first homer on the year as he bats .306. No amount of hashtags is holding back our enthusiasm for Lawrie.
Edwin Encarnacion – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs and his third homer. What’s E5 doing at 1st? The answer, my friend, is the blowing from Lind.
Here’s a post that’s gonna make you wanna slap ya mama and call her Frances Fisher. The other day I told you how to draft your pitchers for 2012 fantasy baseball. I laid it out to you nice and simple (if you have a degree in “What The Hell Is Grey Talking About?” Not a PhD, mind you. Just a BS.) Today, we forget all that jabberwocky on the who-ha and get down to business old school-style (which means if you don’t comprehend, I will hit you over the head with a baseball bat signed by Joe Clark.) What I’m hoping to lay out to you is who do you draft 2nd if you’ve drafted so and so first. I think it might be helpful to go through pairings for your 5 outfielders, all your middle and corner infielders too. I’m not sure I’ll have the time or patience to do them though. We’ll see! Or not. Your choice. For easy reference, the royal we will be using the top 10 2012 fantasy baseball rankings and the top 20 2012 fantasy baseball rankings. I’m going to assume you’re in a 12 team, 5×5, MI, CI, 5 OF, 1 Utility, 1 Catcher league. Anyway, here’s some pairings for the first two rounds of 2012 fantasy baseball drafts:
Miguel Cabrera – I’d put him with just about anyone, but another 1st baseman. The reality of the situation is you want to get someone that is going to give you a few steals, say, 10. A third baseman would work, but it might be unrealistic to think you’re going to get Longoria. That leaves you with Wright. That doesn’t sound too shabby. Think about how for the last five years prior to 2011 and you would’ve loved to have Wright and Miggy on the same team. I say, live in the past and do it. But I’d say “Do it” like Ben Stiller in the Starsky & Hutch remake. Now it’s totally not ideal to grab Wright if you think Miggy will get 3rd base eligibility. Right now, I put it at about 85% that he will have 3rd base eligibility within a few weeks of Opening Day, so if you wanna grab an outfielder instead, I’m not hating the game or the playa (that’s not Spanish for beach). I say grab Andrew McCutchen or Jay Bruce. Wanna go for a 2nd baseman? Kinsler might be there. Swiggy with one of those three looks real nice to me. Your team would be balanced heading off to the third pick. Someone like Reyes or Hanley would also work, though they might not be there. Now, the risk with not grabbing a 3rd baseman is if Miggy starts treating grounders at third like they’re empty beer cans and starts booting them. Then you may have punted 3rd and Miggy is sent back to first before his 3rd base eligibility kicks in. Kicks being the operative word. Really, as long as you avoid a 1st baseman, catcher and a starter while getting some combo of power and speed, you should be fine. For those of you who are thinking you can grab a 1st baseman and then move Miggy to 3rd two weeks in, you’re screwed if Miggy doesn’t get 3rd base eligibility, even if that possibility is only slim. And, yes, that’s the only time Miggy and slim will ever be used in a sentence. In summation, don’t put unnecessary risk on the table in the first two rounds.
Albert Pujols – More or less the same deal as Miggy, obviously without the possible 3rd base eligibility caveat. I wouldn’t worry about anything other than trying to get a 2nd pick with at least 10 steals, and no 1st baseman, catcher or starter.
Joey Votto – You could pair Votto with Yuniesky Betancourt and you’d be fine. Votto’s that good. Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a number one pick next year. Let’s run away together, Joey! Wait, what am I saying? Oh, pairings, right. Yeah, you don’t want Votto with a 1st baseman, obviously. He’s similar to Miggy and Pujols. You want a third baseman, but he can work with just about anything.
Jose Bautista – Hey, something other than a 1st baseman. Yay, Joey Bats! Anyone but a 3rd baseman would work. You really want a 1st baseman. (This is a common theme. Leave the first two rounds with a 3rd baseman and a 1st baseman and you’re in better shape than the schmohawk who took Hanley and Cano.) Also, I worry that Bautista’s average might bottom out a little (to the .265 range), so I’d avoid a guy like Kinsler or Stanton. You don’t want to leave the 2nd round with a potential combined average of .260. If you take Baustista and a 3rd baseman because you think Bautista can play your outfield, you’re overthinking. Think of Bautista as a 3rd baseman. If during the season you need to put him in the outfield because you picked up a 3rd baseman off waivers, then more power to you. Right now you don’t put him in the outfield because then you’re only going to draft 4 outfielders and scrounge for a 3rd baseman. Your 3rd baseman is gonna be crap and you’re gonna end up with Bautista there anyway and you’re gonna be short at outfield. One thing you can do later on is draft a 3rd baseman at your corner infidel slot. Then if he does well, you can move him into 3rd, Bautista into your outfield and have the flexibility to grab a 1st baseman or 3rd baseman off waivers for your corner slot.
Evan Longoria – Since Longoria’s speed is a little wonky, I’d have no problem pairing him with a guy like Kemp, McCutchen or Reyes. Kemp might not be realistic though considering he’s been going first in some mocks. In my fantasy fantasy world, they’d both be there though. Same goes for Ellsbury. I’d even pair Longoria with Pedroia since he usually gives hella at-bats and a decent average. Someone like Kinsler or Stanton aren’t terrible, but you’re putting yourself in a potential average hole that you’ll need to dig out of later. Just keep in mind, Longoria’s average and steals may need help.
Matt Kemp – Position-wise, he doesn’t go with many. Stats-wise, he goes with everyone, except a pitcher. This is probably why he’s going number one overall in mocks. The problem with that is you draft Kemp and you have one outfielder but still need four more of those and have no infielders. That guarantees you will leave the 2nd round missing at least two of 2nd base, 1st base or 3rd base. In the best case scenario, you draft Kemp and Longoria or Wright, so you don’t have to worry about 3rd base. If you get Kemp and Longoria or Wright, you’ll need to pray your Hosmer, Konerko or other 1st base pick works out. Otherwise, it might be a long season. Remember, Hosmer looks great right now, but if he was a sure thing, he’d be going in the first round. If you can get Kemp and Prince Fielder, then more power to you, though that seems like a pipe dream in the mocks I’ve seen. Kemp and Kinsler is okay, but then you have no 1st baseman or 3rd baseman and you’ll be up against teams with Miggy, Pujols, Longoria, Prince etc. I.e., you’ll be doomed. Kemp plus another outfielder is you throwing in the towel after the first two rounds.
Troy Tulowitzki – This isn’t about pairing, but I don’t see how I’m going to draft Tulo in any league this year. Just going too early for my taste. Any the hoo! If I do, I’d give a lookie-loo to a 1st baseman or 3rd baseman, Sam I am, ma’am. Since Tulo is a power threat at a normally weaker position, I’d also take a speed/power outfielder (McCutchen, CarGo). You are dealing with more risk though if you go the speed route with your second pick because if Tulo craps out with another injury and you have, say, McCutchen, you may only get around 35 homers combined from your first two picks while Fielder can produce that by himself. I’d also be wary of going with CarGo. Not because of the team thing, but more because of the injury-prone thing. I don’t love the idea of Cano and Tulo. You’re all middle infield. Why don’t you just go and marry Adam Everett? Realistically, if you have to draft Tulo in the top 5 to get him, you’re gonna be looking at Wright, Beltre or Bruce at the end of the 2nd round. I’d take any of them, but now with Bruce, you will have no corner infidels. It’s precarious. (Do you see why I always try to go 1st base or 3rd base in the 1st round?)
Justin Upton – Upton is similar to Kemp. No outfielders with him. You really should take a corner man. Longoria’s great if he’s still there, Fielder will work wonders and clean up after himself!
Prince Fielder – I’d take Longoria with Fielder, I’d also take Fielder with Longoria. See how that works? Since Fielder is power first, I’d pair him with Reyes, Hanley or McCutchen too. He’s a similar pairing to Pujols and Miggy. Kinsler? Fine! Wright? Great! Instead of gum, chew bacon! It all works!
Adrian Gonzalez – He could have a bit more risk than Fielder on the average side, but for our purposes he’s nearly identical to Fielder in projections and pairing.
Robinson Cano – No Kinsler or Pedroia. Similarly to Tulo, since Cano is a power threat at a normally weaker position, I’d take a speed/power outfielder (McCutchen, CarGo), a 1st baseman or a 3rd baseman. I’d try to avoid Reyes or Hanley. You don’t want to have to scrounge together an outfield and two corners leaving the 2nd round.
Jacoby Ellsbury – You don’t want an outfielder. You can take Reyes, Hanley, Pedroia or Kinsler, but then you might only have 35-40 homers after two picks and some people are getting that with one pick. If a 1st baseman (Votto, Fielder) is there, then you just scored. If no one is there without reaching down to David Wright, you might have yourself a Javid Wrightsbury combo player that goes 60/60. Or you might get a player that hurts his hamstring and complains the fences are still too far, leaving you wanting Justdrian Gonzaton. (<–And that’s how you make an already confusing post, more confusing!)
It’s quite possible that Jacoby Ellsbury can provide more first round value than most any other player selected, especially if he goes late in the first.
I have been a huge Ellsbury supporter for some time, ranking him seventh before his disastrous 2010 campaign. I truly believed Ellsbury had elite talent and could improve upon his power. Of course, 2010 was a complete waste.
Then in 2011, no matter what format you played in, Ellsbury was a top performer (#2 on ESPN’s player rater, for what it’s worth). Depending on Ryan Braun’s suspension, I have Ellsbury 6th or 7th. Fleaflicker has him 7th overall.
Grey has him at 12 in his top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball, which is a travesty. Outside of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and Troy Tulowitzki, Ellsbury is the only surefire five category contributor. The only thing players like Fielder, Votto and Adrian Gonzalez have over Ellsbury is they will hit 10-15 more HRs and knock in 30 more runs. Ellsbury will pace them by a bunch of runs, out-steal them likes he’s the Hamburglar and they’re Grimace and bat for a better average. By my count, he wins 3 categories, while the slow lumbering 1Bs win two. Thanks to Sesame Street and the Count, I know 3 is greater than 2.
Let’s address the hesitancy surrounding Ellsbury, i.e., his power. His .230 ISO last year was leaps and bounds better than anything he ever did at any level (presumably since little league).
Will he hit 30+ HRs again in 2012?
No, I don’t think so (obviously it’s possible, but not overly plausible). Still, scouts have believed Ellsbury could settle into the high teens/low 20s in terms of HR output and that seems logical. I’ll pencil him in for 20 HRs.
So he needs to make up the value for a loss of 12 HRs. He’ll do so by getting on base consistently, to the tune of a .320 average and .370 OBP. With that, he’s a lock to score 100+ runs. Furthermore, in a potent Red Sox line-up, 75 RBIs seem to be a given, with significant upside there as well.
And with all that getting on base comes steals. In his last three full seasons, he has stolen 50, 70 and 39 bases. I think 40 is by far the low watermark, with 45-50 being a reasonable expectation. Again, he has upside.
There are very few first round picks with upside. Ellsbury has that. If I’m picking in drafts, I want to be later in the first round to secure Ellsbury and grab a slugger when it comes back to me. That’s a winning formula.
In short:
You want Ellsbury on your team, you need Ellsbury on your team. We use words like BABIP, FIP, RBI. We use these words as the backbone of a life spent on fantasy baseball…
Ellsbury is a few good men, um, man– Well, you get the idea.
The other day we went over the top 20 third basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball for our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings. Today, we turn our bejeweled eyeglasses to the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball. The top twenty outfielders will need to go to a top 40 then a top 60 then a top 80. Unfortunately, outfield is pretty shallow. Guess outfielders come in waves… much like sperm whales. Oofa! For five outfielder leagues, this really blows, which is only a positive if you’re a sperm whale. Zadow! As always, these top 20 outfielders are broken up into tiers with my projections. Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball:
7. Andrew McCutchen – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball. This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Pence. I call this tier, “These players. ‘What Grey wants in every league, Alex?’” The outfield isn’t quite as deep as it should be considering there’s three of these suckers playing at any given moment on all teams and the Reds have four.
9. Jay Bruce – What we got from Bruce last year may not have been totally Boss, but a guy that can give you a 30+ homer and 8+ steal season is valuable nowadays. If Bruce manages to pull a rabbit out of his hat, he could improve in all five categories and there will be a magician somewhere wondering why Jay Bruce has his rabbit. 2012 Projections: 90/34/100/.270/10
10. Josh Hamilton – I think the market has finally figured out Hamilton. No longer is everyone expecting a MVP season every time out. People have realized he’s Mr. Glass. When healthy, Hamilton hits homers and a solid average, runs and RBIs. When he’s not healthy, you plug in someone else. In 12 team mixed leagues, it’s much easier to do that than in deep AL-Only ones so keep that in mind when drafting. (In AL-Only leagues or any leagues with less waiver wire options, I’d move Hamilton down to the next tier.) 2012 Projections: 75/27/85/.295/7
12. Nelson Cruz – Take the above and just “find” Hamilton and “replace” with Cruz. I think the market has finally figured out Cruz. No longer is everyone–Well, you can do it on your own. 2012 Projections: 70/30/85/.260/10
12. Hunter Pence – He’s a square peg in this round tier. Everyone else in this tier has crazy upside and some potential pitfalls. Pence is steady as she goes, Raconteurs. Last year he hit a few less homers, but I could see him actually hitting a few more homers this year because he won’t be playing under the tyranny of the recently-exiled Ed Wade’s Toupee. (Was actually surprised Astros fans weren’t more excited about the disposal of the Toupee, but, then again, I don’t think there are Astros fans.) 2012 Projections: 95/25/100/.280/10
13. Curtis Granderson – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Victorino. I call this tier, “How is this tier different than all other tiers? This tier I’m going to pass over.” Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.
14. Matt Holliday – I’m done with Holliday until next year or the year after when he falls into the tier of outfielders with guys like Vernon Wells. He’s still too coveted for what he used to do rather than what he’s about to do. Oh, and please don’t ask in the comments if this means I would never draft Holliday. I would take Pence, Cruz and Bruce before him and I’ve seen Holliday taken before them, so how am I drafting Holliday? I’m not taking four outfielders in the course of one pick, i.e., I’m not drafting Holliday before others so I’m not getting him. Sorry to longtime readers who had to read that, but I feel like I always get these questions around the time of rankings. 2012 Projections: 85/24/90/.305/5
16. Shane Victorino – We had a good run. Victorino and I. It’s come to an end. Howard’s banged up, Utley’s a nail clipping incident away from the 15-day DL and Rollins has more miles on him than your Chrysler LeBaron. Victorino’s runs and RBIs will be affected. His speed is affected by his age, and he’s not a big power threat. If he falls far enough I could see maybe taking him, but it’s time to bid him aloha. The goodbye version of aloha, that is. 2012 Projections: 85/15/55/.275/20
17. Michael Morse – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here into the top 40 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “I’ll happily reach for one of these guys if I have to, in the non-sexual way. Though it’s kinda sad this is the third tier of outfielders that I’m excited about. Times is tough, yo.” Went over Morse’s projections at the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball post.
18. Desmond Jennings – I already went over my Desmond Jennings 2012 fantasy. While I wrote it, a leprechaun with a broken GPS looking for a rainbow appeared out my window. 2012 Projections: 80/16/65/.275/35
19. B.J. Upton – Honestly, I might be the only fantasy baseball ‘pert who doesn’t mind Fellatio Upton. Sure, he hits for a wonky average, but so does your mom. (Actually, I don’t know how well your mom hits for average. Though she looks like she can’t leg out many infield hits on those cankles.) Upton hits for power and steals bases. I’m willing to go out on a limb that he can luck into a .260 average one of these years with his wheels and still go 20/40. At 27 years of age, this is the year I’m betting on. 2012 Projections: 80/20/85/.250/40
20. Adam Jones – He has a few strikes against him. But games haven’t started yet?! Strikes against him was a figure of speech, Random Italicized Voice. Jones’s ground ball rate isn’t great, which makes me think we’ll need to be lucky to get over 25 homers and his walk rate is near abysmal. A guy that can give 25/12/.285 is valuable though in today’s bear market, which only sounds like a grocery store in The Castro. 2012 Projections: 80/25/90/.285/12
