Yesterday, Lucas Giolito went 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks as he was called up to take Reynaldo’s rotation spot. The shine, as they say at the complaint desk for a shoeshine man, has come off Giolito. I was all ready to mock Keith Law. I was going to look at what Law said in 2012 vs. now, but I overestimated Law. This past winter he said Giolito could be a #1 starter. I can’t imagine what he said in 2012. Likely that he’s the best starter in the draft. He wouldn’t have been alone with that. Most loved Giolito at the time. Also, as that last sentence sounds, he was the most loved Giolito, with Sammy “The Bull” Giolito a distant 2nd. Lucas’s value has rebounded a bit this year vs. last year. In Endorphin Ralph’s top 100 prospects in the 2nd half, Giolito was ranked 82nd. As a fantasy baseball prospect list vs. a real baseball one, that’s a solid ranking — or is that a solid Ralphing? For this year, I’d avoid outside of the best matchups. Rookie pitchers bring more heartache than your high school sweetheart friending you on Facebook. “Ugh, she’s happy? Such BS!” Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
If your eyes weren’t burned away from the eclipse, it’s great to have you back and reading the write up. We have a full slate tonight with no bona fide ace on the mound but that doesn’t mean we don’t have some solid match-ups to pick from. The biggest one that stands out is Lance Lynn ($14,800), he is being priced as a middle of the road started despite the fact that he has 2 ER or fewer in his last 9 starts. Tonight should be no different as the San Diego Padres come to St. Louis, Lynn’s home ERA is currently 2.62. The Padres are no secret to DFS when it comes to streaming pitchers but Lynn is priced really low and the Padres offer a great strike out potential. They currently rank 3rd in the MLB in Strikeouts and are dead last in runs scored. Lynn should be able to have his way with this line-up and also have a great chance to win the game as Cardinals are significant favorites.
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I really wish Rhys Hoskins pronounced his name “Riz” so that I could use a “Nobody Beats The Rhys” headline, but it is apparently pronounced “Reese.” Who do I talk to about making that change? Does anyone have the phone number for his parents or, better yet, his grandparents? This is important stuff here.
Anyway, added Rhys to our beloved 100 because chicks dig the long ball. While you probably haven’t had to search hard to find home runs in 2017, neither has anyone else, so it’s always good to have some more. Hoskins has big boy power, which he displayed in the minors the last few years (where he was stuck for way too long thanks to the Phillies). After hitting 38 home runs in 135 games in hitter-friendly confines in Double-A in 2016, he backed that up with 29 home runs in 115 games in Triple-A this season.
But his game isn’t all power. As a somewhat older prospect, Hoskins actually has a pretty nice approach at the plate. In Triple-A in 2017, he posted a 13.5 BB% against a 15.8 K% while slashing .284 / .385 / .581. Through his first two weeks in the show, his average is down, but everything else looks about the same. And a .154 BABIP helps explain the .237 average he woke up with on Monday morning.
So, the real bonus with Hoskins is that the power numbers come with some above-average peripherals. He might not hit .280+ the rest of the way in the bigs, but would it surprise anyone if he did? If you are in OBP or OPS leagues, even better, since he has shown that he is not afraid to take a walk. Plus, that power…Please, blog, may I have some more?
Bryce Harper is clearly no Jon Snow. Perhaps I should say that Harper is no Jaehaerys Targaryen. If you have no desire to read about my Game of Thrones theories, I suggest you skip down to the line that reads “I’m done with my Game of Thrones theories” and ignore what comes before it. By now most have come to the conclusion that Jon Snow is a Targaryen. I’m not going to go into the details, but the short of it is that Jon is the son of Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark. Lyanna, Ned Stark’s sister, died giving birth to Jon. Ned claimed him as his own to save him from being killed by Robert Baratheon.
Ok, so maybe I am going to go dive into the details. Bran is one of the few living people that know Jon’s true identity. He learned this in one of his visions where he traveled back in time to the Tower of Joy, when he followed his father up the tower in which he found Lyanna who had just given birth to Jon. Before she died she begged him to raise Jon as his own. Obviously Ned obliged.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Happy Bryce Harper Replacement Week! :::sobs into the couch cushion I have been carrying around since watching the video of Harper tumbling over that base:::
The cruel baseball gods took Harper away from us just after we got Trout back. As of this writing, there is no timetable for his return from what they are calling a “significant bone bruise.” I’m no doctor (sorry to peel back the curtain), but how the heck did that non-contact injury get a bone bruise diagnosis? I thought for sure he tore every CL in his body. I wouldn’t have been surprised to hear that he tore his UCL from reaching for his knee so fast. But a bone bruise? Interesting. Let’s just hope he wasn’t evaluated by the Mets’ training staff because “bone bruise” is going to very quickly become “Oh crap, his knee actually isn’t there anymore. We can’t find it anywhere.”
Now, there is no replacing Harper’s production on your fantasy team, especially in the middle of August. That much is obvious. If you’re lucky, you took Grey’s advice about selling a superstar to heart and cashed in at the deadline. I have Harper in a keeper league where I currently sit in first place, so I have to decide if I want to deal him now to make a playoff push, pray he comes back this season and helps me, or just accept the fact that he is done for the fantasy season but still keep him for next year. I am probably going with option B/C, if we’re being honest with each other here.
I’m removing him from our beloved 100 while we wait to see how he looks this week. Hopefully, the baseball gods decide to heal him from his mystery bruise quickly and we can have him back. But it seems more likely we are going to be without him for most, if not all, of the fantasy season. Now, enough crying about Harper (at least publicly). Anyway, to the notes…
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- .301 / .353 / .455
- 11 home runs
- 16 stolen bases
- 55 runs scored
- 49 RBI
- 2nd Half: .352, two home runs, 14 runs scored, 10 RBI, three stolen bases
- PR15: 10.69 (4th in MLB)
- .273 / .353 / .471
- 13 home runs
- 12 stolen bases
- 58 runs scored
- 38 RBI
- 2nd Half: .343, five home runs, 18 runs scored, 11 RBI, four stolen bases
- PR15: 9.21 (7th in MLB)
Pretty scary how similar those numbers are, right? A is Andrelton Simmons and B is Alex Bregman. The only big difference when you dive a little deeper is that Simmons has been consistently producing for pretty much the entire season, while Bregman has been a bit more streaky and pretty much disappeared in June.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Now that we are a few weeks into the second half, we are able to take a look at players and their rest of season rankings a little differently. For starters, we can see how players are starting the second half. Even though it is only a few days off (or not off, for those who participate in the Home Run Derby and the All-Star Game) and is not even technically the real halfway point of the season, the All-Star break seems to hit the reset button for some players.
Some players get off to a hot start in the second half and ride the wave for a hot August and September, while others seem to lose their momentum and start off ice cold. You could write a book on the different explanations and theories about why it happens or whether or not the Home Run Derby messes up your swing or the All-Star Game schedule itself is exhausting, but we all know as fantasy owners that we have to really pay attention to our squads coming out of the break.
Players who had unreal, otherworldly breakout first halves like Aaron Judge have come back to earth a little bit, while players we had come to rely on in previous years who had disappointing first halves like Christian Yelich have gotten hot. If those disappointing players don’t get off to a good start to the second half, though, we have to make the tough decision about whether or not it is time to move on.
And that is the other way we have to look at these rankings, with time in mind. Depending on your league and format, you probably have roughly two months left in your season and about a month and a half or less until the playoffs in leagues that have them. Carlos Gonzalez is the 600th ranked player in Razzball’s year-to-date player rater, but he is still owned in 93% of RCLs and 67% of ESPN leagues as apparently, Razznation is still waiting for CarGo to turn back into the hitter he has shown he is over the year.
And while Gonzalez has been somewhat better in the second half and has sown signs of life, at some point time is going to run out. I gave up on him weeks ago and have not looked back. In the leagues where I had him I am in first or second place and am clawing to either stay there or overtake the top team, and I just don’t have any more time to wait on him. Granted, I gave up on him when it looked like he wasn’t going to have regular playing time anymore, and that is no longer the case since the Rockies can’t stay healthy, but I don’t regret the decision. Even after showing he can still hit a little in the second half, he still only has a 0.02 PR15. That isn’t enough to make me regret the decision or convince me he is going to get hot.
For Gonzalez this season, his Hard%, FB%, and HR/FB% are all down, while his AVG, OBP, and SLG are all well below his career averages. Most troubling to me is the SLG, which is currently sitting at .341. It would not be surprising to find out that he has been playing through injuries all season because 1. He is pretty much always injured and 2. These numbers are awful. You know I love creating these graphs, so check out this one:Please, blog, may I have some more?
The fans that arrived early yesterday at Nationals Park were puzzled to find what appeared to be a show on HGTV. The newest Property Brother, Michael Blazek, the Brewers pitcher, opened a box from Ikea, and sat at home plate for six hours during the pregame, assembling something. At one point, he screamed to the heavens about being screwed, but Bryce Harper (3-for-5, 3 runs, 4 RBIs and his 26th and 27th homers) realized Blazek wasn’t saying he was screwed, he needed a screw the box was missing. Ryan Zimmerman (2-for-5, 3 RBIs and his 21st and 22nd homers) had a fix, they could use Dusty’s toothpicks to hold together Blazek’s contraption. Then Anthony Rendon (2-for-4, 2 runs and his 21st homer) had a brilliant idea. The twine holding together the Nats’ bullpen could be used to hold together Dusty’s toothpicks. Brian Goodwin (3-for-5, 2 runs, 2 RBIs and his 10th homer) and Wilmer Difo (2-for-4, 2 runs and his 3rd homer) were the first ones to the plate to see what Blazek had constructed. It was a bit shoddy in places, but it was holding up. Pulling back, we reveal that Blazek had built a baseball tee to place all his pitches on. All of these guys are either owned or are Wilmer Difo, with the exception of Brian Goodwin. He has three homers since the All-Star break, and has been cemented in the leadoff spot (for reasons only Dusty can explain). Won’t help you on average, but has a solid base of speed and power that could help in deeper leagues while he’s leading off, and especially when hitting off a tee. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Lately, Eric Hosmer has been living up to his nickname, Mini Joey Votto. Hmm, that’s a bit long for a nickname. How about Mini Joey? Oh, I know, Embryonic Kangaroo! That rolls off the tongue! *Grey puts on a terrible Aussie accent* “Embryonic Kangaroo is a fair dinkum chockers! What a ripper! I need a sickie, a slab and a barbie on the back of the ute! Or just watch that Toni Collete movie where she’s in the wheelchair singing ABBA. That gets me knickers on the soddy poop schmear!” Yesterday, the Embryonic Kangaroo went 5-for-6, 5 runs, 6 RBIs and a slam (16) and legs (5), hitting .319. He has four homers post-ASB in 50 ABs, and seems to finally have the chockers on dinkum. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
I promised Grey I wouldn’t bring up anything to try to set him off this podcast, but he still found ways to get annoyed all on his own, starting with the fact he wants to be hyped up more during the introduction. He was also confused by the one word, “endorphin” fueled texts Ralph Lifshitz often sends him, who we brought on at the midway point of the podcast to talk about the recent call-ups of Rafael Devers and Yoan Moncada, along with discussing a few pitchers on his Top 100 Starters article, including Alex Wood, Rich Hill, and Aaron Nola. Before we brought Ralph on, Grey and I dug into the J.D. Martinez and Todd Frazier trades, while also discussing the potential landing spots for the top players remaining on the trade market. Finally, we give RotoWear.com a full on 3-headed endorsement with Grey, Ralph, and I talking up our favorite t-shirts, and hope you guys get in on the fun by heading over there and entering promo code “SAGNOF” for 15% off. It’s the latest edition of the Razzball Fantasy Baseball Podcast:Please, blog, may I have some more?