Fantasy Baseball Advice

Mike Jacobs hit two home runs yesterday. Baseball Tonight’s Chris Singleton said Jacobs could hit “a lot” of home runs if he stayed healthy. You know what? Singleton has “a lot” of insight. Funny thing happened on the way to June, Mike Jacobs has thirteen home runs. More than Fielder, Tex, Morneau, Pena and Miguel Cabrera. Now I’m not saying Jacobs will be more valuable than these guys, but Jacobs is way more affordable in a trade. He’s a lot like Carlos Pena in ‘07. Both showed power, but lacked consistency and health. Poor average — check. Clouds of doubt about what they’ll be worth at the end of the year — check, check. Both playing in front of near capacity crowds (for a WNBA game) — check. Pena’s last year owners can also attest that if you own him, you’re better off holding onto him, cause you’ll never get value for him. But if you don’t own him, he’ll cost a lot less than the big boys. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Homer Bailey - About to be called up. Remember when he was their most hyped prospect? Since then, Bruce and Votto have had great starts, they acquire Volquez, and Cueto has a spot in the rotation. Don’t expect much from Bailey. He doesn’t really deserve the call-up as he hasn’t corrected his biggest flaw - wildness. He walked 29 in 66 IP at Triple-A. For Bailey’s sake, we hope the expectations are set closer to Fogg than Volquez.

Mark Prior - Shoulder surgery for Prior causing him to miss the rest of the season. In other news, taco diarrhea burns.

Tim Hudson - I was watching the game when he left with his leg injury. It didn’t look that bad, but then again I get these rashes on my leg and I’ve diagnosed myself as having The African Gong-Gong Disease and prescribed myself a wet towelie and two Little Orphan Orange Otter Pops, so I may not be the best person to ask. Leg problems will probably shelve him for a week. Best case scenario, he misses two starts and returns fine. Worst case, he returns too soon and really messes things up by favoring his injured leg. This is some Trapper John, M.D. suspense!

Brain Bannister - One run in 7+ IP. He looks like a good guy to not pick up in mixed leagues.

Troy Glaus - Hit a HR yesterday. LaRussa says Glaus is going to start hitting more home runs now that the weather is heating up. What you need to ask yourself, is this sober LaRussa talking or drunk LaRussa? I think it’s sober LaRussa.

Ian Snell - If you have him still in your lineup, I’m assuming there was a death in the family and you haven’t check your team in a while. Or you’re just dopey. Either way, my condolences.

Nate McLouth - Ended May with a .279 average. That’s a better representation than April’s .330. Maybe Karabell’s intern misread his refrigerator magnets.

Chase Utley - 20th HR/6th steal. I picked him for NL MVP, so I obviously believe. He’s also one of the few guys that I don’t have on any team, but still can’t root against. Take that schadenfreude (Word of the Day)!

Shawn Hill - Gave up an ill-timed home run to… Who am I kidding? No one cares what Shawn Hill did yesterday.

Chad Tracy - Batting fourth, hitting his second home run three days. CoJack will be out at least a week with a quad strain.

JR Towles - Batting .145 with five hits in all of May.

Bartolo Colon - Now 3-0. I still wouldn’t go near him with a three foot churro. (Only partly because waving a three foot churro near Bartolo would be similar to going to a grizzly bear observatory wearing nothing but bikini briefs made of Marshmallow Fluff…. Talk about a Fluffernutter — oofa!)

Alexei Ramirez/Alexi Casilla - Both can provide some value if you’re weak at MI. Also, if one of them books two dates on the same night, they could pull the old switcheroo and send the other guy out on one of the dates, which is a lot easier than bringing both dates to the same place and then running back and forth switching outfits ala Alex P. Keaton.

Adrian Gonzalez - I’m not really surprised he’s still hitting bombs, but I’d like to see him hit them in July and August.

Carlos Beltran - HRs in 2 straight games to boost his season total to 7. If you invested a top pick in him, you’ve got to be hoping this is the start of one of his streaks.

Johnny Cueto - I said I wouldn’t write about him again until he proved himself. Well, 5 IP of no-hit ball pulled me back in, but he’s still giving up fly balls (10) and not making enough people miss (3). Love the upside, but don’t get too excited. Worth holding onto, but don’t be afraid to bench him if the matchup is bad.

JJ Putz - Another horrendous night. 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning. Who does he think he is - Carlos Silva?

Ryan Church - Hit a home run after returning from his concussion. Talking about the concussion, Church had this to say, “I really know how Snuka felt after that Piper’s Pit.”

How is it that the more money you make, the more money is guaranteed? You don’t see anyone tying someone up with a contract to wait tables at The Cheesecake Factory for $10/hour for six months. Even if they go four weeks without spilling a tray and have what is deemed a “career month!” There’s no Olive Garden Out Clause. There’s no guaranteed Buffalo Chicken Salad Lunch Clause. There’s no free travel. Most times there’s no free parking. There’s no free translator for bus boys. Granted, the bus boys don’t conduct too many interviews where a translator might be need, but still. So why when someone has a career year are they then given $30 million? I’ve met Byrnes’s agent. He’s not that smooth. (Sorry, Mike!) I don’t think even the most novice fantasy baseball owner fell for Byrnes’s 2007. But the D-backs sure did. /rant BTW, Byrnes hit the DL yesterday.  Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday:

Jay Bruce - Not a bad… *pinkie to mouth* intro’brucing. Now if I may acronymize Bruce properly, JB looks better than JC, but not as good as JV. As long as DB continues to start him over CP, we’ll be OK.

Ian Stewart - It’s impossible to say Ian Stewart without using a Sean Connery accent. My name is Ee-yon Shtew-art. Well, Ee-yon Shtew-art started yesterday at 2nd Base. I’m pretty sure if he gets 2nd base eligibility he’s going to be better than your 2nd basemen or at least MI. Or not, but he’s definitely worth a look if he has 2nd base eligibility.

Johnny Cueto - This is the last update for JC until he pitches well again. Cueto and I are on a break. I see no reason to update everyone on his struggles. You think Kershaw’s going to be unhittable? Look at Parra, Cueto and Volquez. You got one out of three and Volquez has a WHIP and a history of wildness that says his success won’t continue. Grab Kershaw off of waivers then trade him immediately for a piece that you need.

Ian Snell - What the Snell! Snell, the Funky Homosapien wasn’t even (Snell) close on a lot of his pitches. I wouldn’t start him right now in a 32 deep NL-Only league. Snell ya later, Ian.

Sean Gallagher - Not only is he pitching better than Rich Hill (1 ER & 4H in 7 IP), but he’s a better guy in the clubhouse. Nothing loosens up a team like a mallet to a watermelon.

Tim Hudson - Rudy and I disagreed on Hudson’s worth. I say he’s a solid #2 with plus ERA, WHIP, Wins and minus Ks. Rudy calls Hudson a solid #3. Tomato-whatever, Hudson’s on a lot of my teams and he’s more valuable on my team than he is in a trade. So there.

Franklin Gutierrez - The Big FraGu hit a grand slam yesterday.

Ben Francisco - I mentioned him a bunch when he first got called up saying he could go 15/15. (And that’s me paraphrasing myself!) Now Francisco is batting third because he’s the only one consistently hitting on the Indians team. If he continues to hit and the Indians get hot, he could stay in the three hole for a while. These are all hypotheticals, of course. But you just never know. Full disclosure: I dropped Griffey from one team for Francisco.

Ryan Spilborghs - Batting fifth. Another home run. I guess you don’t need that.

Josh Hamilton - You sniff blow? Hell no, I got my whole season ahead of me, no time to be sniffin’. If Kinsler finds out, then he’ll start riffin’.

Jason Giambi - Up to ten home runs and .238. Jeremy Giambi up to no good. The Super Giambi Bros. are plumbers and they have to save the princess. And here’s Cousin Oliver Giambi playing the theme song.

Shawn Hill - Thank God (for me), Hill decided to give up nine runners in three innings against the Padres. I wouldn’t be surprised to find Hill on the DL by next week, but ya know I like him.

Daisuke Matsuzaka - Left after 4 innings (and no BB?!?!) with an injury to his side. Looks like someone skipped his pre-game calisthenics. No word yet on the severity of the injury. If Dice-K goes to the DL, Clay Buchholz will rejoin the rotation.

Matt Diaz - Die-as to the Dee-eL. Maybe he’ll return with a newfound vigor. He sure won’t be returning to my team.

AJ Burnett - Just like his mom Carol, he loves to put on a variety show. You like K’s. You got it. You like 2 out rallies started by the #9 hitter. Can do.

Ervin Santana - A gem of a game. 9 IP. 3 base runners. 7 Ks. Somehow the Angels managed to score a whooping 3 runs for the win. While his last 3 starts were ugly on the ERA, his K’s remained (19 in 3 games). I’ll take Santana over Saunders or Garland.

Tim Lincecum - Now 7-1. On the Giants. How awkward must it be between him and Zito? Barry, don’t worry about it. I’m lucky. They give me more run support. Yeah, that’s the reason. You’re so much better than me at making hitters put the ball in play.

Braden Looper - 7 ER in 4 1/3 IP. Think of a word that rhymes with Looper and it describes his performances. Betcha it isn’t super.

Julio Lugo - Was ejected arguing balls and strikes. As anyone who has ever dated a Catholic can tell you, you can’t argue your way to first.

Nick Blackburn - Not a lot of K’s (4.5/9 IP), not a lot of BB (1.5/9 IP). If you were Minnesota dreamin’ for Brad Radke, look no further.

Mariano Rivera - 22 IP, 1 W, 12 SV, 20 Ks, 1 Earned Run, 1 Walk. We’re speechless.

NY Mets - Yeah, it’s all Willie Randolph’s fault. Here’s the 5th to 8th hitters yesterday for the Mets: 1B Damion Easley, RF Fernando Tatis, C Ramon Castro, LF Nick Evans. Too bad they couldn’t work in Brian Schneider. Great GM-work Omar Minaya. Mets fans, stop riding the Yankee 2b of our childhood. Willie’s got a great ’stache! Oh, one more note. Minaya once traded Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, and Cliff Lee for Bartolo Colon. Good thing Minaya wasn’t around a couple years ago. He would’ve traded Reyes and Wright to the Orioles for Sidney Ponson and a pulled pork sandwich from Boog’s BBQ in right field, which would’ve been promptly eaten by Sidney Ponson. Case closed!

I put “Should I trade Frenchy?” into Google’s French translator. The translator steered me towards Kayak.com. So naturally, I flew to France. Stayed at a lovely hostel in the Arrondissement 4 right in the heart of the fabled Latin Quarter. The joie de vivre from the mix of students was intoxicating (and so was the wine!). When I asked a garçon at the local café about Francoeur, I talked in my worst French accent, but no strange, sideways looks. Locals embraced me and my American flag t-shirt. One Frenchman, who I asked about Francoeur, took me by the arm and whispered in my ear, “The answer is right under your nose.” I replied, “The only thing under my nose is your smell.” “No,” he explained, “The answer is in your heart.” I laughed and said, “Thank you, Yoda-like Frenchmen. Maybe when your daughter shaves her pits, we’ll meet again.” Arriving back in the States, I realized he was correct, the answer was right under my nose. I can’t find one single reason to not think Francoeur will turn around his early season power outage. So why can’t he? His BABIP is fine; Ks actually aren’t bad at all. Is he being more selective? Not really. But whatever, he never was. Is he still hitting doubles? Yup. Ground balls up? Well, they are literally up, as in his fly balls are okay. A compilation of expert projections has him hitting at least 22 more home runs. I think he gets 25 more. Since he currently sits at 3, that makes him a Buy guy. Like Sam Cooke said, “Change gonna come, nephew.” Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball hitters and pitchers to buy and sell:

BUY

Salomon Torres - My favorite to replace Gagne (BTW, put Gagne into French translator and it came back with, “Backne.” Weird!). Can he do the job? I’m not convinced but The Backne Situation™ could get worse before it gets better. If I were a betting man (and I am, just not on this particular situation), I’d say Backne gets 22 saves, Torres 12, Mota 3.

Dontrelle Willis - I liked him (very sorta, kinda, a little) coming into the season and soon he returns to the Tigers. There’s some value there. How much? Well, I’d drop a middle reliever for a flier on Willis, but not much more. I would not start him his first time out. Or second.

Ian Snell - I think his price has reached rock bottom by this point. I would definitely drop a marginal player on my team for him. I would also not start him the first time out. (And, yes, I do have a school girl crush on all NL starters.)

Juan Pierre - Okay, whose eyes just bugged out of their sockets? Yes, I’m telling you to buy Pierre. I think his value is way down and he’s still doing what you want from him. However, I would not give a lot.

Jermaine Dye - Someone dropped him in one of my ‘pert leagues last week. (I don’t understand it either.) So I picked him up and he’s hit three home runs in the last three days. Can Dye keep it up? Here, I’ll text you the answer: Y not?

Carlos Quentin - By this point, I don’t expect he’s available in any league, but even in shallow leagues he should be picked up.

Kevin Slowey - Yes, I like NL starters, but occasionally an AL-er sneaks through. Don’t drop anyone you’ll regret, but Slowey’s been a bit of a favorite of mine for a while. Last Triple-A season, he had a 107/18 K/BB ratio, that’s solid, ya’ll.

Ben Francisco - Has 15/15 upside, just needs the at-bats (like 500 of them), but he’s started off well, hitting seventh, second and fifth in the last three games respectively. He definitely will see at-bats against lefties, so in AL-Only leagues, he could be a platoon-mate for an outfielder.

Franklin Gutierrez - Honestly, I could put the entire Indians team, except Hafner, on the Buy list. They’re all underperforming.

Jason Giambi - He goes on streaks where he hits a few home runs and shows flashes of ‘roided Giambi.

Nick Swisher - I don’t think that highly of Swisher, but he’s not as bad as he’s been. Just keep expectations in line. Caveat emptor for those in Latin America. ¡Hola!

Ryan Howard - He will not hit .165 the rest of the season unless he gets traded to the Rockies and starts at shortstop and their Shortstop Injury Curse hits him.

Chris Iannetta - Iannetta will toil away/Until judgement day/You will be rewarded for the good things he did/Believe me every year/There is another one here/Don’t you see Iannetta used to be the new kid… (BTW, this reference was for maybe two readers. Don’t try and figure it out if you don’t get it. Just buy their new album next Tuesday. They’re much better than that crap movie, The Breakup, that they were featured in. Trust me.)

Dioner Navarro - He will never be spoken of again. Pick him up or not; it is after all your team.

Blake DeWitt - Elias Sports Bureau, in conjunction with Jayson Stark, announced that the third base situation for the Dodgers is the first time in the history of baseball that a guy (DeWitt) is blocking another guy (LaRoche) and they both have a capital letter three letters into their last names. (Actually, that’s completely fabricated by me, but it sounds like something the ESB would say. Here’s some more things recently overheard at the Elias Sports Bureau, “That is the first time in thirty years that someone has drank Tang at lunch while using a stapler.” “The parking lot has 17 empty spots for the first time since 2006.” “That is the first time Gary has ever said, ‘Excuse me,’ after burping.”  Anyway, DeWitt’s hot. You can do worse in all leagues. *cough* Longoria *cough*

SELL

Justin Verlander - See this morning’s post.

Tim Lincecum - Now, Papa Smurf, don’t comment later in the day that you traded Lincecum for Slowey, Giambi and box of Munchkin donuts. I like Munchkins as much as the next guy, but Lincecum is worth more than that. I’m only telling you to sell him because you probably could grab two top OFs with him. His BABIP actually tells us that he’s been unlucky, if you can believe that. So get what you need, but don’t sell him short. Stick to your guns with ‘cum! (That’s a line right out of “The Magnificent Semen,” a remake of the Japanese classic, “The Semen Samurai.”)

Chipper Jones - He’s having an unreal beginning to the season. But here’s what we know from past seasons, he’s still very injury-prone. If you can move him for Ryan Howard or Edwin Encarnacion and McClouth or… Well, you get the picture. When Chipper’s on the DL in a month, don’t forget you had an option to move him.

Rich Harden - Please trade him. I’m begging you. You have like a millisecond before the next injury comes.

Eric Hinske - These early season home runs are a nice story. (Actually, it’s not that nice… It’s not even really a story.) If you can drop Hinske for a worthwhile middle reliever, I would do it.

Mariano Rivera - I don’t think he starts throwing Livan Hernandez-type eephus pitches, but he’s just saves more or less. If someone in your league, thinks Ray’s Original Pizza is freakin’ awesome and tawks about their honeymoon to the Jersey Shore, then maybe you trade Mo to them.

Looks like someone got around to translating Karabell’s Etch-A-Sketch writings into fantasy baseball advice. Unless the rumors are true that Karabell’s gone green and started simply writing his fantasy baseball advice on toilet paper. Waste not, want not. So Karabell’s latest blog post was about how unproductive DHs currently are and how this should affect the way we look at pitchers. Could Karabaloney have hit on something when he surmised from seven unproductive DHs that league disparity isn’t what you think? Yeah, he hit on my last nerve. You have to be an ESPN Hindsighter™ to fully appreciate Karabell’s mangling of common sense, but I’ll give you a few turd nuggets to mull:

…with one month down, it’s no longer so big a gap (between leagues) that we should evaluate pitchers differently. The current league ERA in the NL is 4.07, and in the AL it’s 4.23. In 2007, it was also a small difference, 4.43 to 4.51. Maybe the designated hitter isn’t such a big deal anymore, eh?

Besides, using the word ‘eh,’ there’s about four hundred things wrong with this (you don’t draft entire staffs or entire leagues, you don’t draft every single middle man that is influencing these stats, you don’t start three of five starters in Citizen’s Bank or four of five in Coors, you draft maybe one Marlins starter, maybe two Pirates starters — I could go on, but I’m getting a tumor thinking about this.). So I’m going to focus on the most obvious:

The designated hitter isn’t such a big deal, eh? Who in their right mind would prefer to face a designated hitter instead of a pitcher? Heffin’ hey, are Karabell’s posts being written by Corky for Life Goes On? Sure, Karabell could shat on a piece of paper and win a FSWA.ORG award, but to say the DH is irrelevant is stoopid. (BTW, The FSWA has a mission statement. It’s akin to someone writing down rules for Rock, Paper, Scissors. Picture the FSWA getting together for drinks. “Hey, man, I’m not paying for your second colada!” “Figured I could sneak it through… Like I snuck Wade Boggs through in ‘87!” *Belly laughs all around.* But I digress.) In 2007 (I’m going to ignore 2008’s stats because, unlike maybe Karabell, those are the stats I drafted with. Not to mention, one month of stats isn’t indicative of anything other than someone who doesn’t know how to sort stats correctly), the fourteen AL teams placed in the top fifteen teams for OPS for the ninth placed hitter. The only NL team that snuck in was the Cardinals. Why? Because LaRussa, who’s cracked out of his mind, batted the pitcher eighth. So with current DHs sucking up the suck pot, does this mean it’s easier to face them than the NL pitcher? C’mon, only Karabell would think that nonsense. Or another way to put this, Karabell’s off his meds.

Then Karabell talked a bit about how awful some DHs have hit thus far. Again, it’s only one month, but we’ll let Karabell play with his Speak & Spell. Frank Thomas was on his list. The same Frank Thomas who Karabell pegged as a big sleeper. Dude, I’m telling you, you can’t make this shizz up. It’s like Karabell is not a real person but an amalgamation (Word of the Day) of whatever the interns are talking about while they pickup Kruk’s lunch.

Someone else who was in this list, David Ortiz. Now I’m not sure how I even missed this one back in March, but Karabell described David Ortiz as his pick for AL MVP! (Sorry for the exclamation point, but I felt it was needed.) A DH who has off-season knee surgery is who he chooses? Seriously, this is ESPN’s top fantasy analyst. Did he forget when Ortiz had his best seasons people wouldn’t vote for him because he was a DH? Did Karabell call in his pick from Tijuana after a night of ‘ludes and donkey shows? When he chose Ortiz, was he eating a Sonic Coney that caused him to hallucinate? Does his high school bully still torment him and was giving him a noogie until he chose Ortiz? Please, someone explain this to me, cause I’m about to lose it. Meanwhile, Karabell, go get your shinebox!

Martin Prado is about to become Kelly Johnson’s platoon-mate. I saw it happen to Johnson last year with Yunel grabbing at-bats and I watched Matt Diaz never get a shot against righties. This is how Bobby Cox do. Bitch and moan all you want that Johnson just has a knee injury. He’s going to sit against the majority of lefties. I can feel it coming. Even though I ranked Johnson high and liked him coming into this season, I’m glad I didn’t reach into the sixth round for him, like I saw some ‘perts do. Anyway, this is what I saw last night.

Jair Jurrjens cruised through five. Ran into some trouble and faced one too many batters. He’s looking like a decent deep league pickup. But let’s not give each other a reach around just yet, he was facing the Pirates.

Speaking of pitchers who dominated weak offenses, Oliver Perez looked like a number one. Perez looked splendiferous. (BTW, no one says or writes splendiferous — gay or straight/male or female. Is there a more useless word in the English language?)

Kendrick scored on wild pitch. How about that Twins and Angels offense? Carlos Gomez tried to bunt five times. All five went foul. Yeah, he could steal fifty. But he needs to get on base.

Was nice to see Matt Diaz hit a home run, but I’d like to see him do it against a righty. Caveat: Cox.

Corey Patterson is not going anywhere. He’s going to be a 15/35/.260 at the end of the year with 500+ at-bats.

Sticking with the Corey theme, Corey Hart stole two bases. I hope he goes for forty.

Jayson Nix hasn’t been done much to impress me thus far. He’s batting eighth and looks lost when he’s at-bat.

Andrew Miller will be good one day. Though I don’t think it’s going to be this year.

Can you guess the pitcher? 6 INN, 6 HA, 3 BBI, 3 K, 3 ER, 4.500 ERA, 1.500 WHIP — I know, you’re thinking Ian Snell pitched two days ago. It’s Gorz, and, I swear, him and Snell have the same line every start.

Hamels looked great, but…. Wait for it… Here it comes… Redding outpitched him.

Krispie Young walked three times. That’s a good sign. But the pitches weren’t close.

Mark Reynolds struckout two more times. He’s at 5 for the year. He’ll get to 200.

Brandon Lyon will be replaced sooner rather than later. Make sure you have Tony Pena.