Something that may help you is my pitchers pairing post. Something else that may help you is our Fantasy Baseball War Room. Something else that may also help you is J.B.’s top 100 starters. So, these starters are all being drafted after 200 overall. Now, this is a (legal-in-all-countries-except-Trinidad-and-Tobago) supplement to my top 100 starters for 2015 fantasy baseball. To give Credence to Fogerty’ing up your draft, last year this post had in it Sonny Gray, Corey Kluber, Tyson Ross, Yordano Ventura, Zack Wheeler and Erasmo. Hey, they weren’t all gems. Click on the player’s name where applicable to read more and see their 2015 projections. Also, I’ve gone over all positions for sleepers; to see them all 2015 fantasy baseball sleepers. Anyway, here’s some starters to target for 2015 fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Imagine you are given a perfect list of auction values. Like you walk to the top of Mt. Sinai and instead of the Ten Commandments, God hands you a sheet of perfect dollar values for your upcoming auction. (Relative to burning bushes and other ways God has made his “presence known”, I’d say this would rank about middle of the pack in terms of directness). What would you do with these values?Please, blog, may I have some more?
Pitcher Profiles are almost back baby! Let’s get this shizz goin!
I hope everyone has had a nice winter, and enjoyed an awesome year with us so far over on Hoops. Good thing it’s an indoor sport! Northeast getting more snow than Tony Montana’s desk. But with the allure of the weather warming (it hasn’t yet), we can all get together and talk some starting pitching (it’s deep, convo over). With depth comes two interesting schools of thought – should you go with aces early because there’s so little distinguishing the mid-tier and breakout guys? Or wait entirely and build your whole staff late? Of course there’s 50 Shades of Grey, which is still my usual approach. Hopefully Grey’s next book will be 51 Shades of Grey Albright. Shade 1 – mustache play.
If you missed the wrap up at the end of last year, you can check out how my 2014 pre-ranks fared against Grey and ESPN.
Enough foreplay, below are my top 100 SP ranks! With the great pitching depth, comes
great responsibility a lot of guys out of the 100 that are probably in other ranks here and there. Pitchers 70-130 are so hard to differentiate… But as always, please shoot your comments below on what ya think, and happy pitching 2015!
Didja you know The Captain from Captain & Tennille’s real name is Daryl Dragon? Why would this guy have a nickname? Your name’s awesome, you don’t get a nickname. Daryl Dragon has bedtime slippers that are cooler than you. Daryl Dragon washes his hands, then breathes a not-very-intense fire on his hands to dry them. Daryl Dragon can’t get a speeding ticket. “Okay, Mr. Dragon, I’ll let you go this time with a warning because your name is Daryl Dragon.” Any the hoo! Michael Pineda continues to dominate sans pine tar fingers. At least I don’t think he has pine tar on his fingers. Imagine he was really a Caucasian pulling a fast one? His ERA is now down to 1.93 after a 7 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit, 1 Walk, 8 Ks gem. For 2015, I picture him being overdrafted due to the Yankees thing and the insanely low ERA, but it’s gonna be hard to be as excited about him due to his 6.30 K-rate, and 3.61 xFIP. You, sir, are no Daryl Dragon. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
So here we are, the last week of the season. If you’re playing now, you’re in the money game of your head-to-head league, or you’re in a dog fight to pull ahead in the roto standings. I’ve said this for the last three weeks but, congratulations! You did something right. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say there are a few things you definitely didn’t do, you didn’t draft Justin Verlander, you didn’t draft Buster Posey or Joe Mauer anywhere near the first 5 rounds, you didn’t invest in one of the top 3 closers, and you probably didn’t draft Dominic Brown (Sorry Tehol). They say fantasy championships are made after the draft. Whoever they are? Seriously do you know? I’m just going to guess that if there is a they that writes these cliches, then they know Nick Capozzi. Mostly because he knows everybody in the fantasy industry. I’m also going to assume it’s a secret club that I’m not privy to. You know, like Skull and Bones. Wow that escalated quickly! Where was I? Oh yeah winning fantasy championships. Well my belief is that the secret to winning in the final week is pitching, and how you use your streams. If you’re in a H2H league with a limited move number than be careful. One must choose wisely. With this in mind I have created a new format for these posts. As I mentioned last week I had the vision of putting my rankings in spreadsheet form and providing a couple of key metrics I felt gave you the readers full transparency into my thought process. Well my vision is reality behold the new and improved two startapalooza. You’ll see that in addition to the Pitcher’s name and opponent, I’ve also provided the pitcher’s handedness, the pitcher’s Home/Road ERA, the opponent’s Home/Road wOBA, and the opponent’s Right/Left wOBA split. These are the numbers I look at most closely when creating my rankings for the week. So why not share them with you? Enjoy, I put some time into this and I believe you’ll find it extra helpful. I hope it also sparks more debate in the comments and gives you guys all the more reason to challenge my tiers. I’ve also made sure that I based my Two-Start roster off of Rudy’s new two start pitcher SON/tool. This way all the information mirrors each other and gives some continuity to the post. Thanks again for reading and I’m looking forward to bringing this format back next season. Go Get’Em!Please, blog, may I have some more?
This is happening on the other side of my laptop as I sit here writing the Two-Startapalooza…
Yes, that is a dog dry-humping Boo the star Pomeranian in stuffed animal form. He does it all the time, but for some reason it seemed profound to me and strangely relevant to this week’s batch of pitchers. [Jay’s Note: Uhhhh. Okay?] Perhaps my dog represents the fantasy gods, and Boo is fantasy owners everywhere, especially those on the playoff bubble in their leagues. No Clayton Kershaw, no Max Scherzer, no David Price, no mega-aces to speak of. Combustible No. 2’s. A lot of mediocrity. Dudes obviously pitching over their heads, and dying to, well, eff you over. And then the looming threat of namby-pamby real-life baseball managers pulling guys early in games to get ready for the real-life playoffs and even scratching top-flight starters with mysterious blisters, hangnails and other assorted bogus injuries in an effort to save them for the postseason. The nerve! But I see two little gifts from these same fantasy gods: Two guys with potential who have good-to-great matchups this week.
First up is Eric Stults, a Hodgepadre with two home starts (Brew Crew and Dodgers) and a nice run going. He’s 3-1 in August with a 1.49 ERA, and only one of those starts was in Petco. Also, he’s only walked two guys in his last three starts, and has the potential to strike guys out on top of that. Then there’s Dillon Gee, who looked like a potential ace out of the gate this year but then missed two months with a back injury. He’s been about as appealing as amusement park food since his return, racking up a 5.50 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP with no wins over the last 30 days. But if you drill down into his last four starts, he hasn’t been that awful. He held down the Giants for the most part on Aug. 4, giving up two runs over 5-plus innings. He then dominated the flat-lining Phillies in Philly. Now I’ll make some excuses. Is there shame in getting a little shaken (4 ER in 5 innings) in a loss to the first-place Nats at home or a road loss to first-place Oakland? This week, Gee welcomes two beatable opponents to Citi Field: The strikeout happy Braves and then those same crappy Phillies. I like Gee and Stults as streamers who won’t “screw you over” (heh) and nothing else. Now let’s see what else we got in the Two-Starter cupboard this week.Please, blog, may I have some more?
I’ve tried it all gentlemen and lady (possibly +4). We’ve looked at splits, BvP, wOBA, ISO, wRC+ and we’ve even tried the “due” argument. While all of these predictive metrics are very useful and over the long haul ring true, each day is another exercise in randomness. Truth is, 162 games creates plenty of room for chaos theory to rear its wonderfully asymmetrical head. Daily fantasy doesn’t allow for the law of averages and regression to the mean to matter for one single isolated matchup. As a gambling man, I like to try new things to see how things play out. I’ve done my research and feel good about this lineup that is completely segregated by the DraftKings salary. We’re moving the decimal point two places to the left today and removing the glorious zeroes from the end of salaries that we all covet. I’m rolling out only prime numbers today i.e. $2,300 = 23 = prime number. When you look at numbers this much, the unique ones start to stand out. The DFS community can certainly relate to the primes:
Prime numbers… appear among the integers, seemingly at random, and yet not quite: there seems to be some order or pattern, just a little below the surface, just a little out of reach.
Don’t expect to win each day—that is out of reach. But winning over the long haul is what we’re after. Take a good look at the DFSBot which has recently been ruled the best DFS prediction tool by dailydraftwizard.com. Rudy’s phenomenal tool, as Mrs. Gamble calls it, cranks out the day’s best value plays and even breaks it down to expected $ per point.
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 20 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care!Please, blog, may I have some more?
As I discussed recently with a good friend, I just missed my musical times growing up. I started getting into the rock of the early 90’s. Y’all can call it grunge, I’m cool with that. Don’t really care what you want to label it as but I enjoyed my Alice ‘n’ Chains and Soundgarden in my Middle School years. And just as high school began, the good music started to die. I got stuck with the fallout of all the Mouseketeers becoming music stars and invading my audio living space. Gone was ‘Burden In My Hand’ and in was ‘Hit Me Baby One More Time’. It was a jolt, to say the least. I finished out my High School years going backwards musically, exploring all the bands that influenced the bands I loved growing up so I could avoid the complete and under dreck that was on the radio every day. Of course, that does not make one immune to it. Hell, even people who admit to hating Journey can probably sing a few bars. When Thong Song hit my ears, I thought it was a joke. I mean, it quotes Ricky Martin’s ‘La Vida Loca’. Who does that if they’re trying to be taken seriously? Sisqo I guess. And no, Sisqo, I won’t look up how to make the weird mark above the ‘o’. You’re just not worth it. But more to the point, ‘If Loving Kolten Is Wong, I Don’t Wanna Be Right’ has been used so I decided to bring upon you the pain of my late teen years to make a title. Sorry about that (ok not really), but I thought you’d like the song (ok, not really again). Of course, I bring to you this conversation about Kolten Wong because he hit 2 homers Thursday night to go along with a steal and now has 9 HRs and 17 steals on the year over 251 AB. Stretch that out to 500 AB and you have an 18 HR, 34 steal season at 2B. To put that in perspective, Daniel Murphy is on pace for 13 HRs and 17 steals in 656 at bats this year and is the 7th best 2B on the year, according to Yahoo. Like I told Nick on the podcast over the All-Star Break, I think Wong turns some teams around down the stretch run. Given that it’s his rookie year, I’m willing to look past the up and down that his been this year with Kolten and realize his .247 average is masking something that could be great in 2015 and beyond. That Wong, wa-Wong, Wong, Wong! In other news for 2014 Fantasy Baseball…Please, blog, may I have some more?
Sorry my Razzball peeps but everybody’s favorite bearded genius J-FOH is hanging with Mickey Mouse today. So while J-FOH does his initiation with these guys, I’m stepping in to pinch hit. Think of me as a super sexy Matt Stairs, only instead of late innings hits I’m dropping Daily Baseball science on y’all! Speaking of daily fantasy science, check out Rudy’s Franken-tool the DFSBot. Why do I call it a Franken-tool? Because it’s a monster!
So now that introductions are out of the way, I have a question. Have you guys seen Adam Wainwright‘s price today on DraftKings? He costs a measly $9,500! For a pitcher of Wainwright’s caliber that’s downright stealing. Which leads me to my next question. What does DraftKings know that I don’t?
On face value I think 1. He faces the Red Sox in St. Louis which means they will be sans a DH. When the Red Sox are DH-less either Mike Napoli or David Ortiz are on the bench. That takes a lot of pop out of an already punch-less lineup. 2. The Red Sox offense stinks to begin with. Take a look at the numbers the last two weeks. They have the second lowest run total, the third highest K%, and the lowest wOBA. So they’re a bad lineup WITH Napoli and Ortiz. What’s worse than bad? Ice Cold! Thanks Andre 3000! Sure they upgraded their offense at the deadline, but Allen Craig just hit the DL and Yoenis Cespedes is 0/4 vs Wainwright lifetime with 3 K’s. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say Wainwright is in line for a dominant performance tonight. Expect a minimum of 7 innings of one run ball, with 8 K’s.
To play devil’s advocate, the Wainwright problem on DraftKings lately is his steadily evaporating strikeouts. The K/9 this year of 7.37 is down a full whiff from his norm the last 4 years of 8.25. Even worse, his K/9 was a pedestrian 6.91 for the month of June and a disturbing 4.59 for the month of July. So a question for another time and perhaps another article all together is, where have they gone and will they come back? Well I can tell you tonight’s matchup sets up nicely for Wainwright to return to DraftKing‘s points glory. BOLD PREDICTION – 9K’s, 8IP, 0 runs, 4 hits, 1 BB, AND THE WIN. 37 DraftKings points.
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 20 Teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care!Please, blog, may I have some more?
Something many of you don’t realize, but one of the first people to talk to a player that was just traded is his new team’s tailor. The Yankees tailor got on the phone with Chase Headley to find out what size jersey he wears, and Headley looked down, beaming to be out of Petco, and said, “Giuseppe, you might want to take out my inseam too.” I wonder if the flowers smelled a little better as Headley stepped into Yankee Stadium for the first time. Sure, in contrast to his hour long ride through the Bronx, getting lost in Hunts Point, anything would smell better, but it can’t be worse, can it? His career in away games prorated over a 162 game season is: 79/19/79/.286/14. Doode’s David Wright! Well, almost. Which is sad for Headley and Wright. More sad for Wright. What a guy does in only half a season can be anywhere from bupkis to I-want-to-bump-grind-and-kiss. Will Headley suddenly be mixed league worthy? Yeah, for at least a flyer, if nothing else. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?