What if we’re all living inside a Boston masshole’s dream? This is Inception, and we all fell asleep sometime after Tom Brady was drafted, but before the Patriots won their first Super Bowl. Then, due to some plantains you ate before you went to sleep, the Red Sox grabbed David Ortiz from Minnesota for nothing, and you got a kidney stone and were peeing blood but it all came out on Curt Schilling’s sock, and the Red Sox won the World Series, and then, because you fell asleep to The Apprentice, Trump became president, and now Andrew Benintendi goes 5-for-5, 1 run, 1 RBI, hitting .347. This has to be possible, doesn’t it? What if our world is like Herman’s Head, but we’re inside Prospector Ralph’s head? Is Somalia in a famine because Prospector Ralph is too worried about Rick Porcello and forgot to eat? Eat, Ralph! Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
28.4, 12.2, 21.4, 34.1, 24.9, 43.6, 28.7, 31.4. What Power Forward game log is this? You have a 7x day where he puts up 20 points and 15 rebounds, a day where he flopped hard because he got in foul trouble, and then a lot of 4x and 5x scores. Wait, what’s that? It is the last 8 games of Eric Thames? That’s absurd. I’m not even saying he’s a great play simply because of his last 8 games, but Adam Wainwright’s a decent innings muncher, who is losing the ability to get ground balls so Thames is in play again, even at his elevated price. Are we at the point where Thames is always in play because he’s a good hitter who obliterated the KBO and will spend 2017 obliterating major league pitching. I think the previous sentence answers your question. You might be asking where does Eric Thames rank in the greatest hitting seasons ever with a minimum 50 PAs? And I would tell you that it’s not first, it’s actually 2nd. Yes, Eric Thames 281 wRC+ ranks 2nd. That’s because Freddie Freeman this year has a 282. It helps when you decide that outs really aren’t your thing for 3 games. I’m also sure you are wondering who’s 3rd, and I will tell you that this year Bryce Harper is 3rd at 256. We’ve had some insane starts this year, but only one of them is making crotchety old pitching coaches and grumpy veteran pitchers subtly hint “things.”
On to the picks as soon as Freddie Freeman makes an out…wait, that may be a while…I’ll just do the picks now…Please, blog, may I have some more?
Joining Paul Hollywood at The Great Britton’s Brach Off is Orioles’ manager, Buck Showalter. Showalter said, “Craig Gentry (2-for-5, 3 RBIs) hit a home run with his leadoff Battenberg cake even if it is missing the mark on OBP, but I love its moistness, and I apologize for using the word moist.” Trey Mancini (3-for-5, 4 RBIs, and his 3rd and 4th homers) was crowned this week’s Star Baker, beating out Mark Trumbo (2-for-5, 1 run), who was in the cleanup spot, saying, “Why do these people have to use so many pots and pans?” The Great Britton’s Brach Off didn’t end without losing one baketestant. Zach Britton over-whisked his meringue and left with a forearm strain. The Brits are calling it, Zaxit. So, Britton will be out for at least ten days with Brad Brach filling in, behind Brach will be Darren O’Day, who sounds too IRA to me, then behind him will be Mychal Givens, who is Mike Tyson and Robin Givens’ child. Buck Showalter said he hopes Britton will be ready in ten days, but forearm strains don’t work that way, so you should grab Brach, at least. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Damn the Luniz bring back some great memories from High School, too bad $5 bucks today won’t even get you a quarter of a bag. Effin inflation, now I know how my parents felt when they used to tell me how they could get a Coke or a scoop of ice cream for $0.25. The good news is we can take $5 and turn it into $50 or $100 tonight if all goes right with this mix. The bad news is there’s only five games to roster from, so we’ve got a limited player pool to choose from. Coors is in play tonight, but I feel like the masses are going stacking and you know I like to zag when the play is to zig. I’m taking the top two arms tonight: Jon Lester, $22,000 vs the Dodgers and Jacob deGrom, $18,000 at Phillies. The Cubs are raising the World Series banner tonight and it’s the season opener in Wrigley. The Dodgers are going to be coming off that Rockie Mountain High and needless to say Wrigley will be electric tonight, (please let the stands be electric and not the weather). deGrom looked really good in his season opener, 6 innings, 6 Ks and 0 ER and I’m hoping he can get back to his dominant 2015 numbers. Fun fact, current Philly hitters are hitting .190 lifetime vs deGrom and only 1 HR.
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Somewhere, Melissa Leo is acting out today’s title and it’s so spot on you’re not sure if you should applaud, or put your wallet in the front pocket. “I came straight from the packie because I heard you were having a sale on shamrock undergarments. Are you having a shamrock undergarment sale or not?” That’s Melissa Leo acting out the title. Okay, okay, okay, guys and six girl readers and one girl writer. (She debuted yesterday; is there a female verb for that? She debutante’d yesterday? She debbie’d yesterday? She damsel’d yesterday? I’m asking, don’t roll your eyes at me like I’m a moron; I’ve had enough of that!) Chris Sale looked great yesterday (7 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 7 Ks), but you knew he was going to look great. You didn’t draft him in the first three rounds for him to look like hot garbage under Pablo Sandoval’s ass. Or, rather, you didn’t not draft him in the first three rounds because I told you not to. But you know who looked as good in Fenway? Jameson Taillon (7 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 6 Ks). He doesn’t miss a huge number of bats — will average around 7.7 K/9 — but his control is masterful. He will have around a 1.7 BB/9, if not lower. When a guy has a difference of six between his K/9 and BB/9 great things can happen, and Taillon will be no different. I’m not sure if he’ll get all the way to 190+ IP this year, but he had a 3.38 ERA last year, and I’m ready for around the same this year, if not better. Like Melissa Leo would say, “This guy is fahkin spacktackulure.” Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Back in late February I took down the ADP for the top 300 players with the intention of later reflecting on that data. I knew it would come in handy when thinking up an idea for a future column, and my clairvoyance has been fulfilled.
I’ve always been a proponent of NFBC’s ADP because of the amount of money their leagues generally require in order to play ($125+, upwards of $5,000+ in main events). It eliminates crazy outlier picks better than your casual ESPN mock drafts, and paints a great picture for value in rotisserie leagues.
As ‘weekly lock’ are their standard format, it deviates a little bit from our typical RCL that we have on this fantastic caldron of fantasy knowledge know as Razzball, but heading into the last week of drafts, I hope this will give you a great idea of the fluctuation of players in across the league.
The time frame of the change, as you will see, is between February 28th and March 26th. I’ll break up some of our specimens based on overall ADP, as players who are going later in drafts (150+ overall) have much more room to rise and fall than a player in the top 50.
To address players who have fallen due to a temporary injury, I’ve eliminated guys like Ian Desmond, Alex Reyes, and David Dahl, in favor of taking a look at performance and playing time based fluctuations. If you desire the +/- of any other player you don’t see here, feel free to mention in the comments below and I will dig in and find it for you (as long as their in the top 500).
Keep in mind, in order for a player to fall by a given amount, that player has been drafted further above or further below what their ADP on March 26th states. This is because NFBC ADP is a rolling average. For Yoenis Cespedes to increase from 59.08 to 56.66, he would have been drafted, on average, higher than the 56.66 overall from March 26th says. Not simply the +2.42 spots my interval of change shows you!
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Before we jump right into this draft recap, let’s go over a little bit of background about the league and its details. This isn’t like the typical RCL 5×5 rotisserie league we often talk about in this space. LOEG is a 10×10 head-to-head keeper league, with 10 teams and four keepers per team from year to year. The league has been around for something like ten years and has been graced by the presence of yours truly for the past five.
Since the categories, scoring, and rules are a little different in this league I’ll break down all the details below. I think it’s important to break this down a bit first because not only do I want to bore you to death, but I want you to have all the information while you are going over the results and making fun of my team in the comments section. Anyway, here we go:
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As I begin to prepare my projections and rankings for the 2017 season, I like to look back on the previous season’s attempt to not only assess my work, but also to learn how I can do better next time. Projecting statistics in any sport is a tedious and arduous task. The variables, formulas and algorithms are constantly changing and if you don’t adapt with them, your results will lose their precision and accuracy. However, I’d like to make one point blatantly clear, projections are nothing more than calculated guesses. Some are better than the next, but none are even close to perfect.
Let’s see how I fared with my 2016 efforts. For all positions I will provide the following six numbers: projected points, actual points, projected rank, actual rank, projected points per plate appearance and actual points per plate appearance. I am including points per plate appearance because it helps put a player’s projections vs performance into perspective when they’ve missing time due to injury. For pitchers I’ve replaced points per plate appearance with points per start. I’ve also included a column showing the percentage by which my points projections were off. Any player with an “n/a” listed in this column is because that player spent at least 30 days on the disabled list.
Lastly, a quick note about the rankings listed in this post. These rankings are based purely on points. This season I plan to provide additional rankings that allow me to adjust them based on three important factors: intuition, gut and my sporadic conversations with Nostradumass.Please, blog, may I have some more?
One word about this top 100 for 2017 fantasy baseball, before I give you another 5,000 words. I’m going to avoid repeating myself from the position rankings in the 2017 fantasy baseball rankings. If you want to know my in-depth feelings about a player, then you need to go to his positional page, i.e., the top 20 1st basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball, the top 20 outfielders for 2017 fantasy baseball, the top 20 Gucci handbags for 2017– Ah, I almost got you. This post is meant to give you an idea where guys from different positions are in relation to each other. Since this post is only the top 100, there’s more players where this came from. 416 more, to be very exact. Next up, there will be a top 500 that will go to 516. Then, after that, there will be a top 7,500, then a top 25,000, then a top 600,000, until we end up with a top kajillion in April. Or maybe I’ll stop at the top 500. Yeah, that makes sense. Not to get all biblical on you, but this is the gospel. Print it out and take it to Mt. Sinai and it will say, “Win your 2017 fantasy baseball league, young prematurely balding man.” Projections were done by me and a crack team of 100 monkeys fighting amongst themselves because there were only 99 typewriters. Somebody please buy Ling-Ling his own typewriter! Anyway, here’s the top 100 for 2017 fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
The royal we already went over all the hitters for 2017 fantasy baseball rankings. That’s not the “royal we” as that term usually implies. It was me writing it alone while wearing a Burger King crown. I refuse to draft a top starter where they are usually drafted. Unlike hitters, you need six starters, depending on your league depth. Simple math tells us there’s plenty of starters to go around. Simple Math also says, “Stop putting words in my mouth!” In most leagues, there’s a ton of pitchers on waivers that can help you — all year. Not just in April, and then they disappear. With the help of the Stream-o-Nator, you can get by with, say, three starters while streaming the rest. There’s also the fact that three stats by starters are difficult to predict due to luck. Wins, ERA and WHIP are prone to shift due to which way the ball bounces and whether or not the guys behind the pitchers can score runs. Finally, the best starters can give you four categories. The best hitters can give you five categories. As always, where I see tiers starting and stopping are included and my projections. Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2017 fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?