Fantasy Baseball Advice

Fantasy baseball is a fickle beast.  It will lure you in with chocolates and fine smelling perfume.  Then leave you heartbroken, mad as hell and unable to watch regular baseball.  Twelve after 20 is becoming the year of the Aflac for closers.  It is just not safe to be a ninth inning pitcher.   It’s like someone is hunting them down one by one, and systematically destroying everyone’s hopes at accumulating points in saves.  Wait, is that a laser pointer on Huston Street?  Watching guys that I usually opine about in my holds posts finally getting some burn in the limelight.  It is a strong week for streaming low end two start pitchers.  Lots of decent matchup type guys and some  guys that are under the radar who should be rostered in most formats soon.  So enjoy the week to come and have a very wobbly and not very up-right Cinco De Mayo.  Here’s some two start starters for this week in fantasy baseball:  (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

5/9

Anthony Bass @ Col – Moscoso

Ross Detwiler @ Pit – Bedard

Drew Smyly @ Sea – Vargas

5/10

Henderson Alvarez @ Min – Marquis

Derek Lowe @ Bos – Beckett

5/11

Kyle Drabek @ Min – Blackburn

James McDonald vs Hou – Norris

5/12

R.A. Dickey @ Mia – Nolasco

TWO START OPTIONS:

J.A. Happ (Mia vs Zambrano, @Pit vs Morton) After watching him pitch against the Mets, I said to myself, “Self, we should keep an eye on him for future starts.”  For a deeper league with fringe options, the stale fish and the sinking pirate ship seem tantalizing to me.

Bronson Arroyo (@Mil vs Marcum, Was vs Jackson) Because of rain you get him twice this week, ain’t that special?  Likes to use the method of one good/one bad start.   His last one was bad, so there is your heads up.

Josh Tomlin (CHW vs Humber, @Bos vs Doubront) ERA says 5, but the other numbers say something different.  And if numbers talk we have a bigger problem.  Like what else talks to you?  Lunch meat?

Duane Below (@Sea vs Millwood, @Oak vs Parker) I don’t wanna jinx him, but he is unscored upon this year. I bet someone a shiny new quarter that no longer exists by the fourth inning Monday.  Still all things considered, it is Seattle and that is Millwood, so it could be an easy W.

Joe Saunders (STL vs Lynn, SF vs Zito) I don’t know how he is doing it either, so don’t ask.  Luck is the best thing I can think of, LOB rate of 84% and a FIP in the high 2′s makes him look more realistic and not like the boogieman sleeping in my closet.

Marco Estrada (Cin vs Arroyo, CHC vs Volstad) I see his name and the CHiPs theme song jumps in my head. Now that we are on the same page enjoy the classic fade out to that song. Without the Ks, I’d wanna watch TJ Hooker instead.

A.J. Burnett ( Was vs Jackson, Hou vs Happ) A dozen of anything sounds delicious.  Oh… they were earned runs. Yikes.  Anything worth doing, A.J does it.

Barry Zito (@LAD vs Lilly, @Ari vs Saunders) His matchup looks like a retread meeting of guys over 30 who no longer throw hard. 7 walks last start as he was in a hurry to get to the Perfect Strangers reunion show. Big Cousin Larry fan.

Jarrod Parker (Tor vs Romero, Det vs Below) Good job, youngin’,, now go do it again and make yourself completely fantasy useful. While you’re at it, give me your sandwich….I said give me your sandwich!

Jonathan Sanchez (Bos vs Doubront, @CHW vs Danks) Filthy, dirty.  I don’t know what his nickname is anymore, but it should start with “in” and end with “consistent.”  Throws away too many pitches to go deep in a game and, for that reason, he is just poo.

Another Joyous week of 2 start streaming is in the books.  This week we have a bunch of lads that are up against it.  Most of the options this week are being truly put to the test with some of their toughest match-ups to date.  There are no gimmies this week and believe it or not Bronson Arroyo actually looks attractive this week, though only in a fantasy baseball way.  The other options that are being added or talked about this week all get the Yankees and someone else, which is never a good thing especially who the other teams are.  So stream carefully.  Enjoy the week to come and if you need anything you know where to find me. (Please be aware that pitchers and match-ups change)

ONE START STREAMERS:

5/2

Josh Tomlin @ CHW – Humber

AJ Burnett @STL – Lynn

5/3

Jake Westbrook vs Pit – Bedard

Jeff Niemann vs Sea – Millwood

Ross Detwiler vs Ari – Kennedy

5/4

Drew Smyly vs CHW – Peavy

Jason Vargas vs Min – Marquis

Anthony Bass vs Mia – Johnson

TWO START OPTIONS:

Juan Nicasio (LAD vs Harang, Atl vs Beachy) Proving to be a good Road Scholar, offers you some decent K potential as well.   No word on if his brother Jose Texas Instruments is an option this week.

Tommy Milone (@Bos  vs Buchholz, @TB vs Moore) Gets his first start east of the Mississippi. The old man, the mighty miss.   Unfortunately Bos and TB are playing the role of Dinkums and are going to pee all over his picnic basket.

Bronson Arroyo (CHC vs Volstad, @Pit vs Morton) Gotta love the match-ups here. Based on options this week it’s either bench some useful guys, stream some guys mid week if possible, or go with this guy. There is no D unfortunately.

Jason Hammel (@NYY vs Kuroda, @Bos vs Buchholz)  The pride of Treasure Valley Community College, where their motto is bring a shovel because we are in a valley and there is treasure. From the outside looking in if you own him great job, give yourself a pat on the back. Now don’t stop until until May 17th when he can actually be used again.

J.A. Happ (NYM vs Dickey, STL vs Wainwright) The epic battle of R.A. vs J.A. for the world title of being the best initialed pitcher in the galaxy. Adam Wainwright sits in the corner stewing, waiting to take J.A’s lunch money.

Luke Hochevar (Det vs Wilk, NYY vs Hughes) Focus on the names of the match-ups. Not the line-ups for a second…ok I don’t blame you for saying that. Or that, or that…. OK now your just being offensive.  ERA says 5 but he is pitching like a mid 2′s guy, and that my friends is why numbers lie.

Joe Weiland (Mil vs Wolf, Mia vs Nolasco) Home cooking for a Friar’s pitcher. Viva la Hodgepodgery.

Charlie Morton (@STL vs Wainwright, Cin vs Arroyo) If runs came in bunches like bananas then Pittsburgh is suffering from a potassium deficiency.  Look away, nothing to see here unless your in a 16 plus team league and are desperate to destroy your counting stats for the week.

Liam Hendriks (@LAA vs Wilson, @Sea vs Noesi) The good news is he plays the Mariners. The bad is he is a mediocre pitcher on mediocre team playing against an ace.  No sugar coating it around here I am diabetic.

Josh Collmenter (Mia vs Buerhle, @NYM vs Dickey) Hahahahahahahahahahaha.  This message brought to you and paid for by the promotion campaign of Trevor Bauer.

SAT Question:  Albert Pujols is to a fractured forearm as Justin Morneau is to playing every day in 2011 and you can’t take him out of your lineup.  Only thing worse for Cardinal fans is if Don Denkinger announced Pujols’s fractured forearm while wearing a Wilson Betemit jersey.  We never get Pujols in any leagues.  I mean, never.  This year, we thought we’d go against common practice and pay for him in one league.  It’ll take away some money we have for the rest of our team, but at least we’ll have Pujols.  *standing in the pouring rain, shaking fist at the sky*  Come get some, Fantasy Overlord!  So, unfortunately, the slap on Albert’s forearm was harder than the law gave to Tony La Russa when he DUI’d and Pujols will be out for at least 6 weeks. (They’re saying 4-6 weeks, but that’s optimistic.)  Looks like Jon Jay, the Federalist, will get more time.  Well, why didn’t you say that?!  That makes everything better!  *sticks head in oven*  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

David Freese – Returns next week.  If he’s on waivers, now would be as good a time as any to pick him up.  Or now.  Or now.  Or…Well, you get the picture.

Adrian Gonzalez – Francona said A-Gone might play some outfield during interleague play.  A-Gon’s got the outfield range of a Johnny Damon throw.  The Red Sox are going to mitigate his poor range by giving him a really big glove.

Andrew Miller – 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 10 baserunners (3 walks), 6 Ks.  I should do lines in Vegas– Whoa, Charlie Sheen!  This is a family show! Random Italicized Voice, I mean I should make betting lines for oddsmakers.  I totally would’ve called this Miller line.  He’s such a 5 to 6 inning pitcher with 3 to 4 earned runs and a lousy WHIP.  (BTW, Sawx vs. Padres in Fenway?  This is like S.D. Jones vs. Andre the Giant.)

Tim Hudson – 8 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 8 Ks.  I was gonna write a post about interleague in regards to this, but I didn’t get a chance so here’s the short version.  When a team doesn’t see a pitcher often, the pitcher has the advantage.  An AL team loses a DH, advantage for the NL pitcher (and not just because Hudson pitchslapped Romero).  They still have the play the games, and, as Morton showed last night, a terrible performance is terrible no matter the circumstances.  Continued in the next blurb…

J.A. Happ – 2 2/3 IP, 5 ER in Arlington.  Then you have an interleague matchup of a mediocre pitcher vs. a tough lineup in a hitters’ park and Happ happens.

Jose Bautista – 0-for-4, I know Bautista’s going to hit three bombs tonight because I’m about to write this, but in June — 1 homer and a .259 average.  Last year, only 4 homers in June and a .179 average.  Bautista did go back to the Smackdown in July.

Travis Wood – 7 IP, 4 ER, 9 baserunners, 6 Ks.  After the first inning where he gave up 4 runs, he settled down and stopped letting Volquez call his pitches.

Ivan Nova – 8 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 7 Ks.  He seems to have a great start then a terrible one.  Maybe Nova is a star that suddenly becomes much brighter than normal and then gradually returns to its original brightness.

Mariano Rivera – 1 IP, 0 ER.  Nothing to say here, but I was at my chiropractor yesterday — I’m so LA! (and I sit in front of my computer too much) — but I read a great article about cutters in Sports Illustrated from one or two weeks ago.  I’d seek it out.  Was about how so many pitchers are adopting the cutter.  Hey, look, it’s like we’re in a book club!

Charlie Morton – 2 IP, 6 ER.  He was walking between the raindrops for too long without getting wet.  It was a nice ride, but now I’d bench or lose him in most leagues.

Jake Arrieta – 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 baserunners, 2 Ks and a 4.50 ERA on the year.  Yet, he has 9 wins.  In other news, wins are stupid.

Juan Nicasio – 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 9 baserunners, 6 Ks.  The roofie as defined by the Razzball Glossary:  A rookie pitcher who fails to deliver on their tremendous K potential and, instead, abuses your trust and violates your ERA and WHIP.  Used in a sentence, “Doctor, last night Nicasio roofied me and now I’m peeing blood out of my rear.”

Carlos Santana – 3-for-4 with his 10th home run and third steal.  It’s a slam and legs, and it’s easy to digest.  The average is blehtastic at .237, but his OBP is fine and his BABIP shows he’s been a bit unlucky.  He’s still just a catcher, but his end of the year numbers are gonna look decent.

Jason Giambi – 1-for-4 with his 7th home run.  Giambi’s a decent interleague flyer if you’re in dire need for power in a deep league.  Short term play though.  BTW, I just totally spazzed myself out thinking about how Giambi’s having a better year than Morneau.  I will now walk into traffic wearing a burlap sack.

Orlando Hudson – 3-for-4 with his first homer.  I didn’t see it, but I’m guessing Pesky-fueled.  O, you, dog.

Chase Headley – 4-for-5, and hitting near .500 in the last week.  Wanna know why?  Because he wants to hug you.  No.  That’s not why.  Cause he’s away from Petco.  This year — .336 in away games.  .235 at home.  In 2010, same shizz, different year.

Starlin Castro – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 2nd home run and 9th steal.  I’m a bit embarrassed to say this because I have Castro on a bunch of teams, but I thought he had more homers.  2 homers?  Really?   Really, Seth Myers?

Clayton Kershaw – 9 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 11 Ks.  I have a bit of a schoolgirl crush on him.  That is all.  (Unless he wants more.  I’m totally open for that.)

James Loney – 3-for-4 and 6 for his last 11.  Hitting over .290 for two straight months and– I’m sorry, I can’t get excited about him.

Ryan Braun – Missed yesterday’s game with a viral infection.  Oy, someone make the Hebrew Hammer some matzoh ball soup.

Jeff Niemann – 6 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks.  I’m going to sound like an obstinate broken record here.  But I don’t buy into Neimann at all.  At all.  At–

Evan Longoria – 2-for-5, 4 RBIs with his 6th home run and is hitting .237.  So Pujols, Hanley, Wright, Longoria and Crawford are lured into The Octagon, who wants in first?

Leo Nunez – So spooked by strange noises in his hotel in Florida that he spent the weekend at his friend’s home.  Some meddling kids figured out it was Robb Nen draped in a bed sheet.

Hanley Ramirez – New (<–ironic! (if I am using the word ironic correctly) manager, Jack McKeon, benched Hanley in his first game.  The 80-year-old manager said, “In my day, bats were made out of particle board.  They weighed 5 times a player’s body weight and you had to put them together with wood screws.”  He continued, “Look, there’s no miracle elixir that can get us back into first…but McKendrick’s Revitalization Potion #7 never hurts!”

I have come to the revelation that I watch way too many baseball games. On average in a week, I watch roughly 30-40 games. I am always looking for trends or nuisances that will aide, but not abet, my fantasy know how. The thing I watch most is pitching. Pitching is the most added and dropped position, based mostly because of depth. So depth is what I give you. I take guys that are owned in less than 50% of leagues and bring you my take on what they are and who they may be in the week ahead. I wish I had the power to give them wins in every start, but chasing wins is the axis of evil in fantasy. So use this low end guide to your advantage and go forth and make me proud. So here are the lesser owned two start fantasy baseball options for the upcoming week. (Please keep in mind that match-ups and pitchers may change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

6/1
Josh Tomlin @Tor – Drabek
Mike Leake vs. Mil – Marcum

6/2
Carlos Carrasco vs. Tex – Harrison
Tim Stauffer vs. Hou – W. Rodriguez

6/3
Jason Vargas vs. TB – Hellickson
Carlos Villanueva @ Bal – Bergesen
Bud Norris @ SD – Moseley

Doug Fister (Bal vs. Arrieta, TB vs. Davis) Yeah, that’s what she said. Another pitcher that if he pitched for a better team we would prolly be rostered all over based on his numbers. If you’re going to chase wins, at least do it with a guy who will get you 5 K’s and decent peripherals. ERA under 3 at home.

Dillon Gee (Pit vs. Morton, Atl vs. Jurrjens) Prolly the best name for a baseball player since, Rusty Kuntz. Home ERA of 1.66. You could do a lot worse, i.e. about a 1/8 of an inch down.

Luke Hochevar (Ana vs. Santana, Min vs. Blackburn) The streetwalker’s barber.  If I could find something good to say about him, I would. Umm… he pitches twice this week. If your league is deep enough, it could make sense.

Derek Holland (@TB vs. Davis, @Cle vs. Carmona) 2.51 ERA away from Arlington. Gives up way too many balls in play, BAA is .296. Is “due” for win. Has gone 6 starts without a decision, somewhere Jo-Jo Reyes makes a fist and screams.

Chris Narveson (@Cin vs. Wood, @Fla vs. Volstad) Oh Narvy, first it was Bud Norris that went out of his way to scorn my affection. Now it’s you. Seems like he pitches great than beats himself with the dreaded 6 run HR. ERA better away from the Brewery.

J.A. Happ (@CHC vs. Coleman, @SD vs. Harang) Love the K-rate, but the walks make me sad. You have to watch him to get frustrated with him, and who watches the ’Stros. Away ERA is abysmal but anchored by two bad starts early in the season.

Nick Blackburn (@Det vs. Penny, @KC vs. Hochevar) Last 5 starts, 3-0 21 K’s and an ERA of 1.72. Sounds good to me. Name still sound like a skin disease you contract from a trip to Venezuela.

Brad Penny (Min vs. Blackburn, @CHW vs. Danks) My grandma always said, “See a Penny, pick it up.” She also can’t read fantasy stat lines.  K/9 and BB/9 are almost the same number. If you live under a rock (find a new place to stay), that’s never a good stat to have similar.

Chris Volstad (Ari vs. Saunders, @Mil vs. Narveson) Maybe it’s just me but I love all the Marlins starters. xFIP 2 runs lower than his ERA. Offers you some medium K potential, which is a lot better than rare.

Ryan Vogelsong (@StL vs. Carpenter, Col vs. Hammel) The newest veteran magician to suddenly appear on the fantasy scene. Numbers are just stupid, best of all is the .038 ERA at home.

Jason Bay has a strained intercostal, which is the highway that runs along Florida’s coast.  Specifically, by Palm Beach where people are old and this strained whatever-the-shizz-is happens.  If you were counting on a bounce back from J-Bay, you might want to count to yourself so you don’t annoy your cubicle neighbor.  (Neighboricle?  Who might’ve also been the person who lived next to that nice black lady in The Matrix.)  These injuries tend to linger — see Braun, Ryan for further reading — and Bay already had Metco and age to deal with.  I’m not optimistic about him being at full strength until May and even then I have my doubts about how much we’re gonna see from him.  Rudy and I are betting Scott Hairston sees time in our deep leagues, but Duda could, as well.  Though I wouldn’t Camptown Race to pick him up.  Anyway, here’s what else is going on in fantasy baseball:

Edwin Encarnacion – Will start at 3rd base with Bautista moving to the outfield.  Encarnacion is a Latin 28, and I have little faith in him hitting over .260 but he could hit 25 homers with everyday ABs.  The only problem he seems to ever have is staying healthy.  The way randoms come out of the woodwork to hit bombs in Toronto every year, I wouldn’t be surprised if this year it’s Edwin’s turn.  Not saying he’s going to hit 50 homers like some schmohawk, but if he hit 30 homers in 500 ABs it wouldn’t surprise me.

Brian Wilson – Will miss a week.  O, Sergio Romo, will see saves in his stead, man.  For those who found us Googling “O + Steadman” — you’re at the totally wrong site and your spelling is off.

Juan Rivera – Hotel and Casino gets hurt a little with Bautista moving to right field.  Rivera should see time at DH, but I imagine Lind, Snider or Arencibia could also see some time at DH.  Frankly, that team has 7 of one player, then 2 of another player (Pods, Rajai).

Ian Stewart – Sounds like Stewart will open the season on DL.  Or if Sean Connery is reading this, “Ee-yan Shtewart is hurting.  Wigginshton is the man now, dog.”

Mark Trumbo – The Sciosciapath said Trumbo won’t be an everyday player.  I’d still own him in most leagues if you have room on your bench.  It’s worth a few day flyer to see if he hits his way into the everyday lineup.  By next Monday, you drop him if he’s not doing anything.  No harm, no foul.

Stephen Drew – Had an MRI for abdominal pain, might land on the DL.  Did you know Grey can’t have an MRI because he has metal plates in his head from one of the few amusing anecdotes that didn’t make it into the (e)book?  Did you also know Grey likes to talk about himself in third person?

Mike Napoli – I might put a moratorium on Napoli questions.  He isn’t going to start every day this year.  He hasn’t started the last three years and he has 20 homers in each season.  That’s why there’s the Ron Popeil School of Catcher Management.  You set him and you forget him.

J.A. Happ – Out with an oblique injury.  Vague!  You shouldn’t have owned him anyway so maybe that pressure is why he got hurt.  You better send him a Get Well card.

Jarrod Dyson – Backup/bench option for the Royals that could have value because of his speed — SAGNOF! — if the Royals are hit by injuries.  See, Dyson is specially engineered for speed.  Most runners move only one leg at a time when they run but Jarrod Dyson moves both in a centrifugal motion that reduces friction and removes all the dirt from the infield.

Brad Lidge – Out with a partially torn rotator cuff.  He’s saying back by June, wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t see him until August.  Madson is a Cuddle Boy, and Charlie Manuel don’t like no Cuddle Boys, so he’s saying Contreras will close.  I really don’t think it’s going to be this clear cut.  Madson will get some saves, but for now Contreras is the main pick up.

Drew Storen – Has all but lost the Nats closer job, but, since Sean Burnett is the favorite for saves, I wouldn’t drop Storen.

Ronny Paulino – May hit the DL with stomach issues.  Hey, now the Yanks and Mets both have colon problems.