Here’s what I know about projections, they’re guaranteed to be mostly wrong with a handful of unpredictable close calls. That’s probably the most accurate projection I’m about to make, which is not quite the ringing self-endorsement one my expect to read in the introduction paragraph for a 2017 fantasy baseball projections post. Let’s be honest with ourselves, projections are bullshit. They’re little more than slightly educated guesses. This is not meant to take anything away from the hard work and resulting labors of love bestowed upon us by very smart statisticians and baseball analysts, but at the end of the day, I almost feel like the projections-hungry fantasy baseball population would be better off without them. Having just written that sentence I find it extremely ironic considering I am about to release my projections in just a few moments. I think they call that the pot calling the kettle black. Maybe the pot is just racist. Did anyone ever consider that the kettle might have started the name calling? Was it Tim Lincecum’s pot?Please, blog, may I have some more?
Kevin Kiermaier might be my first sleeper of the 2017 fantasy baseball season. The funny thing (completely and irrefutably not funny) is with fantasy football starting, fantasy basketball getting underway (don’t worry, I won’t clickbait you to death) and fantasy teams just falling out of contention, players that do well in September are often forgotten by next March even though they’re performing in the month closest to the next preseason. (Guys and five girl readers, if anyone says I don’t know the calendar, you tell them that is just inaccurate. Grey knows the calendar very well. Happy July 4th!) Kiermaier has that potent mix that I crave so much. No, not Russian dressing and relish, though that is delicious. Your secret is safe with me, sauce! Instead, I’m talking about a power and speed combo. For 2017, it seems entirely possible that he gets to 25+ HRs and 30+ steals. He’s only played in 91 games this year for 12 HRs, 18 SBs, and has a repeatable HR/FB%. In fact (Grey’s got more!), with his walk rate trending up and speed, his average might be more like .275 in 2017 vs. .250 this year. It’s not all yums ‘n roses with his Slash line. He could be more Dexter Fowler (14-ish HRs, 17-20 SBs) than Correa. That’s fine, because he’ll be drafted way closer, if not after Fowler. As for why to grab him now? He’s got five homers and six steals in the last ten days. DUR! Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
“Is this Men on the Move Moving Company? Great. I have a small problem. Okay, it’s not small. But it is a problem. I have a ‘hype sleeper’ sitting here and I’m trying to move sixteen posts in front of it. You can handle the job? That’s great! Can I get hyphens between each post too? I can? Wow, you guys are lifesavers.” *comes in to see* Hype-hype-hype-hype-hype-hype-hype-post-sleep-hyper. What the hell is this?! I wanted sixteen posts in front of hype sleeper! Not this gobbledygook! So, Taijuan Walker flashed some of that post16-hype sleeper business last night — 9 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 11 Ks — to lower his ERA to 4.28. It was an easy matchup (vs. Angels), but it still showed why year after year I keep going back to Walker. He is talented. Can anyone say seventeen posts for 2017? Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Yesterday, Daniel Norris went 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 11 Ks, ERA at 3.81. Deserved better than a no decision, but he’s 23 years old, making $500,000, so who cares what he deserves? I deserve equal pay for cracking jokes about fantasy baseball for six months! *marching with a picket sign* Sign reads: BLOGGER = Better Living-wage Or Gainful Gifts, Earnings, Reimbursements *pull back to reveal I’m marching in my underwear with my dog humping my leg* Stop, Ted! I’m trying to make a point! So, Norris looked terrific, but he’s had a vexing season. Vexing, I tell ya! He was put in middle relief after a back problem that sidelined in the spring, then he returned and was almost immediately sidelined with an oblique problem. Why do we care? Well, I wrote a sleeper post about him last year, saying, “He’s a sleeper, because he’ll likely be drafted late since he appears to be a year away, and, sadly, he might not just appear to be a year away, but he might actually be a year away, though he might appear to be a year away and not be a year away. I’m the Grand Champion of putting “year away” in one sentence, by the way. Norris is a pure upside play. He could be a 4+ ERA guy that bounces between the rotation, the bullpen and the minors or a 2.75 ERA guy with truckloads of Ks.” And that’s me quoting me! I quote that, because I was exactly right (I couldn’t have been wrong since I hedged more than Sonic) and for 2017 I’m going to like Norris for the exact same reasons while being a year closer. Dot dot dot. To getting a living wage! I’m Norma Rae! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
I don’t usually mention pitchers in Coors. Even rarer still that I mention pitchers filled with Coors. Most pitchers with Coors are piss-poor. That’s for every definition of Coors and pitchers. Now, let’s look at the definition of belch. To eject gas spasmodically, to eruct. If erect is good, Coors definitely makes me eruct. A pitcher that throws gas in Coors usually has spastic eructions. Talk about slightly off sexy talk. A phone sex operator should mess with a customer and say, “I want your spastic eruction all over me.” “Did you just say you want me to belch on you?” Yesterday, Tyler Anderson went 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 5 Ks, moving his ERA to 3.04. His peripherals agree, he’s not getting by on smoke and mirrors like some children’s magician. He has a 7.5 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and a 3.41 xFIP. Not an ace, but a safe number two, similar numbers to, say, Kyle Hendricks. We need to put aside our aversion to Rockies pitchers and throw our hat in the ring for Merry Tyler Coors. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Manny Machado put up his right hand yesterday to measure it against a hand drawing every clubhouse has posted on its wall. The drawing is of Mark Whiten’s hand that once held four baseballs in it. Four baseballs for the four homers he hit in one game. In the Padres’ clubhouse, this hand has been removed because it’s just a not-so-subtle reminder of what will never be. In the Indians’ clubhouse, the hand is made into a turkey to celebrate the first Thanksgiving. In the Astros’ clubhouse, the hand has been cut out and fashioned into a t-shirt for Altuve. Imagine if Donald Trump wins the presidency and throws out a first pitch. He may never make it to the field, too distracted in the clubhouse by measuring his hands against Whiten. Yesterday, Machado came a fingernail short of the hand, hitting three homers with seven RBIs. Now has 25 homers on the year with a .307 average. Terrific, stupendous, adjective! What’s more remarkable is he does not have one steal all year. Almost as crazy, he’s only attempted three. Did he have a knee transplant this offseason with McCutchen as the donor? Machado stole 20 bases last year. To go to none? Wow, his feet definitely don’t measure up to the Rickey Henderson foot drawings in each clubhouse. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
I swear every time I write it seems like Steven Wright is on the mound and every time I’m here touting him. Despite an 8-4 record and an AL best 2.01 ERA, Mr. Wright remains the Rodney Dangerfield of pitchers, getting no respect. Just look at his DraftKings pricing over his past three starts, $12,200 two starts ago, $11,100 last time out and now tonight, he’s at $10,600. This in spite of having thrown 9 innings of 5 hit shutout baseball against the White Sox in Fenway Park last time out. I get the match-up is a little tougher and it’s on the road against the Rangers, but good grief, hasn’t the man earned it to this point? Clearly, someone at DraftKings HQ is a knuckle-ist. They hate all things knuckles, brass knuckles, knuckle heads and moose knuckles. He’s priced at the bottom of the ace pile, right before all the scrubs when he should be priced near the top. No matter, I hope his price keeps dropping and I’ll just keep on rostering him every chance I get. I suggest you do the same, or are you a knuckle-ist too? Let’s take a look at a few more bargains for the Saturday DraftKings slate:
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well reserve your spot in the 25 Team Razzball Exclusive League set to run Monday June 27th to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.Please, blog, may I have some more?
You have Eugenio Suarez as your middle infielder and are growing bored, so you check out The Replacements, and there’s so many possibilities. Anything you want, dear, is fine, fine, fine, fine, fine. Everything you say, dear, I’ll buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, goodbye Eugenio. He was merely a steward to better things. Sorry, too formal, he was a waiter in the sky. He played/was fair, don’t wanna complain. Don’t want to treat him like a bum, don’t wanna ask Cougs and Ted who I should pick up in case of a tie. Now, I like what I hear about Tim Anderson. If bein’ wrong’s a crime, I’m waiver wiring forever. If bein’ strong’s your kind of pick up, then I need help here this Tim’s got power like a feather. If bein’ afraid is a crime, put the two players side by side. Cause Tim’s at the SAGNOF party down the line. So, Tim Anderson is just steals? Well, not entirely, but that’s what he mostly is. He can also hit for a solid average. In the minors the last three years, he hit .364, .312 and .304. The Honkey Sox seem happy to try him at leadoff, and, with his batting average skills, he should stick there. The speed is real — stealing 49 bases last year in the minors. I’d absolutely take a flyer on him for speed alone. South Park isn’t the only place that has a Tim A. with wheels. Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Oh my God, Drew Smyly is more like Smyly Corleone. Every time you think you’re out, he pulls you right back in. Fredo, you went against the family, and we can’t have that. “Smyly, is that you? Why do you keep calling me?” That’s Alfredo Griffin getting annoyed with Smyly Corleone. “I made them offer at a pitch they couldn’t refuse.” Seriously, stop Smyly Corleone! So, there’s always one pitcher (sometimes more than one) that befuddles and seduces, seduces and befuddles. Justin Masterson carried the torch for a while when he was Justin Masterson: Passive Aggressive Starter. Now, Drew Smyly seems to be carrying that same damned if you do, damned if you don’t torch. Yesterday, his line was 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 baserunners with 12 Ks. On the year, his K-rate and walk rate are 10.3 and 2.2. Those are ace numbers. Unlike a lot of other big strikeout guys and actual aces, Smyly doesn’t throw very hard and seems to tire after about two starts in a row. His ERA on the year is 4.75, but that’s absurd, as in I will absurd you while you’re on waivers. But, ugh, that K-rate, that walk rate, it’s hard for me to resist and if he was dropped in your league, I could see giving him another chance, but I’d be wary of matchups because I just don’t see him overpowering most teams when he’s not working on ten days rest. He just doesn’t throw hard enough. I.e., leave the speed gun, take the cannoli. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Aw, man, now we’re left with the ominous team updates of “Giancarlo Stanton is not in lineup, no other news available.” I think I need to have a talk with him. Maybe I’ll hide in the trunk of his car and get out when he parks in his four-car garage, then go in through the kitchen that’s got the espresso machine on the left; not the kitchen with the soft-serve machine. What? I memorized his Cribs episode, I never snuck in his house. So, times are rough for Giancarlo. The Marlins score 13 runs and he’s not even playing. Holy sit! Giancarlo has the lowest batting average for a qualified hitter. Things are so bad, the other day he hit the hardest recorded ball in StatCast history, 123.9 MPH, and it was a double play. Digging through his numbers is a little bit encouraging. His BABIP is way below his career mark; he’s hitting .192, but could hit .250 the rest of the way. You don’t get him for average; it’s homers you desire like I desire him. His ground balls are through the roof. Not literally, unless we’re talking about roofs of ant farms. All he’s hitting is fly balls and ground balls. His line drive rate is poor. He usually kills fastballs. So far, he’s a negative on them. That was his bread and butter, and right now he’s toast. He’s 26 years old; this should be the prime of his beef. Instead, he’s been getting a steady diet of sliders. That’s not real beef! What I think is going on, he’s dealing with some health issues after his collision with OZUNA, he’s not spitting on sliders and waiting for fastballs. Then when he gets a fastball, he hits it hard, but gets unlucky. Can all of this be changed with me appearing mysteriously in his Snuggie? I’m not sure. The health is an unknown question mark. Eventually, he should get luckier and do damage on some fastballs, assuming he’s healthy. I wouldn’t count him out, but health has been an issue for him in the past. If I were able to get a tasty offer for someone buying him, I could see letting him be someone else’s problem. For now, I will wait in his bathroom wearing a shirt that matches his wallpaper, and try to ‘talk’ some encouragement into him. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?